Australian Broker Call

Citi rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Citi has revised its FY21, FY22, and FY23 operating earnings forecasts for AGL Energy by 4%, 13%, and -3% due to the Click acquisition, with $150m operating expense and $100m SIB capital expenditure cost outs also expected by FY22 and FY23 respectively.

The brokers expects these gains to be gradually outweighed by weak wholesale pricing, and reflected in its forecast profit falling -17% from FY21 to FY23.

These changes, along with other minor model revisions have resulted in Citi’s target price increasing 3% to $10.85 from $10.52.

Citi has retained its Neutral recommendation.

Target price is $10.85 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy's first-half net profit was down -27%, in line with consensus but -6% below Credit Suisse's forecast. The company's guidance of net profit between $500-$580m remains unchanged while operating income guidance has been revised to $1,585-$1,845m.

Credit Suisse notes AGL aims to reduce -$150m in operating costs in FY22 and -$100m in maintenance capex. The broker believes AGL could achieve all but -$20m in operating costs and highlights such a target would far exceed the company's 5-year track record. 

Credit Suisse retains its Underperform rating with the target price rising to $9.70 from $9.50.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Underperform (5) -

AGL Energy had already flagged write-downs at the profit line but underlying earnings missed the broker's forecast, on a combination of covid impacting on volumes, higher coal costs and lower electricity prices.

Confidence in the earnings outlook is low, the broker suggests, with technology changes, government policy and current repricing working against management’s efforts. The broker nevertheless believes FY22 may see a trough in power prices.

AGL is pivoting towards batteries and "flexible" power, but at this stage the broker retains Underperform. The target has fallen to $10.85 from an earlier $11.16.

Target price is $10.85 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Underweight (5) -

Despite AGL Energy guiding for net earnings headwinds to continue in FY22, Morgan Stanley sees some reasons to hope for FY23 earnings growth to offset the end of Liddell production over FY22-23.

The company's first half underlying profit (NPAT) was 24% ahead of the broker's estimate. Management affirmed full-year profit (NPAT) guidance and provided earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1,585-1,845m.

Management also confirmed the 100% DPS pay-out policy for FY21 and FY22.

Morgan Stanley maintains the Underweight rating and increases the target price to $10.68 from $10.44.

Target price is $10.68 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

AGL Energy’s underlying financial performance was close to Morgans expectation, with underlying earnings (EBITDA) and profit (NPAT) lower by -2%. Dividends were close to the broker’s expectation at 41cents unfranked (31cents interim and 10 cents special).

Management pointed to sustained headwinds in FY22 and a further material step down in FY22 electricity gross margin before there is the potential for an earnings recovery.

The company is reviewing its business and capital structure which the broker believes could result in a spin out of the generation fleet.

Hold rating and the target is lowered to $10.43 from $10.55.

Target price is $10.43 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -

AGL Energy reported a net profit of $317m, down -27% versus last year and -17% below Ord Minnett’s forecast. An unfranked interim dividend of 41c was declared, also missing the broker's 60c estimate.

While the interim financials clearly indicate weaker market conditions, Ord Minnett believes more is in store come with results likely to deteriorate further as hedge contracts delay the full effect of lower wholesale prices.

On the bright side, the current situation looks unsustainable to Ord Minnett and the broker expects higher wholesale prices to act as a positive catalyst for the stock. 

Accumulate rating and price target of $14 remain unchanged.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: $2.7
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Sell (5) -

UBS retains its Sell rating with the target rising to $10.10 from $10.

AGL Energy's first half net profit at $317m was down -27% versus last year and -6% below UBS's estimate. AGL will pay-out 100% of its net profits as distributions in FY21 despite the interim dividend of 41c falling short of market expectations.

The company plans to mitigate the tough operating conditions by cutting its operating costs -$150m in FY22 and capex by -$100m by FY23. UBS expects earnings to fall by more than -20% from FY21-22 due to lower electricity prices and higher gas procurement costs.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $11.30 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.94, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

Citi significantly lowered its core EPS FY21 and FY22 estimates for AMP by -16% and  -19% respectively to reflect lower AMP Capital and investment earnings offset in FY21 estimates by a more stable earnings outcome for AWM.

The broker notes that while AMP’s ambitious transformation strategy still has a long way to go, given recent events, targeted $300m of cost savings remain on track (with $120m delivered in FY20) and is an encouraging milestone.

The broker also repeats the argument that AMP Capital, which disappointed in 1H with the loss of a sizable fixed interest mandate and a bigger than expected drop in non-AuM based fees, may be better off in someone else’s hands.

AMP is targeting a return to paying dividends in FY21, but by applying its payout to Citi’s estimates suggests only around 4cps.

Neutral/High risk rating remains in place while the price target has reduced to $1.45 from $1.60

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.08
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Having initially retained an Underperform rating after a first glance at AMP's result yesterday, Macquaire has now decided to upgrade to Neutral.

The result was overshadowed by the back-down of Ares Management from any takeover intentions, which led to the big share price fall.

Macquarie sees it differently, suggesting the focus can now return to that within mangement's control. That includes an unchanged cost-out target. AMP managed to get close to its FY20 cost-out target even with additional unforeseen covid costs.

No dividend was declared but the board is committed to reinstating capital management, and a breakdown of divisional earnings has provided more clarity, and led the broker to upgrade forecasts. Target rises to $1.45 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.08
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

AMP's FY20 result was broadly in-line with consensus, though outflows in AMPCI and Wealth continued, notes Morgan Stanley.

Ares is no longer bidding for all of AMP, but is engaging on AMPCI, the asset manager. The AMP board has determined to retain Wealth, Banking and the New Zealand operations.

There is surplus capital of $521m, which AMP will use to fund the three-year transformation, explains the broker.

Industry view: In-line. Morgan Stanley is currently restricted in coverage and offers no target price or rating.

Current Price is $1.37. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Despite recording underlying profit (NPAT) broadly in-line with company-compiled consensus, the FY20 result showed continued pressures across the AMP group overall, assesses Morgans.

The Ares binding bid for 100% of AMP has not eventuated, although the two parties continue to engage on AMP Capital. The broker remains cautious on the merits of divesting this asset given its quality and potential growth profile.

No final dividend was declared in favour of maintaining balance sheet strength during the transformation period.

The analyst highlights a positive in that cumulative gross cost savings of 121m were achieved in FY20 and the company is on track for $300m of savings by FY22.

The price target is lowered to $1.49 from $1.59 and the Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.49 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.12
If AMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP delivered a net profit of $295m, -3% below UBS's forecast. AMP Captial, supposed to be the key driver of near term earnings growth, was -12.5% below the broker's forecast.

The company guided to an ongoing rebase of AMP Capital earnings with downside risk from outflows although management is confident the risk is minimal.

Led by earnings risk remaining to the downside and AMP still in discussions around a potential break-up, UBS decides to stick with its Neutral rating with the target falling to $1.45 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.08
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANZ as Overweight (1) -

Prior to first quarter trading updates by banks, Morgan Stanley feels the key areas of focus will be margin pressure, cost control, underlying credit quality trends and capital generation.

There is expected to be modest downside risk to the broker's pre-provision profit forecasts though an expectation for low loan losses and healthy CET1 ratios.

The analyst expects the margin headwinds are mortgage competition, the flat yield curve,and changes in asset mix. However, deposit re-pricing and funding mix are considered key swing factors which could limit downside risk.

The trading update for ANZ Bank is due on Thursday, February 18. Morgan Stanley forecasts first quarter cash profit from continuing operations of around $1,409m and a "decrease" in revenue, driven by a lower margin.

Finally, the broker expects an impairment charge of -$300m.

The Overweight rating and target of $26.20 remain in place. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $26.20 Current Price is $24.89 Difference: $1.31
If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.06, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades its rating to Neutral from Sell.

ASX has increased guidance for both capex and costs, a development that had already been anticipated by Citi. Costs grew 8% in the first half but Citi still expects cost growth to moderate from here while expecting higher revenue.

Issuer services revenue grew strongly by 44% in the first half, notes the broker, mainly reflecting the strong growth in retail broking accounts and activity. Citi expects momentum to soften from here.

With all the main negatives now known, the broker upgrades its earnings forecasts for FY21-23.

Target price rises to $70 from $68.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ASX as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform with a target price of $71.

ASX's first-half net profit was 3% above Credit Suisse's forecast. ASX's latest result demonstrates the resilience of its business, suggests the broker, with earnings down only -3% versus last year.

Going ahead, the broker believes ASX's earnings will contract by -5-10% in FY21 and a further -0-5% in FY22 led by softening of certain revenue lines like capital raisings supporting issuer services and elevated cash equities activity.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: $0.95
If ASX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX reported a 3% beat on profit against the broker's forecast, driven by higher revenues from issuer services. But FY21 expense and capex numbers have been increased, continuing the run of ever-increasing costs, the broker notes.

Looking ahead management sees ongoing pressure on interest rate trading in the zero-interest climate, buoyant equities trading, but not as buoyant as FY20, and healthy IPO activity.

On the balance the broker retains Neutral, cutting its target to $67.00 from $70.50 on higher costs.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: minus $3.05 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

After ASX's first half report, Morgan Stanley lifts forecast earnings by 4-6% for FY21-23 on better group revenues (save for Futures) and a stronger market recovery. Additionally, interest income was better than expected by the analyst, partly offset by higher costs.

FY21 capex guidance rose by $20m to $110-$115m and opex is also rising, which suppresses some of the company's operational leverage, explains the broker. 

The analyst highlights some positives including forecast modest fees increases for the second half and better-than-expected Listing & Issuer Services. 

Equal-weight. Target rises to $75.80 from $72.90. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $75.80 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: $5.75
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Hold (3) -

ASX reported a first half underlying profit (NPAT), which was broadly in-line with Morgans estimate, as growth was seen across the majority of business units on the pcp.

The analyst highlights cash market trading revenue was up around 13% and Issuer Services revenue was up 43% on the pcp, due to the higher market turnover.

The Derivatives and OTC Markets business continues to underperform with first half revenue down around -8% on the pcp, driven by subdued activity in equity options.

Upwardly revised expense growth and capex indicate to the broker continued elevated investment/IT spend in the near term.

The analyst makes minor forecast EPS changes and the price target falls to $65.59 from $67.37. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $65.59 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: minus $4.46 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Hold (3) -

ASX's first-half net profit was in line with Ord Minnett’s forecast.

On the flip side, the broker notes pressures continue for the market operator with weak derivatives revenue and low-interest income along with higher expenses and capital expenditure.

Hold rating with the target price reducing to $70.38 from $73.78.

Target price is $70.38 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: $0.33
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

ASX's first-half net profit was 2.6% above UBS's $235.6m forecast with revenue 2.3% above the broker's forecast driven by listings and cash market revenues.

Partially offsetting this were higher expenses while net interest income fell -40% and was -3.5% below UBS's estimate. An interim dividend of 112.4c was declared, 2.6% above the broker's forecast.

While the result beat forecasts, UBS believes the outlook remains low growth since there is not enough in there to support a stock trading at a circa 30% P/E premium to the market.

UBS retains its Sell rating with a target of $66.

Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $70.05 Difference: minus $4.05 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $69.40, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank will release its first half result on February 15, 2021.

Credit Suisse expects $127.4m in cash earnings, -26% below the consensus of $173.1. The broker also expects to see strong lending growth with flat net interest margins.

Credit Suisse maintains a Neutral rating and $7 target.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $9.58 Difference: minus $2.58 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BEN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes banks will outperform the ASX200 in 2021 given domestic economic trends, a cyclical earnings recovery and healthy balance sheets. In addition, there is considered a lower overall risk profile and ongoing sector rotation.

The broker favours those banks with the most earnings and dividend leverage to a recovery and potential upside to operating performance. Also, additional relatively low investor expectations and more attractive valuations are considered important factors.

Morgan Stanley has increased earnings and EPS estimates due to modest upgrades to housing loan growth forecasts for all
banks, and material reductions in impairment charges for the majors.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Underweight by the broker due to a narrow business mix, with pressure on retail bank profitability. Also, it's considered there are downside risks to margins as the bank pursues a new growth strategy.

The broker upgrades the EPS estimates for FY21-23 by 0%, 1% and 1.5%, respectively.

Underweight retained. Target is raised to $8.60 from $7.70. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $9.58 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.89, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOQ as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes banks will outperform the ASX200 in 2021 given domestic economic trends, a cyclical earnings recovery and healthy balance sheets. In addition, there is considered a lower overall risk profile and ongoing sector rotation.

The broker favours those banks with the most earnings and dividend leverage to a recovery and potential upside to operating performance. Also, additional relatively low investor expectations and more attractive valuations are considered important factors.

Morgan Stanley has increased earnings and EPS estimates due to modest upgrades to housing loan growth forecasts for all
banks, and material reductions in impairment charges for the majors.

Bank Of Queensland is the broker's preferred regional bank in view of a clear strategy and roadmap for improved operating performance and niche growth options.There is also considered to be strong capital and some valuation support.

The broker upgrades the EPS estimates for FY21-23 by 0.5%.

Equal-weight rating has been retained. Target rises to $8.60 from $7.30. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.25 Difference: $0.35
If BOQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Breville Group will post its first-half results on February 16.

While no guidance was given for the first half, the group guided to FY21 operating income of $128-132m. Credit Suisse anticipates a solid sales result supported by elevated spending on household goods.

Neutral rating is retained with the target price rising to $29.14 from $27.72.

Target price is $29.14 Current Price is $29.96 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.04, suggesting downside of -6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Commonwealth Bank's result met the broker's expectations. Despite challenging operating conditions, CBA continued to outperform
peers, capitalising on missteps of others and growing share, the broker notes.

The bank's capital position and provisioning remain strong, and while rising expenses will dsappoint the market, the broker suggests CBA's presistent valuation premium provides management with a mandate to continue to invest.

CBA may be the best of the bunch, but also valued such that peers offer better leverage to economic recovery in the broker's view. Target rises to $80 from $78, Underperform retained.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $87.05 Difference: minus $7.05 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.50, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes stronger housing and business loan growth were the highlights of Commonwealth Bank's first half. Also, a combination of standard variable rate repricing, lower funding costs and a better funding mix offset the impact of lower rates and front book competition.

The broker expects the margin to fall by circa -7bps in FY21 and just circa -3bps in FY22 with revenue up circa 1% and circa 2.5%.

Expenses were up more than 2% in the first half (year on year) and the broker reckons flat costs in the medium term is its best-case scenario.

The Underweight rating is unchanged with the target price lifting to $79 from $78.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $87.05 Difference: minus $8.05 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $80.50, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQE as Accumulate (2) -

The first half operating earnings of Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT were well ahead of Ord Minnett’s estimate but -5.9% below last year. An interim distribution of 7.5c was declared.

Ord Minnett believes the REIT will debt-fund acquisitions over the next 12 months which would drive strong double-digit earnings growth in FY22 and increase the dividend yield to 6%. 

Accumulate rating is unchanged with a target of $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.36
If CQE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DOW as Buy (1) -

Citi's inclusion of Downer EDI's announced asset sales in its model leads to operating income downgrades of -12%-23% over FY21-23. 

The broker estimates cash flow for urban services for the first half amounted to $171m and argues if Downer can continue to demonstrate resilience in this segment's earnings, a cash flow yield of 7% is plausible.

Better cash conversion along with an outlook of improving top-line and margins underpins Citi's investment thesis of a highly cash generative urban services business.

Citi retains its Buy rating with the target price increased to $6.10 from $5.93.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.69
If DOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes Downer EDI posted a "decent" operating result along with improved cash flow and reinstatement of the dividend. Looking at the numbers, the broker believes the company's turnaround is broadly on track.

No explicit guidance was provided which Credit Suisse believes is understandable given the climate. Downer is expected to complete asset sales worth circa $525m in this half.

Credit Suisse reiterates its Outperform rating with the target rising to $5.95 from $4.70.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.54
If DOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

It was a pleasing result from Downer EDI, the broker suggests, beating expectation, and the resumption of the dividend is a positive signal. Covid headwinds continue to linger, but should progressively ease, the broker believes.

The company made good progress on asset sales late last year and the proceeds will flow in the second half. Lower net debt and greater free cash flow generation lead to a target increase to $6.10 from $5.62. An undemanding valuation supports the Outperform rating.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.69
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DOW as Overweight (1) -

Downer EDI delivered lower first half earnings than Morgan Stanley expected, driven by a lower margin in transport and mining. The broker highlights management reinstated the dividend at 9 cents and announced share buybacks during 2021 are under consideration.

The analyst has included the impact of mining divestments in forecasts, which along with lower first half earnings reduces profit (NPATA) estimates by -11%, -15% and -21% for FY21,FY22 and FY23, respectively.

Morgan Stanley believes the company appears to be delivering on strategy and mining divestments will reduce capital intensity, thereby improving prospects for higher capital returns.

Target is increased to $6.20 from $5.60. Overweight. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.79
If DOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Hold (3) -

Downer EDI reported a net profit before amortisation of $119.1m, beating Ord Minnett’s estimate of 106.9m. Operating income was also more than expected although revenue missed the mark. An unfranked interim dividend of 9c was declared, higher than the estimated 7c.

Ord Minnett is pleased with the result insofar as earnings of most divisions were in line but notes the core transport division missed its forecast while the non-core hospitality segment showed a considerable turnaround.

Downer is undergoing a significant transformation with future asset sales likely to lead to circa $800m of cash, highlights the broker, paving the way for increased dividends.

Upside for this stock could come from the successful execution of its urban services strategy, suggests Ord Minnett.

Hold recommendation is maintained with the target price rising to $5.40 from $5.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Buy (1) -

Downer EDI delivered a solid result, observes UBS, with the key highlight being the operating cash flow conversion of 97%. This implies the construction project execution issues are no longer affecting Downer's more stable urban services cash generation, suggests UBS.

Downer reinstated the interim dividend at 9c, ahead of the broker's 6.6c and also reiterated it will lift the pay-out ratio to 60-70% post the divestment of its mining and laundries assets.

UBS thinks Downer's restructuring will lead to lower leverage and improved cash flow generation and help the company consider capital management initiatives and a higher dividend pay-out ratio.

The broker retains a Buy rating with the target falling to $6.20 from $6.30.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: $0.79
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.99, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EOF as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ecofibre's first-half revenue at $14.7m was in line with Ord Minnett's estimate, although the operating loss was more than expected.

The company has revised its guidance from “break-even” to expecting a loss of circa -$7m in FY21 due to the lack a meaningful near-term recovery in revenue.

Ord Minnett remains convinced on the long-term potential of CBD and Hemp and views Ecofibre as a key player in the development of the industry.

Even then, with trading severely curtailed in the US and uncertainty on the timing of the recovery, Ord Minnett downgrades its recommendation to a Hold from Buy with the target price reducing to $1.65 from $2.26.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.63 Difference: $0.02
If EOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse believes GrainCorp's FY21 guidance puts to rest some arguments with respect to crop leverage under the new crop production contract. Carry out for FY21 is guided to 2.5-3.5mt, implying a circa 0.5-1mt boost to FY22 export volume due to carry-out.

Net profit is guided to be $60-85m versus the broker's $80m forecast. Credit Suisse thinks normalisation of inventory will likely lead to the core net debt rising to $130m in the first half.

Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform with the target price rising to $5.06 from $5.03.

Target price is $5.06 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.35
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

GrainCorp provided fresh guidance at its AGM of $60-85m FY21 profit, which is 11-57% higher than the broker's earlier forecast.

Receivals have tracked ahead of the broker's expectations, and exports are making a resurgence, with port bookings nearing capacity through to September.

It is the first time GrainCorp has provided guidance in the past three AGMs. The broker expects earnings momentum to continue into FY22, supported by a grain carry-in benefit and a solid outlook for the processing business and other growth options.

Outperform retained, target rises to $5.80 from $5.35.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $1.09
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GNC as Add (1) -

In what Morgans considers extremely strong FY21 guidance, GrainCorp is reaping the combined benefits of operational initiatives and the largest east coast winter grain crops on record. 

The broker makes large upgrades to FY21 forecasts after recent weather conditions provided a positive backdrop for planting of the 2021/22 winter crop. In addition, FY22 earnings are considered to benefit from materially higher carry-over grain. 

The next catalyst for the stock is the ABARES Crop Report on 16 February which is likely to be upgraded, predicts the analyst.

Add rating. The target increases to $5.52 from $4.71.

Target price is $5.52 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.81
If GNC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp's AGM update was strong, observes UBS, with the company guiding to FY21 operating income of $230-270m and net profit of $60-85m. Higher than expected grain receivals and grain exports are the key drivers of the guidance beat.

While lifting its operating income forecast for FY21 by 9%, UBS decides to leave FY22 forecasts intact with risks skewed to the upside pending visibility around the next winter crop. 

Target rises to $5.30 from $5.15. Buy retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.71 Difference: $0.59
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GUD as Buy (1) -

Citi thinks covid induced consumer mobility changes and acquisitions will likely mask GUD Holdings' key challenges including the concentration of revenue on a limited number of customers and exposure to internal combustion engines.

The company guided to an operating income of $95-$100m in FY21 which Citi considers to be conservative. Also, the broker believes FY22 will be a strong year with operating income expected to grow by 17% driven by fx benefits.

Citi has retained its Buy rating with the target price increasing to $14.90 from $14.40.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $1.95
If GUD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

GUD Holdings posted a strong interim result, observes Credit Suisse, that reflects both industry tailwinds and some finality around the positioning of the company's key auto brands.

With various factors hinting that used car numbers and utilisation will settle at higher levels than pre-covid, the broker believes GUD Holdings offers a well-priced entry point to this thematic.

Also, the growth profile can still be bolstered by further M&A activity, asserts Credit Suisse with the balance sheet still conservatively geared.

Outperform rating with the target rising to $14 from $13.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $1.05
If GUD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GUD as Outperform (1) -

GUD Holdings increased first half earnings year on year by 18%, 12% ahead of the broker. The result was driven by strong operating leverage in Automotive, featuring robust volumes, selective price increases and cost discipline, the broker notes.

Davey Water Products slightly underperformed due to covid impacts. Management sees medium term growth potential and has no plan to divest.

The broker believes strong auto market conditions can continue into the second half, and acquisitions will make their mark in FY22. Margins should benefit from the rolling off of hedges. Outperform retained, target rises to $14.15 from $13.50.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $1.2
If GUD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GUD as Hold (3) -

GUD Holdings' reported a first-half net profit of $32.7m versus Ord Minnett’s estimated $31.4m. The company declared a fully franked interim dividend of 25c, higher than what the broker expected (23c).

Ord Minnett notes this was a strong result even after adjusting for restructuring charges and JobKeeper payments. FY21 earnings guidance by GUD is thought of as conservative by the broker given the continued customer demand tailwinds.

The Hold rating is maintained with the target price rising to $12.50 from $12 on the expectation of earnings upgrades from increased demand in the automotive business.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If GUD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes GUD Holdings' first-half result was higher than expected with revenue up 11% and operating income up 18%. 

The key driver of the beat was a robust auto performance with strong volume leverage offsetting the negative mix and operating cost inflation, highlights the broker. 

GUD noted a strong January, observes UBS, that coupled with acquisition & fx tailwinds leaves the company well-positioned.

The broker considers GUD Holdings to be a well-run business with a market-leading auto portfolio but is cautious on longer-term pricing dynamics.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $13 from $12.50.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $0.05
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Homeco Daily Needs is a REIT focussed on neighbourhood and large format retail assets with a NSW/Victoria focus, and 95% metro.

Health services represent 19% of the tenant base, exposure to specialty retailers is low (14%) and there is no discount department store exposure. Occupancy is 96.9%, weighted average lease expiry is 8.2 years and the broker forecasts a 6.1% yield in FY22.

The broker initiates coverage with an Outperform rating and $1.42 target.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.09
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

The US Department of Commerce (DOC) has finalised the countervailing duty rates on Moroccan and Russian DAP manufacturers.

While this might result in higher DAP exports to US from Incitec Pivot, Citi doesn’t expect this final ruling to impact the DAP pricing on the back of strong supply/demand and rerouting trade flows.

DAP prices are up 26% YTD FY21, which provides 4% upside risk to Citi’s FY21 operating earnings estimates.

The average YTD FY21 DAP price has been US$383/mt, which is 26% higher on FY20 realised prices and 3% ahead of Citi’s FY21 price assumption of US$372/mt.

This alone translates to $16m (4%) of operating earnings upside for Citi’s FY21 earnings if the average price for the year stays at US$383/mt. (Spot US$501/mt).

Neutral rating remains in place with a target of $2.43.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Overweight (1) -

After meeting the company, Morgan Stanley has gained confidence on fertiliser price strength that should support FY21 forecast earnings for Incitec Pivot, and provide greater clarity on US coal end markets.

The broker highlights some key points from the meeting including a return to more normal seasonal conditions in Australia is creating tightness in the fertiliser market and Asia-Pacific explosives volumes are improving.

Separately, the analyst looks at Australian coal exports which fell -5% in January, driven by declines in thermal coal, while Indonesian coal exports declined -2%. It's considered demand for coking coal remains resilient despite import restrictions from China.

A key driver of Incitec Pivot's weakness in FY20 was Indonesian thermal coal, where mining shutdowns caused significant declines in explosives demand, explains the broker.

The analyst relays that pandemic-related constraints have now eased and Indonesia has increased its coal exports to China by 14% year-on-year in the three months to January.

Morgan Stanley believes structural drivers appear more favourable for coking coal. As the company is overweight metallurgical coal it's considered well placed to ride out near-term uncertainty in coal markets. 

Rating is Overweight. The target is $3.15. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.49
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.75, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects James Hardie to contribute less than the typical 35% of operating cash flow into the asbestos fund from FY23. While the initial benefit is considered likely to be modest, it will increase over time and represents a significant milestone.

Some independent data reveals total claims received by the asbestos fund were -9% below actuarial estimates, supports the broker's belief. These figures were gleaned from the nine months to December, 2020.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target of $44. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $40.73 Difference: $3.27
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.60, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JHX as Accumulate (2) -

Following James Hardie Industries' third-quarter result, the key question for Ord Minnett is what will be the operating income margin for the company's North America fibre cement (NAFC) division in FY22.

This is important since a 1-percentage-point change in this assumption moves the broker's FY22 earnings forecast by 3.5%.

Management would provide new margin targets at its FY21 result in May and for now, the broker sets its FY22 margin estimate at 27.5%. 

Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate rating with a target price of $45.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $40.73 Difference: $4.27
If JHX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.60, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

Magellan Financial Group reported a first-half net profit of $213m, down -4% versus the second half of FY20 but 4% above Credit Suisse's forecast. The broker considers the result relatively clean with revenues in line with expectations.

Magellan Financial's market update showed funds inflows have remained strong, but the overall fund's performance proved weaker-than-anticipated, comment analysts at Credit Suisse.

An analysis of the company's history shows during periods of underperformance, the group's flows have fared reasonably well, observes the broker. 

As a result, the broker believes Magellan can remain in inflow despite weaker fund performance while expecting a slowdown in inflows in the last quarter of FY21 on the back of weaker performance.

Neutral rating with the target falling to $53 from $55.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $4.15
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Outperform (1) -

Magellan Financial Group's result slightly beat the broker, but it wasn't all smooth sailing. While expenses were lower, and FY21 funds management expenses are expected to come in at the lower end of guidance, equity accounting provides a near term headwind.

Equity-accounted investments provided a loss, which the broker assumes was mostly down to the Barrenjoey acquisition. Should Barrenjoey remain loss making for an extended period of time and require additional capital, this would weigh on sentiment.

But not for some time, the broker notes. There is a downside risk to earnings forecasts but the recent de-rating provides an attractive entry point, the broker believes. Outperform retained, target slips to $52 from $53.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $3.15
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Magellan Financial Group's adjusted profit beat Morgan Stanley's estimate by 8% on lower costs. The analyst warns recent investment returns present risk to flows.

Highlights for the broker include first half inflows of $3.7bn, skewed to the Infra strategy with $2.1bn. Additionally, fund manager costs are forecast to be at lower end of the $110-115m target.

The analyst continues to believe earnings could be more volatile in the next few years than in the past three, given the need to support growth in Barrenjoey and launching into unlisted principal investments.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating and lowers the target to $39.60 from $41.20. Industry view: In-line. 

Target price is $39.60 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: minus $9.25 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Add (1) -

Magellan Financial Group reported underlying first half profit (NPAT) slightly ahead of Morgans forecast, as management fees rose 8% on the previous corresponding period. An interim dividend of 97.1 cents was declared.

Management fee growth of 8% was broadly in-line with average funds under management (FUM), notes the analyst.

Morgans considers market direction and performance fees are the near-term forecast swing factors, with long-term growth supported by a pipeline of new products and optionality from a strong balance sheet and principal investments.

Add rating. The target is decreased to $58.26 from $59.05

Target price is $58.26 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $9.41
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -

With key metrics like funds under management pre-announced, UBS notes the result was slightly ahead reflecting fairly resilient fee margins.

The broker highlights Magellan's outlook contains many moving parts including a retirement product launch that is months away from regulatory approval and risks around fee compression with the introduction of lower cost products. 

The target remains unchanged at $52 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $3.15
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $54.55, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MGR as Hold (3) -

Upon first glance, Ord Minnett reports Mirvac's interim financials have slightly beaten its forecasts, albeit with the 4.8c in declared dividend smack bang in-line.

The broker comments operationally the result looks solid, while the balance sheet is well positioned. The negative surprise is embedded inside management's guidance for the full year, which proved below forecast for both EPS and DPS.

Ord Minnett's conclusion: "We need to dig into this in more detail".

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.24
If MGR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

At a post-result round table Mineral Resources highlighted forecast iron ore production growth to over 50mt by FY25 from 10mt in FY20 and 30%pa average growth targeted for Mining Services over the next three years.

With the lithium outlook improving the company has plenty of options, including the restart of Wodgina, says the broker.

Macquarie makes no further forecast changes. Outperform and $47.50 target retained.

Target price is $47.50 Current Price is $36.72 Difference: $10.78
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.08, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Following the release of its interim FY21 result, Mineral Resources stated the mining services business remains core to the company. The company is expecting the outcome of key approvals for Ashburton trans-shipping operation after the Western Australia state election.

The company strategy going ahead is building the downstream lithium capacity and Mineral Resources intends to convert all spodumene to hydroxide to capture higher returns.

The broker retains a Buy rating with a target of $44.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $36.72 Difference: $7.28
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $40.08, suggesting upside of 11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to first quarter trading updates by banks, Morgan Stanley feels the key areas of focus will be margin pressure, cost control, underlying credit quality trends and capital generation.

There is expected to be modest downside risk to the broker's pre-provision profit forecasts though an expectation for low loan losses and healthy CET1 ratios.

The analyst expects the margin headwinds are mortgage competition, the flat yield curve,and changes in asset mix. However, deposit re-pricing and funding mix are considered key swing factors which could limit downside risk.

The trading update for National Australia Bank is due on Tuesday, February 16 and the broker forecasts cash earnings (ex notable items) to increase around 23% to approximately $1.39bn.

The analyst forecasts revenue (ex notable items) to fall around -2.5%, reflecting lower treasury and markets income and the margin to be "slightly down" from 1.77% in the second half of 2020.

The rating of Equal-weight and target of $24.50 are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $25.05 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $24.68, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCM as Buy (1) -

First half gold production of 1.04Moz at all-in costs (AISC) of US$974/oz by Newcrest Mining generated net profit of US$553m which was 16% higher than Citi’s estimated US$475m and up 98% on the weak 1H20 result.

Citi notes it’s now up to Newcrest Mining to prove that Lihir can start hitting its targets.

In further improvements to recovery, Citi is modeling a ramp up to 81% during FY2, or the inclusion of 14A resources of 400-600koz gold in FY23-25 are upside to the broker’s numbers.

Due to Lihir revisions, revising up moly plant revenues at Cadia and extending the life of the underground at Telfer, Citi has lifted its FY21 net profit estimate by 3-9%.

Citi’s Buy rating is maintained, and the price target increases to $32 from $31.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $5.78
If NCM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NCM as Outperform (1) -

Newcrest Mining beat Credit Suisse's forecasts with respect to first-half net profit result with cash flow of US$439m setting a new record for the December half. A dividend of US15c versus the broker's expected US7.5c was announced.

The broker is pleased with the result noting the solid earnings and strong flows. FY21 guidance is unchanged and the company expects a stronger second half led by higher production at the Cadia/Lihir operations. 

Outperform retained. Target rises to $33.90 from $33.20.

Target price is $33.90 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $7.68
If NCM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCM as Neutral (3) -

Newcrest's headline result beat the broker but largely due to one-off items. Underlying earnings were in line.

While an increase to the dividend payout ratio seems positive, the broker does not see free cash flow as actually driving higher dividends by quantum in the near term.

A Lihir optimisation study offers up a number of potential positives but in the broker's view it trades capex for higher operational risk. Neutral and $28 target retained.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $1.78
If NCM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley considers Lihir is looking considerably better after a substantial upgrade to production was flagged at Newcrest Mining's first half profit release.

The broker highlights FY21 gold and costs came in at the top end of guidance. The interim dividend of 15c was 7.5c ahead of the analyst's estimate. Underlying profit (NPAT) also beat the broker's estimate by 5% and free cash flow beat by 13%.

Management expects gold production towards the upper end of the guidance range, driven by Cadia and Telfer.

Overweight rating maintained with a target price of $31.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $31.30 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $5.08
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NCM as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans regards strong cash flow and progress towards operational growth at Lihir and Cadia as positives for Newcrest Mining after first half results were released.

The company is on track for mid-point FY21 guidance for gold and copper production, predicts the broker.

The analyst highlights guidance for costs was revised to the top of the range for FY21, on the back of a higher Australian dollar and additional covid-19 costs.

Underlying profit (NPAT) was up 98% from the first half FY20 and broadly in-line with consensus, driven by an increase in the gold and copper price, assesses Morgans.

The broker lifts the target price to $29.98 from $27.87, driven by the longer-term growth and strategy spelt out by management for both Lihir and Cadia. The rating is lifted to Add from Hold.

Target price is $29.98 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $3.76
If NCM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Newcrest Mining's first-half net profit was above Ord Minnett’s forecast with a fully franked interim dividend of US15c. The net debt of US$330m also beat Ord Minnett's expectation aided by lighter capital expenditure.

In the near term, the focus remains on the company's Lihir operations and delivery on plans to get to 1mozpa. In the medium-longer term, group production of 2mozpa is expected which, notes the broker, requires timely delivery of projects including Havieron and Red Chris.

Accumulate rating retained with a target price of $35.50.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $9.28
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NCM as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights some key positives of Newcrest Mining's interim result including a better than expected Lihir update, a new dividend policy with greater returns over time and approval of the Red Chris project by the board.

The broker believes the market is not pricing in Newcrest’s key growth projects for which progress is being made.

UBS maintains its Buy rating with the target rising to $33.20 from $32.50.

Target price is $33.20 Current Price is $26.22 Difference: $6.98
If NCM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.98, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEA as Buy (1) -

Citi has quickly responded to the short sellers attack with a rather stoic Buy, but with a slightly lower price target; $3 instead of $3.15.

In response to the accusations made by the short seller, Citi's update is probably best summed up as: tell us something new. The analysts have had discussions with some of the customers in the US and they seem very happy with the Nearmap service provided.

While FX is a headwind, the analysts expect the interim result to show positive momentum with regards to key metrics. Forecasts have been sliced because of the stronger AUD.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.16 Difference: $0.84
If NEA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 31.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley looks at Australian coal exports which fell -5% in January, driven by declines in thermal coal, while Indonesian coal exports declined -2%. It's considered demand for coking coal remains resilient despite import restrictions from China.

A key driver of Orica's weakness in FY20 was Indonesian thermal coal, where mining shutdowns caused significant declines in explosives demand, explains the broker.

The analyst relays that pandemic-related constraints have now eased and Indonesia has increased its coal exports to China by 14% year-on-year in the three months to January.

Equal-weight and $16.50 target are maintained. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.42 Difference: $1.08
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.04, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

The value of REA Group's 20% stake in US real estate portal Move Inc is lifted to $10-$14 per share by Morgan Stanley. This adds to the broker's already bullish thesis for REA Group, based on a strong recovery in 2021 and 2022.

Apart from positive news from channel checks, the analyst can now see evidence via News Corp's ((NWS)) financial results that Move Inc's second quarter revenues increased 28% on the pcp.

Overweight rating. Target is increased to $175 from $170. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $155.40 Difference: $19.6
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $150.12, suggesting downside of -4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SHL as Hold (3) -

Sonic Healthcare will report its first-half FY21 result on February 18.

Ord Minnett expects an exceptional result due to a dramatic rise in covid testing volumes in Germany, the UK and the US in the last few months of 2020. An even larger contribution from covid testing is likely in the second half although testing is expected to slow down as vaccines are rolled out.

The broker increases its earnings estimates by 21% in FY20 and 6% in FY21 to reflect the extension of covid test reimbursement in the US. 

Hold rating with the target rising to $35.50 from $34.30.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $34.31 Difference: $1.19
If SHL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.48, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi has upgraded Transurban Group to Neutral from Sell following the release of an interim report that proved slightly above expectations, even though the analysts also suggest it missed market consensus by some -5% at the operational (EBITDA) level.

The upgrade was more so inspired by the -20% share price underperformance over the past three months, explain the analysts.

Three key factors are preventing Citi from lifting the rating to a Buy: the valuation remains above long term average, with leverage high and potential downside risks medium term from increased work-from-home (which impacts on the traffic on toll roads).

Citi's target price has lifted to $13.35 from $12.83.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $0.08
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TCL as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform with the target price increasing to $13 from $12.6.

Transurban Group's first-half result showed toll revenue at $1,165m, -3% below Credit Suisse's forecast of $1,204m. Proportional operating income for the half came in at $840m, -11% below the broker's forecast. Credit Suisse notes the miss was driven by weak traffic performance in Melbourne, and lower average dynamic toll pricing in the US Express Lanes.

FY21 distribution estimates have been raised by the broker in FY21 to 33.8c with higher numbers expected in FY22 and FY23 due to lower financing costs after the Chesapeake proceeds are received.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Transurban's -41% fall in earnings was worse than expected, reflecting ongoing covid restrictions. This is particularly the case in the US, but Citylink (Melbourne) also fell short. Ongoing scares through January weighed on Australian roads, the broker notes.

February has seen some bounce-back, but restrictions are ever changing implying downside risk. A recovery in the US will take longer, the broker suggests.

The broker nonetheless notes the current share price reflects the bond value of the stock but little option value for growth projects and economic recovery. Outperform retained, target falls to $14.83 from $15.06.

Target price is $14.83 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $1.56
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Transurban Group's first half proportional  earnings (EBITDA) were 1% above Morgan Stanley's estimate and -5% below consensus.

The first half dividend of 15 cents (announced in December 2020) has 114% free cash cover, calculates the broker. 

Management provided updates on several areas including headroom for future capital releases are around $2b between FY22-25 and West Gate Tunnel completion is deferred beyond 2023.

Equal-weight and target of $14.50 retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $1.23
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -

Travel restrictions continue to impact Transurban Group in the first half, with an -18% decline on the pcp. The greatest impact has been on Melbourne’s Citylink, the US Express Lanes and the airport-related roads.

The earnings (EBITDA) decline of -23% was in-line with Morgans forecast, with earnings supported by resilience of truck traffic, toll escalation, and cost control.

The DPS was pre-released at 15 cents, down -52% on the pcp. The broker now forecasts 35.5 cents for FY21 implying 2.7% yield at current prices (around $13.27).

The December rebound to all-time daily traffic highs in Sydney and Brisbane, as well as the trend strength of the regional economies, supports the analyst’s optimism.

Hold rating. The target price is reduced to $13.87 from $14.

Target price is $13.87 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $0.6
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -

Transurban Group's first-half operating earnings at $840m are ahead of Ord Minnett’s $824m forecast. Free cash flow also beat expectations and the group declared 15c as interim distribution.

Ord Minnett highlights traffic growth continues to improve modestly and believes the medium-term outlook is sound.

Transurban is funding -$2bn of development expenditure in FY21-22 and Ord Minnett believes these development completions will be positive for cash flows and drive strong growth. 

The Buy rating remains unchanged with the target falling to $16 from $16.50.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $2.73
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Transurban Group's first-half cashflow result was down -35%, heavily impacted by the Melbourne lockdown and Washington.

The broker has cut its FY21 cash flow forecast by -16% with earnings forecast to reduce to $-0.01 to take into account weaker December and January traffic trends.

There was also bad news in the form of expected delays to the group's WestGate Tunnel to post-2023, driving a -10% cut to UBS's FY24 cash flow estimates. 

Buy rating with the target falling to $14.65 from $15.50.

Target price is $14.65 Current Price is $13.27 Difference: $1.38
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.31, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra Corp's first-half numbers are marginally lower than Credit Suisse's estimates at the operating income and revenue levels. 

The company has tightened its FY21 operating income guidance, now expected to be $6.6-6.9bn versus $6.5-7.0bn indicating reasonable visibility for the next few months, suggests the broker.

TowerCo's revenue growth was good during the half at 6.5%, notes Credit Suisse, which supports the broker's view the monetisation process can generate an operating income multiple in the 20-25x range. 

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with a target of $3.85.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as No Rating (-1) -

Telstra's underlying earnings came in -7.5% below the broker's forecast.

The broker is now on research restriction, because Macquarie Capital has been hired for the TowerCo sell-down, and hence Macquarie cannot provide a recommendation or target price.

Current Price is $3.25. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Underweight (5) -

While Morgan Stanley notes first half earnings (EBITDA) were slightly below consensus, it's considered the market will take comfort from reiteration of full year guidance and the unusual step of reassuring investors early regarding second half DPS guidance.

The company announced the second half DPS will be 8 cents.

The broker believes the key will be whether management's aspiration is achievable for "mid to high single digit" growth in FY22 earnings (EBITDA) and FY23 earnings to be in the range of $7.5-8.5bn.

Underweight rating retained. Target price is $3. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Telstra Corp’s first half result was ahead of Morgans forecasts and the full year outlook was broadly in-line, albeit with higher free cash flow due to tighter working capital. 

The broker sees this result as a potential turning point as underlying earnings (EBITDA) should have bottomed in the first half and are set for growth in the years ahead.

Releasing value in the company’s InfraCo assets is again a priority with an update on the restructure due on March 21. Bids for InfraCo Tower are due by the end of 2021, notes the analyst.

The dividend was held flat at 8 cents fully franked, which was ahead of the analyst’s forecast for a -1 cent decline.

Hold rating and the target rises to $3.33 from $3.21.

Target price is $3.33 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.08
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Telstra Corp reported first-half operating earnings of $3.3bn, 3% higher than Ord Minnett’s estimate led by better margins in the mobile and fixed-line businesses.

The net profit was 63% higher than estimated by the broker, primarily helped by the tax rate and lower financing costs. A fully franked interim dividend of 8c was declared, in line with the broker's estimate and the previous period.

The broker expects the sale of TowerCo to be a positive driver, albeit the key is likely what management does with the proceeds. While seeing value emerging, Ord Minnett would like more definitive evidence of margin improvement. 

Accumulate rating is maintained with the target rising to $3.75 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.5
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra Corp's operating income at $3.324bn was in line UBS's estimated $3.321bn. The broker expects FY21 operating income to be $6.8bn versus Telstra's guidance of $6.6-6.9bn.

UBS is incrementally more positive on InfraCo on the back of observations that infrastructure investors may be willing to accept an equity internal rate of return of circa 5-7%.

Applying this to Telstra's mobile tower assets implies an operating income multiple of 25-30x, explains the broker. Buy and $3.70 target retained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $0.45
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.53, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates URW as Neutral (3) -

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield's result was largely in line. The landlord does not expect an earnings recovery until FY22 due to covid. Gearing has increased to 44.7%, there will be no dividends in FY21-22, and the asset divestment program in Europe has been delayed.

UR Westfield has liquidity for around another 24 months, the broker calculates, but as time passes the need to execute on the divestment programme will rise. If unsuccessful, this will result in more limited access to debt markets.

Neutral retained, target falls to $4.82 from $5.05.

Target price is $4.82 Current Price is $4.65 Difference: $0.17
If URW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WBC as Overweight (1) -

Prior to first quarter trading updates by banks, Morgan Stanley feels the key areas of focus will be margin pressure, cost control, underlying credit quality trends and capital generation.

There is expected to be modest downside risk to the broker's pre-provision profit forecasts though an expectation for low loan losses and healthy CET1 ratios.

The analyst expects the margin headwinds are mortgage competition, the flat yield curve,and changes in asset mix. However, deposit re-pricing and funding mix are considered key swing factors which could limit downside risk.

The trading update for Westpac Bank is due on Wednesday, February 17. Morgan Stanley forecasts cash earnings of around $1,518m, up around 7% ex notable items, and a margin of circa 2% which is down around -3 basis points from 2.03% in the second half of 2020.

The broker is also expecting impairment charges of -$300m, with no change in covid-19 overlays.

The Overweight rating and $24.60 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $22.29 Difference: $2.31
If WBC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.71, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources