Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ADH as Add (1) -

Adairs' first half result was slightly above Morgans earnings (EBIT) and profit (NPAT) forecasts as management executed well on product, attracted new customers and gained market share.

Retaining these new customers will be key for when demand ultimately normalises, although Mocka should provide continued strong growth in years to come, opines the broker.

Morgans lifts FY21 EPS forecasts by 14% and 3-6% thereafter, with outer year upgrades largely reflecting more bullish assumptions around Mocka sales rates domestically and margins.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $4.50 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.46
If ADH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ADH as Buy (1) -

First half results were ahead of UBS estimates. The broker is increasingly confident regarding the outlook beyond FY22. Gross margin has increased by around 523 basis points in 2020.

This may normalise but UBS expects around 45% of the benefits to be retained. The broker upgrades FY21-23 estimates for earnings per share by 5-13%. A Buy rating is maintained. Target is raised to $4.40 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.36
If ADH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ADI as Neutral (3) -

An initial analysis of APN Industria REIT's results shows first-half funds from operation of $19.8m, 6.9% ahead of Macquarie's expectations. The REIT reaffirmed its FY21 FFO guidance of 19.7-19.9c, slightly less than the broker's expectation of 20c.

Gross rental collections were more than 99% for the half and portfolio occupancy improved to 97% from 96% in June. Lease up of the upcoming Link expiry at Rhodes remains a focus for the broker.

Neutral rating and a target price of $2.74.

Target price is $2.74 Current Price is $2.86 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If ADI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AHY as Neutral (3) -

Citi conducts a preliminary review of Asaleo Care's FY20 result, which was largely pre-announced in late January 2021.

The broker highlights underlying continuing business earnings (EBITDA) were driven by the Retail segment, which benefited from lower trade spend and lower pulp costs. B2B earnings were considered lower due to reduced consumption in the “away from home” channels.

At the mid-point of guidance the company is targeting 3% EBITDA growth on 6% sales growth. The company expects headwinds from higher pulp, freight rates and stranded costs from Australian Consumer Tissues and NZ Baby.

Essity has revised its bid to $1.40 in cash and up to 5 cents in dividends. Of the 5 cents dividend, 3 cents will be paid as the usual FY20 operating dividend, while the remainder will be paid out as a special dividend before the scheme record date.

If approved, management expects the deal to be completed by June 2021. The Neutral rating and $1.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.03
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

While envisaging downside risk to second half earnings, Citi now suspects Altium is nearing the end of the pandemic-induced downgrade cycle.

The demand environment and earnings growth are likely to accelerate over 2021 as the vaccine is rolled out.

Valuation is now relatively more attractive. Hence, the broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $33.50 from $32.80.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $29.33 Difference: $4.17
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.44, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMS as Buy (1) -

First half revenue growth of 178% from the second half FY20 indicated strong signs of recovery for Atomos, the broker suggests, having been hit hard in the early stages of covid. Gross margins also improved.

Atomos is now benefitting from shifting trends in how individuals consume video content, the broker notes. The rise of online streaming/video platforms driven by lockdowns means there was surplus demand for original and high-quality content.

Atomos’ hardware helped to meet this demand. The broker has retained a Buy rating but removed the "Speculative" warning, preferring now to suggest "Higher" risk. Target rises to $1.35 from $1.24.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.23
If AMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANN as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Citi's estimates. Beyond the pandemic, the broker assesses the ungeared balance sheet provides further upside potential - either through M&A or buybacks.

Citi assumes sales normalise in FY23 and growth rates return to normal beyond that. Upside risk exists if permanently higher use of personal protective equipment occurs in some settings. Buy retained. Target rises to $44.00 from $41.50.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $4.72
If ANN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ANN as Outperform (1) -

Ansell's first-half earnings were in line with Credit Suisse's estimates at US82.9c with an interim dividend of US33.2cps.

The company's organic revenue growth at 22.9% exceeded expectations with covid elevating exam/single-use sales by 48%. The surgical segment saw sales and market share grow and signed agreements for several large GPOs and hospital groups.

Despite the strong earnings, Credit Suisse highlights a weaker cash performance with gross cash conversion impacted by a working capital build. The broker forecasts FY21 earnings to be US167c and expects strong demand for exam/single-use to continue.

Outperform rating with the target rising to $47 from $45.50. 

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $7.72
If ANN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

Ansell's result and guidance were in line with the broker. The company has been riding the wave of PPE demand and the broker expects this to continue in the near term, albeit competitors are planning capacity additions in 2021-22.

All good things must eventually come to an end, making the medium term uncertain. Underlying industrial trends remain incrementally positive, the broker notes, and Ansell retains a comfortable balance sheet position. On balance, Neutral retained.

Target rises to $38.30 from $36.35.

Target price is $38.30 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ANN as Overweight (1) -

Both revenue and earnings per share beat Morgan Stanley's estimates for Ansell with healthcare revenue up 39% and industrials materially ahead of the broker's forecast.

Earnings guidance was upgraded and stands at US$1.60-1.70c. While input costs and covid related supply chain disruptions are expected to temper in the second half, Ansell expects healthcare benefits will be retained for another 12 months.

While Morgan Stanley expects some ebbing of Ansell's healthcare growth in FY22, management highlighted single-use growth, 4% p.a. pre covid, is expected to be 6% post covid.

Overweight rating with the target rising to $48.10 from $46.90. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $48.10 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $8.82
If ANN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANN as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

After first half results, Morgans lifts the rating for Ansell to Add from Hold and the target to $44.45 from $36.06 as all key divisions saw performance improve.

Despite higher covid-19 related costs, gross margins increased 180 basis points to 35.9% on higher production volumes, manufacturing efficiencies and sales growth.

The broker believes demand for personal protection solutions will remain robust and the pandemic has strengthened the company’s position and earnings trajectory.

The analyst increases FY21-22 underlying earnings forecasts by up to 26%.

Target price is $44.45 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $5.17
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ANN as Accumulate (2) -

Ansell reported a first-half FY21 underlying net profit of US$106.5m, in-line with Ord Minnett’s forecast of US$106.8m. Earnings (EBIT) were -3% lower than Morgans estimate due to higher depreciation and amortisation charges, while revenue was 1% higher.

Management switched from a progressive dividend to a payout ratio, leading to an unfranked US$33.2 cent dividend, significantly above the broker's US$21cent forecast.

The analyst highlights Ansell has taken advantage of the disruption from covid-19 and missteps by competitors to lift its market share across the major business lines. This is considered to have placed the company in a strong position as the world starts to recover.

Accumulate rating and target rises to $45 from $40.80.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $5.72
If ANN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

First half revenue was ahead of UBS estimates and there was significant volume growth across key health care units amid continuing demand for personal protective equipment.

The pricing environment is also favourable, with the company retaining an ability to pass through higher raw material costs.

UBS makes significant upgrades to short-term forecasts and raises the target to $42.40 from $39.60.

Guidance for earnings per share in FY21 has been upgraded to US160-170c. This represents a 51% skew to the second half which the broker considers achievable. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $42.40 Current Price is $39.28 Difference: $3.12
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.18, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates APX as Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform (5) -

After discussion with industry contacts and a review of Appen’s FY21 outlook, the broker has decided to double-downgrade to Underperform from Outperform. The market has a consensus Buy rating but the broker is expecting a wake-up call.

The company's second half 2020 underperformance, previously revealed, was driven by increased competition leading to a structural loss of market share, and the broker expects headwinds to persist in 2021.

The result release should be a "non-event", the broker suggests, but once the outlook is reviewed the broker expects consensus downgrades. Target falls to $19 from $27.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $25.46 Difference: minus $6.46 (current price is over target).
If APX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AQR as Add (1) -

APN Convenience Retail REIT posted a solid first half result, assesses Morgans. It’s considered the key news is the agreement of commercial terms with EG Group regarding 10 year lease extensions on expiring FY22 leases.

The analyst highlights portfolio metrics remain robust with occupancy at 100%, weighted average lease expiry (WALE ) of 10.6 years and average annual rent reviews of 2.9%.

FY21 guidance is unchanged and comprises FFO of 21.8-22 cents and DPS guidance of no less than FY20 at 21.8 cents.

Add rating and $4.01 target are unchanged, after no material changes to Morgans' forecasts.

Target price is $4.01 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.53
If AQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQR as Accumulate (2) -

APN Convenience Retail reported broadly in line with expectations, highlighting the resilience of the REIT in the current times, the broker notes, with 100% of invoiced rents being collected.

The broker foresees solid upside to the portfolio in FY22 through committed acquisitions and developments, the finalisation of EG Group leases and the planned rollout and rebranding of Puma Energy sites to Caltex.

Given the upside, Accumulate retained. Target rises to $3.90 from $3.87.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.42
If AQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Citi assesses the recent financial performance has shown benefits from the pandemic as travel restrictions and economic stimulus have helped the top line and JobKeeper has helped profitability.

The broker suspects the market may be under appreciating the longer-term growth potential as export sales are going from strength to strength, while the company has reduced its pay-out to invest in growth.

ARB Corp is also favoured by multiple growth drivers in the Australian aftermarket. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $43.50 from $38.00.

Target price is $43.50 Current Price is $37.81 Difference: $5.69
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.90, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

ARB Corp's group revenue rose 22% versus last year, reflecting a buoyant second-hand vehicle market in Credit Suisse's view. The net operating cash of $55m was well ahead of the broker's estimate and Credit Suisse highlights the company is in a very healthy net cash position.

Post an "excellent" result and favourable fx trends, Credit Suisse ponders where the upside could be going ahead. Earnings forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% but the broker believes with the stock trading at higher multiples, near term upside drivers are finite.

Even so, believing the stock will continue to remain supported, Credit Suisse increases the target to $37 from $33.30. Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $37.81 Difference: minus $0.81 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.90, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARB as Neutral (3) -

ARB Corp's 110% growth in profit year on year hit the top end of the company's guidance range. Trading conditions remain solid, the broker notes, with an order book that is still at record levels for the second half.

Problems with supply chains remain, but efficiencies, increased scale and a reduction in covid-related operating costs offset. Ongoing international travel bans should support demand well into 2021, the broker suggests.

No guidance offered, and the broker retains Neutral on the basis momentum will eventaully slow. Target rises to $36.10 from $33.50.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $37.81 Difference: minus $1.71 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.90, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

ARB Corp's result came in 3.7% above Ord Minnett, albeit inclusive of JobKeeper. While the dividend increased, the payout ratio was lower than expected as the company looks to increase investment in the business.

Recent improvement in new vehicle sales after a long period of decline may represent a turning point for the industry, the broker suggests. ARB's key vehicles, large SUVs and 4WDs, have achieved particularly strong growth in recent months.

This combined with strong demand in export markets should lead to a period of above average sales and profit growth. The broker thus upgrades its rating to Hold from Lighten, but no more given valuation is fair. Target rises to $35 from $26.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $37.81 Difference: minus $2.81 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.90, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Underlying earnings (EBIT) were in line with Citi's estimates while net profit was -6% below. The company has paid out an increased dividend and Citi raises its assumed pay-out ratio for FY21 and FY22 to 94% and 95%, respectively.

While the short-term outlook is uncertain, with the deployment of vaccines a major downside risk has been significantly mitigated, in the broker's view.

The scale of stimulus being applied to major economies should also provide solid support for a recovery. Citi retains a Neutral rating and $46 target.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

BHP Group announced a "bumper" 85% dividend payout of US101c, notes Credit Suisse, with net debt falling below the targeted US$12-US$17bn and operating income in-line with consensus.

While currency played spoilsport on the cost front, the broker highlights the economic backdrop was far more buoyant since the last result. Looking at coal prices, the broker believes there is scope for stronger capital returns that should keep the existing holders happy.

Neutral rating with a target of $42.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: minus $5 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

It was an in-line result from BHP Group on balance, with weaker earnings offset by stronger cash flow and a bigger dividend than expected.

Currency headwinds are putting pressure on costs, the broker notes, although the company has left FY21 cost guidance unchanged, and capex, for which guidance has been increased in FY21, with upside risk for FY22.

But such pressures are chump change when compared to strength in iron ore prices. Outperform and $50 target retained.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: $3
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

BHP Group's first-half dividend equates to a payout ratio of 85%, ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimated 70%. 

Both revenue and operating income were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. At the division level, copper beat the broker's estimates by 7% but was offset by lower reported operating income from coal.

FY21 capex guidance has been raised US$0.3bn to US$7.3bn led by higher AUD and is now in-line with the broker's forecast. US$7.3bn.

Overweight rating is retained with a target price of $48.05. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.05 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: $1.05
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Because BHP Group's interim dividend exceeded free cash flow, Morgans had not counted on the company paying out 85% of earnings to set a new record in the first half. The broker is not concerned as net debt is at the low end of its/management's preferred range.

First half group earnings (EBITDA) of US$14,680m were slightly below Morgans estimate of US$14,761m, while profit (NPAT) fell short of consensus.

The broker highlights another strong performance from the copper business which offset a disappointing performance from the coal businesses as lower volumes and the Australian dollar weighed.

Along with copper and nickel management has elevated potash to preferred status, a powerful signal all but guaranteeing the board will sanction Jansen Stage 1 in mid-2021, explains the broker.

Management expects a durable growth focus from policymakers in key consuming economies, population growth and increasing living standards to continue to support a strong price environment for commodities.

Separately, Morgans upgrades iron ore forecasts for the next three years as iron ore markets remain supported by a combination of demand/supply factors, with consensus remaining in catch-up mode providing steady upgrade expectations.

On the supply side, the inability of Brazilian major Vale to return to full production could remain in place during 2021.

Also, stimulus is considered to have effectively buoyed China’s economy post covid-19 fallout though should ease during 2021 as domestic consumption picks up.

The analyst sees BHP Group as offering an attractive combination of superior diversification, mix of peaking and recovering commodities and solid underlying fundamentals.

Morgans sees robust earnings and dividends as increasingly important in the current global climate. Hold and target is increased to $42.20 from $40.55.

Target price is $42.20 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: minus $4.8 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Buy (1) -

BHP Group reported a first half FY21 underlying net profit of US$6bn, in-line with Ord Minnett’s forecast. The fully franked interim dividend of US$101 cents was much stronger than expected versus the US$82c the broker estimated and with a consensus forecast of US$84c.

At the divisional level, Escondida was higher than expected after an -18% drop in costs, while Queensland coal reported a lower than expected -US$0.2bn earnings (EBITDA) loss on maintenance costs.

Ord Minnett makes no major changes to earnings forecasts given cost and production guidance remains largely unchanged. On the
dividend, the broker increases the FY21 and FY22 payout ratio assumption to 85%.

Buy rating and target decreases to $52 from $53.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: $5
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

First half operating earnings were below UBS estimates. The main surprise was that BHP Group paid out 85% of net profit, compared to its three-year average of 70%.

Management has indicated its minimum 50% pay-out of net profit is unchanged but retains the flexibility depending on market conditions. Unit costs guidance was unchanged.

The broker suggests, given limited near-term growth, the market is likely to focus on cash returns and believes BHP Group could continue to pay out 100% of free cash flow if market conditions persist. Buy retained. Target rises to $50 from $48.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $47.00 Difference: $3
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $47.18, suggesting downside of -3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BRG as Neutral (3) -

Breville Group's result was stronger than Credit Suisse forecast with sales up 28.8% with operating income up 29.6%. Credit Suisse expects working from home and limited opportunity for international travel will continue to support sales performance in 2021.

If the shift to working from home persists, it may permanently change the size of the group's addressable market, suggests the broker. The company guidance was upgraded to $136m in operating income from $128-$132m.

Target price rises to $30.20 from $29.14 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $30.20 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.27, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BRG as Outperform (1) -

Breville Group's earnings result beat the broker by 13%. Global product revenue growth was again the highlight and has accelerated from second half FY20 trends. FY21 guidance has been upgraded.

Reinvestment into growth initiatives is constraining near term margins but supporting longer term growth, the broker suggests. The appeal of the stock remains the duration of the growth trajectory, which is supported by internal initiatives, over and above market demand.

The broker believes Breville can sustainably grow earnings in FY22. Outperform retained, target rises to $34.80 from $27.00.

Target price is $34.80 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: $3.45
If BRG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.27, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BRG as Overweight (1) -

Breville Group's first-half revenue was up 29% to $711m with operating income up 30%, both ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. Product revenue growth at 39% was robust across all regions with Americas up 29% and APAC lifting by 50%.

To meet its upgraded FY21 operating income guidance, Breville Group needs to deliver $41m in the second half, implying 3% growth versus the 30% achieved in the first half.

Unsurprisingly, the broker considers this guidance conservative especially looking at the strong demand for small kitchen appliances, tight inventory across all regions and the strengthening AUD. 

Target rises to $35 from $29. Overweight rating. Industry: In-line.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: $3.65
If BRG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.27, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Add (1) -

Breville Group’s first half revenue and earnings (EBIT) beat Morgans forecasts by around 12%, with year-on-year revenue, EBIT and profit (NPAT) increasing by 29%, 30% and 25%, respectively.

The company increased FY21 earnings guidance that implies to the broker only around 3% EBIT growth in the second half.

Despite flagging healthy revenue growth, management cited increased investment in medium-term growth projects, which is expected to bolster FY22/23 earnings, explains the analyst.

Morgans continues to see significant upside from the rollout to Europe, Middle East and Asia over time, bolstered by a strong new product pipeline, existing market growth and industry tailwinds.

Add rating and target increased to $33.90 from $29.18.

Target price is $33.90 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: $2.55
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.27, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

First half results beat estimates and UBS was impressed by the top-line momentum. The broker believes the increased cost investment in the second half positions the company well.

Although the stock appears expensive over the short term UBS is confident in the longer-term growth story stemming from new products, markets and retail partners. A Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $35.70 from $29.90.

Target price is $35.70 Current Price is $31.35 Difference: $4.35
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.27, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

First half profit was ahead of expectations. Citi notes margins were a little softer than expected as costs increased. There were strong volumes from consumer staples as, globally, at-home consumption was at heightened levels.

FY21 guidance has been upgraded to sales revenue growth of 4-6% versus 2-4% prior. Underlying profit growth is now expected to be 5-7% and Citi notes this is the second upgrade in six months. Buy rating and $12.90 target retained.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $2.48
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' revenue for the half was up 6% over last year and 5% above Credit Suisse's forecast of US$2,446m. Operating income at US$457m was 12% above the broker's forecast driven mainly by stronger-than-expected performance in EMEA and the Americas.

Management has upgraded its guidance to 4-6% revenue growth from 2-4% although expects a slower pace of growth in the second half due to tougher comparables from FY20.

Outperform retained. Target is raised to $12.50 from $12.25.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $2.08
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' headline profit result was a beat but adjusting for a one-off puts it largely in line. Guidance has been upgraded but the broker forecasts a sequential slowdown in revenue growth, given covid-related benefits in the first half FY21.

Yet the broker expects to see margin expansion in CHEP Americas considering ongoing automation benefits and lumber initiatives in the US, and margin improvements in both Canada and Latin America with the cycling of higher costs in the second half FY20.

Around 80% of revenues are exposed to consumer staples, providing resilience, and the broker suggests valuation is undemanding, supported by the buyback. Outperform retained, target falls to $11.70 from $12.35 on interest rate and currency adjustments.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $1.28
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Overweight (1) -

Brambles' headline operating income was 3% ahead of estimates but this was after including a net gain on a plant relocation. Excluding this, profit was 1% ahead of the broker's estimate although margins were below forecast with a miss in the Americas and APAC offset by a stronger than expected EMEA result.

Revenue growth guidance has now been upgraded to 4-6% from 2-4%. while Brambles has underperformed the ASX200 since January 1, 2021 due to concerns around guidance, the broker believes this update should be well received.

Overweight. Target is $12.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $1.98
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Add (1) -

Brambles reported first half revenue and underlying earnings (EBIT) growth (constant FX) that was ahead of Morgans expectations.

On a divisional basis earnings rose for CHEP Americas, CHEP EMEA and CHEP Asia-Pacific by 3%, 7% and 4%, respectively.

Management has upgraded outlook guidance with FY21 revenue growth (constant FX) now expected to be 4-6% from 2-4% and underlying EBIT growth of 5-7% from 3-5%.

After making minor changes to forecasts Morgans maintains the Add rating and raises the target price to $12.10 from $11.90

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $1.68
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

First half earnings (EBIT) growth of 5% was broadly in line with UBS forecasts. A delay to the pilot plastic pallet trials is likely to be a positive, the broker asserts, for those concerned about the risks relating to returns on margins.

Earnings guidance has been increased to 5-7% growth, although this includes a 1% benefit from one-offs. UBS retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $11.00 from $10.80.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.42 Difference: $0.58
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Carsales' first-half operating income was 8% above Macquarie's forecast and 14% above consensus. The broker highlights revenue gains were led by dealer revenues of $87m, indicating the strength of the used car market.

Private revenues were down -24% year on year led by lower tyre sales volumes while media revenues were down -19% due to a reduction in new car sales.

Carsales management indicated it forecasts moderate revenue growth and "solid" growth in operating income and net profit in FY21.

Neutral rating with a target of $19.30.

Target price is $19.30 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: minus $2.8 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.67, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett takes a preliminary look at Carsales.com's FY20 first half result and deems it 'solid' in light of a half impacted by Victorian restrictions.

The company reported adjusted earnings (EBITDA) that were 8.1% ahead of the broker's estimate, driven by better-than-anticipated dealer revenue. Private revenue was considered relatively weaker due to social distancing measures and lower tyre sales volumes. 

South Korea has once again proved resilient, notes the broker, whilst other international segments saw relatively weak performance off the back of covid-19.

The Hold rating and $20.26 target are under review.

Target price is $20.26 Current Price is $22.10 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.67, suggesting downside of -9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCX as Outperform (1) -

Recent feedback from industry participants has suggested both foot traffic and overall spending have held up over late 2020 and early 2021 in suburban malls, the broker notes, with CBD traffic down materially from a year ago.

The company’s store portfolio nevertheless has minimal exposure to CBD locations, having closed its Pitt St (Sydney) store mid last year. New supply into the plus-size market remains constrained, the broker notes, because fashion graduates aren't interested.

City Chic's exposure to portfolio of global leading plus size brands is poised to deliver in the short term, the broker suggests, particularly in A&NZ, and globally in the the long term. Outperform retained, target rises to $4.60 from $4.30.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.43
If CCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Group reported first-half operating earnings of $129.3m, -43% below last year and the result was -5% below Macquarie's expectation. 

The asset manager also reported assets under management of $46.4bn, up 14.4% versus June 2020 led by acquisitions, revaluations and capex. (-$1.3bn).

In an initial assessment, Macquarie notes while revenue was slightly below expectations, Charter Hall was able to manage costs well, leading to expanding operating income margins.

Outperform rating retained with a target of $15.96. Charter Hall has upgraded its FY21 guidance for operating EPS to 55c from 53c.

Target price is $15.96 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $2.18
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.64, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett has a preliminary review of Charter Hall Group's first half result.

Overall the broker feels it looks a good quality result with strong assets under management (AUM) growth and good underlying Property Funds Management (PFM) earnings growth driving upgraded earnings guidance.

First half underlying operating earnings were $129.3m, 6% above Ord Minnett's estimate of $121.6m due to a strong funds management result.

The Accumulate rating and $16.20 target are retained at this stage.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $2.42
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.64, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Chalice Gold Mines' metallurgical test work has shown palladium and platinum recoveries of 86.3% and 73.9%, presenting upside to the broker's 75% base case assumptions. Copper and nickel concentrates were also encouraging, with results on cobalt pending.

Demonstrating that saleable copper and nickel concentrates can be produced is a key positive for Chalice, the broker suggests. Metal recovery rates were higher for palladium, gold, and copper but lower for nickel compared to the broker's base case assumptions.

Outperform and $5.40 target retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $0.71
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CL1 as Buy (1) -

Upon first analysis, Class Limited’s 1H21 result proved broadly in-line with expectations.

Ord Minnett notes the performance included a nice kicker with the acquisition of ReckonDocs ((RKN)), which the company expects will add around $2.4m of earnings (EBITDA) (up 9% on the broker’s previous FY22 EBITDA forecasts).

In the broker's view, the announcement of Findex signing up to the NowInfinity Doc Suite is a further endorsement of Class Limited’s multi-product strategy.

The company notes a total addressable market (TAM) of $365m, and estimates it has reached only around 10% of potential customers, which highlights a significant runway of growth ahead.

Given this growth potential, supported by an enviable client retention rate of 98.5%, Ord Minnett remains positive on the stock, and has increased its target price to $2.40 from $2.25.

Buy recommendation is retained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.19
If CL1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Coles delivered 1H21 earnings (EBIT) of $1,020m (post-AASB16) and EPS of 42cps, around 2% ahead of Citi.

Supermarket gross margins expanded by 71bps in 1H21, but Coles saw like for like sales momentum slow from 9.7% in 1Q21 to 5.0% in 2Q21.

In its initial response, Citi notes that the first 6 weeks of trading in 2H21 have seen sales momentum slow further to just 3.3%, with online slowing to 37% growth, down from 48% in 1H21.

Capex guidance has been increased to $1.1 billion from $1.0 billion previously to focus on Coles Local, online and store efficiencies.

Citi expects consensus 2H21 downgrades following the slowing top-line and guidance for negative earnings growth.

Buy and price target of $21.20 are retained.

Target price is $21.20 Current Price is $18.18 Difference: $3.02
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial assessment, Macquarie observes Coles' 1H21 net profit was generally in line with consensus. Macquarie notes $103m earnings (EBIT) for Liqour was a positive surprise, up 37% on pcp.

Supermarket like for like (LFL) growth at 7.2% was slightly below Macquarie's estimate (7.6%), with 2Q21 LFL slowing to 5.0%. In addition to supply constraints with some fresh produce, the group called out red meat inflation as a key driver in 2Q. 

Given mobility restrictions in Victoria, the broker highlights that Express was surprisingly stronger with LFL growth up 9.9%.

The Neutral rating and price target of $18.50 are maintained.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.18 Difference: $0.32
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.61, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett conducts a preliminary review of Corporate Travel Management's first half result and concludes it looks 'ok' with costs and cash burn behaving as expected.

Revenue declined -75% versus pcp to $56.5m and there was an underlying earnings (EBITDA) loss from continuing operations of -$15.7m versus the broker's expectations of a -$14.9m loss.

The result confirms the company is in a sound position to strengthen its global position, predicts the analyst.

The Buy rating and $22.11 target are under review.

Target price is $22.11 Current Price is $18.01 Difference: $4.1
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.49, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DHG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform with the target dropping to $5 from $5.10. 

Domain Holdings Australia's first-half earnings were slightly ahead of Credit Suisse's estimates with revenue of $137m and operating income of $54.5m. 

On the flip side, company guidance for FY21 total costs was significantly higher than expected. Costs are expected to step up in FY22 on account of the reversal of the JobKeeper/Zipline benefit.

Given Credit Suisse analysts had previously forecast for costs to progressively ramp up over time, changes made to outer year estimates are more limited.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes greater depth and price growth will underpin the top line for Domain Holdings. First half operating earnings were better than expected and depth penetration was strong.

The broker revises FY21 estimates for earnings per share down by -20%, to reflect higher costs and with a listings recovery not anticipated until after the first half of FY22. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $5.81 from $5.25.

Target price is $5.81 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.68
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's initial assessment of Domain Holdings Australia's first-half result shows earnings are ahead of expectations, mostly due to better cost outs.

While the market may be concerned about higher second half costs, the broker's thesis is Domain is still in the early stages of a multi-year cyclical and structural recovery in revenue.

No specific guidance was provided.

The Overweight rating is unchanged with a target price of $5.50. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.37
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DHG as Hold (3) -

Domain Holdings has reported a first half result around 14% ahead of Morgans expectations at the earnings (EBITDA) line though the broker lowers FY21 forecasts by -1%. This is because management indicated second half costs would be more than the analyst was expecting.

Despite the increased costs, the broker believes the company needs to continue to invest at elevated levels to maintain product development, increase consumer utility and further diversify revenue sources. 

Although Morgans increased the target to $4.44 from $3.97, it's considered growth is largely captured by the current share price and the rating is left at Hold.

Target price is $4.44 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Hold (3) -

Domain Holdings reported a first half FY21 underlying net profit of $19.4m, up 53% on the same period last year and well above consensus and Ord Minnett’s $16.4m forecast.

The broker highlights depth revenue increased 13%, while subscription revenues declined -1%. The company’s push towards its gold and silver depth products is apparent from overall depth penetration rising across all markets, explains the analyst.

Other positives include services for media, developers and commercial, and agents beat Ord Minnett's estimates.

The broker maintains a Hold rating due to a lack of valuation support on a discounted cash flow basis and lifts the target to $4.50 from $3.85.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

UBS now assumes a more sizeable rebound in NSW volumes, which is 33% of national turnover, and found something for both bears and bulls in the results. Cost guidance and a potential new FY22 cost baseline slightly above $200m is likely to disappoint.

On the other hand, for the bulls the focus is on what mid cycle earnings could look like, particularly if NSW stamp duty reforms lift turnover. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $5.20 from $4.25.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.07
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi conducts a preliminary review of Domino's Pizza Enterprises' first half results.

The broker highlights network sales were up 17% and earnings (EBIT) of $153 million were up 32%. Two-thirds of the growth came from Japan, while Europe had a better period than the second half FY20, explains the broker.

The company declared an interim dividend of 88.4c, up 33%, and noted strong early trading early in the second half FY21. 

Australian earnings (EBITDA) rose 7% on network sales growth of 6% though margins were largely steady, which suggests to the analyst limited operating leverage to solid sales growth.

Additionally, there was food and paper cost growth of 26% and marketing cost growth of 19%, both ahead of network sales growth of 17%, warns the broker.

On the flipside, Japan reported same store sales growth of 36% and EBITDA of $82.4 million representing growth of 55%. Margin expansion of 176 basis points reflects good all round performance with significant new store growth, explains the analyst. 

The Sell rating and $67.40 target are retained.

Target price is $67.40 Current Price is $97.61 Difference: minus $30.21 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $78.03, suggesting downside of -25.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EBO as Neutral (3) -

In its initial take on the Ebos Group 1H21 result, Citi notes that reported earnings (EBIT) growth of 11% highlighted the operational leverage of the business in times of elevated growth.

The broker also notes the better than expected operational performance was partially offset by higher than anticipated corporate costs and non-operational items.

By segment, Healthcare earnings (EBIT) were 7% above, while Animal Care was 1% better. Ebos Group provided no numerical guidance, but it noted that covid-19 is not having a material negative financial impact on the group.

Citi expects the market reaction to be relatively muted, given the in-line result and consensus.

But the broker suspects investors will seek a better understanding of growth prospects in Q4, given the high comps (first lockdown in March 2020), trajectory of corporate costs, timing of recovery of Consumer Brands sub-segment, the impact of covid-19 vaccination, and growth prospects beyond the pandemic.

Neutral rating with a target price of $27.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $0
If EBO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

Elmo Software reiterated its FY21 guidance in a result that was largely pre-announced.

The FY21 recurring revenue guidance range of 10-19% (half on half) growth is seen as very wide by Morgan Stanley. Also, looking at the economic rebound, the broker expects the upper end of guidance increasingly likely. 

Overweight rating with a target of $9.70. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: $3.2
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Fletcher Building reported 1H21 underlying earnings (EBIT) of NZ$323 million, up 47% vs the pcp, slightly ahead of Citi (NZ$319 million) and the top end of the guidance range, and paid an interim dividend of 12 cents.

The beat was driven by the building products division, a key beneficiary of the bounce in NZ housing and higher steel spread, but in its initial glance Citi notes that Australia earnings (EBIT) profitability remains challenged.

Fletcher Building’s trading update indicates that January and early February trading has seen a slightly slower ramp up post the New Year break.

Fletcher Building expects FY21 underlying earnings (EBIT) to be in the range of NZ$610 million to NZ$660 million. While this represents 4% upside to Citi and consensus, Citi expects to see modest upgrades to consensus estimates as a result of guidance, with the elevated conditions seen in 1H21 likely to support earnings in 2H21.

Neutral rating retained. 

Current Price is $5.96. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The Iron Bridge review has meant three senior employees have resigned and the CEO and CFO have forgone incentives for FY21. It appears to Macquarie the departures are related to the review, with an update expected at the results on February 18.

Macquarie forecasts capital expenditure at Iron Bridge of US$3.1bn, 20% above the original estimate. Outperform rating and $26.50 target retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $23.70 Difference: $2.8
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.44, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Fortescue Metals Group's COO Greg Lilleyman has resigned with immediate effect. The group's CEO and CFO will also forego all incentive payments for the financial year.

The CEO clarified these changes were a result of the review of Fortescue's Iron Bridge project.

Morgan Stanley assumes an extra US$258m in capex along with a 6-month delay and also warns the updated capex or schedule could be worse as the group had flagged capex increase at its quarterly result call.

Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating with a target of $17.45. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $23.70 Difference: minus $6.25 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.44, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans upgrades iron ore forecasts for the next three years as iron ore markets remain supported by a combination of demand/supply factors, with consensus remaining in catch-up mode providing steady upgrade expectations.

On the supply side, the inability of Brazilian major Vale to return to full production could remain in place during 2021.

Also, stimulus is considered to have effectively buoyed China’s economy post covid-19 fallout though should ease during 2021 as domestic consumption picks up.

The analyst explains Fortescue Metals Group is supported by a high yield compared to peers and exceptional earnings momentum. It’s considered better suited to more active investors capable of tolerating higher levels of risk and volatility.

Morgans sees robust earnings and dividends as increasingly important in the current global climate. 

Hold and target is increased to $21.60 from $18.40.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $23.70 Difference: minus $2.1 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.44, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -

The resource/reserve statement and 2021 guidance, on a production basis, are better than Macquarie had anticipated, although this is offset by higher costs.

Gold Road believes its growth aspirations can be realised from minimal capital expenditure, with plant utilisation rates the main driver of the processing target of 10mtpa.

2020 financial results will be released in the week of March 8 and Macquarie expects a maiden dividend will be announced. The broker transfers coverage to another analyst and retains an Outperform rating, reducing the target to $1.50 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.26
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses the decline in construction markets has probably levelled off, although the pace of recovery may take 6-9 months to be reflected in sales.

The company is yet to experience sales leverage to the upturn in residential, given the late-cycle nature of its products. Citi retains a Neutral rating and upgrades the target to $3.50 from $3.25.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.09
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

GWA Group's first-half operating income and net profit were -3% below Credit Suisse's forecasts while cash conversion stood strong at 116%.

Regarding market recovery, Credit Suisse observes there seems to be little reason to cheer since the guidance for the second half was not as optimistic as hoped. It seems the group does not expect to benefit from the increase in housing approvals/turnover, suggests the broker.

Neutral rating with the target rising to $3.15 from $2.85.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GWA as Outperform (1) -

First half results were ahead of Macquarie's estimates amid strong cash flow. Margins were softer but should improve in the second half and the broker finds the FY22 outlook continues to strengthen.

Solid growth is expected in the core renovations and detached housing segments. The commercial segment could also grow on the back of success in targeting education and health/aged care projects, the broker asserts.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $3.80 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.39
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

GWA Group’s first half result was in-line with Morgans forecast at the revenue line and 8% better than expected at the earnings (EBIT) line.

Despite lower earnings, operating cash flow rose 18%, largely due to improved working capital management, notes the broker.

The analyst highlights cost-out targets remain on track, while market share was maintained in Australia and grew in NZ and the UK. More negatively, it's considered the near-term outlook for commercial and multi-residential sectors remains subdued.

Hold rating and target lifts to $3.30 from $2.43.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

The initial analysis of Homeco Daily Needs REIT's results shows first-half funds from operations (FFO) of 0.65c were above Macquarie's estimated 0.56c and above guidance. The REIT has upgraded its FY21 FFO guidance by 9%, in-line with the broker's 4.2c forecast. 

The broker notes the development assets of Ellenbrook and Richlands are on track to open ahead of schedule. Also, the REIT is targeting $22m of brownfield developments to open by the second half of FY22, a key growth driver in the broker's view.

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating with a target of $1.42.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.08
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Incitec Pivot's update was disappointing given operational issues impacted plant uptime in North America, although the problems should be one-off, the broker notes. Offsets nevertheless included higher Phosphate Hill production and increased earnings at Gibson Island.

Incitec had also hedged its currency exposure at US74.5c when the broker had assumes US77c. No guidance provided but the broker retains Buy and a $3.20 target.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.58
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.99, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial Group recently reported a first-half FY21 result which was broadly in-line with Ord Minnett’s expectations, with a softer top line offset by lower-than-expected operating costs.

The broker notes the price-earnings multiple has declined with the shift in performance in core global strategies, but the stock still trades at a premium to its domestic listed fund manager peers.

Target is reduced to $52 from $70.48 and the Hold rating is maintained. Fund flows and fund performance remain the key near-term catalysts for the stock, according to the analyst.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $48.87 Difference: $3.13
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $51.91, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -

National Australia Bank's first-quarter update prompts Credit Suisse to lower its forecasts for bad debts, in turn leading to earnings upgrades of 6-12% across the forecast period. 

In addition to lowering its bad debt assumptions, the broker has incorporated a $3bn buyback into the forecasts, spread evenly across FY22-23.

Credit Suisse likes the bank as one of the recovery plays in the sector that is also likely to have a capital management thematic emerge over FY22-23.

Outperform rating with the target price rising to $27 from $26.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $1.44
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank has reported its lowest bad debt charge in 30 years in the first quarter. The main upside, in Macquarie's view, is the strong CET1 ratio of 11.7%.

Underlying revenue has been underpinned by better margins amid benefits from improved deposit pricing and mortgage re-pricing, which have offset lower rates and competition.

Macquarie does not find the stock price stretched but continues to envisage pressure on profitability and remains cautious about the fundamental outlook. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $26.50 from $24.00.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $0.94
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Equal-weight (3) -

National Australia Bank's cash profit rose circa 47% versus last year and was this was circa 19% ahead of Morgan Stanley's forecast due to lower loan losses. Pre-provision profit was circa 1.5% above the broker's estimate due to better expenses.

The bank considers its performance sound with momentum continuing to build up. The broker believes the bank's circa $110bn SME portfolio should benefit from the improvement in general business conditions and confidence

Australian loan growth is expected to be circa 2.5% in FY21 and circa 4% in FY22.

Equal-weight rating with the target rising to $25.30 from $24.50. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -

National Australia Bank has announced unaudited cash earnings of $1.65bn for the first quarter, which, on a run-rate basis, is 10% better than Morgans expectation. This is considered largely the result of a much lower-than-expected credit impairment charge.

On a run-rate basis, revenue (excluding large notable items) declined -3% from the second half FY20 to the first quarter FY21. This reflects lower Markets & Treasury income mainly due to the non-repeat of mark-to-market loss reversals in the second half, explains the broker.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $27 from $22 after raising CET1 ratio forecasts. Morgans is now forecasting a CET1 ratio of 12.5% by the end of FY23 and sees potential for capital management over the forecast period.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $1.44
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Accumulate (2) -

National Australia Bank remains Ord Minnett's key preference among the major banks after a first quarter trading update that had revenue and capital running ahead of the broker’s forecasts and expenses falling quarter-on-quarter.

The analyst considers the bank’s strong capital position should also add fuel to the capital management fire down the track and estimates  $5bn of surplus capital versus a common equity tier-one (CET1) ratio of 11% at the first-half result result.

Excluding markets and treasury, revenue grew 1%, driven by business fee growth and the analyst notes the underlying revenue growth compares favourably to the Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)).

The target increases to $27.10 from $26.50 after the broker lifts EPS forecasts by 2–10% over the FY21–23 period. The analyst still sees good valuation support and retains the Accumulate rating.

Target price is $27.10 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $1.54
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Buy (1) -

The first quarter pre-provision profits were in line with expectations. Cash net profit was ahead, given lower credit impairment charges.

National Australia Bank has recorded its lowest credit impairment charge since it began reporting quarterly earnings in 2008, UBS notes.

This reflects a benign quarter and no changes to the overlays taken in FY20. The CET1 ratio of 11.7% was also ahead of expectations and derived benefit from FX translation and marking to market on the liquids book.

UBS upgrades FY21 and FY22 estimates by 7% and 3%, respectively. Buy retained. Target rises to $27 and $25.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.56 Difference: $1.44
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.38, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAN as Lighten (4) -

With about 12% of the US population having now received their first dose of the vaccine, the broker believes hospitalisations in the US, Nanosonics’ largest market, may have peaked.

The flipside is this should likely support a further recovery in ultrasound volumes in coming months as elective procedures pick up. Ahead of the company's earnings result, the broker retains Lighten, cutting its target to $5.60 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If NAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.95, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's net profit was higher than Macquarie expected with platform revenue for the first half at $71.2m as compared to Macquarie's expected $66.9m, driven by higher funds under administration albeit offset somewhat by lower platform revenue margins.

Funds under management (FuA) was $40.7bn as of February 15, a rise of $1.9bn since 31 December 2020. In FY21, FuA net inflows are expected to be in the range of $8.5bn to $9bn versus the broker's expected $8.8bn.

In an initial assessment, Macquarie considers this a strong result although the impact of repricing measures will offset some of the benefits to outer year earnings.

Neutral maintained with a target price of $18.25.

Target price is $18.25 Current Price is $17.91 Difference: $0.34
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.50, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ONT as Add (1) -

1300 Smiles posted first half profit (NPAT) of $5.9m, up 35% on the pcp and ahead of Morgans forecast of $4.7m. Statutory revenue was up 1% to $23.8m (cycling disposal gains on practice sales) while over the counter (OTC) revenue grew 8% to $34.8m.

While covid-induced shutdowns have caused significant business interruption to the industry, the broker believes once JobKeeper rolls off in March a number of small operators may close. This is considered likely to see a tightening of supply and potential for acquisitions.

Add rating and target price increases to $7.82 from $7.68.

Target price is $7.82 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $0.77
If ONT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Electric vehicle sales have proved extremely resilient in 2020, Citi observes, growing by around 35%, while overall passenger vehicles fell -20%. This signals sizeable demand growth in stocking activity from the EV battery supply chain.

While lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices are up over the year to date the major feedstock, spodumene, is still rather flat. Citi expects spodumene will recover to US$600/t over the next 18 months, amid demand strength and better supply discipline from miners.

Orocobre is upgraded to Buy/High Risk from Neutral/High Risk and the target is unchanged at $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $1.45
If ORE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.96, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

In an initial assessment, Pact Group Holdings' first-half net profit was up 31% versus Macquarie's forecast of $39.8m. A dividend of 5c per share was declared versus the broker's expected 3c. The broker considers the result good with key metrics ahead of the broker's forecast.

Led by better earnings and disciplined cost management, the group's operating cash flow improved to $100m versus $66m last year although still below Macquarie's expected $106m.

The group has guided to operating income of $166m that compares to the broker's forecast of $171m. While the group expects the second half trends to be similar to the first half, Macquarie notes the second half is typically a softer period seasonally.

Neutral rating with a target price of $2.70. 

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.05
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PLS as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Electric vehicle sales have proved extremely resilient in 2020, Citi observes, growing by around 35%, while overall passenger vehicles fell -20%. This signals sizeable demand growth in stocking activity from the EV battery supply chain.

While lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices are up over the year to date the major feedstock, spodumene, is still rather flat. Citi expects spodumene will recover to US$600/t over the next 18 months, amid demand strength and better supply discipline from miners.

The acquisition of Pilgangoora remains the key catalyst and Citi upgrades Pilbara Minerals to Neutral/High Risk from Sell/High Risk and raises the target to $1.10 from $1.00.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.02
If PLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting downside of -23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RBL as Add (1) -

Morgans explains lower gross margins and higher marketing spend in the second quarter were the reasons behind an around -10% earnings (EBITDA) miss.

Whilst unanticipated, the broker makes little adjustment to outer year forecasts and feels the initial negative share price reaction was overdone.

The analyst notes the second half looks well supported with January off to a strong start. It's considered the structural move online will be enduring and will favour the company.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target price is increased to $6.64 from $6.31.

Target price is $6.64 Current Price is $5.69 Difference: $0.95
If RBL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHP as Accumulate (2) -

Rhipe reported first-half FY21 operating earnings (EBITDA) of $8.2m, up 17% on the pcp and slightly ahead of Ord Minnett’s $7.7m forecast, though this included a number of one-off items. The result was largely pre-released in the January trading update.

The business continues to track in-line with the broker's expectations and stronger organic revenue growth is expected to return post covid-19. A fully franked interim dividend of 1.5 cents was declared.

The Accumulate rating and $2.35 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.59
If RHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans upgrades iron ore forecasts for the next three years as iron ore markets remain supported by a combination of demand/supply factors, with consensus remaining in catch-up mode providing steady upgrade expectations.

On the supply side, the inability of Brazilian major Vale to return to full production could remain in place during 2021.

Also, stimulus is considered to have effectively buoyed China’s economy post covid-19 fallout though should ease during 2021 as domestic consumption picks up.

The analyst sees Rio Tinto, by comparison to peers, as better suited to those investors seeking a larger iron ore exposure from a low risk franchise.

The company has increased execution risk around reserve replacement in the Pilbara, a more difficult ESG profile given the aluminium operations and country risk given the operations in South Africa and Mongolia.

Morgans sees robust earnings and dividends as increasingly important in the current global climate.

Hold and target is increased to $113 from $109.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $123.05 Difference: minus $10.05 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $124.64, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RKN as Equal-weight (3) -

Reckon's earnings were in line with Morgan Stanley's forecasts with sales at $75.6m and operating income 6% ahead of the broker's estimate while cash earnings were more in line.

The major highlight was the divestment of Reckon Docs for $13m to Class ((CL1)).

The business group delivered 7% sales growth while practice management saw sales decline -3%. The broker awaits more detail around the benefits of the combination with ZebraWorks. 

Equal-weight rating and In-Line sector view retained. Target is $0.84.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If RKN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's suspicions of a better than expected result were confirmed with SG Fleet's result exceeding its guidance and the broker's estimates.

The first-half net profit was up 4% over last year with net profit 15% above Morgan Stanley's forecast. The group delivered a 10% guidance beat led by a rebound in the fleet and novated volumes and strong income on elevated used vehicle pricing. 

No guidance was provided but the broker thinks there exists upside risk to the group's second-half earnings.

Overweight rating with the target rising to $3 from $2.30. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.35
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of Citi's estimates. The broker notes the market was sceptical about delivery, despite scrap prices moving up sharply, and has been proved wrong.

Margin improvement was driven by active margin management and higher prices, despite lower sales revenue and volumes.

Moreover, the outlook is positive and cost savings are on track to exceed $70m in FY21 compared with FY19. Citi raises FY21 and FY22 estimates by 63% and 2%, respectively. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $13.70 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.70 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGM as Neutral (3) -

Operating income for the first half was $56m, ahead of Credit Suisse's expected $45m. The net profit at $37m also beat the broker's forecast of $26m. An interim dividend of 12c was announced.

The beat was across all metal divisions (except Australia and New Zealand) on greater ferrous margins, volumes and cost outs. The broker expects the government stimulus and consumption-led recovery to continue to drive global steel demand and demand for iron and non-iron scrap. 

Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating. Target rises to $13.35 from $13.

Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGM as Equal-weight (3) -

Sims delivered a better than expected result, observes Morgan Stanley, but with elevated uncertainty, a conviction view is difficult at this stage.

Sims' first-half operating income was 48% above the broker's estimate while sales revenue declined -10% over last year due to lower sales volumes and mix. An interim dividend of 12c was significantly higher than the expected 7c.

Management highlighted intake growth in ferrous volumes with the cost-out program expected to remain on track to deliver $70m in annual savings in FY21.

Equal-weight rating retained wth a target of $15.50. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.75
If SGM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGM as Hold (3) -

Sims reported a first-half FY21 underlying net profit of $37m, ahead of Ord Minnett’s $27m forecast. A fully franked interim dividend of 12 cents was declared, also ahead of the broker's 5 cent estimate.

At the divisional level, the SA Recycling joint venture in the US and the UK numbers beat the broker's forecasts, while Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) came in lower than expected.

While market conditions remain strong given buoyant scrap prices, the analyst is cautious with the share price up almost 50% since October and believes these conditions are reflected in the market valuation.

Ord Minnett retains its Hold rating with the target increasing to $14.50 from $13.80.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $0.75
If SGM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SGM as Buy (1) -

First half results beat estimates, with underlying net profit 15% ahead of forecasts. Non-ferrous volumes weakened, affected by coronavirus restrictions and remained weak into January. This is expected to eventually normalise.

If not for this aspect, margins could have been even higher, the broker notes. Investor interest is slowly returning and UBS believes momentum will now depend on consistency in earnings and more evidence of rising Chinese imports.

Buy retained. Target rises to $15 from $14.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $13.75 Difference: $1.25
If SGM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.74, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STA as Add (1) -

Morgans includes value for Tajiri for the first time and reduces dividend forecasts (to retain cash for Tanzanian projects) while adjusting for near term forecast foreign exchange rates.

The broker retains the Add rating for Strandline Resources and the target rises to $0.39 from $0.38.

The company has secured take or pay off-take for the bulk of its early production (circa 72% of forecast revenue over the first five years). Off-takes cover 100% of ilmentite (low grade titanium) and zircon concentrates and the bulk of the premium zircon.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.19
If STA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Super Retail delivered net profit of $177.1 million, up 139% year on year, at the top end of the pre-reported 1H21 earnings guidance ($174 - $177 million). A 33 cps dividend was declared, lower than Citi forecasts (46.5cps) as the 42% payout ratio was materially lower than the traditional range of 55% - 65%.

At first glance, Citi notes that while focus of the result is on the upbeat trading update, with all divisions delivering upbeat trading updates in the first 7 weeks of 2H21, the outlook commentary is cautious.

Citi expects broadly neutral FY21 consensus revisions, as the better than expected trading update is offset by downside risk to gross margins and upside to cost of doing business growth.

The Buy rating price target of $14 remain unchanged.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.58 Difference: $2.42
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

In an initial assessment, what caught Macquarie's eye about Super Retail Group's first-half numbers was the jump of 122% in the group's operating income to $256m. Online sales were up 87% while gross margin expanded by circa 270bps. 

The broker notes a strong start to the second half with the group's like for like sales driven by an acceleration in BCF's momentum. Super Retail Group expects promotional activity to normalise as inventory levels recover.

Neutral rating is maintained with a target of $11.70.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $11.58 Difference: $0.12
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.82, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

First half operating earnings were ahead of expectations. Macquarie assesses Seven West Media is leveraged to a cyclical recovery and the debt overhang should be resolved in the next 6-12 months.

The company has signalled third quarter TV revenue should be up 7-10%. The main risks, in the broker's view, include delays in sports (Olympics) because of the pandemic and the inability to convert audience to revenue share.

FY21 estimates are raised by 33% and FY22 by 17%. Target is raised to $0.62 from $0.32. Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.04
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TGR as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse saw no surprises in Tassal Group's first-half result except confirmation that the expected impact from weak global salmon prices more than offset the increased production volumes.

The broker's outlook remains unchanged with short-term risk and earnings drag expected to persist while covid continues to impact prices across export channels. The forcus remains on what the group could look like in FY22 and beyond.

Outperform rating maintained with a target of $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.44
If TGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TGR as Buy (1) -

First half results were broadly in line with UBS estimates amid significant impacts from the pandemic on both domestic and global markets.

UBS envisages a high probability of an export price recovery over FY22-23 but also assesses risks exist across the broader business as debt levels are likely to remain elevated.

Salmon export earnings per kilo were down -25% and export operating earnings of $9.5m excluded additional freight charges. These challenges are expected to continue. UBS retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $4.05 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.05 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.59
If TGR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22: