Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes 4DMedical announced new contract wins, $13.9m capital raising and cost-cuts of -$6.5m since March.

Commentary suggests the contract with Intermountain Health vindicates the wide range of the company's product suite. Cost-cutting program of -$6.5m includes -18% cut to FTEs to 117.

The broker remains positive on the company's long-term prosects, but takes a conservative view due lack of revenue visibility and funding challenges.

Speculative Buy. Target cut to $0.76 from $1.00. 

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.46
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 153% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

ANZ Bank reported a 1H25 bottom line 'beat', boosted by improved asset quality, Citi explains in its first take following today's release.

Cash earnings for the period came in below expectations by -2% but were above consensus by 1%, while revenue missed consensus by -1.5% due to softer markets revenue. Improved cost management offset the slight revenue slip, the analyst states.

The CET1 ratio of 11.8% was in line and above the range target, with around $0.8bn in share buy-backs outstanding. Interim DPS came in at 83c, which met expectations with a 69% payout.

Citi notes underlying credit quality is robust. Restructured home loan facilities underpinned new impaired assets, and there was a single-name agri impairment.

Stock is Neutral rated. Target $27.50, with the analyst anticipating a lift in higher costs versus lower bad and doubtful debts.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $29.98 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.33, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

In a snapshot analysis of ANZ Bank's 1H25 result, UBS notes cash earnings were in line with its forecast and consensus.

Operating income missed the broker's forecast by -1.3%, but this was offset by cost performance, which was 0.8% better than expected.

Net interest margin at 1.56% missed the broker's forecast by -3bps. Both diluted EPS and DPS came in line. 

Neutral. Target unchanged at $31.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.98 Difference: $1.02
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.33, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter details Bega Cheese's plans for the cost-out program, including the consolidation of Strathmerton and Ridge Street facilities, reducing cut-and-wrap capacity with cost cuts of -$30m.

Capex on Ridge Street is highlighted as $50m, with the closure of Strathmerton generating a forecast EPS accretion of around 2cps or a 7–8% uplift in the broker's FY27 estimate.

The company also announced a lift in its 2024–25 farmgate milk price of 10c/kgMS (milk solids), which raises the range to $8.15–$8.45/kgMS.

Bell Potter tweaks net profit after tax estimates for capital initiatives, lower interest rates, and changes in commodity prices. The FY26 forecast slips by -3% and FY27 lifts by 5%; FY25 is unchanged.

Buy rating and $7 target retained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.93 Difference: $1.07
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.06, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights used car sales in Brazil rose 13% year-on-year in April, and while it was a slight slowing from March's 17% rise, April was impacted by Easter holidays and a higher base. Plus, the growth was higher than 10% annually in the March quarter.

The broker reckons the data are a positive for CAR Group and has a forecast for growth of 28% on a year earlier for Webmotors in 2H25 vs 30% growth in 1H.

Buy. Target price $42.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $34.48 Difference: $7.52
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.30, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has factored in revised earnings forecasts for Seqirus (vaccines) following recent results from CSL's rivals. Those updates discussed strong price competition and low vaccination rates in the American market.

The broker also notes Vinay Prasad's appointment as the head of the US FDA's Center for Biologics Evaluation & Research. Its analysis suggests Prasad is not against broad-based influenza immunisation, though he is skeptical of much of the clinical data.

Forecasts are now for a -24% decline in Seqirus earnings in FY26 from FY25, struck on flat revenue. Buy. Target unchanged at $310.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $242.98 Difference: $67.02
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $327.51, suggesting upside of 36.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Commenting on the March quarter report from gold stocks, Morgans broker believes the results were underwhelming, with several producers missing on production and cost.

The broker believes Evolution Mining has upside potential from gold and copper price tailwinds, but sees it as fully valued at the current price.

Hold. Target unchanged at $8.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.11, suggesting downside of -17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners reiterates a Buy, High Risk rating and $1.90 target price on FireFly Metals following strong extensional drilling results at its Green Bay Copper-Gold project.

Intercepts such as 12.4m at 6.8% copper equivalent significantly exceed the current 2% average grade and point to mineralisation well beyond existing resource boundaries, note the analysts.

The Green Bay resource currently stands at 59mt at 2% copper equivalent, including 1mt copper, 550koz gold, and 5.4moz silver, with 41% classified as Measured and Indicated.

A resource upgrade is expected in the September quarter, with Shaw forecasting sufficient scale to support a 15-year mine life at a 2mtpa production rate.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $1.02
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HMC as Hold (3) -

At the 3Q25 trading update, HMC Capital announced FY25 operating EPS is currently at 66c. Morgans notes this compares with 70c disclosed in April and 80c at the February update.

The fall is mainly due to the mark-to-market of the investment holdings and financial assets.

The company flagged 46c underlying and recurring revenue in FY26, which is in line with the broker's estimate, with scope for upside if fund performance or inflows improve.

The broker lowered FY25 forecasts, resulting in a -18% decline in the FY25 net profit forecast and a -2% fall in FY26.

Hold. Target cut to $5.20 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $0.11
If HMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting upside of 58.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating and a $5.90 target price on Iluka Resources, seeing the current market cap as undervaluing the business.

Management at the recent investor briefing suggested the current share price just reflects the company’s $1bn in mineral sands inventory and 20% stake in Deterra Royalties ((DRR)), valued at circa $400m.

The broker prefers to anchor its valuation to earnings, noting Iluka remains long on asset value but light on earnings and free cash flow.

The Eneabba refinery remains the key uncertainty and potential catalyst, with market concerns around cost overruns, ramp-up challenges, and downstream processing capacity in the West, explain the analysts.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $1.79
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 24.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi notes JB Hi-Fi's third quarter report reveals the company is trading slightly below the broker's 2H25 earnings expectations.

The company reported 2Q25 like-for-like sales growth of 6%, which met consensus but came in below the analyst's forecast of 7% for 2H25.

The Good Guys' like-for-like sales momentum slowed to 4.1% in the period versus 5.9% in the January trading update, implying February and March like-for-like sales growth of circa 3%, well below consensus at 5.3% for 2H25 and the analyst's forecast of 6%.

JB Hi-Fi NZ also reported a decline in like-for-like sales growth to 7.5% from 10% in the trading update, but Citi adds this remains above expectations.

The analyst anticipates some consensus earnings downgrades, notably for The Good Guys, and expects the stock to trade lower today.

Target $110. Buy rated. The analyst tweaks EPS estimates by -0.3% for FY25/FY26.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $103.45 Difference: $6.55
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $95.66, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

JB Hi-Fi’s 3Q25 update showed a deceleration in like-for-like sales growth across major divisions, highlights Morgan Stanley. JB Australia like-for-like sales rose 6.0% (down from 7.2% in 1H25), in line with 2H consensus.

The Good Guys grew 4.1% (below 2H consensus of 5.3%), while JB New Zealand posted a stronger 7.5%. Management noted continued sales momentum despite a challenging and competitive retail environment.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and a $73.60 target price. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $73.60 Current Price is $103.45 Difference: minus $29.85 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.66, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Hold (3) -

Morgans notes JB Hi-Fi's 3Q25 sales of 6% y/y were solid, but it also reflected a slowing in Feb/March sales from the 7.1% growth in January.

New Zealand sales rose 7.5% y/y, beating the broker's 3.0% forecast, though this also indicated a slowing in Feb/March vs January. Good Guys performed in line with expectations.

The broker made minor downward revisions to FY25 forecasts. Hold. Target unchanged at $92.

Target price is $92.00 Current Price is $103.45 Difference: minus $11.45 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.66, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Sell (5) -

UBS notes JB Hi-Fi's 3Q25 update showed sales growth slowed in the March quarter compared with the strength in January. The broker attributed this to cautious households, challenging comps, and the trend of sales concentration in key months.

Still, the broker remains confident gross margin compression will be managed in 2H25 like in 1H25.

The analyst cut FY25 EBIT margin by -4bps and FY26 by -3bps. EPS forecast for FY25 lowered by -1.2% and by -1.1% for FY26.

Target price rises to $95 from $90 as the broker incorporated a higher FY26 EV/EBIT multiple of 14.6x vs 14.1x prior.

Sell unchanged.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $103.45 Difference: minus $8.45 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $95.66, suggesting downside of -7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Lunnon Metals has released an initial Mineral Resource estimate of 29koz at 1.6g/t Au for the Lady Herial deposit, exceeding Shaw and Partners' prior expectations.

The resource is shallow, high-grade, and nearly half classified as Measured, with gross cash flow potential of circa $90m (100% basis) at prevailing gold prices, explain the analysts.

The company is fast-tracking development, with a mine plan in progress, grade control drilling, and processing negotiations underway with Gold Fields and others.

Importantly, the broker assesses the current valuation does not yet reflect this gold potential, with Shaw’s price target based solely on the Baker Nickel Project.

Overall, Shaw sees near-term cash generation from Lady Herial and long-term upside from broader regional exploration.

A Buy, High Risk rating and a 60c target price are maintained.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.375
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Minerals 260 with a Speculative Buy rating and a 28c target price.

Minerals 260 is a Perth-based exploration and development company which acquired 100% of the Bullabulling Gold Project and Norton Gold Fields in January 2025.

Commentary highlights the cost for Bullabulling was -$166.5m and brings forth a past-producing gold mine with a 2.3moz at 1.2g/t Au mineral resource.

The broker envisages an open pit mine generating 130–150kozpa over a 10-year mine life using conventional mining methods.

Bell Potter highlights the company has started an 80,000m drilling program to affirm confidence in the size of the existing resource, and the stock currently screens as attractively priced relative to peers, the analyst states.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.15
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 115% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NAB as Sell (5) -

National Australia Bank's 1H25 revenue missed expectations and underlying revenue missed Citi's forecast by -1.5% as the top-line got a boost from a recovery in Markets & Treasury business (M&T).

Net interest margin (NIM) also got a boost from M&T, but excluding that, the -3bps decline was in line with Westpac's ((WBC)) 1H25 outcome.

The broker assesses the lower cost to be a result of a 2H skew. Bad debt charge of -$348m was better than anticipated.

Overall, the broker expects a small downgrade to the top-line forecast, noting underlying weakness considering modest NIM miss and the stronger contribution from M&T.

Sell. Target unchanged at $30.50. Citi lifts EPS estimates by 0.5% in FY25 and 0.7% in FY26.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $35.87 Difference: minus $5.37 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

National Australia Bank delivered a 1H25 result which slightly beat Macquarie's expectations at the cash earnings line due to lower impairment charges, although underlying revenue and margin trends were soft.

The bank saw stabilisation in its proprietary mortgage book and strong deposit growth, but credit quality metrics continued to deteriorate, especially in business lending, explains the analyst.

Macquarie believes NAB is better positioned than peers for a lower interest rate environment, with smaller expected margin compression in FY26-27. However, capital buffers remain tight, and a dividend cut is anticipated in 1H27.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and a $35.00 target price, citing NAB’s relatively better margin outlook offset by weaker credit trends and capital constraints.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $35.87 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NAB as Reduce (5) -

Morgans notes National Australia Bank's cash earnings growth in 1H24 was ahead of expectations but it was due to cost skew to 2H and higher Markets & Treasury (M&T) contribution.

Net interest margin, excluding M&T was down -3bps and while the bank flagged 3-4bps contribution from hedge portfolios in 2H, the broker expects this to peter out beyond 1H26.

The broker believes higher dividends and new buybacks are unlikely given the CET1 capital constraint. FY25-27 EPS forecasts upgraded but terminal forecasts cut due to lower interest rate forecast vs before.

Reduce. Target cut to $28.01 from $29.07.

Target price is $28.01 Current Price is $35.87 Difference: minus $7.86 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NAB as Lighten (4) -

National Australia Bank’s interim earnings beat Ord Minnett's expectations, driven by a strong contribution from its Markets and Treasury division. 

The release of covid-related bad debt provisions offset underlying weakness in business banking, explains the analyst. The interim dividend of 85c met expectations.

Management guided to lower FY25 operating cost growth versus FY24.

Business banking, NAB’s core segment, is under pressure as rivals such as Westpac ((WBC)) and CommBank ((CBA)) gain market share, with NAB’s loan growth merely matching system growth, observes the broker.

Non-performing loans have risen to 3% of the business book. Group NIM was flat at 1.7%, though excluding Treasury and Markets, the  underlying net interest margin (NIM) contracted -3bps.

Ord Minnett lifts FY25 EPS forecasts by 7.2%, with modest upgrades to FY26 and FY27. Despite the 'beat', the broker maintains a Lighten rating on valuation grounds, with a $33.00 target price.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $35.87 Difference: minus $2.87 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -

Following a deeper analysis of National Australia Bank's 1H25 result, UBS believes it was a good result, easing concerns around management changes, lost market share in business lending and soft 1Q update.

One key headwind for the bank, commentary suggests, is the competitive backdrop for business banking, where its competitors are showing more commitment than in previous cycles amid a challenging macro backdrop.

The biggest surprise for the broker was a 9bps credit loss ratio, which compared with longer-term average of 16bps. With provisions in excess of base case scenarios, the analyst expects lower changes over the forecast period.

The broker cut cash earnings forecasts for FY25-26 by -1.1% and -0.8%, respectively, mainly on a lower net interest margin assumption.  FY27 forecast was upgraded by 1.2%. 

Neutral. Target unchanged at $37.50. 

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $35.87 Difference: $1.63
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NST as Add (1) -

Commenting on the March quarter report from gold stocks, Morgans broker believes the results were underwhelming, with several producers missing on production and cost.

The broker believes the sell-off in Northern Star Resources was overdone and reiterates the stock as its preferred gold major.

Add. Target cut to $25.15 from $25.32.

Target price is $25.15 Current Price is $19.43 Difference: $5.72
If NST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.53, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORI as Buy (1) -

Citi's first take on Orica's 1H25 report is that an upside surprise has been delivered, with the broker stating the company achieved a strong result with underlying EPS growth of over 30% and earnings before interest and tax at $472m, above consensus at $448m (Citi at $435m).

Blasting solutions advanced by 29% on the previous period, well in excess of expectations due to a positive mix across regional margins.

Negatives included lower than forecast 1H25 revenue, some -2% to -4% below expectations due to a reduced LATAM contribution, the analyst details, as well as a miss on specialty mining chemicals, which is attributed by Citi to a slower than expected sales ramp-up post-maintenance.

Management offered no change to earnings guidance. Buy rated with $18.90 target price.

Target price is $18.90 Current Price is $16.77 Difference: $2.13
If ORI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.07, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Buy (1) -

In a snapshot analysis of Orica's 1H25 result, UBS assesses the performance as strong, driven by ongoing blasting product adoption. Cash flow was solid, supporting the company's $400m share buyback program.

While overall revenue missed the broker's forecast by -4%, EBIT beat by 4%. EPS and DPS also beat the broker's forecast by 8% and 22%, respectively.

Leverage came in at 1.45x vs the broker's 1.3x forecast but within the company's target of 1.25-2.0x.

Buy. Target unchanged at $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $16.77 Difference: $5.23
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.07, suggesting upside of 17.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Add (1) -

Commenting on the March quarter report from gold stocks, Morgans believes the results were underwhelming, with several producers missing on production and cost.

The broker is, however, impressed with Regis Resources' $138m cash generation in 3Q25 before it retired the balance $300m in debt, making it a hedge and debt-free business.

The company is seen as well-positioned to beat FY25 guidance for Tropicana. Add. Target cut to $4.46 from $4.80.

Target price is $4.46 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.06, suggesting downside of -16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKC as Outperform (1) -

SkyCity Entertainment has downgraded FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to NZ$216m, -8% from the prior midpoint, following a weaker March trading period, especially in the New Zealand consumer segment, explains Macquarie.

Mandatory Carded Play (MCP) is set to roll out by July 2025 and may reduce uncarded revenues by -5-7%, notes the analyst. 

Despite the downgrade, Macquarie sees upside from online gaming (launch expected in 2H26), asset monetisation options, and improving consumer sentiment from recent rate cuts.

However, the balance sheet is under pressure, observes the broker. Net debt/EBITDA is forecast to peak at 3.5x times in FY26, near covenant limits, and the broker factors in a potential -$75m fine related to the Adelaide compliance review. 

Overall, Macquarie suggests medium-term earnings catalysts are skewed to the upside and believes there is covenant headroom, despite increasing leverage.

No change to Outperform rating. The target falls by -6% to NZ$1.45.

Current Price is $0.99. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SLX as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Uranium enrichment trials at Silex Systems' Wilmington, North Carolina pilot plant have been delayed by three months due to facility modifications. Shaw and Partners believes the recent -13% share price drop (largely recovered yesterday) is an overreaction.

Successful trials would materially de-risk the SILEX laser enrichment technology, in the broker's opinion, and could trigger Cameco’s option to raise its GLE joint venture stake to 75% from 49%.

Silex is progressing with commercialisation, including a full-scale module at Paducah and expanded manufacturing capability.

The company is well funded with $93.1m cash and recently received an initial $0.5m from the US Department of Energy as part of a potential US$3.4bn LEU enrichment program, observe the analysts.

Shaw expects uranium prices to rise through 2025 and continues to view Silex as a high-conviction exposure to the nuclear fuel cycle.

Buy, High risk rating and $6.50 target maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $3.52
If SLX meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SRG as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans has initiated coverage of SRG Global with an Add rating and target price of $1.80.

The broker notes the company has a track record of consistent EPS growth, with a significant portion coming from organic growth. Its acquisition strategy has been prudent, with the company aiming for a net cash position before making another acquisition.

The analyst expects the company's maintenance division to benefit from clients' preference for specialist providers even though the forecast for maintenance work is for flat growth from FY25 onwards.

The broker expects organic growth to be supplemented by continued prudent acquisition, and at 13x forecast FY25 PE, this does not appear to be priced in.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.5
If SRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.62, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

Super Retail's trading for the nine months to April is tracking below Citi's forecast for 2H25 in Rebel and Macpac brands. Sales momentum in BCF is ahead of the broker's forecast.

Overall, gross group margin is below the broker's estimate but in line with or marginally ahead of consensus. The analysts expect -1-2% downgrade to the consensus 2H25 sales and EBIT forecasts.

Commentary suggests the bigger focus will be on the FY26 forecast given guidance for -$29m project costs. Buy. Target unchanged at $18.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: $4.6
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Super Retail Group’s 3Q25 update showed a mixed trading performance, assesses Morgan Stanley, with subdued retail conditions outside of BCF and a strong Easter period.

BCF delivered strong like-for-like (LFL) growth of 9.1%, outperforming the broker's expectations, while Rebel rose 3.5% but missed consensus. Supercheap Auto was flat at -0.1%, in line with 1H25 and Macpac declined slightly at -0.1%, missing expectations

Group gross margins remain under pressure, observe the analysts, tracking below the prior year and consistent with a circa -70bps decline in 1H25.

FY25 group cost guidance is unchanged, while FY26 costs are expected to worsen by around -$18m due to distribution centre duplication and HR system investment.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating and a $12.20 target price, citing ongoing margin and cost pressures. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $13.40 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.59, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TNE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades TechnologyOne to Hold from Buy while lifting the target price to $31 from $29 due to an expected robust result at the upcoming May 20 market update, plus a higher valuation ascribed to the stock, alongside its safe haven status.

The broker expects the company to post a strong report and forecasts 14% growth in revenue with profit before tax growth of 19%, on a rise in margin to 26.4% from 25.1% a year earlier.

Management is also anticipated to back up the result with strong guidance for FY25 (year to September) and profit before tax of 14%–18%, which is above FY24 at 12%–16%.

Market consensus is anticipating growth in profit before tax of 19% in FY25, so the analyst believes even guidance upgrades by management will not result in consensus upgrades.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $31.55 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.41, suggesting downside of -8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

Temple & Webster reported 18% year-on-year sales growth for 2H FY25 to-date, slightly below consensus of 21.5%, but with momentum accelerating to 23% from March to early May, observes Morgan Stanley.

Home improvement sales surged 42%, and the earnings (EBITDA) margin is tracking towards the upper end of FY25 guidance, highlights the broker.

The company is benefiting from deflationary shipping rates (down circa -20) amid a positive macro backdrop, including lower interest rates and supportive housing policy, explains Morgan Stanley.

These factors, alongside strong category expansion and market share gains, underpin a constructive outlook, in the broker's view.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating and a $18.50 target price, citing Temple & Webster’s dominant online market position, strong unit economics, and high-growth optionality. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.60 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.91, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Viridis Mining and Minerals reported a soft March quarter, highlights Ord Minnett, with exploration expenditure slowing and a remaining cash balance of only $2.5m, equivalent to 1.3 quarters of funding.

Management is seeking development grants from Brazilian government-aligned agencies to support feasibility work on its Colossus project. Even with this support the broker believes equity raisings will be needed to fund ongoing operations.

Ord Minnett has delayed its assumed mine construction start to 2027 and revised down equity issuance assumptions to 27c/share fom $1.75. The target price is reduced to 50c from $1.00.

The key near-term catalyst, in the broker's view, is securing government or development agency funding by late 2025.

Ord Minnett retains a Speculative Buy rating based on takeover potential.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.23
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

WiseTech Global is participating in E2open's strategic review process, and Morgan Stanley believes any such deal could make strategic sense as it would open a new market for long-term growth.

However, the key risk is integration as the company's strategy is to keep a single code, single platform vs E2open's multiple products.

The broker notes the company could fund the deal with cash and debt, which would be earnings accretive.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $140.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $91.72 Difference: $48.28
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources