Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound, with some short-term upside for copper.

The target for 29Metals falls to 80c from $1.15 on a slower-than-expected ramp-up for Capricorn Copper and changes in valuation methodology. The Equal-weight rating is retained as balance sheet risks remain. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.94, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 3PL as Overweight (1) -

Despite positive trading in the APAC and AMER regions, 3P Learning has lowered FY23 revenue guidance by around -$6m to $107m (middle of guidance range), compared to Morgan Stanley's $112m forecast.

Thanks to cost management, the company still expects to achieve the lower end of FY23 earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $15-18m.

Morgan Stanley remains Overweight with a $1.60 target. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.48
If 3PL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGI as Outperform (1) -

Ainsworth Game Technology is increasing investment in R&D and has recently added four new game studios. Macquarie notes the potential benefits are some time away but, importantly, the balance sheet and cash generation supports the strategy.

The company will end its exclusive North American online content distribution agreement with GAN Ltd and Macquarie estimates this will have a -$7m impact on pre-tax profit.

Still, with greater flexibility for distribution the broker expects a progressive recovery over the medium term. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.25 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.205
If AGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

AGL Energy has updated guidance for FY23 to the upper end of the prior range and provided earnings guidance for FY24 of $580-780m.

The magnitude of the earnings upside in FY24 is a surprise to Macquarie as it brings forward the growth that had been expected in FY25 from electricity prices.

Subsequently traditional price leverage will be harder. Given a conservative dividend policy, amid limited capital expenditure in the next two years, the broker anticipates debt will be reduced.

The main challenge over the longer term is to replace earnings over FY28-30 from the loss of low-cost gas and coal contracts. Outperform maintained. Target is raised to $11.59 from $9.61.

Target price is $11.59 Current Price is $11.04 Difference: $0.55
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.19, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

UBS's quarterly consumer survey of 1000 adults' intentions for the next six months points to an easing in demand for new vehicles to their lowest levels since the June 2021 quarter, while the preference for used cars grew.

The broker says high income earners led the downward shift and expected the trend should flow through to lower consumer debts. Meanwhile, EV/Hybrid demand took a back step in the June quarter as internal combustion engines gained favour. On the upside, respondents still planned to raise their spending over a 12-month period.

The broker applies the finding to the autos and aftermarkets sectors. UBS's least preferred company is Eagers Automotive, flagging margin concerns. Otherwise the broker perceives the company to be trading at fair value and observes a growing order book in the June half.

Neutral rating and $13 target price retained.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $12.95 Difference: $0.05
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.41, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

UBS's quarterly consumer survey of 1000 adults' intentions for the next six months points to an easing in demand for new vehicles to their lowest levels since the June 2021 quarter, while the preference for used cars grew.

The broker says high income earners led the downward shift and expected the trend should flow through to lower consumer debts. Meanwhile, EV/Hybrid demand took a back step in the June quarter as internal combustion engines gained favour. On the upside, respondents still planned to raise their spending over a 12-month period.

The broker applies the finding to the autos and aftermarkets sectors and favours Autosports Group among the dealers, appreciating the company's resilience; luxury exposure and limited risk. EPS forecasts rise 1% in FY24; and 4% in FY25.

Buy rating retained on valuation grounds. Target price eases to $2.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.06 Difference: $0.74
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 43.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Overweight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound. Falling input costs lead to a flattish alumina outlook though the Indonesian bauxite export ban remains in focus.

For Alumina Ltd, Morgan Stanley the target falls to $1.65 from $1.70 on changes to alumina and aluminium price forecasts and the Overweight rating is maintained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.25
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

UBS's quarterly consumer survey of 1000 adults' intentions for the next six months points to an easing in demand for new vehicles to their lowest levels since the June 2021 quarter, while the preference for used cars grew.

The broker says high income earners led the downward shift and expected the trend should flow through to lower consumer debts. Meanwhile, EV/Hybrid demand took a back step in the June quarter as internal combustion engines gained favour. On the upside, respondents still planned to raise their spending over a 12-month period.

The broker applies the finding to the autos and aftermarkets sectors and finds modest risk for Bapcor given the tougher discretionary retail outlook, combined with lower margins in trade (the broker sits -4% below consensus). UBS expects the aftermarket will hold up better but slow nonetheless. 

EPS forecasts fall -6% in FY24; and -5% in FY25. Buy rating retained, the company trading near historical lows. Target price falls to $7.20 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.04 Difference: $1.16
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.32, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes BHP Group is on track with its decarbonisation strategy, set for -30% emissions reduction by FY30. The company has provided further clarity on its decarbonisation plans at the asset level which the broker believes will be well received.

Yet uncertainties exist for the longer term as further reduction in carbon emissions would rely on new technologies not yet available.

The Chilean operations will focus on diesel displacement at its boilers and truck fleet while Australian assets will prioritise renewable power purchasing and decarbonisation at its trucks and locomotives.

Outperform and $52 target retained.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $46.22 Difference: $5.78
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.82, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For iron ore, the analysts suggest China stimulus will likely have a lagged impact on demand, though the recent price bounce seems overdone in light of expected production cuts in the second half of 2023.

Morgan Stanley prefers Rio Tinto over BHP Group on higher growth. The target for BHP Group rises to $45 from $41.75 on a higher weighting toward the broker's bull case and on potential upside for iron ore.

The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $46.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.82, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BSL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi envisages upside risk to North Star earnings guidance in the second half of FY23 amid downside risk to Australian steel products because of weak export pricing.

Earnings forecasts for BlueScope Steel are unchanged but the broker highlights the demand risk for domestic tonnage in 2024 because of weak Australian housing approvals.

In terms of US steel prices, which have moderated from high levels, Citi believes the price is hovering at its nadir for this recent cycle. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy as the shares have rallied 26% since the December 2022 lows. Target is steady at $23.50.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $21.08 Difference: $2.42
If BSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.62, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring companies with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference.

Charter Hall is one the broker's least preferred companies. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $12.30. EPS forecasts fall -2% in FY23; -8% in FY24; and -9% in FY25.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $11.07 Difference: $1.23
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.45, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CLW as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail.

The broker believes gearing remains a risk for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT after June 2023 valuations fell -5.8% and does not consider the yield sufficient to justify the risk. The broker expects asset recycling given balance sheet constraints.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target price falls to $4.27 from $4.39.

Target price is $4.27 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.06
If CLW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.73, suggesting upside of 16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CNI as Neutral (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. 

UBS retains a Neutral rating on Centuria Capital. Target price falls to $1.70 from $2.00. EPS forecasts are steady for FY23 and fall -4% and -3% in FY24 and FY25.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 24.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. 

Centuria Office REIT is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, the broker considering its -29% discount compelling and the broker observes the company's balance sheet is strong enough to withstand higher interest rates and asset-value falls. 

Target price falls -9% to $1.60. EPS forecasts are steady for FY23 and fall -8% in FY24; and -6% in FY25.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.165
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CQR as Neutral (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. 

Charter Hall Retail REIT is one of UBS's top discretionary retail picks, the broker preferring assets with low capital expenditure and rent, and high land value and development yields with resilient distributions heading into a more defensive investor attitude given expectations of weakening consumer sentiment.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $3.86 from $4.14. EPS forecasts are steady in FY23; and fall -3% in FY24 and FY25.

Target price is $3.86 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.17
If CQR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CWY as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie welcomes the investor briefing that showed Cleanaway Waste Management has a structured and systematic execution plan which should drive incremental cultural change and better operational outcomes. The ongoing investment opportunity is substantial.

The company has reiterated its FY23 outlook while noting an ongoing recovery in BAU EBIT margins towards 12%. Capital costs have increased for EfW, which did not surprise Macquarie, although there is a potential for delay if the deteriorating conditions in the Victorian landfill market persist.

The broker maintains its Outperform rating and $3.05 target.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.33
If CWY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CWY as Lighten (4) -

Cleanaway Waste Management has made progress on its Blueprint 2030 strategy, Ord Minnett observes, with the current focus on margin recovery in resolving key issues related to labour productivity, health services and the inefficiencies in the Queensland operations.

Management has reaffirmed guidance and intends to provide a three-year EBIT growth target at its results in August. Ord Minnett still believes the shares are materially overvalued, trading at a 25% premium to its fair value estimates.

Hence, while transferring coverage to another analyst, a Lighten rating is maintained with the target steady at $2.20.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If CWY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For iron ore, the analysts suggest China stimulus will likely have a lagged impact on demand, though the recent price bounce seems overdone in light of expected production cuts in the second half of 2023.

The target for Deterra Royalties falls to $4.75 from $4.95 on updated iron ore price forecasts. Equal-weight Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.14
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.57, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Dexus has announced a total estimated decrease of -$1bn, or -6%, on prior book values for the six months to June 30, 2023. Capitalisation rates were up 32 basis points for office and 31 basis points for the industrial portfolio, with industrial benefiting from strong rental growth.

Citi expects capitalisation rates will increase further into the second half of 2023, observing a key debate in the market is what is priced into the share price discount.

FY23 earnings forecasts and target of $8 are maintained as valuations appear more stable than the current implied -33% discount. The broker decreases FY24 and FY25 estimates by -2% and -2.5%, respectively, incorporating higher finance costs.  Neutral.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.11, suggesting upside of 15.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

Regarding gold, the broker expects the price will be steady around current levels and by the first half of 2024 extra support should arrive via softer real yields and a weaker US dollar.

Morgan Stanley adjusts its gold and copper forecasts for Evolution Mining, but leaves its $3.95 target and Overweight rating unchanged. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: $0.6
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

Fletcher Building has lowered EBIT guidance for FY23 to NZ$800m, now in line with Macquarie's expectations. The quality of the earnings looks "reasonable" to the broker.

Second half volumes in Australasia were likely to have been impacted by de-stocking and weather. Meanwhile, the commercial and infrastructure outlook in New Zealand appears robust.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating, noting the stock has materially de-rated against its peers yet it is a better business now than at any time since coverage commenced. Target is reduced to NZ$7.70 from NZ$7.79.

Current Price is $4.77. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes caution is still warranted for Fletcher Building shares and retains its Equal-weight rating following a downgrade to FY23 earnings (EBIT) guidance due to inclement weather and softer market activity.

While this downgrade was in line with market expectations, the analyst feels management's assumptions on FY24 volume declines and future mid-cycle levels may prove optimistic.

With the cycle past peak levels, the broker sees risk to earnings and sentiment as activity softens.

The target rises to $5.09 from $5.00. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $4.77 Difference: $0.32
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett suggests a buying opportunity could emerge with Flight Centre Travel, which provided an update on global leisure that was generally in line with the sector.

The broker points out investors naturally gravitate to stocks they believe are cum upgrade and when this fails to eventuate selling results because of the crowded nature of the trade.

Hence, the share price reaction overshadowed what the broker believes was an "excellent" presentation and an improved level of transparency.

Ord Minnett suspects the company's confidence in revenue margin improvement relates to an increasing portion of non-air products sold relative to pre-pandemic levels. Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten. Target is steady at $19.71.

Target price is $19.71 Current Price is $19.90 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.52, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For iron ore, the analysts suggest China stimulus will likely have a lagged impact on demand, though the recent price bounce seems overdone in light of expected production cuts in the second half of 2023.

Morgan Stanley notes Fortescue Metals is trading in line withe base metals-exposed higher quality peers in Rio Tinto and BHP Group despite potentially lower price realisations and the risks surrounding spending at Fortescue Future Industries.

The Underweight rating is unchanged while the target rises to $16.80 from $14.10 on a higher weighting to the broker's bull case scenario and expectations for China stimulus. 

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: minus $5.6 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.72, suggesting downside of -24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GOZ as Buy (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia has upgraded FY23 guidance to 26.7c per security, broadly in line with expectations. Citi notes valuations are down -3.6% in June compared with December 2022. Both office and industrial capitalisation rates are at 5.5%.

Citi expects capitalisation rates will increase further into the second half of 2023, observing a key debate in the market is what is priced into the share price discount.

Growthpoint has higher gearing compared with sector peers and, in the broker's view, is more sensitive to interest-rate risk. Estimates for FY24 and FY25 are decreased by -6.9% and -7.2%, respectively, incorporating higher finance costs.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.46
If GOZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOZ as Outperform (1) -

Growthpoint Properties Australia has upgraded FY23 guidance by 2.7% at the mid point. Macquarie had expected an upgrade but this was below its prior estimates.

The broker considers the valuation attractive, with upside if the company can achieve office leasing. Industrial exposure is also considered a positive impetus while execution on growing the funds management earnings could also improve valuation.

Gearing is now estimated to have reached at the lower end of the target range of 35-45%. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and lowers the target to $3.44 from $3.58.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.5
If GOZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Buy (1) -

UBS's quarterly consumer survey of 1000 adults' intentions for the next six months points to an easing in demand for new vehicles to their lowest levels since the June 2021 quarter, while the preference for used cars grew.

The broker says high income earners led the downward shift and expected the trend should flow through to lower consumer debts. Meanwhile, EV/Hybrid demand took a back step in the June quarter as internal combustion engines gained favour. On the upside, respondents still planned to raise their spending over a 12-month period.

The broker applies the finding to the autos and aftermarkets sectors and holds its position on G.U.D. Holdings, appreciating the company's leverage to rising new vehicle supply in the December half; and its solid core Auto business.

Buy rating retained on valuation grounds. Target price is steady at $10.50.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.95 Difference: $1.55
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.03, suggesting upside of 26.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HDN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. 

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is UBS's top discretionary retail pick, the broker preferring assets with low capital expenditure and rent, and high land value and development yields with resilient distributions heading into a more defensive investor attitude given expectations of weakening consumer sentiment.

The broker appreciates the company's long WALE, low rents, recently developed assets, low reliance on supermarket turnover for rental growth, defensive tenant mix, and high annual escalations.

UBS upgrades the company to Buy from Neutral. Target price eases -1% to $1.36 from $1.37. EPS forecasts are steady in FY23; fall -1% in FY24; and rise 2% in FY25.

The broker expects development capital expenditure over the next few years will be accretive despite high construction costs and believes the company's targeted yields on expenditure are achievable.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.175
If HDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For lithium, Morgan Stanley sees support for near-term prices from battery electric vehicle sales, though sees 2024 softening as African supply ramps up.

The broker's target for IGO rises to $14.70 from $10.50 on financial model changes and higher spodumene price forecasts for FY23-25, which more than offset the impact of lower nickel price forecasts. Equal-weight retained. Industry View: Attractive 

Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $15.09 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.84, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound, with some short-term upside for copper.

Morgan Stanley's target price for Iluka Resources rises to $10.70 from $9.50 on a higher valuation for Balranald critical minerals development as it has passed the final investment decision stage. Equal-weight.

No changes are made to the mineral sands price forecast, though a lower Australian dollar estimate provides support. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $11.62 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates INA as Neutral (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. Ingenia Communities is the broker's least favoured sector pick.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 4% to $4.22 from $4.05. EPS forecasts fall -7% in FY23; -1% in FY24; and -11% in FY25.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.18
If INA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter revises down its target price for Lynas Rare Earths after marking to market ahead of the company's quarterly report.

The broker says Lynas Rare Earths status update does not change its underlying valuations and expects the company will work through issues heading into the processing ban.

The broker observes NdPr prices are starting to recover and remains positive for the medium to long-term view.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $8.55 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.55 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.12
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.05, suggesting upside of 12.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews its modelling for Mineral Resources' Lockyer Deep, noting the NED-1 well has porosity consistent with other commercial gas discoveries while its characteristics indicate a separate field to LD-1. The broker acknowledges it's early days and no date has been set for the resource estimate.

At Red Gully, the broker's unrisked valuation assumes an initial 10TJ/day with the ramp up to 160TJ/day and gas to be sold domestically at $10/GJ.

The broker assesses energy potentially adds around $470m to EBITDA from 2027, or 10% of earnings. The broker is positive on the longer-term outlook for Mineral Resources but requires clarity that Mount Marion can deliver to expectations.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $76.50 from $77.00.

Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $73.25 Difference: $3.25
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.00, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For iron ore, the analysts suggest China stimulus will likely have a lagged impact on demand, though the recent price bounce seems overdone in light of expected production cuts in the second half of 2023.

On the lithium front, the broker sees support for near-term prices from battery electric vehicle sales, though sees 2024 softening as African supply ramps-up.

For Mineral Resources, Morgan Stanley's Equal-Weight rating is retained on a stretched balance sheet.

The broker's target rises to $78.50 from $72.00 on updated cost and production forecasts at Mt Marion and Wodgina based on recent company guidance, and higher lithium price forecasts. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $78.50 Current Price is $73.25 Difference: $5.25
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.00, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

Regarding gold, the broker expects the price will be steady around current levels and by the first half of 2024 extra support should arrive via softer real yields and a weaker US dollar.

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Newcrest Mining to $26.30 from $27.50 on adjustments to its gold and copper forecasts. The broker feels catalysts for the company are largely priced-in and retains its Equal-weight rating. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $26.40 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.20, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

Regarding gold, the broker expects the price will be steady around current levels and by the first half of 2024 extra support should arrive via softer real yields and a weaker US dollar.

Morgan Stanley lowers its rating for Northern Star Resources to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation and feels the sole catalyst - the KCGM mill expansion - is already incorporated in the share price.

The target falls to $13.15 from $13.65.  Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $13.15 Current Price is $13.04 Difference: $0.11
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium's partner, Sayona Mining, in the North American Lithium joint venture has announced preliminary results for its carbonate plant. Macquarie notes the study has assumed market prices for spodumene transfer from the mining operations to the carbonate plant.

A definitive technical study is now being advanced with commissioning planned for 2026. The study has assumed a concentrate feed grade of 6% lithium with an annual production rate of around 23,600tpa.

Macquarie expects cash flow from the offtake to be generated as production ramps up, which should enable the company to self fund its remaining share of the Ewoyaa project and the Tennessee lithium hydroxide plant. Outperform retained. Target is $1.90.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.995
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For lithium, Morgan Stanley sees support for near-term prices from battery electric vehicle sales, though sees 2024 softening as African supply ramps up.

The broker's target for Pilbara Minerals rises to $4.15 from $3.15 on higher spodumene price forecasts and a higher weighting in valuation towards the broker's bull case scenario.

The Underweight rating is maintained on valuation, low downstream integration and a lower free cash flow yield by comparison to IGO.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PMV as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

As the share price of Premier Investments has moved through Ord Minnett's trigger level, its rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten.

The target is $19.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $20.01 Difference: minus $1.01 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.92, suggesting upside of 30.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PWR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees a range of positives in Peter Warren Automotive seeking to acquire around 87% of the Warwick Farm and Bathurst dealerships for $45m via debt funding.

Because the transactions are with related parties, integration risk with familiar operations should be low, suggest the analysts, and elevated backlogs provide heightened visibility. In addition, the acquisitions are considered highly strategic and will be accretive.

As the deal is yet to complete, Morgan Stanley makes no forecast changes and retains its $3.20 target. The valuation is considered undemanding on an actual or pro forma basis and the Overweight rating is unchanged.  Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.77
If PWR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RGN as Neutral (3) -

UBS downgrades the A-REIT sector by an average of -4% in FY24 and -5% in FY25 to reflect cost inflation, debt pricing and lower residential development earnings.

The broker believes rates are likely to stablise in the second half and that the economy is starting to adjust but believes it is too early to move to an overweight position on the sector.

The broker is favouring funds with defensive income and a favourable supply/demand profile and lists logistics, MHE, non-discretionary malls, residential, office, funds management then discretionary shopping centres, in order of preference. In particular, UBS is favouring mid-cap shopping centres over discretionary retail. 

Region Group is one of UBS's least favoured sector picks. Neutral rating retained. Target price falls to $1.78 from $1.91. Earnings forecasts fall -1% in FY23; -3% in FY24; and-4% in FY25.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If RGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For iron ore, the analysts suggest China stimulus will likely have a lagged impact on demand, though the recent price bounce seems overdone in light of expected production cuts in the second half of 2023.

Morgan Stanley prefers Rio Tinto over BHP Group on higher growth. The target for Rio Tinto rises to $126.50 from $124.50 on a higher weighting toward the broker's bull case and on potential upside for iron ore.

The Overweight rating is unchanged. Sector view is Attractive.

Separately, Morgan Stanley likes Rio Tinto's move to approve the development of the Kennecott Copper mining complex as the decision aligns with the company's recent push to grow its copper exposure.

The around a US$0.5bn investment is to develop the North Rim Skarn underground and associated infrastructure at the US-based mine. First production is due by 2024 and management expects the investment will add around 25ktpa of copper over 10 years.

Target price is $126.50 Current Price is $115.79 Difference: $10.71
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.92, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Resimac Group is purchasing Thorn Group's ((TGA)) $150m commercial asset finance loan receivables book for $15m.

Heading into the end of FY23, Bell Potter takes the opportunity to review its estimates, as interest rates continue to rise and new lending for existing homes weakens.

The broker expects these trends will continue to hurt Resimac Group's revenue and adjusts estimates downward. On the upside, a strong labour should support credit quality and the broker postpones peak impairments to FY25 from FY24.

EPS forecasts fall -11% for FY23; -7% for FY24; and -16% for FY25.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to $1.12 from $1.29.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.21
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

Regarding gold, the broker expects the price will be steady around current levels and by the first half of 2024 extra support should arrive via softer real yields and a weaker US dollar.

Morgan Stanley raises its rating for Regis Resources to Overweight from Equal-weight on strong FY24 cash flows and the upcoming catalyst of the McPhillamys feasibility study.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Target rises to $2.25 from $2.05. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.305
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.42, suggesting upside of 24.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound. Falling input costs lead to a flattish alumina outlook though the Indonesian bauxite export ban remains in focus.

For South32, Morgan Stanley's target falls to $4.25 from $4.75 on adjustments to its aluminium, coal and nickel forecasts. The Overweight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.4
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.82, suggesting upside of 26.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound, with some short-term upside for copper.

The target for Sandfire Resources rises to $6.05 from $5.75 as lower zinc forecasts are slightly offset by higher copper forecasts though the valuation rises on changes in methodology.

The Equal-weight rating is retained as balance sheet risks remain. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.96, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SKT as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

As the share price of SKY Network Television has moved through the trigger level Ord Minnett raises the rating to Accumulate from Hold. Target is $2.75.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.13 Difference: $0.62
If SKT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Sayona Mining has announced preliminary results for its carbonate plant at the North American Lithium operation. Macquarie notes the study has assumed market prices for spodumene transfer from the mining operations to the carbonate plant.

A definitive technical study is now being advanced with commissioning planned for 2026. The study has assumed a concentrate feed grade of 6% lithium with an annual production rate of around 23,600tpa.

The study expects to have C1 cash costs of US$11,567/t and an AISC of US$11,997/t, both of which are lower than Macquarie's forecasts. The differences are attributable to the broker's higher spodumene price assumptions.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating with a $0.24 target.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.06
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

The broker expects base metal prices overall to be range-bound, with some short-term upside for copper.

The target price for Syrah Resources falls to $1.00 from $1.25 on lower graphite price forecasts for FY23-25 and adjustments to the the broker's valuation technology. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.12
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 68.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

The Australian Competition Tribunal has denied the application by Telstra Group and TPG Telecom to approve the MOCN deal and both are now reviewing options for an appeal to the Federal Court, which Macquarie considers is the best case scenario.

If the MOCN deal does not proceed Telstra will not receive the cash flow benefit of $1.6-8 bn over eight years. Furthermore, the spectrum payment payable to TPG Telecom will not occur.

Macquarie believes a base case scenario is for a domestic roaming agreement between TPG Telecom and either Telstra or Optus with financial implications depending on the structure.

The broker prefers Telstra, rated Outperform, given a healthy balance sheet and the option to realise value through fibre monetisation. Target is $4.68.

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.26
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the Australian Competition Tribunal has knocked back the regional mobile network-sharing deal with TPG Telecom, a surprise to investors judging by the fall in the stock price.

In the broker's opinion, the idea of Telstra using excess mobile spectrum from TPG Telecom to improve capacity in return for granting access to its mobile network assets appears too "convenient" for the regulator.

Despite the companies' intentions to appeal the decision the broker believes market optimism for regional mobile network sharing deal has evaporated.

The decision has no impact on Ord Minnett's Hold rating or $4.50 target for Telstra Group.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.08
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.65, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

TPG Telecom has reaffirmed EBITDA guidance of $1.85-95bn for FY23 despite including -$20-25m in one-off costs relating to the MOCN process which, Macquarie points out, implies an underlying upgrade.

The Australian Competition Tribunal has denied the application by TPG Telecom and Telstra to approve the MOCN deal and both are now reviewing options for an appeal to the Federal Court.

Macquarie believes the base case scenario is for a domestic roaming agreement between TPG Telecom and either Telstra or Optus with financial implications depending on the structure.

The broker reduces estimates for FY23 EPS slightly while raising FY24 estimates by 6%. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $5.60 from $5.30.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $0.34
If TPG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes the Australian Competition Tribunal has knocked back the regional mobile network-sharing deal between Telstra Group and TPG Telecom, a surprise to investors judging by the fall in the stock price.

In the broker's opinion, the idea of Telstra using excess mobile spectrum from TPG Telecom to improve capacity in return for granting access to its mobile network assets appears too "convenient" for the regulator.

Despite the companies' intentions to appeal the decision the broker believes market optimism for regional mobile network sharing deal has evaporated.

The decision has no impact on Ord Minnett's Accumulate rating and $7.40 target for TPG Telecom.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $2.14
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.07, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Economists at Morgan Stanley remain hopeful of counter-cyclical stimulus in China targeting property and infrastructure (green capex and rail). Some monetary easing is anticipated.

For thermal coal, the analysts see price stability by the fourth quarter as high inventories could be offset by demand out of Europe.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating for Whitehaven Coal though lowers its target to $7.95 from $9.55 on lower thermal and met coal price forecasts for FY24 and FY25. Attractive industry view.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $6.79 Difference: $1.16
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.12, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Worley has painted a strong outlook for FY24, expecting margin improvement and flagging an EBITA target of 7.5% or more as improved prices drive the result.

Macquarie notes global peers lifted average EBITDA margins by 100 basis points in FY22 and they forecast a further 180 basis points over the next two years.

Worley aspires to move back towards high single-digit margins, close to the peak of 10-11% EBIT margins enjoyed before the GFC.

The broker believes the stock continues to offer an attractive outlook in a growth-challenged market and retains an Outperform rating. Target price is $17.50.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.14 Difference: $1.36
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.48, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources