Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Management commentary at a2 Milk Co's AGM revealed Mataura Valley Milk external sales are significantly above plan, supported by rising commodity prices, highlights Bell Potter.

English label IMF sales are slightly ahead of plan, while China label sales are tracking in line with plan, note the analysts.

The broker observes the FY25 earnings (EBITDA) margin is expected to remain broadly in line with FY24, consistent with previous guidance.

The target price is reduced to $6.00 from $6.10. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.55
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi reiterates a Buy rating on a2 Milk Co following the company's AGM.

The broker highlights improvements in Stages 1 and 2, attributing the out-performance to higher birth rates in 2024, the Year of the Dragon, and pent-up family formation post-Covid.

Citi also believes the company can gain market share due to the shift to English-label products and new product developments.

The earlier-than-expected start of dividend payments is seen as a positive surprise, emphasising the strength of the company's balance sheet.

Citi raises the FY25 revenue growth forecast to 7% from 5.6% due to updated guidance and lifts the FY25 net profit forecast by 1%. The target price is increased to $7.15 from $7.04. Buy rated.

Target price is $7.15 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $1.7
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A2M as Neutral (3) -

Management at a2 Milk Co has raised FY25 revenue growth guidance to mid- to high-single-digit growth, up from mid-single-digit, highlights Macquarie.

The revision is primarily driven by Mataura Valley Milk external sales exceeding expectations due to higher commodity prices, currency impacts, and improved mix, explains the broker.

Macquarie retains a Neutral rating and lowers the target price to $5.70 from $5.90, reflecting a reduced valuation multiple amid declining competitor valuations.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.25
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes a2 Milk Co's dividend policy target of 60%-80% of normalised net profit after tax, starting in 1H25, was in line with the broker's expectations and at the lower end of the range at approximately 7c per share.

Management's AGM update revealed high-single-digit revenue growth guidance for FY25, with English label sales performing better than expected due to robust category growth.

China label sales met expectations, with production returning to normal levels and inventory stocking starting ahead of Chinese New Year.

Mataura Valley Milk sales benefited from higher global dairy prices. Management retained earnings guidance with a stable margin in FY25 compared to FY24.

Buy rated. Target price increases to NZ$6.50 from NZ$6.40. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $5.45. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A2M as Accumulate (2) -

Better-than-expected sales from Mataura Valley Milk and increased global dairy prices contributed to a "surprisingly strong" September quarter for a2 Milk Co, notes Ord Minnett.

FY25 revenue guidance has been raised to "mid to high single-digit growth," up from the "mid single-digit growth" provided at FY24 results.

Management is aiming to pay a maiden dividend with the 1H FY25 results, which the broker views as a positive outcome for shareholders.

The Hold rating is maintained, and the target price is reduced to $5.90 from $6.50, reflecting the latest marriage data from China, a typical lead indicator of birth rates.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.45
If A2M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABY as Buy (1) -

Adore Beauty presented its three-year retail strategy at the AGM. Citi notes the targets outlined by management align with the analyst's revenue and gross profit margin estimates for FY27.

Management did not provide a trading update. The broker highlights the company's earnings margin guidance for FY27 at over 8%, compared to Citi's forecast of 5.8%.

The analyst attributes the difference to potential contributions from physical stores and higher private-label contributions. While the guidance is viewed positively, Citi remains cautious as the program is in its early stages

Buy, High Risk rating. Target 1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.5
If ABY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ABY as Equal-weight (3) -

At the AGM, Adore Beauty presented an updated strategy with over 25 new stores, 40 target locations already established, with estimated upfront capex of -$0.3m-$0.6m per store and a 9-16 month payback.

Management is focused on growing own-brand products through own and wholesale channels.

Morgan Stanley sees a bigger total addressable market with 87.5% of beauty purchased in stores, increased brand awareness, and target earnings of over $13m in FY24 or 27% growth.

The broker remains concerned about execution risks, although the incoming CEO brings extensive experience.

Equal-weight. Target $1.20. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.2
If ABY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie retains its Outperform rating for Atlas Arteria, noting improved October traffic trends across the industry, alongside an attractive yield and latent growth options for its roads.

For the medium-term, the broker expects refinance proceeds will be required to sustain the annual dividend at 40c per share.

The $5.20 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $0.44
If ALX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Neutral (3) -

Autosports Group guided to 1H25 profit before tax of $28m, which is below UBS's forecast by -23% and below consensus by -24%.

Management's decision to reduce vehicle inventory contributed to the downgrade, with like-for-like new car volumes flat year-on-year, outperforming the industry declines.

The broker notes discounting and promotions to clear inventory are weighing on margins, with constant opex suggesting a decline in gross margin of -200bps year-on-year in 1H25.

UBS cuts its EPS forecast by -17% for FY25, leading to a reduction in the target price to $2.10 from $2.20.

The Neutral rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.1
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter maintains Accent Group as a key pick within its Retail sector coverage following a trading update for the first 20 weeks of FY25, retaining a Buy rating. The new 1H target of 50 store openings disclosed at the AGM exceeded the analysts' expectations.

Year-to-date group-owned sales increased by 6.8%, ahead of the broker's 6.2% forecast, though gross margin declined by -70bps, missing the anticipated -10bps contraction, driven by a promotional trading environment in mass/youth-focused brands.

The target price is lowered slightly to $2.75 from $2.80.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.25 Difference: $0.5
If AX1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners emphasises the longer-term potential of the markets Calix operates in, with a 5% market share in carbon capture and storage able to generate potential revenues of US$360m p.a. for the company.

Management's AGM highlights included ongoing challenges from market conditions and low commodity prices in FY25, with Calix focused on cost management and revenue generation.

Engineering work in Leilac and Sustainable Processing remains a focus, with a pause in Magnesia and batteries. Headcount has been reduced by around -20%, annualised costs are expected to decline by circa -$6m.

Buy, high-risk rating, and $2 target price are unchanged. No change to the broker’s earnings forecasts.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $1.195
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 148% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DEG as Buy (1) -

Following the Trump election victory, Bell Potter views gold as increasingly attractive as a store of wealth amid concerns over US dollar currency debasement driven by rising debt service and repayment obligations.

The broker expects reduced tax revenue and higher inflation to significantly expand the already massive US budget deficit, positioning gold as a key inflation hedge.

Bell Potter anticipates further consolidation before macroeconomic factors drive the gold price higher and sees the outperformance of silver versus gold as a positive indicator for gold sentiment.

The broker maintains a Buy rating for De Grey Mining. Target $1.82.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.33
If DEG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DEG as Buy (1) -

UBS continues to see value across the ASX gold sector after raising gold price forecasts from 2026 onwards to reflect diversification/safe haven flows and likely price resilience in an environment of higher macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical tension.

While the broker’s long-term gold price forecast remains unchanged at US$1,950/oz, across 2025-28 estimates are adjusted by -3%, 3%, 4% and 4%, respectively, to US$2,800/oz, US$2,850/oz, US$2,700/oz and US$2,400/oz.

The target for De Grey Mining rises to $2.20 from $2.15. Buy.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.71
If DEG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.08, suggesting upside of 38.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DUR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its FY25 forecast earnings (EBITDA) for Duratec by 3.1% to $53.7m, aligning with new guidance of $52-$56m provided during AGM commentary.

Management remains focused on preserving margins over pursuing volume and expressed optimism about the outlook across all sectors, highlights the broker.

Duratec is well positioned to tender for and subcontract final work, with one-third of tenders now including early contractor involvement (ECI), according to Bell Potter.

The Buy rating is maintained, and the target price increases to $1.73 from $1.58.

Target price is $1.73 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.225
If DUR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Following the Trump election victory, Bell Potter views gold as increasingly attractive as a store of wealth amid concerns over US dollar currency debasement driven by rising debt service and repayment obligations.

The broker expects reduced tax revenue and higher inflation to significantly expand the already massive US budget deficit, positioning gold as a key inflation hedge.

Bell Potter anticipates further consolidation before macroeconomic factors drive the gold price higher and sees the outperformance of silver versus gold as a positive indicator for gold sentiment.

The broker maintains a Buy rating for Genesis Minerals. Target $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.50 Difference: $0.3
If GMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.72, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GQG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Shares in GQG Partners have declined by approximately -20% due to exposure to Adani vehicles, notes Morgans, with management currently reviewing details of charges against Adani executives in relation to fund holdings.

The company disclosed over 90% of funds under management (FUM) are unrelated to Adani vehicles, implying group exposure in the 5-10% range, according to the broker.

Morgans suggests fund flows may face pressure due to reputational damage and potential adverse effects on near-term investment performance for the EM fund.

The target price is reduced to $2.47 from $3.10, and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.26
If GQG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies reiterated FY25 guidance at the AGM for revenue between $398m-$405m, or 5%-7% growth year-on-year, with earnings between $92m-$101m, suggesting an implied margin of 23%-25%, Shaw and Partners states.

Management confirmed Powercloud is on track towards profitability in the next few months. The broker also highlights the company's growth generation over the last two years is expected to continue.

The balance sheet is robust, with the possibility of management pursuing M&A opportunities.

The Buy rating, high-risk designation, and $7.20 target price remain unchanged.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1.7
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Hansen Technologies reiterated FY25 guidance at the AGM, UBS observes, with group revenue expected to grow by 5%-7% resulting in cash earnings of $76m-$85m, versus consensus at $81m.

The analyst believes the update on the Powercloud restructure was the most significant aspect, with -$27m in annual costs removed following the downsizing of 260 staff. The change is expected to enable Powercloud to achieve profitability.

Management also reiterated earnings would be skewed to 2H25 due to the timing of higher-margin license sales.

The target price is raised to $6.50 from $6.40. The Buy rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.50 Difference: $1
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.57, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IAM as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Income Asset Management with a Speculative Buy rating and an 8.8c target, highlighting its focus on fixed income solutions for wholesale, sophisticated, and professional investors.

The broker views the company as uniquely positioned to grow its funds under administration (FUA) through the launch of new offerings and products in the coming periods.

The company's listed Bond Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) aim to address an anticipated service gap emerging from recently flagged regulatory changes in the fixed income space, explains the analyst.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.058
If IAM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 193% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Citi raises earnings forecasts for Kogan.com following a more upbeat AGM trading update, with the broker's FY25 EPS forecast increasing by 18.1% and FY26 by 12.6%.

The analyst attributes the stronger-than-expected update to improvements in cost management but remains cautious due to "changing seasonal patterns" with the potential to blur earnings trend read-throughs.

To improve Citi's investment case, the broker has a preference for evidence around consistent advances in web traffic and app usage, higher contributions from new customers, and growth in Kogan First excluding price increases.

The stock remains Sell rated, with a higher target price of $4.50, up from $4.20.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.17, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LOV as Sell (5) -

Citi maintains a Sell rating on Lovisa Holdings.

The analyst expresses concerns over the quality of new stores being opened and competitive pressures on the company's sales and margins due to the faster-than-expected roll-out of Harli + Harpa.

Citi also highlights the CEO transition, potential further management departures, and the absence of volume growth as additional concerns.

The analyst cuts EPS estimates by -4.4% for FY25.

The stock remains Sell rated, with a lower target price of $25.45, down from $25.95.

Target price is $25.45 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: minus $1.74 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.14, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley observes the trading update from Lovisa Holdings indicates a slowdown in revenue growth to 10% for the first 20 weeks of FY25 compared to 12.7% growth in the first eight weeks. Consensus growth for 1H25 is 13.2%.

Comparable sales growth came in at 1% versus 2% in the first eight weeks with consensus forecast at 2.5% for 1H25.

Management provided no comments on margins, which is typical, and 27 net stores were added.

Morgan Stanley believes there are downside risks to FY25/FY26 consensus EPS forecasts following the softer sales and store growth.

Equal-weight. Target $33.25. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $6.06
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.14, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

Morgans reminds investors in Lovisa Holdings growth generally doesn’t occur in a straight line and the recent softness in store openings evident in the AGM trading update is one such example.

Store openings have averaged 1.35 per week so far this year, compared to 1.90 per week in FY24, with any acceleration unlikely to meet the analysts' prior target.

The broker considers Lovisa one of the greatest success stories in Australian retail history and views recent share price weakness as a buying opportunity.

Like-for-like sales for the first 20 weeks of FY25 increased by 1.0%, missing the broker's 2.9% forecast due in part to the later timing of Black Friday this year. The target price is lowered to $36 from $36.50. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $8.81
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.14, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses a disappointing FY25 trading update by Lovisa Holdings as cash-constrained consumers spent less on discretionary items and the rollout of new stores missed market expectations.

Like-for-like sales increased by only 1% in the first 20 weeks of FY25, while the addition of new stores lifted total sales by 10%, with Black Friday timing likely impacting sales growth, observes the analyst.

Management anticipates an acceleration in the store rollout pace, highlighting opportunities in the US and Canadian markets.

The broker lowers the target price to $29.20 from $30 and upgrades the rating to Hold from Lighten, following a -9% share price decline in November.

Target price is $29.20 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $2.01
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.14, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Lovisa Holdings' trading update at the AGM revealed a slowdown in sales growth in weeks 9-20 year-to-date for FY25 compared to the first eight weeks.

UBS notes the comps the company is cycling will make FY25 results more challenging, with a risk of like-for-like sales growth remaining soft.

Lovisa Holdings also opened fewer stores (both gross and net) in the first 20 weeks compared to the same period in FY24. The analyst highlights a skew toward lower-sales-per-store franchised markets and less toward higher-sales-per-store markets.

UBS retains a Neutral rating and a $29 target price.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.19 Difference: $1.81
If LOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.14, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MP1 as Buy (1) -

Citi views the confirmation of Megaport's FY25 guidance at the AGM as a positive for the company.

The absence of any discussion on the net retention rate suggests to the analyst management is not confident regarding the outlook for this metric.

Citi anticipates possible consensus revenue downgrades of -3% and probable downgrades to consensus earnings in the high single digits, driven by commentary around reinvestment in the business. Management also indicated similar revenue growth in FY26.

The broker notes Megaport's headcount is up by 37 in FY25 to date, with 62 new data centre locations added.

A Buy rating with a $16.05 target price is retained. Citi highlights the expectation of consensus downgrades in FY26 earnings may put the share price under pressure following the AGM update.

Target price is $16.05 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $8.48
If MP1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MP1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie lowers its target price for Megaport to $10.20 from $10.70, reflecting reduced forecast earnings, as management reiterated FY25 revenue guidance but implied lower-than-expected FY26 sales of $243m.

The broker expects full productivity from sales staff hired over the past 12 months to materialise, highlighting direct sales deliver significantly higher gross margins of around 90%, compared to approximately 75% for partner sales.

The Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $2.63
If MP1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MP1 as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett maintains its $8.00 target price for Megaport but downgrades the rating to Hold from Accumulate following disappointing FY26 growth guidance provided at the AGM. FY25 guidance for revenue and earnings was reiterated.

The broker reduces FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts by -20% and -28%, respectively, while raising the FY25 forecast slightly.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.43
If MP1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MP1 as Neutral (3) -

Following UBS's initial response to Megaport's AGM trading update, the broker emphasises the need for tangible evidence of an improved financial outlook before incorporating higher revenue growth assumptions into forecasts.

Management retained FY25 guidance, but a continuation of revenue trends into FY26 represents a downgrade of around -2% at the midpoint, the analyst notes. The growth in headcount in 1Q25 could also impact margin expansion.

UBS lowers the revenue growth forecast for FY26 to 12% from 17%, with most of the decline affecting the bottom line. The broker's EPS forecasts decline by -2% in FY25 and -29% in FY26.

The target price decreases to $8.65 from $10.15. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $1.08
If MP1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.32, suggesting upside of 49.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Sell (5) -

Citi casts doubt on the growth profile of Macquarie Group's private infrastructure division's earnings outlook, with the bank's recent result confirming a record 18-month period of weak earnings.

The analyst highlights competitors to Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets division have pivoted to faster-growing real estate and private credit, while revenue growth for Macquarie's division has lagged.

Citi questions whether the transition to green assets will be sufficient to keep up with competitors.

The Sell rating and $177 price target are retained. Citi believes investors are paying a high multiple for a business that appears increasingly mature.

Target price is $177.00 Current Price is $231.57 Difference: minus $54.57 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $217.44, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NST as Buy (1) -

Following the Trump election victory, Bell Potter views gold as increasingly attractive as a store of wealth amid concerns over US dollar currency debasement driven by rising debt service and repayment obligations.

The broker expects reduced tax revenue and higher inflation to significantly expand the already massive US budget deficit, positioning gold as a key inflation hedge.

Bell Potter anticipates further consolidation before macroeconomic factors drive the gold price higher and sees the outperformance of silver versus gold as a positive indicator for gold sentiment.

The broker maintains a Buy rating for Northern Star Resources with a $19.55 target price.

Target price is $19.55 Current Price is $17.90 Difference: $1.65
If NST meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.44, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners emphasises Patriot Battery Metals' share price is down a "whopping" -76% in 2024 due to poor sentiment, though the company has strong leverage to higher lithium prices in 2025.

The analyst argues the company's shares are "too cheap" to ignore. With $75m cash on hand at the end of September, the broker notes there is sufficient liquidity to progress to the final investment decision by the end of 2025.

The Buy (high-risk) rating is maintained. The target price is lowered to $1.50 from $1.80. No changes to the broker’s earnings forecasts.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $1.23
If PMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 456% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.87, suggesting upside of 222.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Buy (1) -

Following the Trump election victory, Bell Potter views gold as increasingly attractive as a store of wealth amid concerns over US dollar currency debasement driven by rising debt service and repayment obligations.

The broker expects reduced tax revenue and higher inflation to significantly expand the already massive US budget deficit, positioning gold as a key inflation hedge.

Bell Potter anticipates further consolidation before macroeconomic factors drive the gold price higher and sees the outperformance of silver versus gold as a positive indicator for gold sentiment.

The broker maintains a Buy rating for Regis Resources. Target $3.35.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.69
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RSG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett lowers its target for Resolute Mining to 50c from 90c and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate after allowing for a material increase in sovereign risk for the Syama gold mine in Mali.

Management has agreed to settle alleged tax and other claims (for -US$160m) made against the company by the governing military junta.

A new mining code allows the state to take up to 30% in new projects and removes tax exemptions for miners, explains the broker.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.09
If RSG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Buy (1) -

Citi's visit to Sierra Gorda, in which South32 has a 45% stake, confirmed the expansion potential and low-cost position, with potential exploration upside at Catalela Northwest.

On the negative side, capex of around -US$600m for the fourth grinding line to add approximately 20% capacity at a cost of US$20k/t p.a. is higher than expected for a brownfield development with excess desalination capacity.

The broker notes an additional -US$50m is required for a thickeners upgrade, with more infill drilling needed to better understand the ore feed to the mill.

Citi anticipates a final investment decision in 2H2025. The $3.90 target and Buy rating are maintained.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.07
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley attended the Sierra Gorda site for South32, which provided more transparency regarding delays to the fourth line final investment decision.

The analyst highlights the issue of tailings approval for the fourth grinding line, requiring a minimum of 62% solids, which is above the levels from plants 1 and 2.

Management must complete rectification work on the underperforming plants before proceeding.

Morgan Stanley notes the debottlenecking project is finished and operating in line with expectations.

Equal-weight rating maintained. Target price set at $3.30. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SLC as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi initiates coverage on Superloop with a Buy rating and a $2.40 target price.

The broker emphasises Superloop is well-positioned to exceed market growth due to competitive pricing, its own network infrastructure, and superior speed/latency performance.

Citi observes challengers in the domestic market have achieved a 19% market share, with questions remaining about whether this share can be expanded. The analyst believes Superloop can capture additional share from incumbents due to the aforementioned factors.

Origin Energy ((ORG)) subscribers have joined the platform, with the company recording 58% annual subscriber growth in FY24.

If this growth trend is maintained into FY26, the broker estimates additional earnings growth of over $65m. Citi’s current FY25 earnings forecast sits at the top end of management's guidance range.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.26
If SLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

The delay in the release of WiseTech Global's Container Transport Optimisation product pushes expected revenue from this product back by several months, highlights Bell Potter.

Management downgraded FY25 guidance by approximately -10% for revenue and -15% for earnings (EBITDA), largely due to the delay, notes the broker.

After rolling forward relative valuations by a year, lowering the assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC), and lowering FY25 valuation multiples, Bell Potter raises the target price to $140 from $123.75. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $121.74 Difference: $18.26
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.54, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the magnitude of the revenue downgrade at WiseTech Global's AGM was a surprise, raising questions about whether the delay in the container transport optimisation was the primary reason for the downgrade.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts by -1% for FY25 and -6% for FY26, with expected revenue growth in CargoWise increasing to 36% in FY26, up from 33%, year-on-year, due to the delay in the new product rollout.

Citi's forecasts assume a revenue contribution of approximately $160m in FY26 from new products and phase II of ComplianceWise.

The Buy rating and $124.50 target are retained. Citi is seeking more clarity on management depth at the upcoming Dec 3 Investor Day.

Target price is $124.50 Current Price is $121.74 Difference: $2.76
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.54, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WTC as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans raises its target for WiseTech Global to $135.30 from $114.20 and upgrades to Add from Hold, despite a downgrade to FY25 guidance at the AGM.

The broker rolls forward its multiple-based valuation to FY26 to better reflect the ramp-up of the company's new products.

The launch of the Container Transport Optimisation product will be delayed to 2H25 from 2Q25, due to recent distractions faced by founding CEO Richard White and the product's large and globally complex nature, explains the analyst.

Guidance indicates FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $600-660m, representing growth of 21-33% but an approximate -7.4% downgrade to the midpoint of prior guidance, notes Morgans.

Target price is $135.30 Current Price is $121.74 Difference: $13.56
If WTC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.54, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WTC as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

WiseTech Global has lowered FY25 operating earnings (EBITDA) growth guidance to 21-33% from 33-41%, citing delays in the commercial launch of its Container Transport Optimisation module due to organisational changes and recent media distractions.

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold, noting potential upside following the recent share price decline.

The target price rises to $137 from $120, reflecting the broker’s positive outlook on WiseTech’s products and its strong position in the logistics industry.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $121.74 Difference: $15.26
If WTC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $126.54, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources