Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Overweight (1) -

Clearance activity from competitor closures is affecting sales and gross margin, resulting in a -17% cut to earnings guidance. Morgan Stanley, subsequently, reduces estimates for earnings per share by -20% and -12% in FY18 and FY19 respectively.

The broker believes Baby Bunting will take a significant proportion of the market share. This strength is already allowing the company to obtain better terms from suppliers. Overweight retained. Target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: $0.62
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

It was an event only rarely witnessed in Australian financial history: CommBank reported Q3 unaudited cash earnings and the numbers missed market expectations by a wide margin. Citi's forecast had been 7% higher than what was reported.

Retail Banking has been singled out as the main culprit with Citi highlighting operating revenue for the quarter fell by -4%. Clients switching mortgages plus a higher BBSW rate put pressure on the Net Interest Margin (NIM).

The analysts also point to rising costs. Sell rating retained. Target unchanged at $72.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $0.82
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Following the March quarter trading update Credit Suisse downgrades FY18 earnings estimates by -2%.

The broker notes the result was compositionally soft, with declining bad debt charges no longer offsetting weaker revenues and higher operating expenses.

Neutral retained. Target is $75.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $3.82
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Cash profit in the March quarter was materially weaker than Deutsche Bank expected. The result translates to around 46% of the broker's second half forecast. Both revenue and cost trends were weaker relative to forecasts.

Cost growth was driven by increased provisions for regulatory and compliance expenditure in addition to the $200m already recorded in the first half. This was partly offset by the lower bad debt charge. Hold rating and $80.50 target.

Target price is $80.50 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $9.32
If CBA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

CBA's trading update fell well short of expectation. The broker understands that management is approaching future regulatory-related costs conservatively but underlying revenue trends remain soft.

Given uncertainty around potentially ongoing franchise issues, and thus just where earnings are going to settle, the broker finds it difficult to justify the bank's ongoing valuation premium to peers. The broker has also taken account of a rising differential between local and offshore (funding) rates.

Neutral retained. Target falls to $76.50 from $77.50.

Target price is $76.50 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $5.32
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

Some of the bank's revenue miss in the March quarter can be attributed to seasonality in fees and lower trading income but the slight decline in the margin has confirmed for Morgan Stanley that the sweet spot has ended.

The broker continues to believe the bank's advantages relative to peers are narrowing and an ongoing de-rating is likely to be driven by the moderation of growth and return profiles.

This is playing out, in the broker's opinion, with no EPS growth between FY15-19 and the return on equity falling to 14.5% from 18% over the same period.

Underweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $70 from $72. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Add (1) -

March quarter cash earnings were softer than expected. Morgans reduces FY18 EPS estimates by -3.2% and FY19 by -2.3%. Underlying expenses growth disappointed the broker and much of the increase in provisions is the result of the APRA inquiry.

The broker suggests CBA has not had to materially increase provisions for corporate exposures, the increase in this measure largely being the result of one large corporate being downgraded to troublesome from the watch list.

Add rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $79.00 from $81.50.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $7.82
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

The main culprits, in Ord Minnett's view, in the particularly weak trading update were non-interest income, which fell around -8%, and underlying operating expenses, which increased 3%. Both appear to be driven by one-offs.

The regulatory overhang is likely to be an impediment to an improved share price and the broker maintains a Hold rating. Target is trimmed to $76 from $78.

Target price is $76.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $4.82
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

The March quarter trading update was weak. UBS notes credit growth is slowing and there was a slight decline in net interest margins.

Although the penalties in the settlement with ASIC over BBSW manipulation are relatively small at $25m. the bank has agreed to an enforceable undertaking in relation to policies. UBS believes the undertakings will continue to add higher costs and it may be challenging for CBA to make material cost reductions and offset the revenue pressure.

UBS downgrades estimates for earnings per share by -2-7%. Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $74 from $78.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $71.18 Difference: $2.82
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CGF as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse has become more optimistic around the growth drivers for Challenger. The stock has underperformed the market by around -15% in the past 12 months and the broker considers the share price is now attractive again.

There had been some concern that means testing of lifetime products would be negative for annuities and lead to a slowdown in the company's annuity sales. However, Credit Suisse observes there remains a strong case for the purchase of a lifetime annuity by those with higher assets, although account-based pension still offer better value for those with less assets.

The broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $13.20.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $0.45
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CGF as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers the federal budget overall positive for the business. New means testing rules for lifetime income products are less punitive than previously expected. Minor upgrades are made to forecasts.

The broker likes the business story but believes the current multiple is fair value. Hold maintained. Target rises to $13.02 from $11.75.

Target price is $13.02 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $0.27
If CGF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGF as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the 2018/19 federal budget has proposed two main changes under the retirement income framework. Super trustees are required to offer comprehensive income products for retirement and there is a 60% asset and income means test for lifetime products.

At the margin both are considered positive for the business and the means test changes are less negative compared with the initial proposal. With limited upside to valuation, UBS retains a Neutral rating and $12.85 target.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $12.75 Difference: $0.1
If CGF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.20, suggesting downside of -4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

The company is reportedly conducting due diligence on acquiring 50% of 275 Kent Street Sydney for around $850m. The property is let to Westpac ((WBC)) with 10 years remaining on the lease.

Ord Minnett continues to believe Charter Hall offers good value and above-average earnings growth potential. The broker maintains an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $6.90 from $6.65.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $0.66
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.20, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

FY18 net profit was in line with expectations and the highest level in 11 years. Citi notes a strong performance in building products and property while aluminium was weaker because of higher power costs.

Citi believes FY18 may mark the peak in the company's earnings in this cycle although market conditions remain supportive. The broker upgrades estimates for earnings per share by 13% and 15% for FY19 and FY20 respectively.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $5.39 from $4.23.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.11
If CSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSR as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results were in line with Credit Suisse estimates. The outlook for construction activity is steady, as expected. The broker reduces FY19 earnings estimates by -12% to account for the unexpected costs in aluminium.

The deterioration in the near-term cash flow appears to put capital management on hold. The broker retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $5.40 from $5.90.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.12
If CSR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates CSR as Sell (5) -

FY18 net profit was in line with expectations. Building product earnings improved but this was partly offset by weakness in Viridian and aluminium. No guidance was provided for FY19.

Deutsche Bank continues to believe the risk is to the downside for building product earnings margins. Given aluminium earnings will be affected by a full year of higher energy costs the broker maintains a Sell rating. Target is $4.68.

Target price is $4.68 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSR as Outperform (1) -

CSR's result was broadly in line with consensus expectations. The outlook for building products is positive given an elongated residential cycle and abating cost pressures, the broker notes.

The broker does not expect capital management in FY19 but sees distinct potential in FY20. On that assumption, an FY19 multiple of 13.4x and a 5.3% yield the broker sees the investment case staking up. Outperform retained, target rises to $5.75 from $5.60.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.47
If CSR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSR as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

FY18 results were broadly in line with Morgan Stanley. The main negative came from energy cost pressures in aluminium. The broker suggests earnings have likely peaked and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target is reduced to $4.75 from $5.00.

The inevitable decline in overall Australian housing construction suggests that FY18 is almost certainly to be the peak and the broker suggests a one-off spike in property sales may be the only thing that can change this scenario. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSR as Hold (3) -

FY18 underlying net profit was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The highlight was the upbeat commentary on the demand conditions for the building product segment, leading Ord Minnett to increase division estimates. This upgrade was partly offset by higher projected costs for the aluminium division.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $5.00 from $4.05.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.16, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

The company's March quarter update signals momentum continues into FY19. The broker believes growth in assets under management is a key source of upward pressure on FY19-20 estimates.

Buy rating maintained. Target is $9.66.

Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: $0.53
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GMG as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Guidance for FY18 has been reaffirmed at 46.5c in earnings per share, up 8%.

Although Deutsche Bank expects ongoing strength in the e-commerce sector will drive demand for industrial assets, the share price has increased 14% since it previously upgraded to Buy.

Hence, now the stock is trading ahead of the target of $8.80 the rating is downgraded to Hold.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman has provided an update, retaining FY18 earnings growth guidance of 8%. Solid development margins, a step-up in performance fees and a reduced cost of debt support forecasts, the broker notes.

The REIT is committed to its own development pipeline and despite a strong balance sheet is not interested in M&A, which could compromise Goodman's stringent criteria. The broker notes value is not as attractive as it was but retains Outperform and an $8.79 target on strong earnings growth and balance sheet capacity.

Target price is $8.79 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

Management has reiterated guidance for 8% growth in operating EPS for FY18. Following two large M&A industrial deals in the US in the last two weeks the business strategy is now focused on organic growth.

Ord Minnett notes Goodman will also focus on development as the best use of capital. The broker maintains a Hold rating and increases the target to $8.10 from $7.80.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.63, suggesting downside of -5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GXL as Neutral (3) -

This latest profit warning has Citi analysts worried about the balance sheet, as there is a lot of debt. Increasing competition and uncertainty about rollout targets are keeping the analysts on the sidelines.

Citi thinks it remains way too early to consider buying into this beaten down stock. Neutral rating retained. Target tumbles to $4.70 from $5.75.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.77
If GXL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GXL as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

The company's update highlighted a sudden deterioration in the veterinary business, a segment which Deutsche Bank had expected to be more stable. Revenue has been affected by a reduction in visits to stand-alone clinics.

The broker believes the earnings trajectory bodes poorly for FY19, especially given the competitive intensity in the industry and the large debt the group is carrying. Rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target is $3.70.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If GXL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GXL as Neutral (3) -

A resetting of Greencross' operations was not unexpected but the profit warning was more significant than assumed, falling -12% below consensus forecasts and -9% below the broker. Weakness in veterinary, high labour costs and the write-back of an onerous lease provision were blamed.

Digital disruption is driving structural change in the pet sector, hence the broker welcomes an apparent de-prioritisation of store rollouts from here and a focus on a digital strategy, while right-sizing of the cost base and an omni-channel approach are key, with debt uncomfortably high.

Target falls to $4.35 from $6.30, Neutral retained.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.42
If GXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GXL as Neutral (3) -

The company has announced one-off charges and an underlying downgrade to FY18 earnings guidance. Trading at stand-alone veterinary clinics continues to be weak. New projects have been suspended or cancelled.

The new CEO has announced inventory & restructuring provisions and asset impairments amounting to $16-20m. UBS is most concerned about the weak cash generation implied by the lift in net debt to $280m.

The broker reduces estimates for earnings per share by -22%. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $4.40 from $5.90.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.93 Difference: $0.47
If GXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.29, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

Citi suggests the first half miss on expectations can be largely explained by poor seasonal conditions which dragged down the contribution from fertilisers.

The broker suggests the near-term outlook is less clear, with issues surrounding the future of Gibson Island, domestic ammonium nitrate oversupply and weaker fertiliser prices.

Citi considers the risk/reward fairly balanced and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $3.90 from $4.20.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.38
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Headwinds in Australian explosives are increasingly apparent, and there is some uncertainty around capital expenditure and costs from an extended maintenance cycle, Credit Suisse observes.

In the absence of a significantly improved outlook for fertiliser prices the broker suggests earnings are likely to be relatively flat for the next two years. Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $3.39 from $3.85.

Target price is $3.39 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates IPL as Buy (1) -

Interim results were well below Deutsche Bank's expectations. Fertiliser earnings were below forecasts, primarily because of the unplanned outage at Gibson Island.

Australia explosives were in line while North American earnings were affected by a lower realised ammonia price. The outlook is considered generally positive.

The company continues to pursue an interim gas arrangement at Gibson Island and the mitigation of WA contract losses. Buy rating and $4.65 target.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $1.13
If IPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Incitec's result was roughly in line with the broker but below consensus. The "big ticket items" performed well, the broker suggests, noting production 15% ahead of nameplate at Moranbah and 10% ahead at WALA (Louisiana). The broker considers WALA an operational success story.

Incitec was nevertheless less upbeat about the outlook for Australian explosives than peer Orica ((ORI)) was earlier this week. Outperform retained, with the broker noting the buyback is likely to recommence post-result. Target falls to $3.91 from $4.04.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.39
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were below Morgan Stanley's estimates, substantially because of timing. However, the result was also affected by operating issues at Cheyenne, St Helens and Gibson Island facilities.

Morgan Stanley is not hopeful the stock will break out of the recent trading range. The broker retains an Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view. The target is reduced to $3.80 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.28
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

First half results were weaker than Morgans expected. The outlook has a number of headwinds reinforced by input cost pressures and competitive threats.

The broker expects significant downgrades to consensus estimates. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $3.45 from $3.65.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Buy (1) -

First half earnings were below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The miss was due to weakness in fertilisers, partly offset from earnings at Waggaman and Moranbah.

The broker downgrades FY18 estimates by -5% and upgrades FY19 estimates by 3%. Concerns remain around Gibson Island gas contracts and unscheduled turnarounds. Buy rating and $4 target maintained.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.48
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Buy (1) -

Management has flagged the possibility of 'regular' share repurchases as part of its capital management strategy. Citi analysts suggest the first one of these is probably not too far away.

The analysts have increased estimates but stress none of such buy backs have been incorporated as yet. Retail inflows remain weak, they acknowledge, while costs remain contained.

Citi continues to see "compelling value". Buy rating retained. Target lifts to $49.75, after reducing it last month.

Target price is $49.75 Current Price is $44.99 Difference: $4.76
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates JHG as Neutral (3) -

First quarter earnings per share were ahead of Credit Suisse estimates, driven by better-than-expected costs. Revenue margins were stable and assets under management flat quarter on quarter.

The broker suggests the weak performance fees could be overlooked given the outflows but questions the sustainability of the better cost performance.

Neutral rating and $43 target maintained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $44.99 Difference: minus $1.99 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JHG as Outperform (1) -

Janus Henderson's March Q profit was 2% ahead of expectation thanks to lower expenses. Net outflows in the quarter disappointed the broker but an improving funds performance should lead to outflow moderation.

Capital management options should provide share price support and the broker retains Outperform, recognising that if flows don't improve, the fund manager will continue to trade at a discount to peers. Target falls to $50.00 from $54.14.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $44.99 Difference: $5.01
If JHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Overweight (1) -

March quarter performance fees were below Morgan Stanley's forecasts although better costs carried an overall beat to estimates.

The dividend is up 13%. Negative flows of -US$2.7bn were incurred as the retail business weighed on the institutional mandate wins.

Overweight retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $57.00.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $44.99 Difference: $12.01
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHG as Buy (1) -

First quarter net profit was ahead of UBS estimates. The broker upgrades the FY18 outlook by 3.5% and envisages compelling value in the stock.

Buy rating and US$41.50 target maintained.

Current Price is $44.99. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $49.94, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LNK as Add (1) -

Morgans estimates the new rule on inactive super accounts going to the ATO could lower FY20 earnings per share by -2-4%. The impact of the 3% fee cap on super accounts with balances under $6,000 is harder to quantify but could mean fee pressure for Link.

The broker believes the company needs to provide detail on the impact of the federal budget although, arguably, much of the downside has already been captured in the recent share price move.

Add rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.75 from $9.20.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $1.47
If LNK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

UBS suggests the measures in the federal budget aimed at increasing consolidation of inactive super accounts from FY20 could be a material headwind for Link. The broker estimates 2.8m or 29% of Link's member accounts at FY17 were inactive, with an average balance of $12,000.

Ahead of the company clarifying the risks the broker places its rating under review. Neutral. Target is $9.10.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $1.82
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.94, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates NWS as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank updates forecasts to take into account the merger of Foxtel/Fox Sports and the new ownership structure where News Corp is a 65% shareholder.

Changes to estimates reflect the Foxtel consolidation, with higher costs resulting in substantial reductions to earnings forecasts. Buy rating and $24 target maintained.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.40 Difference: $1.6
If NWS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.38, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QUB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett suggests the outlook is improving and the appeal for tenancy at Moorebank is growing. The broker believes a key driver of the underperformance in the share price over recent months has been the first half result from Patrick, which declined -47%.

The broker believes the stock is one for the patient investor. Buy rating and $3 target maintained.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.58
If QUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.64, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley envisages the company expanding its presence in a new higher growth market. Portable oxygen concentrator (POC) products treat chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder and this market is large and under penetrated by such products.

The company has gained exposure to POC via the acquisition of Inova and the company is set to launch its first branded product, Mobi POC.

Morgan Stanley expects ResMed can grow to around a 40% share of the US POC market by FY22. The broker reiterates an Overweight rating. Target is raised to US$112 from US$98. Industry view: In Line.

Current Price is $13.25. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $13.30, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEH as Outperform (1) -

Sino has reached an agreement with its JV partner CUCBM which will see the receivables balance being paid by month's end, earlier than the broker had assumed. The JV will have to carry the partner in terms of development costs for another year but cash flow is more than sufficient and interest will be paid.

Although this is later than the broker expected, it does imply a broader agreement covering the whole Linxing project rather than a phased development. Outperform and 25c target retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If SEH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SUN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The share price has risen 10% since mid February and Credit Suisse downgrades the rating back to Neutral from Outperform. Target is unchanged at $14.50.

The broker remains confident the business will deliver a significant turnaround in underlying insurance margin in the second half and supports the business improvement program.

However, Suncorp has suffered from volume loss recently and ongoing premium rate increases may mean this continues and reduces some of the potential earnings upside.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $13.95 Difference: $0.55
If SUN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.26, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SYD as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

The company has outlined its growth opportunities at the investor briefing. After the NSW and federal elections the business intends to lobby for an easing of regulatory restrictions related to aircraft movement caps and regional flights.

Morgans makes reductions to long-term forecasts and assumes a slowing of distribution growth beyond FY18. The broker downgrades to Hold from Add because of the recent strength in the share price. Target is reduced to $7.12 from $7.45.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $7.21 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If SYD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.27, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TPE as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add, given the ongoing uncertainty and a lack of visibility as the business transitions. The broker continues to expect a strong operating performance will be needed to restore investor faith in management.

Post the acquisition of the API and contract manufacturing divisions of Norwegian based Vistin the company has made a strategic decision to focus on narcotic raw material production and higher opiates ingredients downstream processing, reducing the emphasis on external sales and toll processing. Target is reduced to $1.77 from $2.79.

Target price is $1.77 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.22
If TPE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPM as Sell (5) -

The company is to offer trial plans for its entry into mobile featuring a six months free period and a charge of $9.99/month thereafter. In terms of data quota only the first GB of data every day will be supplied at 4G LTE speeds with usage thereafter capped at 1 Mb per second.

UBS expected the company would launch aggressive promotions to take market share and this has eventuated. However, the broker suggests the $9.99 ARPU is unlikely to make a positive return for the company's mobile roll-out. The broker maintains a Sell rating and $5.30 target.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.78 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If TPM meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.68, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts described the company's Investor Day as "heavy on useful content". Certainly, the analysts themselves took home a number of positives. Buy rating retained.

Industry dynamics are now positive for companies depending on energy and resources companies spending money again, and Citi reports management at WorleyParsons confirmed as much. Price target lifts to $18.50 from $17.50.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $1.45
If WOR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WOR as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse observes the company's outlook appears to be incrementally stronger versus 2017. Higher oil prices are envisaged to be reinforcing capital expenditure plans, although budgets are largely unchanged.

The company reinforced the well-known LNG opportunity at its investor briefing but the broker is disappointed there was no quantification of net debt or gross margin. Underperform rating and $10.50 target maintained.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: minus $6.55 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WOR as Buy (1) -

The company's investor briefing highlighted that resources have moved past an inflection point and are now starting to recover. Customers are now re-investing in projects.

Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy rating and $17.74 target.

Target price is $17.74 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: $0.69
If WOR meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Management was upbeat at the investor day, noting the financial health of customers has improved thus investment is expected to follow. Nearly all businesses and geographies have seen increased bidding, other than coal.

The broker believes the market will back the company's recovery prospects but given the typical lag, timing remains uncertain. The broker notes Dar Group has now crept up to a 19.9% stake. Outperform and $16.08 target retained.

Target price is $16.08 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Buy (1) -

The investor briefing provided further justification for a positive view on the stock, Ord Minnett believes. Global oil & gas and metals & mining expenditure forecasts suggest a marked improvement in the business cycle.

The broker believes the longer term outlook could be even more positive once E&P companies commit to larger-scale projects from 2020 onwards. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $16.90 target.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $17.05 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.03, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WTC as Underperform (5) -

The investor briefing has outlined the growth strategy. Credit Suisse remains cautious about the company's increasingly acquisition-propelled growth model.

The broker makes minor upgrades to earnings estimates for FY18 and FY19 of 3% and 5% respectively. Underperform rating maintained on valuation grounds. Target increases to $7.50 from $7.10.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: minus $5.72 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting downside of -9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources