Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AMA as Speculative Buy (1) -

Refinancing risks over AMA Group's senior debt facility have risen according to Bell Potter.

The facility matures in October this year and the broker assesses the risks as being elevated with two recent red flags in May; the resignation of the CFO and a major shareholder calling for a general meeting to remove three directors from the board.

As at June, there are no further updates and the company remains "confident" of refinancing in the 2H2024.

The target price is lowered to 8c from 12c and the rating adjusted to Speculative Buy from Buy.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.037
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APM as Equal-weight (3) -

APM Human Services International accepted a revised bid of $1.45/sh from Madison Dearborn Partners, representing a 74.7% premium to the last undisturbed share price of $0.83, notes Morgan Stanley.

The company also offered a trading update with FY24 EBITDA now expected at the low end of $280-$290m guidance range with net profit of $95-$105m.

The analyst details challenges include declining Disability Employment Services volumes, though Workforce Australia volumes have stabilised.

Equal-weight rating. Target $1.40. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.02
If APM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates APM as Accumulate (2) -

Madison Dearborn Partners' new agreement to acquire APM Human Services International at $1.45 per share is a -28% discount to Ord Minnett's $2.00 fair value estimate, but the broker assumes the takeover will be successful and lowers its target to $1.45.

The price is higher than MDP's April $1.40 bid, but below CVC's February bid of $1.60 which the APM board rejected.

Following a weak trading update in the interim, management remains confident conditions will normalise, but sees an opportunity to realise value, Ord Minnett notes.

Hold retained.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.07
If APM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS maintain a cautious outlook on Australian banks, noting that share prices have surged by around 30% in the past six months, driven by strong capital returns.

The broker stresses the underlying earnings trends show sustained competitive pressures and cost inflation.

Equally, sector earnings declined by -2% over the past 6 months, with net interest margins (NIM) down -5 bps;  revenues grew by 1%, and loan growth was 2%.

The broker also highlights the return on equity (ROE) contracted by -30 bps to 11.2%.

Major banks are trading at circa 16x forward EPS, above historical averages, suggesting valuations are running ahead of fundamental earnings.

Sell rating on CommBank unchanged. Target raised to $107 from $105.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $121.29 Difference: minus $14.29 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.48, suggesting downside of -23.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Add (1) -

Morgans lifts its long-term coal price expectations, with net present value uplifts for coal miners moderated by higher cost assumptions.

The broker adjusts its rating for Coronado Global Resources to Speculative Buy from Add to reflect recent operating and cashflow challenges.

Target rises to $1.80 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: $0.63
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.66, suggesting upside of 37.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CTD as Buy (1) -

UBS has revised the travel outlook due to higher inflation and interest rate expectations dampening the global travel outlook

The analyst points to weaker US domestic market pricing impacting profits and commissions in the travel sector as well as challenging conditions in the European SME market.

UBS also highlights soft business confidence in US, EU, and Australia, with minor improvement in US in April 2024.

These factors contribute to tempered recovery expectations in the travel sector for FY25.

UBS revised the earnings forecasts for Corporate Travel Management with FY24 EPS down -5% and FY25 EPS down -10%.

Buy rating retained. The target price is lowered to $19.80 from $21.80.

Target price is $19.80 Current Price is $13.39 Difference: $6.41
If CTD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.05, suggesting upside of 37.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DUR as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Duratec is a specialist contractor focusing on asset maintenance and remediation. The business has grown exponentially since its inception in 2010, while generating sector-leading return metrics.

Ord Minnett nonetheless expects the next six months or so to represent a period of consolidation, following delays in the award of projects.

Whilst Duratec's valuation is seen as undemanding, the broker's near-term view is tempered by the risk of further delays in the award of projects.

Hence, Ord Minnett views the recent share price decline as an opportunity for investors to begin building a position, with the potential award of Defence contracts in 1Q25 acting as a catalyst for a more positive view.

The broker initiates coverage with an Accumulate rating and $1.30 target.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.205
If DUR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Hold (3) -

Changes to Fletcher Building's banking agreement provide additional flexibility if the recovery in NZ construction takes longer than expected, Ord Minnett suggests.

The company has twice downgraded FY24 earnings guidance due to weak demand, pushing its net debt to earnings ratio above management's target. Despite a stretched balance sheet, the broker does not expect a breach of new, more generous covenants.

While the NZ economic environment is showing no immediate signs of recovery, Ord Minnett expects a gradual recovery in construction over FY25-26. Hold and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

UBS has revised the travel outlook due to higher inflation and interest rate expectations dampening the global travel outlook

The analyst points to weaker US domestic market pricing impacting profits and commissions in the travel sector as well as challenging conditions in the European SME market.

UBS also highlights soft business confidence in US, EU, and Australia, with minor improvement in US in April 2024.

These factors contribute to tempered recovery expectations in the travel sector for FY25.

The broker adjusts EPS estimates for Flight Centre Travel by -3% for FY24 and -5% for FY25.

Neutral rating retained. The target price is lowered to $21.30 from $22.50.

Target price is $21.30 Current Price is $18.97 Difference: $2.33
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.27, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNE as Hold (3) -

In a positive for NZ utilities, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) has agreed to electricity supply contracts to operate New Zealand Aluminium Smelters until 2044.

Weak aluminium prices nearly closed the smelter in 2020, Ord Minnett notes, which would have slashed wholesale electricity prices.

While Genesis Energy has no direct exposure, risk is reduced for the whole sector, the broker notes, with the smelter's commitment to operate for another 20 years.

Hold and NZ$2.30 target retained.

Current Price is $1.94. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

ikeGPS Group reported a larger-than-forecast FY24 net loss and Bell Potter notes pre-reported revenue fell -23% on the previous year.

The analyst highlights a rise in operating expenditures of 10% due to sales and general admin costs lifting 26%.

Management reconfirmed expectations for 50%-plus growth in subscriptions revenue in FY25.

Bell Potter adjusts EPS forecasts by -2.1cents per share in FY25 and -0.2cents per share in FY26 due to higher costs from incentives for new contract wins.

The Speculative Buy rating and target price of 63c are retained.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.21
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Initiation of Coverage with Add (1) -

Imdex is the leading global supplier of intelligent drill rig tools, drilling fluids and software to the mining industry. The company is predominantly exposed to the exploration market (80%) meaning its fortunes are largely tied to exploration spend, Morgans notes.

Exploration spend is driven by gold and copper prices as these commodities generally make up  around 50% and 25% of spend respectively.

Throughout its history, however, Morgans points out Imdex has demonstrated levers to grow above market by gaining share, introducing new products and upgrading products.

The broker initiates coverage with an Add rating and $2.50 target.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $0.3
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as No Rating (-1) -

IPH reported filing growth and the company's market share in Australia for the 2H24 period to date, (Jan -May), is stable at 32.0%, with filing growth of 0.9% compared to the market decline of -0.4%, highlights Macquarie.

The group's activity has been volatile according to the broker, due to the 2H23 cyber incident, with IPH filings down -10.8% in May but up 19.6% in April.

No changes to the analyst's forecasts. The next potential catalyst is the 2H24 result release in August.

Macquarie is under research restrictions.

Current Price is $6.26. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $8.68, suggesting upside of 38.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Hold (3) -

Karoon Energy now moves to a calendar year-end, aligning with Brazil's tax year and oil & gas peers. This results in some shuffling of Ord Minnett's forecasts.

Karoon has revised down 2024 production for a second time, by -7%. The revenue impact is nevertheless limited, the broker notes, given oil represents only 8% of production, and Henry Hub benchmark gas prices have rallied 75% since 25-year lows in March.

With Karoon's balance sheet remaining sound, Ord Minnett retains an Accumulate rating and $2.65 target.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.865
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.66, suggesting upside of 55.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LOV as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley regards the change in CEO as raising the risk profile for Lovisa Holdings.

The change highlights the broker's concern over the store-roll out from June 2025 when the current MD of Smiggle takes over from the existing CEO and MD, Victor Herrero.

Morgan Stanley notes Cheston is a highly regarded executive, however, Smiggle's track record has been mixed, while Herrero is highly regarded due to his strong background in retail.

The analyst adjusts EPS forecasts by 2.3% for FY24 and 15.1% for FY25 on the back of lower long-term incentive payments for the new CEO.

The rating is downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight as the shares have risen 53% over the last six months. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $30.25.

Target price is $30.25 Current Price is $30.40 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Add (1) -

The announcement that CEO Victor Herrero is to step down in a year’s time, to be replaced by the current CEO of Smiggle ((PMV)), does not, in Morgans' opinion, signal a change in strategic direction or any diminution in the ultimate scale of Lovisa Holdings' global opportunity.

The new compensation package agreed allows for a material reduction in the overall cost of the senior leadership team, the broker notes. Assuming the growth trajectory remains, this represents much better value of money.

Add and $35 target retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $30.40 Difference: $4.6
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.04, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Sell (5) -

UBS maintain a cautious outlook on Australian banks, noting share prices have surged by around 30% in the past six months, driven by strong capital returns. 

The broker stresses the underlying earnings trends show sustained competitive pressures and cost inflation. 

Equally, sector earnings declined by -2% over the past 6 months, with net interest margins (NIM) down circa -5 bps; revenues grew by 1%, and loan growth was 2%. 

The broker also highlights the return on equity (ROE) contracted by -30 bps to 11.2%. 

Major banks are trading at circa 16x forward EPS, above historical averages, suggesting valuations are running ahead of fundamental earnings.

UBS is Sell rated on National Australia Bank with a price target of $31, up from $30.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $34.46 Difference: minus $3.46 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.57, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NGI as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has downgraded Navigator Global Investments to Neutral from Outperform, with a revised target price of $2.22, up from $1.55.

The company has upgraded FY24 EBITDA guidance to a range of US$85m to US$89m, approximately 14% higher than previous expectations, which suggests 2H24 earnings growth of 83% to 97%, year-on-year.

Macquarie highlights the increase is driven by strong profit distributions from partner firms and performance fee revenue.

The analysts adjusts EPS forecasts by 14.3% for FY24.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.12
If NGI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NGI as Buy (1) -

Navigator Global Investments' recent trading update included guidance which was 16.3% ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast at the mid-point. Key drivers were primarily the NGI Strategic Portfolio, supplemented by performance fees from the Lighthouse Partners business.

Management's forecast for the NGI SP's three-year average contribution is 7% above the broker's forecast.

To that end, Ord Minnett remains a "happy buyer" of the stock. Buy retained, target rises to $2.20 from $1.85.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.1
If NGI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Hold (3) -

Morgans lifts its long-term coal price expectations, with net present value uplifts for coal miners moderated by higher cost assumptions.

The broker maintains Hold as New Hope continues to trade near to its valuation. However, a forecast fully franked yield of 7-8% through the down-cycle is solid compensation as investors await the next upswing, Morgans suggests.

Target rises to $5.45 from $4.95.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $5.05 Difference: $0.4
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Hold (3) -

The Treasurer ordered five Chinese entities to dispose of shareholdings in Northern Minerals within 60 days. Ord Minnett has been concerned that the AGM on 6 June may see the board pass to Chinese control.

The broker was worried that Yuxiao Fund, given its ties with China State-owned rare earth companies, may stymie the development of Browns Range given its rare earth content and the strategic agreement with Iluka Resources ((ILU)).

The FIRB action simply reduces, rather than eliminates, this threat, Ord Minnett warns. Hold and 3.6c target retained.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMT as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

UBS initiates coverage on Patriot Battery Metals with a Buy rating and a target price of $1.30.

The company's Corvette Project in Canada is expected to support a robust, long mine life with an 800ktpa spodumene operation, according to the analyst.

 A resource update is due in in August,  followed by a preliminary feasibility study in Sep-24 and a definitive final study in Sep-25.

The project is anticipated to start production in Sep-29, with steady-state cash costs of circa CA$530/t FOB Montreal. 

Buy rating. Target price $1.30.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.415
If PMT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses Steadfast Group's US strategy which focuses on leveraging differentiated technology to create an interconnected technology stack, addressing a gap in the current market.

The analyst visited the US in March and highlighted a good broker technology does not exist in the US, while rationalisation in the market has made it challenging for independent groups to scale their businesses.

Despite existing broker technology in the US, the lack of interconnectivity offers a significant opportunity for Steadfast Group, according to Macquarie.

There are no changes to the broker's earnings forecasts. Outperform rating and $6.70 target retained.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $1.15
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.45, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Morgans makes 5-21% upgrades to its copper price assumptions across FY24-27 and lifts its long term price by 13% to US$4.25/lb. The broker makes more modest upgrades to zinc-lead assumptions across FY24-26.

The changes support 25-30% forecast earnings upgrades for Sandfire Resources in FY25-26. Sandfire Resources is now ex major capex, the broker notes, introducing a de-gearing tailwind.

While attracted to Sandfire’s opportunity to consolidate its belt-scale advantages around its existing processing hubs, Morgans notes that project optimisation in combination with life extension is likely to evolve more incrementally slowly from here.

Target rises to $9.10 from $7.00, Hold retained.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $9.36 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.37, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SM1 as Hold (3) -

Synlait Milk downgraded FY24 EBITDA expectations to the lower end of the NZ$45-NZ$60m guidance range, excluding a -NZ$17m non-cash adjustment for product cost methods.

The company has secured a NZ$130m shareholder loan from Bright Dairy, subject to shareholder approval, and plans to refinance its NZ$180m retail bond by December 2024 which implies a significant equity raising, Bell Potter highlights.

Financial forecasts have been updated, resulting in the broker lowering EBITDA estimates by -19% for FY24 and -4% for FY25.

Bell Potter highlights the -20% discount to comparable peer group valuations is due to increased refinancing urgency.

Hold rating unchanged. The target price is lowered to 47c from 66c.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.04
If SM1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Morgans lifts its long-term coal price expectations, with net present value uplifts for coal miners moderated by higher cost assumptions.

Stanmore Resources' assets offer long-life cashflow leverage at solid margins to the resilient outlook for steelmaking coal prices, Morgans suggests.

Target rises to $4.20 from $4.00, Add retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.87
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

Service Stream has announced two multi-year contract wins totalling $600m in value which cover operations and maintenance-style workflows, continuing the mix shift away from design & construct-style contracts, Ord Minnett notes.

O&M contracts generally create more predictable revenue streams, with a lower capital input and risk profile relative to D&C.

The broker suggests the infrastructure maintenance market continues to show robust growth, driven by ageing infrastructure assets, population growth and capex upgrades from utility owners.

Ord Minnett has upgraded Service Stream’s target to $1.37 from $1.21 to reflect improving earnings momentum alongside a more favourable revenue mix. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.135
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.27, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Record second half revenue for Powerball presents a tough comparable for Lottery Corp to cycle in FY25, notes Citi. However, the broker's analysis suggests Lottery Corp will accelerate the Powerball jackpot sequence to minimise the drop-off in FY25.

Citi's analysis also indicates Lottery Corp has room to lift its dividend payout to 120% of profit while still retaining flexibility to debt-fund
a Victorian licence renewal payment of up to $1bn.

The broker's upgraded earnings forecasts now sit some 6% ahead of FY24 consensus and 3% ahead in FY25. The Lottery Corp’s relatively resilient earnings profile and room for higher dividends should appeal to investors looking for defensive exposure, the broker suggests.

Target rises to $5.60 from $5.50, upgrade to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.7
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TSK as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter highlights Task Group has adjusted FY24 accounts for the switch to AUD from NZD.

The company reported revenue growth of 20% year-on-year to $70.7m, driven by a 31% increase in recurring revenue to $67.4m.

The broker points to an increase in the pre-tax loss to -$10.2m from -$4.9m in FY23, due to investments in headcount and deployment capabilities.

Task Group ended FY24 with $18.8m in cash and no debt.

Based on the agreement with PAR Technology Corp which includes cash consideration of $0.81 per Task Group share and scrip consideration in US-listed PAR common stock, the analyst lifts the target price to 86c from 85c. Hold retained.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.02
If TSK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Among various risks, Ord Minnett believes investors may be concerned about potential merchant defections after a subsidiary of competitor Lightspeed, point-of-sale partner to Tyro Payments, was found marketing Lightspeed terminals directly to Tyro's merchants.

The broker feels such concerns, and concerns regarding cost of living pressures on consumers, are overblown, and considers Tyro is materially undervalued, given its superior utility to merchants, which should counter risks, and temporary court ruling in Tyro's favour.

Target falls to $1.70 from $1.85 due to competition and reduced volume forecasts. Buy retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.88
If TYR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 107% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 93.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Sell (5) -

UBS maintain a cautious outlook on Australian banks, noting share prices have surged by around 30% in the past six months, driven by strong capital returns. 

The broker stresses the underlying earnings trends show sustained competitive pressures and cost inflation. 

Equally, sector earnings declined by -2% over the past 6 months, with net interest margins (NIM) down circa -5 bps; revenues grew by 1%, and loan growth was 2%. 

The broker also highlights the return on equity (ROE) contracted by -30 bps to 11.2%. 

Major banks are trading at circa 16x forward EPS, above historical averages, suggesting valuations are running ahead of fundamental earnings.

The Sell rating is unchanged for Westpac and the target price lifted to $25 from $24.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $26.63 Difference: minus $1.63 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.40, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Morgans lifts its long-term coal price expectations, with net present value uplifts for coal miners moderated by higher cost assumptions.

The recently acquired Queensland met coal assets transform Whitehaven Coal’s equity appeal via superior scale, diversification and investor reach, the broker suggests.

Target rises to $10.30 from $8.90, Add retained.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $8.25 Difference: $2.05
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.88, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources