Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AHG as Outperform (1) -

The company has issued a profit warning and Macquarie analysts, in an initial response, highlight it looks like market consensus needs to reset at a level -10% lower.

As it turns out, the recovery in WA private sector volumes is tracking behind expectations, which is not surprising to Macquarie analysts. The analysts are willing to keep the faith in that a genuine recovery will ultimately eventuate. Outperform. Target $4.20.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $1.14
If AHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.95, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASB as Accumulate (2) -

Negotiations for the construction of the Australian government's offshore patrol vessels have not generated a proposal that represents an acceptable level of value for Luerssen. As such, Austal will not be involved in the construction process.

Ord Minnett considers the news may be a positive as the contract is immaterial to overall group earnings and building vessels on sub-optimal returns would be far more detrimental for shareholders in the medium term. However, it is disappointing for the company in that the contract would have provided throughput at the Henderson shipyard for several years.

Accumulate rating maintained and target is $2.05.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.28
If ASB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AST as Neutral (3) -

FY18 results were ahead of estimates. Credit Suisse decreases FY19 forecasts to reflect a decline in metering revenue, some of which reverses in FY20.

FY19 distribution guidance of 9.72c per share represents 5% growth, ahead of expectations, but on reflection is not inconsistent with the current level of asset growth once contracted assets are included.

While efficiency gains are driving momentum more is needed in the broker's view to meet management targets. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.85.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.1
If AST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AST as Underweight (5) -

FY18 revenue was largely in line with estimates. The company has guided to FY19 distribution of 9.72c per share, higher than Morgan Stanley anticipated.

The company has stated it is on track to achieve top quartile benchmark efficiency status in electricity distribution in 2019.

Underweight rating and $1.71 target maintained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $1.71 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.01
If AST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AST as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

FY18 results beat estimates. Morgans upgrades FY19-21 materially, assuming efficiency initiatives are able to hold underlying costs flat until the next regulatory re-sets are applicable.

With cash flow in FY18 stronger than expected and capital expenditure lower, concerns the broker previously had about the key credit metric for the company's credit rating have dissipated.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold. Target rises to $1.88 from $1.77.

Target price is $1.88 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.18
If AST meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AST as Hold (3) -

FY18 operating earnings were slightly below Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker expects the company to grow its unregulated asset-base to the targeted $1bn by 2021 and to implement further dividend increases without exceeding debt metrics.

Ord Minnett forecasts $500m in development capital expenditure over the next four years with dividends growing at 5% per annum beyond FY20. Hold rating maintained. Target is lowered to $1.83 from $1.88.

Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.13
If AST meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Western Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly over recent weeks. Regardless, Macquarie suggests strong increases for BHP may not be sufficient to hit full year guidance.

Any miss in guidance by major producers is likely to present a positive catalyst for the broader iron ore markets, in the broker's opinion. Outperform rating and $36.10 target maintained.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $33.75 Difference: $2.35
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.87, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

BlueScope Steel has issued a positive profit warning, increasing guidance for the second half of financial year 2018. Macquarie analysts, in an initial assessment, were already positioned above guidance, but have still been positively surprised.

North America remains the key driver, explain the analysts. They note macro conditions remain supportive for the company. Outperform maintained. Target $19.60.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $17.98 Difference: $1.62
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.12, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -

Based on observations of price and spread movements, Ord Minnett estimates BlueScope has already far exceeded its second half FY18 guidance. Taking the potential upside from North Star and Australian steel products it would appear that the company and consensus need to upgrade forecasts.

BlueScope has guided to average spreads of US$40/t-plus over the first half at North Star. The broker estimates spreads are almost four times higher to date. Accumulate rating and $18 target maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.98 Difference: $0.02
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.12, suggesting upside of 0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Commonwealth Bank's CFO, Rob Jesudason, has resigned with immediate effect. Alan Docherty will take over as acting group CFO after having previously been CFO for the institutional banking and markets business.

UBS notes CBA has been through a period of significant disruption and has witnessed the resignation of former CEO Ian Narev. In addition, there are currently acting heads in several senior roles.

UBS believes the latest enforceable undertakings will continue to add higher legal, compliance and project costs and be disruptive to the course of business. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $74 target.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $71.27 Difference: $2.73
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $75.38, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMW as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie attended a presentation hosted by the company in Milan with a focus on the recently listed CEREIT. This listed in November last year with Cromwell taking a 35% stake. This business has the right of first refusal of product that Cromwell is divesting.

It now represents around 27% of the company's assets under management in Europe and Cromwell wants this captive recurring income stream to increase to 70-80% over time.

With potential for further capital available from Asia for deployment into Europe the company is well placed in this regard, in Macquarie's view. Underperform rating and $0.95 target maintained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CMW as Hold (3) -

The company has briefed on its European business, CEREIT. This is a recently listed vehicle containing EUR1.4bn of the company's EUR 4bn in total assets under management in Europe.

Ord Minnett will look for CEREIT to demonstrate an ability to raise and deploy capital as well as an update on European assets under management before changing forecasts.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and $1.06 target.

Target price is $1.06 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If CMW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.02, suggesting downside of -6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Hold (3) -

First half results beat estimates. The company has proved to Morgans that it can still grow earnings despite a decline in cattle prices. Management remains confident of delivering 5-10% growth in earnings out to FY20.

Morgans notes the share price has been particularly strong this year and speculation suggests that Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology, which recently became a substantial shareholder, is likely to increase its holding. A highly accretive corporate transaction is the key upside risk.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $7.70 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

Western Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly over recent weeks. Regardless, Macquarie suggests strong increases for Fortescue may not be sufficient to hit full year guidance.

Any miss in guidance by major producers is likely to present a positive catalyst for the broader iron ore markets, in the broker's opinion.

Outperform retained. Target is $5.40.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: $0.47
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

Post the sale of the Door & Access Systems operations at two times book value, Citi analysts have bumped up their price target by 16% to $3.77. Neutral rating retained (see share price).

Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.08
If GWA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GWA as Sell (5) -

The company has sold its door & access business for $107m. The price represents an attractive multiple based on Deutsche Bank's FY18 forecasts.

Hold rating retained. Target is $3.39.

Target price is $3.39 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GWA as Neutral (3) -

The company will sell its door & access systems business for $107m. Macquarie considers the sale a solid outcome which will allow the company to focus on its core bathrooms & kitchens business.

The broker believes the stock is fairly valued and the strong balance sheet, boosted by the sale, as well as the dividend yield of around 5% should provide valuation support. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises 7% to $3.54.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GWA as Hold (3) -

The company has announced the sale of its door & access systems business for $107m. Morgans believes completion of the sale in early FY19 should leave plenty of capacity to pursue organic growth opportunities.

The broker believes the sole focus on bathrooms & kitchens going forward and a strong balance sheet warrant a higher multiple for the stock.

However, with a 12-month forecast shareholder return of -3%, a Hold rating is maintained. Target rises to $3.62 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.62 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If GWA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates HSO as Hold (3) -

Brookfield Asset Management has made an unsolicited non-binding indicative cash offer of $2.50 a share. The company intends to provide existing shareholders with an opportunity to continue their investment in a privatised Healthscope.

Deutsche Bank has a Hold rating and $2.05 target.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If HSO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HSO as Hold (3) -

Morgans is surprised that Canadian firm, Brookfield Asset Management, has raised the ante on Healthscope, making an all-cash takeover bid of $2.50 a share. This offer is a 6% premium to BGH Capital's bid.

The broker considers the price a little rich in light of ongoing uncertainties that face Healthscope and, with additional competitive tension now thrown into the mix, suggests it is difficult to know how it will pan out. Hold rating and $2.42 target maintained.

Target price is $2.42 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If HSO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNK as Outperform (1) -

As Link has issued its best guess estimate that proposed changes to superannuation sleepers will have a revenue impact of $55m by 2020, Macquarie analysts, in an initial response, point out this is not taking into account potential mitigating factors.

Macquarie remains of the view the recent share price performance following the Budget announcement was an over-reaction and there is value at current share price level. Outperform. Target $9.20.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: $2.03
If LNK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LNK as Neutral (3) -

New measures for superannuation accounts consolidation announced in the federal budget could significantly accelerate the headwinds for the company. Although Link, to date, has not quantified the impact UBS suggests it could lose -12-20% of accounts in its key funds administration division.

Combined with the recent mandate losses, UBS lowers forecasts by -12% by FY20. Additional re-pricing initiatives and increased super fund administration outsourcing over time may temper the medium-term impact.

Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $7.65 from $9.10.

Target price is $7.65 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: $0.48
If LNK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.25, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MYR as Sell (5) -

The broker is forecasting a -4.9% year on year decline when Myer reports March Q sales this week. Kmart ((WES)) and Big W ((WOW)) have both been investing in price recently and disinflationary pressure is weighing on the broader department store sector, the broker notes.

A warm start to winter won't have helped either. A strategy realignment is expected when the new CEO takes over but in the meantime Myer is in danger of breaching debt covenants. Sell and 41c target retained.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.03
If MYR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

Post the company's Investor Day, Citi analysts report the event confirmed Orora's "solid" growth outlook remains intact. In Australia, the analysts anticipate further margin expansion and earnings momentum.

In North America growth has slowed, but Citi sees this as temporary. M&A is on the back burner for the time being, because asset prices are too elevated, with company management having redirected the focus on organic growth measures, the analysts report. Buy rating reiterated.

Estimates for FY18 have been slightly reduced, including for bad debt provision regarding Toys R Us, but FY19 remains intact and FY20 forecasts have been slightly lifted. Target $3.70 (unchanged).

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.22
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie tweaks some of its numbers further in the wake of last week's investor briefing.

FY18 estimates for earnings per share are reduced by -1% to account for additional US bad debt provisions. FY19 is raised by 1.1% amid benefits from the Victorian wind farm deal and lower Australian dollar forecasts.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.59 from $3.54.

Target price is $3.59 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.11
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

Morgans is slightly more positive on the company's growth prospects after the investment briefing. While growth prospects in Australasia appear promising this is offset by a somewhat sluggish performance in North America.

M&A opportunities are back on the table although management has reiterated an intention to remain disciplined. Morgans maintains an Add rating and increases the target to $3.68 from $3.54.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.2
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett is more confident on the growth expectations for the Australasian business after the company's investor briefing.

In North America the company continues to believe end markets remain challenged, although there is potential for investment in the division both organically and through disciplined M&A.

Accumulate retained. Target is $3.55.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: $0.07
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFH as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Specialty Fashion has sold its Autograph, Katies, Millers and Rivers brands to Noni B ((NBL)) for $31m, leaving City Chic as Specialty's only remaining brand. City Chic is growing sales at 5-10% on improving margins, Citi notes.

Net of the cost of the exit, Specialty will now be cash positive from the sale and on the free cash flow City Chic can generate, and will possibly resume dividend payments, Citi suggests. Upgrade to Buy (High Risk). Target rises to 75c from 48c.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.16
If SFH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -

Auris Minerals ((AUR)) and Sandfire Resources are in trading halts pending release of results from the Morck's Well project in Western Australia, which is adjacent to Sandfire's Monty and DeGrussa.

Credit Suisse notes Sandfire has been aggressively exploring ground and via joint ventures for additional ore feed to extend the life of DeGrussa, believing the region should host multiple VMS occurrences.

Rating is Underperform. Target is $6.10.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.25, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates SVW as Buy (1) -

The company's upgrade to guidance highlights a strong cyclical recovery that is underway and Deutsche Bank notes the efficiencies achieved through the downturn are evident in the strong margin momentum in Westrac and Coates.

Product support continues to build a sustainable revenue base and the broker suggests this is improving earnings quality. Buy rating maintained. Target is $21.60.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $20.17 Difference: $1.43
If SVW meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SVW as Buy (1) -

The company has upgraded FY18 earnings growth guidance to 20-25%. This stronger earnings outlook was largely anticipated, UBS suggests, and implies an FY18 EBIT range of $452-471m.

The company has attributed the upgrade to continued recovery in WA/NSW mining production as well as sustained strength in east coast infrastructure activity.

UBS upgrades forecasts for FY18 and FY19 by 4% and 2% respectively. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $22.55 from $21.50.

Target price is $22.55 Current Price is $20.17 Difference: $2.38
If SVW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.41, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TAH as Outperform (1) -

Victoria has announced that it will replace the existing state wagering tax with a point of consumption tax that catches all wagering operators in the country. This will come into effect of January 1, 2019. The point of consumption tax is set at 8%.

Credit Suisse regards this development as positive for Tabcorp. It increases the costs for competitors and, by FY20, may constrain marketing activities of competitors.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and $5.20 target.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.59
If TAH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -

The Victorian government has announced an 8% point of consumption tax on wagering from January 1, 2019. Morgan Stanley considers this a positive as it will erode the benefits currently enjoyed by online competitors.

In the near term, the broker expects online bookmakers will seek to outgrow the impact by focusing on market share gains.

Overweight rating and $5.20 target. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.59
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TAH as Lighten (4) -

The Victorian government has announced an 8% point of consumption tax. The announcement follows lobbying from corporate and offshore bookmakers to impose a lower rate in Victoria following the 15% tax announced by South and Western Australia.

Ord Minnett suspects higher prices may be passed on to the gambler with limited turnover impact. Ord Minnett finds a lack of valuation support amid significant execution risks with regard to the integration of the UBET brand and other Tatts divisions. Lighten maintained. Target is reduced to $4.20 from $4.35.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If TAH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

The Victorian government has announced an 8% point of consumption tax on all wagering operators commencing from January 2019. Tabcorp will also incur a 1.5% increase in its average tax rate in Victoria but could have an offset for the tax already paid through its retail licence.

UBS suggests an offset would create a neutral outcome for Tabcorp but, if there is no offset, FY19 earnings per share are estimated to decline by -1.2%, all else being equal.

Buy and $5.20 target retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.59
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLS as Sell (5) -

Telstra's guidance downgrade highlights the acceleration of the decline in core earnings and hence quick and drastic action needs to be taken, the broker declares, to minimise the next dividend cut. With limited scope for core growth, aggressive cost-cutting and asset sales should be considered.

5G will be cheaper to deliver than 4G but will lead to data limit increases rather than greater profitability, the broker suggests. Intense competition among NBN providers means any wholesale price cuts will simply be competed away. Sell retained, target falls to $2.70 from $3.10.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates TLS as Buy (1) -

The company has guided to EBITDA for FY18 at the bottom end of guidance of $10.1-10.6bn. Competitive pressure in the third quarter has led to lower minimum monthly commitments in fixed data and declines in postpaid handheld ARPU.

Challenging conditions are expected to continue. While free cash flow guidance is at the top end or above the $4.2-4.8bn range Deutsche Bank suspects this is primarily driven by favourable timing of working capital movements. A Buy rating is maintained. Target is $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.98
If TLS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

The company has revised FY18 guidance and EBITDA is expected to be at the bottom end of the $10.1-10.6bn range. Macquarie suggests this highlights competitive pressures and bodes poorly for the FY19 outlook.

The broker reduces FY19 estimates for dividends to $0.20 from $0.22. FY18 and FY19 EPS estimates are lowered by -6.7% and -9.6% respectively.

Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.55.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.28
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Add (1) -

Telstra has narrowed its guidance range, broadly in line with Morgans. The company has pointed to increased competition that is likely to persist in FY19.

Morgans takes the opportunity to lower subscriber ARPU, which reduces revenue and, given fixed cost leverage, lowers EBITDA. FY19 estimates are downgraded by -4%. Target decreases to $3.99 from $4.12. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $3.99 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $1.07
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the company has lowered its guidance for almost all metrics except free cash flow. Management has cited difficult trading conditions in both the mobile and fixed segments.

Ord Minnett considers a reduction to the dividend by FY21 almost inevitable. A steeper decline in mobile ARPU is expected over this year and next. The broker maintains a Hold rating but lowers the target to $3.30 from $3.70.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.38
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

Telstra has lowered operating earnings guidance to the lower end of the prior $10.1-10.6bn range. The reasons for this include declines in fixed data, declines in out-of-bundle consumer mobile revenue and worsening momentum.

Based on the status quo UBS envisages downside to long-term earnings per share of $0.22. The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $3.10 from $3.30.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.18
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TME as Buy (1) -

Trade Me's inaugural investor day highlighted management's ambition to expand beyond its core and into adjacent product for its three classified categories, the broker notes. Having deleveraged over recent years, the company is in a position to grow organically and through M&A.

It won't happen overnight, and the broker notes so many growth options have been identified that prioritisation will be critical, however, Trade Me is undervalued relative to its Australian peers and the broker retains Buy and a $5.15 target.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $0.73
If TME meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.15, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources