Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades 29Metals to Hold from Buy, with the target price lowered to 35c from 75c.

The company announced a 1-for-1.43 non-renounceable entitlement issue at 27c per share to raise $180m, with Australian Super and BUMA Australia taking up their rights, which would increase their stakes to 18% and 19.9%, respectively, the broker states.

Ord Minnett cuts EPS forecasts by -34% for 2024 and 2025 due to dilution, and the analyst highlights the miner will be cashflow negative for the next two years as it invests in projects.

The raising is intended to fund 29Metals' copper-zinc Gossan Valley mine in WA.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 64.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Ai-Media Technologies updated the market on its targets and strategic goals at its AGM and Technology Demonstration Day.

Morgans notes the company plans to increase Go-To-Market spending in FY25 by around $4m, aimed at improving the product offering and expanding the sales team.

The analyst views this increased investment as supporting the development of $60m in earnings by FY29. Adjusting for the near-term spending, the broker lowers earnings estimates by approximately -33% over the next three years.

Morgans believes that if Ai-Media Technologies achieves its earnings targets, the reward justifies the risk.

Add rating maintained, with the target price increasing to $1 from 70c.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.22
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a decline in new vehicle sales of -11.6% in November, with year-to-date sales up 0.6% compared to 2023.

The analyst notes sales of key vehicles for ARB Corp fell -22.6%, highlighting the notable impact on the light commercial vehicle market. Sales of the two best-performing utes dropped -20.9% for the Ford Ranger and -39.5% for the Toyota Hilux.

Ord Minnett expects new vehicle sales to continue moderating over FY25 but notes ARB Corp's order book remains strong.

No change to the Buy rating and $47.15 target price.

Target price is $47.15 Current Price is $41.58 Difference: $5.57
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.20, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BCB as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners previews the December quarter trading update, which is expected to be "solid" for Bowen Coking Coal.

The analyst notes mining at the Ellensfield South pit is ongoing, and production has commenced at Plumtree North, with the potential for a seasonally stronger coal price.

The broker retains a positive view on coking coal, citing global steel production advancing in line with global GDP growth. Bowen is highly leveraged to higher prices, with a US$25/t change in the coking coal price increasing valuation by 1c and earnings by approximately $50m.

Buy rating retained with a high-risk designation and a 4c target price.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.032
If BCB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 400% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

No change to Outperform rating and $1.90 target price for Bellevue Gold.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.64
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Bannerman Energy continues to progress the Etango uranium project toward a final investment decision, with a cash position of $95.7m.

Etango has an expected 15-year life, with annual production of 3.5mlbs and pre-production capex of US$353m.

The broker remains highly optimistic about the prospects for uranium, citing Bannerman Energy's recent quarterly update, which noted "current term contract conditions have not yet fully aligned" with the company’s long-term market outlook.

Shaw and Partners expects uranium prices to rise, as both US and European utilities remain uncovered for fuel needs from 2026–2028. The broker anticipates a "multi-year" price spike to US$150/lb before stabilising around the long-term price assumption of US$74/lb.

Buy, High risk rating and $7.40 target price are retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $4.66
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 170% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Citi has initiated coverage of Boss Energy with Buy rating describing the company as a play on rising uranium demand due to the projected global supply deficit and nuclear energy’s role in the global energy transition and artificial intelligence.

Boss’s cornerstone asset is the Honeymoon Uranium Project, in South Australia, targeting 2.45mlb U3O8 in FY27. This project, the broker highlights, is one of a few only of uranium projects globally ready to come on-stream in the early stages of the emerging uranium bull market.

Citi suggests, following share price weakness, the stock looks oversold. Boss Energy owns 100% of Honeymoon. Target $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.66 Difference: $0.74
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.07, suggesting upside of 56.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Neutral (3) -

Bravura Solutions has raised FY25 guidance, with revenue guidance up 2% at the midpoint, alongside an upgrade in cash earnings by 15% at the midpoint and earnings up 12% at the midpoint, Macquarie highlights.

Cost expectations remain unchanged, suggesting robust operating leverage from the expected revenue increase, according to the analyst.

The guidance excludes the one-off impact from the license sale to Fidelity, with an additional payment of around $10m expected in FY25.

Bravura also announced the reinstatement of dividends with the 1H25 results.

Macquarie raises EPS forecasts by 17% for FY25/FY26 and medium-term estimates by 15%-16%.

Target price increases to $2.05 from $1.32, with a Neutral rating maintained. Further upside in the share price depends on revenue growth.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.05
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

On follow-through assessment post this week's FY24 release, Citi analysts have decided to upgrade their rating for Collins Foods to Buy from Neutral.

Current Price is $8.23. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Target price for Capricorn Metals lifts to $7 from $6.90. No change to Outperform rating. The broker notes the delivery of Mt Gibson Gold project remains important for the company's longer-term outlook.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.46 Difference: $0.54
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.35, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COS as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades Cosol to Buy from Hold, with a 9% increase in the target price to $1.20.

Cosol has announced the acquisition of data analytics company Toustone for -$12m upfront (-$22.4m in total), with annual revenue of $12m generated through a recurring subscription-based model.

The broker highlights Toustone's "blue-chip" client base, which includes exposure to the transport, agriculture, and heavy industry infrastructure sectors.

Bell Potter raises EPS forecasts by 4% and 6% for FY25 and FY26, respectively. A higher valuation and EPS account for the increase in the target price.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.185
If COS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COS as Buy (1) -

Cosol has acquired data analytics company Toustone for -$22.4m, which Ord Minnett considers a reasonable valuation for a "solid" transaction.

The analyst expects the acquisition to add approximately 11% to EPS in FY26 and views it as complementary to management's aim for "next-gen productivity."

Toustone is a data platform focused on solving complex data problems and generating recurring annual revenue, the broker highlights.

Target price increases to $1.25 from $1.20. No change to the Buy rating.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.235
If COS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DEG as No Rating (-1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

The broker is restricted on Northern Star Resources, De Grey Mining, and Gold Road Resources.

Current Price is $1.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.12, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners focuses on the potential for DroneShield to secure a role in the Australian Defense Force's Project LAND 156 as a systems integration partner. The company is aligned with the project's stipulation for scalable, agile, and cost-effective counter-small uncrewed aerial systems.

The broker emphasises winning the contract would represent a "pivotal" growth opportunity for DroneShield.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy rating with a High Risk designation. The target price remains $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.5
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

THe Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

The broker is restricted on Northern Star Resources, De Grey Mining, and Gold Road Resources.

Macquarie notes the ramp up of Cowal, Paradigm and improvement at Red Lake are important for Evolution Mining to meet FY25 guidance.

Target price lifts to $5 from $4.60. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GL1 as Buy (1) -

Global Lithium Resources has purchased seven tenements adjacent to the Marble Bar lithium project at a low cost, which contain significant gold-in-soil geochemistry, Shaw and Partners notes.

The Talgas project has been acquired from Octava Minerals ((OCT)) for $200,000 worth of shares and $200,000 in cash. The broker observes the project contains a 12km gold trend.

Buy rating retained, with a High Risk designation and a $2.20 target price. Shaw and Partners believes the market is "severely underestimating" the value of Global Lithium Resources, with 50mt of lithium resource at the current share price.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $1.995
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 973% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 437.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Macquarie upgrades the target price for Genesis Minerals to $3 from $2.70 and retains an Outperform rating. The stock is the broker's preferred mid-cap in the sector.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.59
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.78, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating (-1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

The broker is restricted on Northern Star Resources, De Grey Mining, and Gold Road Resources.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $0.1
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUM as Initiate coverage with a Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage of Humm Group with a Buy rating and a 90c target price.

The broker observes Humm has grown its receivables book to $5bn from around $3.2bn at the end of FY22, with commercial doubling over the period to approximately $3bn.

Consumer is generating modest growth, the analyst notes, and should benefit from higher net interest margins as the interest rate cycle turns.

Return on equity is also expected to improve due to the flow program, where $500m in receivables have been "offloaded" to MA Financial ((MAF))

Buy rating maintained. Target price 90c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.235
If HUM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IDX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage of Integral Diagnostics with a Buy rating and a $3.97 target price following the proposed merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)), subject to ACCC informal clearance.

The analyst observes the merged group will become the third-largest radiology operator by clinics, with over 150 sites, expected revenue exceeding $750m, and earnings of approximately $105m.

A rise in market share in the "lucrative" MRI sector, as described by the broker, is estimated at over 100bps to 8.2%, driven by the mix of community and well-serviced clinic sites.

Deregulation of the MRI sector has the potential to increase trading hours and access to the 16 MRI machines eligible to upgrade from partial licenses to full licenses.

Buy rating maintained. Target price $3.97.

Target price is $3.87 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.83
If IDX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 14.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMR as Sepculative Buy (1) -

Morgans details that Imricor Medical Systems has added another clinical trial site to the US program, Lausanne University Hospital (Switzerland), which completed its first Atrial Flutter procedure on November 27 and is one of three sites enrolling patients.

The broker expects FDA approval by mid-2025.

Speculative Buy rating unchanged. Target price increases to $1.51 from $1.08 due to a rise in the long-term growth rate. No changes to earnings forecasts.

Target price is $1.51 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.33
If IMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MEK as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans visited Meeka Metals' Murchison Gold project, which revealed a "functional" layout that lends itself to improved productivity and morale, according to the analyst.

The processing plant, constructed in 2012, remains in very good condition, and the 20km open-pit haul road is ahead of schedule, with completion expected by January.

First gold processing is anticipated by mid-2025.

Morgans reiterates the Speculative Buy rating and 19c target price.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.111
If MEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

The broker is restricted on Northern Star Resources, De Grey Mining, and Gold Road Resources.

Target price increases to $85 from $82, with an Outperform rating. Earnings forecasts are upgraded by 5% for 2024 and 31% for 2025.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $64.59 Difference: $20.41
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as No Rating (-1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

The broker is restricted on Northern Star Resources, De Grey Mining, and Gold Road Resources.

Current Price is $16.14. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Outperform rating maintained. Target price lifts to $3.60 from $3.40. Perseus Mining is the top West African pick.

Vault Minerals is Macquarie's preferred smaller-cap producers. Genesis Minerals is the broker's preferred mid-cap stock.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.97
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

In Rio Tinto's latest strategy update, management confirmed their conviction in the energy transition, which is expected to underpin lithium demand at a level five times larger by 2050.

Rio plans to build Rincon with a nameplate capacity of 60ktpa, approximately 13% larger than previous targets and 20% above Macquarie's estimate. The proposed acquisition of Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)) could drive production growth to around 460kt by 2033.

Development of the Oyu Tolgoi underground remains on track, the analyst states, with processing plants expected to be completed in 2025. First iron ore at Simandou is anticipated in late 2025, as construction progresses according to current plans.

No change to the Neutral rating and $119 target price.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $120.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.17, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto's 2025 iron ore and copper volume guidance are -2-6% below Morgan Stanley, with no iron ore cost guidance provided. Overall, the broker calculates -2-3% downside to 2025 consensus earnings.

The capex budget is US$1bn above Morgan Stanley for 2025, with the medium-term range moderately lifted. The broker thinks the Winu JV has potential to lower funding costs and accelerate project development.

Assuming completion of the Arcadium Lithium ((LTM)) acquisition, Rio Tinto expects lithium production to grow by more than three times by 2028 to 225ktpa with further potential to 460ktpa by 2033. Overweight and $135 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $120.08 Difference: $14.92
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.17, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Neutral (3) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

No change to the Neutral rating for Ramelius Resources. Target price lifts to $2.60 from $2.50.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.49
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Target price lifts to $3.10 from $3 for Regis Resources with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.56 Difference: $0.54
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.65, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Resolute Mining remains Outperform rated with a 58c target, up from 57c.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.16
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Outperform rating retained with a lift in target price to 53c from 49c for St. Barbara.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.2
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Sheffield Resources has announced guidance for 2Q25 for the Thunderbird mine, which has exceeded Ord Minnett's forecasts.

Targeted ilmenite and zircon concentrate sales are guided higher than expected, and the broker anticipates revenue of $51m in the December quarter, up from $36m previously.

Management is expected to cut -20% off the workforce as part of cost/productivity measures, with potential savings of -$5m-$6m.

Ord Minnett raises the target price to 9c from 8c and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGF as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

SG Fleet has accepted a $3.50/share bid from Private Equity. The stock now trades to probabilities of completion as opposed to
fundamentals, Morgan Stanley notes.

Super Group holds 53.6% of SG Fleet shares and deal completion does also require Super Group shareholder approval. The Super Group Board unanimously recommends their shareholders vote in favour.

The broker now moves to Equal-weight from Overweight with a target matching the bid price at $3.50, down from $3.60. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.08
If SGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SKO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the acquisition of GetThere and partnerships with Booking Holdings and Sabre will boost Serko internationally, with potential upside for an earnings upgrade.

The company's software has around 70% market share in A&NZ but remains low globally. The acquisition is expected to increase market share in North America, with the partnerships providing access to established brands, customer bases, and sales teams, the analyst states.

Serko also announced a -NZ$40m accelerated investment program in addition to R&D spending of approximately -NZ$40m annually.

Macquarie raises EPS estimates by 3% for FY25 and 11% for FY26 but remains below management's FY30 revenue target by -21%.

Target price decreases to NZ$4.38 from NZ$5. Outperform rating unchanged. The company's Investor Day is scheduled for December 10.

Current Price is $3.39. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 49.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Outperform rating maintained. Target price lifts to 54c from 50c. Vault Minerals is Macquarie's preferred smaller-cap producers. Genesis Minerals is the broker's preferred mid-cap stock and Perseus Mining is the top West African pick.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.2
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy team has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Outperform rating retained for West African Resources. Target price lifts to $2.10 from $2.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.59
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights Woodside Energy's decision to progress with Bechtel is expected following the announcement of a revised contract with EPC for foundation work on the Louisiana LNG project, which the broker believes is emerging as a premium US LNG project.

The analyst notes Bechtel is a leader in the LNG industry, and Woodside's experience with the company at Pluto Train 2 has been positive.

Management has guided capex of -US$900–US$960/t excluding the pipeline. The broker’s forecasts assume -US$960/t or -US$15.8bn, with an additional -US$800m for the pipeline and -US$50m per annum in sustaining capex.

The $27 target price and Neutral rating are maintained.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $24.86 Difference: $2.14
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.63, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

The Macquarie Commodities Strategy has updated the mid-term outlook for gold, forecasting an average quarterly cycle peak of US$2,800/oz in 2Q 2025.

The long-term gold price assumption is US$2,000/oz (real). Macquarie highlights that these changes result in slight EPS upgrades across the broker's sector coverage, with target prices rising by an average of 5%.

Newmont Corp remains the preferred large-cap gold stock, with 2025 guidance risk now viewed as minimal following recent updates.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating on Westgold Resources with an upgraded target price of $3.70 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $0.89
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WTC as Overweight (1) -

There is no change to any of Morgan Stanley's forecasts for WiseTech Global from the investor day, but the product talk was incrementally positive and boosts conviction in the broker's bullish thesis.

The breadth and depth of R&D and investment are very significant, Morgan Stanley suggests, with work underway on FY26-27 products that are critical in supporting the broker's 26%-plus three-year revenue compound annual growth rate expectation.

Overweight and $160 target retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $129.58 Difference: $30.42
If WTC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.93, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Having returned from WiseTech Global's investor briefings, UBS analysts remain confident in the growth prospects in the company's key product areas.

Product innovation and customer penetration remain the two key elements in the broker's investment thesis.

The briefings surprised through the level of new product features, as well as the depth of knowledge and experience from the range of business leaders at the presentations.

Over time, the analysts continue to see potential for upside surprises. Buy. Target $144.

Target price is $144.00 Current Price is $129.58 Difference: $14.42
If WTC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $141.93, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources