Australian Broker Call
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June 19, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 10:46 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
MGR - | MIRVAC | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
MQG - | MACQUARIE GROUP | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
SUL - | SUPER RETAIL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
Overnight Price: $0.35
Macquarie rates AJM as Underperform (5) -
The company has provided an update on commissioning activity at its Altura lithium project. First concentrate shipments are expected in July/August.
Given its funding structure and the need to finance stage 2, Macquarie believes the company is approaching a critical point and, for equity investors, the risk is to the downside.
Underperform rating and $0.25 target maintained.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AJM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BRG BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $11.42
Ord Minnett rates BRG as Buy (1) -
The US government has updated its original list of imported items from China that are subject to trade tariffs. Ord Minnett notes a majority of the focus is on industrial goods and some of the commercial food items from the original list have been removed.
The broker still expects no significant impact on Breville's earnings, although a ramping up of trade tensions could harm the stock based on sentiment, as China has indicated it will respond. Buy rating and $15.60 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: $4.18
If BRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.56, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.6, implying annual growth of 10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.18
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley believes the market is underestimating the drag to revenue from the core registry business. Pricing is falling in the US and the company continues to lose market share. Computershare is also a notable underperformer in the UK market.
Morgan Stanley believes the risk/reward is unattractive and, as momentum stalls, attention is likely to return to the fundamental headwinds.
Underweight rating. Target is $13.50. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $18.18 Difference: minus $4.68 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.24, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.12 cents and EPS of 82.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.46 cents and EPS of 89.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.4, implying annual growth of 13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FLT FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism
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Overnight Price: $62.74
Deutsche Bank rates FLT as Hold (3) -
Deutsche Bank observes travel volumes in April slowed after a strong March. While Easter can cloud the numbers the broker does not believe this will have been a factor.
International returns in April grew by 4.0%, which represents a deterioration relative to the 7.3% growth in March. Hold rating and $52 target maintained.
Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $62.74 Difference: minus $10.74 (current price is over target).
If FLT meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $53.14, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 271.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 273.4, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 299.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 301.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
HVN HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED
Consumer Electronics
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Overnight Price: $3.45
UBS rates HVN as Neutral (3) -
UBS reduces forecasts for Harvey Norman by -5-6% and takes a more cautious outlook on housing. The broker believes Harvey Norman is the most exposed of the listed retailers.
UBS suggests that the top-line and margins will be under pressure on a 1-3-year view as competitive headwinds are building with Amazon and capital management is looking less likely.
The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $3.50 from $4.10.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.05
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of -19.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.23
Credit Suisse rates MGR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Whilst the company has reaffirmed FY18 guidance, a number of external factors point to a deteriorating residential market.
One of these is tougher regulatory scrutiny and a focus on expenses which is leading to tighter lending standards. The broker reduces the target to $2.38 from $2.50.
Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.23 Difference: $0.15
If MGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -50.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 3.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.96
Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie identifies a considerable value gap between the current share price and its DCF valuation. The broker believes Michael Hill should be able to deliver on the considerable growth potential in the core business.
The broker expects the renewed focus on operations, product and new technology should underpin gains in market share and provide the catalyst for margin expansion.
Outperform maintained. Target is $1.30.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.34
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 35.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -35.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 49.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $16.52
Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -
The company has updated the market on its DSO volumes, expecting shipments to progressively decline to zero by the end of 2018.
FY18 operating earnings guidance of more than $500m has been reiterated despite successive DSO downgrades, which suggests to Ord Minnett that the crushing business is exceeding expectations.
The broker reduces its final dividend assumptions to $0.35 per share from $0.40. Hold maintained. Target is reduced to $18.00 from $19.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $16.52 Difference: $1.48
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.45, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 156.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.3, implying annual growth of 44.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 138.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.3, implying annual growth of 16.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MLX as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie updates forecasts to incorporate the latest port shipment data. The broker cuts forecasts for Nifty to one shipment from two. A weak June quarter is expected because of production losses relating to the planned replacement of the underground conveyor as well as issues with stoping.
The broker remains confident that the company will achieve production rates of over 30,000tpa in the next 12 months. Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $1.10 from $1.30.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.82 Difference: $0.28
If MLX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $118.97
Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes Macquarie Group is benefiting from a favourable and diversified business mix. On a five-year outlook the broker is increasingly confident and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight.
Morgan Stanley observes the business is geared to the real economy, not just financial markets, and remains a leading alternative asset manager. Initial guidance is also usually conservative, implying upside risk to consensus expectations. Target is raised to $130 from $100.
Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $118.97 Difference: $11.03
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $114.14, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 535.00 cents and EPS of 758.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 776.2, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 548.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 550.00 cents and EPS of 799.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 804.9, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 576.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.78
Deutsche Bank rates MTS as Hold (3) -
While no update was provided for liquor & hardware at the recent update regarding the future of the food business without Drakes Supermarkets from 2019, Deutsche Bank expects solid results for FY18 because of the contribution from new liquor contracts.
The main issues will be whether cost reductions are sufficient to offset operating de-leverage in food and the earnings impact from the loss of Drakes. Hold maintained. Target is $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.02
If MTS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of -13.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 47.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLS PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED
New Battery Elements
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Overnight Price: $0.91
Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -
The company has completed the first shipment of DSO from its Pilgangoora project. Commissioning of the concentrator is also well advanced and first concentrate is expected by the end of June.
Macquarie suggests this will be a significant achievement and, with offtake and funding already secured, expects the company to move directly to phase 2.
Outperform and $1.20 target retained.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.29
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.10, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $84.16
Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -
Rio Tinto has reaffirmed expectations that it will achieve system capacity of 360mtpa from its Pilbara iron ore operations by the end of 2019 once the rail automation is completed. Capital expenditure will rise over the next few years.
Citi observes productivity improvements are also required to offset operating costs from higher diesel and the modest cost pressures returning in labour/contractors. The broker maintains a Buy rating and $86 target.
Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $84.16 Difference: $1.84
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 396.91 cents and EPS of 669.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 731.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 340.21 cents and EPS of 565.46 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.4, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 380.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
The company's presentation on iron ore has confirmed the opportunities in the integrated network and the focus on rail.
Rail and mine are expected to match port capacity by the end of 2019 while sustaining capital expenditure is expected to run at around US$1bn per annum for the next three years. Credit Suisse observes the company's message remains "value over volume".
Outperform and $82 target retained.
Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $84.16 Difference: minus $2.16 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 416.24 cents and EPS of 706.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 731.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 362.11 cents and EPS of 612.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.4, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 380.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
The company has reaffirmed 2018 Pilbara shipment guidance of 330-340mt. Macquarie expects integration of AutoHaul together with the scheduled track improvements will lift rail capacity.
This is expected to reduce the system bottleneck to the port by the end of 2019 when combined with continued technology-driven improvements at mine sites.
Outperform rating retained. Target is $94.
Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $84.16 Difference: $9.84
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 435.57 cents and EPS of 735.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 731.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 371.13 cents and EPS of 617.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.4, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 380.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -
The company has guided to 2018 shipments of 330-340mt. The rail bottleneck is expected to be improved by the end of 2019 with port and mine capacity already at 360mtpa.
Ord Minnett found little new information in the presentation but considers the company's iron ore business the best in class, which should benefit over the long-term from a structural increase in demand for higher quality ore. Accumulate rating and $96 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $96.00 Current Price is $84.16 Difference: $11.84
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.06, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 426.55 cents and EPS of 931.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 731.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 414.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 404.64 cents and EPS of 672.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 639.4, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 380.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.85
Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire the remaining 83% of Arizona Mining for US$1.3bn. The main asset is the Hermosa zinc project where the preliminary economic assessment study has allowed for a mine life of 29 years based on 3.3mt annual throughput and construction capital of US$519m.
Citi considers the transaction a mixed outcome. There is little margin for error based on preliminary work done so far and the broker awaits a bankable feasibility study to obtain more confidence in the project economics.
Neutral rating and $3.80 target maintained.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.33 cents and EPS of 33.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.91 cents and EPS of 26.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire the remaining 83% of Arizona Mining, a base metals explorer listed on the Canadian stock exchange. The company is focused on the development of the Hermosa project in Santa Cruz, Arizona.
Recent drill intercepts have indicated potential upside to the resource grade. Further work and modelling are needed in order to demonstrate this opportunity, Credit Suisse believes. Neutral rating and $3.75 target maintained.
Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.85 cents and EPS of 29.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.46 cents and EPS of 28.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a US$1.3bn offer for the remaining 83% of Arizona Mining. Macquarie believes a lack of growth options in the portfolio has been a consistent source of negative sentiment for the stock.
This latest acquisition and the company's stake in Eagle Downs as well as Trilogy Metals now gives three clear medium-term growth options. The company has stated that the transaction will not affect capital management plans.
Outperform. Target is $4.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.15
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.65 cents and EPS of 32.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.01 cents and EPS of 34.15 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -
The company will acquire the remaining 83% of Arizona Mining for US$1.3bn. This will provide control of the Hermosa project, a zinc/lead/silver resource located in Arizona.
Ord Minnett considers the transaction positive and strategically sound, as it introduces another growth option for the company. Nevertheless, the acquisition is not large enough to change the investment thesis and leads the broker to maintain a Hold rating and $4.00 target.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: $0.15
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.75 cents and EPS of 33.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.94 cents and EPS of 36.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
The company will acquire the remaining 83% of Arizona Mining for US$1.3bn. The company has clarified that, despite the purchase, it remains committed to delivering the remaining US$400m of capital management by April 2019.
UBS considers the acquisition sound with upside potential to increase reserves as the Taylor deposit is open at depth and laterally.
UBS maintains a Neutral rating and $3.70 target.
Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.85 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 32.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 33.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SUL SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED
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Overnight Price: $8.37
UBS rates SUL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
The share price has risen around 30% over the last three months outperforming the market by a similar amount. Super Retail now trades at a -38% discount to the ASX 200 industrials ex financials.
A more negative view on housing has caused UBS to downgrade to Neutral from Buy. The main driver of the Buy call was a large negative valuation implied in the share price for leisure which is now considered more balanced. Target is $8.70.
Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.37 Difference: $0.33
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.52, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 69.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of 35.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.50 cents and EPS of 78.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.1, implying annual growth of 10.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.42
Macquarie rates SXY as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced a partnership with Jemena to construct the processing facility and pipeline at Project Atlas. Macquarie observes the deal removes around $140m in upfront capital expenditure and lowers the debt requirement for Senex Energy.
The broker believes the deal validates the project and expects further near-term catalysts will unlock value. Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and the target is raised to $0.55 from $0.50.
Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.13
If SXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SXY as Equal-weight (3) -
The company will partner with Jemena on Project Atlas. Morgan Stanley considers this a favourable development as it brings a credible partner to the table and reduces Senex Energy's upfront equity investment.
Jemena will build, own and operate the gas facility plus a 60km pipeline to link with the Darling Downs.
Equal-weight maintained. Target is $0.40. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SXY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SXY as Hold (3) -
The company has finalised an agreement with infrastructure operator Jemena for the development of a new 60km pipeline and associated gas processing for Project Atlas. The next stage of Project Atlas will be resource delineation.
Ord Minnett incorporates the agreement into modelling which results in a 2% increase to net present value. Hold rating retained and target raised to $0.46 from $0.45.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.04
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.81
Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -
June quarter guidance has been lowered for the Balama graphite operation. Credit Suisse observes nameplate should be around 88,000t or four times what is now expected in the quarter.
The broker is disappointed with the challenges that have developed in the commissioning but considers this immaterial to valuation.
Outperform and $6.60 target retained.
Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $2.81 Difference: $3.79
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 135% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 75.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.47 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 936.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of 6366.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.61
Morgan Stanley rates TAH as Overweight (1) -
The Western Australian government is considering the sale of the WA TAB, Australia's fourth-largest TAB.
Morgan Stanley estimates a potential acquisition could add seven percentage points of turnover market share, and this would take Tabcorp to around 54% market share on pro forma FY17. It could generate $58-65m in operating earnings from WA TAB.
The broker believes Tabcorp is an attractive defensive growth story. Overweight rating and $5.20 target. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.61 Difference: $0.59
If TAH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.21, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.80 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.40 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
AJM | ALTURA MINING | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.35 |
BRG | BREVILLE GROUP | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.42 |
CPU | COMPUTERSHARE | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $18.18 |
FLT | FLIGHT CENTRE | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $62.74 |
HVN | HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.45 |
MGR | MIRVAC | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.23 |
MHJ | MICHAEL HILL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.96 |
MIN | MINERAL RESOURCES | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $16.52 |
MLX | METALS X | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.82 |
MQG | MACQUARIE GROUP | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $118.97 |
MTS | METCASH | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.78 |
PLS | PILBARA MINERALS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.91 |
RIO | RIO TINTO | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $84.16 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $84.16 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $84.16 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $84.16 | ||
S32 | SOUTH32 | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.85 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.85 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.85 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.85 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.85 | ||
SUL | SUPER RETAIL | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $8.37 |
SXY | SENEX ENERGY | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.42 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $0.42 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.42 | ||
SYR | SYRAH RESOURCES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.81 |
TAH | TABCORP HOLDINGS | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.61 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 12 |
2. Accumulate | 1 |
3. Hold | 12 |
5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 19 June 2018
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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