Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AAC as Buy (1) -

Australian Agricultural Co delivered a stronger-than-expected FY25 result, notes Bell Potter, with earnings (EBITDA) of $58.4m, up 16% year-on-year and ahead of the broker's $38.5m forecast.

Revenue rose 15% to $387.9m and liveweight sales were up 28%, exceeding the analsysts' expectation by 12%. Still, revenue per kg fell -10% due to a shift in sales mix toward live cattle.

Costs-per-kg also worsened by -5%, observes the broker, while operating cash flow turned positive to $9.1m from -$5.1m a year earlier.

No formal FY26 guidance was provided, but feedlot head and inductions are trending higher, implying to the analysts low-to-mid single-digit growth in meat sales. Wagyu pricing was -10% year-on-year but rose 5% in the second half. 

Bell Potter cuts its target price to $1.90 from $1.95 and maintains a Buy rating, citing a robust asset base.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.45
If AAC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ARB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett removes ARB Corp from its Analyst Conviction List and lowers its earnings forecasts by -5-10% across the next three years, citing mounting near-term challenges despite retaining a Buy rating.

Profit growth is expected to be constrained by softer Australian aftermarket sales, weaker export demand, particularly in Europe and the US. The broker points to higher input costs stemming from currency depreciation and increased staffing expenses.

The broker also notes recent tariffs on auto parts will impact US operations, while a slowdown in new vehicle sales continues to weigh on independent retail and export demand.

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating on ARB but highlights elevated short-term risks to profitability. The target falls to $37 from $45.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $30.16 Difference: $6.84
If ARB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.12, suggesting upside of 28.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

Upon initial glance, UBS believes the soft-looking Q3 market update by Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is actually in line with forecasts.

The broker does highlight it believes the result generally is of lower quality.

On a positive observation, the regional lender will from now on release quarterly market updates a la CommBank and Westpac, and the broker very much likes that.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank is currently Neutral-rated with an $11.00 target.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $11.77 Difference: minus $0.77 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BET as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett raises its target price for Betmakers Technology to 21c from 18c and retains a Speculative Buy rating, following a stronger-than-expected April trading update and positive FY26 guidance.

Adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $880,000 implies to the broker a Q4 run-rate 42% ahead of its own forecast. Free cash flow (FCF) also inflected positively, prompting a $1.4m uplift to the analysts' FY26 forecast.

Gross profit margins rose to 65.2% in April, supported by cost savings and operational efficiencies, explains Ord Minnett.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.095
If BET meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 83% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DBI as Add (1) -

Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's guidance at the AGM for terminal infrastructure change (TIC) and DPS for 12 months ending June 2026 were higher than Morgans' forecasts.

The company expects TIC to increase 3.6% from July 1 to $3.72/t which was 2c/t higher than the broker's forecast. The guidance for DPS implies a higher number than the analyst's forecast, leading to an upgrade for FY25-27 by 1-2%.

Add. Target retained at $4.35.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $0.24
If DBI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXI as Hold (3) -

Dexus Industria REIT lifted the FY25 guidance for FFO to 18.1/share from 17.8c/share, higher than Morgans' forecast of 17.9c.

The increase is on account of lower finance costs and higher income from Jandakot Airport operations. The broker upgraded the FFO forecast for FY25 by 1.4% and by 0.5% for FY26.

Hold. Target rises to $2.65 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If DXI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Citi previews Elders’ 1H25 results, which are due out on May 26 (Monday).

The broker notes dry conditions across VIC and SA have continued into 2Q and the company is not expected to be immune from lower sales and margins over the period for AgChem and fertilisers; trends already noted by Dyno Nobel ((DNL)) and Nutrien.

Citi believes this may result in a raised 2H25 earnings skew by management versus expectations and highlights the key question around earnings is whether other areas of the group can offset the southern areas which are so impacted.

Citi forecasts 1H25 earnings before interest and tax of $75m, with consensus at $73m.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $6.59 Difference: $3.16
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.34, suggesting upside of 41.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EQR as Add (1) -

Output at EQ Resources' Mt Carbine mine in Queensland fell in the March quarter due to wet weather, and production at the Barruecopardo tungsten mine was lower after a record December quarter.

Morgans expects the Mt Carbine mine to return to previous mining rates and be cashflow positive, while the other mine is assessed to be cashflow positive at current production.

The broker delayed the production ramp-up at both mines, and accounted for a $19.4m share placement., along with a weaker exchange rate forecast.

Add. Target cut to 10c from 13c.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.061
If EQR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Fortescue has further delayed the production ramp-up at its Iron Bridge magnetite project, pushing nameplate capacity of 22mtpa to FY28 from September this year.

The revised timeline affects shipment expectations and prolongs product quality discounts, highlight the analysts, with guidance now pointing to 10-12mt in FY26 and 16-20mt annualised in H2 of FY27.

Management has implemented redesigns and upgrades to address wear in the dry plant, while maintaining FY25 shipment and cost targets.

Bell Potter notes increased and extended capital expenditure will weigh on earnings and dividend forecasts, with dividends forecast to fall from 100c in 2025 to 71c in 2026 and 65c in 2027.

Confidence in the company’s delivery track record may weaken, suggests the broker, adding a higher risk premium to future projects.

Bell Potter lowers its target price to $15.87 from $16.79 and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $15.87 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue announced updated targets on Iron Bridge and shipment run rates for the next three years, which are below consensus by -23% for FY26 and -9% for 2HFY27, Macquarie highlights.

The company also announced the retirement of Mark Hutchison and Shelley Roberts, with CEO Dino Otranto given a greater remit and Gus Pichot appointed as Growth and Energy CEO.

Macquarie's long-term Iron Bridge forecast stands at 20.4mtpa, which sits below Fortescue's target of 22mtpa by -7%.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -2% for FY25/FY26 and -1% for FY27 due to lower expected production. No change to Neutral rating and $15 target.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Overweight (1) -

Fortescue pushed back the forecast for Iron Bridge project to reach full capacity to FY28 after putting it under review earlier in the year. This compares with Morgan Stanley's forecast for 4Q26 and the consensus forecast for 4Q27.

The company also flagged Iron Bridge shipments of 10-12Mt in FY26, which compares with the broker's 15.2Mt forecast.

The broker estimates the new ramp-up profile will reduce its FY26 EBITDA forecast by -US$82m, and FY27 forecast by -US$185m.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $16.50.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: $0.61
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Buy rating on Fortescue and keeps its target price at $20, despite delays at the Iron Bridge magnetite project and leadership changes.

Ramp-up to nameplate capacity of 22mtpa has been pushed out to FY28. FY26 shipment guidance was lowered to 10-12mt, rising to rising to an annualised rate of 16-20mt H2 of FY27, around -10-15% below consensus, notes the broker.

FY25 shipment and cost guidance remain unchanged.

The company also announced an executive reshuffle, expanding Dino Otranto’s responsibilities and appointing Gus Pichot to lead green energy and growth projects.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: $4.11
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

The latest market update released by Fortescue includes a delay to when Iron Bridge is expected to achieve nameplate capacity, now guided for FY28.

UBS analysts point out they had penciled in FY26. In addition, the announcement included a series of leadership changes.

Earnings forecasts have been modestly trimmed, slicing -1.3% off the broker's price target, now at $15.10.

Target price is $15.10 Current Price is $15.89 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.97, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

HMC Capital abandoned the previously announced plan to close private equity fund CP1 and relaunch it as a listed plus unlisted close-ended fund with redemption options every 5-7 years.

The asset manager raised its performance fee hurdle to 9% from 7% from July 1, and the broker observes the return on CP1 was 6.3% in the last six months.

The broker will be looking to see whether another strategy for private equity will be announced in the near term.

For now, CP1 investors have the up to -30% redemption window open until May 31, after which the -5% cap will be reimposed.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $6.30.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $1.04
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.24, suggesting upside of 56.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the ACCC approval of Insurance Australia Group's acquisition of Royal Automobile Club of Queensland Insurance (RACQI), which is expected to be EPS accretive by around 3%. The analyst notes some 50% of brokers have included the acquisition in estimates.

The ACCC commented that RACQI had been losing market share with issues around higher pricing and reinsurance. Macquarie doesn't believe any of this applies to the proposed acquisition in WA of RACI.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts.

An Outperform rating is maintained, reinforced by the lack of recent weather events in A&NZ and the premium rate cycle "earns through".

Target remains at $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Now the ACCC has given the thumbs up for Insurance Australia Group's acquisition of RACQ Insurance, as expected by UBS, the focus turns to the 25 year distribution agreement and the proposed acquisition of the Royal Automobile Club of WA's insurance arm (RACI).

UBS believes both will be given the green light, but admits the RACI deal will be a closer call given its strong and growing market share and lower geographic CAT exposure.

The latter, as per the broker's commentary, implies lower potential capital risks.

Neutral. Target $9.30. No change to forecasts.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $0.55
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines.

The broker estimates supply deficits by 2040/2050 of -13%/24% of the market for NdPr, -75%/78% for lithium, -16%/34% for cobalt, -17%/25% for nickel and -0.6%/1.5% for copper, respectively. Rare earth price forecasts have been upgraded 

The broker updated its forecasts for Iluka Resources to include financing for the Eneabba refinery, which led to sharp cuts in FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts. Valuation, however, rose on the upgraded price forecasts.

Target price rises to $4.65 from $3.50. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $0.73
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines.

The broker estimates supply deficits by 2040/2050 of -13%/24% of the market for NdPr, -75%/78% for lithium, -16%/34% for cobalt, -17%/25% for nickel and -0.6%/1.5% for copper, respectively. Rare earth price forecasts have been upgraded 

The broker fine-tuned near-term production forecasts for Lynas Rare Earths, and updated its model to reflect the upgraded price forecasts.

Target price rises to $10.00 from $7.10. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.13 Difference: $1.87
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.14, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is no longer confident about Nufarm's business prospects following weak 1H25 results and elevated gearing in an uncertain global environment.

The broker cut the FY25 EBITDA forecast by -16% and FY26 by -11%.

The analyst reckons questions will be asked whether the Seed Technologies review is due to deterioration in the balance sheet or a reflection of weaker prospects for the business.

Equal-weight. Target cut to $2.80 from $3.90.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.17
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NUF as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans notes Nufarm's 1H25 results were below consensus, with a full-year loss now looking likely.

The main disappointment was the underperformance of the Seed Technologies business, and with the company putting it under review, the broker is thinking of various options.

Selling Seed Tech in full or in part may not lead to a good outcome, the broker reckons, as investors will be left with a stake in the lower quality remaining part of the business.

If it doesn't sell, a large and highly dilutive capital raising could become necessary, especially if operating conditions do not improve. The broker lowered FY25-27 EBITDA forecasts by -20%, -19% and -17%, respectively.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Add. Target price cut to $2.78 from $4.53.

Target price is $2.78 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.15
If NUF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests outcomes from an ongoing Fair Work Commission (FWC) work value case may drive nurse wage inflation beyond current agreements.

Management has already agreed to wage increases of up to 16% in NSW and 12.5% in WA, with further negotiations pending in VIC and QLD.

The analysts estimate nurse wages may rise by 4-5% annually through FY28, with additional upward pressure if the FWC approves the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation's (ANMF) proposed 35.8% increase.

Morgan Stanley expects health insurers to bear the cost of higher indexation to fund hospital wage growth, raising industry payout ratios back toward historical levels, which would offset hospital margin expansion rather than lift profitability.

The broker raises its target for Ramsay Health Care to $37.40 from $37.20 and maintains an Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $35.68 Difference: $1.72
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.19, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm is leaving this year and the announcement is seen as a negative surprise by Citi. 

In addition, the company announced two lithium JV deals in Chile with an initial investment totalling -US$1.325bn.

Rio Tinto has been chosen as the preferred bidder to partner with state-owned ENAMI (49%) to develop the Salares Altoandinos Lithium Project with the 51% equity holder to provide -US$425m in cash and non-cash contributions, including its DLE technology.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $130.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $118.88 Difference: $11.12
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $122.25, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto has announced a bauxite production expansion and leadership change.

The new Kangwinan project at the Amrun mine will offset declining output from the ageing Andoom and Gove operations, notes Ord Minnett. Management is aiming to sustain production at 40-50mtpa with first output expected in 2029.

Ord Minnett upgrades its bauxite production forecast to 45mtpa and sees the project as value-accretive, though no changes were made to the analyst's near-term EPS forecasts.

Rio Tinto also announced the planned departure of CEO Jakob Stausholm, with a successor to be named before year-end.

Ord Minnett lifts the target price to $126.00 from $125.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $118.88 Difference: $7.12
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $122.25, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Citi notes March quarter updates from Home Depot and Lowe's point to a resilient retail channel and bode well for the FY26 retail channel outlook for Reliance Worldwide.

However, weakness could still come from the original equipment manufacturer or the wholesale channel, the broker warns.

Buy. Target unchanged at $5.25.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.82
If RWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines.

The broker estimates supply deficits by 2040/2050 of -13%/24% of the market for NdPr, -75%/78% for lithium, -16%/34% for cobalt, -17%/25% for nickel and -0.6%/1.5% for copper, respectively. Rare earth price forecasts have been upgraded 

Underweight. Target price for Sandfire Resources is $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: minus $4.26 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting downside of -1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SHA as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners has initiated coverage of Shape Australia with a Buy rating and target price of $5.

The broker believes the company has a resilient business model, with 40% of projects of less than 4 months duration, which reduces cost blow-outs and delay risks. 

Other positives include its diversification strategy into non-office sectors, new capabilities, and across geographies.

The company started 2H25 with a record contract backlog of $516m, a near-term pipeline of $3.4bn, and $120m net cash. The broker forecasts revenue growth at a compounded 8% rate from FY24 to FY29 to reach $1.17bn.

Near-term catalysts might come from major contract wins in the defence and government programs. The analyst also sees scope for value-accretive acquisitions.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $1.71
If SHA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates STM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiated coverage on Sunstone Metals with a Buy rating and target price of 3c.

The company is developing two gold-copper projects in Ecuador and the broker reckons they could potentially evolve into multi-decade gold-copper mining centres.

The Bramaderos project has a 2.7moz mineral resource and its exploration target Limon is due for a maiden resource over the next 12 months.

El Palmar has an initial mineral resource estimate of 1.2moz gold equivalent and there's an additional exploration target of 10-27moz gold.

The company is actively discussing potential strategic partnerships, which could make it a "situation stock" for corporate catalysts, the report suggests.

The price target is based on the company growing its resource base by 50% over the next 12 months.

Target price is $0.03 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.015
If STM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley believes critical minerals will need a significant increase in supply to meet the fast-growing demand from robotics. One of the challenges in meeting this demand is the rising average lead times for mines.

The broker estimates supply deficits by 2040/2050 of -13%/24% of the market for NdPr, -75%/78% for lithium, -16%/34% for cobalt, -17%/25% for nickel and -0.6%/1.5% for copper, respectively. Rare earth price forecasts have been upgraded 

The broker updated its model for Syrah Resources to account for the Balama restart. Target price rises to 40c from 22c. Equal-weight rating.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.075
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 36.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Ventia Services confirmed net profit after tax growth between 7%–10% for 2025 at the AGM, compared to growth of 12.8% the year earlier, Macquarie explains.

The broker is forecasting 9% growth at the upper end of the range, with a 1H:2H split of 47:53, which aligns with the previous three years and points to a robust start to 2025 from Telstra Group ((TLS)) and NBN contract wins.

The renewal decision for Defence estate management is expected at some stage in 2025 for an extension to end-January 2026. There have been no further updates on ACCC price-fixing allegations, the analyst notes.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates up by 1.7% and 1.4% for 2025/2026 on slightly higher revenues for Defence, Social & Infrastructure, as well as the $100m share buyback.

Outperform retained. Target price lifts to $5 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $0.24
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

The key takeaways for Citi after deeper analysis of Wesfarmers' strategy day were the challenging lithium earnings outlook and Kmart's positioning for customer recovery.

The broker cut EBIT forecasts for FY25-26 by -1% and -3%, respectively.

Sell. Target cut to $60 from $61.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $83.09 Difference: minus $23.09 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

At Wesfarmers' 2025 Strategy Briefing, management concentrated on growth opportunities, notably for Bunnings and Kmart, Macquarie reports.

The company re-confirmed the total addressable market for Bunnings stands at around $110bn versus FY24 sales, which infers around a 17% market share.

An aspirational target of doubling the size of Kmart with sales of $10bn and earnings before interest and tax of $1bn was suggested. Kmart has a low market share of around 8% in a $47bn apparel market and around 2% of a $3.5bn cleaning market.

The Health division is tracking behind management's ambition by circa one to one and a half years but remains positive, with new store formats being trialled.

Target price is lifted 7% to $80 to align with valuations ascribed to peers. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $83.09 Difference: minus $3.09 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Management at Wesfarmers sees the existing core business as having more growth opportunities today than five years ago.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Underweight rating on the company and lifts the target price to $66.70 from $66.00, following the company's investor day update focused on long-term growth initiatives.

Management flagged higher re-investment in core divisions including Bunnings, Kmart and Officeworks, citing better return potential than M&A.

Management guided to FY25 lithium losses of -$60m. FY26 is also set to be a transitional year before break-even, highlighting delays and higher costs in the WesCEF business, note the analysts.

Retail media expansion under “OneReach”, omnichannel investment in Kmart, and technology-driven growth in Officeworks and Health provide optionality, but Wesfarmers' valuation remains stretched relative to peers, suggests Morgan Stanley.

Overall, the broker remains cautious on Bunnings sales growth and lithium execution risk.

Target price is $66.70 Current Price is $83.09 Difference: minus $16.39 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Wesfarmers' annual strategy briefing has seen management reduce guidance for WesCEF (Chemicals, Energy & Fertilisers) but UBS analysts also took with them increased confidence in the strong Bunnings outlook, as well as in growth for Kmart & Officeworks.

Changes made to forecasts are rather small in the bigger scheme of things, but the increased confidence has seen the broker lifting its valuation.

The new price target of $82 compares with $78 prior. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $83.09 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $71.63, suggesting downside of -13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources