Australian Broker Call

Citi rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over RioTinto ((RIO)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The analyst lifts the 29Metals' target price to 55c from 45c as earnings estimates are adjusted for the higher price forecasts.

Neutral, high risk rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.08
If 29M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Outperform (1) -

Following a material weakening of refining margins in the 2Q of 2024, Macquarie lowers its target for Ampol to $37 from $40.35. The Outperform rating is maintained as the share price has already fallen by around -14% since early-April.

Weaker global fuels demand growth, along with the ramp-up of the Dangote mega-refinery is behind the margin weakness, suggests the broker. The broker's forecast refining margin is reduced to US$10.50/bbl versus US$11.80 in Q1.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $33.23 Difference: $3.77
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.60, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ARB as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -

UBS initiates coverage of ARB Corp with a Sell rating.

The broker acknowledges the quality and the strength of the domestic operations but views the upside potential for growth in exports to the US markets as already discounted in the share price.

Domestically, the business is expected to deliver longer term mid-to-single digit earnings growth, the analyst notes.

The market is pricing in double digit revenue growth and margin improvements for export markets, which is viewed as optimistic.

UBS highlights more conservative forecasts for growth in the domestic aftermarket division given vehicle demand is slowing.

Sell rating. $34 target price.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $38.69 Difference: minus $4.69 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.48, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

ASX updated guidance and stressed an ongoing focus on technology replacement within the confines of stakeholder/regulatory engagement, according to the analyst at Citi.

Cost growth was revised to 6% to 9% for FY25 with further increases out to FY27, although the broker highlights higher trading volumes are providing an offset.

The ongoing ASIC investigation remains a key risk for the company, Citi emphasises.

Citi adjusts EPS forecasts by 1% for FY24 and 0.3% for FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target lowered to $61.90 from $65.

Target price is $61.90 Current Price is $58.14 Difference: $3.76
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.43, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

An ever changing expense profile is making consistent delivery of the ASX's return on equity (ROE) target challenging, observes Macquarie.

The broker was commenting after management provided guidance implying underlying opex growth of around 13% in FY25, due to technology licences, equipment costs and D&A.

The analyst sees further downside risk to opex and capex because of ongoing technology consultations.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target falls to $60.50 from $63.00.

Target price is $60.50 Current Price is $58.14 Difference: $2.36
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.43, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley feels quality of earnings has been negatively impacted after the ASX flagged a big step-up in capex for FY25 (a -48% miss against the broker's forecast). Management expects capex to persist at around -$160-180m each year into FY27.

FY24 total cost growth guidance of 15% was in line with the consensus estimate, and better than the 20% forecast by the analysts.

Underweight. The $53.50 target is maintained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $53.50 Current Price is $58.14 Difference: minus $4.64 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $61.43, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett considers shares in the ASX screen as materially undervalued and maintains a $75 target despite management guiding to medium-term expenditure growth.

Medium-term expenditure growth doesn't represent a new baseline, according to Ord Minnett, which expects a return to historical operating margins over time.

Capex guidance for FY25 implies to the broker growth of around 25% from FY24, and management expects capex to remain elevated through FY27.

The Accumulate rating is maintained.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $58.14 Difference: $16.86
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $61.43, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

ASX disappointed the market at the latest Investor update, UBS highlights, with the analyst pointing to lower than expected management guidance in the near-term EBIT margin recovery.

Cost growth from IT upgrade spending also came in higher than forecast for FY25 at 6%-9% and continues to outpace revenue growth into FY25, UBS notes.

The broker accentuates CHESS replacement is just two of seven major projects and believes the actual costs will come in above the updated guidance.

Sell rating retained and target price lowered to $55 from $56.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $58.14 Difference: minus $3.14 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $61.43, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGA as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights a 10% firming in US dollar skim milk powder prices in recent months, the key commodity exposure for Bega Cheese.

After taking into account movements in indicators for the company's branded and bulk businesses, as well as the opening farmgate milk price, the broker raises FY25 and FY26 profit forecasts.

The Buy rating is maintained. The target rises to $5.35 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.97
If BGA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting downside of -0.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Buy (1) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group over RioTinto ((RIO)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

Citi retains a Buy rating and $48.50 target price for BHP Group.

The analyst's earnings forecasts are tweaked for the higher price forecasts.

Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $43.20 Difference: $5.3
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.06, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Only six months post IPO, Brazilian Rare Earths has announced the completion of an institutional placement to issue 24.24m shares to raise $80m.

This follows success of diamond drilling at Monte Alto, explains Ord Minnett, where exploration accelerated and consumed -$8.3m in the first three months of listed life.

Funds will be used to accelerate exploration and development at not only Monte Alto, but also the Sulista and Pele rare earth targets at the Rocha da Rocha project.

Speculative Buy rating and $6.10 target unchanged. The broker believes Brazilian Rare Earths has probably the most exciting rare-earth oxide (REO) project in the world.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $2.85
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CMW as Hold (3) -

Cromwell Property will return to being an A&NZ focused property owner (with a focus on office) and fund manager, notes Morgans, following the exit of the Polish retail portfolio and probable sale of the European funds management business.

After a successful sale of the European business, the broker expects gearing will fall to around 25%, from around 35%.

Gearing already fell to 35% from 45% (at December 2023) following the Polish sale. Proceeds from the sale of $465m were in line with 1H valuations, notes the analyst.

The Hold rating and 46c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.46 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.045
If CMW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Deterra Royalties has announced an all-cash offer for AIM-listed Trident Royalties plc at 49p per share, valuing the deal at GBP144m or $276m and using $500m undrawn facilities, notes Citi.

The broker highlights Deterra Royalties will pay out 100% of FY24 net profits as dividends, then target a 50% payout ratio.

Citi stresses the earnings impact is unclear, with Trident's projected 2026 pretax revenue of around US$23m suggesting a circa 9% post-tax return before operating expenses.

The broker suggests the reduced dividend payout may disappoint Deterra Royalties shareholders, and Trident's significant lithium exposure could concern some investors.

The acquisition is subject to shareholder approvals, with implementation expected in 2H 2024. Neutral rating and $5.20 target retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.74
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EBO as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett doesn't believe Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) can overcome the ACCC's concerns around its proposed "merger" with Chemist Warehouse, which would be a positive outcome for Ebos Group from a competition standpoint.

The broker points out Sigma is currently incentivised to maximise wholesale sales. This may change after a merger because existing sales to independent pharmacies may be compromised as they are competitors to Chemist Warehouse, explains the analyst.

The $28.50 target and Hold rating are kept intact for Ebos Group.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $30.06 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If EBO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.68, suggesting upside of 18.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Buy (1) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over RioTinto ((RIO)) and Evolution Mining over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts for the higher price estimates and lifts the target price on Evolution Mining to $4.50 from $4.40.

Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.79
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Buy (1) -

Weather impacts and seismic activity at Red Lake have resulted in a -4% cut in FY24 production guidance from Evolution Mining, UBS notes.

As a result the broker revises the all-in sustaining cost (AISC) higher to $1,440/oz, in line with recent guidance.

Despite the production cut, the broker points out the company's cash generation remains strong, with $185m generated pre-dividend in April-May. The analyst forecasts free cash flow generation to remain robust on the back of higher gold prices.

The broker is looking for more insights into medium-term production plans and capex requirements at the upcoming site visits to Cowal and Northparkes.

UBS lowers the price target to $4.45 from $4.60, while retaining a Buy rating.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $3.71 Difference: $0.74
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi adds Goodman Group to the broker's Pan-Asia Focus List given strong medium term growth prospects on the back of data centre and warehouse developments.

Citi estimates around 90% of the group's 4.3GW of global power bank across 12 cities come from brownfield conversions of existing warehouses and other assets helping to underpin double-digit medium term earnings growth.

Comparing Goodman Group to overseas peers, Prologis and Segro, Citi believes the premium rating is justified given the higher expected earnings growth.

The stock is also more fairly valued in comparison to NextDC ((NXT)) and Megaport ((MP1)) states the analyst.

Buy rating and $40 target price.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.53 Difference: $4.47
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HAS as Hold (3) -

While Hastings Technology Metals announced a -$29m reduction in capex estimate at Yangibana, Ord Minnett remains cautious as almost 90% of the reduction was delivered by reducing the contingency to $27m from $52m.

Management noted this approach was warranted as the detailed engineering and design works have improved the clarity around the scope of works, yet the broker feels it is just a reduction of the safety buffer.

Hold rating and the target rises to 28c from 27c. The broker highlights its valuation is extremely sensitive to small changes in estimates and Hastings Technology Metals remains a high-cost, higher-risk stock.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.025
If HAS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie spies an opportunity to buy shares in Jumbo Interactive, which have underperformed the ASX300 by -10% since 1H
results. Consensus earnings upgrades are expected given recent Australian lotteries jackpot activity.

The Neutral rating is maintained and the target increased to $17.45 from $17.15.

Forecasting both Powerball and Oz Lotto jackpot through June, the broker anticipates volume growth at around 15% in FY24 (up from 10%), which implies 40% 2H growth. It's expected this growth will support digital penetration.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $15.95 Difference: $1.5
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.64, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

The scoping study for the resource at Capao do Mel is due for imminent release, which Bell Potter suggests will be a major positive catalyst for the share price of Meteoric Resources.

The updated resource for the entire Caldeira Rare Earths project increases to 619mt at 2,538ppm total rare earth oxide (TREO) after Meteoric Resources released the revised resource estimate for Capao do Mel.

The Speculative Buy rating and 50c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.335
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 203% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MRM as Hold (3) -

Following a better-than-expected 2H performance, notes Bell Potter, MMA Offshore has released updated FY24 guidance.

Underlying EBITDA and EBIT are expected to be in the range of $146-149m and $96-99m, respectively, compared to the broker's forecasts for $138.2m and $87.2m.

In the absence of a better proposal, the MMA board has reiterated its unanimous support for the $2.60/share bid from Singapore-based Cyan Renewables.

The Hold rating and target price of $2.60 are retained.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If MRM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MRM as Buy (1) -

Citi views the trading update from MMA Offshore as better than expected with management upgrading FY24 EBITDA guidance to $146-$149m from $136-142m due to favourable market conditions.

The improvement is also based on cost sharing with a customer and improved project execution, the broker highlights.

Citi believes investors should push for a higher bid price with more leverage around an improved earnings outlook.

The analyst lifts earnings estimates by 6% for FY24 and adjust FY25 higher.

Buy rating and $3 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.32
If MRM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NSR as Underweight (5) -

National Storage REIT has entered into binding agreements with GIC to establish the National Storage Ventures Fund to pursue development and operation of self-storage centres across Australia.

The joint venture (25:75 National Storage:GIC) will be seeded by a portfolio of 10 assets from National Storage's portfolio and the REIT will receive around $120m when the deal closes in September this year.

Morgan Stanley likes the deal, explaining that National Storage will earn additional income by using its existing skill set, going a touch more capital light, and potentially accelerating its development pipeline.

Underweight and $2.35 target retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.30 Difference: $0.05
If NSR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi considers the recent fall in Paladin Energy shares in line with decline in the uranium price (U3O8) as offering a good entry point for the stock.

Coverage of the company is transferred to a new analyst who reiterates the Buy rating and $17 target price with the Citi commodity team re-confirming the upbeat view on the U3O8 price into the 2H2024.

Post accounting for slightly lower production estimates of 4.2mlb of U3O8 in FY25 for the company, the broker lowers EBITDA forecasts by -14% in FY25.

Target price $17. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $14.11 Difference: $2.89
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.31, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The broker retains a $137 target price and a Neutral rating.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted for the higher price estimates.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $120.62 Difference: $16.38
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.08, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over RioTinto ((RIO)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

The broker lifts EBITDA forecasts for South32 by 42% in FY25 due to the higher price estimate and higher aluminum, alumina and silver prices.

The target is raised to $4 from $3.65 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.36
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates S32 as Buy (1) -

UBS has adjusted earnings forecasts for South32 post accounting for higher commodity prices, particularly in silver, manganese, and alumina.

Accordingly, EPS estimates are lifted between 13% to 34% for FY24 to FY26.

The broker notes the price increases provide a strong tailwind to earnings and free cash flow, allowing for a potential share buyback following the financial close of the IMC divestment and a US$1.05bn upfront payment.

Buy rating unchanged and the target price is lifted to $4.15 from $3.90 to reflect the earnings upgrades.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.51
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

The Citi global commodity team has upgraded copper forecasts to US$12,000/t from US$10,000/t as a result of a higher degree of certainty around the demand from the energy transition.

The broker is now US$2,000/t above market consensus.

Citi prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) over RioTinto ((RIO)) and Evolution Mining ((EVN)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).

Sandfire Resources is viewed by the broker as a "clean beta" play on the Cu price and EBITDA earnings are raised by 20% for FY25 to FY27.

Sandfire Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Sell, but Citi sees potential for revisiting the rating fs the share price consolidates or pulls back further on price movements.

The target price lifted to $8.90 from $7.90.

Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $8.65 Difference: $0.25
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.53, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SIG as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the statement issued by the ACCC regarding the proposed "merger" between Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse, with five concerns raised.

The analyst outlines the concerns around potential barriers to market entry, competition reduction in pharmacy retailing, concerns over data access, and supplier foreclosure. 

A decision from the ACCC is expected on September 4, with a possible extension if remediation measures are needed.

The broker believes the issues can be addressed but the process may be delayed. $1.30 target and Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.14
If SIG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Of the five concerns raised by the ACCC around the "merger" between Sigma Healthcare and Chemist Warehouse, Macquarie believes the structural change (raising barriers to entry) will be the most challenging to address.

The broker suggests the current risk/reward ratio of a positive outcome is too positively skewed, given increasing prospects of an altered deal.

The Underperform rating and 90c target are unchanged.

The ACCC expects to provide a decision on the proposed transaction on September 5.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SIG as Hold (3) -

Morgans believes Sigma Healthcare will be able to address all issues raised by the ACCC regarding the proposed "merger" with Chemist Warehouse. 

The broker remains confident the deal will go through and complete in January 2025.

The Hold rating and $1.14 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.14 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett doesn't believe Sigma Healthcare can overcome the ACCC's concerns (released yesterday) around its proposed "merger" with Chemist Warehouse.

The broker points out Sigma is currently incentivised to maximise wholesale sales. This may change after a merger because existing sales to independent pharmacies may be compromised as they are competitors to Chemist Warehouse, explains the analyst.

The Sell rating and 78c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: minus $0.38 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.06, suggesting downside of -8.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SVW as Buy (1) -

As the Boral ((BLD)) acquisition is nearing completion, Bell Potter now adjusts its Seven Group valuation. The target rises to $45 from $44.30 and the Buy rating is maintained.

The broker points out Seven Group's businesses and investments are market leaders in their respective industries, with scale, brand and industry expertise underpinning hard-to-replicate commercial advantages.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $39.56 Difference: $5.44
If SVW meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $39.70, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades its rating for Lottery Corp to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $5.50 from $5.25 due to "robust" forecast growth and a currently low valuation. Potential also exists for a re-rating from moderating bond yields, explains the analyst.

Assuming both Powerball and Oz Lotto jackpot perform through June, the broker anticipates volume growth at around 15% in FY24 (up from 10%), which implies 40% 2H growth. It's expected this growth will support digital penetration.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $0.37
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter upgrades its rating for Telix Pharmaceuticals to Buy from Hold on valuation. It's thought the current share price presents an opportunity to buy the stock ahead of positive 2H news flow, which may include FDA approvals for Zircaix and Pixclara.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts nor the $19 target.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.46 Difference: $2.54
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Following a material weakening of refining margins in the 2Q of 2024, Macquarie lowers its target for Viva Energy to $4.40 from $4.70. The Outperform rating is maintained as the share price has already fallen by around -20% since early-April.

Weaker global fuels demand growth, along with the ramp-up of the Dangote mega-refinery is behind the margin weakness, suggests the broker. 

The broker's forecast for Viva Energy's refining margin is reduced to US$9.50/bbl versus US$12 in Q1.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $1.13
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.81, suggesting upside of 18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources