Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A2M as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie provides an update on a2 Milk Co ahead of the FY22 earnings report.

In response to estimated input cost increases of 20-30% in the last year, a2 Milk Co has increased the recommended retail price by 7-13%, notes Macquarie, and repackaged the English Label which is expected to assist with sales and distribution for the China market.

Falling births in China, down -30% since 2019, are anticipated to have a lagged effect on the infant formula market.

Macquarie highlights the ongoing risks to earnings from competition, falling demand from lower birth rates and considers the stock to be fully valued around 26x FY23 earnings.

The Underperform rating is retained and the target price is $4.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.05, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AD8 as Overweight (1) -

Preliminary FY22 revenue for Audinate Group was a material beat compared to the forecast by Morgan Stanley and consensus, while earnings (EBITA) were considered another key positive.

The analyst feels the result materially de-risks FY23 forecasts, which previously looked a stretch.

The broker retains its Overweight rating and $9.00 target and awaits more details during the reporting season. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AD8 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Audinate Group enjoyed better-than-anticipated chip supply late in the June-quarter and this has made for a strong finish to FY22, comments UBS.

The broker wants to catch up with company management to obtain more insights into specifics, such as: how much revenue has been pulled forward?

For now, the broker maintains lots of uncertainties remain on the horizon, and management at the company is not too bullish about it either.

Forecasts have been left unchanged while awaiting the FY22 financials, scheduled for August 22. Target $9.85. Buy.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $9.10 Difference: $0.75
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AIM as Add (1) -

Ai-Media Technologies's 4Q results were broadly in-line with Morgans expectations, and showed a return to revenue growth.

While forecasts are relatively unchanged, the target falls to $0.755 from $1.09 on lower peer multiples, a lower growth outlook and a higher assumption for weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

The broker estimates a compelling free cash flow yield for FY23 and retains its Add rating.

Target price is $0.76 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.415
If AIM meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals reported the 4Q22 trading update with gold production -2% below expectations and costs 18% above estimates, highlights Macquarie.

Peak and Hera had a difficult quarter with workforce problems and higher inflation.

The analyst assessed forecasts with earnings adjusted marginally by -3% in FY22 and 4% for FY23. FY23 production guidance from the company is expected in the September quarter.

Macquarie remains positive on the future of the Federation project with the feasibility study and reserve and resource update due in 1Q23.

An Outperform rating is maintained with a $0.40 price target.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.14
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AND as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

At 4Q trading update, Ansarada Group guided to a “positive outlook for FY23, with Q1 underpinned by contracted revenue and solid pipeline”. Morgans assesses a strong end to the year, which was broadly in-line with forecasts.

The broker upgrades its rating for the company to Add from Hold as there is now more than 10% upside to the new $1.85 target price, down from $2.03. The target was lowered on lower peer multiples and lower medium-term free cash flow.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.65 Difference: $0.2
If AND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has used a general sector update to lower its price target for Eagers Automotive, now at $12.90 versus $17.50 previously.

The broker's rating has been downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

UBS has taken the prognosis on board that new car sales will drop -15% peak-to-trough on the expectation that house prices will drop -10% and the historical correlation between the two remains intact.

Target price is $12.90 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $0.59
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a commendable 4Q/FY22 performance by Airtasker in the face of multiple headwinds. These included record low employment/labour scarcity impacting marketplace supply, and inclement weather lowering marketplace activity in some regions.

The broker highlights International gross marketplace volume (GMV) rose 12% on the previous corresponding period. Management pointed to several cost-out initiatives to drive sustained positive cashflow.

The Add rating is unchanged, while the target falls to $1.05 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.67
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update to lower its price target for Autosports Group, now at $2.90 versus $3.29 previously.

Buy rating retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $1.05
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Alumina Ltd come from movement in the alumina price and changes to future production for AWAC.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

A Neutral rating and $1.50 price target are retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $0
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update to lower its price target for Bapcor, now at $7.60 versus $7.90 previously.

Buy rating remains unchanged.

UBS has taken the prognosis on board that new car sales will drop -15% peak-to-trough on the expectation that house prices will drop -10% and the historical correlation between the two remains intact.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $1.05
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.81, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets, with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie prefers BHP Group and South32 ((S32)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).

The broker highlights the key risks to BHP Group's earnings come from the upside and downside movement in the iron ore, copper and coal prices.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to $48 from $50.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $38.32 Difference: $9.68
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $42.36, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

The 4Q22 report from Boss Energy revealed the company has approved the final investment decision for the $113m restart of the Honeymoon Uranium Project, highlights Macquarie.

The company is aiming to start production in the fourth quarter of 2023 and increase production to 2.45mlb of uranium oxide over 3 years.

Inventories valued at $85m and cash of $113m provides a solid funding base given the long lead times to production.

Macquarie is positive about the outlook and believes the higher uranium prices support the market.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price is $2.60.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $0.36
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Outperform (1) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

As far as Carsales is concerned, among the observations made is that dealer enquiries remain rather resilient and consistent.

Outperform rating retained for Carsales. Estimates have been lowered. Target lifts by $1 to $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $20.40 Difference: $1.6
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.98, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CGF as Equal-weight (3) -

In a review of Australian wealth managers, Morgan Stanley points out higher interest rates support earnings growth for Challenger though volatility and capital intensity remain high.

The broker lifts its target to $6.70 from $6.40 as the benefit of higher rates and spreads in Life more than offsets lower Fund Manager earnings. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.96 Difference: minus $0.26 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.19, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

Chalice Mining reported 4Q22 results with a positive update for Gonneville and a new discovery at Dampier which is viewed optimistically by Macquarie.

The company has cash of $131.7m and remains well funded for the continuation of exploration and pre-development over the next 18-months.

A scoping study for the updated Mineral Resources estimate is anticipated in the next two months, Macquarie notes.

Target price remains at $7.50. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.73 Difference: $2.77
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Higher costs and lower achieved prices meant Champion Iron's June-quarterly update missed Citi's expectations. While unit costs seem poised to drop, as Phase 2 start-up pushes up the fixed-cost base, the broker nevertheless has now incorporated higher costs in its modeling.

Citi's in-house price forecasts for iron ore have been reset -11% lower to US$132/t for 2022, with the average for 2023 sitting at US$111/t. Add-in higher costs and forecasts have been reduced.

Target price tumbles to $7.80 from $9. Buy.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $3.02
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assess the first quarter 2023 results of Champion Iron as disappointing with higher costs from inflation and lower production from shutdowns weighing on the numbers.

The broker points out the cash costs were 20% higher than anticipated, revenues were -11% below forecasts and -16% on the previous quarter. The hit to earnings was higher due to lower volumes and higher costs (inflation and the Phase 2 ramp of Bloom Lake)

Accounting for the weaker first quarter result, Macquarie reduces FY23 earnings forecasts by -13%.

An Outperform rating is retained and the price target is $6.00.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $1.22
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Globally, healthcare staff shortages have continued to impact the recovery of surgical volumes following covid disruptions in 2020-21.

The Credit Suisse monthly hospital survey suggests sluggish US surgical volume growth in recent months for both inpatient and outpatient surgeries.

Given hospital staffing constraints are impacting surgeries globally, the broker has lowered its cochlear implant sales forecast by -6% in FY23, not expecting any significant change in the operating environment in 1H23 relative to 2H22.

Credit Suisse downgrades Cochlear to Neutral from Outperform and cuts its target to $232 from $240.

Target price is $232.00 Current Price is $215.54 Difference: $16.46
If COH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $220.08, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Coronado Global Resources come from movements in the met coal prices.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

Outperform and $2.50 price target are retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $1.05
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.53, suggesting upside of 79.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reviews three CSL competitor results.

The broker conludes the threat to immunoglobulin (Ig) posed by Vyvgart - produced by Dutch company Argenx - is manageable, while results from Takeda point to a plasma industry turnaround, and robust growth outlook for Ig.

Takeda maintains an expectation for Ig portfolio underlying growth in FY22 of 10-20%. The broker expects CSL's Ig growth to be below that of Takeda in FY22.

Meanwhile, Grifols showed a return to above pandemic levels of collections, which is broadly consistent with the analyst's expectation for CSL's collection recovery.

The Overweight rating and $312 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $312.00 Current Price is $291.40 Difference: $20.6
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $318.72, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CTD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviewed the earnings forecasts for Corporate Travel Management in light of the recent market trends.

Demand for corporate travels remains firm currently but the analysts highlight risks from macro headwinds including higher airfares, and capacity cuts to improve service from the airlines, 

Macquarie concludes Corporate Travel Management is in a relatively good position as they have good exposure to economically resilient clients in the government, healthcare and mining sectors.

Earnings forecasts remain unchanged in FY22 but decline by -17% in FY23. The Outperform rating is retained and the target price is $20.80.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $19.01 Difference: $1.79
If CTD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

For Domain Holdings Australia, Macquarie is concerned about listings volumes as housing markets weaken.

Neutral rating retained. Only minor downgrades have been made to forecasts. Target $2.70.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.8 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 36.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Deterra Royalties come from movements in the iron ore prices.

Outperform rating retained. Target price is $5.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.63
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ELO as Overweight (1) -

Following a FY22 update, Morgan Stanley points out Elmo Software has responded to market concerns around cash burn, at the expense of revenue growth.

Earnings (EBITDA) of $7.1m beat guidance for $1.5-6.5m, while the closing $47.9m cash balance positively surprised the analyst. After taking into account management's FY23 outlook guidance, a $40m balance is estimated at FY23 versus $23m previously.

Management guided to $134-140m of annual recurring revenue (ARR), a 28% rise year-on-year at the midpoint. The Overweight rating and $3.50 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.75
If ELO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FCL as Outperform (1) -

Fineos Corp provided updated cash receipts for 2H22 and a FY22 guidance update.

Macquarie explains the FY22 cash receipts were 106% of its FY22 revenue forecast with the 2H22 at 115% of the FY22 revenue estimate.

The company's growth is being driven by existing clients with no new client acquisitions announced.

Macquarie highlighted the term "at the lower end" was removed from the FY22 revenue guidance of EUR125m to EUR130m, indicating 17.7% growth and subscription guidance of 30%.

Adjusting for a lower valuation multiple, the currency and the lack of new client wins, the broker reduces the 12 month price target to $2.37 from $2.89.

The Outperform rating is retained.

Target price is $2.37 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.6
If FCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FLT as Neutral (3) -

Following on from higher demand and ticket prices, Flight Centre Travel upgraded earnings guidance for FY22, with lower losses of -$180-$190m from -$195m to -$225m, explains Macquarie.

Of note, the corporate business is increasing market share and the leisure operations are continuing to see strength.

The broker highlights other details provided were limited and the analyst remains cautious about the rising macro-economic risks of slowing demand.

The updated forecasts assume a recovery in earnings to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels and earnings estimates are adjusted by 4% for FY22 and -19% for FY23.

A Neutral rating is maintained and the target price is $18.00.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.07 Difference: $0.93
If FLT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.50, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

The good news, Citi implies, is that June-quarter production was strong and while costs did rise, Fortescue Metals managed to keep costs rising at a slower pace than the competition.

That said, the analysts add, there was also a substantial increase in capex guidance. In-house adjustments to forecasts have average iron ore price -11% to US$132/t, with 2023 sitting at US$111/t.

Earnings estimates have thus been lowered. Target has dropped to $18.40 from $19. Neutral.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Fortescue Metals' June quarter shipments beat Credit Suisse by 4%, however volume upside was offset by higher opex and capex costs. June quarter capex came in at US$800m, -27% below the broker, suggesting a delay in capex spending into FY23.

FY23 guidance is for higher shipments but also higher, inflation-driven costs.

Credit Suisse believes, on current iron ore spot pricing, Future Industries spending will need to be severely curtailed within four years or the 10% profit allocation will be exceeded.

In the broker's view, this points to a very restrictive timeline for achieving quantifiable projects. Neutral and $17 target retained.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: minus $1.7 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie viewed the 4Q22 results update from Fortescue Metals as solid across the board with volumes, costs and prices coming in within expectations. Capital expenditure guidance was noticeably higher than anticipated.

Accounting for the adjustment in capital expenditure guidance of US$2.7bn to US$3.1bn and higher unit costs, Macquarie reduces the estimated free cash flow forecast by -25% in FY23.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted for a -15% decline in free cash flow each year in the medium term and FY23 earnings estimates are reduced by -5%.

Macquarie's earnings forecasts are -3% lower than FY22 Bloomberg consensus and -16% below FY23 and the broker points out the estimates could be too low with higher iron ore spot prices.

Macquarie downgrades the stock to Underperform from Neutral and the price target is lowered by -11% to $16.00.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: minus $2.7 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

FY22 shipments for Fortescue Metals were above the upper end of guidance, though in-line with Morgan Stanley's prediction, while costs were in-line with guidance. Fourth quarter price realisation was a -1% miss versus the analyst's expectation.

While FY23 guidance was raised for shipments, guidance for costs and capex increased and the broker retains its Underweight rating and $14.20 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.20 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: minus $4.5 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Morgans suggests gains in the Fortescue Metals share price after the release of 4Q results were due to a slight beat over guidance and strong future shipment expectations for FY23.

The Hold rating is maintained, as the broker feels shares are trading around fair value, while the target eases to $17.40 from $17.90.

Increased price realisation versus the benchmark lead to higher average revenue, explains the analyst, while inflationary pressures pushed FY23 net direct cash costs (C1) guidance substantially higher compared to FY22.

Target price is $17.40 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Following Fortescue Metals' 4Q production report, Ord Minnett maintains its Hold rating and continues to see risk to iron ore demand and prices from weakness in China's property sector.

The result is described as "mixed" by the analyst with very strong shipments, a beat on costs, and FY23 production guidance was ahead of expectation. FY22 results are due on August 29. The broker raises its target to $19 from $18.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $18.70 Difference: $0.3
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.86, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -

Gold Road Resources provided a pleasing June quarter result for Macquarie with costs coming in some -12% below expectations and gold production was 10% higher than forecast.

Gruyere (50% owned) reported a beat on both production and costs.

Including the latest production and cost updates, Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by 3% for FY22 and guidance remains at 300-340koz placing the company in a good position for the second half of 2022, suggests the broker.

Outperform rating and the target price is raised 7% to $1.60.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.26
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett assesses a strong 2Q result for Gold Road Resources as costs were an 8% beat largely on lower capitalised stripping and reduced expenditure. It's felt the company is better placed than peers in the current inflationary backdrop.

The broker expects the stock to gain momentum on delivery of the Gruyere gold mine (ramp-up issues potentially extinguished) and continued free cash flow generation. The Buy rating and $1.70 target are retained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: $0.36
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GUD as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has used a general sector update to lower its price target for G.U.D. Holdings, now at $9.10 versus $13.30 previously.

The rating for G.U.D. Holdings has been downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

UBS has taken the prognosis on board that new car sales will drop -15% peak-to-trough on the expectation that house prices will drop -10% and the historical correlation between the two remains intact.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.67 Difference: $0.43
If GUD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.93, suggesting upside of 35.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

Hastings Technology Metals released its 4Q22 report, revealing a very busy quarter and some positive updates according to Macquarie.

The company is acquiring the 30% of Yangibana it doesn't already own and the updated resource estimate is due to be released in the second half of 2022.

Macquarie points out the latest drilling results showed further rare-earth mineralisation and Hastings Technology Metals is in discussion with potential European partners for possible processing facilities in Europe.

Construction of the plant at Yangibana is due to start in the last quarter of 2022 and the construction of the hydromet plant in Onslow is due in the first quarter of 2023.

Outperform rating is retained with a $6.30 price target.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $2.2
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HT1 as Upgrade to Neutral from Outperform (1) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

HT&E's FY22 result is anticipated to beat market consensus in August. Outperform rating retained. Amidst cuts to forecasts across the sector, estimates for HT&E have been left untouched.

Price target has declined to $1.40 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.31 Difference: $0.09
If HT1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IDX as Neutral (3) -

Integral Diagnostics has pre-released its FY22 numbers, showing revenue, earnings and operational profit all below Credit Suisse's forecasts.

Management blamed lower volumes due to restrictions on elective surgeries, reluctance of some patients to attend practices due to covid and/or flu risks, and additional costs as a result of covid-related absenteeism, general high inflation and supply chain disruption.

While a positive share price move yesterday suggests the market believes this is as bad as it will get, Credit Suisse remains cautious.  Target falls to $3.15 from $4.11, Neutral retained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: $0.12
If IDX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.26, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IEL as Initiation of coverage with Accumulate (2) -

Longer-term multiples for IDP Education’s valuation are currently in-line with pre-covid averages, and Ord Minnett believes the past two years of operational and process improvements are not being allowed for in the company’s share price. 

These improvements, for the provider of international student placement services in A&NZ, the US, UK, Ireland and Canada, include IDP Connect, IDP Live and digital testing initiatives. The latter are designed to improve efficiency across student placements (SP) and IELTs testing.

IELTs stands for International English Language testing system. The broker initiates coverage with an Overweight rating and $30.50 target price. 

Positives for the stock include higher quality placements from the digital initiatives, and the scale and opportunity provided by the July 2021 acquisition of the British Council’s IELTs India operations, where synergy benefits are ongoing.

The company is not immune to the impacts of inflation via employee costs, cautions the analyst, though these are mitigated by the majority of job openings being Indian-based. Australian SP is the only part of the business not forecast to return to pre-covid levels due to visa processing delays.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $27.44 Difference: $3.06
If IEL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.24, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -

In a review of Australian wealth managers, Morgan Stanley lowers its forecasts for Insignia Financial on lower funds under management and administration (FUMA) forecasts and a loss of wealth advisers. The target falls to $3.90 from $5.60. Industry view: Attractive.

The Overweight rating is kept as the broker likes the company's leading scale, in an industry that is recovering from disruption. It's felt the risk/reward proposition is attractive, despite ongoing margin pressure (which is largely factored-into the share price).

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.89
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IGO as Lighten (4) -

IGO's 4Q update confirmed Ord Minnett's negative investment thesis of asset maturity and project execution risk (Kwinana) and the Lighten rating is maintained. Despite a robust quarter, the outlook is considered weak and the target falls to $8.40 from $8.80.

Costs at Nova lifted materially, but still generated cash of $209m, while Greenbushes was mixed though yielded a $72m dividend, explains the analyst.

First production at Cosmos (Western Area acquisition) was delayed by three months.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $10.68 Difference: minus $2.28 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.60, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Buy (1) -

For UBS's initial response to IGO's June-quarterly update, see yesterday's Report.

Upon further consideration, the price target has lost -5c, now at $12.70. Buy.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $10.68 Difference: $2.02
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.60, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Iluka Resources come from movements in the zircon and rutile prices as well as updates on de-merger of Sierra Rutile and the Wimmera pre-feasibility study.

Target price of  $14.50 and Outperform retained.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $9.59 Difference: $4.91
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.67, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPD as Speculative Buy (1) -

Impedimed's 4Q cash flow result was in-line with Morgans expectations. Momentum for private payors (a driver of future revenue growth) is considered to be building.

Management noted there is sufficient funding to achieve breakeven, which the broker pushes out to FY25 from FY24.

While no changes are made to forecasts, revenue-per-device assumptions are lowered for FY23/24 and the target falls to $0.195 from $0.245. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.125
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHG as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Underlying, comment Citi analysts, the Q2 flows for Janus Henderson look even worse than expected. The broker concludes any new strategy will require time before generating concrete impact.

Forecasts have been further trimmed. Price target drops to $31.60 from $33.90. Downgrade to Sell from Neutral.

Janus Henderson, exclaims the broker, is strongly leveraged to any potential rebound in financial markets. In the absence of such rebound, it seems shareholders may need to be very patient, suggests Citi.

Target price is $31.60 Current Price is $34.55 Difference: minus $2.95 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.43, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -

Janus Henderson's 2Q EPS missed the consensus forecast and Morgan Stanley's estimate by -3% and -4%, respectively. It's felt the cost outlook and lower assets under management (AUM) will result in downgrades to the consensus forecast.

Management expects near-term pressure on flows and feels the group needs to increase its market share of flows.

The broker points out the FY22 cost outlook falls on lower variable costs and reduced marketing spend, and is being supported by favourable foreign exchange rates. The Equal-weight rating and $34.10 target are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $34.10 Current Price is $34.55 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.43, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Jupiter Mines come from movements in the manganese price.

The Outperform rating and target price of $0.30 are retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.1
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in February.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates KAR as Add (1) -

Karoon Energy's 4Q results were strong, according to Morgans, and FY22 oil production beat the broker's and the consensus estimate. An impressive 4Q result from the Bauna operation in offshore Brazil was highlighted.

While management cut FY22 production cost guidance, the analyst cautions cost pressures will now likely increase, as for peers.

The broker feels the market is overstating execution risk on the Bauna intervention program and Patolla development and retains an Add rating. The target rises to $3.20 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $1.32
If KAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.63, suggesting upside of 40.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates KGN as Underperform (5) -

Despite an enthusiastic market reaction to Kogan's trading update, Credit Suisse believes the business faces numerous headwinds, with Kogan Marketplace appearing to cede market share in the half, and sales revenue in Exclusive and Third Party brands continuing to fall.

A reduced inventory and higher net cash position at FY22 would thus appear to derive from a reduction in goods inwards, rather than improvement in sales revenue, the broker suggests.

The broker retains an Underperform rating because the marketplace sector is becoming increasingly competitive leading to pressures on web traffic and upward pressure on marketing expenditure for the industry. Target falls to $3.44 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Kogan's market update has UBS worried about what the future might have in store, despite what yesterday's share price response might indicate (you don't see a rally of 50% on the day every day on the ASX).

Kogan decided to hold back on opex (operational spending) which might have benefited the bottom line at face value, but UBS sees weak underlying dynamics, and consumer spending has yet to slow down dramatically one hears the analysts thinking.

Forecasts have been cut, at the top-line, but bottom line estimates have gone up which also pushes up the price target to $3.15 from $2.90. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KLL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out significant risks to forecasts for Kalium Lakes come from movements in commodity prices.

The Neutral rating is retained alongside a $0.08 price target.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.02
If KLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Mount Gibson Iron come from movements in the iron ore price.

Outperform rating with a $0.70 target price.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.16
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Post June-quarter update, Citi remains Buy-rated on Mineral Resources but this is based on its own preference for exposure to iron ore rather than to base metals, on a 6-9 months view, plus belief that the price of lithium shall remain higher-for-longer.

Management at the company is yet to provide guidance for FY23 and Citi expects them to do so with the FY22 release in August.

Target price remains $73. Earnings estimates have received a genuine boost, as have DPS forecasts.

Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $53.21 Difference: $19.79
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.34, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Mineral Resources' June quarter operational performance was marginally soft, Credit Suisse suggests, offset by buoyant lithium prices.

Mining Services volumes were -20% below forecast and slightly under-delivered against FY guidance. Iron ore volume was broadly in line but price realisation was below forecast.

Credit Suisse has cut its December half iron ore price forecast to US$110/t from US$145/t, offset by a 35% increase on hydroxide price forecast in FY23 to better reflect the buoyant lithium market in China and to incorporate the 13% VAT.

Outperform and $71 target retained.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $53.21 Difference: $17.79
If MIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.34, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Mineral Resources come from movements in the spot iron ore and spodumene prices with costs (operating and capital) for projects not operating (Wodgina, Ashburton and Kemerton) in the earnings estimates.

An Outperform rating and $85.00 price target.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $53.21 Difference: $31.79
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.34, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

While Morgan Stanley assesses weaker 4Q numbers, it appears a $215m earnings (EBITDA) windfall from toll treating at Mt Marion was not in consensus forecasts, and should impact positively.

The broker believes the stock price is cheap and retains its Overweight rating and $66.70 target price. Industry view: Attractive.

Iron ore production was a miss versus the analyst's forecast, while production at Mt Marion was -10% below expectation during the 4Q, as the company battled covid absenteeism and some operational difficulties.

Target price is $66.70 Current Price is $53.21 Difference: $13.49
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.34, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Highlights of Mineral Resources' June-quarter update included first lithium hydroxide production and higher-than-forecast iron ore shipments, comment analysts at UBS.

The company did receive a lower-than-estimated price for its iron ore and that's pretty much responsible for UBS pulling back its price target to $71 (down -$1).

The future holds a lot of moving parts, says UBS, and the analysts are in waiting mode. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $53.21 Difference: $17.79
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $73.34, suggesting upside of 35.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MPL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett sees short-to medium-term benefits from covid for the Private Health Insurance sector and prefers Medibank Private over nib Holdings on valuation and a stronger capital position. There's also estimated to be less need for give-backs.

For both companies, claims continue to emerge favourably and below trend on hospital and ancillary, which provides certainty on margins for the next two years, explains the analyst.

The broker raises its target price for Medibank Private to $3.68 from $3.50 and maintains an Accumulate rating.

Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.44 Difference: $0.24
If MPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.58, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie Group's AGM update proved yet another upside surprise with Citi commenting this reflects the delayed revenue benefit of the buoyant trading conditions experienced during 2H FY22.

But now rising rates are seeing financial conditions tighten significantly and Citi sees a challenge for the second half. The suggestion is that if overall market volatility and commodity dislocations don't extend for longer, risks to the outlook increase.

Citi retains its Neutral rating with a $172 price target, down from $187 prior.

Target price is $172.00 Current Price is $178.89 Difference: minus $6.89 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $192.83, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MQG as Overweight (1) -

Following an 1Q update by Macquarie Group, Morgan Stanley is more confident FY23 forecasts wil be either met or exceeded. The quarter was expected to be down, but gains on asset sales and commodities were better than expected.

The broker highlights Macquarie Asset Management's 1Q was significantly up compared to the previous corresponding period on Green Energy asset sales. The Overweight rating and $218 target are retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $218.00 Current Price is $178.89 Difference: $39.11
If MQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.83, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MQG as Buy (1) -

First quarter results for Macquarie Group delivered a stronger start to FY23 than Ord Minnett had expected due to the performance of commodities and investment income. It's felt the full year consensus forecast is now partially de-risked.

The broker had already factored-in the slowdown (referenced by management) in activity during the quarter. The FY23 net profit forecast was reduced by -4% earlier this week and is now largely reversed, and the target rises to $202 from $200. Buy.

Target price is $202.00 Current Price is $178.89 Difference: $23.11
If MQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.83, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

For the broker's initial response to Macquarie Group's AGM update, see yesterday's Report.

Upon further reflection, the broker has decided to make no changes, hence forecasts, price target of $200 and Neutral rating all remain in place.

UBS does point out the AGM update seems slightly better than expected and looks in contrast to global investment banking commentary, but the broker thinks this likely reflects timing differences in reporting periods (not necessarily that Macquarie is superior).

Target price is $200.00 Current Price is $178.89 Difference: $21.11
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $192.83, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Neutral (3) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

Nine Entertainment guided FY22 EBITDA in early May but Macquarie still sees potential for a negative surprise from wage inflation in TV.

Estimates have been reduced. Neutral. Target drops to $2.10 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.07
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.36, suggesting upside of 63.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for New Hope come from movements in the thermal coal price.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

Outperform rate and $5.00 price target are retained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.39 Difference: $0.61
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.37, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NHF as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett sees short-to medium-term benefits from covid for the Private Health Insurance sector and prefers Medibank Private over nib Holdings on valuation and a stronger capital position. There's also estimated to be less need for give-backs.

For both companies, claims continue to emerge favourably and below trend on hospital and ancillary, which provides certainty on margins for the next two years, explains the analyst.

The broker raises its target price for nib Holdings to $7.20 from $6.20 and maintains a Lighten rating.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.18, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Nickel Industries' June quarter saw another rotary kiln electric furnace earnings record, up 16.5% from the prior quarter. Record earnings were driven by a 57% increase in nickel sales, Credit Suisse notes.

However volume growth was partially offset by a 21% increase in unit cash costs, leading to an overall margin -9% below forecast.

Management expects Angel to ramp up towards full production over the September quarter as its power plant goes through commissioning. Unit costs look set to decrease, the broker suggests, as met coal and nickel ore prices decrease and Angel ramps up.

Outperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.41
If NIC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 44.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

News Corp is expected to release a rather weak FY22 report in August. Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price falls to $21.10.

Target price is $21.10 Current Price is $24.16 Difference: minus $3.06 (current price is over target).
If NWS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $32.65, suggesting upside of 33.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OML as Outperform (1) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

oOh!media won't be immune from the industry downturn but its operations overall have more to recover from past lockdowns and this, the broker suggests, will outweigh the negatives.

Hence, Outperform rating retained. Target drops to $1.60 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.34
If OML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 34.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Today's June-quarter update by Origin Energy has been overshadowed by the announcement of a large non-cash impairment to be included in the August FY22 release, points out Ord Minnett upon initial assessment.

Apart from that, the broker finds the quarterly performance from Australia Pacific Liquified Natural Gas (APLNG) equally "mixed", and there was more "mixed" news from the Energy Markets division where higher-margin residential volume underwhelmed.

Equally noteworthy, the broker highlights FY23 coal procurement for Eraring is now 3Mt contracted to a target of 5-6Mt.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: $0.45
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Paladin Energy come from movements in the uranium prices.

Outperform alongside $0.80 price target.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.08
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Buy (1) -

Realised pricing for Pilbara Minerals was lower than Ord Minnett expected in the June quarter due to higher discounts for the shipping of lower-average-grade concentrate. No guidance was given for FY23. The Buy rating and $3.50 target are unchanged.

In noting growth plans are funded and the cash balance is rising, the analyst believes capital returns will come to the fore.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.77
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 23.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates REA as Underperform (5) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

For REA Group specifically, Macquarie is concerned about weakening housing dynamics and their impact on listings.

Underperform. FY23 forecasts have been reduced. Price target loses -$2 to $88.

Target price is $88.00 Current Price is $123.53 Difference: minus $35.53 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $133.14, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Post Rio Tinto's result, Credit Suisse cuts its dividend forecast by -15-20% in 2022-24 to reflect a more cautious interim payout ratio. Even on the broker's new estimates, Rio offers an 11.8% 2023 dividend yield, or 9.3% at spot commodities.

Credit Suisse continues to believe Rio offers a clear and defined ESG recovery path, that there is an operational turnaround coming in iron ore and aluminium and that medium term growth looks attractive, with further greenfield project potential in future minerals.

Target falls to $115 from $116, Outperform retained.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $97.70 Difference: $17.3
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Rio Tinto come from movements in the iron, aluminum and copper prices.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

Macquarie prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) and South32 ((S32)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).

Outperform rating and $120 target price retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $97.70 Difference: $22.3
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Rio Tinto has formed a joint venture with the Guinea government and a consortium, to develop infrastructure for the Simandou iron ore deposit.

While the company includes its Simandou investment in its 2023/2024 capex guidance, Morgan Stanley doesn't include a valuation for Simandou in its base case. However, it's thought the project is moving in the right direction.

The Overweight rating and $115.5 target price are unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $115.50 Current Price is $97.70 Difference: $17.8
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

It is UBS's view that Rio Tinto's cash return to shareholders looks "vulnerable" this down-cycle, also because the company remains committed to higher capex over the two years ahead.

It is within this context that the surprise dividend payout cut (back to 50%) is probably best seen. UBS also highlights costs inflation is likely to prove sticky.

UBS has been worried about the outlook for iron ore prices and that concern has not abated. Neutral. Target $90, down from $92 prior.

Target price is $90.00 Current Price is $97.70 Difference: minus $7.7 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $110.36, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RMS as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

After incorporating Ramelius Resources' 4Q result into forecasts and downgrading the outlook on higher costs, Ord Minnett lowers its target price to $1.10 from $1.35. The rating also falls to Hold from Accumulate.

However, the broker believes downside to the share price is protected by balance sheet strength. Costs are expected to improve in FY24
with a higher contribution from the Penny Project, though production will likely plateau.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0
If RMS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting upside of 31.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for South32 come from movements in the aluminium. alumina, nickel, copper and manganese prices.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

Macquarie prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) and South32 ((S32)) over Rio Tinto ((RIO)) and Fortescue Metals ((FMG)).

Outperform retained with a $5.90 target price.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $2.12
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.34, suggesting upside of 40.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SDR as Neutral (3) -

A preview to SiteMinder's Q4 trading update shows a price target of $4.95 (we had $5). Neutral.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.20 Difference: $0.75
If SDR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SEK as Underperform (5) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

For this August, Seek is expected to report FY22 EBITDA in the midst of its guidance range. This, however, might be perceived as a negative, suggests the broker.

Seek is one of few media companies that will provide quantitative guidance, predicts Macquarie. Underperform rating retained. Earnings estimates, as well as DPS forecasts, have been reduced. Target $19 (unchanged).

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $22.42 Difference: minus $3.42 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $31.87, suggesting upside of 38.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Underperform (5) -

Sandfire Resources' June quarter Matsa copper production was 20% better than Credit Suisse had forecast on better grades, while zinc was in line. Site unit costs were lower on higher sales but total cash costs were higher.

Management provided a comprehensive breakdown on its FY23 guidance at Matsa. Overall, the broker was in line on copper and capex guidance but too high on zinc, and absolute costs were elevated in places.

The broker has lowered costs estimates but still remains above guidance.

Target rises to $3.35 from $2.70 on better costs and higher-margin copper production offsetting lower zinc. Underperform retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $1.03 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.06, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

Fourth quarter results for Sandfire Resources were a 15% beat versus Morgan Stanley's estimate for production though costs were a -15% miss. All up, the result was considered "not bad" in light of headwinds anticipated by the market.

FY23 guidance for DeGrussa copper production exceeds the broker's forecast by 66%, while the MATSA contained copper
production was a -7% miss. Zinc production is also a -18% miss and drives up direct cost (C1) estimates.

Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating and $6.45 target price. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $6.45 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $2.07
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.06, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Sell (5) -

The 4Q production report for Sandfire Resources revealed a miss on MATSA's costs and capex compared to Ord Minnett's forecasts, while the copper output of 18,000t beat the 15,000t predicted. DeGrussa production was in-line but costs were a -12% miss.

The Sell rating is retained as the share price is trading in excess of the broker's valuation, while the $3.80 target price is unchanged.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.06, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Buy (1) -

UBS saw a strong June-quarter performance, with copper production even beating the high end of guidance. Both Matsa and DeGrussa finished the year well, comment the analysts.

The broker retains a positive view (Buy) but is nevertheless forced to incorporate higher costs, which pulls down its valuation for Sandfire Resources.

New target price of $6.20 compares to $7.35 previously. UBS believes the shares are trading at too wide a discount to peers.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $1.82
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.06, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Despite adverse weather and the significant BMC integration, Morgans notes 2Q production for Stanmore Resources met guidance and the broker's forecast.

While the recent correction in hard coking coal pricing tempers 2022 forecasts, the analyst believes prices still support an 18-20 month payback period, strong de-leveraging and dividend upside.

The target slips to $3.20 from $3.35. Add.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $1.24
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SWM as Neutral (3) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

As Seven West Media has already provided FY22 EBITDA guidance, Macquarie suggests investor interest will be on forward guidance.

Neutral. Forecasts have been lowered, but more so for FY23. Target lifts to 45c from 37c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.71, suggesting upside of 47.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SXL as Neutral (3) -

On June 1, Macquarie downgraded its view on the media sector to Underweight from Neutral, with the broker's macro strategy team putting 60% probability of a mild recession and that does not bode well for media companies across the board.

So far, advertising volumes are holding up, but Macquarie thinks it is but a matter of time before the trend turns negative.

Southern Cross Media's FY22 result is believed to likely miss consensus forecasts with Macquarie arguing those forecasts are too high for both audio and TV.

Neutral rating retained. The broker has taken a chainsaw to its prior forecasts. Target falls to $1.20 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SXL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra has guided to $1.6-1.8bn of revenue benefits over the ten-year life of the Multi Operator Core Network agreement with TPG Telecom, which is still subject to ACCC approval.

Credit Suisse expects the deal to be consistently accretive to Telstra's earnings over time. While payments to TPG for the use of its spectrum and potential subs losses will partly offset the higher revenues, the broker nonetheless expects a $48m earnings benefit by FY28.

It's not material, the broker admits, but in the right direction. Outperform and $4.50 target retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.46, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TPG as Neutral (3) -

While TPG Telecom has guided to an initial earnings impact of negative -$40m from the Multi Operator Core Network deal with Telstra (still subject to ACCC approval), Credit Suisse expects that over time the agreement will be accretive to TPG’s earnings, with a $47m contribution to earnings by FY28.

The earnings benefit to TPG is contingent on mobile subscriber gains at Vodafone Australia over and above the broker's base case estimate, but Credit Suisse assumes TPG will gain an additional 450k mobile subs by FY28 as a result.

Neutral and $5.80 target retained.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If TPG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.91, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates VHT as Add (1) -

In the wake of 1Q results for Volpara Health Technologies, Morgans retains a positive view and feels an update on the path to profitability provided by management should be well received.

The company intends to focus on profitable high-margin products and regions, as well as large-value deals.

Despite only minor revenue forecast downgrades, the broker adopts a lower valuation multiple and the target price falls to $1.20 from $1.81. The Add rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.5
If VHT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews the outlook for Bulk Commodity Miners and highlights the weakness in the alumina markets with expectations both China and the global market to be in surplus in 2022, which will continue to weigh on alumina prices.

Analysts estimate almost 50% of the global refinery industry is losing money at a spot price of US$330/t.

Macquarie points out the key upside and downside risks to earnings forecasts for Whitehaven Coal come from movements in the thermal and coking coal prices as well as risks from Narrabri and transport disruptions on rail and port facilities.

The broker envisages downside risks to the valuation from higher borrowing costs and multiple compression from the ESG movement and a potential carbon tax.

Outperform and $6.80 price target retained.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.39 Difference: $0.41
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.45, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie considers earnings forecasts for Woolworths Group ahead of the August 25th results.

The analysts will be looking to assess the ongoing costs from covid, as well as inflation and wages cost impacts on earnings.

The broker also points out the 1H23 results will be challenged due to the over-spending on groceries during the NSW and Victorian lockdowns from a year ago.

Earnings forecasts are adjusted marginally by -0.8% and -1.2% for FY22 and FY23, respectively.

A Neutral rating and $36.40 price target are retained.

Target price is $36.40 Current Price is $37.44 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $37.22, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi has tried to establish whether Xero Go, aimed at sole traders, is beneficial or negative for UK revenue forecasts. The answer is, at this stage, inconclusive.

Buy rating and $108 price target remain intact.

Target price is $108.00 Current Price is $90.94 Difference: $17.06
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $98.88, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23: