Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi sees upside risks from a2 Milk Co's AGM update on November 20.

Buy. Target price $9.29.

Target price is $9.29 Current Price is $9.28 Difference: $0.01
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Neutral (3) -

Auckland Airport’s October update showed traffic grew 2%, slowing from August and September, mainly due to softer domestic passenger growth, up just 1%.

Citi notes international traffic rose 2.1% y/y, supported by 5% capacity growth, though load factors fell. Domestic capacity increased 2%, with a slight drop in load factor.

After improvement in August and September, the broker reckons the latest report highlights a slower-than-expected recovery, with international/domestic traffic still -9% and -11%, respectively, below the pre-covid levels.

Neutral. Target unchanged at NZ$8.10.

Current Price is $6.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes Alcidion Group has expanded its contract with US-based Leidos Holdings for a second time, adding $12.3m in total contract value (TCV) and lifting Leidos’ commitment to $44m across 2021-2028.

The contract is to deliver additional undisclosed software modules to the Commonwealth of Australia, historically the Australian Defence Force.

It’s thought the additional modules highlight Alcidion’s modular design strength and reinforce confidence in continued extensions beyond 2028.

Bell Potter considers the expansion effectively guarantees FY26 guidance and underscores Alcidion’s strong domestic relationships and recurring revenue momentum.

Buy rating. Target rises to 14c from 13c. 

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.03
If ALC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi points to a beat for ALS Ltd's 1H26 results versus expectations with a further upgrade in revenue guidance for the group due to the strength in commodities.

Underlying revenue came in 6% above both the analyst's and consensus forecasts, with commodities up 7% with a rise in sample volumes and good momentum in industrial materials and forex tailwinds.

Life Sciences underlying earnings (EBIT) also came in above expectations by 2-4% which is viewed positively in the context of margin pressure across metallurgy and industrial materials.

On the negative side, the DPS came in lower than anticipated at 19.4c, below expectations by -6% and is 30% franked.

Buy. Target unchanged at $19.45.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $21.49 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

A recovery in the exploration cycle has assisted ALS Ltd in better than expected 1H26 results with an upgrade in guidance, UBS explains on first take.

Earnings (EBIT) from commodities rose 14% y/y versus the broker's forecast at 7% growth and consensus at 6% growth, with a broadly inline margin of 28.1% against the previous year of 28.2%.

Minerals had low double-digit growth y/y compared to the UBS estimate at 8%. Life Sciences earnings (EBIT) rose 19%, a robust beat on the analyst's forecast of 8% and consensus of 6% growth.

The broker views the result as robust with a rise in organic revenue growth guidance to 13% from 6% at the midpoint, as well as incremental margin expansion of 100-125bps compared to the forecast of 70bps. Against a challenging backdrop, Life Sciences beat.

Buy rated. Target $26.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $21.49 Difference: $4.51
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.29, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALX as Buy (1) -

Citi points out AFR report indicating IFM has taken its holding in Atlas Arteria up to 35% via creep provisions.

The broker views the increased stake as a positive development that could revive takeover speculation. It also aligns with its earlier view the company is a potential acquisition target.

Buy maintained, with unchanged target of $5.70. The broker also removed the 90-day downside catalyst watch initiated on October 22.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.72
If ALX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifted Amcor's FY26 EPS forecast by 0.9% but trimmed FY27 by -2.1%.

Target cut to $17.69 from $18.46. Overweight retained.

Target price is $17.69 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: $4.63
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.28, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes a report in The Australian newspaper highlighting Abacus Storage King is considering internalisation, which would significantly reduce reliance on parent Abacus Group ((ABG)) after the failed PSA/Ki Corp takeover.

The broker awaits official confirmation and will look for any payment Abacus Storage King may need to make to the parent as part of the internalisation.

The broker believes internalising could help narrow its -21% discount to NTA and ease capital-raising constraints for development and a cleaner structure may also renew interest from potential acquirers such as PSA.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.125
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

In the English High Court, BHP Group has been ruled liable under Brazilian law for damages in the class action regarding the Samarco case. Damages will be determined in subsequent proceedings over the next 2-3 years while the company appeals the judgement.

BHP Group disclosed a provision for Samarco of US$5.8bn back in June, revealing it spent US$1bn in the four months up to October 31 and has adjusted its provision to US$5.5bn.

Macquarie increases its measure of the Samarco settlement by $1.3bn, believing there is a higher risk of payments associated with the Dutch class action, where the company shares liability with Vale.

No changes to earnings estimates have been made. Target steady at $44 with a Neutral rating.

Target price is $44.00 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $1.52
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

The English High Court has found BHP Group liable for the 2015 Fundao dam failure, making it a "polluter" under Brazilian environmental law, Morgan Stanley explains.

Damages for the group are yet to be established, with the analyst not anticipating any cash flow impacts until 2029 and contingent upon BHP's initial appeal, second stage trials are slated for late 2026 and early 2027. The third stage of the final trial is expected around 2028.

Morgan Stanley highlights the group asserts it is liable under Brazilian corporate law, and the circa US$32bn Brazil agreement already agreed with Brazilian authorities will hold and remains the optimal compensation.

Morgan Stanley retains Overweight and a $48 target. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $5.52
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Accumulate (2) -

BHP Group has been judged liable by the English High Court for the dam failure at the Samarco project in Brazil in 2015, a joint venture with Vale. The company will appeal the decision, and any damages are expected to be mitigated by claims already paid.

The company has marked down its remaining share to an aggregate provision of US$5.5bn. Ord Minnett incorporates a provision of US$6.1bn in its modelling and makes no changes to earnings estimates or valuation.

Accumulate and $45 target retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $42.48 Difference: $2.52
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BSL as Buy (1) -

In an initial take on today's AGM trading update by BlueScope Steel, UBS notes the primary headwind continues to be a weaker performance from New Zealand Steel, which came in circa -$20m below prior guidance.

This outcome was partly offset by a one-off retrospective GST credit benefiting average selling prices, explains the broker.

UBS highlights that North American guidance trending toward the lower end was anticipated, given softer 1Q26 spreads and US steel sector read-through.

Overall, management guided for 1H26 earnings (EBIT) at the lower end of the $550-620m range, broadly consistent with the broker's $556m forecast.

Target $26.50. Buy.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $22.48 Difference: $4.02
If BSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.17, suggesting upside of 14.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAT as Buy (1) -

Catapult Group’s interim result (out today) exceeded UBS expectations at first glance, with the broker highlighting strong growth and expanding operating leverage.

Annual contract value (ACV) rose 20% year-on-year to US$115.8m, slightly above guidance, while revenue increased 17% to US$67.6m, outperforming consensus.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$11.7m, excluding a one-off -US$2m payroll tax expense, reflected an 88% improvement and a 660bps margin gain, observe the analysts.

UBS notes continued momentum across both Performance & Health (wearables) and Tactics & Coaching (video), with total professional teams up 8% to 3,878 and multi-product adoption lifting to 22%.

It’s thought incremental margins above 50% demonstrate strong scalability as growth accelerates. UBS retains a positive view, expecting FY26 ACV growth of around 23%. Target $8.50. Buy.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: $3.04
If CAT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 66.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

Citi notes there are over $750m in confirmed or speculated (media reports) deals since August on Charter Hall.

Overall, too, the broker notes Australian real estate transaction activity is recovering, with 2025 expected to surpass 2024, creating a supportive environment for fund managers like Charter Hall.

Rising asset values and stronger listed REIT activity could lift consensus FUM and earnings, supporting an earnings upgrade cycle, the broker highlights.

Ahead of a potential catalyst at the November 20 AGM, the broker maintains Buy rating and lifts the target to $26.10 from $26.00.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $22.23 Difference: $3.87
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.34, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Calix has a joint development agreement with Rio Tinto ((RIO)) for its zero emissions steel technology in Kwinana, WA. Shaw and Partners believes this is a significant step towards commercial and financial commitments and a FID.

The venture is non-exclusive and the plant will be built on "neutral" territory, which leaves room for other participants if necessary.

The broker believes this is a major step in the company's drive to produce green iron and steel, with Rio Tinto's participation adding credibility to the technology.

No changes to forecasts are made and a Buy rating and $1.70 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $1.025
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 152% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Elders’ FY25 underlying earnings (EBIT) of $143.5m aligned with revised guidance of $142-146m, explains Bell Potter, and rose 12% year-on-year, while profit increased 34% to $86m.

The analysts assess a strong performance, supported by improved cash flow and significantly lower net debt, which fell to $278.6m compared to $436.8m at the end of FY25.

The broker expects FY26 growth to be driven by the Delta Agribusiness consolidation, strength in livestock pricing, and disciplined cost control. 

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and target of $9.45.

Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $2.04
If ELD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ELD as Buy (1) -

After a deeper analysis of Elders' FY25 results, where the company highlighted a 30% earnings lift in the first six weeks of FY26, Citi left FY26 revenue forecast unchanged but raised EBIT estimate by 1%.

Minor changes to other forecasts. Buy retained, with unchanged target of $8.45.

Summary of the broker's comments earlier follows:

Following the conference call with Elders post-FY25 results, Citi has an improved outlook on the company due to stronger FY26 crop protection sales, solid cattle activity and leverage returning to target.

Other positives include CEO stability, tax impacts being factored into future EPS goals, and continued progress on backward integration for both Elders and Delta.

Earlier, Citi stated the results met expectations. Cash conversion rose to 137% versus 1H25 at 82% and 129% in FY24, which the analyst attributes to livestock prices and a late start to the winter crop.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $1.04
If ELD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ELD as Outperform (1) -

FY25 operating results from Elders were in line with Macquarie's expectations. Underlying net profit was better than expected, largely because of lower tax.

The company is optimistic regarding the FY26 outlook, with the first six weeks of trading up 30% as the effect of drought in the southern areas ebbs. The cash flow profile is expected to improve with less bolt-on M&A and the end of the SysMod transformation.

The broker believes the business offers a combination of a cyclical rebound, amid improvement in seasonal conditions, and the medium- term potential of organic expansion. Macquarie resumes an Outperform rating and $8.25 target.

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $0.84
If ELD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ELD as Buy (1) -

Morgans views Elders' FY25 results as slightly disappointing, despite being in line with recently updated guidance. The 2H25 earnings (EBIT) were down -11.6% due to the drought conditions, impacting the retail and wholesale business.

D&A moved up with higher costs arising from acquisitions and its transition projects (Systems Modernisation) with no ancillary earnings benefit.

Management did not offer any formal FY26 guidance, but highlighted a robust start to FY26, with trading for the first six weeks up 30% y/y, including the Delta acquisition.

Easing drought conditions in Vic and SA make the company more optimistic about FY26. The analyst retains a Buy rating and lifts the target to $8.65 from $8.50.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $1.24
If ELD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.70, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifted Flight Centre Travel's FY26 EPS forecast by 3.8% and FY27 by 3.2%.

Target rises to $15.40 from $15.20. Overweight maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $13.10 Difference: $2.3
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.17, suggesting upside of 22.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FPR as Buy (1) -

FleetPartners Group produced a FY25 result that was ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker found the outlook for the first half "slightly muted" as management has signalled uncertainty regarding ongoing macro challenges.

The capital management strategy has changed, after five years of buybacks, with dividends resuming at a 60-70% payout and slightly ahead of the broker's expectations.

The company has also acquired Remunerate, providing an entry into a base salary packaging offering. Buy rating. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: $0.49
If FPR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JHX as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi points to James Hardie Industries' 2Q26 trading update, revealing earnings (EBITDA) at the upper end of the pre-guided range, resulting from a mid-single digit fall in fibre cement exterior volumes. This compared with previous expectations of a high mid-single to low double-digit decline.

The mid-single digit sell-through in decking was better than the low-single digit former guidance. Management has upgraded guidance for FY26, which is 4-5% higher at the midpoint versus consensus.

The analyst estimates FY26 EPS of US$1.03, 9 -10% above the previous estimate.

Buy rating and target of $36.50.

Target price is $36.50 Current Price is $25.43 Difference: $11.07
If JHX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.35, suggesting upside of 33.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Lendlease Group's announcement that most investors in its $2.9bn APPF Retail Fund requested redemptions, triggering a full asset sell-down, including its $203m co-investment.

The broker highlights the earnings impact is small at around $3m fee EBITDA pre-tax, but the market may worry about risks to the broader $7.8bn remaining APPF platform.

With the share price already down -14% year-to-date, some downside appears priced in, and the broker sees upside risks from here from asset sales, buybacks, and potential development project wins.

The redemptions could also create opportunities for other managers and provide valuable pricing signals for large retail assets, in the broker's view.

Buy. Target price $6.70.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $5.49 Difference: $1.21
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.35, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MAD as Initiation of coverage with Outperform (1) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Mader Group, Australia's largest independent provider of heavy mobile equipment maintenance, with an Outperform rating and $10.40 target.

The broker expects the business will make further inroads into existing core markets amid increasing numbers of new service verticals while retaining momentum internationally.

The strong balance sheet, reducing capital intensity, and a five-year average return on invested capital of 25%, are considered attractive aspects of a "well-managed" business.

Macquarie suggests the higher valuation is more than compensated by superior earnings growth potential and returns on invested capital.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.41 Difference: $1.99
If MAD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MYR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifted Myer's FY26 EPS forecast by 1.8% but trimmed FY27 by -1.5%.

Target cut to 69c from 77c. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $0.69 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.275
If MYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NHC as Hold (3) -

New Hope (July year-end) reported quarterly underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $108m, below Bell Potter’s $164m estimate, as higher Bengalla costs offset stronger prices and production.

The analysts assess a solid quarter operationally, with realised prices up 4% quarter-on-quarter and saleable production slightly ahead of forecasts.

The broker notes FY26 guidance implies flat output of 10.2-11.5mt, while higher costs at Bengalla and rail disruptions at New Acland weigh on margins. The analysts' EPS forecasts are reduced by -38% in FY26, -15% in FY27 and -4% in FY28.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and lowers the target to $4.00 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

New Hope's production in 1Q26 was weak in Macquarie's view, with ROM coal saleable production down -8% and sales down -4%. The guidance for FY26 has also been downgraded, albeit largely in line with the broker's prior forecasts.

No buybacks were recorded during the quarter, with the company intent on maintaining a strong dividend profile. Macquarie reduces estimates for FY26 earnings per share by -35%. 

Underperform reiterated. Target steady at $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NHC as Accumulate (2) -

New Hope reported a robust start to FY26 with 1Q sales coal volumes rising 7% q/q to 2.7mt as logistical problems eased over the period, Morgans details. Realised pricing also moved up to $136.6/t and FOB costs fell around -18% q/q to $82/t.

The coal producer continues to be the lowest cost producer, while more adverse weather has continued to impact Bengalla. Management softened guidance for FY26, including a 2H weighting of production.

Morgans continues to rate the stock Accumulate with a target price of $4.55, noting the company has raised its stake in Malabar Resources by 3% to a new total holding of around 26%.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $0.36
If NHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OML as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed oOh!media's target price to $1.80 from $2.00.

Overweight retained. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.505
If OML meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes China's battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales rose 5% m/m and 32% y/y in October to a record 1.11m units. Year-to-date sales were up 43% y/y, albeit with some moderation over the month.

The broker's China autos team points to tightness in the battery supplies market, which might be curtailing the surge into year-end, notably for new models.

Post the materials team's recent Shanghai trip, possible deficits in lithium markets could emerge as soon as early 2026.

For lithium exposure, Morgan Stanley prefers Pilbara Minerals and IGO ((IGO)) which is also Overweight rated.

Target $2.85. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.98, suggesting downside of -27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed Premier Investments' target price to $24 from $26.  EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -7.2% and by -7.0% for FY27.

Overweight unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $17.62 Difference: $6.38
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.78, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QAN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowered Qantas Airways' target price to $12.60 from $13.40.

Overweight retained and an In-Line industry view.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $9.75 Difference: $2.85
If QAN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting upside of 29.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates QPM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter expects QPM Energy’s 112MW Isaac Power Station to transform earnings by unlocking the value of its 435PJ Moranbah Gas Project reserves.

The project’s feasibility study estimated annual revenue of $71m, earnings (EBITDA) of $49m, and a post-tax net present value (NPV) of $167m.

It’s thought the recently secured $114m lease for GE Vernova turbines and pending debt from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility will support a final investment decision this quarter.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating with a 9c target price.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.052
If QPM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REA as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley cut REA Group's target price to $290 from $300.

Overweight maintained.

Target price is $290.00 Current Price is $199.70 Difference: $90.3
If REA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $256.46, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RHC as Neutral (3) -

Ramsay Health Care appointed Anthony Neilson as CFO effective 24 Nov, ahead of the 25 Nov AGM. Neilson is ex-Santos ((STO)) CCO and former CFO..

While not from a healthcare background, Citi reckons he brings strong financial experience and merger execution capability, and a permanent CFO is positive for potential structural changes for Sante.

Separately, the broker highlights AFR report about renewed discussion of a National Efficient Price for private sector procedures. The broker didn't comment on this but notes private health players have generally opposed this.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $33.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $31.46 Difference: $1.54
If RHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.22, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi lifted the target price on Rio Tinto to $140 from $119. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $132.59 Difference: $7.41
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.42, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SCG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reiterates Scentre Group as one of the preferred Australian property sector stocks even with the more "tempered" outlook for the domestic interest rate cycle.

The group's CPI linked leases give some revenue protection if interest rates remain high. Additionally, the analyst estimates debt margins could compress by around -25bps from July 2025 to December 2026 based on the debt expiry and issuance.

Scentre is forecast to achieve 6% funds from operations growth in 2026, even if it encounters headwinds from the tempered rate cut outlook.

Overweight rating. Industry View: In Line. Target remains at $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.52
If SCG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SGP as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed its modelling for Stockland to refine the longer-term contribution from the logistics, data centre and build-to-sell joint ventures.

The company has formed a partnership with John Boyd Properties, which contributed the land as its equity share, to develop a logistics hub at the former Kogarah golf course, Sydney.

In data centres, Stockland plans a joint venture with Swedish EdgeConneX to develop and operate centres in Australia. In Sydney, Stockland will construct 1500 units comprising of 900 social housing and 600 affordable homes in partnership with Homes NSW and local indigenous authorities.

Subsequent to the review, Ord Minnett raises free funds estimates by 10% from FY30, making slight reductions for the short term. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $6.50 from $5.80.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.17 Difference: $0.33
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SKO as Buy (1) -

Serko's 1H26 EBITDA beat expectations, which, together with the reiteration of FY26 revenue and lower capex guidance, could lead to share price outperformance in Citi's view.

The broke notes the positives in the result include strong B4B customer growth, up 40% y/y, stabilising GetThere churn with large customer churn less than 1%, and strong cash conversion.

Among the negatives were lower room-nights per customer, a -2% y/y fall in Australasia ARPB, and declining B4B commission metrics.

The broker reckons the key debate is whether FY26 guidance is conservative, given it implies lower revenue in 2H. At the same time, it acknowledged A&NZ is seasonally lower in 2H and there would be government shutdown impact on GetThere.

Buy. Target price $3.45.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $1.25
If SKO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 109.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SVR as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Solvar's strategy to concentrate on higher quality lending and growth in commercial was in focus again at its AGM 1Q26 trading update, according to Morgans.

Australian interest income over the period slipped -3.9% y/y due to weaker lending growth and the revenue mix. The Australian gross loan book finished the quarter at around $838.3m, basically flat on June FY25 year-end and down -4.8% q/q.

The refinancing of Money3's debt facility is expected to generate cost savings and improve diversification for the group, the analyst highlights. Management's FY26 guidance is net profit after tax growth of 5.9% y/y.

Morgans lowers its loan book forecasts by around -6% in FY26, with a more modest assumed lift in lending activity, but raises the FY27 and FY28 EPS forecast by 6%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. No change in $1.85 target price.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.64 Difference: $0.21
If SVR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

UBS points to the Telstra Group launch of internet-only plans with unbundled Smart Modem, pitched -$8 to -$14/mth lower vs the bundled plans.

The analyst is watching to see whether Telstra can slow or stabilise its decline in SIOs (services in operation, or the number of active fixed line broadband customers) by offering newly introduced, cheaper unbundled internet-only plans.

UBS uses the examples of 500Mbps plans unbundled for Telstra at $99/mth versus bundled at $113/mth, against Aussie Broadband ((ABB)), Superloop ((SLC)) and TPG Telecom ((TPG)) at $95/mth.

Neutral rated. Target $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.93 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting downside of -0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

At a recent trip to China, Citi observed lower retail pricing for key Penfolds Bins at stores vs August, suggesting weakening consumer dynamics that could pressure Treasury Wine Estates' FY26 EBITS forecasts.

Bin 389 (2022) was down -9%; Bin 407 showed mixed pricing (up 4% for 2021 and down -15% for 2022), with the 2022 vintage more widely stocked. Bin 28 and Bin 128 inventory remained scarce, and Penfolds appeared to be losing shelf space in some frequently visited retailers.

Prices for One by Penfolds were down mid-single digits across multiple varietals.

The broker also points to peer updates (Diageo, Remy Cointreau), indicating significant softness in China’s high-end alcohol market, which reinforces the pressure on Penfolds.

Sell. Target unchanged at $5.26.

Target price is $5.26 Current Price is $5.82 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates VGL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the share price of Vista International has fallen, despite affirmations of growth, and this has created an attractive entry point to the stock.

The broker believes the cloud transition is significantly de-risked and, beyond the NZ$315m annual recurring revenue target, the market is underestimating the growth potential. It appears to value the stock as if revenue growth beyond FY30 will be low single digit and margins flat.

This is despite the business being the 'operating system' for most of cinema distribution. A Buy rating is reiterated. Target is $4.10.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $1.83
If VGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.66, suggesting upside of 59.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WA1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

WA1 Resources’ latest Luni drilling returned multiple high-grade niobium intercepts, highlights Bell Potter, including 67.3m at 5.4% niobium pentoxid (NB2O5) and 30m at 9.8% niobium pentoxid from LUDD-0167.

Infill and extensional drilling continues, with some high-grade intersections occurring outside the current mineral resource estimate, observe the analysts.

It’s thought recent weakness in the company's share price presents an attractive entry into a tier-one niobium asset, supported by de-risking progress and an upcoming initial study.

The broker highlights upside potential from niobium pentoxide production and mine-plan optimisation benefits similar to Lynas Rare Earths’ ((LYC)) Mt Weld model.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and sets a target of $24.80, down from $25.70.

Target price is $24.80 Current Price is $15.62 Difference: $9.18
If WA1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates WZR as Buy (1) -

Wisr has raised $9.4m in equity in order to scale its loan book while delivering cash net profit. It will also be able to refinance corporate debt.

Shaw and Partners upgrades FY26 cash net profit by 80% and FY27 estimates by 10%.

Based on the broker's assumptions for loan growth and free cash flow, the business is expected to have adequate funding for $600m in loan originations in FY26 and $815m in FY27. The ambition is to achieve a $2bn loan book over time.

Buy/High Risk rating and 7c target maintained. 

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.038
If WZR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 119% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources