Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ADT as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Adriatic Metals confirmed takeover speculation, stating it has allowed limited due diligence to Canadian miner Dundee Precious Metals.

Morgans notes Dundee has 28 days from May 21 to either make an offer or advise it doesn't intend to proceed. The broker believes the company would be a logical acquirer due to its experience across base and precious metals projects in Eastern Europe.

The share price has rallied around 35% since the confirmation, prompting the broker to downgrade to Hold from Add.

Target price rises to $4.74 from $4.50 on the removal of Bosnia sovereign risk discount.

Transfer of coverage to Ross Bennett.

Target price is $4.74 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If ADT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

ALS Ltd's FY25 final partially franked dividend of 19.7c was in line with Bell Potter's expectations, and underlying net profit came within the previously flagged range.

The focus was on the outlook, with the group's organic growth forecast of 5-7% for FY26 falling short of the broker's 7.9% forecast. The company expects EBIT margin to expand, and the broker is forecasting a rise of 97bps vs -185bps in FY25.

The analyst notes the company is on track to achieve its FY27 targets

Institutional equity placement of $350m is planned, with up to $40m additional flagged via SPP, and $230m will be invested for capacity expansion. The broker adjusted forecasts to account for higher capex and equity raising, lower interest rate expense and life science EBIT expectations in FY26-27.

Buy. Target cut to $19.70 from $20.00.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $17.69 Difference: $2.01
If ALQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as No Rating (-1) -

ALS Ltd's FY25 revenue was down -1% y/y and in line with recent guidance range, but lower than Macquarie's forecast. EBIT for life sciences division beat the broker's forecast but commodities missed.

The broker expects the environmental division within life sciences to outperform, contributing to 20-40bps margin improvement in FY26. In the case of commodities division, the analyst expects flat margin to continue in 1H26, before recovery in 2H26.

The company is doing $350m capital raise to fund expansions of its lab capacity. The broker cut FY26-27 EPS forecasts by -4% on lower commodities earnings and included $350m equity raising which it highlights is EPS neutral in FY26 due to interest cost savings.

The broker has research restriction. No rating and target price.

Current Price is $17.69. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ALQ as Add (1) -

ALS Ltd's FY25 result met Morgans' expectations but the more important takeaway was the broker's optimistic view on not just the life sciences division but also commodities.

The analyst is convinced the 15% rise in mineral volumes at the start of FY26 was not a one-off and prices will follow volume gains as the market tightens. The broker left FY26 forecast for 10% revenue growth unchanged but moderated margin growth assumption.

In the life sciences division, the broker expects to see organic growth rates continue and expects 90bps of margin expansion in FY26 from legacy business and acquisitions.

The company is raising $350m equity to fund expansions, and the broker expects the dilution impact to be largely offset by interest savings.

Add. Target cut to $20.00 from $20.50.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.69 Difference: $2.31
If ALQ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.91, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

In a first read of Eagers Automotive's AGM update, UBS notes underlying profit before tax (PBT) is marginally up y/y. With 1H25 consensus of $198m vs $183m in 1H24, it suggests PBT is tracking behind expectations.

The broker highlights a bigger skew to 2H results will be required to meet FY25 expectations. Overall, the broker believes margins slipped from FY24 level, whereas the company had flagged 2H24 would be the bottom.

The analyst reckons the impact of interest rate cuts is likely to be a story from 2H25 onwards.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $14.80.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $17.88 Difference: minus $3.08 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.88, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans revisited the outlook for Aurizon Holdings following a weak narrative in the bulk and containerised freight segments, which it believes led to the $500m subordinated debt issue and cost-cut program.

The broker downgraded FY25 revenue forecast by -3%, and lowered EBITDA forecast by -8% to $1.52bn, which now sits below the company's guidance range of $1.66-1.74bn. Lower volumes across both the network and coal divisions are the key reasons behind the downgrade.

The broker removed share buyback from its forecasts, expecting the company to instead pay down debt with free cash flow.

Target cut to $3.10 from $3.28. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.2
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Hold (3) -

Morgans revised forecasts for Breville Group to account for the proposed 30% US tariffs on China-manufactured goods, noting the company is currently significantly exposed to the trade war.

Production shifts to other locations are progressing, and the expectation is for 80% of products destined for the US to be relocated to other countries.

On the positive side, the analyst highlighted SharkNinja's 1Q25 update pointed to strong demand for espresso globally.

The broker lifted FY26 revenue forecast on expectation of at least 6% price increases, but EBIT forecast was lowered by -8.8%. For FY27, EBIT forecast trimmed by -8.3%.

Hold. Target cut to $30.75 from $33.45.

Target price is $30.75 Current Price is $29.19 Difference: $1.56
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.78, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Buy retained, as well as the target price of $23.00 (last upgraded in late April). UBS analysts point out US retailer stock intensity, measured as Inventory-to-COGS, is now -5% below pre-covid levels and down -3% over the past 12 months.

Also, this financial metric has increased slightly (by 0.6%) since the last quarterly update suggesting some restocking activity. The broker also believes it remains too early for any impact from proposed US import tariffs to show up.

When combining these data with sales data for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), the conclusion is the overall environment for Brambles operationally might be improving.

Commentary does acknowledge it remains too early for making conclusive observations.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.81 Difference: $0.19
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Equal-weight (3) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare reported FY25 revenue of NZ$2.01bn and profit of NZ$377m, both at the top end of guidance and slightly ahead of market expectations, observes Morgan Stanley.

The positive outcome was driven by strong hospital segment growth and expanding gross margins, explains the analyst. The gross margin improved 181bps year-on-year to 62.9%, helped by efficiency initiatives, while adjusted EBITDA also outperformed estimates.

FY26 guidance implies revenue of NZ$2.15-2.25bn and profit of NZ$390-440m, below forecasts by consensus and the broker, partly due to anticipated US tariffs affecting hospital product margins.

Morgan Stanley maintains an Equal-weight rating with a price target of NZ$36.70. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $34.12. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Commentary from Goodman Group's conference call following Q3 results was largely in line with Citi's initial take. The company believes it is well-positioned to sustain earnings growth.

A 500MW development program due to start in June 2006 is progressing well and spans key metro markets across the US, Europe, Japan, Australia and HK.

In the initial take, Citi maintained a positive stance on the company following today’s Q3 result, which reaffirmed FY25 operating EPS growth guidance of 9%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 10%.

At first glance, the result highlights to the broker ongoing momentum in data centre development, with work in progress (WIP) increasing to $13.7bn across 66 projects, more than half now comprised of data centres.

Management remains optimistic about long-term growth, underpinned by supply constraints, strategic land acquisitions, and strong demand for infrastructure supporting AI and cloud computing.

Customer demand remains resilient despite delays in decision-making due to macroeconomic uncertainty, with Goodman leveraging its position to acquire key sites amid less competition, observes Citi.

New WIP commencements are yielding a cost return of 9%, and occupancy across partnerships remains high at 96.5%, note the analysts, with rent reversion potential of 16%.

Citi sees the data centre rollout as a core earnings driver heading into 4Q25, supporting a robust long-term outlook.

Buy. Target $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $32.68 Difference: $7.32
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.44, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the 3Q25 operational update from Goodman Group, with management confirming guidance for operational EPS growth of 9% in FY25 and a dividend per share of 30c, which is 10% higher than the broker's and consensus estimates.

Management restated the key performance targets for data centres, but no new information was provided on lease contracts or capital partners. However, management highlighted they were in conversations with "several large customers" and "a range of potential investment partners."

The broker notes assets under management grew 1.7% to $85.8bn in the previous quarter and are expected to increase further upon completion of a new partnership in North America.

The analyst retains an Outperform rating and $36.31 target price, although the quarterly update is likely to disappoint the market due to the absence of upgrades and lack of new news on data centre developments.

Target price is $36.31 Current Price is $32.68 Difference: $3.63
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.44, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett - Cessation of coverage

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of floods impacting the NSW Mid-North Coast and Hunter over the past week, UBS initially assesses ultimate
claims costs for both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group should be manageable at circa -$50-75m each.

For Insurance Australia Group, below-budget catastrophe (CAT) events increase the likelihood of reinsurance (RI) profit commission benefits because of the structure of long-term reinsurance agreements, explains the broker.

Unchanged Neutral rating and $9.30 target. 

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.72 Difference: $0.58
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.79, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Citi continues to adopt a cautious tone around Imdex and the signs of a near-term rebound in exploration as signalled by the company.

The broker states the update could be interpreted both ways but places greater emphasis on the downward revision of previous exploration data excluding re-assays, revised entries, and resampled drill holes.

To the analyst, this is a sign miners are adopting a more conservative and cautious approach before committing to projects.

On the positive side, junior raisings were over US$1bn in April—the second time in 2025—with four transactions above US$50m in April versus none in March.

Citi remains Neutral rated with a $2.90 target price and continues to believe there are downside risks to FY26 earnings expectations.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.1
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.89, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Management at Mineral Resources has lowered FY25 attributable shipment guidance for the Onslow Iron project to 7.8-8.0mt from 8.5-8.7mt, citing haulage limitations and slower-than-expected road train cycle times.

Despite these issues, the broker notes the project remains on schedule to reach nameplate capacity of 35mtpa by 1Q FY26.

The FOB cost target was also increased to $49/wmt from $45/wmt, reflecting changes to mining, transportation, and shipment agreements, as well as inflationary pressure, explain the analysts.

Sustaining capex forecasts from FY27 onwards have been revised lower than previously modelled, at $2/wmt for both Onslow and mining services.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $35.00 price target.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $23.75 Difference: $11.25
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.66, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi notes the commentary from Infratil’s ((IFT)) FY25 results that new data centre contracts have been deferred, which Citi views as existing news and aligns with what the broker has been documenting regarding Microsoft pausing new contracts.

In contrast, Citi highlights industry feedback pointing to Amazon’s AWS looking for sizeable capacity in Melbourne, with the city viewed as a “super-cluster” for AI/ML (machine learning) workloads, which augurs well for NextDC’s M2 and M3 facilities.

Citi also believes tomorrow’s earnings report from Nvidia is important for both the NextDC stock and the sector.

Buy rated with an $18.70 target price.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $12.98 Difference: $5.72
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.50, suggesting upside of 46.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Citi updates its earnings forecasts for Orora following Investor Day and incorporating further uncertainty around European tariffs.

The broker lowers earnings before interest and tax estimates for FY25–FY27, and the target price slips to $2.05 from $2.10.

Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.12
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PFP as Buy (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners' FY25 revenue guidance of $220-225m fell short of Bell Potter's forecast by -4% at the midpoint, and operating EBITDA missed by around -9%.

The guidance factors in a decline in volumes, with average revenue per funeral returning to the long-term growth range of 2-4%.

The broker revised forecasts, resulting in 2H25 EBITA margin narrowing to 23% from 25.8% previously forecast. A recovery in volumes in FY26 is expected, leading to margin improvement forecast.

Buy. Target cut to $5.50 from $6.30.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $1.04
If PFP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PFP as Outperform (1) -

Propel Funeral Partners' FY25 revenue guidance missed Macquarie's forecast by -3% due to weaker-than-expected volumes in 2H25. The forecast for underlying EBITDA was also lower, implying a lower margin vs the broker's forecast.

The broker believes death volumes can be volatile and expects the contraction in 2H to be temporary, with long-term fundamentals still attractive as death rates are expected to peak in Australia/NZ.

The analyst notes acquisition activity has quietened down this year following a record FY24, but the pipeline is healthy.

EPS forecasts for FY25-27 downgraded due to lower volumes in 2H25 and a moderation in underlying EBITDA margins. 

Outperform. Target cut to $5.66 from $6.65.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $1.2
If PFP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley maintains an Overweight rating on Rio Tinto (target $119.50) supported by strong free cash flow, a robust balance sheet, and upside potential from improved iron ore prices and long-term aluminium growth.

The broker sees valuation appeal with the company trading below historical EV/EBITDA averages and offering a compelling dividend yield, particularly in a softening rate environment.

Key focus areas, suggest the analysts, include the ramp-up of Simandou, ongoing decarbonisation investments, and execution of growth in copper and lithium portfolios.

Morgan Stanley continues to prefer Rio Tinto among the diversified miners for its balance of earnings quality, capital discipline, and exposure to long-term structural commodities.

Target price is $119.50 Current Price is $115.25 Difference: $4.25
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $122.25, suggesting upside of 7.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RRL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Regis Resources is downgraded to Hold from Add due to recent share price performance, with a higher target price of $5.24 from $4.80.

Morgans notes the company continues to upgrade its resources and reserves, with the latest mineral resources at 7.5moz, up 600koz or 9% after mining depletion, the broker explains, and ore reserves of 1.7moz, up 690koz or 68% after mining depletion.

The analyst explains this is the fifth consecutive year of reserve growth for Duketon, and drilling at Tropicana infers additional underground potential, with ore reserves up to 641koz from 317koz including ore depletion.

Target price is $5.24 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: $0.33
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.24, suggesting downside of -13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi downgrades South32 to Neutral from Buy, with a lower target price of $3.40 from $3.70 and no change to EPS estimates.

The broker believes there is an ongoing challenge between improving dynamics in China and global macro headwinds. The Australian mining sector has underperformed by -30% since October 2023, the analyst states, despite a slight pick-up in the AUD commodity index.

This is viewed as unusual. Citi economists are flagging global growth to ease to 2.3% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, and the full impact of the tariffs has yet to be experienced.

The analyst expects South32 shares to remain cheaper for longer due to softer demand for ex-China metals.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.31
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.76, suggesting upside of 22.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating on Straker Limited, raising its target price to 52c from 37c following a stronger-than-expected FY25 result.

Revenue reached $44.9m, at the top end of guidance and ahead of the broker's expectation, supported by a strong gross margin of 67% and record adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $4.8m.

Growth in Managed Services and the initial contribution from AI product Verify offset a decline in traditional Language Services, as the company pivots towards higher-margin, AI-driven offerings, explain the analysts.

The transition away from legacy services and the upcoming expiry of the IBM contract in December 2025 present key execution risks suggests the broker.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.04
If STG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

In the wake of floods impacting the NSW Mid-North Coast and Hunter over the past week, UBS initially assesses ultimate
claims costs for both Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group should be manageable at circa -$50-75m each.

For Suncorp Group, the broker's target rises to to $21.65 from $21.35 on a higher assumed multiple. Neutral.

Target price is $21.65 Current Price is $20.85 Difference: $0.8
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.16, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Telstra Group announced its Connected Future30 strategy, focusing on cost discipline and efficiency, to deliver consistent growth to shareholders.

Macquarie notes $4.5bn of reductions were identified in operating and capital costs, and the company expects more than 50% of communication revenue to come from Network as a Product (NaaP by FY30. 

The broker highlights AI was the focus and the company suggested it could scale AI without putting pressure on costs from higher cloud expenses. The company also announced price increases for Telsta-branded and Belong mobile postpaid plans.

EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 3% and by 11% for FY26.

Target increased to $5.28 from $3.93. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $5.28 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.53
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley views Telstra Group's recent investor day as supportive of its positive stance on the stock, with reaffirmed confidence in strong organic growth from the Mobiles and InfraCo divisions. A clear commitment to capital returns was also noted.

The broker revisits its earlier analysis of the potential monetisation of Telstra’s 22-year CPI-linked contract with the NBN, which currently delivers around $1bn in annual cash flows.

Based on a discounted cash flow valuation with a 6.5% weighted average cost of capital (WACC), the analysts estimate the NBN contract alone to be worth $18–19.5bn.

If this asset were fully monetised, the broker explains the remaining Telstra business, including its market-leading Mobiles segment, would be trading at just circa 5x FY26E EBITDA, significantly below peers.

Additionally, if Australia sees multiple interest rate cuts over the next 12 months, Morgan Stanley expects Telstra to benefit through a more attractive dividend yield and a potential re-rating of InfraCo's value.

Overweight. Target $5.00. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.25
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Reduce (5) -

Telstra Group management reconfirmed FY25 guidance at the Investor Day, including an aim to "grow cash earnings by a mid-single-digit compound average growth rate to FY30" with a target return on invested capital of 10% by FY30.

Management is also seeking to grow the dividend sustainably, even if only partially franked, from highlighted surplus cash of $4bn over the next five years.

The broker notes commentary around mobile suggests the cadence of subscriber growth has not changed, which is viewed as a positive.

Morgans raises FY26/FY27 earnings estimates by circa 10%, with medium-term EPS growth lifted to 5% from 4%, resulting in a higher target price of $4 from $3.35.

No change to Reduce rating. 

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett maintains confidence in Telstra Group's strategic direction following its investor day, despite the absence of formal quantitative guidance.

The broker forecasts operating earnings growth of around $300m annually, implying an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for both EBITDA and EPS through FY30, driven by mobile, InfraCo, cost savings, and AI integration.

Capital management remains central to the investment case, suggests the analyst, with estimated share buybacks of $5-6bn over five years, even after factoring in dividends, capex, and NBN costs.

While dividend growth is expected to be sustained, a potential limitation on franking credits later in the decade could lead to partially franked distributions, notes Ord Minnett.

Target rises to $5.00 from $4.50. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to recent share price strength.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.25
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS notes Telstra Group presented a solid outlook at its Connected Future 30 strategy day, focusing on growing demand and its competitive advantages.

The broker believes the company's 10% ROIC target by FY30 is achievable but remains cautious due to additional capex required in FY27-28 from spectrum auctions. Other headwinds include increased competition and softer government spending, but on the positive side, investment in AI could cut costs and aid productivity improvements.

The company lifted mobile monthly price for consumers/SMEs, but the net impact will be diluted by additional costs.

Rating downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target lifted to $4.60 from $4.50 on valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.71, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the latest Nielsen data for the four weeks to May 17, which suggest Treasury Wine Estates’ American sales fell -11% compared to a market decline of -2%.

This is a minor improvement on the previous four-week period, where sales fell -15%. The data suggests Treasury’s sales have been trending down since the 1H25 result, where management lowered earnings guidance.

Positively, DAOU luxury brands showed better growth, with sales rising at a faster clip than in the previous four weeks. Further confirmation is required by the analyst to be more certain around the Americas business for 2H25.

No change to Neutral rating and $10.50 target price. Earnings estimates remain unchanged.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.22 Difference: $2.28
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.54, suggesting upside of 42.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating on Vault Minerals with a target price of 58c, down from 60c. It's felt the current multiple discount should unwind on forthcoming organic newsflow, potential capital returns, and as investors focus on FY27 free cash flow (FCF).

Management plans to expand processing capacity at the KoTH operations to 7.5mtpa by late-2Q FY27, highlights the broker, which is expected to lift average production to approximately 215koz annually over the next five years.

Further upside to production forecasts may come from higher-grade ore sources, observes the analyst, with underground reserves at KoTH and Darlot due to be updated in 1Q FY26, along with other targets such as Severn and Rainbow.

Target price is $0.58 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.12
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WEB as Neutral (3) -

On first glance, Citi views Web Travel's FY25 results as broadly meeting expectations, with B2B earnings (EBITDA) at $139m versus consensus at $138m.

Total transaction value was lower by around –2%, offset by the take rate, which was higher by 23bps at 6.75% versus consensus at 6.52%.

The analyst notes expenses were slightly above expectations. Management offered no FY26 profit guidance, although the outlook is believed to be positive, with total transaction values for the first eight weeks up 37% against the FY26 consensus forecast of 21%.

Bookings in the first eight weeks rose 26%, the broker notes, compared to FY26 consensus growth of 18%, but earnings (EBITDA) margins are tracking lower at 44–47% versus FY26 consensus at around 48%.

Citi believes the year-to-date trading update infers earnings (EBITDA) are ahead of forecast by around 6%.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $0.87
If WEB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

In a first read, UBS assesses Web Travel's FY25 results as strong in the context of downgrades by other travel companies. EBITDA of $139m beat the broker's forecast of $138m.

The broker highlights the composition was strong with 2H revenue and total transaction value (TTV) materially higher, and year-to-date trading suggesting potential upside vs consensus for FY26.

Among the negatives was lower EBITDA margin but the broker is optimistic it would be offset by 25% growth in TTV in FY26.

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $1.47
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.61, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter revised its forecasts to account for the acquisition of e2open and a delay in the launch of the Container Transport Optimisation (CTO) product to 1H26.

The broker highlights the -US$2.1bn acquisition, fully funded by syndicated debt, is risky due to integration risk and higher leverage, but sees it as a growth opportunity. Also, the company has a good integration track record from previous acquisitions.

The impact of the CTO delay to FY26 forecasts is offset by the e2open acquisition, while the residual impact on the previous FY27 forecasts is more than made up by the full-year e2open benefits.

The net result is -13% downgrade to the FY25 EPS forecast, but a 0.3% lift in FY26 and an 8.5% increase in FY27.

Buy. Target rises to $122.50 from $112.50 as the broker lifted the valuation multiple to 90x from 87.5x.

Target price is $122.50 Current Price is $107.07 Difference: $15.43
If WTC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WTC as Add (1) -

Morgans explains WiseTech Global’s acquisition of E2Open will broaden the company’s scope of services to Beneficial Cargo Owners (importers/exporters that take ownership of goods), expanding beyond its core Freight Forwarder and Logistics operations via CargoWise.

The US$2.1bn acquisition will facilitate WiseTech’s expansion into becoming an operating system for global trade and logistics. E2Open has a network of around 500,000 Beneficial Cargo Owners and manages 18.5% of global ocean bookings, including around 18bn transactions per annum.

E2Open is anticipated to add circa US$600m–US$618m in revenue in FY26 and adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of around US$200m–US$210m, lifting WiseTech’s revenue and earnings by around 60% and 40%, respectively.

Morgans lifts FY26 earnings forecast by 24% and FY27 by around 36%, while EPS estimates fall -1% in FY26 due to debt consolidation and rise 11% in FY27.

Management also reiterated FY25 guidance and confirmed the launch of CTO. Target price lifts to $132.40 from $124.10. No change to Add rating.

Target price is $132.40 Current Price is $107.07 Difference: $25.33
If WTC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources