Australian Broker Call
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June 19, 2024
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BPT - | Beach Energy | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Macquarie | ||
| CUV - | Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals | Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| ILU - | Iluka Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
Overnight Price: $15.80
Bell Potter rates 360 as Buy (1) -
Life360 has now reached 2m global paying circles. Even though quarters one and two are traditionally not the strongest for paying circle growth, 100,000 customers have been added this quarter and will exceed the 96,000 added in Q1, notes Bell Potter.
The broker modestly upgrades its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts in 2024 and 2026, and forecasts a statutory earnings loss of -US$10.9m in 2024, which is well within the guidance range of -US$8-13m.
Due to the better-than-expected growth in paying circles, Bell Potter increases its valuation multiple, helping the target to $17.75, up from $17.00. Buy.
Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $1.95
If 360 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.22, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 35.37 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 79.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 49.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 130.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.61
Citi rates AWC as Neutral (3) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
The price of Thermal coal is expected to stay in the range of US$120/t to US$150/t.
Citi lifts Alumina Ltd earnings forecasts by 70% to 215% from FY24 to FY26 on the back of higher projected alumina prices.
The target price is raised 5c to $1.65 and the stock continues to be rated Neutral.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.61 Difference: $0.04
If AWC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 10.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 72.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 13.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.4, implying annual growth of 281.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.53
Bell Potter rates BPT as Buy (1) -
Following Beach Energy's strategic review, Bell Potter highlights cost reductions, more disciplined capital management and growth, and a refocus on the three core producing energy hubs - the Otway, Perth and Cooper basins.
Weaker-than-expected FY25 production guidance relates to natural field decline in the Western Flank (oil), explain the analysts, mostly offset by production growth in the Otways Basin.
This Otways growth is heavily dependent on the timing of the Waitsia Stage 2 ramp-up, points out the broker.
The Buy rating is maintained and the target reduced to $1.75 from $1.80.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates BPT as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi lowers its target for Beach Energy to $1.40 from $1.60 and downgrades to Sell from Neutral.
A strategic review revealed higher capex than the broker's cautious forecasts, largely in the Cooper Basin, but with no apparent requisite increase in medium-term production.
While the analysts highlight a strong balance sheet, they also posit the means to improve portfolio quality do not look like being implemented in the short-term.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BPT as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Macquarie lowers its target for Beach Energy by -21% to $1.55 to reflect lower production and increased capex following yesterday's strategic review update which included updated FY25 production guidance.
Management has now clearly ruled a line through the BassGas project and the Kupe development (New Zealand), suggests the broker, with major book impairments (-$365-400m combined) and reserve downgrades.
Macquarie downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform given the Waitsia start-up is still at least six months away, and peak free cash flow (FCF) is not expected until FY28 and FY29.
Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.02
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 20.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -
Highlights of Beach Energy's strategic review, according to UBS, included new targets to reduce sustaining capex by -20% and a -30% reduction in unit field operating costs.
These targets help to drive the company's free cash flow (FCF) breakeven oil price down to less than US$30/bbl, from FY25, from US$54/bbl in FY24, explains the broker.
More negatively, notes the analyst, management reported a net 2P reserve downgrade across all key assets and guided to FY25 production around -20% below the consensus estimate.
The Buy rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.75 from $1.85.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.22
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -9.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.6, implying annual growth of 41.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $14.52
Citi rates BXB as Sell (5) -
The Sell rating and target price of $14.25 are retained with Citi analysts not enthusiastic about press reports Brambles is looking to purchase Loscam's Asian operations, which includes a re-entry into China.
Chep China was break-even at best when Brambles decided to sell the business years ago, the analysts point out.
This deal won't derail the current share buyback, the analysts believe, though it may delay it or reduce it.
Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $14.52 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.43, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 46.35 cents and EPS of 81.87 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.12 cents and EPS of 95.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of 12.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CAR CAR GROUP LIMITED
Online media & mobile platforms
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Overnight Price: $35.33
Ord Minnett rates CAR as Lighten (4) -
Following another review of CAR Group's operation in Brazil, Ord Minnett (Morningstar) has increased its fair value estimate by 4% to $27. The review was triggered by Seek's ((SEK)) decision to exit the country.
The research seems to have increased confidence in CAR Group's successful strategy in the country, even though Seek couldn't make it work.
Given the upgraded valuation remains well below the present share price, it should not surprise the rating remains a negative Lighten. Morningstar tends to lag other analysts by more than simply one arm's length when it comes to valuing growth companies, with exception of WiseTech Global.
Earnings estimates have been upgraded.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $35.33 Difference: minus $8.33 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $34.18, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 62.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.7, implying annual growth of -53.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.2. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 74.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.6, implying annual growth of 15.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.42
Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
The broker adjusts the Champion Iron FY25 EBITDA earnings forecast by -15% due to lower iron ore prices.
Buy rating unchanged and the target remains at $8.60.
Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $6.42 Difference: $2.18
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 95.76 cents. |
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 98.02 cents. |
This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $293.87
Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie assumes approval for CSL competitor Argenx's Vyvgart Hytrulo (FcRn antagonist) in the treatment of Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP). The US FDA has set a PDUFA target action date of June 21 for the product.
The broker estimates FcRn antagonists could reduce Immunoglobulin (Ig) use by -2% per annum, though assumes around 75% of volume displaced by FcRn antagonists will be redeployed into other indications/geographies.
The Outperform rating and $330.00 target are retained for CSL.
Target price is $330.00 Current Price is $293.87 Difference: $36.13
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 414.70 cents and EPS of 928.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 923.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 401.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7. |
Forecast for FY25:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 509.22 cents and EPS of 1099.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1163.2, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 512.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CUV CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
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Overnight Price: $15.02
Ord Minnett rates CUV as Accumulate (2) -
The approval of a Phase 2a clinical trial to evaluate afamelanotide as a treatment for early-stage Parkinson has not triggered any adjustments to Ord Minnett's $18 fair value estimate or its Accumulate rating.
It's too early to start drawing conclusions, today's report states.
The broker highlights Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals is exploring additional indications for its current prime product, Scenesse, including vitiligo.
Ord Minnett sees the stock as undervalued, seeing the market as being too cautious on the speed and extent of the commercial rollout of Scenesse.
Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $15.02 Difference: $2.98
If CUV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 71.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6. |
Forecast for FY25:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 82.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of 8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $21.79
Citi rates FMG as Neutral (3) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
The analyst adjusts the Fortescue FY25 EBITDA forecast by -7% due to lower iron ore price estimates.
Neutral rating and target price of $23.50 unchanged.
Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $21.79 Difference: $1.71
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.03, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 297.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 306.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 214.97 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.2, implying annual growth of -17.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 187.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.37
Citi rates ILU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
Citi adjusts Iluka Resources FY25 EBITDA forecast by 9% on a lower exchange rate.
The stock's target is unchanged at $7.80 but the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, due to the -20% fall in the share price since May.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $1.43
If ILU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.92, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 66.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.1, implying annual growth of -42.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 83.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of 52.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.12
Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -
Shares in Arcadium Lithium continue to underperform relative to US peers and Citi analysts report there's a short seller's report in the public arena that is attracting investor's attention.
The broker has contacted management at the lithium company and, of course, all allegations have been flat out rejected. One of the more contentious issues seems to be water availability and intensity.
Citi analysts report they will receive more clarification on this matter.
The Buy rating and $9.40 target are maintained. Citi’s house view is for lithium prices to move sideways to lower over the next 3-6 months until supply cuts re-balance the market.
Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: $4.28
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.43, suggesting upside of 86.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -65.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.1. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 97.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.76
UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -
Metcash is due to report FY24 results on June 24, and UBS forecasts earnings (EBIT) of $489.3m while consensus sits at $488.4m.
The broker expects sales for the Independent Hardware Group (IHG) to decline in the 2H following moderation in the 3Q, reflective of an overall moderation in activity. Total Tools sales are expected to remain positive, supported by strength in the tools category.
The Buy rating and $4.25 target are maintained.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.49
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.3, implying annual growth of -0.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.66
Citi rates NHC as Neutral (3) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
Citi lifts the New Hope FY25 EBITDA forecast by 11% due to the exhange rate and post a slight tweak in cost assumptions.
Target price for New Hope and Neutral rating are unchanged.
Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.66 Difference: $0.19
If NHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.00, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of -50.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 77.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.2, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
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Overnight Price: $29.28
Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley recently noted the market under-appreciates Peter Alexander's growth potential as it is hidden within the greater conglomerate structure of Premier Investments.
In follow-up research, the broker points out the market has doubts around the imminent expansion into the UK because apparel is highly competitive, and Peter Alexander has little brand equity outside of A&NZ.
The analysts counter by explaining the UK nightwear market is highly fragmented with no category killer, suggesting ample room for a brand with a differentiated and fashion-focused product, like Peter Alexander.
The Overweight rating and $39.50 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line.
Target price is $39.50 Current Price is $29.28 Difference: $10.22
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 112.80 cents and EPS of 161.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.2, implying annual growth of -0.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY25:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 120.50 cents and EPS of 172.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 176.5, implying annual growth of 3.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $18.37
Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts are pleased QBE Insurance is commencing an orderly closure of its North America mid-market segment. As per Citi, the decision will see the insurer exiting a further -US$500m of premium.
Citi has been a critic of QBE's mid-market strategy for a long while and recently discussed how QBE's strategy "lacked key attributes that would enable it to succeed".
No double-guessing, the broker is pleased. The broker highlights QBE has reiterated its guidance for FY24 constant currency GWP growth in the mid-single digits and a FY24 COR of 93.5%.
Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $18.37 Difference: $1.63
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.80, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.62 cents and EPS of 181.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.57 cents and EPS of 189.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.7, implying annual growth of 2.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.25
Shaw and Partners rates RXM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -
Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Rex Minerals with a Buy rating and 86c price target.
The broker notes Rex Minerals is a copper and gold development company with a focus on its 100% owned Hillside Copper Gold Project in South Australia, which is essentially 'shovel ready' with all major government approvals for Stage 1.
The project has a resource of 337Mt at 0.56% copper and 0.14g/t gold for 1.9Mt of copper and 1.5Moz of gold, the broker highlights.
Shaw and Partners expects the $900m project to be partially debt and equity funded including a -40% sell down of Hillside for $150m, and the strategic partner contributing $180m. Rex Minerals is forecast to be accountable for -$270m.
Buy rating. High Risk. Target price 86c.
Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.61
If RXM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 244% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.36
Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
Thermal coal is expected to stay in the range of US$120/t to US$150/t.
Citi had only initiated coverage of Stanmore Resources with a Buy rating and $4 price target earlier this month, suggesting here's an opportunity opening up for investors with the recent sell-off in met coal prices (and related share prices) seen as overdone.
The new target is $3.95, on lower forecasts. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.36 Difference: $0.59
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.10 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.66
Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -
Citi has updated its commodity price projections.
The broker lowers the iron ore price by -4% for 2024 to US$110/t, and lifts alumina and aluminium by 12% and 8%, to US$430 and US$2488/t, respectively, for 2024.
For 2025, Citi lifts aluminium by 13% to US$2950/t and copper by 14% to US$12,000/t.
On balance, the broker views the higher upside for copper and uranium and the greatest downside risk to prices for manganese and alumina.
Thermal coal is expected to stay in the range of US$120/t to US$150/t.
Citi adjusts its Whitehaven Coal FY25 EBITDA forecast by 21% for the exchange rate.
The Whitehaven Coal target price is raised to $9.20 from $9 and the Buy rating is retained.
Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.66 Difference: $1.54
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 98.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.4, implying annual growth of -68.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 185.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 166.3, implying annual growth of 72.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.44
Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -
Apple has decided to shut Apple Pay Later for new customers and instead partner with buy now pay later (BNPL) providers and financial
institutions.
Citi views Apple's move as positive for Zip Co as it removes a competitive threat.
The broker sees plenty of growth potential in the near term in the US given BNPL is under-penetrated and Zip’s focus is on the near prime market.
Buy. Target $1.40.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY25:
Citi forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 130.0. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| 360 | Life360 | $15.79 | Bell Potter | 17.75 | 17.00 | 4.41% |
| AWC | Alumina Ltd | $1.60 | Citi | 1.65 | 1.30 | 26.92% |
| BPT | Beach Energy | $1.47 | Bell Potter | 1.75 | 1.80 | -2.78% |
| Citi | 1.40 | 1.60 | -12.50% | |||
| Macquarie | 1.55 | 1.95 | -20.51% | |||
| UBS | 1.75 | 1.85 | -5.41% | |||
| CAR | CAR Group | $35.34 | Ord Minnett | 27.00 | 26.00 | 3.85% |
| SMR | Stanmore Resources | $3.33 | Citi | 3.95 | 4.00 | -1.25% |
| WHC | Whitehaven Coal | $7.66 | Citi | 9.20 | 9.00 | 2.22% |
Summaries
| 360 | Life360 | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $15.80 |
| AWC | Alumina Ltd | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.61 |
| BPT | Beach Energy | Buy - Bell Potter | Overnight Price $1.53 |
| Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.53 | ||
| Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.53 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.53 | ||
| BXB | Brambles | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $14.52 |
| CAR | CAR Group | Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $35.33 |
| CIA | Champion Iron | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.42 |
| CSL | CSL | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $293.87 |
| CUV | Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $15.02 |
| FMG | Fortescue | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $21.79 |
| ILU | Iluka Resources | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.37 |
| LTM | Arcadium Lithium | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $5.12 |
| MTS | Metcash | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.76 |
| NHC | New Hope | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.66 |
| PMV | Premier Investments | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $29.28 |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.37 |
| RXM | Rex Minerals | Initiation of coverage with Buy - Shaw and Partners | Overnight Price $0.25 |
| SMR | Stanmore Resources | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $3.36 |
| WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $7.66 |
| ZIP | Zip Co | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $1.44 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 14 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 4 |
| 4. Reduce | 1 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Wednesday 19 June 2024
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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