Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates ABG as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie has a research restriction on Abacus Group.

Current Price is $1.20. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.25, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the REIT sector is an attractive investment for yield investors and has historically outperformed in the weeks prior to the ex-div date.

In the last 15 years, it has outperformed the S&P/ASX200 by 2.6% from 25 days before the ex-date, and underperformed by -0.6% the 25 days after. Arena REIT is among the stronger performers, rising 4.3%.

Outperform. Target price $3.96.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.21
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AUC as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans flags the upcoming Definitive Feasibility Study for the development of the Katanning Gold Project in WA, at 3.04Moz with a 10-year mine life at 136Kozpa of gold in June as a key event for Ausgold.

The broker notes the revised Preliminary Feasibility Study applied a gold price of $2,750/oz versus the current spot price of $5,000/oz, with the analyst emphasising the outlook for the Katanning Gold Project is "robust".

No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target price set at 94c.

Target price is $0.94 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.29
If AUC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Brazilian Rare Earths has shifted focus to commercialising hard rock ore at Monte Alto after recent studies showed a low-capex extraction route. The company will sell NdPr and SEGH, so the broker removed the other by-products from the forecasts.

The broker now expects monazite sand production to be delayed, forecasting first production in 2031 from 2028 previously.

Upcoming catalysts include further metallurgical testing at Monte Alto in the June quarter and a scoping study likely by the end of 2025.

Buy. Target cut to $6.30 from $7.00.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $4.31
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 217% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley's top pick in the Australian property space is Charter Hall, with expectations the group can advance assets under management to $89bn from $66.4bn currently.

This would assist with a corresponding growth in performance and transaction fees of $115m in that year, with a recovery in valuations/cap rates and capital flows.

The analyst notes if net transaction activity moves to the long-term historical average, this could add additional assets under management to around $89bn.

Morgan Stanley sees the decline in global rates and a trough in asset values as preceding multi-year growth in assets under management and earnings.

Overweight rating. Target price is raised to $22.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $18.17 Difference: $4.43
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting downside of -2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes the REIT sector is an attractive investment for yield investors and has historically outperformed in the weeks prior to the ex-div date.

In the last 15 years, it has outperformed the S&P/ASX200 by 2.6% from 25 days before the ex-date, and underperformed by -0.6% the 25 days after. Centuria Capital has been among the stronger performers, rising 3.1%.

Outperform. Target price $1.78.

Target price is $1.78 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.11
If CNI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNU as Outperform (1) -

Chorus published its annual disclosure accounts for the regulatory year ended December 2024, which showed its regulated asset base fell modestly to NZ$5.903bn from NZ$5.933bn. 

Macquarie notes the company modestly under-earned its maximum allowable revenue in 2024, but this was expected. The broker estimates this will result in a total PQP (price quality period) 1 wash-up balance of NZ$154m that will be carried forward to PQP2.

No change to forecasts.

Outperform. Target unchanged at NZ$9.83.

Current Price is $7.55. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Hold (3) -

Morgans cautions around the risks to Coronado Global Resources' valuation arising from potential liquidity issues, with the met coal market much weaker than expected.

During previous challenging market pricing conditions in late 2020 and mid-2021, the company raised US$280m in equity via two dilutive equity raisings, the analyst warns.

Morgans believes the most likely source of bridging liquidity in the current challenging cycle is additional and restructured debt refinancing.

At current cash burn rates, the analyst estimates liquidity will decline below the notional "comfort" level of $200m in 3Q 2025.

No change to Hold rating. Target price falls to 13c from 18c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.02
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.21, suggesting upside of 90.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DRO as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes the latest update on key metrics at DroneShield's AGM was positive, lifting confidence in its FY26 revenue growth forecasts. 

Pipeline accelerated to $2.34bn in May from $1.6bn in April, cash improved to $213.4m on May 20 from $197m on April 14, revenue increased to $100.4m from $94.4m disclosed on April 14. The company increased capacity and headcount.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.115 (current price is over target).
If DRO meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FND as Add (1) -

Findi reported FY25 revenue of $75m, which was above guidance, with earnings (EBITDA) at the midpoint of guidance, Morgans details.

The broker interprets the earnings results as mixed, with other income boosting the top line. Positively, the operating cash flow was robust, and the India IPO is noted as proceeding as expected.

Findi has a net cash position of $30m, with management offering a non-fiscal outlook, and FY26 revenue and earnings guidance flagged to be announced in July.

Morgans lowers EPS estimates by over -10% for FY26/FY27, and target price falls to $7.55 from $8.35. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $2.95
If FND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FND as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett describes Findi's FY25 results as solid, with revenue above the top end of the guidance and EBITDA in line. Operating cash flow of $27.5m beat the broker's $22.9m forecasts.

Focus shifts to FY26, which the broker reckons will be a transformative year for the company. The analyst forecasts 160% revenue growth, driven by acquisitions and recent contract wins.

The company is expected to progress IPO in India in 2H26, and provide FY26 guidance in July. No change to forecasts.

Buy. Target rises to $11.39 from $11.05 on valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $11.39 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $6.79
If FND meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 148% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FPH as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's FY25 revenue was 1% above consensus and net profit beat by 5%, driven by higher gross margin, lower opex and forex benefit.

FY26 net profit guidance was -3% below consensus, with revenue dependent mainly on the severity of the virus season.

The main news was the assumed US tariff impact on NZ-made hospital products is now expected to be lower than expected at just 10%, which led to Citi upgrading FY26 EPS by 8%.

The tariff will, however, delay margin recovery by a year and the broker expects 65% gross margin in FY28.

Target rises to NZ$35.50 from NZ$32.00 on EPS revisions and valuation roll-forward. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Current Price is $33.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's FY25 revenue beat Macquarie's forecast by 1%, with hospital revenue 2% ahead and homecare coming in line.

The company's FY26 operating revenue guidance of NZ$2.15-2.25bn was largely in line with the broker's forecast of NZ$2.20bn.

The broker notes the company expects to achieve 65% gross margin target by FY28, which was higher than its previous forecast.

EPS forecast for FY26 lifted by 2% and by 1% for FY27. Outperform. Target price NZ$39.30.

Current Price is $33.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FPH as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley raises its price target for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare to NZ$38.90 from NZ$36.70 ($35.90 from $34) and upgrades to Overweight from Equal-weight.

Attractive medium-to-long-term earnings growth is expected to be supported by solid revenue expansion and margin recovery.

The broker notes FY25 results were followed by an around -4% share price decline due to softer FY26 guidance. 

Regardless, the broker points to new applications revenue rising by 18% in constant currency and anaesthesia penetration continuing to scale.

Gross margin improved 181bps to 62.9% in FY25, with further gains forecast in FY26, despite expected headwinds from tariffs and currency, note the analysts. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $33.93. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Add (1) -

Morgans maintains its Add rating for Generation Development and lifts the target price to $6.04 from $5.25, acknowledging the share price appreciation in the last 12 months reflects a re-rating based on improved fundamentals.

The broker applauds the acquisitions of Lonsec and Evidentia, which offer the group greater exposure to the SMA sector alongside the growth pathway of investment bond sales.

No change to earnings estimates from the analyst.

Target price is $6.04 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: $0.5
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IDX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has lifted its target price for Integral Diagnostics to $3.65 from $3.59, having shifted its FY25 estimates to a statutory basis.

Revenue is projected to grow 34.4% to $631.2m, supported by merger synergies and cost savings, although Medicare data for April revealed weaker diagnostic service volumes, note the analysts.

Adjusted operating profit is forecast at $27.5m, up 52.1% year-on-year and marginally below consensus, with Bell Potter noting $100m of additional debt and revised interest assumptions.

Bell Potter anticipates growth will benefit from scale efficiencies, AI initiatives and regulatory tailwinds including MRI deregulation.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $1.23
If IDX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.14, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes ikeGPS Group's full FY25 results showed a net loss of -NZ$12m missed its estimate of -NZ$10.8m, but management's outlook for FY26 was positive.

The company expects over 35% subscription revenue growth in FY26 versus the broker's 35% growth forecast. The company also expressed optimism for EBITDA break-even on a run-rate basis within the second half of FY26.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to $1.17 from $0.93 on valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $1.17 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.25
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JDO as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley anticipates management at Judo Capital will prioritise discussion of strategy and the business model over near-term earnings at tomorrow’s investor day.

Although the recent third-quarter update highlighted concerns around short-term earnings drivers, the broker remains confident management can deliver on its scale-based metrics over the medium term.

The Overweight rating and $2.10 target are maintained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.675
If JDO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.92, suggesting upside of 37.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley adds Lynas Rare Earths to the Asia Pacific ex-Japan focus list, with the analyst pointing to the potential ability to add further production with spare cracking and leaching capacity after building the new Kalgoorlie facility.

The company is planning to achieve 12ktpa of NdPr, which is well discounted in the market, although Lynas remains one of only two global rare earth supply producers outside of China.

Overweight rated. Target price $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $7.89 Difference: $2.11
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.14, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings secured the long-awaited $157m Hope Downs contract and this, together with a previously announced contract, takes the current order book to around $5.7bn, according to Citi's estimate.

The order book estimate, which excludes any smaller contracts, stands at 1.7x Citi's FY26 revenue forecast of $3.39bn.

The broker believes the trend of delays to large contracts is likely to reverse in the near term, raising confidence in the company's ability to grow its order book.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.65.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.85
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates QBE as Add (1) -

Morgans believes QBE Insurance has performed well as confirmed by the 2024 earnings report, with EPS growth of 31% and a return on equity of 18%.

The analyst continues to envisage further improvements from the North American business and, with a robust balance sheet, believes the group is trading too "cheaply".

Morgans maintains an Add rating and lifts the target price to $26.76 from $24.07.

Target price is $26.76 Current Price is $23.16 Difference: $3.6
If QBE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.12, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SCG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes the REIT sector is an attractive investment for yield investors and has historically outperformed in the weeks prior to the ex-div date.

In the last 15 years, it has outperformed the S&P/ASX200 by 2.6% from 25 days before the ex-date, and underperformed by -0.6% the 25 days after.

Neutral rating for Scentre Group. Target price $3.24.

Target price is $3.24 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SCG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.77, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes the REIT sector is an attractive investment for yield investors and has historically outperformed in the weeks prior to the ex-div date.

In the last 15 years, it has outperformed the S&P/ASX200 by 2.6% from 25 days before the ex-date, and underperformed by -0.6% the 25 days after.

Neutral rating for Stockland. Target price $5.39.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $5.46 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.64, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TRJ as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter observes short-term margin pressure for Trajan Group from US tariff changes and reduced government funding. 

Trajan’s operational update reflects broader industry challenges with structural issues across the analytical laboratory sector, notes the broker.

Management has responded by reallocating manufacturing across regions to reduce exposure to trade disruptions and bolster resilience, a move Bell Potter views positively. 

FY25 revenue guidance remains in the range of $160-165m and in line with the broker’s estimate of $162.5m.

The analysts retain a Buy rating and maintain a target price of $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.79 Difference: $0.71
If TRJ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources