Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For 29Metals, the target falls by -6% to 47c due to a roll-forward of the broker's financial model and a change to assumed equity funding assumptions. The Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.02
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminum prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The Overweight rating and 55c target for 29Metals are unchanged after the broker raises copper and zinc earnings forecasts but also adjusts the Capricorn Copper risk weighting to 50% from 100%. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.45 Difference: $0.1
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A11 as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Atlantic Lithium, the target falls to 42c from 46c and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.04
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Core Lithium, the target falls to 8c from 16c and rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Variances in South American lithium carbonate prices and the Australian dollar present key risks to the broker's earnings forecast.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: minus $0.006 (current price is over target).
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Aeris Resources (with copper and gold exposure), the target falls by -13% to 26c on a financial model roll forward. Neutral.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.01
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.26, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Aurelia Metals, the target price rises to 27c from 25c largely due to higher gold price forecasts. Outperform.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.08
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts maintain a Sell rating for ANZ Group Holdings, with a price target at $24.50.

Despite the bank's strategic efforts to revitalise mortgage lending and improve transaction times, the broker notes ANZ's mortgage lending growth is slowing and converging back to the market and major bank peers.

Citi argues ANZ has been significantly impacted by the use of more costly funding compared to peers, which has taken a toll on the bank’s NIM and revenue growth.

Financial forecasts remain unchanged, projecting core EPS of 225c in 2024, down from 236.6c in 2023. The expected share price return is -16.1%, with a dividend yield of 5.7%.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $28.94 Difference: minus $4.44 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $27.59, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARX as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter concludes FY25 for Aroa Biosurgery is anticipated to be a "transformational year", with the company expected to be profitable and generate positive free cash flows, assisted by positive revenue and earnings guidance from FY24.

The broker views the outlook for the company's key products, Myriad and Symphony positively, both are positioned to significantly impact revenues, with the latter’s trial results expected in the 2H25.

Bell Potter points to the competitive pricing strategy and potential for substantial market penetration for Aroa Biosurgery.

The Buy rating and 90c target are maintained. 

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.285
If ARX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reconsiders the valuation for Austal in light of the company's diversification efforts, winning multiple US programs, and the potential material impact of the Australian Strategic Shipbuilding award.

The company has a record order book of $12.7bn and management confirmed they have received takeover interest from multiple parties, including a bid from Hanwha Ocean at $2.825 per share, Macquarie highlights.

There are no changes to the analyst's earnings estimates.

Outperform rating retained and the target raised 21% to $2.55 with the broker ascribing a higher valuation, in line with global peers.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.15
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.83, suggesting upside of 17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AWC as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Alumina Ltd rises to $1.60 from $1.30 on higher alumina, aluminium and bauxite price forecasts. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.50, suggesting downside of -11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGA as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes the FY25 farmgate milk prices for Bega Cheese with an average opening price of  $8.05/kg, a -13% decline on the previous corresponding period.

This represents a potential $40m boost to FY25 earnings estimates and a decline in cost of goods sold, states the broker.

Farmgate milk prices should remain aligned with international commodity export prices due to reduced dairy processing capacity.

Despite these positives, UBS warns of potential risks, such as increased competition among processors and pressure on branded business earnings and adjusts EPS estimates by 4% for FY25.

UBS raises the target price to $4.50 from $4.10 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $0.22
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Bellevue Gold earnings forecasts by 10% for FY24 and 24% for FY25.

Target price is lifted to $2.10 from $2. The rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.295
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The broker prefers South32 in the larger cap miners, buy prefers BHP Group over Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

Macquarie lowers earnings estimates by -2% in FY24 and -7% in FY25 for BHP Group.

The Neutral rating and $43 target are retained.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $42.78 Difference: $0.22
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.33, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for BHP Group eases to $46.65 from $46.75. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $46.65 Current Price is $42.78 Difference: $3.87
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.33, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BOE as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Boss Energy rises to $4.65 from $4.60 on higher uranium price forecasts for FY25 and FY26, but the broker's ramp-up assumption at Alta Mesa has been slowed. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.48
If BOE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 37.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Beach Energy's strategic review revealed reserve downgrades of -19MMboe contributing to around -$1.1b of pretax impairments this year, explains Morgan Stanley. This includes three assets now considered non-core (Bass Basin, Kupe in NZ, and Otway in South Australia).

While management's FY25 guidance has less production and more capex than the broker anticipated, the analysts suggest new guidance is manageable.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained and the target falls to $1.49 from $1.68. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $1.49 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.78, suggesting upside of 19.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS attended an investor relations meeting, pre the black out period in the run up to the FY24 CommBank results on August 14.

The key takeaways for the broker were ongoing competition on net interest margins; the market is too pessimistic on the outlook for bad and doubtful debts and credit growth for small and medium enterprises is holding up better than expected.

Management stressed the aim to write business above the cost of capital and defend market share via customer quality focus.

There are no changes to the UBS earnings forecasts.

Sell rating retained with the stock trading at an all-time-high valuation, stresses the broker.

Target price unchanged at $107.

Target price is $107.00 Current Price is $127.68 Difference: minus $20.68 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $93.98, suggesting downside of -26.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett reminds investors City Chic Collective is going through intense restructuring, including the sale of assets, lowering operational costs and changing its capital structure.

In the present environment, suggests the broker, execution risk remains high, as consumer spending looks fragile and trading conditions remain uncertain.

Assuming all goes to plan, the broker can see a path towards regaining profitability. Target price has tumbled to 17c from 50c. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: minus $0.125 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 300.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts the Champion Iron EPS forecasts by -28% in FY25 and -55% in FY26.

The target price is lowered to $7.50 from $7.90. Outperform rating.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $1.1
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Hold (3) -

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's program of divesting assets continues with management announcing it has unconditional agreement for a total of -$684m in assets, including -$145m already announced at the interim results.

Ord Minnett points out divestmented assets include the Agri-logistics portfolio, which shall require FIRB approval.

If all this is settled, the balance sheet should only be geared at 36% (look-through) and Ord Minnett feels a lot more comfortable with this number.

Target price gains 2% to $3.62. Hold. Estimates have been lowered.

Target price is $3.62 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.15
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.86, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Capricorn Metals earnings forecasts by 5% for FY24 and 54% for FY25.

Target price raised to $5.10 from $4.70. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.92 Difference: $0.18
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Carnaby Resources, the target falls by -12% to $1.00 due to the broker altering equity funding assumptions (increased dilution), offset by stronger gold price forecasts. Outperform.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.44
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts Coronado Global Resources EPS forecasts by -44% in FY24 and -3% in FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price raised to $2 from $1.80.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.8
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Capstone Copper, the broker's target increases to $12.80 from $12.60 driven by a decrease in the assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

Capstone Copper is the broker's key pick in the copper space.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.01 Difference: $1.79
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Core Lithium, the target falls to 9c from 15c and the Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.007
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DEG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker retains the De Grey Mining earnings forecasts.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price lifted to $1.80 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.72
If DEG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 76.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts maintain a Neutral rating for Deterra Royalties, lowering the price target to $4.35 from $5.20.

The broker explains the downgrade reflects the complexity added by the acquisition of Trident Royalties, which includes 21 new royalty streams.

FY25 dividend payout ratio is forecast to drop to 70%, reducing dividends by 25%. The broker revised FY25 EPS up by 7.6% to 33c, while FY26 EPS is expected to decrease by -5.1% to 26c.

Dividend payout forecasts have been lowered as a result of the acquisition, which is expected to weigh on dividend payouts in the initial years ahead.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: $0.29
If DRR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts the Deterra Royalties EPS forecasts by -1% for Fy24 and -8% for FY25.

The Neutral rating is unchanged. Target price is lowered to $4 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DRR as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

Morgan Stanley downgrades its rating for Deterra Royalties to Equal-weight from Overweight Equal-weight on both valuation grounds and after taking into account the recent proposed acquisition of Trident Royalties.

The target falls to $3.70 from $5.60 after the broker assigns a greater weighting to its bear case scenario for the stock due to the proposed acquisition. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $4.06 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Evolution Mining earnings forecasts by 8% for FY24 and 25% for FY25.

Target price raised to $4.30 from $4 and the rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.57
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Evolution Mining rises to $4.15 from $3.90. Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.42
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS have downgraded Evolution Mining to a Neutral rating from Buy, reducing the target price to $3.80 from $4.45.

The broker points to the higher-than-expected capital expenditure guidance for the Cowal project, leading to increased all-in-sustaining-costs of around 23% to $1,900/oz and all in costs rising by 50% to circa $2,740/oz.

The Northparkes project maintains a low-capital expenditure outlook, the broker notes.

Despite generating free cash flow and rapidly de-gearing, UBS sees better opportunities elsewhere in the sector. 

UBS adjusts the FY24 EPS forecast by -4% and -12% for FY25 EPS estimates.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.73 Difference: $0.07
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker prefers South32 in the larger cap miners.

Macquarie reduces the Fortescue earnings estimates by -1% in FY24 and -15% in FY25.

Underperform rating unchanged and the target revised to $12.50 from $13.50.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $21.71 Difference: minus $9.21 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.79, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Underweight (5) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Fortescue eases to $18.70 from $18.85. Underweight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $21.71 Difference: minus $3.01 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.79, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Global Lithium Resources, the target falls to 30c from 66c and the rating is unchanged at Neutral. Macquarie believes the company will need to defer its project.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.025
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Galan Lithium, the target price falls by -20% to 20c and the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.03
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Genesis Minerals earnings forecasts by 13% in FY24 and 90% in FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price raises to $2.10 from $2.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: $0.21
If GMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.10, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Gold Road Resources earnings forecasts by 29% for 2024 and 78% for 2025.

Target price lifts to $1.90 from $1.70 and the rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.17
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 27.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HSN as Buy (1) -

UBS addresses the record Logo wins for Hansen Technologies in FY24 with the company's competitive positioning in the Nordic Utility market, benefiting from structural market shifts towards smart-meter rollouts.

Due to a more conservative outlook on cash EBITDA margins, from anticipated costs to support market growth, the broker has lowered the FY25 EPS estimate by -6%.

The target is reduced to $6.20 from $6.50 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $4.40 Difference: $1.8
If HSN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.58, suggesting upside of 52.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For IGO, the target falls to $6.00 from $7.60 and the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.42
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.72, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Underweight (5) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for IGO falls to $5.05 from $6.05 due to lower FY25/26 earnings forecasts, which are impacted by lower lithium prices, despite higher forecast FY24 earnings from higher base metal (copper, nickel, gold) and spodumene prices.

Underweight. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $5.05 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.72, suggesting upside of 17.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker tweaks Iluka Resources earnings forecasts by -1% in FY24 and -1% in FY25.

Target price is adjusted to $7 from $7.40. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.55
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Iluka Resources falls to $6.70 from $7.00 due to a higher forecast for the Australian dollar. Equal-weight rating. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $6.70 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.25
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.74, suggesting upside of 21.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The broker highlights the Jupiter Mines share price has rallied off the back of strong manganese prices, which are expected to remain strong over the remainder of the year. The yield isa,lso considered attractive.

The Outperform rating is maintained and the target rises to 40c from 35c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KMD as Equal-weight (3) -

A 2H trading update by KMD Brands has revealed the fourth earnings downgrade in the last year, notes Morgan Stanley, with material misses for sales and earnings (EBITDA) versus consensus forecasts.

Winter sales at Kathmandu are down -11.5% on the previous corresponding period and wholesale sales at Ripcurl and Oboz are weak, explains the broker.

While FY24 guidance for NZ$50m was -28% below the consensus expectation, the broker points to a resilient gross margin and tightly controlled operating costs.

Equal-weight. Target 55c. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.19
If KMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.53, suggesting upside of 55.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Arcadium Lithium, the target falls to $6.60 from $9.40 and the Outperform rating is maintained. Funding assumptions to develop both the Kathleen Valley Spodumene and Lithium Hydroxide projects are the key risk to the broker's forecasts.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.97 Difference: $1.63
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.50, suggesting upside of 73.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Liontown Resources, the target falls to $1.05 from $1.30 and the Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.115
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.29, suggesting upside of 41.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Lynas Rare Earths falls to $4.85 from $5.35 on lower June quarter and FY25/26 rare earths price (NdPr) forecasts.The Underweight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $6.07 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts the Mount Gibson Iron EPS forecasts by -1% in FY24 and -15% in FY25.

Target price of 50c and Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.08
If MGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts, and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Mineral Resources, heightened financial leverage, along with higher operationally levered iron ore operations, leads to a $62 target, down from $75. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $6.24
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.14, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Mineral Resources falls to $79.00 from $85.50 as lower lithium price forecasts more than outweigh higher iron ore price forecasts for the remainder of FY24.

Overweight rating. Attractive sector view.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $55.76 Difference: $23.24
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $71.14, suggesting upside of 29.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MTS as Neutral (3) -

Upon inital assessment, Citi believes Metcash's FY24 EBIT beat its own forecast, and consensus, by some 2% with Food and Liquor doing the heavy lifting.

The final dividend of 8.5c falls short of the 10c expected, but also: sales growth excluding the freshly acquired Superior Foods was flat for the first seven weeks of the fresh financial year, and that's weaker than anticipated.

Hardware sales are down excluding the benefit of acquisitions, the analysts note. All in all, a challenging start into FY25 it seems, Citi concludes.

The $4.00 target price is maintained, as is the Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.78 Difference: $0.22
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.12, suggesting upside of 11.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Newmont Corp earnings forecasts by 28% for 2024 and 105% for 2025.

Target priced is raised to $83 from $71 and the Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $83.00 Current Price is $64.68 Difference: $18.32
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHC as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts the New Hope EPS forecasts by 4% in FY24 and 61% in FY25.

New Hope is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. The target price is lowered to $4 from $4.10.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Nickel Industries the broker's target decreases by -8% to $1.10 driven by a weaker nickel price outlook in 2025.

Nickel Industries is Macquarie's key pick in the nickel space.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.375
If NIC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NIC as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's Overweight rating and 95c target for Nickel Industries are maintained. Industry View: Attractive. 

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.83 Difference: $0.125
If NIC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NST as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Northern Star Resources earnings by 10% in FY24 and 30% in FY25.

Outperform rating retained and the target price raised to $18 from $17.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $4.29
If NST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Northern Star Resources rises to $14.90 from $14.50 on higher FY24-26 gold price forecasts. Equal-weight. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $1.19
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.18, suggesting upside of 20.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Paladin Energy falls to $16.65 from $17.45. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $17.45 Current Price is $13.24 Difference: $4.21
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.31, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Piedmont Lithium, the target falls to 25c from 36c after the broker cuts earnings significantly to losses until 2027 before profitability is restored. The broker's target price methodology is changed to a 100% net asset valuation (NAV). The outperform rating is kept.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.1
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Pilbara Minerals, the target falls by -23% to $3.25 and the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.14
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PLS as Underweight (5) -

Initial feasibilty study results for Pilbara Minerals' Pilgangoora expansion (P2000) are better than expected by Morgan Stanley, benefiting from an expanded project footprint.

Capex intensity was a 12.5% beat compared to the broker's forecast, but the analysts caution there is an around 30% accuracy margin for the company's estimates.

The P2000 operation is solely underpinned by existing ore reserves, highlights Morgan Stanley, for a mine life of 23 years.

Separately, Morgan Stanley adjusts commodity price forecasts.

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Pilbara Minerals falls to $2.75 from $3.35 on lower lithium price forecasts. Underweight. Target $3.35. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Hold (3) -

Morgans analysts have  maintained their Hold rating for Pilbara Minerals while lowering the price target to $4.65 from $5.00 as weaker spodumene prices are impacting the near-term earnings outlook.

The broker does note robust demand fundamentals continue to support long-term growth.

The company’s strategic partnerships and expansion projects, including the Ngungaju Plant improvement and the P680 Project, are expected to enhance production capacity and cost efficiency.

Financial forecasts have been adjusted, with FY24 EBITDA revised down to $1.3bn from $1.5bn due to lower realised prices. The broker remains positive on Pilbara's long-term outlook citing a strong balance sheet and growth initiatives.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $1.54
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PLS as Accumulate (2) -

It had been a long while since we heard from Ord Minnett (Morningstar) on Pilbara Minerals. Today's update shows an Accumulate rating and $4 price target.

The broker highlights Pilbara Minerals is making a bold move, doubling down on its capacity to more than 2m tonnes per annum through the P2000 project, translating into an estimated 18 months of work ahead before a final investment decision can be made at a projected
capital expenditure of -$1.2bn, excluding mine development and infrastructure costs.

Ord Minnett highlights management estimates a net present value (NPV) of $2.6bn, or approximately 86c per share, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 55% at a long-term spodumene price forecast of US$1,500/dmt cif.

Ord Minnett's valuation estimate remains unchanged at $3.99 with the broker adding the outlook for the lithium market remains clouded in uncertainty.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: $0.89
If PLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PLS as Sell (5) -

Pilbara Minerals released  a Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) for potential expansion of Pilgangoora to 2mtpa of spodumene production, which would elevate the project to the world's largest spodumene mine against its rival Greensbushes, UBS highlights.

The broker believes the higher mining rates would reduce the mine life to what the analyst still considers as a long 23-years with a FY28 ramp up.

The final investment decision is expected in the December quarter of 2025.

UBS retains a Sell rating and $2.70 target price.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.11 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.51, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Patriot Battery Metals, the target falls to $1.50 from $1.90 and the Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.93
If PMT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Perseus Mining earnings forecasts by 6% for FY24 and 29% for FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price raised to $3 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.46 Difference: $0.54
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RED as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts Red 5 earnings forecasts by 7% by FY24 and 112% for FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target raised to 55c from 50c.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.13
If RED meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker prefers South32 in the larger cap miners.

Macquarie reduces earnings estimates for Rio Tinto on the back of lower iron ore prices.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target adjusted to $119 from $123.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $120.25 Difference: minus $1.25 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Rio Tinto rises to $142 from $137.50 due to the broker's higher copper price forecast. Overweight retained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $142.00 Current Price is $120.25 Difference: $21.75
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.17, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Following on from the latest surmount-OSA study results as presented by Eli Lilly over the weekend, Citi analysts report the data suggests there is a risk that a portion of patients with mild OSA symptoms only might drop their CPAPs over time.

Clearly, this is impacting on ResMed's share price in today's session.

The broker also highlights combination therapy of CPAP and terzepatide was numerically better on all counts compared to trizepatide alone, as expected, and Terzepatide alone may not lead to immediate improvement in OSA symptoms.

Buy. Target $36.00.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.96 Difference: $4.04
If RMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.73, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RMD as Overweight (1) -

More detailed results have been released from Eli Lilly's P3 Surmount OSA study evaluating tirzepatide for treatment of moderate/severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA).

Key new details are the secondary outcomes as it relates to "disease resolution", explains Morgan Stanley.

Study 1 (no PAP therapy) and Study 2 (PAP therapy) showed that 43.0% and 51.5% of participants, respectively, treated with tirzepatide at the highest dose met the criteria for "disease resolution".

This data places more emphasis on the ultimate validation of the "funnel argument", notes Morgan Stanley, in order for the GLP1 category to not impact the total addressable market (TAM) for continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) machines.

Overweight rating. Target $33.70. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $33.70 Current Price is $31.96 Difference: $1.74
If RMD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.73, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Ramelius Resources earnings forecasts by 5% for FY24 and 23% for FY25.

Target price is lifted to $2.10 from $2. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.14
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Regis Resources earnings forecasts by 49% for FY24 and 55% for FY25.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price raised to $2.90 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $1.08
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The target for Regis Resources falls to $2.10 from $2.50 after the broker assumes a lower valuation multiple to allow for the company's lower quality assets (an around six-year mine life, and McPhillamy requiring further approvals before proceeding).

The Overweight rating. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.28
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.32, suggesting upside of 29.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the Resolute Mining earnings forecasts by 26% for 2024 and 62% for 2025.

Outperform rating maintained. Target price raised to 70c from 60c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.17
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RXM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Rex Minerals (copper and gold exposure), the Outperform rating and 40c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.12
If RXM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The broker prefers South32 in the larger cap miners and raises earnings estimates by 21% in FY24 and 49% in FY25.

An Outperform rating is retained and the target lifted to $4.50 from $4.25.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.78
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's rating for South32 is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight on valuation, while the target rises to $3.80 from $3.35. Industry view: Attractive. 

South32 forecasts are mainly impacted by forecast price changes for aluminium, alumina and manganese, notes Morgan Stanley.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.08
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts the St. Barbara earnings forecasts by 5% for FY24 and 18% for FY25.

Target price lifted to 28c from 25c and the rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.07
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

For Sandfire Resources, the broker's EPS forecasts lift by 2-6% over FY24-FY28 buoyed by 5-11% upgrades in the silver price outlook during this period, and a 9% lift in the broker's long-term real silver price outlook.

Overall, the 4% increase in target price to $11.20 is driven by the broker's earnings upgrades from higher silver, zinc, and lead price forecasts.

The Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $10.80 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: $1.9
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Sandfire Resources slips to $8.25 from $8.40 despite higher copper price forecasts due to a change in bull/base/bear case weightings. The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view is Attractive. 

Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: minus $0.65 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal.

The forecast price declines for lithium have a material impact on the broker's earnings forecasts and valuation for stocks under coverage in the sector.

For Sayona Mining, the Neutral rating and 4c target are maintained after the broker changes its target price methodology to a 100% net asset valuation (NAV).

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.005
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SYR as Equal-weight (3) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Syrah Resources falls to 40c from 50c on lower graphite price forecasts. The Equal-weight rating is retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.035
If SYR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.80, suggesting upside of 128.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Morgans analysts have updated their outlook on Treasury Wine Estates, maintaining an Add rating and raising the price target to $15.03 from $14.03.

The broker highlights the company's re-affirmation of FY24 earnings guidance, with the expectation of accelerating earnings growth in FY25 due to greater US Luxury supply, the DAOU acquisition, plus the removal of China’s tariffs.

The key growth drivers are Penfolds and the Treasury Americas Luxury portfolio, with further updates on the future operating model for Treasury Premium Brands expected in August.

The broker is optimistic about double-digit earnings growth over the medium term. Now the three-year growth targets are set, the broker suggests it's all about execution from here onwards.

Target price is $15.03 Current Price is $12.63 Difference: $2.4
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WAF as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts West African Resources earnings forecasts by 18% for 2024 and 79% for 2025.

Outperform rating unchanged. Target price raised to $2 from $1.60.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.495
If WAF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal, with a neutral view on gold.

The broker adjusts Westgold Resources earnings forecasts by 13% for FY24 and 77% for FY24.

Target price lifted to $2.80 from $2.20. The rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: $0.26
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has updated commodity forecasts and retains an overweight view on aluminum, nickel and met coal with an underweight view of iron ore, lithium and thermal coal. 

The broker adjusts the Whitehaven Coal EPS forecasts by -14% for FY24 and 9% for FY25.

Outperform and $9.00 target retained.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: $1.05
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Into the 3Q of 2024, Morgan Stanley is forecasting metallurgical coal supply tightness and demand support from India, and downside for lithium pricing on oversupply concerns.

Iron ore prices are forecast to rebound into the 4Q and gold should experience ongoing 2H support, buoyed by central bank buying and falling real yields, explains the broker.

Copper demand continues to accelerate driven by grid spend and the case for aluminium prices is compelling as cost curves rise, explain the analysts.

The broker's target for Whitehaven Coal rises to $9.75 from $9.65 on higher thermal coal price forecasts over FY25/26. Overweight rating. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $7.95 Difference: $1.8
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights Worley re-confirmed the FY24 outlook at the recent May Investor Day which included 7.5%-8% margin goals, ex-procurement.

The broker forecasts FY25 total revenue growth of 6%, a decline from FY23 and FY24 growth of  21% and 8%, respectively.

FY25 earnings before interest and tax margins are expected to increase by 40 basis points due to higher gross margins in the backlog and via improved operational leverage, the analyst notes.

Macquarie also points to the company's ongoing shift towards traditional energy (oil) and transitional energy (gas) investments, and away from sustainability.

Outperform rating and $18.10 target unchanged.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $3.85
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.27, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources