Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley attended a construction site tour of AGL Energy's Bayswater and Liddell power stations, and noted improving thermal performance and some benefit from recent market volatility.

The broker notes Coal Equivalent Availability is 83.4% FY26 to-date, progressing toward the FY27 88% thermal target. Management foreshadowed an FY27 cost-out package (due Feb 2026), estimated at around $60m pre-tax.

Kwinana Swift Gas 2 (220MW) awaits FID with $185m turbine cost and $63m p.a. capacity revenue, while AGL’s 20% stake in Kaluza adds upside via growth in its global subscriptions.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $9.66. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $9.01 Difference: $0.65
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.97, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BML as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes Boab Metals has secured up to $236m in project debt from Merricks Capital and Davidson Kempner.  Combined with a recent $50m equity raise and $50m Trafigura pre-payment, this means Sorby Hills project is now fully funded.

A final investment decision is expected this quarter after capex is finalised, factoring in savings from using the Degrussa plant.

The broker highlights Sorby Hills is a highly advanced ASX silver project, and the share could see more upside as production nears. A near-term positive catalyst could come from a lower capex estimate.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 77c.

Target price is $0.77 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.365
If BML meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BRE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes many investors are excited about the developments in rare earths but overlook the supply glut that may be created by governments lending without rigorous analysis of the impact.

Outside of China, led by the US, there are numerous new magnet plants starting up, underpinned by government loans.

Putting aside a US$110/kilogram neodymium Pr price floor, which the broker considers would be difficult to sustain, forecast REO prices are reduced while estimates for heavy REOs move from scarcity to glut by 2030.

No change to Brazilian Rare Earths' Speculative Buy and $6.30 target price.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $1.97
If BRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BRG as Buy (1) -

Following a review of retail sector post-AGM updates, Morgans notes discretionary retail sales growth has eased, but demand and household spending remain solid.

The broker observes consumer outlook has softened after the RBA held rates and near-term cut hopes faded, but notes Morgans' economist expects two 25bp cuts ahead.

Retailer optimism has cooled since August, yet confidence is rising and positive for the first time in 4 years, supporting a stronger Black Friday/Christmas period, with sales expected to grow 4% vs last year. Best opportunities lie in retailers with clear competitive advantages, expanding store footprints, and strong, resilient margins.

Breville Group is among the top picks. Buy with unchanged target of $36.05.

FNArena believes, contrary to what is stated in this report, that Morgans' house view has now shifted towards two rate hikes expected from the RBA.

Target price is $36.05 Current Price is $30.98 Difference: $5.07
If BRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.38, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Downer EDI has flagged earnings growth in the topline along with margin improvement, targeting revenue growth of 4-5% over FY26-30.

Macquarie believes this expresses confidence in the outlook, with the company retaining credibility having delivered margin targets in the last few years. Utilities represent the single largest contributor to the targets with the company retaining a strong market position in power.

The broker forecasts EPS growth of 9.8% over the next three years and a fully franked dividend yield of 3.6%. Target is lifted to $8.50 from $7.65 and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $0.79
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI has reiterated FY26 guidance at its investor briefing and is targeting sustainable revenue and margin growth out to FY30, including a four-year revenue growth rate of 4-5% and EBITA margin of "towards 6%".

UBS calculates the implied FY30 ambition is around 20% ahead of consensus estimates.

Revenue growth is expected to be supported by population, the energy transition, defence expenditure, ageing water infrastructure and a cyclical recovery in roads maintenance and NZ economy.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target to $8.00 from $7.50.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.71 Difference: $0.29
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 3.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DPM as Outperform (1) -

DPM Metals has the outcome of the Coka Rakita feasibility study which highlights gold production for the life of mine of 1.34m ounces over 10 years. Average annual gold production is expected to be 148,000 ounces.

A maiden mineral resource for Rakita North, Dumitru Potok and Frasen is to be finalised by the end of the year.

Macquarie considers the stock an attractive proposition, screening well for value and offering both free cash flow and growth strategically positioned in the emerging Balkan mining region. Outperform rating and $49 target.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $41.00 Difference: $8
If DPM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 has guided to additional costs in order to support growth, ahead of expectations, reflecting further investment in new capabilities. FY27 funds under administration target of $148-162bn were retained.

Macquarie is comfortable with this, given net inflows, and particularly if markets remain stable. The broker reiterates a Neutral rating as, despite a strong outlook, the PE relative multiple of 3.4x is challenging.

Target is raised to $104.80 from $104.20.

Target price is $104.80 Current Price is $104.38 Difference: $0.42
If HUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.91, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUB as Accumulate (2) -

Hub24 provided a briefing on its strategy, continuing to deliver enhancements to the ecosystem around its core platform, and guiding to expense growth of 18-20% in FY26.

Ord Minnett reduces forecasts slightly to allow for higher cost growth, noting this appears to be driven by a robust revenue environment as well as investments in new solutions.

Margins are still expected to improve in FY26, and the aspirational target of mid-to high 40% remains in place. Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $112 from $113.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $104.38 Difference: $7.62
If HUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.91, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Hub24 is building an ecosystem, which UBS expects will assist in extending the business lead versus peers, even though direct benefits are as yet unclear

Costs are accelerating to deliver on the strategy, although margin expansion is still expected over time. Cost growth guidance for FY26 has been raised to 18-20%.

The broker assesses the long-term platform growth drivers are intact, yet with the stock trading at 62x PE, a Neutral rating is retained. Target is reduced to $110 from $117.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $104.38 Difference: $5.62
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.91, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HVN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS downgrades Harvey Norman to Neutral from Buy as the PE multiple upside is reduced because of the re-rating of the stock and the comparable de-rating of peer JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)).

The consumer outlook is strong, franchisee sales are robust, and the company's category mix is an advantage, yet there is now a fear of higher interest rates. Harvey Norman is more exposed vs any other in its coverage, the broker asserts.

The risk/reward is now more balanced than attractive as a result. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $7.75.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $0.53
If HVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.48, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Buy (1) -

UBS assesses Insurance Australia Group should be better positioned than Suncorp ((SUN)) in terms of comparable natural perils costs. This is given Suncorp's revelation, in the year-to-date, catastrophe costs are the highest in over a decade.

Insurance Australia Group has a more modest Queensland market share. That said, with the recent acquisition of RACQI, UBS believes estimating the impact of catastrophes requires segmenting its pre-existing business from this Queensland operation.

The broker retains a preference for IAG and maintains a Buy rating, trimming the target to $9.25 from $9.65.

Target price is $9.25 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $1.52
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.03, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ILU as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett believes many investors are excited about the developments in rare earths but overlook the supply glut that may be created by governments lending without rigorous analysis of the impact.

Outside of China, led by the US, there are numerous new magnet plants starting up, underpinned by government loans.

Putting aside a US$110/kilogram neodymium Pr price floor, which the broker considers would be difficult to sustain, forecast REO prices are reduced while estimates for heavy REOs move from scarcity to glut by 2030.

No change to the Iluka Resources' $6 target or Sell rating.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If ILU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.49, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LOV as Buy (1) -

Following a review of retail sector post-AGM updates, Morgans notes discretionary retail sales growth has eased, but demand and household spending remain solid.

The broker observes consumer outlook has softened after the RBA held rates and near-term cut hopes faded, but notes Morgans' economist expects two 25bp cuts ahead.

Retailer optimism has cooled since August, yet confidence is rising and positive for the first time in 4 years, supporting a stronger Black Friday/Christmas period, with sales expected to grow 4% vs last year. Best opportunities lie in retailers with clear competitive advantages, expanding store footprints, and strong, resilient margins.

Lovisa Holdings is among the top picks. Buy with unchanged target of $40.

FNArena believes, contrary to what is stated in this report, that Morgans' house view has now shifted towards two rate hikes expected from the RBA.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $31.93 Difference: $8.07
If LOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.38, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett believes many investors are excited about the developments in rare earths but overlook the supply glut that may be created by governments lending without rigorous analysis of the impact.

Outside of China, led by the US, there are numerous new magnet plants starting up, underpinned by government loans.

Putting aside a US$110/kilogram neodymium Pr price floor, which the broker considers would be difficult to sustain, forecast REO prices are reduced while estimates for heavy REOs move from scarcity to glut by 2030.

Ord Minnett retains a Sell rating for Lynas Rare Earths and reduces the target to $10.50 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $14.45 Difference: minus $3.95 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.96, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Speculative Hold (3) -

At the AGM update, Matrix Composites & Engineering pointed to $70m of FY26 secured revenue to date, including $65m of contracted subsea work. Bell Potter estimates other segments are tracking around $5-6m in 1H FY26.

The broker notes 1H26 project phasing has hurt profits more than expected, leading to guidance for a 1H EBITDA loss vs its estimate for $1.8m profit. EBITDA is weighted to 2H and expected to turn positive for FY26 overall.

The company highlighted its drilling and SURF quotation pipeline is strong and could add to the FY26 orderbook if converted.

In other updates, a $7.5m note was refinanced, and the size increased on favourable interest rate terms. FY26 EBITDA forecast downgraded by -19% on lower margins and higher opex, with FY27-28 unchanged.

Speculative Hold. Target trimmed to 26c from 28c.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.03
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Minerals 260 is set to deliver a resource update for its Bullabulling gold project in early December 2025, and as early as next week.

The current resource is 60.3Mt at 1.2g/t Au for 2.3Moz (61% Indicated), and new drilling has extended and improved continuity at depth and along strike, likely upgrading confidence.

Higher recoveries and a stronger gold price should allow lower pit cut-offs, capturing more mineralisation and driving substantial resource growth, the broker highlights.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 57c.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.23
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.52, suggesting upside of 53.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Monadelphous Group and NRW Holdings ((NWH)) recruitment levels have "surged" in October, and the trend confirms an acceleration in project awards and confidence in both companies to grow capacity.

With ongoing opportunities across most of the commodity complex, the analyst anticipates recruitment levels will remain robust in the near term.

Contractors are viewed as being in an upgrade cycle.

Monadelphous is rated Buy with a $28.75 target.

Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $27.10 Difference: $1.65
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NCK as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Nick Scali with a Buy rating and a target price of $27.

The company is a major Australian mid-to-upper market furniture retailer, expanding globally through the UK. Management guided to strong 1H26 A&NZ revenue growth of 7-9% and group net profit of $33-35m, and the broker's forecast is near mid-point.

The UK is the biggest growth lever, with an estimated 60-store long-term potential, three times the current footprint, and gaining early product traction.

The broker reckons the company's stable core share should help weather macro softness, while Plush expansion in Australia and a bigger UK runway provide strong long-term growth drivers.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.38 Difference: $3.62
If NCK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NSR as Buy (1) -

National Storage REIT confirmed media speculation of an offer, explaining a consortium consisting of Brookfield and GIC has made a non-binding, conditional offer at $2.86/share.

The price is adjustable down by the expected 6c 1H26 distribution. UBS notes the implied price is a 24% premium to the undisturbed spot price, 19% premium to post-FY25 VWAP, and 9% above Jun-25 NTA, but reckons it should be higher.

The REIT has granted due diligence and exclusivity until 7 December to try to sign an SIA, with no matching rights and exclusivity ending if a superior bid appears.

The broker reckons the wording in the release leaves room for a competing bid and won't be surprised if that happens. However, the REIT's prior talks and strong GIC relationship suggest to the analyst the deal should proceed around the current offer.

The broker's Buy rating and $2.57 target are under review.

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If NSR meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting downside of -4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NTU as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett believes many investors are excited about the developments in rare earths but overlook the supply glut that may be created by governments lending without rigorous analysis of the impact.

Outside of China, led by the US, there are numerous new magnet plants starting up, underpinned by government loans.

Putting aside a US$110/kilogram neodymium Pr price floor, which the broker considers would be difficult to sustain, forecast REO prices are reduced while estimates for heavy REOs move from scarcity to glut by 2030.

No change in Speculative Buy rating for Northern Minerals while the target edges down to 5c from 7c.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.018
If NTU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi attributes NRW Holdings' guidance upgrade to strong FY26 revenue coverage, elevated tender activity and a dry start to the year supporting Mining margins.

Management now expects FY26 revenue of circa $4.1bn and underlying earnings (EBITA) of $260-265m.

The broker notes (the recent acquisition) Fredon’s contribution is building through higher earnings expectations, with Engineering, Maintenance and Industrial Service (EMIT) division forecasts supported by rising tender momentum.

The dry-weather operating backdrop is viewed as underpinning prudent guidance and reinforcing confidence in FY26 earnings, according to the analysts.

Citi raises its target to $5.95 from $5.50 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.65
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWH as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Monadelphous Group ((MND)) and NRW Holdings recruitment levels have "surged" in October, and the trend confirms an acceleration in project awards and confidence in both companies to grow capacity.

With ongoing opportunities across most of the commodity complex, the analyst anticipates recruitment levels will remain robust in the near term.

Contractors are viewed as being in an upgrade cycle.

NRW is Buy rated with $5.95.

Target price is $5.95 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.65
If NWH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -

NRW Holdings has guided to FY26 EBITA of $260-265m, amid upside risk because of strong operating momentum. Mining operations are tracking ahead of internal expectations with no material wet weather impact to date.

The company has had a strong start with Fredon, which is expected to hit earn-out targets in 2025. Macquarie envisages upside risk to consensus forecasts for this business in FY27 and beyond.

The broker finds the valuation attractive compared with the broader peer group and retains an Outperform rating. Target rises to $6.05 from $4.45, underpinned by earnings and an increase in the valuation multiple.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.75
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPE as Buy (1) -

PeopleIN has divested Techforce for $23m, which represents a more than 100% return on the equity consideration, allowing for dividends. Proceeds will be used for debt repayment.

Ord Minnett notes first quarter EBITDA declined on comparables by -12% although grew by 4% relative to the prior quarter.

The broker continues to expect improvement in the industrial, professional and community health segments amid a slower performance in the RWM brand. Buy rating. Target rises to $1.19 from $1.03.

Target price is $1.19 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.27
If PPE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

Citi sees QBE Insurance's 3Q trading update as "largely solid" despite softer premium growth and a higher combined operating ratio (COR), with valuation support from strong return on equity (ROI) and stable margins.

Premium dynamics and ex-CAT attritional losses are viewed by the broker as the main debate given claims inflation in Accident & Health (A&H) and recent large losses.

FY26 guidance is considered achievable by the analysts, with repricing, easing loss incidence, and lower expenses expected to support COR.

Citi retains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $23.70 from $25.60.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $4.65
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.60, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie asserts QBE Insurance is one of many insurance companies now emphasising volumes rather than price. When the premium rate cycle slows, changes in this metric are no longer considered appropriate to judge the performance of these businesses, in the broker's view.

QBE now risks investors putting it in the "cyclical bucket" until the macro environment improves, and Macquarie does not believe this is a constructive approach.

The broker points out current valuations are at a discount to global peers and the business is now exiting the North American catastrophe season. The newly announced $450m on-market buyback, to commence in December, underpins the broker's Outperform rating.

Target is raised to $23.90 from $23.50.

Target price is $23.90 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $4.85
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.60, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance's $450m on-market share buyback from surplus capital was in line with Morgan Stanley's expectation and widely expected, and seen as supportive for the stock.

The broker reckons the buyback is welcome but investors want more confidence via clearer reserve-release guidance, lower CAT costs, tighter reinsurance, and better product-level disclosure.

The insurer guided to FY26 combined ratio of around 92.5%, in line with consensus but slightly worse than some expectations. The broker expects the company to explain why it’s not improving despite supportive rates and run-off tailwinds.

FY25 GWP is tracking 6% y/y to Sep-25, with mid-single-digit guidance reaffirmed but FY26 guidance was not provided. 

Overweight. Target unchanged at $23.50. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $4.45
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.60, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

QBE Insurance has flagged a further slowdown in premium rate increases in the second half FY25 so far, reiterating full-year guidance. Initial guidance for the 2026 combined operating ratio has been set at 92.5% which Ord Minnett considers is optimistic.

The broker notes some may suggest catastrophe provisions are too high, as no major hurricanes landed in the US this season. However, relying on the weather and continued reserve releases to make guidance for FY26 appears to be "a big ask", in the broker's view.

The broker raises FY25 EPS estimates by 3.6% to incorporate better investment returns while trimming FY26 and FY027 slightly. Hold rating retained, and target is reduced to $22.00 from $24.30.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $2.95
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.60, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

UBS observes QBE Insurance's 3Q25 update showed FY25 earnings and FY26 outlook on track despite softer premium rates, with weaker underlying loss ratio offset by benign CATs.

Management expects underwriting to improve in FY26 via A&H repricing, cost efficiencies, and reinsurance savings. The broker believes FY26 earnings are well-supported by FY26 COR guidance of around 92.5% which supports about 16% ROE.

Expectations of mid-single-digit growth, steady yields, and a $450m buyback are also supportive of the FY26 outlook, the broker adds.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 0.7% on higher investment income and FY26 by 0.2% on improved COR. Buy retained with trimmed target of $24.15 from $24.70.

Target price is $24.15 Current Price is $19.05 Difference: $5.1
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.60, suggesting upside of 22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGP as Buy (1) -

Citi notes APRA’s announcement introducing new restrictions on banks to cap lending with net debt-to-income ratios above 6x to 20% of total lending.

APRA indicated the measure is pre-emptive, noting only a modest increase in high-debt to income ratio (DTI) lending in recent months but signaling a desire to contain risk earlier rather than later.

The broker remain comfortable with its Buy ratings on Stockland and Mirvac Group ((MGR)) and land lease developers Ingenia Communities ((INA)) and Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)).

Buy retained for Stockland. Target unchanged at $6.90.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.09 Difference: $0.81
If SGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights Suncorp Group's early perils cost overrun, with FY26 earnings pressure expected despite some 2H offset.

Perils exposure versus Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) is viewed by the broker as a key weakness, with Suncorp's allowance proving less protective in adverse weather conditions.

Margin forecasts and dividends are trimmed as higher claims costs and potential reinsurance implications limit near-term upside, according to the analysts.

Citi retains a Neutral rating and lowers its target to $19.25 from $22.10.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: $1.04
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.63, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Suncorp Group's update on its natural hazards costs associated with hailstorms in south-east Queensland and northern NSW has taken the total for the fiscal year to date to $1.15-28bn. This is around $330m above 1H allowances, with five more weeks to go.

Ord Minnett also points out the business has no reinsurance policies on events costing under $150m, which add up, and is waiting for more favourable reinsurance pricing before taking further policies.

The broker downgrades FY26 EPS estimate by -12% and retains a Hold rating. Target is cut to $20.50 from $22.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: $2.29
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.63, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Buy (1) -

Suncorp Group provided a CAT costs update, showing the total is running at $1.15-1.275bn FY26 year-to-date, well above $885m 1H allowance with a month to go.

UBS notes the update includes the recent South-East Queensland storm event, where the company has already received over 10,000 claims.

The broker now expects 1H26 CAT costs to reach $1.46bn, resulting in a -30.7% fall in the FY26 EPS forecast. 

Buy. Target drops to $22.00 from $23.15.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.21 Difference: $3.79
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.63, suggesting upside of 23.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Citi sees near-term confidence in Telix Pharmaceuticals supported by Pixclara (brain cancer imaging agent) resubmission and early ProstACT Global safety data, with both events expected in 2H25.

The broker views the 30-patient safety run-in as a favourable design element that should clarify toxicity risks for TLX591.

Progress on these catalysts is considered sufficient for sentiment to improve even without best-case outcomes.

The broker views broader pipeline progress as encouraging, including potential Zircaix indication expansion and BiPASS trial optionality. The trial aims to evaluate Illuccix and Gozellix in a broader diagnostic setting for metastatic prostate cancer.

Citi retains a Buy, High Risk rating and target of $34. The broker has an upside catalyst watch expiring 18 December.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $15.30 Difference: $18.7
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 78.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWR as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie suggests Tower is still delivering rare organic growth, but the late-cycle pricing backdrop and rising catastrophe/expense risk prompt a downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Levers are being pulled that are "slightly more risky" with the business guiding to a NZ$45m large event allowance and the broker suspects this will "land at NZ$55m".

FY25 results met guidance and Tower is guiding to more than 7.5% compound growth to FY28, well ahead of forecasts. Macquarie states, "we need to see it to believe it."

Target is raised to NZ$1.80 from NZ$1.70.

Current Price is $1.71. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Following a review of retail sector post-AGM updates, Morgans notes discretionary retail sales growth has eased, but demand and household spending remain solid.

The broker observes consumer outlook has softened after the RBA held rates and near-term cut hopes faded, but notes Morgans' economist expects two 25bp cuts ahead.

Retailer optimism has cooled since August, yet confidence is rising and positive for the first time in 4 years, supporting a stronger Black Friday/Christmas period, with sales expected to grow 4% vs last year. Best opportunities lie in retailers with clear competitive advantages, expanding store footprints, and strong, resilient margins.

Universal Store is among the top picks. Buy with unchanged target of $10.50.

FNArena believes, contrary to what is stated in this report, that Morgans' house view has now shifted towards two rate hikes expected from the RBA.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.61 Difference: $1.89
If UNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.56, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VEE as Hold (3) -

Veem has updated on first half revenue guidance, being $24-26m, which at the mid point would be the lowest half-year revenue recorded since the first half of FY20, Ord Minnett observes. A net loss of -$2-3bn is expected.

The company may be anticipating a strong second half but it will be difficult to recover sufficiently to meet prior full year forecasts and the broker downgrades its forecast for FY26 EBITDA by -43% to $6.5m.

Target is lowered to $1.20 from $1.75 and a Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.045
If VEE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WEB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Web Travel's growth momentum remains materially stronger than competitor Hotelbeds, with 1H26 TTV and revenue up 22% and 20%, respectively, against Hotelbeds’ softer trends evident in FY25 results.

The broker highlights Web Travel experienced far less revenue/total transaction value (TTV) margin compression, with part of Hotelbeds’ weakness linked to ancillary categories the company does not offer.

Hotelbeds’ FY26 guidance for TTV growth of 12-18% and revenue growth of 2-7% is seen as lagging UBS’s expectations for Web Travel of around 20% for both.

Competitive risk may rise as Hotelbeds appears willing to use pricing to re-accelerate volumes, caution the analysts.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $6.15 target for Web Travel.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: $1.57
If WEB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.96, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources