Australian Broker Call
Produced and copyrighted by at www.fnarena.com
February 03, 2023
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
PNI - | Pinnacle Investment Management | Upgrade to Add from Hold | Morgans |
VUK - | Virgin Money UK | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Overnight Price: $6.92
Credit Suisse rates A2M as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse sticks to the view that a2 Milk Co is expanding its market share in China, as its product resonates with consumers and on the back of a significant increase in marketing spending.
On a bird's eye view of the sector in China, Credit Suisse's updated modeling projects infant formula industry volumes declining -5%-7% per annum 2022-2025 inclusive.
Another observation made is post the recent rally, the shares are now higher valued than global luxury goods peers, as well as ASX-listed China-focused companies.
Neutral. Target $5.30. No changes have been made to forecasts.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $6.92 Difference: minus $1.62 (current price is over target).
If A2M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.10, suggesting downside of -26.2% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.2. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.7, implying annual growth of 34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates APA as Neutral (3) -
FY23 is another transition year, posit analysts at Macquarie in their general update on APA Group ahead of the release of interim financials, scheduled for February 23.
The broker sticks with a Neutral rating, acknowledging there should be improvement in H2 and 2024, but prefers to remain cautious due to structural headwinds.
APA Group is transitioning away from gas, with Macquarie suggesting this process might take 3-5 years to materialise. Target $10.13. Small adjustments have been made to forecasts.
Target price is $10.13 Current Price is $10.67 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.82, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 42.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.50 cents and EPS of 34.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 15.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.05
Ord Minnett rates BOQ as Accumulate (2) -
After a review of its investment thesis for Bank of Queensland, Ord Minnett maintains its Accumulate rating and 8.80 target.
The target jumps from the early-December level of $7.60 in the FNArena database as the broker is now whitelabeling research from Morningstar instead of JP Morgan.
The broker feels risks for the bank are being overstated by the market concerning the quality of the loan book, the outlook for margins and strategic uncertainty arising from a change in leadership.
Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $1.75
If BOQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in August.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 85.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of 17.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 90.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.5, implying annual growth of -4.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BST BEST & LESS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $1.93
Macquarie rates BST as Neutral (3) -
Best & Less's trading update revealed H1 earnings -30% lower than last year, despite last year's numbers were heavily impacted by lockdowns, points out Macquarie.
The broker remains cautious. From here onwards the year-on-year comparisons are not getting any easier, and the customer base looks "vulnerable".
All in all, the market update missed Macquarie's estimates and thus forecasts have been reduced. Target falls to $2 from $2.20. Neutral.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.075
If BST meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CCX CITY CHIC COLLECTIVE LIMITED
Apparel & Footwear
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $0.62
Macquarie rates CCX as Neutral (3) -
City Chic Collective's trading update had already been flagged, and this time came out in line with Macquarie's estimates. Positives were smaller inventory on the back of serious promotion efforts and also a lower debt facility.
Management did confirm the FY23 balance sheet outlook, the broker highlights.
Macquarie is expecting a greater FY23 loss as promotions continue, but lower gearing helps set a higher valuation and thus the price target moves to $0.61 from $0.42. Neutral.
The broker emphasises City Chic Collective is facing ongoing headwinds in the near- to medium-term.
Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: minus $0.005 (current price is over target).
If CCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.20
Macquarie rates CNB as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie seems pleased with Carnaby Resources' latest update on drilling results, with high grades at Mount Hope ("continue to impress"), ongoing results for prospect Burke and Wills and a maiden resource upcoming for Greater Duchess.
Macquarie believes the maiden resource for Greater Duchess could be a positive catalyst in Q2.
On the back of share price strength, the broker has reduced dilution estimates from the next round of capital raisings. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.30. Outperform.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.5
If CNB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.60 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.76
Credit Suisse rates COF as Outperform (1) -
Centuria Office REIT's interim market update pleased analysts at Credit Suisse. As expected, rising interest costs are starting to impact, but FY23 guidance has been left intact.
Metrics relating to portfolio fundamentals (occupancy, leasing spreads, incentives) came with a positive skew with asset values holding relatively firm, the analysts comment.
Credit Suisse highlights its own valuation calculation assumes a -8% further decline in the investment portfolio valuation.
Target loses -1c to $1.89. Outperform.
Target price is $1.89 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.13
If COF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY23:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -20.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates COF as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley adjusts its forecasts for Centuria Office REIT to reflect 1H results.
The target rises to $1.70 from $1.50 after the broker reduces its cap rate expansion assumption and allows for higher occupancy. Rent growth is raised to 2-2.5% per year from 1.5% to reflect more stable occupancy.
The analyst forecasts 15.8cpu for funds from operations (FFO) for FY23, in line with management guidance.
The Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -20.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates COF as Neutral (3) -
Better than anticipated rental income assisted in a 1H23 earnings beat for Centuria Office REIT, according to UBS.
Management retained earnings guidance for FY23 of 15.8c, due to the potential deferral of some 5% of the portfolio under heads of agreement, notes the analyst.
Centuria Office REIT generated a better result from leasing, with the group portfolio reflecting an occupancy rate of 96.4%. up from 94.7%,
Adjusting for a change in the cap rate, the NAV generated price target is raised to $1.75 from $1.70.
With potential macro headwinds from more subdued leasing demand and increased supply, UBS remains cautious on the office sector and retains a Neutral rating.
Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If COF meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.89, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of -20.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CSL CSL LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $304.58
Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Overweight (1) -
Indications are the immunoglobulin (Ig) market is strengthening, according to Morgan Stanley.
The broker notes core sales of Ig rose by 23% quarter-to-date for Japanese peer Takeda, while albumin (the most abundant protein in plasma) also rose by 47%.
The analyst expects CSL's plasma collections and Ig revenue growth will rise by 23% in FY23, which is around 3% ahead of the top end of Takeda's guidance.
The Overweight rating and $354 target are unchanged.
Target price is $354.00 Current Price is $304.58 Difference: $49.42
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $329.03, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 444.32 cents and EPS of 755.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 756.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 360.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.5. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 615.98 cents and EPS of 962.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 957.6, implying annual growth of 26.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 463.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.83
Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Equal-weight (3) -
Following a comparison of underlying insurance margin drivers, Morgan Stanley believes Overweight-rated Suncorp Group ((SUN)) will outperform Insurance Australia Group over the next two years.
While Insurance Australia Group should fare better on reserving, the broker expects Suncorp to perform better on cost savings and CAT costs and retentions.
In addition, Suncorp renewed its reinsurance and its quota share agreement on more favorable terms.
The Equal-weight rating and $4.80 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.5, implying annual growth of 130.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.2, implying annual growth of 14.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JHG JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC
Wealth Management & Investments
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $36.74
Citi rates JHG as Sell (5) -
Citi believes the 4Q result for Janus Henderson was of low quality, with the main drivers of a significant beat (versus both the broker's and consensus forecasts) due to performance fees and a slightly lower rate of tax.
While performance fees were $28m better in FY22 than management's guidance, it's hard to rely on the consistency of these fees, points out the broker.
Net outflows were of an even greater concern to the analyst, as well as a decline in near-term investment performance. The Sell rating is retained, while the target rises to $34.50 from $31.00.
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $36.74 Difference: minus $2.24 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.50, suggesting downside of -19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 230.81 cents and EPS of 314.34 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 325.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 236.58 cents and EPS of 331.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.8, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates JHG as Equal-weight (3) -
Janus Henderson's 4Q adjusted EPS beat the forecasts of both Morgan Stanley and consensus by 48%, with a 40% beat for operating income on improved performance fees. Other revenues and fee rate metrics were considered further positives, offset by higher costs.
Assets under management (AUM) were 1% better than forecast though the analyst is concerned by elevated institutional outflows that have continued for several years, despite being a management area of focus.
Morgan Stanley maintains its Equal-Weight rating and $32.50 target price. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $36.74 Difference: minus $4.24 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.50, suggesting downside of -19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 346.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 325.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 285.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 283.8, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.11
Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -
In a modestly disappointing update, according to Ord Minnett, Newcrest Mining's 2Q gold sales were -11% shy of the broker's forecast due to lower production at Lihir and Brucejack, partially offset by Cadia.
While management maintained FY23 gold production guidance, the analyst decides to modestly lower its FY23 forecast and expects a lower ramp-up in production at Lihir.
The broker maintains its Accumulate rating and points out Newcrest shares are trading at an around -25% discount to fair value, probably due to fears of rising interest rates. The $31 target is unchanged.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $23.11 Difference: $7.89
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.73, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 103.87 cents and EPS of 260.39 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 219.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.6, implying annual growth of -5.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PNI PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $9.39
Morgans rates PNI as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -
Second quarter net flows for Pinnacle Investment Management showed some improvement on the first quarter. While flows remain uncertain, upcoming leverage is expected after investment by several affiliates in longer-term initiatives.
The broker upgrades its rating to Add from Hold, while the target slips to $10.75 from $10.95. Medium-term earnings (FY25) are expected to step-up on improving flows and performance fees, as well as operating leverage on improved funds under management (FUM).
The investment management firm reported profit for the 2Q of $30.5m, missing the $32.9m expected by the analyst. While group funds FUM closed flat over six months, it's thought the composition improved.
Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $1.36
If PNI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of -10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates PNI as Hold (3) -
Ord Minnett lowers its underlying EPS forecasts by -9-13% over the forecast period for Pinnacle Investment Management after 1H results. Near-term growth is expected to be more subdued given current volatility in equity markets.
Profit for the 1H of $30.5m was a -3.2% miss versus the broker's estimate on lower performance fees for Affiliates, and higher investment in affiliate-level growth initiatives. The 15.6cps fully franked interim dividend was also less than expected.
The analyst incorporates into the outlook lower-than-expected flows and Affiliate profitability, and also updates funds under management (FUM) estimates for the latest market values. As a result of these changes, the target falls to $9.50 from $11.50. Hold.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: $0.11
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 31.50 cents and EPS of 36.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of -10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.50 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates PNI as Sell (5) -
Pinnacle Investment Management reported an -11% 1H23 earnings miss compared to consensus and -3% compared to UBS forecasts.
Notably, the affiliate fee margins came under pressure, dropping to 52.8bps, versus the broker's 57.6bps expectation, as the fees from Metrics were not booked in this period.
UBS highlights that the business model of a more diversified stable of strategies to accommodate differing market conditions is proving more cyclical than anticipated when it comes to generating performance fees, realising fee out-performance in robust markets and fee under-performance during weak markets.
EPS forecasts are upgraded 3% for FY23 on the expectation of a stronger 2H23 and remain unchanged for FY24.
Sell rating retained due to the premium valuation and the target raised to $8.60 from $8.50.
Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $9.39 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If PNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.98, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of -10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9. |
Forecast for FY24:
UBS forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.1, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PPM PEPPER MONEY LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $1.56
Citi rates PPM as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
Non-bank lenders in Australia look "cheap", comment analysts at Citi. It doesn't automatically mean here are investment opportunities on display.
Citi thinks wholesale costs need to improve, in a general sense, for the sector to re-rate. Another vital ingredient might be a general return of risk-on sentiment.
Citi remains cautious for the time being, but considers a better environment might become apparent later in the year. The broker has initiated coverage of Pepper Money with a Neutral rating and $1.60 price target.
Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.04
If PPM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.77, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.35 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.1, implying annual growth of -4.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.18 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $125.43
Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
Prior to February 22, when the company is scheduled to release 2022 financials, Macquarie forecasts Rio Tinto's result will be more than -35% below the numbers achieved in the previous period.
Softer prices for key commodities will be outweighing the company's on-the-ground performance, the broker suggests. Underlying earnings are estimated at US$13.7bn, a fall of -36% year-on-year.
Final dividend is estimated to come out as US$1.87 per share. Macquarie retains a positive view also because there's renewed momentum in the iron ore market.
Target lifts to $121 from $115. Neutral. UK target is GBP59 (up 4%).
Target price is $121.00 Current Price is $125.43 Difference: minus $4.43 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $116.57, suggesting downside of -5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 655.37 cents and EPS of 1243.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1192.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 638.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 788.23 cents and EPS of 1180.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 1079.5, implying annual growth of -9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 664.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.32
Citi rates RMC as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -
Non-bank lenders in Australia look "cheap", comment analysts at Citi. It doesn't automatically mean here are investment opportunities on display.
Citi thinks wholesale costs need to improve, in a general sense, for the sector to re-rate. Another vital ingredient might be a general return of risk-on sentiment.
Citi remains cautious for the time being, but considers a better environment might become apparent later in the year. The broker has initiated coverage of Resimac Group with a Sell rating and $1.20 price target.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.32 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If RMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Citi forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.72
Macquarie rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
Looking ahead to the release of interim financials, scheduled to be released on February 16, Macquarie anticipates weaker results from South32 on softer commodity prices and higher costs.
The broker suggests investors are looking for new catalysts. The interim dividend is forecast at US$4.5c with the added observation forecasts elsewhere range from US2.9c to US5.7c per share.
Target $4.60. Neutral.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.72 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.86 cents and EPS of 37.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.48 cents and EPS of 48.62 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.2, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.31
Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -
Following a comparison of underlying insurance margin drivers, Morgan Stanley believes Suncorp Group will outperform Insurance Australia Group (Equal-weight) over the next two years.
While Insurance Australia Group should fare better on reserving, the broker expects Suncorp to perform better on cost savings and CAT costs and retentions.
In addition, Suncorp renewed its reinsurance and its quota share agreement on more favorable terms.
The Overweight rating and $14.50 target are retained. Industry View: In-Line.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.31 Difference: $2.19
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.08, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.1, implying annual growth of 78.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY24:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 125.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.3, implying annual growth of 6.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE
Overnight Price: $14.52
Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -
When Treasury Wine Estates reports 1H results on February 15, Macquarie forecast $1.4bn of revenue, $311m of earnings (EBITS) and $197m of profit (UNPAT).
The broker observes global demand for wine remains strong, with a shift in location to On premise from Off Premise and points out transport costs have begun to ease.
Minor changes are made to the analyst's forecasts. The Outperform rating is unchanged and a $15.50 target is set.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $14.52 Difference: $0.98
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.57, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.70 cents and EPS of 53.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.6, implying annual growth of 49.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1. |
Forecast for FY24:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.10 cents and EPS of 60.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.39
Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -
Ventia Services reports its full year results on February 24, and Macquarie believes prospectus 2022 profit (NPATA) guidance of $172m is on-track.
The analyst feels the focus will be upon the outlook and predicts 11% EPS growth for FY23 largely driven via increased revenues. Margins are expected to be stable at around 8% of earnings (EBITDA).
The $3 target and Outperform rating are unchanged.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $0.61
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.02, suggesting upside of 24.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 20.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.23
Ord Minnett rates VUK as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett assesses a solid 1Q (September year end) and believes management at Virgin Money UK will reduce operating costs and add business customers in the greater London market.
The broker's rating is increased to Accumulate from Hold, while the target falls by -2.5% to $3.80.
The 1Q revealed a 3bps improvement to 1.89% in net interest margin (NIM) thanks to the higher interest rate environment and the analyst expects 1.90% will be achieved for FY23. Management is guiding to a range of 1.85-1.90%.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.57
If VUK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.03 cents and EPS of 99.81 cents. |
Forecast for FY24:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.03 cents and EPS of 97.16 cents. |
This company reports in GBP. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
BOQ | Bank of Queensland | $7.19 | Ord Minnett | 8.80 | 7.60 | 15.79% |
BST | Best & Less | $1.93 | Macquarie | 2.00 | 2.20 | -9.09% |
CCX | City Chic Collective | $0.63 | Macquarie | 0.61 | 0.42 | 45.24% |
CNB | Carnaby Resources | $1.17 | Macquarie | 1.70 | 1.30 | 30.77% |
COF | Centuria Office REIT | $1.77 | Credit Suisse | 1.89 | 1.90 | -0.53% |
Morgan Stanley | 1.70 | 1.95 | -12.82% | |||
UBS | 1.75 | 1.81 | -3.31% | |||
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | $4.76 | Morgan Stanley | 4.80 | 4.20 | 14.29% |
JHG | Janus Henderson | $41.51 | Citi | 34.50 | 31.00 | 11.29% |
Morgan Stanley | 32.50 | 30.30 | 7.26% | |||
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | $10.33 | Morgans | 10.75 | 10.95 | -1.83% |
Ord Minnett | 9.50 | 11.50 | -17.39% | |||
UBS | 8.60 | 8.50 | 1.18% | |||
RIO | Rio Tinto | $122.94 | Macquarie | 121.00 | 115.00 | 5.22% |
SUN | Suncorp Group | $12.31 | Morgan Stanley | 14.50 | 11.30 | 28.32% |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | $14.81 | Macquarie | 15.50 | 15.00 | 3.33% |
VUK | Virgin Money UK | $3.25 | Ord Minnett | 3.80 | 4.75 | -20.00% |
Summaries
A2M | a2 Milk Co | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.92 |
APA | APA Group | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $10.67 |
BOQ | Bank of Queensland | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.05 |
BST | Best & Less | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.93 |
CCX | City Chic Collective | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.62 |
CNB | Carnaby Resources | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.20 |
COF | Centuria Office REIT | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.76 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $1.76 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $1.76 | ||
CSL | CSL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $304.58 |
IAG | Insurance Australia Group | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.83 |
JHG | Janus Henderson | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $36.74 |
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $36.74 | ||
NCM | Newcrest Mining | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $23.11 |
PNI | Pinnacle Investment Management | Upgrade to Add from Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $9.39 |
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.39 | ||
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $9.39 | ||
PPM | Pepper Money | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.56 |
RIO | Rio Tinto | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $125.43 |
RMC | Resimac Group | Initiation of coverage with Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $1.32 |
S32 | South32 | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.72 |
SUN | Suncorp Group | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $12.31 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $14.52 |
VNT | Ventia Services | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.39 |
VUK | Virgin Money UK | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.23 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 7 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 12 |
5. Sell | 3 |
Friday 03 February 2023
Access Broker Call Report Archives here
Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
Latest News
1 |
Monthly Listed Investment Trust Report – Oct 202412:00 PM - Australia |
2 |
The Case For Charter Hall11:30 AM - Australia |
3 |
Australian Listed Real Estate Tables – 07-10-202411:00 AM - Weekly Reports |
4 |
Australian Banks: When The End Of The Trend?10:38 AM - Feature Stories |
5 |
Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 04-10-2410:00 AM - Weekly Reports |