Australian Broker Call
February 07, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 11:29 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AWC - | ALUMINA | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral | Macquarie |
| NEC - | NINE ENTERTAINMENT | Downgrade to Hold from Buy | Deutsche Bank |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| SWM - | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
Macquarie rates AWC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -
Improved disclosure from Alcoa has translated to upgrades to Macquarie's earnings and dividend expectations.
Potential supply-side restrictions in Chinese alumina later this year have increased the risk that Macquarie's above-consensus call on alumina pricing in 2017 could extend beyond this year.
AWAC's emerging bauxite export business also presents upside risk to the base case forecasts. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $2.30.
Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.39
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting downside of -7.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 8.55 cents and EPS of 5.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.3. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 21.38 cents and EPS of 21.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.0, implying annual growth of 166.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -
Incorporating upgrades to base metal price forecasts and downgrades to the oil price and US gas price means the impact on BHP is mixed. FY17 earnings estimates are upgraded 2% while FY18 is downgraded -2%.
Outperform and $31 target retained.
Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $25.91 Difference: $5.09
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.53, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 97.53 cents and EPS of 179.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 62.79 cents and EPS of 127.19 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.1, implying annual growth of -18.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CAT as Add (1) -
December quarter cash flows were better than Morgans expected. The annualised revenue run rate almost quadrupled.
The broker believes the current share price is severely discounting the possibility of one or two league-wide deals occurring in FY17.
Morgans retains a positive investment view and does not believe the current share price reflects the company's leadership in its sector. Add rating and $4.32 target retained.
Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $2.24 Difference: $2.08
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CGF as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse believes the company has ample opportunity to continue to grow or even accelerate growth. Target price is raised to $12.00 from $11.50. Outperform retained.
The main drivers of growth in the next four years will be aged pension changes, superannuation changes, Australian platform agreements and distribution in Japan.
The broker expects the changes to the aged pension and the new Japanese distribution agreement, which both benefit from increased incentives to buy annuities, will benefit the company.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: $1.18
If CGF meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.28, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.9, implying annual growth of 10.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.7, implying annual growth of 8.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates FMG as Accumulate (2) -
Higher iron ore price forecasts for 2017 have driven material upgrades to Ord Minnett's forecasts for the company. Fortescue Metals is already considered to have a strong balance sheet but the broker expects net debt to fall to US$2.4bn by the end of June.
On this basis, the broker expects the majority of earnings in the medium term will be paid out as dividends, resulting in a forecast dividend yield of 9-10% over the next three years. This comes despite expectations of a material drop in iron ore prices.
The broker reiterates an Accumulate rating and raises the target to $7.80 from $7.30.
Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $1.35
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 56.11 cents and EPS of 124.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.8, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.45 cents and EPS of 97.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.8, implying annual growth of -42.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans - Cessation of coverage
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.33 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.16 cents and EPS of 18.61 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MFG as Outperform (1) -
Funds under management as of January 2017 were down -1.9%. Net inflows exceeded Macquarie's target benchmark of more than 5% of opening funds under management in the month.
Outperform rating retained. Target slips to $25.70 from $26.11.
Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $23.40 Difference: $2.3
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.01, suggesting upside of 10.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 85.50 cents and EPS of 111.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of -9.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 84.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 122.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.0, implying annual growth of 14.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates NAB as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse was slightly disappointed in the trading update, which set a subdued tone for the bank reporting season. The broker downgrades earnings estimates by -2-3%.
The broker believes banks are facing a difficult underlying profit growth environment, although the quality metrics are stable and capital consumption is modest. Outperform rating and $34.50 target retained.
Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: $3.88
If NAB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 246.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NAB as Buy (1) -
There were few surprises for Deutsche Bank in the quarterly update, a sharp contrast to updates in the past. The broker believes this justifies a further re-rating versus the bank's peers but concedes the operating environment is challenging.
Modest downgrades to forecasts are made, ameliorated somewhat by low impairment expenses in the first quarter. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $32.30 from $32.00.
Target price is $32.30 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: $1.68
If NAB meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NAB as Outperform (1) -
The first quarter trading update showed softer underlying trends but Macquarie expects mortgage re-pricing benefits and a more rational competitive environment will support the bank's earnings growth for the remainder of FY17.
Capital generation in the first quarter was a key positive and should support an elevated dividend in the near term. The broker continues to envisage longer-term value in the stock, particularly when business credit growth shows signs of improvement.
Outperform retained. Targets slips to $32.50 from $33.00.
Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: $1.88
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 186.00 cents and EPS of 235.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 177.00 cents and EPS of 235.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NAB as Underweight (5) -
NAB's trading update revealed weaker revenue trends and Morgan Stanley analysts are of the view this is not good enough to justify the valuation, described as being "full".
The analysts are now anticipating a flat result with a flat dividend at the interim report. They think NAB needs help from either lower loan losses or better revenues to meet consensus expectations at that result.
Underweight rating retained. Sector view is In-Line. Price target improves to $28.50 from $28.30 on minor amendments to forecasts.
Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 178.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates NAB as Hold (3) -
First quarter cash earnings were slightly softer than Morgans expected.. The broker expects tight cost management should allow the bank to achieve modestly positive jaws in FY17.
The broker believes the bank continued to run off low-returning institutional exposures over the first quarter and this would have weighed on loan growth.
Hold rating and $29.50 target retained.
Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: minus $1.12 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 198.00 cents and EPS of 251.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates NAB as Hold (3) -
First-quarter cash earnings were in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The broker observes underlying margins were stable as competition for deposits eased.
Trading revenues were strong, thanks to higher levels of volatility, while provisioning improved relative to the second half of FY16.
The broker retains a Hold rating and $29 target.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: minus $1.62 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 236.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NAB as Neutral (3) -
NAB delivered a soft quarterly update but the timing of compensation and redundancy costs offset a low bad debt charge, the broker notes. Revenue growth in the quarter was driven mostly by market trading income and not customer business, which was flat, as was the net interest margin ex-trading.
Mortgage book repricing at the end of the quarter should support revenue growth for the rest of the FY, the broker suggests. NAB is progressing with its turnaround and focus on business banking but is also well priced. Neutral and $30 target retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $30.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.85, suggesting upside of 1.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 238.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of -3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 181.00 cents and EPS of 240.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.6, implying annual growth of 0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates NEC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -
Deutsche Bank expects the weakness in the TV market in the second half of FY16 has continued into the first half of FY17.
Discussions with advertisers and media buyers suggest no immediate improvement should be expected and the broker lowers its forecast for the metro TV market to a -2.5% decline for FY17.
With the stock trading close to the revised price target, Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy. Target falls to $1.10 from $1.35.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.09
If NEC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.9, implying annual growth of -67.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of -5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OZL as Neutral (3) -
Macquarie upgrades earnings forecasts for pure play and diversified copper miners. The broker is making material upgrades to OZ Minerals forecasts, which translates to a 12% increase in the price target.
While conceding that the company offers greater leverage to arising copper price, Macquarie envisages better value in Sandfire Resources ((SFR)).
Neutral retained. Target rises to $10.40 from $9.30.
Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.01 Difference: $1.39
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 38.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of -10.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 60.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.6, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates PNL as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie remodels its production scenario, splitting Buck Creek into two separate phase developments - Poplar Grove and Cypress.
The company has $11m in net cash but will need to secure a combination of both debt and equity to advance the Poplar Grove development.
Outperform and $0.65 price target retained.
Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.13
If PNL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
Incorporating upgrades to base metal price forecast drives an upgrade to Macquarie's price target. Modest upgrades to earnings forecasts are made.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $77 from $74.
Target price is $77.00 Current Price is $64.89 Difference: $12.11
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $68.40, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 185.71 cents and EPS of 367.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 356.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 183.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 227.12 cents and EPS of 455.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.0, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 295.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The broker has tweaked earnings forecasts ahead of Rio's result release while retaining Buy and a $71 target.
Debt reduction should provide for capital management but while the broker expects the dividend to be increased, it believes Rio will remain cautious and not announce another buyback.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $64.89 Difference: $6.11
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $68.40, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 187.04 cents and EPS of 367.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 356.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 183.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 277.89 cents and EPS of 553.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 495.0, implying annual growth of 38.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 295.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RRL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
A general sector update on base metals and gold has triggered changes to valuations and forecasts across the spectrum. UBS sides with the gold bulls, anticipating US$1300/oz in 2017.
Only one stock has received a downgrade in recommendation, and it is Regis Resources. Downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Price target lifts to $3.44 from $3.08.
Target price is $3.44 Current Price is $3.48 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.23, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of 8.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5. |
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 31.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -
Incorporating upgrades to base metal price forecast drives an upgrade to Macquarie's price target. Modest upgrades to earnings forecasts are made.
Outperform retained. Target rises to $3.90 from $3.80.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.3
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.08, suggesting upside of 17.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 35.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.03 cents and EPS of 31.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of -12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie upgrades earnings forecasts for pure play and diversified copper miners. The broker is making material upgrades to Sandfire's forecasts, which translates to a 7% increase in the price target.
Macquarie envisages better value in Sandfire Resources and prefers the stock to OZ Minerals ((OZL)). Outperform retained. Target rises to $8.00 from $7.50.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.28 Difference: $1.72
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.39, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 63.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 63.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.2, implying annual growth of 32.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -
The company has raised $201m in its share purchase plan, falling short of the expected $500m. Management has signalled the capital raising will provide flexibility for growth in the core business.
Macquarie remains positive on the stock, noting production from the Roma field continues to ramp up, while drilling at Muruk-1 in PNG could deliver significant upside to the acreage in PNG.
Outperform retained. Target is $5.40.
Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $3.92 Difference: $1.48
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 120.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.80 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of 490.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates SWM as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
Deutsche Bank believes weakness in the TV market has continued into the first half of FY17 and discussions with advertisers and media buyers suggest no immediate improvement.
The broker lowers its forecast for the metro TV market to a decline of -2.5% in FY17.
With the stock trading ahead of the broker's updated valuation it is downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target falls to $0.70 from $0.85.
Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.76, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.6, implying annual growth of -13.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of -9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TGZ as Outperform (1) -
The company has guided to 205-225,000 ounces, slightly lower than Macquarie expected for 2017. The Sabodala operations are improving on both the mine and mill fronts but exploration results underwhelmed the broker, with thin and moderate grades.
Outperform and $1 target retained.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.11
If TGZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.81 cents. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.34 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AWC - | ALUMINA | Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.91 |
| BHP - | BHP BILLITON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $25.91 |
| CAT - | CATAPULT GROUP | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $2.24 |
| CGF - | CHALLENGER | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $10.82 |
| FMG - | FORTESCUE | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $6.45 |
| KMD - | KATHMANDU | Cessation of coverage - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.83 |
| MFG - | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $23.40 |
| NAB - | NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $30.62 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $30.62 | ||
| NEC - | NINE ENTERTAINMENT | Downgrade to Hold from Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.01 |
| OZL - | OZ MINERALS | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.01 |
| PNL - | PARINGA RESOURCES | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.52 |
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $64.89 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $64.89 | ||
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.48 |
| S32 - | SOUTH32 | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.60 |
| SFR - | SANDFIRE | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.28 |
| STO - | SANTOS | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.92 |
| SWM - | SEVEN WEST MEDIA | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $0.78 |
| TGZ - | TERANGA GOLD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.89 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 15 |
| 2. Accumulate | 1 |
| 3. Hold | 6 |
| 5. Sell | 2 |
Tuesday 07 February 2017
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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of
FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about
the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other
financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who
base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors
should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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