Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates APA as Outperform (1) -

APA Group and CS Energy have agreed on a gas powered generation purchase agreement, with APA agreeing to develop the 400MW Briglow OCGT (open cycle gas turbine) plant. Macquarie notes total costs are yet to be finalised but CSIRO estimates a small OCGT plant to cost around $1bn to $1.1bn.

The contract is linked to CPI with the return expected to be above the cost of capital.

Management reconfirmed capex of $2.1bn over three years, but the analyst sees a likely upgrade if Bulloo extension moves ahead and other OCGT projects in WA and QLD go ahead.

The broker raises earnings by 7.6% for FY26 and 11% for FY27 on higher capitalised interest assumptions. No change to $9.23 target price and Outperform rating.

Target price is $9.23 Current Price is $9.18 Difference: $0.05
If APA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.41, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

AUB Group has been notified by EQT and CVC that they will not be going ahead with a proposal to acquire 100% of the insurance broker at $45 per share.

Management reiterated FY26 guidance for underlying net profit after tax of $215-$227m, which is annual growth between 7.4%-13.4%.

Looking further out, management highlighted they envisage "significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond" and medium term targets infer around 6% upside to the broker's EBIT forecasts if achieved by FY28.

Notably, at the recent AGM, 1Q26 has seen premium rate rises in the Australian broking segment of 5%-7%. Macquarie has lifted EPS forecasts for FY27 by 0.4% and 3% for FY28-FY30.

No change to Outperform rating and $37.40 target.

Target price is $37.40 Current Price is $31.55 Difference: $5.85
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.40, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi is bullish on base metals, especially copper, which could hit record highs on supply disruption. The broker is constructive on precious metals and believes bulk-commodity bearishness looks overdone.

The broker expects iron ore and coal to be range-bound rather than materially down, supported by costs.

However, to outperform, both BHP Group and Rio Tinto need iron ore upside, which is not the broker's base case.

Neutral maintained for BHP. Target unchanged at $47.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $42.56 Difference: $4.44
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.48, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BLX as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Bell Potter initiates coverage on Beacon Lighting with a Buy rating and target of $3.35. Beacon is a specialist retailer of lighting, fans, globes and electrical accessories, servicing retail, trade and wholesale customers, 

The company's integrated model delivers high margins and a strong stance in a fragmented market, supported by in-house product design and broad distribution. It’s noted this structure underpins steady growth across retail and trade channels.

The broker sees the trade segment accelerating revenue, outpacing the mature store network as Beacon benefits from housing demand and continued share gains.

The analysts consider scale, market position and exposure to construction activity as reinforcing the outlook.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $0.39
If BLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.70, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Bank of Queensland reaffirmed FY26 guidance at its AGM, with 1H26 cost growth expected to align with inflation and full-year underlying cost growth to sit below inflation.

UBS believes the shift toward a fully proprietary distribution model for the franchise network and continued digital adoption will support efficiency.

The broker highlights management’s intention to tilt toward commercial lending to lift return on tangible equity (ROTE), set against weaker recent mortgage and deposit trends amid rising competition.

UBS retains a Sell rating and target of $6.75.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $6.35 Difference: $0.4
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.55, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CKF as Buy (1) -

Following a full review of Collins Foods' 1H26 results, Citi lifted FY26 core net profit forecast by 3% on stronger earnings guidance. FY27-28 estimates lowered by -1% on slightly slower sales growth run-rate vs expectations.

Target cut to $12.85 from $13.07 on roll-forward. Buy maintained.

Early comments follow:

Citi's first glance at today's interim results suggests a 'beat' against expectations. Underlying profit of $30.8m is 13% above consensus, supported by stronger sales, gross margin improvement and disciplined cost control, notes the broker.

KFC Australia remained the key driver, explain the analysts, delivering solid same-store sales growth and margin expansion, while Germany continued to post healthy growth despite a slight moderation.

Citi explains European margins were softer due to higher poultry costs, and the Netherlands remained challenging.

Management upgraded FY26 profit guidance to mid-to-high teens from low-to-mid teens previously. Early 2H trading in Australia is tracking ahead of the consensus expectation, while European margins are set to improve as cost pressures ease.

Target price is $12.85 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $1.65
If CKF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Collins Foods reported same-store sales growth up 1.6% y/y for FY26 year to date, with the 2H26 trading update showing 3.6% y/y sales growth as value menu offerings for KFC are implemented. Earnings (EBITDA) margins advanced 80bps y/y in 1H26.

Macquarie notes EBITDA lifted 9.4% y/y versus revenue growth of 5% y/y as productivity initiatives kicked in. Management is cautious on the domestic outlook, given interest rate uncertainty and soft consumer sentiment.

As margin impacts from avian flu subsided in Europe, the margin outlook improved, although the analyst remains cautious on the German store growth prospects. The broker forecasts 40 versus Collins Foods’ 40-70 additional stores target.

The broker raises EPS forecast by 5% for FY26 and 2% for FY27.

Macquarie lifts the target price 4.5% to $11.70 from $11.20 due to lower capex assumptions, with further growth in store openings. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $0.5
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CKF as Overweight (1) -

Collins Foods' interim results beat Morgan Stanley's expectations, with profit about 12% above consensus on stronger Australian and European margins.

FY26 profit guidance has been upgraded to mid-to-high-teens growth from low-to-mid teens and early 2H trading shows KFC Australia outperforming, highlights the broker.

Margin gains in Australia from lower commodity prices and efficiencies are noted, while Europe benefited from fixed-cost leverage despite mixed same-store sales.

The analysts point to continued store expansion, improving German margins, and supportive chicken and VAT trends in Europe.

Overweight rating. Target $11.40.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $0.2
If CKF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CKF as Accumulate (2) -

Collins Foods reported a 30% rise in 1H26 net profit after tax, which is 12% above Morgans' forecast and consensus.

The quick service retailer reported an easing in same-store sales growth to 1.8% for the weeks 17-24 from 2.9% for the weeks 8-16 due to the higher comps. Growth was maintained via menu upgrades and operational excellence, the analyst states.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) margin rose 60bps in 1H26 to 15.2% versus 14.6% a year earlier as better same-store sales growth and operational "excellence" improved performance.

For the first seven weeks of 2H26, same-store sales growth rose 3.6% for KFC Australia, up 0.8% y/y, KFC Netherlands up 0.4% y/y and 2.3% growth for Germany.

Management upgraded net profit after tax guidance for FY26 to mid-to-high teens from low-to-mid teens, and Morgans lifted net profit after tax forecasts by 3.2% for FY26 and 3.4% for FY27.

Target price is also raised to $12.40 from $12.20 with no change in the Accumulate rating.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: $1.2
If CKF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CKF as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Collins Foods lifted FY26 net profit growth guidance to “mid–high teens,” mainly due to lower D&A rather than a stronger underlying outlook, Ord Minnett observes.

KFC Australia had a strong 1H26 with same-store sales growth up 2.3% y/y and EBITDA  up 9.4%, helped by price investment, efficiencies, and better input costs.

2H26 looks tougher, with competition intensifying and input costs rising, so Ord Minnett expects margins to narrow in 2H vs 1H and possibly y/y. Europe was solid in 1H, but momentum has slowed in 2H.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 6.9% but trimmed FY27 by -2.2%. Target rises to $10.50 from $9.50.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.20 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.43, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi reckons RBNZ interest rate cuts have steadied the housing market, with data showing a mild improvement. But risks persist, including high consents versus weak macro, elevated inventories, and a widening new-build premium over existing homes. 

The broker trimmed Fletcher Building's FY26 EBIT forecast by -7% and FY27 by -5% after factoring in a slower recovery.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price unchanged at NZ$3.50.

Current Price is $3.06. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Greatland Resources' Havieron feasibility study beat expectations with lower expansion capex and a 36% increase in gold reserves. The broker notes EPA permitting is the final hurdle for the final investment decision, due in FY26. 

First gold is modelled for 1Q29, but Havieron alone will use only 35% of the available mill capacity. So the company is focused on extending Telfer’s mine life via a major FY26 drilling program and a West Dome Underground maiden resource in 1Q2026.

Gold price assumptions are raised, boosting FY26 revenue by 5.6% and FY27 by 27.4%.

Target rises to $10.25 from $9.00, and Buy is maintained.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $8.30 Difference: $1.95
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.92, suggesting upside of 31.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter says GrainCorp should see a record east coast winter crop of 31.1mt after upgraded yield assumptions and modest improvements across NSW, QLD and VIC.

The analysts believe softer summer crop expectations and weaker year-to-date receipts frame a more conservative FY26 outlook.

Receipts are tracking well below last year, explains the broker, while crush margins appear stronger and basis trends remain a headwind.

Stable crop conditions and reduced losses from exited businesses as supportive are seen as supportive though global supply continues to cap marketing returns.

Bell Potter retains a Hold rating and target of $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.03 Difference: $0.47
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.83, suggesting upside of 8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes both Meteoric Resources and Viridis Mining and Minerals are working with FEAM to address the federal prosecutors’ concerns. Both insist they are complying with all laws and have covered risks in their environmental studies.

As background, a 28 Nov vote was derailed by federal prosecutors’ environmental concerns and FEAM needing more time to respond.

The companies note FEAM previously issued a positive technical assessment and recommended granting the Preliminary Licences. Both expect a council vote on issuing Preliminary Licenses at the 19 Dec meeting.

With no new clarity yet, the broker maintains Speculative Buy rating on Meteoric with an unchanged target of 35c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.205
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 106.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MI6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Minerals 260 to 75c from 57c and keeps a Speculative Buy rating. An upgraded 4.5moz Bullabulling Gold Resource, supported by extensive drilling, materially improves scale and development potential, in the analysts' view.

It’s also thought the increase in tonnage and Indicated material enhances project optionality.

The broker highlights stronger project metrics, noting updated assumptions for throughput, production and costs (AISC) position the asset as a significant undeveloped gold opportunity and a potential corporate target.

Bell Potter estimates around -$20m of operating expenditure over the drilling period, implying a discovery cost of roughly -$9/oz.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.38
If MI6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 96.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MI6 as Buy (1) -

Morgans upgrades Minerals 260 to Buy from Speculative Buy with a rise in target price to $1.10 from 55c. This follows the mineral resource update for the Bullabulling gold project at 130mt at 1.0g/t Au for 4.5Moz, well above the analyst's forecast of 3.5Moz.

The upgrade makes Bullabulling now a long-life, bulk tonnage development asset with both scale and concentration now larger, providing an improved pathway to development.

The analyst has lifted development assumptions for FY32 mill expansion to 7Mtpa from 5Mtpa, needing a further $250m of capex growth. The estimated inventory has also been raised to align with the Indicated resource of 3Moz from 1.3Moz previously, a rise of 130%.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.73
If MI6 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 197% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting upside of 96.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEM as Buy (1) -

UBS raises its target for Buy-rated Newmont Corp to $190 from $160, noting the outlook into 2026 remains strongly supported by a favourable gold backdrop. Upgraded gold price assumptions drive meaningful forecast earnings and free cash flow uplift.

It’s thought management's initial soft 2026 production guide is conservative, with scheduling and growth projects expected to support medium-term improvement. 

The analysts expect production to track toward the lower end of guidance in 2026 before growth emerges in 2027.

The broker highlights commentary around Barrick Gold's potential IPO of its North American assets and the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture (Newmont 38.5%).

Feedback to UBS from Newmont management suggests a broader transaction remains too complex for the company at this stage.

Target price is $190.00 Current Price is $138.76 Difference: $51.24
If NEM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $160.20, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights NexGen Energy's drilling at the Patterson Corridor East exploration area within the Rook 1 uranium project delivered standout ultra-high grades.

It reinforces Arrow isn’t a standalone find and supports the view NexGen has opened up a new uranium province in the southwest Athabasca Basin, the broker remarks.

The first CNSC hearing on Nov 19 went smoothly, with the second set for Feb 9, and the construction licence for Rook I is expected in late April 2026.

Buy, High Risk maintained. Target unchanged at $17.70.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $13.59 Difference: $4.11
If NXG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NXT as Buy (1) -

NextDC's recent contract wins lifted contracted utilisation to 316MW, up 71MW (29%) since 30 June, Ord Minnett highlights. This already exceeds FY26 guidance for 50-100MW wins, and industry signals strong hyperscaler demand, supporting a better full-year result.

FY26 capex guidance rose to $2.2-2.4bn to meet new contracts, and the broker is forecasting $2.6bn, including some Asian land purchases.

No change to FY26 EBITDA estimates, but FY27 lifted by 2% and FY28 by 7%. Buy and $19 target unchanged.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $13.54 Difference: $5.46
If NXT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.93, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi is bullish on base metals, especially copper, which could hit record highs on supply disruption. The broker is constructive on precious metals and believes bulk-commodity bearishness looks overdone.

The broker expects iron ore and coal to be range-bound rather than materially down, supported by costs. However, to outperform, both BHP Group and Rio Tinto need iron ore upside, which is not the broker's base case.

Neutral maintained for Rio Tinto, with unchanged target of $140. The broker has a short-term upside view expiring December 14, based on Capital Markets Day and a site visit to the lithium project in Argentina.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $135.03 Difference: $4.97
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $130.42, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie reiterates a Neutral rating on Rio Tinto, lifts the target price 5% to $130, and continues to prefer the UK-based Rio, unlike the Ashes.

The analyst notes the stock has outperformed BHP Group ((BHP)) and believes there is continued scope for the business to improve after Capital Markets Day, with a simplified operating model lowering overheads and bureaucracy.

The company will unveil lithium strategy in early December, and the broker expects emphasis on productivity improvements, project optimisation, and disciplined growth. As background, Capital Markets Day is on Dec 4, and a site visit to Argentina's lithium operations is on Dec 8-10.

Other positives include the iron ore cost outs, further growth from copper with the Oyu Tolgai ramp up, optimisation of the value chain for aluminium, and rationalising lithium.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -6% for 2025 and 2026 as finance costs rise, offset by the Tomago extension, Pilbara iron ore production to 360mtpa, and cost outs.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $135.03 Difference: minus $5.03 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.42, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley expects management at Rio Tinto to emphasise a pivot towards simplification, cost discipline and cash generation at tomorrow's Capital Markets Day. While this should be well received, it's thought the share price mostly reflects this change.

The broker sees management targeting quantifiable operating and capital cost reductions. Non-core divestment plans are expected, along with a moderated lithium pipeline and further detail on structural efficiencies.

Morgan Stanley retains an Equal-weight rating and target of $129.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $135.03 Difference: minus $5.53 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $130.42, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie points to ongoing weakness in pricing for business pack, home and commercial lines in November. Only commercial motor and strata saw some improvements, according to the broker's latest market data.

In November, home was the most challenging, with a 0.2% price rise, which reflected the fourth consecutive month of softness. The analyst estimates Steadfast Group managed a price rise of 2.2% in the September quarter based on its product mix.

The stock is trading around a -16.7% discount against the long-term premium of 2.3% relative to international brokers.

Target price unchanged at $4.90 with a Neutral rating due to declining commission rates and ongoing weakness in the premium rate cycle.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 24.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

After a fortnight of investor meetings, Citi remains of the view Santos is best positioned vs Woodside Energy for a re-rating as the cycle troughs (the broker's house view is for oil price bottoming in 1Q2026).

The broker notes investors’ main hesitation on Woodside is Louisiana LNG as they look for a track record before giving full value. The company swapped reservoir risk for unproven trading/basis risk, and fear capex/balance-sheet strain without more sell-downs.

In the case of Santos, sudden executive departures and uncertainty around CEO tenure raise leadership questions and delay confidence in a more shareholder-friendly capital returns framework.

Investors see little M&A premium after the failed XRG bid and doubt a break-up unlock, but the broker expects Barossa/Pikka de-risking and a new capital framework to drive a nearer-term re-rating.

Buy. Target unchanged at $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.52 Difference: $0.98
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.55, suggesting upside of 15.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLC as Sell (5) -

Citi notes major lottery turnover is -4% lower y/y in FY26 to end-November, so despite consensus lowering 1H26 turnover growth to 4.8%, it would need an implausible 55% y/y surge in December to hit forecasts.

On the positive side, Powerball’s 16.7% price hike is boosting turnover and improving like-for-like, with turnover down only -3.5% y/y. Saturday Lotto is holding strong, while Weekday Windfall is weak, hinting at portfolio cannibalisation.

The broker lifted Lottery Corp's FY26 EBIT forecast by 1% and by 3% for FY27, but still believes the consensus for 1H26 EBIT needs to be materially downgraded.

Sell. Target rises to $5.10 from $5.00  The broker has a downside catalyst watch expiring on 31 December.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $5.41 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If TLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.81, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TTT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Titomic has successfully completed a hot fire test on a cold-spray-manufactured rocket motor chamber for one of the leading US defence prime contractors Northrop Grumman.

The test demonstrated strength and thermal performance beyond requirements, highlights Bell Potter. It’s thought this outcome validates the technology for mission-critical aerospace and defence applications.

The analysts believe the test builds credibility with US defence primes, with qualification work expected ahead of potential low-rate production in 2026 and broader component opportunities.

Speculative Buy rating and 50c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.285
If TTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 133% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates will write off the goodwill attached to its US operations, about -$687m, in 1H26 after lowering long-term assumptions for market and earnings growth, explains Ord Minnett.

The analyst believes the move reflects structural shifts in American drinking habits and signals a broader rebasing of expectations.

The broker notes most of the goodwill stemmed from the Daou acquisition, implying further asset impairments ahead of the first market update from new CEO Sam Fischer.

Ord Minnett awaits clearer guidance before updating forecasts, citing uncertainty around the earnings rebuild. Hold rating and target of $6.50 maintained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.80 Difference: $0.7
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Viridis Mining and Minerals has faced a permit delay after the license hearing was postponed. This was to allow the State Foundation for Environment to address questions from federal prosecutors on environmental and community impacts, explains Bell Potter.

Concerns regarding water availability, spring disruption and clay residue were overstated, according to management.

The broker notes the December 19 State Environmental Policy Council (or COPAM) meeting is the next potential approval window, with agenda confirmation due shortly.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and $2.65 target.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $1.615
If VMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes both Meteoric Resources and Viridis Mining and Minerals are working with FEAM to address the federal prosecutors’ concerns. Both insist they are complying with all laws and have covered risks in their environmental studies.

As background, a 28 Nov vote was derailed by federal prosecutors’ environmental concerns and FEAM needing more time to respond.

The companies note FEAM previously issued a positive technical assessment and recommended granting the Preliminary Licences. Both expect a council vote on issuing Preliminary Licenses at the 19 Dec meeting.

With no new clarity yet, the broker maintains Speculative Buy rating on Viridis with an unchanged target of $3.60

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: $2.565
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 248% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

After a fortnight of investor meetings, Citi remains of the view Santos is best positioned vs Woodside Energy for a re-rating as the cycle troughs (the broker's house view is for oil price bottoming in 1Q2026).

The broker notes investors’ main hesitation on Woodside is Louisiana LNG as they look for a track record before giving full value. The company swapped reservoir risk for unproven trading/basis risk, and fear capex/balance-sheet strain without more sell-downs.

In the case of Santos, sudden executive departures and uncertainty around CEO tenure raise leadership questions and delay confidence in a more shareholder-friendly capital returns framework.

Investors see little M&A premium after the failed XRG bid and doubt a break-up unlock, but the broker expects Barossa/Pikka de-risking and a new capital framework to drive a nearer-term re-rating.

Neutral for Woodside Energy. Target $25.50.

Target price is $25.50 Current Price is $25.40 Difference: $0.1
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.95, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources