Australian Broker Call
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March 07, 2022
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $7.43
Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes export coal prices have risen significantly last week over Russia supply concerns. Australia floods may also have impacted on prices. As a result, the broker sees upside risk for AGL Energy's FY23 earnings.
In a further report on AGL Energy, Morgan Stanley analyses a scenario incorporating closure of all the company's coal-fired plants by FY30, coupled with 10GW of incremental investment in renewables and firming.
In short, the broker sees potential for net valuation upside of 25-30% and lifts its target price to $7.50 from $6.88. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $0.07
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.8, implying annual growth of 52.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AGL as Buy (1) -
AGL Energy's board rejected a second takeover bid for $8.25 per share, with the speed of the rejection likely to discourage further offers from the consortium. The offer was a step-up from an original $7.50 per share bid, but rejection of the deal did not surprise Ord Minnett.
The broker notes the event confirms the appeal of AGL Energy's retail business, and notes recent electricity pricing strength only adds value. Ord Minnett expects an offer upwards of $9.00 per share would be required to entice management.
The Buy rating and target price of $8.75 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.43 Difference: $1.32
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.8, implying annual growth of 52.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $79.59
Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Underweight (5) -
Morgan Stanley is surprised that ASX rate futures volumes haven't been bolstered more by the changing outlook for Australian interest rates. February volume was down -26% year-on-year and well below pre-covid volume.
Despite this, the broker still expects a recovery in short to medium-term volume. The Underweight rating and $73.70 target are maintained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $73.70 Current Price is $79.59 Difference: minus $5.89 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $81.86, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 227.60 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.4, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 230.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 233.30 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 272.9, implying annual growth of 6.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 243.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.67
UBS rates BPT as Buy (1) -
After UBS takes into account the flow-on impact from higher European energy prices as a result of the Ukranian conflict, Beach Energy is estimated to offer the least leverage to oil and spot LNG prices.
Despite this, the company offers the greatest exposure to a structural tailwind from rising east coast gas prices, points out the broker. The Buy rating and $1.65 target are retained.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.5, implying annual growth of 40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.88
Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes export coal prices have risen significantly last week over Russia supply concerns. Australia floods may also have impacted on prices.
As a result, the broker sees downside risk for Origin Energy's FY23 guidance. It's noted higher pool prices may induce policy intervention in the interests of energy security.
The Equal-weight rating and $6.05 target are retained. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.88 Difference: $0.17
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.19, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 26.20 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.9, implying annual growth of 20.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.72
Ord Minnett rates QBE as Buy (1) -
QBE Insurance intends to sell its North American Westwood Insurance Agency business for US$375m, with the transaction expected to complete by May 1. Ord Minnett notes the sale price implies roughly 12 times the pre-tax profit of US$30m recorded in FY21.
The company also announced a maximum event retention of -US$125m for the Australian floods, and that no impact was expected from the Ukraine conflict.
The Buy rating and target price of $15.50 are retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $10.72 Difference: $4.78
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 56.63 cents and EPS of 94.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.41 cents and EPS of 113.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of 27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -
QBE Insurance Group updated on the scale of its exposure to recent flooding in Australia, which was in-line with prior UBS forecasts.
In other news, the group announced the US$375m sale of Westwood, a US nationwide personal lines agency specialising in homeowners.
The broker feels the sale simplifies the group's activities and accounting, and aligns with the objective to reduce focus on various non-core activities such as US homeowners.
Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $10.72 Difference: $3.68
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.53, suggesting upside of 44.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 84.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 110.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of 27.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.28
Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -
Resolute Mining has released its annual resource and reserve statement along with an updated Life of Mine Plan. Macquarie notes from the latter, the Syama Oxide mine life has been extended by two years after some exploration success.
The broker highlights the extended life allows for a delay to the -US$80-100m in capital spending for the Tabakoroni sulphide development which will dovetail with the oxide operation.
Elsewhere, costs at the Mako gold mine in West Africa are expected to be higher than first thought, explains Macquarie.
Taking the changes at Syama and Mako into account, the analyst reduces the target to $0.35 from $0.40 and retains an Outperform rating.
Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.07
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY23:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.48 cents and EPS of 0.27 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.91
Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -
Following a further assessment of 1H results for Sandfire Resources, which revealed weaker earnings and cash flows, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $6.65 from $7.65.
The weaker production guidance for Matsa and higher cost guidance also impacted the target price, notes the broker. Overweight rating retained. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $5.91 Difference: $0.74
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 55.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY23:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 24.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.8, implying annual growth of -40.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -
After UBS takes into account the flow-on impact from higher European energy prices as a result of the Ukranian conflict, Santos remains the most preferred Australian energy exposure.
The analyst points to valuation upside thanks to around 80% of the company's share of Barossa gas being sold via a long-term contract indexed to Asian spot LNG prices.
The broker also sees a number of positive catalysts including the selling down of equity in PNG LNG and Dorado/Alaskan oil assets.
The Buy rating and $8.90 target are retained.
Target price is $8.90 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $1.14
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.95, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 76.85 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 72.81 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.2, implying annual growth of -9.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $31.42
UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -
After UBS takes into account the flow-on impact from higher European energy prices as a result of the Ukranian conflict, Woodside Petroleum remains the second most preferred Australian energy exposure, behind Santos ((STO)).
Despite this, the broker points out the company's earnings have the highest leverage to spot LNG. The Buy rating and $29 target are retained.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.42 Difference: minus $2.42 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $28.78, suggesting downside of -16.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 322.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 311.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 207.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Forecast for FY23:
UBS forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 269.65 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.8, implying annual growth of -20.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 152.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $98.05
Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -
New business formation in Australia and the UK appears to be slowing, but Citi notes the numbers remain above pre-covid levels, while insolvencies in both Australia and the UK are up year-on-year.
Following a dip in site visits and app downloads in the UK at the end of 2021, the company reported numbers increased 5% and 6% year-on-year respectively in January.
The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $132.60 from $160.00 given lower peer multiples.
Target price is $132.60 Current Price is $98.05 Difference: $34.55
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $124.60, suggesting upside of 30.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 1366.7. |
Forecast for FY23:
Citi forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.9, implying annual growth of 498.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 228.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| AGL | AGL Energy | $7.30 | Morgan Stanley | 7.50 | 6.88 | 9.01% |
| RSG | Resolute Mining | $0.32 | Macquarie | 0.35 | 0.40 | -12.50% |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | $5.85 | Morgan Stanley | 6.65 | 7.65 | -13.07% |
| XRO | Xero | $95.67 | Citi | 132.60 | 160.00 | -17.13% |
Summaries
| AGL | AGL Energy | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.43 |
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $7.43 | ||
| ASX | ASX | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $79.59 |
| BPT | Beach Energy | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.67 |
| ORG | Origin Energy | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.88 |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $10.72 |
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $10.72 | ||
| RSG | Resolute Mining | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.28 |
| SFR | Sandfire Resources | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $5.91 |
| STO | Santos | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.76 |
| WPL | Woodside Petroleum | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $31.42 |
| XRO | Xero | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $98.05 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 9 |
| 3. Hold | 2 |
| 5. Sell | 1 |
Monday 07 March 2022
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