Australian Broker Call
January 18, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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Last Updated: 03:35 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| BEN - | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Downgrade to Sell from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
| BSE - | BASE RESOURCES | Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold | Ord Minnett |
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Upgrade to Buy from Hold | Deutsche Bank |
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight | Morgan Stanley |
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley |
| WPL - | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold | Ord Minnett |
Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Equal-weight (3) -
Media reports suggest AGL is close to a deal to supply electricity to the Portland aluminium smelter, with help from both state and federal governments. The broker's current base case is that the smelter closes due to increased electricity costs.
Were a deal to be finalised it would, by contrast, be positive for AGL, the broker notes. The market's recent re-rate of AGL suggests a deal is being priced in. The broker retains Equal-weight with a $21.02 target and a Cautious industry view.
Target price is $21.02 Current Price is $22.17 Difference: minus $1.15 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.64, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 88.00 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 133.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.7, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates AGL as Accumulate (2) -
In a surprising development, Ord Minnett notes AGL Energy and Alcoa are reportedly close to finalising a new electricity supply contract to the 620MW Portland aluminium smelter in Victoria.
Given the smelter represents circa 15% of Victoria’s electricity demand, the analysts point out keeping Portland running will likely mean wholesale markets tighten even more than previously expected once the 1,600MW Hazelwood plant stops generating electricity in March 2017.
Target of $23 and Accumulate rating retained.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $22.17 Difference: $0.83
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.64, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 117.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 101.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 133.7, implying annual growth of 14.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 98.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Buy (1) -
In light of revised FX assumptions, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Paper & Packaging sector in Australia. It turns out, both Orora and Pact are beneficiaries, but not so Amcor.
For Amcor, the depreciation of the AUD relative to the USD has triggered 3-6% reductions to forecasts. The analysts point out, 50% of Amcor’s earnings are exposed to movements in the USD, 20-25% to the Euro, and 25-30% to other countries. Buy rating retained. Target unchanged at $17.35.
Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $14.95 Difference: $2.4
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 59.43 cents and EPS of 82.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 65.20 cents and EPS of 90.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.2, implying annual growth of 12.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -
ANZ Bank has been selling non-core assets and UBS analysts expect next to go will be the 12% stake in Bank of Tianjin (listed on the HKEX) upon release from escrow in March. Showing their conviction, the analysts have already incorporated this in their updated forecasts.
On UBS' calculations, the sale of the Bank of Tianjin shares will release circa 20bp of CET1. ANZ Bank's CET1 is now expected to reach 10.8% by FY17, leaving the bank well placed for upcoming regulatory changes, comment the analysts. Neutral. Target moves to $29 from $26.
Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $30.40 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.18, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.8, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 229.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.9, implying annual growth of 4.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates BEN as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -
While acknowledging the bank's prospects have improved in recent quarters, Deutsche Bank analysts are simply of the view the share price has run way too hard. Downgrade to Sell from Hold. Price target lifts to $11.40 from $10.70, still well below the share price.
Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $13.24 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If BEN meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.3, implying annual growth of -11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.1, implying annual growth of 0.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates BSE as Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold (1) -
Ahead of the release of the December quarter production report, Ord Minnett analysts have upgraded to a Speculative Buy while lifting the price target to 34c from 25c. The view is that balance sheet risk is more than accurately reflected in the weaker share price.
Ord Minnett believes the pricing outlook for ilmenite continues to strengthen and this will assist in debt reduction. The analysts are toying with the idea of accelerated de-leveraging if price momentum builds as they expect it will.
Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.1
If BSE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BTT as Overweight (1) -
The broker is not particularly concerned with the departure of BT Investment's Group Executive, International, who previously ran the flagship JOHCM operation.
Any negative impact could be mitigated by several factors, the broker suggests, and it is a diversity of growth options outside of JOHCM that keeps the broker on Overweight.
BT is the broker's preferred wealth manager. Target $11.30. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $10.10 Difference: $1.2
If BTT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.20, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 57.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.8, implying annual growth of 3.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.5, implying annual growth of 20.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates CTX as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -
On Deutsche Bank's observation, Caltex shares have underperformed the broader market in Australia by some 30% over the past twelve months. This now creates an opportunity for investors, say the analysts, as too low expectations ("unrealistically low") have been priced in.
Much easier comp virtually guarantees a return to growth in 2017, suggest the analysts. Price target of $35 suggests the potential for double digit return. Upgrade to Buy from Hold.
Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $29.90 Difference: $5.1
If CTX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.20, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 197.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 203.6, implying annual growth of -12.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 102.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 118.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.5, implying annual growth of 10.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ORA as Hold (3) -
In light of revised FX assumptions, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Paper & Packaging sector in Australia. It turns out, both Orora and Pact are beneficiaries, but not so Amcor.
Orora's forecasts have lifted by 3-4%. Price target lifts by 10c to $2.90. Hold.
Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.6, implying annual growth of 12.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -
In light of revised FX assumptions, Deutsche Bank analysts have updated earnings estimates for the Paper & Packaging sector in Australia. It turns out, both Orora and Pact are beneficiaries, but not so Amcor.
Deutsche Bank analysts explain Pact is in particular exposed tp movements in the NZD (translation) and USD (purchase of raw materials). Estimates have gone up by 1%. Price target has gained 10c to $7.20. Buy.
Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $0.6
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.54, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 25.90 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.8, implying annual growth of 26.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 29.60 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of 12.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
Strong equity markets are supporting funds under management (FuM), but Citi analysts point out net inflows remain on the weak side. Compositionally there was more emphasis on lower margin assets.
Funds flows have been weak for a year now, note the analysts. Plus key personnel has jumped ship. FY17 EPS rises 0.2%, valuation/target price increase 3.6% to $48.85. Neutral.
Target price is $48.85 Current Price is $47.63 Difference: $1.22
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.24, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 260.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 307.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.7, implying annual growth of 6.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates PPT as Neutral (3) -
Perpetual enjoyed a 3.9% increase in funds under management in the Dec Q, thanks to a stronger market, the broker notes. The increase met the broker's expectations.
However funds inflow remains generally low and the broker sees a subdued outlook given weak one and five year performances of flagship strategies, staff departures and recent press reports suggesting reviews by institutional clients. Neutral and $49 target retained.
Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $47.63 Difference: $1.37
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.24, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 270.00 cents and EPS of 284.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 275.00 cents and EPS of 308.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.7, implying annual growth of 6.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -
Perpetual enjoyed a resilient Dec Q of positive inflows, the broker suggests, albeit driven by lower margin products. The broker sees around 1% upside risk to forecasts from stronger market growth in this quarter.
The broker retains Equal-weight, and has Perpetual as second preference among asset managers behind BT Investments ((BTT)). Target unchanged at $48.50. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $48.50 Current Price is $47.63 Difference: $0.87
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.24, suggesting downside of -3.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 256.00 cents and EPS of 276.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 278.4, implying annual growth of -4.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 254.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 300.00 cents and EPS of 310.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 297.7, implying annual growth of 6.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 272.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RCR as Outperform (1) -
Following RCR's recent $155m solar farm contract win in Qld, the company has announced a further $100m in contract wins. While RCR's order book has declined slightly, the broker believes this is due to a delay in converting preferred status awards into firm tenders.
RCR has increased its focus on renewable energy, gas-fired power, road tunnels and rail. A very large opportunity pipeline supports the broker's Outperform rating and $2.92 target.
Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.09
If RCR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 30.50 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RHC as Neutral (3) -
UBS has pulled back earnings estimates ever so slightly, but the price target has taken a tumble, falling to $78.35 from $84.35 previously. Neutral.
Target price is $78.35 Current Price is $70.12 Difference: $8.23
If RHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $78.32, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 259.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 257.8, implying annual growth of 18.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 135.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 286.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 289.8, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 153.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -
Citi analysts saw a "solid end to the year" with December quarter production better than expected for bauxite but disappointing for copper. Incorporating updated prices into their modeling has triggered 3% increases for forecasts, pushing up the price target by $1 to $65.
Neutral rating retained as Citi continues to foresee iron ore's strength will fade throughout 2017. As net debt is shrinking, the analysts anticipate a US$3bn capital management program to be announced at the February 8 result.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $2.3
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY16:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates RIO as Buy (1) -
The analysts note Rio Tinto has finished 2016 on strong footing though a lower realised price for iron ore during the December quarter has triggered minor cuts to forecasts.
Price target remains at $66. Buy rating retained. The analysts laud the "sector leading production growth".
Target price is $66.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $3.3
If RIO meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 174.40 cents and EPS of 376.98 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 326.00 cents and EPS of 539.31 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -
Rio's Dec Q iron ore production was in line with the broker's forecast but coal, copper, alumina and aluminium all beat. It was a solid result.
The broker continues to point out that were it to apply current spot commodity prices to valuation, material upside would result. The broker is forecasting a significant pullback ahead in the iron ore price but earnings and dividend forecasts would double at spot.
Outperform and $73 target retained.
Target price is $73.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $10.3
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 186.48 cents and EPS of 367.59 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 194.53 cents and EPS of 387.71 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -
Rio's Dec Q production met or exceeded guidance on all commodities bar copper. The broker does not expect the production issues which impacted on copper to be recurring. Lower than expected realised iron ore prices can be attributed to contract lags, the broker notes.
The broker retains Overweight and a $71 target on production upside, productivity and excess cash. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $8.3
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 174.40 cents and EPS of 375.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 194.53 cents and EPS of 512.48 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -
Analysts at Morgans saw a "good" December quarter production report, with iron ore living up to revised expectation and several smaller divisions performing slightly better than expectations.
More importantly, the analysts note, commodity prices remain at elevated levels. This bodes well for future earnings. On the back of increased estimates, the valuation/target increases 9% to $57.16
Morgans thinks Rio Tinto may well surprise with a higher dividend and/or share buyback at the upcoming annual result in February. Hold.
Target price is $57.16 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: minus $5.54 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 187.82 cents and EPS of 326.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 198.55 cents and EPS of 397.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett observes the December quarter production report proved in-line with expectations but also that Rio Tinto's valuation metrics continue to screen attractively, so the stockbroker grabs the opportunity to reiterate the Accumulate rating. Target price jumps to $70 from $67.
There remain plenty of supportive factors, in the stockbroker's opinion, including domestic investors still underweight the mining sector, China data showing a positive trend for commodity demand, and higher spot prices triggering the next round(s) of market consensus upgrades.
Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $7.3
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 214.65 cents and EPS of 359.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 313.93 cents and EPS of 474.91 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
It is UBS's view that the December quarter production report marked a "solid finish to 2016". The subsequent upgrade to forecasts has lifted the price target by $1 to $71. Copper disappointed. Rating remains Buy.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $62.70 Difference: $8.3
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.90, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
UBS forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 187.82 cents and EPS of 375.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 362.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 186.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 279.05 cents and EPS of 554.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 485.1, implying annual growth of 33.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 298.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates RRL as Hold (3) -
December quarter production met expectations and the analysts believe full year guidance is achievable. Deutsche Bank labels Regis Resources a "solid business with healthy returns", however a weaker share price is required to move away from the Hold rating.
The analysts expect the company to report operational earnings (EBITDA) of $107m and net profits of $52m for the first half of FY17. Price target gains 10c to $2.80.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -
Regis' Dec Q production met the broker's forecast and costs were 6% lower. Operations are stable and cash is building from earnings margins nearing 50%.
The broker's Underweight rating had been in place on the basis of the market fully pricing in assumed mine life extensions. The broker concedes mine lives may well be increased and/or gold prices can move higher and as such has upgraded to Equal-weight, while still preferring other junior gold exposures. Target $3.05.
Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates RRL as Hold (3) -
Stockbroker Morgans labels Regis Resources the "consistent performer". The December quarter proved no different. The stockbroker suggests the company is on track to achieve FY guidance of 300-330koz at all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of $980-1,050/oz.
Incorporating revised FX and gold price forecasts has decreased the price target to $3.29 (was $3.85). This remains one of Morgans' favourite exposures to the gold sector. Hold rating retained.
Target price is $3.29 Current Price is $3.30 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.0, implying annual growth of 11.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 31.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -
The broker has conducted an extensive review of Treasury Wine and as a result has upgraded to Overweight. Having surveyed Chinese consumers, the broker believes the market continues to under-appreciate the company's opportunity in China.
Treasury is also well leveraged to wine price increases which have been underway, and an underperforming Americas business is poised to turn around, the broker believes. Target rises to $13 from $10.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.47 Difference: $2.53
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.84, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.2, implying annual growth of 52.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.10 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.7, implying annual growth of 19.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates VRT as Neutral (3) -
UBS has reduced FY16 EPS estimate by 9.5%, while slightly increasing forecasts for subsequent years. No other changes have been made. Neutral. Target $8.25.
Target price is $8.25 Current Price is $6.25 Difference: $2
If VRT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.52, suggesting upside of 20.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.4, implying annual growth of -1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.0, implying annual growth of 13.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -
In the wake of Whitehaven's Dec Q production report, the broker notes the company has wiped off $1bn in debt in 18 months and should be net cash by mid-2017. Yet enterprise value remains attractive on a 20% free cash flow yield.
The broker suggests to investors that waiting for a lower price point to jump on may prove a fruitless endeavour. Overweight retained. Target rises to $3.60 from $3.10.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.87 Difference: $0.73
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 2119.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.2, implying annual growth of -13.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WPL as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -
Ord Minnett has turned more positive on the resumption of growth at Woodside Petroleum and has upgraded the stock to Accumulate from Hold, while lifting the price target to $36 from $30.
On a risk-weighted basis, the analysts project attributable production could grow 25% over the next decade to 115–120m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) in 2025. One note of caution: Royal Dutch/Shell's 13% equity stake remains an overhang for the stock.
Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $32.00 Difference: $4
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.72, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY16:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY16 dividend of 96.59 cents and EPS of 118.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 139.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2. |
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 136.84 cents and EPS of 174.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.0, implying annual growth of 15.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 128.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AGL - | AGL ENERGY | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $22.17 |
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $22.17 | ||
| AMC - | AMCOR | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $14.95 |
| ANZ - | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $30.40 |
| BEN - | BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK | Downgrade to Sell from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $13.24 |
| BSE - | BASE RESOURCES | Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.24 |
| BTT - | BT INVEST MANAGEMENT | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.10 |
| CTX - | CALTEX AUSTRALIA | Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $29.90 |
| ORA - | ORORA | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $2.99 |
| PGH - | PACT GROUP | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $6.60 |
| PPT - | PERPETUAL | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $47.63 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $47.63 | ||
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $47.63 | ||
| RCR - | RCR TOMLINSON | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.83 |
| RHC - | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $70.12 |
| RIO - | RIO TINTO | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $62.70 |
| Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $62.70 | ||
| RRL - | REGIS RESOURCES | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $3.30 |
| Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.30 | ||
| Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $3.30 | ||
| TWE - | TREASURY WINE ESTATES | Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $10.47 |
| VRT - | VIRTUS HEALTH | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $6.25 |
| WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $2.87 |
| WPL - | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $32.00 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 12 |
| 2. Accumulate | 3 |
| 3. Hold | 13 |
| 5. Sell | 1 |
Wednesday 18 January 2017
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the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe
and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors
with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading
market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.
This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not
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base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though
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