Australian Broker Call

UBS rates 360 as Buy (1) -

UBS raises its price target for Life360 to US$71 from US$57 and retains a Buy rating, citing reduced platform risk after Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference did not signal competitive expansion into location tracking.

The analysts observe strong early results from Life360’s new advertising initiatives, including Place Ads and Uplift, which leverage the platform’s high user engagement and location-sharing penetration.

Uber’s campaign using Place Ads booked over 100,000 rides, while Uplift offers advertisers deterministic footfall tracking and household-level attribution, notes UBS.

The broker sees the ads business as a key growth lever alongside potential tailwinds from US App Store fee reform and new verticals like pet and elder monitoring.

Current Price is $31.58. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $31.63, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ADT as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Adriatic Metals has received a formal takeover offer from Dundee Precious Metals via a UK scheme of arrangement, valuing each CDI at $5.56 and the company at $1.9bn.

Morgans observes the offer represents a 48% premium to Adriatic’s pre-speculation share price and 11% to the last close, and exceeds its base-case risked valuation of $5.42/CDI, though it remains below the unrisked valuation of $5.98.

The analyst considers the bid broadly fair, factoring in remaining operational and metallurgical risks at the Vares Project, despite a supportive price deck and district-scale potential.

Morgans raises its target price to $5.46 from $4.74 and upgrades to Hold from Trim.

Target price is $5.46 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.01
If ADT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Auckland International Airport experienced 3% traffic growth in May on a year earlier, with international up 4% and domestic lagging at 1% growth, Citi details.

Over the month, domestic seat capacity advanced by 2% as load factors slipped by -0.9%.

The analyst notes FY25 passenger guidance for international of 10.5m is unlikely to be achieved, as it suggests over 20% growth for traffic in June.

Citi lowers the forecast for international passengers to 10.33m, with domestic remaining in line with guidance at 8.4m.

Buy rating retained, as the analyst believes a recovery in seat capacity and the capex investment should deliver robust earnings growth into FY26 and beyond. Target price set at NZ$9.

Current Price is $7.46. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Citi is disappointed by the size of the decline in like-for-like sales of -2.5% in the last 16 weeks, against growth of 2.2% in the first seven weeks of 2H25 for Accent Group, despite more favourable annual comparisons for 2H24.

Management has lowered earnings before interest and tax guidance to $108m–$111m, which is lower than consensus by -18%. Tougher trading conditions and more promotions were highlighted as impacting margins.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by -28.2% for FY25 and -28.7% for FY26. A Buy rating is retained, as Citi anticipates a more favourable consumer environment over the next year alongside a lower valuation ascribed to the stock.

Target price falls to $1.67 from $2.61.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $0.32
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.11, suggesting upside of 54.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings has won contracts for BHP Group's ((BHP)) copper logistics transport in South Australia, which are expected to start in October 2025, with revenue estimated, Citi notes, at $1.58bn for the first 10 years.

The analyst explains the sales contribution is estimated at around $120m–$130m in the first full year based on 5% growth per annum from inflation and copper volumes growth of between 2%–3%.

Some circa $100m is required, the broker states, of which at least $40m is additional. This translates to a slight decline in forecast earnings before interest and tax of -$10m or -1% for FY26 based on a cost of capital around 10%. The impact on net profit after tax is negligible, Citi highlights.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.3
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings signed a 10-15 year supply contract with BHP Group ((BHP)) at Olympic Dam and its associated mines, which Macquarie notes is significantly longer than other bulk portfolio contracts.

The company will employ $100m of capital on the rail services, with $80m of this expected to be new spend. The broker estimates the contract will add 1.1% to FY26 EBITDA based on a return profile of 10-12% per annum. 

Overall, the contract is positive news, but the analyst reminds headwind could come from the repricing of the KML contract and possible closure of Phosphate Hill.

Neutral. Target rises to $3.39 from $3.32.

Target price is $3.39 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.29
If AZJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -

Aurizon Holdings has secured a long-term haulage and logistics contract with BHP Group's ((BHP)) copper South Australia assets, averaging $150m in annual revenue over the first 10 years.

The agreement spans up to 15 years and includes rail haulage, subcontracted road transport and port management for 1.3mt of freight annually, including 300-400kt of copper, observes UBS.

Aurizon is expected to invest around -$100m, with a $40m rail terminal at Pimba as the largest component, while leveraging existing assets to limit new capital outlay, explain the analysts.

While UBS views the deal as a positive step amid recent setbacks in the Bulk division, it sees limited scope for earnings upgrades as the contract appears necessary to meet current segment expectations.

UBS retains its price target of $3.20 and Neutral rating.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.1
If AZJ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.31, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Bega Cheese is seeking informal merger clearance from the ACCC for the potential acquisition of Fonterra Oceania. The company stated it does not require Foreign Investment Review Board approval.

The broker notes Lactalis is also seeking informal merger clearance. The main hurdle would be whether dairy farmers can sell milk to at least two processors, and the broker believes ACCC could require site divestitures to get the clearance.

The analyst sees synergy opportunities in supply chain, indirect procurement and corporate costs, and equally importantly, highlights the current management has a track record in delivering synergies.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $6.40.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $0.88
If BGA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOE as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) has secured US$200m in deal financing overnight, which equals 11.6m units at a premium to net asset value of US$17.25 against the market price of US$16.98.

The U3O8 spot price is now trading at US$76/lb, the broker states, as traders move into a thinly traded market.

At current spot pricing levels, this equals around 2.6mlbs of U3O8 will be bought by SPUT, and price momentum is likely to bring more utilities into the market the analyst explains, which should further accelerate price rises for U3O8.

Citi remains Buy rated on Boss Energy with a $4.60 target price.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.33 Difference: $0.27
If BOE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.16, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CQR as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights retail REITs outperformed other property sectors, delivering an average total shareholder return of 19.2% in the year to June 2025. 

Lack of supply, improving total returns and a return to institutional investors were cited as some of the reasons. 

The broker believes Charter Hall Retail REIT has built a defensive and resilient portfolio with exposure to convenience-based retail assets. 

Accumulate. Target lifted to $4.39 from $3.86.

Target price is $4.39 Current Price is $4.07 Difference: $0.32
If CQR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.90, suggesting downside of -4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DBI as Buy (1) -

Citi explains the mismatch between inflation-linked revenue and longer-dated debt costs as yield curves have risen, i.e. higher yields further out on the bond duration for Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure.

Despite the mismatch, the analyst forecasts distributions can continue to rise despite a decline in net profit after tax, as higher interest costs are included in estimates with hedging rolling off. Citi expects the cost of debt to rise to 8% from 5.6%, resulting in lower EPS estimates for FY26–FY28.

Positively, the necessary capital expenditure (NECAP) will rise, which will lift revenue and permit distributions to continue to rise.

Brookfield is also divesting around 22.3% of Dalrymple at a discount of -7.9%, which is just under half of its holding. Post the trade, it will remain the largest shareholder at around 26.25%.

Target price rises to $4.20 from $4.15. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.36
If DBI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi observes Amazon's $20bn data centre investment is anticipated to underwrite growth in the sector, and the joint statement between Amazon Web Services (AWS) and the Prime Minister confirms a rise from current investments of $13bn over 2025–2029.

Amazon has also committed to three renewable energy projects at 170MW in Victoria and Queensland in partnership with European Energy.

The analyst views the commitment as positive for growing data centre demand across Australia and potentially benefiting Goodman Group and its peers.

Buy rated with a $40 target price.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $34.16 Difference: $5.84
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.17, suggesting upside of 4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HDN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

Ord Minnett highlights retail REITs outperformed other property sectors, delivering an average total shareholder return of 19.2% in the year to June 2025. 

Lack of supply, improving total returns and a return to institutional investors were cited as some of the reasons. 

The broker believes HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's assets are of high quality with strong population and income growth in its locations.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target lifted to $1.46 from $1.30.

Target price is $1.46 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.16
If HDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates IGL as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the outlook is positive for IVE Group with new contract wins and a moderation in paper imports decline, suggesting print demand is stabilising.

The company won a two-year Sydney Swans deal to support the AFL Club's printing, local marketing and content creation needs, and its packaging arm signed multiple new FMCG contracts.

A fall in postal volume and a 13% hike in stamp prices from mid-2025 is a headwind, the broker notes, as the company will have to push harder to ensure timely catalogue delivery. 

The broker sees upside risk to the FY25 underlying net profit guidance of $47-50m, with its own forecast at $52m.

Buy. Target unchanged at $3.40.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $0.69
If IGL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was surprised by ioneer's capital raise last week of US$16m via institutional placement and launch of US$3.3m share purchase plan.

The broker expected the US$14m cash as of end-March to be sufficient until end-2025, but reckons the equity raise suggests the strategic partnering process will take longer than the estimated four months.

The analyst remains of the view Rio Tinto ((RIO)) will be a logical bidder as the strategic partner for Rhyolite Ridge or some of the offtakers from the project.

Speculative Buy. Target cut to 19c from 20c on equity dilution and cash boost.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.11 Difference: $0.08
If INR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Lunnon Metals published a scoping study for the Lady Herial deposit at the Kambalda Gold and Nickel Project, which is in line with Shaw and Partners' expectations. 

The study outlines 18koz gold production over a seven-month life of mine, and the broker notes it will generate $45m in free cash flow after just -$1.2m of start-up capital.

An agreement with Gold Fields for processing is assumed in the study, with the broker expecting a successful outcome in the coming weeks.

The analyst believes the current share price has not factored in upside from gold production and free cash flow.

Buy. Target unchanged at 60c.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.39
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LNW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has run numbers over Grover Gaming which was recently acquired by Light & Wonder, and is forecasting US$196m EBITDA contribution in 2028.

The broker notes the business provides an entry into North American ePull Tabs, an attractive industry and similar to scratch-it.

The broker reckons its forecast from Grover Gaming is conservative and the 2028 adjusted EBITDA forecast is -3% below the company's target but 5% above consensus. 

Minor revisions to FY25-27 EPS forecasts on non-operational changes. Outperform. Target rises to $188 from $187.

Target price is $188.00 Current Price is $126.28 Difference: $61.72
If LNW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $194.00, suggesting upside of 51.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MTS as Buy (1) -

UBS expects Metcash to report FY25 underlying profit of $275.1m, aligning with guidance of $273-77m, and forecasts sales of $19.35bn, a rise of 6.4% year-on-year.

Underlying earnings (EBIT) are forecast at $506.5m (2.1% increase), also in line with guidance. Operating cash flow is expected to be $446.5m with an 87.9% cash realisation ratio.

UBS highlights food sales growth has slowed due to a sharp decline in tobacco sales, while EBIT margins have modestly improved thanks to cost savings and a more favourable sales mix.

Hardware remains under pressure from a soft trade market and weak retail conditions, explains the broker.

FY25 hardware sales are forecast at $3.53bn (up 1.6%), with subdued like-for-like growth and negative mix effects dragging on Total Tools performance. 

UBS retains its Buy rating and $4.00 target.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: $0.36
If MTS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights the NDIS market opportunity for nib Holdings was based on participant growth, increased use of plan managers, operating leverage and M&A.

However, participant growth has stalled due to a rise in fraud detection, and the lack of scheme reform has dampened M&A opportunities.

While it is a good outcome for the scheme, the broker notes, revenue growth will become challenging for the company in the short to medium term.

Underperform. Target unchanged at $5.55.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.50 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) has secured US$200m in deal financing overnight, which equals 11.6m units at a premium to net asset value of US$17.25 against the market price of US$16.98.

The U3O8 spot price is now trading at US$76/lb, the broker states, as traders move into a thinly traded market.

At current spot pricing levels, this equals around 2.6mlbs of U3O8 will be bought by SPUT, and price momentum is likely to bring more utilities into the market the analyst explains, which should further accelerate price rises for U3O8.

Citi remains Buy rated on Paladin Energy with a $10.10 target price.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $7.28 Difference: $2.82
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.49, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Hold (3) -

In another update, Peninsula Energy announced it had terminated three of its six sales contracts through mutual consent, and negotiations are continuing with the remaining customers.

Shaw and Partners assesses this as a positive development as the company can now benefit from potentially higher uranium prices.

The analyst reiterated optimism about the Lance project and expects the company to scale up to 1.8Mlb in line with the plan, though the ramp-up schedule, contract book and financing remain unclear at this stage.

No changes to forecasts, with the broker awaiting more updates from the company.

Hold. Target unchanged at $1.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $0.38
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

After visits to Duketon and Tropicana, analysts at UBS expect Regis Resources to reach the upper end of FY25 production guidance of 350-380koz, with the broker forecasting 378koz.

FY26 guidance is expected in late July and UBS anticipates a similar range, with costs (AISC) expected to remain near $2,500/oz.

The broker forecasts Duketon and Tropicana mine lives have been extended by around two years each, supported by reserve and resource upgrades, and McPhillamys is now included in the base case modeling.

UBS anticipates a return to dividend payments (unfranked initially) with the August result.

The target price is raised to $4.75 from $4.20. The rating is downgraded to Sell following recent share price strength.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.31, suggesting downside of -9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SNT as Speculative Buy (1) -

Syntara reported another update on its ongoing phase 2 trial in 16 myelofibrosis patients receiving SNT-5505 in combination with roxolitinib, and Bell Potter reckons the result is impressive.

The broker notes around half the patients who were unlikely to show improvements from ruxolitinib alone achieved meaningful improvements in the symptoms with the combination.

The broker believes the stock is undervalued based on the myelofibrosis program alone.

Speculative Buy. Target unchanged at 12c.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.063
If SNT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has received a non-binding indicative offer from a consortium led by a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Carlyle at $8.89 per share cash.

The deal is subject to due diligence and FIRB approval, with Citi stating approval might be a considerable challenge given the company is a key domestic gas supplier.

In the absence of a higher offer, the board intends to recommend shareholders vote in favour of the deal. Citi believes the deal is attractive for shareholders as Santos is transitioning to a capex-heavy period which is believed to be under appreciated by the market.

Citi notes the takeover price of $8.89 compares to the analyst's discounted cash flow valuation of $7.27 per share. 

Buy retained for Santos. Target price lifted to $8.89 from $6.50.

Target price is $8.89 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $1.17
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Santos has received a non-binding indicative proposal from a consortium led by a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Carlyle at US$5.76/share cash ($8.85).

The offer follows two confidential proposals in March and is a "final non-binding indicative offer" now. The broker expects the due diligence phase to last for 4-8 weeks.

The price looks well supported, the broker notes, but regulatory concerns appear overdone.

Outperform. Target lifted to $8.85 from $8.50 to align with the offer price.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $1.13
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates STO as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Morgans downgrades its rating for Santos to Trim from Hold due to capped upside following a non-binding $8.89/share bid from a consortium led by a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and Carlyle and elevated completion risk.

The broker's $6.90 target is unchanged.

The analyst considers the offer fair on valuation but notes it sits at the lower end of prior LNG M&A transactions valuations and lacks a control premium.

Morgans expresses concern at the Santos board’s early support of the bid before due diligence, potentially reducing negotiating leverage and deterring rival bids.

The analyst also highlights significant regulatory hurdles, with the deal subject to FIRB review and national security scrutiny under the Security of Critical Infrastructure Act given Santos’ strategic GLNG assets.

With the stock now trading between Morgans' valuation of $6.90 and the $8.89 bid, the broker sees only modest upside versus steep downside if the transaction fails.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates STO as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Santos received an indicative takeover offer from a consortium that includes Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund and Carlyle Group for US$5.76/share ($8.89).

The broker reckons the share price didn't rise to the offer price on the announcement, likely because investors see risks of FIRB approval and the long timeline to get various approvals. The broker, however, believes the regulatory risks are overdone.

In Ord Minnett's view, a change in ownership is unlikely to lead to a cut in domestic gas supply. The broker believes any undertaking to regulators to divest non-core assets wouldn't be an issue, as Beach Energy ((BPT)) would likely be ready to acquire them.

The broker expects the deal to be completed in the March quarter of 2026.

Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target lifted to $7.90 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $0.18
If STO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates STO as Buy (1) -

Santos has received a non-binding all-cash offer at an implied price of $8.89 (US$5.76 per share) from a consortium led by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company subsidiary, XRG, and Carlyle Group.

UBS notes the board intends to recommend the proposal to shareholders, which is subject to due diligence and FIRB approval in Australia, as well as regulatory approvals in PNG and the US.

Santos is considered a good fit with XRG's five-year plan to develop a top-five integrated global gas and LNG business with capacity at 20–25Mtpa by 2035.

At this stage, UBS anticipates completion would take around six to nine months.

Target price remains at $7.90. Buy rated.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.72 Difference: $0.18
If STO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Tourism Holdings Rentals received a non-binding indicative offer from a BGH Capital-led consortium that includes Luke and Karl Trouchet from the family that founded Apollo Tourism, which later merged with this company.

The consortium already bought 19.99% shares, consisting of 11.8% held by the Trouchet family and 8.2% via block trades.

While the takeover price of NZ$2.30 was at a 58% premium to the pre-bid traded price, Ord Minnett notes, it is still at a material discount to relevant global peers. 

Buy. Target unchanged at NZ$2.92.

Current Price is $2.13. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting downside of -18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TPG as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett lifted FY25-27 EPS estimates for TPG Telecom following Vodafone's move to increase prices for post-paid mobile subscribers from July 1. This compares with the broker's expectation for stable pricing until FY26.

The broker also discussed the company's options from the $4.7bn net proceeds from the sale of some businesses to Vocus, noting it will have around $2.0-2.7bn left after paying down debt.

Share buybacks and capital returns are among the options, apart from share buybacks from key stakeholders.

Commentary suggests a special dividend would likely be unattractive given the lack of franking credits. Accumulate. Target rises to $5.75 from $5.25.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.44 Difference: $0.31
If TPG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources