Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ALX as Hold (3) -

Morgans lowers its target for Atlas Arteria to $5.02 from $5.42 due to a combination of a higher Australian dollar forecast and a reduction in assumed IFM Investors' takeover parameters. The Hold rating is retained.

Adjustments to the broker's forecasts for the APPR capital management initiatives have a relatively immaterial impact on the business-as-usual (BAU) valuation.

On a BAU basis, Morgans believes a DPS of 40cps/yrear is sustainable. The company's 1H result is due on August 29. 

Target price is $5.02 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If ALX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.42, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Tightening cap rates for Abacus Storage King are against the sectoral trend, highlights Citi, after the REIT reported positive valuation growth via higher income growth.

While compressed cap rates for Abacus Storage King and National Storage REIT potentially indicates a turn in the cap rate cycle for both REITs, the broker awaits more clarity on underlying inflation in Australia.

Citi remains positive on medium-term fundamentals and underlying earnings growth for both REITs.

The Buy rating and $1.40 target are unchanged for Abacus Storage King.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.265
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AZJ as Hold (3) -

Aurizon Holdings' FY24 result is due on August 21. Morgans expects group EPS to grow by 16% in FY24 and 25% in FY25.

Visible earnings growth drivers for FY24-26 should lead to a recovery in dividends, as well as de-gearing, suggests the broker.

Hold. Target rises to $3.77 from $3.75.

Target price is $3.77 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.19
If AZJ meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy (High Risk) (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the successful $85m capital raising at $3.30 per share by Bannerman Energy to fund the design and early works at the Etango-8 uranium project in Namibia.

The analyst estimates another -$415m in capital will be needed to bring the project into production with a strategic partner a possibility to assist with the funding.

The Buy, High Risk rating and $7.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $4.26
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BSL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie adjusts the earnings outlook for BlueScope Steel on the back of "soggy" steel markets with weakness in China and lower US steel prices.

The broker lowers the FY25 EBITDA forecasts to the bottom end of management's guidance range and although the analyst likes the medium term prospects for the company, EPS estimates are reduced by -7.3% and -24.5% for FY24 and FY25.

The target price is cut to $26.10 from $29.45 and the Outperform rating is unchanged. BlueScope Steel is due to report FY24 earnings on August 19.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $19.78 Difference: $6.32
If BSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAJ as Outperform (1) -

In a sector troubled by post covid issues, Macquarie is "scanning for growth" in Australian diagnostic services.

The broker states imaging benefits grew above GP and pathology in the 10 years up to FY19 and post covid.

Looking ahead, Macquarie forecasts industry benefits to grow at circa 7% and 6% for FY25 and FY26/27, respectively, underpinned by population growth, aging, utilisation, and indexation.

Integral Diagnostics is the preferred exposure in the sector.

Outperform rating and 32c target retained for Capitol Health.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.02
If CAJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

CAR Group's wholly owned subsidiary in South Korea, Encar, has raised the price by 10% for its Guarantee offering. This increase
follows the 10% price increase that was put through for ‘Standard’ ads last November, notes Citi.

As the Guarantee represents around 40% of Encar’s revenue, and the price increase is effective from August, the broker forecasts an around 4% increase for FY25 growth.

The Neutral rating and target price of $34.70 are retained.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $33.95 Difference: $0.75
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.18, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett highlights the recent data centre purchase by Centuria Industrial REIT for $39m on a 6.5% yield which increases the group's exposure to data centres to $456m.

The broker also notes an improvement in total leasing, reaching 149,000 m2 over the 2H2024 which is forecast to boost occupancy from 97.2% in the March quarter.

The data centre was purchased from Global Data Centre Group ((GDC)) and is fully leased to Fujitsu with 1.5years left on the lease and Fujitsu has an option to extend the lease by another five years.

A Hold rating and $3.30 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.28
If CIP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CUV as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Awaiting FY24 results and more information regarding US clinic growth and demand, Morgans decides to downgrade its rating for Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals to Hold from Add in the expectation of short-term stock price volatility.

Recent share price strength was also factored into the broker's decision to downgrade. The $16.00 target is unchanged.

The analysts caution investors Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals is not a "set-and-forget" stock given the risk around alternative therapies and potential generic competition in time.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $15.51 Difference: $0.49
If CUV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CXO as Neutral (3) -

Core Lithium reported stronger-than-expected 4Q24 results, with 33kt of spodumene concentrate shipments, 16% above Macquarie's expectations.

The company ended the quarter with $87.6m in cash, 13% better than the broker forecast.

Finniss operations are suspended which Macquarie believes is due to weak spodumene pricing.

Adjusting for the 4Q24 update, the analyst's FY24 EPS forecast has been revised upwards by 9% due to stronger production and cash balance.

Neutral rating and 9c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.09 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Morgans lowers its FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by -6% and -1%, respectively, after allowing for the acquisition of the remaining 61.9% of Lonsec for around -$197m. Strategically the acquisition makes sense, but the broker is wary of the full price paid.

The broker's near-term earnings changes are offset by increased long-term valuation growth assumptions, and the target edges up to $2.57 from $2.56.

As upside to the analyst's target is now more limited after a share price rise, the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.16
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners reported net inflows of $6.5bn for 2Q2024, with management highlighting a "strong pipeline" ahead and market movements underwriting an increase in funds under management of 4% or $5.7bn, Macquarie states.

The broker is forecasting inflows of $3.9bn in 3Q2024 and $3bn in the 2H2024 and has raised the 2025 net flow forecasts to $5.4bn and then flattening out to around 1.2% growth from 2026.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts by 4.3% for FY24 and 8.7% for FY25 and views the potential 4.5% shareholder sell-down as a reason for a re-rating with increased liquidity and inclusion in both the ASX200/ASX300.

Outperform rating unchanged. The target price lifts to $3.05 from $2.80.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.2
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GQG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett believes GQG Partners delivered an "excellent" June quarter with FUM up 3.7% over the month and up 8.5% on the previous quarter.

The 2Q2024 inflows of $6.5bn are the largest reported since listing and the broker adjusts EPS forecasts by 5% to 9% over the next two years due to better-than-expected FUM and flows.

The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to the strong share price performance over the last 12-months.

Target price is lifted to $3.20 from $2.85 on the earnings forecast upgrades.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.35
If GQG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLS as Neutral (3) -

In a sector troubled by post covid issues, Macquarie is "scanning for growth" in Australian diagnostic services.

The broker states imaging benefits grew above GP and pathology in the 10 years up to FY19 and post covid.

Looking ahead, Macquarie forecasts industry benefits to grow at circa 7% and 6% for FY25 and FY26/27, respectively, underpinned by population growth, aging, utilisation, and indexation.

Integral Diagnostics is the preferred exposure in the sector.

No changes to the broker's earnings forecasts for Healius, and assuming Lumus is sold, Macquarie forecasts lost earnings will be more than offset by debt reduction and improved profitability initiatives.

Neutral rating and a $1.45 target price unchanged.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.01
If HLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 9.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IDX as Outperform (1) -

In a sector troubled by post covid issues, Macquarie is "scanning for growth" in Australian diagnostic services.

The broker states imaging benefits grew above GP and pathology in the 10 years up to FY19 and post covid.

Looking ahead, Macquarie forecasts industry benefits to grow at circa 7% and 6% for FY25 and FY26/27, respectively, underpinned by population growth, aging, utilisation, and indexation.

Integral Diagnostics is the preferred exposure in the sector, and the broker expects the merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) to produce upside in revenue growth and improved cost metrics.

The target price is raised to $2.85 from $2.65 and an Outperform rating retained. The current forecasts do not include Capitol Health.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.26
If IDX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.40, suggesting downside of -6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IGO as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Bell Potter believes the current IGO share price implies long-term lithium prices of US$1,450/t SC6 and US$20,000/t lithium hydroxide, which are significantly higher than spot prices of US$1,000/t and US$12,000/t, respectively.

In the broker's view, considerable further short-term downside risk remains for the IGO share price. The target is lowered to $5.15 from $7.60 and the rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

Separately, management announced the receipt of a $159m dividend from Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA).

This payment provides confidence in TLEA’s ability to generate returns to shareholders against the current lithium price backdrop, suggests the broker, while executing committed expansion programs at Greenbushes.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $5.70 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Add (1) -

Morgans lowers its forecasts, after management at Inghams Group recently highlighted 2H24 trading conditions were challenging due to normal seasonality and ongoing inflationary headwinds.

The company also noted a shift towards in-home dining (Retail) from out-of-home (QSR and Food Service) channels due to cost of living pressures.

The broker's target slips to $4.25 from $4.40 and the Add rating is unchanged. As QSR volumes have been relatively resilient over time, Morgans expects them to bounce back at some point during FY25, given the tax cuts and other stimulus measures.

Inghams Group reports FY24 results on August 23.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.66 Difference: $0.59
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.23, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett is looking for short term softening in the lottery industry to revert to 5% growth p.a. over the longer term, the rate since FY20, and points to better industry data, including The Weekday Windfall, which has increased mid-week game revenue by 24% since May.

The broker prefers Lottery Corp ((TLC)) over Jumbo Interactive and is forecasting 4% EPS growth in FY24, declining -4% in FY25 for Jumbo Interactive due to "stock specific issues".

A Lighten rating and $14.90 target price are maintained.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $16.17 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.47, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Results from Meteoric Resources' scoping study on the Caldeira ion-adsorption clay rare earth project in Minas Gerais confirm to Bell Potter the project is of superior quality.

The project, which makes an around 50% operating margin at spot before accounting for royalties and transport costs, can operate through all stages of the pricing cycle, suggests the broker.

The analysts make a case for higher NdPr prices in the future based on quartely (near) breakeven earnings from China Northern, which accounts for circa 70% of Chinese rare earth mining capacity. It's thought the lack of profit indicates a floor for NdPr pricing.

The Speculative Buy rating is maintained, but the target is lowered to 40c from 50c after Bell Potter incorporates higher capital costs and associated equity financing into forecasts and makes adjustments to pricing formulas.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.245
If MEI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 158% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 223.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Meteoric Resources detailed the scoping study for the Caldeira project which highlights an open pit operation scenario with 5mtpa throughput and a 20-year mine life.

Macquarie notes higher recovery rates and lower operating expenses are a positive, but the capital investment required is higher than expected at -US$403m.

The pre-feasibility study is due to be completed by the end of 2024, and the broker's calculations reveal Caldeira's valuation is more sensitive to NdPr prices than the capital investment cost.

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by 36% for FY25 and lowers the target price by -22% to 36c. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.205
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 132% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.42, suggesting upside of 223.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NSR as Buy (1) -

Tightening cap rates for peer/competitor Abacus Storage King are against the sectoral trend, highlights Citi, after the REIT reported positive valuation growth via higher income growth.

While compressed cap rates for National Storage REIT and Abacus Storage King potentially indicates a turn in the cap rate cycle for both REITs, the broker awaits more clarity on underlying inflation in Australia.

Citi remains positive on medium-term fundamentals and underlying earnings growth for both REITs.

The Buy rating and target price of $2.60 are retained for National Storage REIT.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $0.27
If NSR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.38, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Buy (1) -

According to Citi, Premier Investments represents a unique opportunity for shareholders to participate in potential earnings upside from various synergies through its holding in Myer ((MYR)).

Should the proposed acquisition of Premier’s apparel brands go ahead, the broker believes the combined group could benefit from better buying terms from scale and Premier’s product expertise.

Around $25m of potential earnings benefit would arise, suggest the analysts, if there were a 5-percentage point uplift in Myer’s private label apparel gross profit margin.

The Buy rating and $36 target are maintained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $29.71 Difference: $6.29
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.20, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RED as Outperform (1) -

Red 5 reported 4Q24 gold sales at 110.8koz which came in slightly above the Macquarie estimate of 109.6koz.

The broker points to a stronger FY24 net cash and bullion position post-merger with Silver Lake Resources at $361m, above the analyst's expectations of $307m.

The company also repaid its debt facility of $92.9m in early FY25 and has 291.2koz of gold hedged at an average price of $2,769/oz, in line with the Macquarie forecast.

Outperform rating and 55c target unchanged.

Target price is $0.55 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.155
If RED meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RMS as Outperform (1) -

Ramelius Resources reported results which broadly met the Macquarie analyst's expectations with 82.1koz of gold in the 4Q24 and FY24 production of 293koz, meeting revised guidance.

All-in-sustaining-costs are anticipated to come in at the lower end of the guidance range. The broker highlights cash/bullion holding rose $40m in the quarter to $447m.

Higher than forecast stamp duty charges tipped free cash flow down -$12m, below the Macquarie estimate.

The broker's EPS forecasts are tweaked by 7% for FY24 with no change in the target price at $2.10. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.155
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RMS as Buy (1) -

Ramelius Resources updated 4Q24 production guidance and FY24 guidance to 293koz which is above the Shaw and Partners forecast of 290koz.

The company also expects all-in-sustaining-costs to be lower than guided due to the strong performance and below the broker's estimate of $1,600/oz.

Shaw and Partners states Ramelius Resources remains one of preferred gold exposures and reiterates its Buy rating alongside an unchanged $2.33 target.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.385
If RMS meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting upside of 16.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi raises its target for Regis Resources to $1.90 from $1.70 on higher gold price forecasts and upgrades to Neutral from Sell after recent share price underperformance.

Management's pre-release of FY24 production was in line with forecasts by the broker and consensus. FY24 Duketon production of 290koz proved within 280-305koz guidance, but Tropicana disappointed with volume of 128koz missing guidance, explains the broker.

The latest reserve statement was underwhelming, according to the analysts, with group resources flat year-on-year at circa 7Moz, inclusive of new areas at Garden Well Main and Rosemont Stage 3.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.09
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

The reported 4Q24 production from Regis Resources at 106.4koz of gold came in below the Macquarie forecast, while cash and bullion at $295m proved in line with the broker's estimates.

The analyst points to a better performance from Duketon, though production at Tropicana fell -10% below expectation with a slower recovery from wet weather.

The FY24 EPS forecast is lowered -8% and there is no change to the $2.90 price target. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $1.09
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Pre-flagged FY24 gold production for Regis Resources of 417.7koz was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's forecast and compared to guidance for between 415-455koz.

Production at Topicana was impacted by rain and missed the analysts’ forecast by -20%, but Duketon exceeded the broker's production forecast by 16%.

Overweight rating. Target $2.10. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.81 Difference: $0.29
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.18, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates RXM as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Rex Minerals has entered into a scheme implementation deed for its major shareholder MACH Metals to acquire all of its shares not already owned at 47c.

Shaw and Partners lowers the target price to 47c reflecting the deal and changes the rating to Hold from Buy. High Risk.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.04
If RXM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

As the ACCC has identified competition impacts around the Stockland's/Supalai acquisition of the Lendlease Group Communities ((LLC)) business, Morgan Stanley assesses potential impacts on its FY25 forecast for Stockland.

The broker's FY25 post-tax funds from operations (FFO) forecast compares to FY24 range from a 2% increase (no sale) to 5% should the entire transaction proceed.

The ACCC review of the acquisition is due to be announced on September 12.

Overweight rating. Target $5.30. In-Line Industry view.

Stockland will report FY24 results on August 22.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.19 Difference: $1.11
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SHL as Neutral (3) -

In a sector troubled by post covid issues, Macquarie is "scanning for growth" in Australian diagnostic services.

The broker states imaging benefits grew above GP and pathology in the 10 years up to FY19 and post covid.

Looking ahead, Macquarie forecasts industry benefits to grow at circa 7% and 6% for FY25 and FY26/27, respectively, underpinned by population growth, aging, utilisation, and indexation.

Integral Diagnostics is the preferred exposure in the sector.

Sonic Healthcare is rated Neutral and the target price is $26.10.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $25.78 Difference: $0.32
If SHL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.79, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie states the leading indicators are mixed in the run up to the upcoming FY24 Transurban Group results.

Strong population growth is offset by softening employment with mixed trends across the states. Registration growth remains robust in Brisbane; Melbourne is slowing but above the long term average, and Sydney is slowing too.

The broker highlights road works impacted NSW alongside the cost of living pressures on registrations.

Macquarie makes minor EPS adjustments of -0.1% for FY24 and 0.4% for FY25.

The target price is lowered to $12.81 from $13.74 due to higher bond yields. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $12.81 Current Price is $12.35 Difference: $0.46
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.48, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie previews the upcoming FY24 results for Lottery Corp on August 21 with expected net profit at $421m, a 24% increase year-over-year and 4% above consensus.

The analyst is looking for evidence of new Australian lottery game innovation, re-pricing, operating cost guidance, and potential dividend policy changes from management in the results.

Recent share price weakness is linked to rising bond yields. Outperform rating and $5.50 target remain.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $0.67
If TLC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett is looking for short term softening in the lottery industry to revert to 5% growth p.a. over the longer term, the rate since FY20, and points to better industry data, including The Weekday Windfall which has increased mid-week game revenue by 24% since May.

The broker forecasts 5% revenue growth for Lottery Corp will generate 10% EPS growth for the company and the 2028 license process in Victoria could be pulled forward due to the position of the State's finances.

Lottery Corp is Buy rated with a $6 target and is preferred over Jumbo Interactive.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $1.17
If TLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.63, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

UBS remains committed to a Buy rating and a $4.40 target price on Telstra Group which has announced between a $2-$4 mobile price increase.

The price changes, starting August 27, see the Postpaid $50 Starter plan as unchanged; the $62 plan will rise 5% to $65; the $72 plan moves up 4% to $75.

On Prepaid, the analyst notes the changes come into effect on October 22 with the $35 plan up 11% to $39; the $45 plan rising 9% to $49 and the $55 plan up 7% to $59.

UBS estimates the Postpaid average revenue per user (ARPU) is likely to rise by around $1.60-$1.90 following today's announced changes and contract price rises for JB HiFi ((JBH)) and Belong.

Prepaid ARPU is forecast by the broker to rise by around $1.47/month ex GST in FY25 against its prior forecast of up $1.05/month.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.65 Difference: $0.75
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.00, suggesting upside of 6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources