Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALL as Buy (1) -

UBS makes alterations to assumptions, assuming venues remain closed until the end of June. After incorporating offsetting factors, including growth in digital, cost initiatives and the deferral of dividends, the broker estimates net profit (NPATA) of $450m in FY20 and $1bn in FY21.

Participation revenue at casinos is expected to recover quickly. UBS retains a Buy rating and reduces the target to $31.50 from $39.60.

Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $23.47 Difference: $8.03
If ALL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.94, suggesting upside of 27.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Sell (5) -

Citi lowers estimates for FY20 earnings per share by -27% and FY21 by -25%, largely on marking to market and increased bank provisioning along with reduced deal flow for AMP Capital.

The earnings profile remains lacklustre, in the broker's opinion.  AMP still appears confident the sale of the life business will be completed but Citi is not so sure. Regulatory approval is outside the company's control.

The broker continues to question the feasibility of returning some capital to shareholders post completion. Sell/High Risk. Target price reduced to $1.40 from $1.70.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.02
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BKL as Underperform (5) -

Blackmores' earnings guidance remains in place but the revenue mix is likely to be materially different than normal, the broker suggests.

Supermarkets and pharmacies remain open, but sales will shift to virus-related products and away from other categories. The broker assumes the net impact on profit will be minimal.

The broker expects Blackmores to cut costs and capex nonetheless but continues to believe the market is overpricing expectations beyond FY20, hence Underperform retained. Target rises to $64 from $55.

Target price is $64.00 Current Price is $81.59 Difference: minus $17.59 (current price is over target).
If BKL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $67.47, suggesting downside of -17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Buy (1) -

UBS reduces FY21 estimates for earnings per share by -29% while long-term forecasts remain intact. The broker assesses revenue is relatively resilient and online sales growth could help mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

The broker assesses this could be more than 25% of the company's sales. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $20.55 from $22.70.

Target price is $20.55 Current Price is $17.95 Difference: $2.6
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.18, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Citi lowers forecasts for earnings per share and underlying EBIT margins following the disruptions to the European automotive business and higher operating costs.

A slowdown in the top line in CHEP Americas is also expected. The broker forecasts FY20 revenue growth of 5.2%, at the lower end of management's target of 5-7%.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $13.80 from $12.30.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: $2.87
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' March quarter met expectations but FY20 guidance has been modestly lowered to 3-5% profit growth. Some 85% of the company's business is related to consumable products transport, the broker notes, making the stock resilient in times of recession.

Brambles is trading around its five-year average PE but the broker retains Outperform on the back of earnings certainty and a balance sheet that supports capital management. Target falls to $12.35 from $12.90.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: $1.42
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley observes Brambles has lost some leverage but remains relatively resilient. Revenue growth of 6% was recorded for the March quarter, slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The continuation of the buyback is another clear positive for the stock. Overweight. Target is $13. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: $2.07
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Morgans found the sales update in line with expectations. Reported sales growth of 3% reflected a stronger US dollar during the third quarter.

Brambles now expects underlying earnings (EBIT) growth of 3-5% in FY20. Morgans assesses, with over 80% of sales generated from consumer staples and grocery supply chains, the business is very defensive.

The on-market buyback should provide support for the share price. Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $12.04 from $12.56.

Target price is $12.04 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: $1.11
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

FY20 earnings (EBIT) guidance has been lowered to growth of 3-5%, primarily because of a temporary closure of the automotive business and higher costs related to a spike in demand from grocery customers.

UBS assesses the stock has already been rewarded for its strong balance sheet and defensive characteristics, outperforming by 20% in the year to date.

Amid limited upside and the potential for negative revisions, the broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $12.10 from $12.60.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.93 Difference: $1.17
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.63, suggesting upside of 15.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCL as Neutral (3) -

The company has sustained a very weak start to April, with on-the-go channels experiencing a -50% drop in volume. This comes on the back of weak March quarter in the wake of bushfires and higher marketing costs.

Guidance for a dividend pay-out of 80% has been removed and a decision will be made at the interim result in August. Cost savings should provide a significant buffer, in Citi's view. Neutral maintained. Target is $10.10.

Target price is $10.10 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $1.56
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CCL as Outperform (1) -

Coca-Cola Amatil has revealed substantial drops in volume across its territory as lock-downs affect non-grocery channels. Credit Suisse acknowledges the situation is fluid yet expects eating out restrictions should be lifted by the end of June.

A weak economy and closed establishments may still inhibit demand in 2021, in the broker's view, and the company will encounter higher raw materials costs.

Debt retirement can still be achieved in 2020 and no interim dividend is presumed. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $10.00 from $10.70.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $1.46
If CCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCL as Outperform (1) -

A detailed update from Coca-Cola Amatil revealed what the broker describes as not a bad outcome in A&NZ, 76% of earnings, with grocery sales remaining strong but on-the-go sales down -15% at the beginning of April due to lockdowns. Indonesia, 15% of earnings, has been more heavily impacted.

The broker lowers FY20 forecast earnings by -9% while noting the company has only low exposure to SMEs, is loaded with cash, and has no immediate refinancing obligations. Outperform retained, target falls to $10.00 from $13.30. Macquarie does not expect a dividend will be announced with the interim result release in August.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $1.46
If CCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses profitability was down significantly in January and February, ahead of the pandemic, and continued disruption is likely. The broker lowers FY20-22 estimates for earnings by -5-16%.

A -9% decline in revenue is expected in FY20, partially offset by cost reductions, producing a -12% decline in FY20 earnings (EBIT).

However, valuation appears less demanding and the broker maintains an Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $9.50 from $12.00. Cautious industry view.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.96
If CCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCL as Hold (3) -

The trading update was worse than Morgans expected, signalling the business is not as defensive as one may have thought.

The broker notes earnings uncertainty continues, with a further update expected at the AGM on May 26. FY20 and FY21 forecasts are revised down by -20% and -14% respectively.

Given the likelihood of a protracted economic recovery in some of the company's markets, financial stress affecting some customers and pressures on costs, Morgans does not expect Coca-Cola Amatil to return to its FY19 level of earnings until FY22.

Hold rating maintained. Target is reduced to $8.96 and $10.87.

Target price is $8.96 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.42
If CCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes the strong cost savings and cash preservation focus in the first quarter update. Trading at the start of the second quarter revealed a -30% fall in volumes, including -50% in Indonesia as premises were closed as a result of the pandemic.

Ord Minnett assesses emerging valuation support in the stock, although the external environment reduces the risk/reward. Hold maintained. Target is $9.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.46
If CCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CCL as Neutral (3) -

Coca-Cola Amatil has experienced a significant impact from the pandemic, with the first 2 weeks of second quarter volume down -30%, on the prior comparable period.

The company is temporarily withdrawing dividend guidance. UBS assesses the balance sheet is strong but significant risk exists to estimates.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $9.10 from $10.00.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.54 Difference: $0.56
If CCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.52, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Outperform (1) -

Capricorn Metals' reserve/resource update came in 17% higher than the broker's forecast, driving a three-year mine life extension. The broker now assumes a greater than 100kozpa run-rate at Karlawinda over ten years.

Target rises to $1.50 from $1.40 and Outperform retained, although the broker is now focused on development timing and any virus-based delays.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.21
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IFL as Neutral (3) -

Citi reduces estimates for earnings per share by -11-28% to reflect the falls in markets and revised fund flow assumptions.

While some risk still exists, the broker considers the issues on the balance sheet appear manageable for now.

Still, debt levels appear higher than desirable and the company faces major hurdles, given the need to restructure the advice business.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $7.70.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.37
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.74, suggesting upside of 30.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects depressed prices for ammonia are likely to persist throughout the US cropping season in the second half of FY20. The impact is offset by a lower Australian dollar and improved Australian fertiliser distribution outlook.

Modest demand disruption is expected in the Asia-Pacific region for the Dyno Nobel explosives business.

UBS anticipates Incitec Pivot will retain its dividends, assuming no repeat of the events in FY19 that led to an elevated debt position. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.30 from $3.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.10 Difference: $0.2
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.24, suggesting upside of 54.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JHX as Overweight (1) -

James Hardie controls around 90% of the US fibre cement market, a category which holds around 20% share of new exterior siding. Morgan Stanley considers this position is protected by barriers to entry in the form of scale, technology and innovation.

The broker likes the structural growth opportunities and competitive advantage the stock offers. There is also a track record of delivering exceptional margins.

The main area of caution is any disruption to demand from the pandemic and, under a potential scenario of -20% declines in revenue, Morgan Stanley envisages some balance sheet risk and the possibility of a capital raising.

Still demand is expected to be delayed, not destroyed. Overweight rating, Cautious industry view and $31.20 target.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $18.53 Difference: $12.67
If JHX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.83, suggesting upside of 61.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LVT as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi considers the company's move to materially reduce cash burn is prudent.

Further afield, a permanent increase in working from home could accelerate the adoption of the digital workplace solutions over the medium term.

Citi lowers FY20-22 revenue forecasts by -13-26%, assuming customers delay or cancel transformation projects because of the recession.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral/High Risk from Buy/High Risk. Target is reduced to $0.28 from $0.39.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.06
If LVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Michael Hill International posted solid sales growth in the March quarter before the lockdown shut stores. Revenue then declined by -95%, the broker reports, while online sales jumped over 100%. But this is off a low base and equates to only 4% of normal sales.

Management believes it has sufficient liquidity to trade through the crisis. Outperform and 75c target retained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.41
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 121% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.72, suggesting upside of 111.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

UBS updates estimates to account for the downgrading of North American forecasts, amid expectations for disrupted wine and carbonated soft drink can volumes in the fourth quarter.

The net impact of the broker's update is reflected in downgrades to FY20 and FY21 estimates of -18% and -12% respectively.

Following the planned divestment of the fibre business, the North American platform is expected to become a larger component of the overall earnings mix.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $2.67 from $3.05.

Target price is $2.67 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $0.16
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.93, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORI as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

The stock has dropped -25% over the past 2 months yet UBS expects explosives volumes will remain relatively resilient over the medium term.

The broker points out Orica is Australia's largest mining services company and, globally, a leading supplier of explosives to the mining sector.

FY20 and FY21 forecasts for earnings per share are reduced by -6%. UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and reduces the target to $21.38 from $23.90.

Target price is $21.38 Current Price is $16.84 Difference: $4.54
If ORI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.63, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHP as Accumulate (2) -

Sales growth was 32% in the third quarter. Management has indicated the business model is relatively immune to the impact of social distancing but as a precautionary measure has withdrawn FY20 guidance.

Ord Minnett observes operating profit appears a little soft but believes the company remains well-positioned to take advantage of the broader adoption of working from home.

Accumulate maintained. Target is reduced to $2.55 from $2.70.

Target price is $2.55 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.78
If RHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Citi adjusts estimates to account for downwardly revised copper and capital expenditure guidance. 2020 estimates for earnings per share are revised down -3%.

Rio Tinto has noted a strong recovery in March across its mines, rail and port in the Pilbara.

The smelter in Iceland continues to run at 85% of capacity. A review of this and the NZ smelter is ongoing.

Demand in China is continuing to recover but the outlook outside of China is more uncertain. Neutral and $100 target retained.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $11.33
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Underperform (5) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations and Rio Tinto's guidance, particularly developments, comes with caveats.

Credit Suisse reduces 2020 estimates for earnings per share by -3% as copper guidance is reduced. This stems from a potential reduction in second half output at Escondida and earthquake repairs at Kennecott.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is $89.

Target price is $89.00 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $0.33
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Rio Tinto has cut 2020 capex guidance to US$5-6bn from US$7bn due to both reduced discretionary spending at this time but also delays. An earthquake at Kennecott caused a major outage to copper production, the broker notes.

Otherwise guidance remains unchanged, and iron ore continues to generate strong cash flows which the broker believes will be returned to shareholders. Outperform retained, target falls to $104 from $106.

Target price is $104.00 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $15.33
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

First quarter production was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Mined copper guidance was reduced -10% but this could be offset by deferral of capital expenditure, in the broker's view.

Rio Tinto's operations continue to operate normally with minimal disruptions. Morgan Stanley notes some adjustments to product mix to cater for evolving demand.

Most notably concentrate is being boosted in the IOC mix and the proportion of primary metal is being reduced in value-added products in aluminium.

Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view is In-Line. Target is $93.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $4.33
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans observes the company's flagship Australian operations appear well placed to avoid any major impact from the pandemic.

The broker was not surprised at the cuts to 2020 guidance for copper. Moreover, the low point for bulk resources is yet to be experienced, given the potential that demand losses outside of China will overwhelm a Chinese recovery.

Given current conditions, Morgans believes resources offer a more attractive dividend profile compared with traditional yield-offering sectors. Add rating maintained. Target rises to $99.06 from $94.01.

Target price is $99.06 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $10.39
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

March quarter output was largely in line with Ord Minnett's expectations. The company has lowered capital expenditure guidance, which is expected to improve 2020 cash flow.

Copper guidance is also lower, which disappointed Ord Minnett but the impact is not considered material to the investment view. The broker retains an Accumulate rating and $102 target.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $13.33
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS assesses Rio Tinto has made a solid start to 2020. The broker notes capital expenditure guidance has been reduced by -20%, mainly because of the deferral at Oyu Tolgoi.

There is a -10% reduction in mined copper guidance and -20% for refined metal in 2020.

UBS lowers estimates for 2020 earnings by -2%. Neutral rating and $97.50 target maintained.

Target price is $97.50 Current Price is $88.67 Difference: $8.83
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $97.79, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFR as Buy (1) -

FY20 guidance has been withdrawn amid delays to an investment decision at T3 and the feasibility study at Black Butte.

In the absence of any clarity around the timing of post FY23 copper production, Citi assesses the share price is likely to move with the copper price.

This is expected to lift in the second half of 2020 as industrial activity starts to pick up and China's stimulus takes effect.

Buy/High Risk rating. Target is raised to $5.50 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.33
If SFR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Production in the March quarter comprised 17,900t of copper and 9,400 ounces of gold at C1 costs of US$0.74/lb. Guidance has been withdrawn as a precaution rather than because of any particular impact.

Credit Suisse was pleased with the cost performance, although notes there is yet to be any clarity on development projects which will be the principal drivers of future value. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $5.70 from $6.30.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.53
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Sandfire Resources' March quarter numbers were solid, with production and costs in line with the broker's forecast.

The broker is surprised the company has withdrawn guidance due to virus uncertainty (despite an ASX directive for all companies to do so), given all FY targets appear to be well in hand.

DeGrussa continues to run at full capacity. Exploration results in Botswana are also encouraging. Outperform retained, target falls to $5.00 from $5.10.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.83
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Overweight (1) -

March quarter production was broadly in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. However, the broker notes FY20 guidance has prudently been withdrawn.

If Monty maintains high production and mill availability returns to normal in the fourth quarter it could be a strong finish to the year, the broker assesses.

Overweight maintained. Target is raised to $6.15 from $6.10. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.98
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Hold (3) -

Copper production was in line with forecasts in the March quarter. While replacing DeGrussa production with the projects in the US and Africa seems valid, Ord Minnett believes the plan also carries significant development risk.

FY20 production and cost guidance has been withdrawn while the company assesses the impact from the pandemic. There was no incremental news on the T3 or Black Butte feasibility studies.

The broker retains a Hold rating and raises the target to $4.20 from $3.70.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.03
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

March quarter production was in line with expectations. The update for Monty is slightly lower grade but with improved tonnage. This suggests to UBS there is slightly more contained copper and gold but it will be more costly to extract.

Mine life at DeGrussa and Monty is now expected to continue until at least September 2022. Beyond that, progress at Black Butte or in Botswana is needed for mine life extensions. Neutral rating and $6 target maintained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $1.83
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.40, suggesting upside of 29.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUL as Buy (1) -

UBS concludes that earnings have been materially affected by the shutdown stemming from the pandemic. Consumer confidence and foot traffic appear to be down materially and there is some uncertainty over the balance sheet.

The broker reduces estimates for earnings per share by -18-41% but retains a Buy rating, with a view that the market is capitalising the weakness into the medium to longer term. Target is reduced to $7.50 from $10.10.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.52 Difference: $1.98
If SUL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.09, suggesting upside of 46.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources