Australian Broker Call
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December 21, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| SXL - | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| VOC - | VOCUS GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $20.60
Citi rates AGL as Buy (1) -
Citi analysts are positioned above consensus ahead of the February reporting season as far as AGL Energy is concerned, and they remain comfortable with that position.
The analysts anticipate AGL will announce a $500m buyback, which supports their current view and forecasts. Citi analysts remain of the view that higher wholesale prices are yet to be reflected in consensus forecasts.
Price target retained at $20.27, alongside the Buy recommendation. Origin Energy is preferred, mostly because its share price has been left languishing in recent weeks.
Target price is $20.27 Current Price is $20.60 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.65, suggesting upside of 0.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 117.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.5, implying annual growth of -35.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 128.00 cents and EPS of 166.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.9, implying annual growth of 1.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DLX DULUXGROUP LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $6.44
Citi rates DLX as Neutral (3) -
Citi notes the company has stuck with its guidance for FY19, albeit with a skew towards H2. The analysts expect DuluxGroup to be largely shielded from slowing housing markets given the company's focus on the more resilient renovation segment supplemented with "solid" organic growth initiatives.
The analysts note the company's offshore strategy is to enter markets via niche positions and then gradually expand over time. Neutral rating retained. Target retained at $7.60.
Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.44 Difference: $1.16
If DLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.14, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.9, implying annual growth of -1.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 40.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.6, implying annual growth of 4.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.54
Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -
Following the announcement of yet another contract win, this time for the Parramatta Light rail construction, representing $420m share of revenue for the company, Macquarie analysts state this builds confidence regarding the FY20 and FY21 EPS growth outlook for Downer EDI.
No changes have been made to forecasts, but, as stated, Macquarie's confidence in current numbers have grown. Price target $8.01 (unchanged). Outperform.
Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $6.54 Difference: $1.47
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.95, suggesting upside of 21.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 51.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 360.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 57.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.01
Macquarie rates GTN as Outperform (1) -
Macquarie observes the trading update was, essentially, a profit warning with both markets and company specific matters in play. Nevertheless, the share price is deemed too low, which explains the no change to the Outperform rating.
Price target has tumbled to $1.65 from $2.56 on reduced estimates. According to the analysts, the profit warning raises questions over the relative cyclicality and resilience of revenue/earnings in the mature ATN business.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.64
If GTN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.80 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.67
Credit Suisse rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
The feasibility study into the Boston Shaker underground mine has generated no surprises, suggest analysts at Credit Suisse.
Neutral rating retained, alongside an unchanged price target of $3.65.
Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 18.83 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 97.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 4.96 cents and EPS of 19.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 61.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IGO as Neutral (3) -
It appears the Boston Shaker Underground project is poised to boost head grade for Tropicana, but at a higher than previously anticipated cost. Macquarie is forecasting cash costs to rise from circa $700/oz in FY21, up to $1,000/oz in FY26.
Macquarie's forecasts already include the underground mine. Price target $3.80. Neutral.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: $0.13
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 16.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.7, implying annual growth of 97.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 61.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.27
Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -
The company has used its AGM to express undeterred confidence in the outlook for FY19, but no major turnarounds are planned, note the analysts at Citi. They anticipate the company will enjoy strong leverage to a cyclical upturn in fertilizers.
However, ammonium nitrate markets are expected to remain competitive, including by company management. On spot commodity prices, Citi analysts believe consensus FY19 forecasts look "safe".
Neutral rating retained. Price target $4.10.
Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.83
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 26.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 102.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.9, implying annual growth of 2.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.35
Morgan Stanley rates MYO as Underweight (5) -
Following due diligence and debt funding commitments, suitor KKR has revised the offer price down to $3.40 per share versus $3.77 previously. Morgan Stanley reminds investors the company listed at $3.65 in 2015.
Underweight rating retained. Price target is $2.80. Industry View is Attractive.
Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.35 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If MYO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting downside of -4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 11.30 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.3, implying annual growth of 51.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 5.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.71
Credit Suisse rates NST as Underperform (5) -
The company remains poised to increase resource and reserves, which should lead to extended mine life but the analysts surmise this already seems to be priced in at the current share price level.
Already, Credit Suisse believes its current valuation is well and truly "generous". Underperform rating retained, as well as the $6.10 price target.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $9.71 Difference: minus $3.61 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.96, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 49.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.3, implying annual growth of 56.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.95 cents and EPS of 64.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.1, implying annual growth of 32.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.04
Credit Suisse rates ORE as Outperform (1) -
The analysts believe Orocobre's trading update revealed soft sales and equally soft realised pricing. Production volumes missed their expectation by some -5%.
The analysts note management blames, among other factors, soft market conditions in China. Forecasts have been reduced. Outperform rating retained. Price target unchanged at $5.30.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $2.26
If ORE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 77.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 1839.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates ORE as Equal-weight (3) -
The company's update revealed production and sales are below what Morgan Stanley analysts have been expecting. The analysts do point out prices achieved are better than expected.
The analysts are now assuming a slower recovery in production. Equal-weight rating retained. Price target remains at $4.20.
Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $1.16
If ORE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 77.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 1839.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.68 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.43
Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -
Though Citi analysts are of the view that competitor AGL Energy has the stronger catalysts to move the share price higher, the sector preference rests with Origin Energy, mostly because of a relatively cheaper valuation.
In a generalised sense, Citi analysts state they are comfortable with the potential for further governmental intervention risks. Price target retained at $8.23. Buy.
Target price is $8.23 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: $1.8
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.76, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of 300.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.9, implying annual growth of 11.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.05
UBS rates OSH as Neutral (3) -
Following the company's update on its Alaskan asset, UBS analysts seem to have made small changes to forecasts (negative). Price target remains at $9.45 and the rating is Neutral (unchanged).
Target price is $9.45 Current Price is $7.05 Difference: $2.4
If OSH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 25.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.73 cents and EPS of 32.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.42 cents and EPS of 44.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.5, implying annual growth of 40.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SDG SUNLAND GROUP LIMITED
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $1.38
Morgans rates SDG as Hold (3) -
The AGM update has triggered some minor downward adjustments to forecasts, with the broker noting Sunland Group has a track record in managing cycles successfully, as well as its balance sheet to accommodate for acquisitions.
Morgans sees earnings upside potential in the medium/long term with profits from several multi-storey projects in the pipeline, while the quality of the portfolio and product offering should continue to underpin future sales.
Hold rating retained. Price target falls to $1.53 from $1.85 on reduced estimates.
Target price is $1.53 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.15
If SDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.98
UBS rates SXL as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Southern Cross is battling a weak market environment for its radio operations, which is fully acknowledged by analysts at UBS, but they also believe the share price is simply too low.
Hence an upgrade to Buy from Neutral. Price target drops to $1.20 from $1.25 with the analysts highlighting the company is performing better than its competitors.
Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.98 Difference: $0.22
If SXL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting upside of 16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.4, implying annual growth of 5373.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of 4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $6.65
Macquarie rates SYD as Underperform (5) -
It is Macquarie's view the November traffic data update provides yet more evidence the outlook for Sydney Airport is increasingly looking "challenging". Domestically, airlines remain disciplined against a background of moderate growth, suggest the analysts.
Internationally, however, the challenge seems material with capacity growth forecast to decline to less than 1% during FY19. Price target drops to $6.67 from $6.74 on reduced estimates. Underperform rating retained.
Target price is $6.67 Current Price is $6.65 Difference: $0.02
If SYD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.43, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.50 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 14.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.50
Credit Suisse rates SYR as Outperform (1) -
Having announced yet another offtake agreement with a China based customer, Credit Suisse points out the new contract represents about 20% of projected volume by mid-2019.
Overall, the analysts believe some 70% of next year's production has now been accounted for. No changes made. Target $5.50. Outperform.
Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $1.50 Difference: $4
If SYR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 267% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.42, suggesting upside of 128.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.26 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.18
UBS rates VOC as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
UBS has downgraded to Sell from Neutral, believing the recent share price rally is, simply put, unjustifiable. As a matter of fact, while taking into account re-investment and consumer/Commander challenges likely to weigh near-term, the analysts dare to say Vocus shares look expensive.
Price target has improved to $3 from $2.60 with UBS analysts warning the market is pricing in a strong earnings rebound from FY20 onwards, but not accounting for execution risk, which remains real.
Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If VOC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 64.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
| Company | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
| GTN | GTN LTD | Macquarie | 1.65 | 2.55 | -35.29% |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Macquarie | 3.80 | 3.90 | -2.56% |
| SDG | SUNLAND GROUP | Morgans | 1.53 | 1.85 | -17.30% |
| SXL | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | UBS | 1.20 | 1.25 | -4.00% |
| SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Macquarie | 6.67 | 6.74 | -1.04% |
| VOC | VOCUS GROUP | UBS | 3.00 | 2.60 | 15.38% |
Summaries
| AGL | AGL ENERGY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $20.60 |
| DLX | DULUXGROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $6.44 |
| DOW | DOWNER EDI | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.54 |
| GTN | GTN LTD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.01 |
| IGO | INDEPENDENCE GROUP | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.67 |
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.67 | ||
| IPL | INCITEC PIVOT | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.27 |
| MYO | MYOB | Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.35 |
| NST | NORTHERN STAR | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $9.71 |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.04 |
| Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.04 | ||
| ORG | ORIGIN ENERGY | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $6.43 |
| OSH | OIL SEARCH | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $7.05 |
| SDG | SUNLAND GROUP | Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $1.38 |
| SXL | SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.98 |
| SYD | SYDNEY AIRPORT | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $6.65 |
| SYR | SYRAH RESOURCES | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.50 |
| VOC | VOCUS GROUP | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.18 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 7 |
| 3. Hold | 7 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Friday 04 January 2019
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