Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates ALX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees no near-term DPS impact from Atlas Arteria’s Dulles Greenway toll application, which represents 8% of the valuation.

The broker's assumptions imply a 10% primary toll increase, using a 60-40 peak/off-peak traffic mix. The company estimates around -2.5% traffic impact, but the broker expects a lower impact.

A 10% toll increase from mid-2026 would lift the broker's DCF by 5c and bring forward debt lock-up release by two years to around 2033. The key uncertainty remains the 2026 French corporate tax surcharge and potential changes to the long-distance transport infrastructure tax.

Equal-weight retained with unchanged target of $5.09. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.09 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $0.22
If ALX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.30, suggesting upside of 9.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ARR as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of American Rare Earths with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 65c.

The company is seen as well-positioned to benefit from the US push to diversify rare earth supply, with Cowboy State Mine offering a long-term domestic source of heavy rare earths (DyTb) to reduce reliance on China. 

The mine is within the Halleck Creek project in Wyoming, and is one of the largest and most advanced US rare earth projects. It has over 100 years of theoretical mine life and potential to supply over 30% of US DyTb demand, supported by up to US$456m EXIM funding LOIs (letter of intent).

The broker's base case assumes 3Mtpa throughput from 2031 over a 20-year mine life, delivering an unrisked NPV at -10% discount of $302m, with upside to $876m at 6Mtpa.

Key catalysts are pilot plant development, PFS completion and mining permit applications expected by 2H2026.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.315
If ARR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 94% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Comet Ridge will buy Santos’ ((STO)) 42.86% stake in the Mahalo CSG JV to lift ownership to 100%, Bell Potter notes. It is paying $40m at close plus $20m on production milestones, with completion by FID or 30 Jun 2026.

The deal adds 250PJ of 2P reserves and 2C resources to around 677PJ , and Comet will run FEED in early 2026 while progressing funding for both the acquisition and development capex.

The broker reckons the full ownership simplifies the acreage and funding options, with Mahalo fully permitted, targeting up to 60TJ/day and mid-2026 FID. The company is in discussions with NAIF for debt, and the broker believes it could attract potential partners and gas prepayments.

Speculative Buy and 21c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.085
If COI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CWP as Buy (1) -

Cedar Woods Properties upgraded FY26 guidance again to at least 20% net profit growth from 15% previously guided, driven by strengthening national conditions and rapid price gains.

Bell Potter notes better 1H settlement timing/visibility and the first meaningful recovery signs in Victoria boosted confidence.

A larger pipeline and more FY27 settlement projects should support improved medium-term revenues/margins, the broker highlights. FY26-28 EPS forecasts upgraded by 3-5%.

Buy retained. Target rises to $10.00 from $9.70.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $1.2
If CWP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DLI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has transferred coverage of Delta Lithium to James Williamson, following Brad Watson's departure earlier in the year.

The company is advancing two 100%-owned WA lithium projects as fundamentals improve. At Mt Ida, it will leverage Ballard Mining's (BM1) drilling via additional lithium assays and at Yinnetharra, it expects RC drill results in 1Q2026, with early-stage economic studies planned through 2026.

The company retains a 41% stake in Ballard worth $95m plus $57m cash and no debt, yet its enterprise value implies the market is valuing the lithium resource base at zero, the broker highlights.

Speculative Buy. Target trimmed to 35c from 75c.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.145
If DLI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

DroneShield won a $49.6m contract from a European military customer (via a reseller) for handheld counter-drone systems, with deliveries and full cash receipt expected in 1Q26,

Bell Potter notes it’s the second-largest deal in company history and the reseller has now placed 15 contracts totaling over $86.5m. The broker estimates 24% of FY26 hardware revenue (ex-subscription) is now secured by announced contracts, supported by DroneShield’s faster delivery cadence vs traditional defence primes.

FY25 EPS forecast trimmed by -1% and FY26 by -2% on higher headcount. Buy retained and target cut to $4.40 from $5.30 on a higher WACC (12%, up from 11%) due to heightened geopolitical risks.

The broker reckons a Ukraine peace deal could pressure sentiment in the near term, but is unlikely to change forecasts.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $2.47 Difference: $1.93
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DXS as Neutral (3) -

Dexus's December 2025 valuation update showed portfolio values rose 0.7% or $83m, driven by a 0.4% lift in office and 1.4% growth in industrial, even as the overall cap rate remained stable at 6.04%.

Office cap rates edged to 6.21% vs 6.18% in June, while industrial remained around 5.56%, Citi notes. The office portfolio continues to outperform on occupancy and incentives, and industrial leasing momentum remains strong.

Dexus declared a 1H26 estimated dividend of 19.3cps. Neutral, with unchanged target of $7.80.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.07 Difference: $0.73
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.07, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes EBR Systems' first patient enrolled and implanted in the TLC-AU feasibility study is the first step toward expanding the WiSE System addressable market beyond the current US$3.6bn.

The study tests totally leadless CRT by co-implanting WiSE with a leadless pacemaker in de novo and upgrade patients, assessing safety/efficacy and 6-month clinical response vs baseline.

The company targets a potential 2028 launch. The broker estimates FDA clearance of WiSE CRT for the TLC market could lift the total addressable market, and expects the company to provide an update in 2026 

The broker believes the recent share price pullback undervalues EBR’s intrinsic value. Buy maintained with unchanged target of $2.43.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $1.56
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 179% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Buy (1) -

Elsight won a US$21.2m Halo order from an existing European defence OEM (original equipment manufacturer), to be delivered Jan–Apr 2026, Bell Potter notes.

The order implies a 13.5x y/y Jan-Apr revenue uplift and includes upfront working-capital payments with the balance due before delivery, the broker highlights.

US DIU’s Phase 3 (fielding) selection in November for Halo under Project G.I. further validates capability and could help broaden the customer base, a key de-risking step in the broker's view.

FY25 EPS forecast cut by -1% but FY26 upgraded by 21% and FY27 by 36%..

Buy. Target rises to $3.60 from $2.00.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.92 Difference: $0.68
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FRW as Accumulate (2) -

Freightways Group has announced the acquisition of VT Freight Express, an established and also fast growing freight company in Victoria, for $71m, Ord Minnett explains, with a specialisation in B2B customer segments.

The analyst views the acquisition as aligning with the Allied Express business and the company's strategy to expand its express freight franchise in Australia, both acquisitively and organically.

Ord Minnett forecasts a return on equity above 15% by FY27.

Target price $12.84. Accumulate rating.

Target price is $12.84

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes GrainCorp flagged softer receivals trend and a below-book exit from GrainsConnect Canada. The company is selling GrainsConnect (JV with Zen-Noh) to Parrish & Heimbecker for CA$150m enterprise value, expecting an -$5-10m loss on sale.

Year-to-date receivals are down -2.0mt y/y and FY26 receivals are guided to 11-12mt vs 13.3mt in FY25 and 13.1mt consensus. The broker notes weaker grain basis/canola crush margins suggest tighter handler margins.

FY26 net profit forecast trimmed by -20% and FY27 by -4%. Target cut to $7.60 from $8.50 on a lower multiple reflecting softer sector trading multiples.

Hold maintained.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $0.51
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie views the sale of the GrainsConnect Canada JV for -CA$150m as a positive move for GrainCorp, removing uncertainty around loss-making assets. The company flags a net loss of -$5m to -$10m post debt repayment following the sale.

A crop update shows weather impacts across parts of southern NSW and Victoria, while the harvest is almost complete in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Low commodity prices are reducing grain marketed volumes alongside near-record global grain production.

The analyst notes both factors are pressuring grain handlers. GrainCorp expects FY26 receivals to be lower than FY25, with Macquarie forecasting FY26 receivals of 11.9mt at the upper end of guidance.

EPS forecasts are cut by -11% for FY26 and -9% for FY27 to FY30. An FY26 guidance update is expected at the 18 February AGM. Outperform rating maintained. Target trimmed to $8.30 from $8.80.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $1.21
If GNC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Buy (1) -

GrainCorp announced the sale of its GrainsConnect Canada business for around -CA$150m, post losses of -$52m over the last three years, Ord Minnett described, as well as a final loss of -$5 to -$10m.

The sale is viewed positively, whereas management's reduction in receivals guidance for FY26 by -13.5% was not. Total receivals for FY26 flagged between 11MT-12MT, with pressure on margins also highlighted.

The analyst lowers FY26 earnings (EBITDA) by -8% to $301m and questions how achievable the trailing 12-month earnings (EBITDA) of $320m target is, and, as such, earnings downgrades may be forthcoming.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $9.35 from $9.80.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $7.09 Difference: $2.26
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 18.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUM as Buy (1) -

Humm Group has received a non-binding proposal from Credit Corp ((CCP)) to acquire 100% of the group, with the offer valuing the business at either 72c or 77c per share, Ord Minnett explains, which is at least "in the ball park".

This compares to Humm Chairman Andrew Abercrombie's buyout at 58c per share in June this year.

The offer is subject to due diligence, which has not started. There is potentially a lot more to play out, the analyst states.

No change to Buy rating. Target price rises to 87c from 81c, while the broker lowers net operating income forecasts by -2% to -7% over FY26-FY28.

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.14
If HUM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie points to recent media reports of Chubb US making an informal approach for AIG US, although both parties have denied the reports so far.

Chubb holds an estimated 5.8% share of the Australian commercial lines market, while AIG is estimated at around 3.8%.

A transaction of this scale could place a floor under the Australian commercial premium rate cycle and remains worth monitoring, the analyst states.

Insurance Australia Group carries a Neutral rating with a $9.10 target price.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $7.86 Difference: $1.24
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.83, suggesting upside of 12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IMM as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage of Immutep, the biotech with a novel immunotherapy, eftilagimod alfa (Efti), or IMP321, with a Buy rating and a $1.50 target price.

The therapy is noted for directly activating the immune system to attack various cancers. Management's strategy is to expand the adoption of their drugs by engaging market leaders, with partnerships with Merck and Novartis.

A recent deal with Dr. Reddy's gives the Indian drug company exclusive rights to develop and commercialise Efti for all countries outside North America, Europe, Japan and Greater China.

The broker highlights Immutep will receive an upfront payment of US$20m and regulatory and commercial milestone payments of up to US$350m, and double-digit royalties on commercial sales.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $1.11
If IMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 285% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates KAR as Neutral (3) -

Following a meeting with Karoon Energy’s new MD and CEO, Carrie Lockhart, Macquarie highlights a shift toward improved technology and higher operational efficiency across production assets, notably in Brazil. The focus is on shareholder value.

The analyst lowers the 2026 production forecast to 8.2MMboe, a -20% year-on-year decline versus 2025, driven by Bauna life extension work and well performance issues.

Macquarie cuts EPS estimates by -1.1% for 2025 on reduced Who Dat production and by -18% for 2026 on lower Bauna output.

The target price slips by -2.9% to $1.65 on production delays. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.1
If KAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 22.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MEI as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie visited Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira clay rare earths project in Brazil following commissioning of the pilot plant. It is designed with a nameplate capacity of around 2kg per day of MREC (mixed rare earth carbonate) and ore throughput of 25kg per hour.

Ongoing ramp-up is expected to allow Meteoric to commence off-take discussions with downstream customers. The project’s preliminary licence is due for review by the State Council for Environmental Policy on 19 December.

No change to the Outperform rating or 39c target price. No change to the broker’s EPS estimates.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.24
If MEI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.33, suggesting upside of 135.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Sandfire Resources’ Black Butte preliminary feasibility study points to a nine-year mine life at around 29ktpa versus consensus of 22ktpa Cu production, sitting 4% above market expectations, Macquarie notes.

All-in sustaining costs is estimated at US$2.83/lb, and initial growth capex of US$474m sits above the consensus of US$404m.

The analyst notes the feasibility study could take 12-18 months to deliver and updates Black Butte production forecasts to align with the preliminary study. Initial construction is assumed in 2Q29 and first production in 2QFY31.

No change to the Neutral rating. Target price is cut by -1% to $16.90. No change to the broker’s earnings forecasts.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $0.08
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.10, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SFR as Underweight (5) -

Sandfire Resources' updated PFS for Black Butte copper project in Montana reduces execution risk, but mine life is unchanged, Morgan Stanley notes. IRR (internal rate of return) falls to 11% from 13% due to higher capex and despite stronger copper price and production.

The PFS covers only the Johnny Lee deposit, with potential upside if the Lowry deposit, with 5% increase in contained copper, is added. Management is now assessing strategic fit within the global portfolio.

Underweight retained and unchanged target of $11.45, with the broker believing the market is overly optimistic on mine-life extensions that may not materialise. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $11.45 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: minus $5.37 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.10, suggesting downside of -11.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGQ as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie visited St. George Mining’s Araxá project in Brazil, which could emerge as a key niobium producer.

Multiple drill results highlight thick niobium and rare earth intercepts from surface as part of St. George’s current 10,000-metre drilling program.

The analyst highlights niobium recovery processes are already well established in the region, with the explorer attracting an experienced team across rare earths processing and niobium refining.

No change to the Outperform rating, 20c target price, or the broker’s EPS forecasts.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.11
If SGQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 122% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SLD as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Saluda Medical with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of $2.80.

The company is a commercial-stage medtech selling spinal cord stimulation (SCS) therapy, with its closed-loop Evoke system differentiated by deeper, more durable pain relief and strong clinical/clinician support.

It addresses a key weakness of conventional SCS, lack of efficacy. The broker reckons the key upside is accelerating US share in a US$2.2bn market dominated by four incumbents. US revenue has already exceeded US$50m in less than 3 years but is still only 2% share.

The recent IPO proceeds are aimed at scaling the US commercial footprint, deepening penetration in existing accounts and launching paddle leads in FY27. Revenue is forecast to grow to US$290m by FY29 from around US$82m in FY26.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $1.31
If SLD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following share price weakness, Telix Pharmaceuticals issued a release clarifying all 30 safety run-in patients are recruited for its phase 3 ProstACT Global trial for TLX591 (prostate cancer), Citi notes. The database isn’t locked so data collection is ongoing.

The broker assumes the ongoing data relate to the TLX591 plus chemo cohort (n=10) given likely toxicity. Citi reminds $7 of its $34/share valuation is ascribed to TLX591 on differentiated dosing and potential efficacy, and is adjusted for 50% of US$1.1bn peak sales risk.

While success isn’t priced in and ex-therapeutics value is seen at $24/sh, the broker highlights TLX591 is a key bellwether. Buy, High Risk and $34 target maintained, though the broker is clear it expects limited outperformance until part 1 data are released.

The upside catalyst watch expires today..

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $22.27
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 190% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 130.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

After a full review of Treasury Wine Estates' update and outlook, Citi cut FY26-FY28 EPS forecasts by -37% to -29%. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

Target trimmed to $4.80 from $5.11, with earnings cuts partly offset by a reduced P/E relative discount and lower SOTP discounts for Americas and Collective due to reduced FY26 earnings risk.

Early comments follow:

In a flash update Citi stresses the Sell rated Treasury Wine Estates has announced another noticeably weaker-than-expected trading update, with both China and the US markets deteriorating further. This is on top of a soft outlook and ongoing high inventory levels on the balance sheet.

Management has downgraded 1H26 earnings (EBIT) guidance by -31% at the consensus level to $235m, with the second half guidance suggesting it will be higher than the first half. The analyst, however, emphasises it is vague and there are material downside risks to 2H26 consensus forecasts.

Penfolds is trading down -12% below consensus, Treasury Americas guidance -55% below consensus and Treasury Collective -44% below consensus. 

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates’ 1H26 EBIT guidance update comes in around -30% below Macquarie’s forecast, with the midpoint implying an approximate -40% year-on-year decline. The brief update following the October AGM suggests limited transparency from the group.

Balance sheet leverage rises to 2.5x from 1.9x in FY25, exceeding management’s target range of 1.5–2.0x. This outcome leads the analyst to lower the forecast dividend payout ratio, alongside management reviewing asset sales and capex.

Macquarie cuts EPS forecasts by -30% for FY26 and reduces the target price by -22% to $5. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.02
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Equal-weight (3) -

Treasury Wine Estates' update signals a reset to near-term expectations amid weak US and China conditions, Morgan Stanley observes. It shifts focus from shipment-led growth to brand protection, inventory reduction and channel health.

An extended 2-year inventory correction delays recovery and is seen hurting short to medium-term earnings growth potential. Delivery of the $100m annual Ascent cost-out program is key to future upside, in the broker's view.

Leverage is set to remain elevated, around 2.5x 1H26, with balance sheet flexibility reliant on dividend cuts, potential asset sales and capex review, though liquidity and covenant headroom remain sound, the broker highlights.

FY26 EBITS forecast cut by -29% and FY27 by -36%, with no dividend now forecast for both FY26 and FY27. 

Equal-weight. Target trimmed to $5.10 from $6.45. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.12
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Treasury Wine Estates to Lighten from Hold due to the lack of transparency around the earnings outlook.

Target price is also reduced to $5 from $6.50 on the back of management's 1H26 earnings downgrade to some -30% below consensus expectations. This is due to an ongoing weakness in North America and sluggish China demand, as well as Penfolds coming in well below guidance.

The broker emphasises the rebasing of earnings was also expected by the new CEO, but the scale is a surprise. America has been guided down -60% y/y for 1H26, with ongoing distribution issues in California.

Balance sheet concerns have also arisen, with 1H26 gearing at around 2.5x above the target range of 1.5x-2.0x for at least two years.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS estimates by -36.3% for FY26 and -30.7% for FY27.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.98 Difference: $0.02
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates WRK as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Wrkr with a Speculative Buy rating and target price of 16c.

The company is a regulatory technology platform for Australian employers across superannuation compliance, delivering 52% compounded annual revenue growth rate since FY21. Growth has been assisted by MUFG partnership and wins at AustralianSuper and Rest.

The company is targeting $50m ARR per operating segment and currently has a $7.5m ARR pipeline dominated by MUFG milestone revenue. This is expected to pivot from FY26 to recurring ARR as super fund users are monetised.

The broker sees strong upside from ARR activation and scaling, with potential of around $40m. This is expected to be supported by catalysts including payday super, MUFG fund rollouts, government infrastructure completion and higher-ARPU products/M&A.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.04
If WRK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ZEO as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage of Zeotech with a Speculative Buy rating and a 15c target price. The company is an emerging Australian industrial minerals company in a prominent position within the industry transition to sustainable construction materials and decarbonisation.

The flagship asset is the Toondoon Kaolin project in Qld, which is aiming to become a major supplier of high-reactivity metakaolin to the construction industry.

The analyst emphasises the high purity of the resource, as well as the proximity to Bundaberg's deep-water port.

Zeotech has secured a binding $200m offtake agreement for its white and pink kaolin (china clay) with MSI (Jiangsu Mineral Sources International Trading Co). It is due to start in 1H2026 and could generate around $12m in earnings (EBITDA) per annum run-rate.

Target price is $0.15 Current Price is $0.08 Difference: $0.07
If ZEO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 87% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources