Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 4DX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has initiated coverage on 4DMedical, a global medical technology company currently focused on the commersialisation of its flagship respiratory imaging platform, XV Technology, which offers a step-change in diagnostic capabilities.

The broker considers 4DMedical well positioned to disrupt the global respiratory diagnostics market, which has an estimated worth of US$31bn. 

Ord Minnett expects 2024 to be an inflection point for the company, noting the company should be able to use recent wins to drive rapid growth in the US, while maintaining momentum in Australia should see the company move towards 150 installed sites domestically.

The broker initiates with a Speculative Buy rating and a target price of $1.20.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.615
If 4DX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates 5GG as Buy (1) -

Pentanet's December-quarter revenue and gross profit nosed out Shaw and Partners's expectations, the company posting an improved Telco on-net run rate trend and solid cloud gaming growth.

The company maintained earnings (EBITDA) breakeven and logged a 218% jump in net cash during the quarter.

The broker stays its hand, awaiting the full December-half results.

Buy rating and 20c targeting price retained.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.144
If 5GG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 257% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A11 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed its earnings forecasts and target prices across its lithium and rare earth coverage universe to account for dilution from recent capital raises.

Atlantic Lithium's target is unchanged at 56c, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.183
If A11 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter reviews a2 Milk Co's December half and observes exports to China were subdued; inventory accumulated modestly; and the NZ dollar struggled.

On the upside, the cost of goods sold continued to fall (although the broker observes a recent increase in dairy futures) and births in China outpaced the broker's forecasts.

Hold rating retained. Target price rises to $5.15 from $4.85.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.83 Difference: $0.32
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.39, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ABG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners resumes coverage of Abacus Group with a Buy rating and $1.20 target price, which translates to a total shareholder return of 18%.

The broker appreciates the company's 7.8% dividend yield, especially given interest rates are showing signs of plateauing.

The broker also observes a fall in bond yields in November suggests an end to cap-rate tightening, which would increase the gross valuation of the company's investment properties, boosting borrowing capacity, potentially freeing the company for organic growth.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.11
If ABG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.44, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGY as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed its earnings forecasts and target prices across its lithium and rare earth coverage universe to account for dilution from recent capital raises.

Argosy Minerals' target falls to 11c from 14c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.01
If AGY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALX as Hold (3) -

As per Ord Minnett, Atlas Arteria finished 2023 relatively strongly as recovery continues. Toll revenue in the December quarter was up 6%, while on a full year basis proportionate toll revenue increased 7%.

The broker explains revenue and traffic for Atlas Arteria's part owned APRR increased 12% and 3% above pre-covid levels respectively in 2023, suggesting full recovery from the pandemic, as car traffic volumes benefit from low unemployment, increased holiday traffic and motorway upgrades.

The Hold rating and target price of $5.85 are retained.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.43
If ALX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.11, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals' Dec Q performance was mixed, Macquarie notes, featuring stronger than expected production from Dargues offset by softer production from Peak. FY24 copper production guidance has been downgraded due to a change in the stope sequence at Peak.

Gold production is expected to be in the upper half of guidance ranges and lead/zinc production to be in the lower half of guidances ranges.

The balance sheet is in good shape, the broker declares, placing Aurelia in a good position to push ahead with the key Federation growth project.

Outperform and 22c target retained.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.105
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AND as Add (1) -

Morgans believes Ansarada Group is well placed for an eventual recovery after reviewing better-than-expected 2Q results.

While there hasn't been a material upswing in paying customers, due to ongoing weak capital market activity, the back book (freemium or currently nonpaying customers) continues to grow at a rapid pace. Management also noted a strong January.

The analyst highlights free cash flow (FCF) generation far exceeded Morgans forecast. Consequently, Ansarada had circa $25m in net cash at bank at quarter's end.

Ansarada is Morgans key small cap technology pick. The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $2.00 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.79 Difference: $0.21
If AND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ART as Add (1) -

Airtasker's 2Q trading update was broadly positive, in Morgans estimation. The business achieved positive free cash flow (FCF) and revenue increased by 8% over the period. The latter was assisted by the marketplace improving its take rate to 20%, up 60bps on Q1.

By quarter's end, there was $17.2m held in cash/term deposits with no debt, which the broker suggests is sufficient for positive free cash flow (FCF) for FY24.

After the analyst makes upward revisions to FY25-26 revenue estimates on an improved take-rate, the target rises to 54c from 53c. Add.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.27
If ART meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ASK as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on self storage REIT Abacus Storage King with a Buy rating and $1.25 target price.

The broker observes the company is the No.2 supplier of self storage facilities in Australia and New Zealand and offers a 5.3% yield, $3.1bn in assets and forecast total shareholder return of 15% (medium risk).

The self-storage market is seen maturing and remains supported by rising housing density and population growth.

Add M&A opportunities as the industry consolidates and the broker spies plenty of opportunity (the company plans to expand net lettable area by roughly 25% by FY26).

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.115
If ASK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AZY as Buy (1) -

Antipa Minerals's December-quarter result focused on exploration into the Paterson region in Western Australia.

The company finished the quarter with $6.2m in cash and no debt, and Shaw and Partners considers its to be well funded for its exploration program.

Buy rating and 6c target price retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.045
If AZY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BC8 as Buy (1) -

Black Cat Syndicate's December-quarter result appears to have met Shaw and Partners' forecasts, the company reporting a 24% rise in the Resource and updating Paulsen's restart plan.

Final approval of the $60m funding deal for the restart is expected to be finalised in February with funds to land in March.

The company closed the quarter with $8m cash.

Buy rating and 74c target price retained.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.49
If BC8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 196% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Buy (1) -

Burgundy Diamond Mines' December-quarter diamond production fell shy of Bell Potter's forecasts, but the broker observes full-year production was in line with prospectus forecasts and well above FY22's performance.

Revenue marginally outpaced but the average realised price disappointed as the company sold down rough diamond inventories. Earnings (EBITDA) sharply disappointed.

The company closed the quarter with net debt of US$35m, down from US$89m in the September quarter.

Burgundy Diamond Mines now reports to a calendar year and in USD. 

EPS forecasts fall -15% for 2024 and -1% for 2025.

Buy rating retained, the broker spying strong potential as ESG imprimaturs mount. Target price falls to 45c from 50c.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.27
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley updates forecasts for Beach Energy following the 2Q activities report on January 25.

The broker highlights production fell by -5% on the prior quarter due to outages at Kupe and Lang Lang, while sales revenue jumped by 37% on Waitsia's first LNG cargo.

Management narrowed FY24 production guidance and raised the bottom end of the guidance range for capex.

The target rises to $1.65 from $1.63 and the Equal-weight rating is unchanged. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Hold (3) -

Bubs Australia's December-quarter result met Bell Potter's forecasts, the company posting a big jump in year-on-year gross sales, thanks to a five-fold increase in US sales and modest gains in China.

 December-quarter cash outflow nearly doubled due to -$2.8m in USFDA costs - the only major change to the broker's forecasts.

The broker expects the company to move to earnings (EBITDA) profitability in outer years.

The company closed the quarter with net cash of $27.2m and $9.8m of undrawn facilities.

Hold rating and 14c target price retained.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.025
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Corp's first half loss of -$12.1m reflects the previously announced -$45.6m US purchased debt ledger (PDL) impairment, Macquarie notes. Underlying profit was up 5% year on year.

Despite the impairment, management noted continued US operational improvement, stating that "elevated delinquency first observed in late FY23 has stabilised".

Meanwhile, the broker notes Credit Corp is taking share in the A&NZ PDL market with purchasing guidance upgraded to $100-110m from around $50m prior

Macquarie's previous valuation incorporated the US PDL segment at 0.25x of book valuation. Based on current performance and the collections outlook that has been increased to 1.0x, leading to a target increase to $16.89 from $11.80. Neutral retained.

Target price is $16.89 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CCP as Add (1) -

Due to higher lending provisioning and high cost growth, according to Morgans, Credit Corp's 1H underlying profit was a miss of more than -15% against the consensus forecast.

Despite profit also missing the broker's estimate by circa -20%, Morgans FY25/26 earnings outlook remains largely unchanged. The Add rating is maintained though trust is required in management's execution in the US, caution the analysts.

The broker feels the midpoint of unchanged FY24 guidance is achievable depending largely upon 2H volumes in the Lending segment. 

The target rises to $20.60 from $18.75.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: $3.39
If CCP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CCP as Hold (3) -

Credit Corp's interim result beat Ord Minnett's forecasts, but the broker warns this company is not yet out of the woods. Fair value estimate has lifted to $15.80 (up from $15) but as the shares continue to look "expensive", the rating remains Hold.

With the weight of growth shifting to the US, where competition is fierce, the broker predicts future returns on equity are likely to remain constrained.

Ord Minnett forecasts lower profit growth in the five years ahead compared with the five years past. The operating margin is expected to trend closer to 17% than the historical norm of 27%.

The market is seen as too optimistic, which also translates into an "expensive" share price.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $17.21 Difference: minus $1.41 (current price is over target).
If CCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.76, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CCX as Buy (1) -

City Chic Collective's December-half trading update met Bell Potter's forecasts, the company posting a -29% slump in sales.

The company logged a 10% rise in gross trading margins in the quarter and management reiterated its expectations of a return to profitability in the June half and the broker expects gross margins should rise to the target 60% mark during the quarter.

Inventory and net cash outpaced.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 64c from 55c

Target price is $0.64 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.085
If CCX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.51, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CIA as Buy (1) -

Despite ongoing issues, Champion Iron beat Citi's expectations with its third quarter results. Earnings of CA$246.6m were 15% ahead of Citi, revenue was 6% ahead, and C1 cash costs fell marginally to CA$73 per dry metric tonne.

Production was strong at 4.0m tonnes of concentrate, while sales were lower at 3.2m tonnes with the rail operator not hauling at contracted levels.

As of late January, the board has approved the DR pellet feed project. Commissioning is expected in the second half of 2025, with a total project capital expenditure of -CA$470.7m. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.60 from $9.20.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $1.07
If CIA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CIA as Outperform (1) -

Champion Iron's production was a record for a quarter and above Macquarie's forecasts, however logistical headwinds saw sales come in lower than forecast. Production has exceeded shipments in the last three quarters, with the inventory build now growing to 2.4mt.

Cash rose 22% on better than expected realised pricing and lower cash costs which boosted earnings to 14% above the broker's forecasts and 59% higher quarter on quarter.

The DRPF project achieved final investment decision and the Kami study highlighted high-grade growth, although capex is higher
than Macquarie had forecast.

Outperform and $9.20 target retained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $8.53 Difference: $0.67
If CIA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DRR as Neutral (3) -

Deterra Royalties has reported MAC royalty receipts in the Dec Q -5% below Macquarie's forecasts, on lower sales volumes at MAC. For the half year, total royalty receipts were flat half on half but 23% higher year on year.

This drives a material increase in dividend, with the broker's forecasts for the interim dividend translating to an annualised dividend yield of some 6%.

Buoyant iron ore prices and the ramp-up of South Flank are considered key tailwinds. Neutral and $4.80 target retained.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $5.54 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.91, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EM2 as Buy (1) -

Eagle Mountain Mining's December-quarter result appears to have met Shaw and Partners expectations.

The Mineral Resource Estimates for Oracle Ridge was upgraded during the quarter.

Buy rating and 30c target price retained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.238
If EM2 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 384% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates EV1 as Buy (1) -

Evolution Energy Minerals' December-quarter results appear to have met Shaw and Partners's forecasts.

Highlights included the completion of due diligence, enabling BTR New Material Group to take a 9.9% stake in the company at 14c per share - a substantial reduction on initial terms of 22c a share, resulting in a total investment of $3.62m (down from $4.9m).

Evolution Energy Minerals closed the quarter with $6.2m in cash.

The broker expects the graphite market should receive a boost from manufacturers seeking compliance with the US Inflation Reduction Act by sourcing graphite from non-China markets.

Buy rating and 40c target price retained.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.275
If EV1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GL1 as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed its earnings forecasts and target prices across its lithium and rare earth coverage universe to account for dilution from recent capital raises.

Global Lithium Resources' target falls to 70c from $1.30, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.195
If GL1 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GL1 as Buy (1) -

Global Lithium Resources's December-quarter performance met Shaw and Partners's forecasts. The broker observes strong progress at Manna over the quarter and expects positive news.

While lithium prices fell in the quarter, the broker considers the lithium market to be broadly balanced in 2024, expecting cuts in production from Greenbushes announced this week to balance supply.

The company closed the quarter with $36m in cash and no debt, and is well-positioned to wait out supply challenges, posits the broker.

Buy recommendation and $3.20 target price retained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $2.695
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 534% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GLN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reviewed its earnings forecasts and target prices across its lithium and rare earth coverage universe to account for dilution from recent capital raises.

Galan Lithium's target falls to 95c from $1.20, Outperform retained.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.515
If GLN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates GTK as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners considers' Gentrack Group's -$12m investment in Australian technology company and energy retailer Amber Energy to be sensible.

The broker believes it will help Gentrack to integrate its customer care and billing solution with the latter's SmartShift technologies, which controls and automates household batteries, solar and electric vehicles to reduce energy bills.

The broker also observes Amber is growing fast and is relatively low risk, offering a good risk-reward equation.

Buy rating and $6.50 target price retained.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $0.4
If GTK meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie has reviewed its earnings forecasts and target prices across its lithium and rare earth coverage universe to account for dilution from recent capital raises.

Hastings Technology Metals' target falls to 62c from 93c, Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.03
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Buy (1) -

The IGO-Tianqi TLEA joint venture has explained the decision not to pay a dividend following the December quarter, saying upcoming capital expenditure and a conservative take on pricing was the driver.

As per Citi, however, with a lack of detail on the balance sheet as TLEA refrains from disclosing debt and cash, there's a lack of conviction for shareholders.

The broker believes a bull case could see TLEA pay an interim dividend in the March quarter. It expects Greenbushes can stockpile 200,000-250,000 tonnes on site by the end of the financial year, and elect to take extra volumes at the monthly pricing mechanism.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $8.60 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.56 Difference: $1.04
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.37, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

IGO has placed Cosmos (nickel) into care & maintenance, a key positive in Macquarie's view, as it reduces the uncertainty surrounding additional capital costs.

Dec Q sales from Greenbushes (lithium) were in line with expectations. Kwinana (lithium) hit ramp-up troubles but production was not hit as hard as the broker feared. Both Nova and Forrestania (nickel) had soft results but were still cash flow positive.

Taking all into account, Macquarie cuts its target to $9.20 from $9.90. Outperform retained.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.56 Difference: $1.64
If IGO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.37, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IGO as Equal-weight (3) -

The situation at IGO has gone from bad to worse, suggests Morgan Stanley.

As the Cosmos project has now been placed on care and maintenance, the company is thought to have a short nickel mine life, with Nova only operational until Q4 FY27, and Forrestania production ceasing in December this year.

Management flagged a further impairment for Nova and Forrestania of between -$160-190m, and downgraded FY24 production and cost guidance for both operations.

The target falls to $7.25 from $8.85. Equal-weight. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $7.56 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If IGO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.37, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IGO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

IGO continues its business reset, as per UBS, with the company this morning announcing its Cosmos site would be going into care and maintenance. The company has trimmed its full year nickel guidance accordingly.

The broker considers spodumene pricing and a sales volume ramp up from Greenbushes to be IGO's key value drivers at this point, but showed concern around downside to its forecasts given spot pricing and an undersupply coming out of the market.

Without sufficient reason to be more positive on lithium prices, UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy, and the target price decreases to $8.30 from $9.50 accounting for downgraded nickel and lithium valuations.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $7.56 Difference: $0.74
If IGO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.37, suggesting upside of 15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates INA as Buy (1) -

In a preview to interim results to be released later in February, Ord Minnett expresses the view that results for both Ingenia Communities and Lifestyle Communities are likely to be significantly skewed to the second half.

First half results are expected to be impacted by a slower rate of settlements.

Specifically relating to Ingenia Communities, Ord Minnett sees FY24 guidance as "reasonable", irrespective of disappointment over the past 18-24 months.

Expressing its preference for Ingenia Communities, the broker's Buy rating remains in place, while the price target lifts to $5.10 from $4.60.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.48 Difference: $0.62
If INA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JMS as Outperform (1) -

Jupiter Mines' Dec Q was soft, Macquarie notes, with stronger production offset by lower shipments and realised prices which drove earnings to be -70% lower than expected.

The broker points out manganese pricing is now expected to have bottomed, and the company previously released a strategy update, focused on becoming the largest manganese producer globally.

Numerous studies and efficiency updates, including the M&A strategy, are expected over the next 12 months.

Outperform and 25c target retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.065
If JMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Karoon Energy to $2.49 from $2.51 following the recent 2Q operational report.

A summary of the broker's prior research for the 2Q is as follows:

Karoon Energy has reduced 2024 production guidance by around -7% to 11.2-13.5mmboe due to an unplanned outage in Brazil requiring intervention, explains Morgan Stanley.

Management also increased FY24 production cost guidance to US$10.5-15.0/boe, a rise of 11% at the midpoint of previous guidance, owing to the lower production outlook.

 Overweight. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $2.49 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.535
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KAR as Accumulate (2) -

Karoon Energy's fair value estimate has remained $2.65 at Ord Minnett following the release of production numbers for the December quarter.

Reported numbers showed an -8% decline against the preceding quarter, and missed the broker's estimate (by quite a margin). This is reflected in downgrades to FY24 forecasts.

Karoon Energy is changing its reporting season to a calendar year. In February, a transition year for the six months to December will be released.

While the acquisition of Who Dat is seen as a positive, current growth projections for the five years ahead only imply EBITDA CAGR of 5% by FY28. Accumulate.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $1.96 Difference: $0.695
If KAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.76, suggesting upside of 41.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LIC as Hold (3) -

In a preview to interim results to be released later in February, Ord Minnett expresses the view that results for both Ingenia Communities and Lifestyle Communities are likely to be significantly skewed to the second half.

First half results are expected to be impacted by a slower rate of settlements.

Ingenia Communities is the preferred choice with Ord Minnett's rating for Lifestyle Communities on Hold with an upgraded price target of $18.70 (was $17.02).

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $18.03 Difference: $0.67
If LIC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.93, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LOT as Buy (1) -

Lotus Resources' December-quarter trading update appears to have met Shaw and Partners' forecasts.

The broker says the surge in the uranium price should incentivise the Kayelekera Uranium asset back into production and expects a final investment decision in the June quarter all of which will involve upfront investment.

The company is in negotiations to establish offtake agreements with US and European utilities. Buy rating and 72c target price retained.

Target price is $0.72 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.355
If LOT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Liontown Resources has indicated that construction at Kathleen Valley was 72% completed at the end of Dec Q, with first production on schedule for mid-2024. During the quarter, underground mining commenced.

Soft lithium pricing caused the recently announced $760m debt package to be terminated by the lenders and a smaller package now being negotiated. Securing that package would be a short term de-risking event, Macquarie suggests.

Short-term lithium price weakness and funding uncertainty lead the broker to retain a cautious outlook. Neutral and $1.00 target retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

While there is potential for further weakness in the lithium sector, Morgans suggests the down cycle has largely played out, presenting some attractive value opportunities. It's felt the further spot prices fall, the more severe the resulting supply response.

The broker makes material downward revisions (short and long-term) to forecasts for lithium spodumene, carbonate and hydroxide.

From among stocks under coverage, the broker recommends investors stick with quality: namely Add-rated Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals.

Liontown Resources is rated Hold as the analysts feel management is in a tricky situation with current spot lithium prices indicating a potential funding gap for the development of the Kathleen Valley project.

The target is lowered to $1.00 from $2.03.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting upside of 18.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates M7T as Buy (1) -

Mach7 Technologies' December-quarter cash flow appears to have pleased Shaw and Partners, the broker appreciating the company's 25% jump in sales orders and strong pipeline.

Management updated FY24 guidance (rising sales, lower revenue and reduced operating expenditure) and reiterated guidance of being cash-flow positive for FY24.

If the company remains on this sales and cost trajectory, the broker speculates an upward revision could be on the cards for the June half.

Buy rating and $1.30 target price retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.595
If M7T meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

While there is potential for further weakness in the lithium sector, Morgans suggests the down cycle has largely played out, presenting some attractive value opportunities. It's felt the lower spot prices fall, the more severe the resulting supply response.

The broker makes material downward revisions (short and long-term) to forecasts for lithium spodumene, carbonate and hydroxide.

From among stocks under coverage, the broker recommends investors stick with quality: namely Add-rated Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals. Liontown Resources is rated Hold.

The analysts are attracted to the diversified lithium exposure afforded by Mineral Resources, with earnings contributions from iron ore and mining services partly offsetting lower lithium earnings. The target is lowered to $72 from $83.

Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $59.95 Difference: $12.05
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $68.00, suggesting upside of 16.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Metro Mining has hit an annual production record in 2023 observes Shaw and Partners but the cash balance proved a -33% miss due to costs related to Cyclone Jasper.

The company has gained an extra $20m in short term funding and, while expensive, the broker posits it is less dilutive than an equity raise.

Buy rating and 6c target price retained.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.039
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MZZ as Buy (1) -

Matador Mining's December-quarter report revealed progress on exploration, Shaw and Partners observing many advanced stage drill-ready exploration targets were identified.

The company closed the quarter with $10.1m in cash and the broker considers it to be well funded to meet exploration costs for 2024.

Buy recommendation and 19c target price retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.03 Difference: $0.157
If MZZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 476% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Having returned from the company's site tour at Laverton, Citi analysts report they have become incrementally more positive on Nufarm.

Key takeaway is that demand levels have surged in December with this momentum continuing through, with the broker attributing this largely to "precipitation", particularly across the East Coast.

The broker reports Nufarm now expects less 1H earnings skew compared to the 60:40 management alluded to back in November.

It is Citi's observation management remains cost conscious and disciplined around working capital, while also exploring options to expand capacity. Buy. Target $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.58 Difference: $0.02
If NUF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.10, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a muted sharemarket reaction to 2Q results for Origin Energy, with production and sales broadly in line with expectations.

Positively, the company reached a final investment decision (FID) on Mortlake Battery at an estimated cost of -$400m, while Octopus added 400,000 UK customers and reached around 53m accounts on the Kraken platform.

Kracken is Octopus' software based on advanced data and machine learning that supports energy efficiency for electricity and gas customers. 

Target $8.88 and Overweight rating. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $8.52 Difference: $0.36
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Returning from research restriction on Origin Energy, UBS's come-back includes a Buy rating (unchanged from before) and $9.60 price target ($7.40 previously).

It is the broker's conviction call Origin Energy is a unique large cap energy transition exposure, with the company destined to play a key role in decarbonising Australia's electricity sector.

Forecasts for strong cash distributions underpin dividend estimates that translate into a 6-7% yield (fully franked) over FY24-26. The company is UBS's preferred exposure in the sector locally.

DPS estimates in particular have been upgraded.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $8.52 Difference: $1.08
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.96, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

It is Ord Minnett's view Pacific Current Group's Q2 update revealed better-than-expected net flows combined with a solid performance in funds under management (FUM). The latter was achieved despite AUD headwinds, the broker adds.

Ord Minnett continues to view the shares as "cheap", in particular when measured against the likely earnings outlook for the company.

Buy rating not simply retained, it is hereby re-iterated. Target unchanged at $12.20.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $2.76
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PBH as Buy (1) -

PointsBet Holdings's December-quarter result outpaced Bell Potter's forecasts, the company posting an 11% rise in total net win due to a beat in Australia.

Management reiterated FY24 guidance and confirmed the sale of the US business will be finalised in the June quarter yielding a second capital distribution.

Buy rating and $1.08 target price rating retained.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.14
If PBH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PBH as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett retains its Buy rating with a fresh price target of $1.05 (up from 95c) following PointsBet Holdings' market update. The implication is the company is executing well in Australia while the Canadian business achieved a record quarter for Net win.

The broker reminds investors, with one state remaining for final regulatory approval, the sale of the US business is approaching, and with it an anticipated cash distribution of 39c-44c sometime over the next five months.

The broker is looking forward to the release of financial details with the FY24 result this month, which should be accompanied by the approval of the final US state transfer to the Fanatics.

Forecasts have improved (smaller losses).

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.11
If PBH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PEN as Buy (1) -

Peninsula Energy's December-quarter result appears to have met Shaw and Partners' forecasts.

The broker stresses that Peninsula Energy is one of the cheapest uranium stocks on the ASX and is trading at a sharp -90% discount to peer Boss Energy's ((BOE)) enterprise value.

Quarterly highlights included the raising of $60m to restart the Lance Uranium Project in Wyoming. Peninsula Energy is negotiating with financiers to gain funds to take the project to first cash flow.

Buy rating and 34c target price retained.

Target price is $0.34 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.21
If PEN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 162% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PLS as Add (1) -

While there is potential for further weakness in the lithium sector, Morgans suggests the down cycle has largely played out, presenting some attractive value opportunities. It's felt the further spot prices fall, the more severe the resulting supply response.

The broker makes material downward revisions (short and long-term) to forecasts for lithium spodumene, carbonate and hydroxide.

From among stocks under coverage, the broker recommends investors stick with quality: namely Add-rated Mineral Resources and Pilbara Minerals. Liontown Resources is rated Hold.

Morgans' target for Pilbara Minerals falls to $4.60 from $5.00. It's thought the company is well positioned to weather the downturn in lithium prices given it owns the best hard rock lithium mine globally and has a strong balance sheet.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: $1.05
If PLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PLY as Buy (1) -

Playside Studios' December-quarter result outpaced Shaw and Partners' forecasts and upgraded FY24 revenue guidance - its third upgrade for the year.

The broker believes this reflects strong momentum, building on the company's strong industry partnership and ownership of its IP.

Gross free cash flow hit a record $6.8m and the company closed the quarter with a cash balance of $38.3m.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to 90c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.73 Difference: $0.175
If PLY meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

QBE Insurance overtakes Suncorp Group ((SUN)) as Morgan Stanley's top pick in the space given the multitude of ways QBE can boost earnings and improve stability.

The broker believes the share price can re-rate via the generation of stable earnings growth, remedying the business in North America (the key), and by the implemention of capital management initiatives.

The insurer should soon have surplus capital (for the first time in a decade) and could increase the payout ratio. With only 10% franking, buybacks could be contemplated.

Morgan Stanley raises its target to $20 from $18.20. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.85 Difference: $4.15
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.61, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RED as Buy (1) -

Red 5's pre-released performance numbers signalled higher-than-forecast costs, plus a reclassification of capex, growth to sustaining.

Ord Minnett simply comments its base case valuation is not impacted. Target remains 37c. 

The broker retains a positive view on growth potential from further expansion, plus the company is seen as an attractive take-over target. Buy.

Red 5 is accelerating debt repayments and the broker has adjusted its modeling accordingly.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.055
If RED meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SHV as Buy (1) -

Select Harvests' crop and pricing update pleased Bell Potter.

The broker retains its crop forecasts but upgrades price forecasts to reflect rising almond prices.

Should the company's transformation program pay-off, margin rises could be on the cards, says the broker.

Until then, Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $4.70 from $4.60. FY24 EPS forecasts move into positive territory

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.98
If SHV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SHV as Neutral (3) -

A trading update from Select Harvests demonstrated improving almond prices, a normalised crop size, and better than expected cost control, but it was commentary on the cost outlook that proved the positive surprise for UBS.

The company suggests costs are tracking flat to down year-on-year, underpinning an increase to the broker's full year earnings forecast to $30m from $15m.

With cost assumptions beyond FY25 no longer including further cost-out, however, the broker's earnings forecasts are cut -16% over FY26 and FY27.

The broker considers the risk-reward balanced for the stock. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price increases to $4.20 from $4.50.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.48
If SHV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUL as Neutral (3) -

Super Retail's first half trading update showed sales grew despite a soft consumer environment and cycling tough comparables, Macquarie notes. Earnings were 3% ahead of expectations despite these headwinds and previously flagged cost inflation.

The company is navigating a tough macro backdrop well, the broker suggests. Super Retail has now been beating market expectations over the past 18 months despite inflationary pressures.

But the stock has rallied 40% in FY24 to date and is trading at an elevated multiple. Hence Neutral retained. Target rises to $16.15 from $12.60.

Target price is $16.15 Current Price is $15.97 Difference: $0.18
If SUL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.54, suggesting downside of -8.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Sayona Mining's solid Dec Q production was offset by soft sales and weak realised prices, Macquarie notes. Operating costs in the quarter were 22% higher than the broker's estimates, with an optimisation review underway.

The company is at a crossroads, Macquarie suggests, to balance its cash flow, organic growth and meeting its offtake commitments. Cost optimisation remains a key focus in the near term.

The broker's production and sales forecasts are both at the lower end of guidance. Target falls to 4c from 9c, downgrade to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Syrah Resources's December-quarter result outpaced Shaw and Partners' estimates on Balama production, but missed on pricing.

The broker observes commissioning of Vidalia continues and that the final capital cost has edged higher.

Chinese graphite inventories and demand continue to drag on prices and much depends on developments on this front, says the broker.

The company closed the quarter with cash of US$85m and embarked on various capital raising projects in the quarter, planning to complete its US$150m DFC loan this half.

Buy rating and $1.30 target price retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.88
If SYR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 210% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 150.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -

Despite Syrah Resources delivering a largely in-line December quarter result according to UBS, market conditions remain challenging. The company reported production of 20,000 tonnes and sales of 17,000 tonnes, at higher C1 costs of US$534 per tonne.

The company reported an average realised price of US$490 per tonne during the period, down -8% quarter-on-quarter, but Syrah Resources believes current price levels are unsustainable.

Syrah Resources continues to reiterate its place as the only meaningful natural graphite producer outside of China, and looks to diversify sales away from the region.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.00 from $1.05.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.58
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 138% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.98, suggesting upside of 150.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TBN as Outperform (1) -

Tamboran Resources is now on the cusp of what Macquarie expects will be the most significant Beetaloo well to date. If the well exceeds expectations, Beetaloo acreage values could re-rate significantly, the broker suggests.

The company has cash in the bank post its capital raise but debt access will be key in funding the pilot project.

Macquarie reiterates Outperform, believing the market is overlooking the value of vast Beetaloo basin gas acreage, and this could be about to change.

Target rises to 36c from 35c.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.19
If TBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates TBN as Buy (1) -

Tamboran Resources' December-quarter report appears to have met Shaw and Partners' forecasts, the company finalising Shenandoah South 1H with results due this quarter.

Highlights included company's redomiciling to the US where shale gas investors are more prolific; and the completion of its $55m equity placement and entitlement offer (at 16c).

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 37c from 42c to reflect the dilution.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.2
If TBN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Wine exports appear to have improved significantly in the December quarter, according to data from Wine Australia, with volumes up 2.2% year-on-year but value up 22.8% year-on-year.

Hong Kong proved the strongest growth market, and UBS explains the country is a major trading hub and wine may be on-shipped to other Asian markets from Hong Kong. Volumes increased 68.6% and value 151.8%, although wines over $10 proved stronger still with value up 167.6%.

The broker expects this result reflects both ongoing efforts to grow Australian wine in these markets, increasing confidence that China will remove duties on Australian wine. This confidence underpins the retained Buy rating on Treasury Wine Estates. 

The target price of $14.00 is retained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $10.77 Difference: $3.23
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Westgold Resources had already released its Dec Q production numbers but the full report showed costs 11% higher than Macquarie's estimate. The company blamed a review of its employee remuneration strategy, in an effort to attract and retain staff in a tight WA labour market.

FY24 production guidance is maintained.

The successful ramp-up of the Fender mine is important near-term, the broker suggests, and development of Great Fingall remains important longer-term. Outperform and $2.50 target retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $0.29
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources