Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates A2M as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes the company's upcoming update on November 19 will be key to providing confidence in the short-term growth outlook or justifying the current negative sentiment.

Macquarie expects strong infant formula wholesale price increases should be realised and export volumes remain supportive of supply growth.

What is unclear is demand. The broker maintains an Outperform rating, given the medium-term growth expectations and long-term opportunity. Target is reduced to $15.70 from $16.70.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $11.61 Difference: $4.09
If A2M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.91, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Sanctioned projects are now included in Macquarie's forecasts, expected to counter some field decline in the near term. Scarborough, Wilding and Trion are likely to be the projects achieving sanction in the next 12-24 months, in the broker's assessment.

The company's outlook for the petroleum division is significantly more positive than Macquarie's base case when unsanctioned projects are included. Petroleum is expected to be a positive contributor from the trough in FY21.

Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $40 from $39.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $36.75 Difference: $3.25
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.47, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAT as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Catapult Group has renewed and expanded its deal with Rugby Australia, in the wake of renewing its deal with the NRL, meaning no more material renewals upcoming in the near future.

The key to RA's renewal was the technology, Morgans notes, not the price, suggesting R&D investment is paying dividends.

The broker now expects Catapult to achieve FY20 sales, earnings and cash flow targets, and has upgraded to Add from Hold in anticipation of outperformance ahead.

De-risking means the broker has also lowered its cost of capital assumption, leading to a target price increase to $2.19 from $1.56.

Target price is $2.19 Current Price is $1.76 Difference: $0.43
If CAT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Underlying (ex-CFSGAM sale) Citi analysts believe CBA's Q1 performance came out 3% ahead of consensus. While revenues were a positive surprise, the analysts do highlight there was impact from favourable one-offs.

The negative news is that any share buyback is probably delayed by some 18 months. The latter causes Citi to reduce forecasts by -1%-3%. Citi cannot help but think CBA's premium valuation versus the rest of the sector will come under pressure.

Sell rating retained. Target price $72.50 (was $73.25).

Target price is $72.50 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $6.83 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse downgrades FY20 estimates by -2% and FY21 by -3% following the first quarter trading update. As per the other banks, the broker now factors in a further -$300m for FY20, predominantly a top-up of aligned dealer group remediation.

Buyback expectations are lowered to $2.5bn, to be executed in FY21, given Credit Suisse considers 11% to be the new key level in terms of the CET1 ratio. Neutral rating and $77.60 target maintained.

Target price is $77.60 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $1.73 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes, despite management's objective of reducing the overall expense base, costs have continued to increase. While the bank's capital position leads the sector, the broker envisages scope for capital management.

Nevertheless, the risk for a dividend cut cannot be ruled out. Headline performance in the first quarter was broadly in line with expectations. Macquarie retains an Underperform rating and raises the target to $75 from $72.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $4.33 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

First quarter cash profit was up 5% on the second half and ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. Flat loan losses and better-than-forecast revenue offset higher costs and slightly weaker-than-expected capital.

However, the broker considers the stock fully valued and suspects there is downside to consensus expectations. Underweight maintained. Target is $70. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $9.33 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Commonwealth Bank's quarterly earnings result suggests an FY run-rate some 3% ahead of Morgan's forecast. There were some one-offs included, but the good news was an increase in net interest income, actual loan growth in the current environment, and no new remediation provisions.

The broker has made no major changes to forecasts and maintains a $74 target. Hold retained given, as always, the stock is relatively expensive compared to peers.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $5.33 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett was surprised by the strength in net interest income in the first quarter although notes non-interest income was boosted by one-off factors, which are unlikely to recur.

The broker cuts estimates by -4% on average over FY20-22, to reflect a re-assessment of how long elevated regulatory costs are likely to persist.

The stock appears expensive, in the broker's view, and a Hold rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $74.00 from $74.20.

Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $5.33 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

First quarter trading update was strong with cash net profit of around $2.3bn. While UBS considers this a good number, it remains cautious about extrapolating quarterly updates because these are inherently volatile.

Moreover, the first quarter is seasonally stronger for the bank and it benefited from a delay in passing through its variable mortgage rate reductions to customers. Earnings forecasts are upgraded by 1-2%. Sell rating and $70 target maintained.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $79.33 Difference: minus $9.33 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.30, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCL as Sell (5) -

Citi analysts, while retaining their Sell rating, have revisited their assumptions and forecasts for the company on a steady recovery in the share price this year. Their forecast is for EPS to fall by -1% in FY19, then rise 7% in FY20, and then revert to 3% growth in FY21.

The analysts acknowledge the shares look cheap relative to their own history and to overseas peers, but the lack of sustainable growth makes up for it, in their view.

It is Citi's view this company continues to suffer from quality in revenue growth, and on this basis no change to the rating or $9.70 price target.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $10.43 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If CCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.54, suggesting downside of -8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CGC as Buy (1) -

UBS reduces the target to $3.25, from $5.20, to reflect the impact of the capital raising and the company's recent downgrade to expectations.

The broker notes the year has been challenging, with six of the company's nine categories experiencing headwinds that are largely outside of its control.

The main question, in the broker's opinion, centres on what a normal year for the company really looks like and where the stock should trade, given the lack of visibility.

With the balance sheet post the capital raising well within covenants and expectations of three-year earnings growth of 24%, UBS continues to believe the stock should trade at a premium to listed peers.

That said visibility over 2020 is unlikely to improve until early in the second quarter. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.76 Difference: $0.49
If CGC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CLW as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett updates its modelling to account for around $750m in acquisitions since August. The portfolio now amounts to $2.9bn, with the shares trading at a 5.4% distribution yield and offering a three-year compound growth rate of 4%.

The business is favourably exposed to elevated return spreads and an evolving interest-rate cycle, in the broker's view. Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $5.75 from $5.65.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.35 Difference: $0.4
If CLW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.47, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DHG as Reduce (5) -

Domain Holdings is continuing to pursue cuts in operating costs as a precautionary measure as new listing volumes remain weak. The company is hoping for a second half uplift, Morgans notes, but is not taking any chances.

The broker has trimmed its expectations of such an uplift, while noting Domain is progressing in increasing depth penetration. Target falls to $2.43 from $2.52, Reduce retained.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.15, suggesting downside of -6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

With underlying fundamentals remaining favourable, and several items such as Assets under Management (AUM) tracking ahead of expectations, Citi analysts believe Goodman Group is on course to exceed its own guidance for FY20.

Citi suggests investors should anticipate an upgrade to guidance at the interim result release in February. Equally important, there doesn't appear to have been any impact from the Hong Kong turmoil as yet.

All of the above, combined with an "exceptionally strong balance sheet", keeps the rating on Buy. Citi sees 3-year EPS CAGR of 11% which is seen as attractive compared to global industrial peers. Target unchanged at $17.60.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $3.28
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

First quarter development returns were solid, Macquarie observes, and while new projects are likely to generate lower returns, the existing development book should underpin material development profits and assets growth.

Earnings guidance has been reaffirmed for FY20 and the recent de-rating of the stock has improved valuation support, the broker adds. Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and reduces the target to $15.69 from $17.38.

Target price is $15.69 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $1.37
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

The company has reaffirmed FY20 guidance for earnings per share of 56.3c, up 9% on FY19. External funds under management have increased to $44.9bn as of June 2019 and development work in progress is now at $4.2bn.

Morgan Stanley believes the company's re-development of existing assets is a feature that has been under appreciated.

The broker suggests industrial assets are likely to be one of the few classes able to drive strong positive annual cash growth, as retail is hampered by structural headwinds and office incentives are starting to increase.

Overweight rating and $16.05 target maintained. In-Line industry view.

Target price is $16.05 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $1.73
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Sell (5) -

The company has reaffirmed FY20 guidance for 9% growth in operating earnings, driven by higher management, investment and performance fees.

Ord Minnett considers the business well run, with a good balance sheet and strong prospects.

Hence, the Sell rating is based on valuation, as Goodman Group is considered to be over-earning and trading on elevated multiples. Target rises to $12.40 from $12.20.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: minus $1.92 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Buy (1) -

The company continues to benefit from its differentiated approach, UBS suggests. This reflects a deliberate concentration in key infill, high-value and supply-constrained markets.

Also, the company is growing capital partnering in development projects, leading to an outperformance of its funds.

Management has maintained expectations for development work in hand to accelerate to $5bn in FY20. Growth guidance for earnings per share of 9% has been maintained. UBS maintains a Buy rating and $15.60 target.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $1.28
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.35, suggesting upside of 7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Bottom line: Citi analysts believe market forecasts might be due for a reset lower as fertiliser sales remain sluggish. For Explosives, the analysts believe pricing leverage will likely only show up in FY21 (due to longer term contracts).

The release of FY19 financials resulted in a disappointment, not because of FY19 numbers, but because of FY20 guidance. Citi analysts reduced forecasts by -22% and -11% for FY20-21. These cuts have a direct impact on forecast dividends.

The analysts observe drought conditions had a material impact with demand for the company's highest margin ammoniac product literally drying up (that's probably a pun intended). Downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target price steady at $3.55.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.05
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Queensland flooding, drought and a third-party gas pipeline outage in the US negatively affected earnings in FY19. Adjusted for a land sale, Credit Suisse assesses the result was marginally ahead of September guidance.

Given the extent of the disruptions and consequent large reduction in profitability, the broker is encouraged by the stability in the fourth quarter that was in evidence.

There were no surprises in the outlook. A formal process to explore the sale of the Australian fertilisers business will enable market interest to be tested, the broker notes. Outperform rating maintained. Target rises to $3.82 from $3.73.

Target price is $3.82 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

FY19 net profit was boosted by a post-tax $9m on a US land sale. Nevertheless, the result would still have been ahead of Macquarie's forecasts. The broker expects FY20 to be a better year, given the extent of one-off issues in FY19.

However, Australia's drought is ongoing and fertiliser prices are starting from lower levels. Macquarie reduces FY20 and FY21 estimates by -12% and -6% respectively. Outperform rating maintained. Target is raised to $3.78 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.28
If IPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IPL as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

FY19 earnings were 4% ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. This was supported by a land sale without which earnings would be in line. North American explosives also surprised to the upside, particularly after declining volumes were experienced in the first half.

The broker does not believe the issues that greatly affected FY19 will persist into FY20. However, delivery of a clean FY20 is crucial for the company and, regardless of the outcome, there are headwinds from challenging fertiliser markets and domestic seasonal conditions.

Hence, the broker considers the stock expensive and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight. Cautious industry view. Target is raised to $3.20 from $3.10.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IPL as Hold (3) -

For Incitec Pivot, FY19 was the year in which everything that could have gone wrong did, the broker notes. Thus no surprises in a weak earnings result. A number of issues should reverse in FY20, but the company still faces weak fertiliser prices and the ongoing drought.

Morgans is nonetheless assuming more average cropping seasons and thus fertiliser prices from here, hence a target increase to $3.52 from $3.36. Hold retained at fair value, with a strategic review of the fertiliser business a possible source of upside.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0.02
If IPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IPL as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

FY19 earnings (EBIT), while down -45.4%, were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The stock has reached a level where the broker considers the risks and rewards are balanced.

Louisiana earnings and improved explosives demand are expected to support growth, although weak fertiliser pricing and poor weather are likely to remain headwinds.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy as the stock has traded through the new target of $3.40, reduced from $3.45.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If IPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

FY19 earnings (EBIT) of $304m were down -45%, slightly ahead of UBS estimates. The result was negatively affected by several factors including flooding, higher US gas costs and unplanned outages.

The company has not provided formal earnings guidance, given the volatility in global fertiliser prices. However, UBS expects a recovery in FY22 earnings to $500m.

Of note, the broker assumes no material recovery in Australian agricultural and drought conditions. Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.32.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $0
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

The company has acquired Gatherwell, an online lottery platform, and entered the UK market. The acquisition price is GBP5m.

Gatherwell will provide a presence in UK social/local lotteries and Morgan Stanley envisages it as a beachhead for Powered by Jumbo to enter more established UK lotteries and cross sell, as well as export the offer into smaller Australian charity lotteries.

Target is $24. Overweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $20.25 Difference: $3.75
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

The extent of the TV weakness, highlighted at the AGM, was greater than Credit Suisse expected. The company is now guiding to low single-digit growth in FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA). Growth is expected to be skewed to the second half.

Guidance for the first half indicates operating earnings will be down -10%. The broker reduces TV estimates in line with guidance and now incorporates a -5% decline in the free-to-air market in FY20.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.05 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.33
If NEC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

While trends in TV remain of concern, Macquarie believes value exists across the portfolio. The company has reduced guidance for FY20, primarily because of weak TV and radio advertising markets.

Earnings growth is now expected to be in the low single digits while first half operating earnings (EBITDA) are expected to be down -10%. This implies a strong second half bias and better outcomes at Domain Holdings ((DHG)) amid ongoing capture of synergies.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.05 from $2.10.

Target price is $2.05 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.33
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett lowers estimates for metropolitan free-to-air TV advertising expenditure, expecting a decline of -7.5% in the first half of FY20 and -4.0% in the second half.

This equates to a full-year decline of -5.8%, in line with management's guidance of a mid single-digit decline.

The broker also lowers estimates for metropolitan revenue share to 39.5% in the first half. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.35 from $2.55.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.63
If NEC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NEC as Buy (1) -

The company has downgraded FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) expectations to growth of low single digits. The main driver of the downgrade is TV market weakness.

 Additionally, the performance of both Macquarie Radio and Domain Holdings ((DHG)) have been weaker than expected.

The company is now guiding for a first half operating earnings decline of -10%. This implies a second-half recovery to growth of 20%, UBS suggests.

To deliver this outcome, the broker believes Domain needs to provide positive earnings growth in the second half and the decline in TV market advertising needs to slow.

Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.15.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.28
If NEC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.15, suggesting upside of 25.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Underperform (5) -

Commentary from the AGM suggests to Macquarie that there are greater headwinds to margins than the market realises. The company has retained expectations for net flows in FY20 of more than $7bn.

The broker does not disagree with the company's desire to invest in its platform but struggles with the valuation. Underperform rating maintained. Target is $6.20.

Target price is $6.20 Current Price is $8.85 Difference: minus $2.65 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.75, suggesting downside of -12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates OZL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Citi has downgraded OZ Minerals to Neutral from Buy with a reduced price target of $12, down from $12.40. The analysts are trying to balance opposing risks with delivering a big project such as is Carrapateena on time and budget with signs the price of copper might be stabilising.

Citi remains of the view this remains a stand-out against other copper exposures, on the ASX and elsewhere. The analysts suggest investors should look through short term set backs at Carrapateena.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: $1.52
If OZL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -

The update on the resource and reserves shows Carrapateena's sub-level cave reserve life has increased marginally. Very marginally, Credit Suisse suggests.

Prominent Hill underground mine life has been extended one year to 2031, consistent with expectations. Pre-production capital guidance for Carrapateena has increased to $950-980m.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is $8.50.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: minus $1.98 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates OZL as Outperform (1) -

The updated reserve and resource estimates indicate first production at Carrapateena has been delayed to December. Mine life assumptions have increased at both Prominent Hill and Carrapateena.

2020 production guidance is expected at the release of the December quarter production report in January, providing more clarity and likely to be a significant catalyst in Macquarie's view.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $12.30 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: $1.82
If OZL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates OZL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes a reclassification of capital expenditure along with a one-month delay to Carrapateena. The broker does not believe this is likely to have any impact on valuation.

First concentrate at Carrapateena has been delayed to December. Projected costs of pre-production have been lifted to $950-980m. Former guidance for 2019 for Carrapateena has been removed, given the delay.

Equal-weight rating and $10.70 target maintained. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $10.70 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: $0.22
If OZL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates OZL as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

The Carrapateena reserve grade has been cut to 1.6-1.8% (-11%) after a re-design of the sub-level cave footprint.

The company has pointed to a one-month delay in first production at Carrapateena while adding one year to the mine life of Prominent Hill. Incorporating the changes, reduces Ord Minnett's valuation by -4%.

This leads to a downgrade to the rating to Lighten from Hold. Target is reduced to $9.60 from $10.10.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $10.48 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.79, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Through its purchase of two buildings in North Sydney, Stockland has amalgamated a 2300sqm site. Based on the rental outlook, Morgan Stanley calculates the company could deliver around $270m in value to shareholders if its project crystallises.

Vacancy rates in North Sydney are around 9% currently, broadly in line with the 10-year and 30-year averages. However, there is competition, with the Victoria Cross metro station to be operating by 2024, which means the precinct will become more accessible to all parts of Sydney.

Overweight rating reiterated. Target is $5.50. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.89 Difference: $0.61
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.49, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Neutral (3) -

Following a field trip to WA and NT, Citi analysts have lifted their valuation by 4% on forecasts of stronger cash flows from the company's operations in both regions. Target price has lifted to $8.47 from $8.15.

In addition, Citi remains of the view Santos has the best balance sheet out of large-cap oil in Australia. This remains Citi's favourite pick in the sector, though Neutral rating is retained.

Further adding to their conviction, Citi analysts struggle to see downside risk outside of oil prices, based upon several operational catalysts and the company's long-term growth profile.

Target price is $8.47 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $0.37
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.30, suggesting upside of 2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Forecast for FY20:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources