Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

AGL Energy's FY23 profit beat Macquarie and came in at the top end of guidance. FY24 guidance is unchanged. With the investor day in June, there was no change to the strategy, and hence no step-change in the progress of the energy hubs/battery/renewable projects.

Operationally, AGL had strong beats in gas, and retail, offset by higher central costs and non-cash interest expense. But repricing swamps broader cost pressure, milder weather, and re-emerging competition in retail, the broker suggests.

Neutral and $11.43 target retained.

Target price is $11.43 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.21
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.69, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AGL as Hold (3) -

FY23 profit for AGL Energy was at the high end of management's guidance range after H2 profit came in much stronger than H1 as higher tariffs lent earnings support, explains Morgans.

FY23 profit was a beat versus the broker and consensus by 14% and 6%, respectively, and the 23c unfranked dividend was also a strong beat.

While the electricity market could be squeezed again, leading to higher earnings for AGL, Morgans believes the electricity market is more likely to attract government intervention, undercutting those potential profits. Hold.

Despite higher earnings forecasts due to stronger Customer Markets margins than expected, the broker's target falls to $10.20 from $10.53 due to a valuation roll forward.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.69, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AGL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the outlook for AGL Energy is improving as management has confirmed FY24 net profit guidance of $580-780m, up 142% on FY23 at the mid point.

The major improvement is expected to be driven by higher retail electricity prices from passing through of high wholesale prices, amid improved generation availability and flexibility.

These items should comfortably offset the lost earnings from the closure of the Liddell power station and higher operating costs, the broker assesses.  Target is $12.80. Hold rating.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $1.58
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.69, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Buy (1) -

AGL Energy posted a FY23 result that was in line with expectations while maintaining guidance for FY24 and UBS expects net profit will more than double to $675m.

Strong outcomes are expected in the gas portfolio arising from lower purchasing costs although the broker does not expect FY23 outcomes to be repeated.

Electricity wholesale price forecasts are in line with current electricity futures over 2024-25. UBS retains a Buy rating and $12.15 target.

Target price is $12.15 Current Price is $11.22 Difference: $0.93
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.69, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALL as Overweight (1) -

While announcing 2Q results, US-based NeoGames confirmed its takeover by Aristocrat Leisure will be completed by H1 2024.

NeoGames also announced an agreement to enter five new European markets via a four-year deal with the Lotteries Entertainment
Innovation Alliance, which will see its content supplied in all the lotteries in Scandinavia, as well as in France.

The Overweight rating and $43 target for Aristocrat Leisure are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $41.69 Difference: $1.31
If ALL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $44.06, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

AMP delivered on its promises in the first half, Citi asserts, with targeted cost savings well above expectations. Yet in the second half costs are guided to rise and the broker warns investors need to take on the risk of court judgements and class actions.

Hence, although there is some clear sky emerging from the clouds, the broker prefers to stick with a Neutral rating. Target rises to $1.25 from $1.15.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.1
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Equal-weight (3) -

Underlying earnings in the 1H for AMP were 5% in advance of Morgan Stanley's forecast.

The broker believes a new cost-out program will support the stock price despite capital management being paused while the company awaits further clarity on litigation matters.

An interim dividend of 2.5cps was ahead of the broker's forecast for 1cps. The Equal-weight rating and $1.07 target are maintained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.07 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett believes AMP's transformation should deliver value for long-term shareholders. The broker envisages downside from fee margin compression being offset by greater volumes while cost efficiencies should offset growth expenditure.

The broker forecasts group operating margins averaging 33% per year over the next five years, ahead of the 2019-22 average of 27%.

The advice business also experienced narrower losses in the first half from the scaling of practices to deliver efficiencies and revenue per practice continues to grow. Accumulate rating and $1.35 target retained.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: $0.2
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.17, suggesting downside of -5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AQZ as Buy (1) -

Alliance Aviation Services posted FY23 results that were in line with its recent bullish guidance and Ord Minnett finds the outlook encouraging. The next 12 months should reveal the benefit of more planes in the air and the higher utilisation of the existing fleet.

Moreover, the FIFO segment also experienced 15% growth in revenue in FY23. The broker believes the business is on track to become a major operator in the domestic aviation market, ultimately with a fleet size comparable with Virgin Australia.

On the topic of the proposed takeover, opposed by the ACCC in April, Ord Minnett notes there are no signs yet from Qantas Airways ((QAN)) as to its next move.

Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and $4.50 target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $1.04
If AQZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Arena REIT's reported earnings fell -2% short of Macquarie. FY24 dividend guidance is also -2% below, but the broker still finds the long term trajectory attractive.

Earnings growth will be supported by improving development returns. The ACCC inquiry may be an overhang but Macquarie is comfortable on affordability, and is keen on a long term forecasts of 5% per annum earnings growth for a defensive portfolio.

Outperform and $4.04 target retained.

Target price is $4.04 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.22
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses a sound FY23 result for Arena REIT, and a slight miss on FY24 guidance was probably due to consensus underestimating future interest expenses.

The REIT reported FY23 profit of $60m, while FY24 dividend guidance is for 17.4cpu compared to the brokers 17.3cpu forecast.

Thanks to CPI linkages, observes the analyst, there was a FY23 rent increase of 6.8%. It's noted around 85% of rent reviews are indexed to CPI in FY24.

The Equal-Weight rating and target price of $4.36 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.36 Current Price is $3.82 Difference: $0.54
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ARX as Add (1) -

Aroa Biosurgery's distribution partner for OviTex, TELA, noted procedure volumes are nearly back to pre-covid levels when reporting 2Q results.

In a further positive for Aroa, the broker notes strong results by TELA which is managing down inventory levels and seeing increasing sales momentum for its 2H.

The Add rating and $1.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.86 Difference: $0.645
If ARX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AUB as Outperform (1) -

AUB Group has provided an update ahead of its result, suggesting profit 5.6% above Macquarie's forecast and above the midpoint of FY23 guidance.

While AUB has specifically called out Tysers performing ahead of expectations, the boost from robust trading in May and June supports the broker's view the beat is supported by broad-based organic operational performance and M&A execution.

Earnings upside of 11-14% implied over the medium term compares to Macquarie's 9% forecast, but the broker does not include potential M&A.

Target rises to $32.28 from $29.78, Outperform retained.

Target price is $32.28 Current Price is $28.58 Difference: $3.7
If AUB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AUB as Hold (3) -

AUB Group expects FY23 underlying net profit of $129m, around 4% above the top end of prior guidance. Ord Minnett finds the benefits of higher insurance prices to be a clear tailwind.

The broker lifts earnings forecast to match guidance, and net profit forecasts incorporate higher commissions with premiums increasing at high single digit rates.

At the results later in August, the broker will reassess how much of the increase in insurance rates is likely flowing through to insurance brokers. Hold rating and $29 target maintained.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $28.58 Difference: $0.42
If AUB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AUB as Buy (1) -

AUB Group has provided its fourth upgrade to guidance for FY23, with underlying net profit up 5.7% from the midpoint of the prior range, at $129m.

UBS interprets the implied upgrade to second half profitability as coming from the last six weeks of trading into the seasonally important June renewal period.

Additionally, Tysers continues to perform ahead of expectations and the broker suspects strategic initiatives are running ahead of plan at this early stage of integration. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $32.99 from $32.50.

Target price is $32.99 Current Price is $28.58 Difference: $4.41
If AUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.82, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLD as Sell (5) -

Despite the improved performance in FY23, on further analysis Citi asserts the share price of Boral has run ahead of fundamentals and risk/reward is skewed to the downside.

Sell rating and $3.60 target maintained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BLD as Outperform (1) -

It was a strong result from Boral, ahead of Macquarie's expectations, suggesting the company is "controlling the controllables".

Price traction remains strong across the portfolio, the broker notes, overhead costs were down -7% year on year and safety performance, as a proxy for better engagement, improved 47%.

The turnaround is gaining traction on multiple fronts, with customer service, logistics efficiency and moderating input cost inflation ahead, although Macquarie is a little more cautious on the outlook for residential than management appears to be.

Outperform retained, target rises to $5.15 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.41
If BLD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BLD as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley raises its target price for Boral following FY23 results to $3.50 from $3.00 following a 2H reversal of headwinds from both weather and costs. The absence of a dividend surprised.

Earnings (EBIT) were a 12% beat versus the broker's forecast, demonstrating the impact of meaningful price increases overcoming costs.

While FY24 earnings guidance of $270-300m beat the forecasts by the broker and consensus of $262m and $274m, respectively, the analyst points out the guidance assumes "no significant shift in market demand or price environment".

Morgan Stanley expects a sharp contraction in residential demand will result in a significant softening of demand and retains its Underweight rating. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $1.24 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLD as Hold (3) -

On reviewing the FY23 results for Boral, Ord Minnett transfers coverage to another analyst and upgrades its target by 22% to $4.40. The upgrade reflects a more optimistic view of the construction cycle.

The broker assesses a significant medium-term construction downturn appears unlikely, and for Boral particularly given its exposure to the resilient non-residential and infrastructure markets.

The broker is also more optimistic when assessing the company's cost control and pricing efforts. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If BLD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BLD as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes Boral's guidance is conservative at $270-300m in EBIT. Pricing is gaining traction, although the broker notes costs are "relentless" and this remains a threat to continued margin recovery.

Despite concerns surrounding a slowing Australian outlook, the business surprised to the upside in FY23 yet, while UBS is incrementally more positive, a softer FY25 is envisaged given a softening in residential work. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $4.95 from $4.39.

Target price is $4.95 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.21
If BLD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.32, suggesting downside of -12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

In advance of FY23 results due on August 14, Morgans raises its target for Carsales to $24.60 from $24.40 on a valuation roll forward. The Hold rating is maintained.

The analyst likes the company’s medium-term growth potential due to the strong recovery in domestic inventory levels as well as the opportunities to expand its offering in international markets.

Ongoing momentum is expected in Korea, along with growth for Trader Interactive in the US and webmotors in Brazil.

Morgans anticipates yield will be a key driver of growth underpinning the performance in FY24.

Target price is $24.60 Current Price is $24.68 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.12, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COH as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley is expecting underlying net profit to rise by 16% on the previous corresponding period to $321m, when Cochlear reports FY23 results on August 15. Consensus is expecting $302m.

The broker maintains its Equal-weight rating and $222 target. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $222.00 Current Price is $235.24 Difference: minus $13.24 (current price is over target).
If COH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $224.77, suggesting downside of -3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CRN as Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold (2) -

First half results were largely in line with Ord Minnett's expectations although the dividend was significantly softer.

The broker considers the sell-off in Coronado Global Resources overdone given there is reduced risk in terms of delivery and an apparent willingness to abandon recent M&A opportunities that proved less attractive.

The broker also revises assumptions for fixed-price contracts in the US and adjusts pricing realisations to reflect historical results.  Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $1.70 from $1.60.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.56 Difference: $0.145
If CRN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CTT as Buy (1) -

FY23 results from Cettire beat Bell Potter's estimates and the first quarter of FY24 has commenced strongly with July sales revenue up 120%. As a result, the broker factors in strong growth in the key contributing US market and raises revenue forecasts for FY24-25.

No full year EBITDA margin guidance was provided, yet FY23 levels are considered indicative and Bell Potter believes the business will continue to outperform its peer group consisting of global luxury retailers and local e-commerce operators, given its 0.5% share in a large and growing market.

Buy rating retained. Target rise to $4.00 from $3.90.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.86
If CTT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi observes recent peer results are indicating sales growth is slowing globally and inflationary pressures may persist for longer in some markets.

Potential downside risks to estimates exist in FY24 for Domino's Pizza Enterprises, the broker adds, and a Sell rating is maintained. Target is $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $51.19 Difference: minus $11.19 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.17, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Sell (5) -

UBS reviews its modelling ahead of the FY23 result and forecasts underlying net profit of $129.7m with EBIT of $207.3m.

The broker will be looking for the reiteration of a 3-5 year growth outlook for same-store sales of 3-6%, although estimates are skewed to the low end of that range because of concerns about the cyclically of delivery and the extent of market share Domino's Pizza Enterprises has lost.

Sell rating and $40 target maintained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $51.19 Difference: minus $11.19 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $53.17, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI's profit matched pre-reported numbers at the low end of the guidance range. Much of the focus was on FY24 outlook, Macquarie notes, which is described by the company as a transition year.

Downer is targeting continued margin improvement supported by better than expected progress on headcount reduction. However this is in context of still challenging external conditions -- labour costs and availability -- although this is stabilising.

The broker now forecasts 16% profit growth in FY24 versus prior 25% growth, driven by non-recurrence of first half provisions/weather impacts and cost out benefits, partly offset by Transport project sale dilution and defence headwinds.

Neutral retained, target falls to $4.15 from $4.40.

Target price is $4.15 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.05
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes the market reaction was negative to the FY23 results, as underlying net profit declined -22% albeit in line with recent guidance.

Going forward, the broker expects Downer EDI will make solid progress on both revenue and margin improvement with strong public-sector demand driving compound annual EBITDA growth of 10% by FY28.

That said, FY24 will still be a year when the business addresses areas of underperformance. Accumulate rating maintained. Target is $5.60.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $1.5
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Downer EDI's FY23 results were pre-announced and the focus is on the FY24 outlook. No formal earnings guidance was provided although the company expects continued improvement in margins.

UBS highlights the improvement in EBITA margins in the second half, supported by a recovery in road services volumes, amid better weather, as well as a strong performance in long-term rail maintenance contract.

The company has reiterated both its FY25 margin restoration target of more than 4.5% and its -$100m cost reduction target. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $4.65.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.4
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.75, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DXI as Add (1) -

FY23 results for Dexus Industria REIT were in line with guidance. FY24 guidance is for funds from operations (FFO) of 17.1cpu and dividend of 16.4cpu.

Property income rose on the back of contracted rental income growth of 4.9% and a full period contribution from Jandakot Airport, explains Morgans, helping offset higher interest costs and the impact of asset sales.

Management will continue to recycle capital into the development pipeline, notes the analyst.

Further falls in asset values are expected by the broker in FY24 and the target falls to $3.19 from $3.30. Add.

Target price is $3.19 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.46
If DXI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IFM as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter reviews forecasts for Infomedia ahead of the FY23 result, given the share price is now above its prior target, now raised to  $1.75 from $1.60.

The broker makes no change to forecasts and expects the business will at least meet exit recurring revenue guidance of $129-132m.

Cost initiatives are also expected to drive a better second half result and this should flow through to FY24. Hold maintained.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.065
If IFM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.73, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Underperform (5) -

Ahead of JB Hi-Fi's result next week, Macquarie has revised earnings forecasts downward on softer retail trade data in the June quarter.

But despite this, target rises to $45.00 from $41.60 given rising PE multiples for global peers.

Underperform retained.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $46.08 Difference: minus $1.08 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $44.07, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MMS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley estimates McMillan Shakespeare will receive around $19m for the sale of its Aggregation business, and expects further details at FY23 results on August 23. The company also intends to divest its UK business.

The broker explains the earnings impacts of the Aggregation sale is minor and the Overweight rating and $20.60 target are maintained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $20.60 Current Price is $19.57 Difference: $1.03
If MMS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.92, suggesting downside of -8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NCK as Neutral (3) -

Nick Scali's FY23 profit beat consensus by some 4%, Citi analysts report upon initial glance. The broker's forecast has been beaten by 7%.

To add to the positive assessment: Citi analysts point out the 'beat' would have been larger if it were not for -$4m in additional logistic costs the company sees as one-offs.

No guidance was provided and the analysts note orders fell -16% in H2, and the decline has continued into July. While the company has surprised with a 35c dividend, the analysts would prefer it pays down its debt quicker.

Also, Citi highlights market consensus is already anticipating a -37% decline in net profits in FY24. Neutral. Target $9.96.

Target price is $9.96 Current Price is $10.70 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NCM as Accumulate (2) -

Newcrest Mining today released FY23 results with an underlying profit of $778m, ahead of the consensus forecast for $702m. The final dividend was 55cps compared to the 43.9cps expected by consensus.

In a first impression of the results, Ord Minnett notes Cadia delivered a strong operating and financial performance while Lihir produced the opposite, driven by lower feed grade following extreme rainfall.

Profit was down -$94m on the previous corresponding period, observes the broker, largely due to a lower realised copper price, higher depreciation and higher operating costs. Inflationary pressures were in line with the analyst's forecast.

There was also a decrease in Newcrest’s share of profits from its associates and an increase in finance costs. However, overall profit impacts were mitigated by a lower Australian dollar, the addition of Brucejack (Canada) and greater (low-cost) production at Cadia.

Management provided FY24 production guidance for gold and copper in the ranges of 2,000-2,300koz and 120-140kt, respectively. All-in sustaining costs are expected in the range of $2,200-2,600.

Target 33. Accumulate.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $25.95 Difference: $7.05
If NCM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.78, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NUF as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter believes the widespread trends in the second quarter of 2023 warrant a review of the agricultural chemical segment. High double-digit declines in agricultural chemical revenues have been identified amid softer volumes, while pricing trends remain "fairly resilient".

Inventory destocking, amid improved product availability and higher funding costs, has been the issue and is expected to continue into the third quarter.

From Nufarm's perspective the largest consistent sector underperformance has occurred in North America. Bell Potter reduces EBITDA estimates for FY23 by -9% and by -2% for FY24. Target is reduced to $7.00 from $7.25 and a Buy rating is maintained.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.24 Difference: $1.76
If NUF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting upside of 35.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QBE as Buy (1) -

On further assessment Citi trims earnings forecasts for QBE Insurance, given a higher-than-expected tax rate in the first half. As recent premium increases earn through, the broker retains a view that margins will expand.

Consequently, the stock is considered inexpensive and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is lifted to $17.90 from $17.30 on FX changes.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $2.49
If QBE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

In a brief update following the result release from QBE Insurance, Macquarie notes ordinary dividends below the guidance range disappointed, and imply a significant step-change in the second half.

FY23 combined operating ratio guidance of 94.5% was unchanged. The broker now includes further crop deterioration in the second half.

QBE is trading at a 12.6% two-year forward premium to weighted international peers post the result, compared with a -2.1% long-term discount.

Target falls to $16.80 from $16.90, Outperform retained.

Target price is $16.80 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $1.39
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

The QBE Insurance 1H combined operating ratio (COR) of 98.8%, the ratio of claims paid and operating expenses to the total earned premium, beat Morgan Stanley's forecast for 99.1%.

Pricing accelerated in all regions in the 1H and remains strong and inflation is slowing, observes the analyst, while guidance suggests to the broker a 2H reported COR of circa 92%, a substantial improvement.

The target rises to $18.30 from $18.20. Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

The interim dividend of 14cps was a -22% miss versus the broker's forecast.

Target price is $18.30 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $2.89
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Hold (3) -

Despite the large turnaround in net profit in the first half of 2023, Ord Minnett found the result from QBE Insurance underwhelming as insurance operating profit fell -75% to US$95m, with the expected rise in investment income on shareholder and policyholder funds "saving the day".

The broker asserts investment income should not be thought of as a free kick, given the competitive industry with premium rate pricing that ultimately incorporates an expectation on investment income, and believes the market is over estimating long-term profitability.

Ord Minnett has a Hold rating, increasing the target to $13.50 from $13.00.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: minus $1.91 (current price is over target).
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

First half earnings missed estimates yet UBS dismisses this as a volatile period amid "noisy" items. An improvement in earnings is expected in the second half and into 2024 amid ongoing improvement in underlying margins.

The payout was "surprisingly reduced" yet the broker is confident in the turnaround story and retains a Buy rating. The QBE Insurance North American division remains loss-making and management continues to work on an action plan across the key segments of crop, specialty and commercial.

UBS notes commercial is the main problem area and part of the issue is the middle market where greater scale is required to cover a large fixed cost base. Target is raised to $19.00 from $18.50.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.41 Difference: $3.59
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.93, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates REA as Hold (3) -

In advance of FY23 results due today, Morgans lowers its 2H listings volumes assumption for REA Group, which decreases its Australia residential revenue forecast for FY23. 

The broker also lowers its settlement volumes forecast for the 2H within Financial Services though leaves the cost base largely unchanged.

Overall, FY23F-FY25 EPS forecasts are lowered by around -1%, yet Morgans' price target rises to $155 from $145 on a valuation roll-forward. 

The broker anticipates yield will be a key driver of growth underpinning the performance in FY24. Hold.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $158.62 Difference: minus $3.62 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $137.77, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RMD as Buy (1) -

Despite acknowledging "a lot of uncertainty", UBS estimates ResMed's top-line exposure to a reduced need for OSA devices because of increased use of weight loss drugs is around a potential -18.5%.

This assumes there is no funding for obesity drugs in US government-sponsored programs, making affordability a continuing problem.

Still, OSA is a deeply underpenetrated market and the broker calculates if US diagnosis rates of moderate-severe OSA rose to just 38% from 35%, such top-line effects could be cancelled out.

Following the recent sell-off, UBS argues the shares are now priced as though ResMed has nil ability to respond to potential threats.

What would worry the broker more is if there were a substantial widening of access to weight loss drugs, through Medicare funding and/or other forms of government subsidies.

Plus: it's now up to management at ResMed to adapt. Buy rating and US$265 target retained.

Current Price is $27.31. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $36.57, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SEK as Add (1) -

Morgans is not anticipating too many surprises on August 15, when Seek delivers FY23 results given profit guidance was reaffirmed at the April investor day.

The broker increases its target to $30.20 from $28.40 on a valuation roll forward, which is partly offset by increased interest expense forecasts for FY24 and FY25.

Morgans anticipates yield will be a key driver of growth underpinning the performance in FY24. Add.

Target price is $30.20 Current Price is $25.39 Difference: $4.81
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.30, suggesting upside of 6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Sell (5) -

On analysing Nielsen US wine sales data, Citi finds the recent perceived turnaround in Treasury Wine Estates' 19 Crimes seen in the four weeks to July 15 was a false start, as sales growth slowed abruptly during the subsequent two weeks.

Discounting is attributed to driving the former turn up in sales volumes and the broker concludes, both from this latest data update and its recent survey, that price is the biggest driver for purchasing wine in the US. Sell rating and $10.25 target.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $11.78 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.75, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes fears of a lengthy shutdown at Woodside Energy's North West Shelf and Wheatstone operations are overstated. A deal that avoids or contains a strike looks achievable.

Based on 2022 enterprise bargaining agreement comparables, which improved worker benefits, the broker expects Woodside's net likely impact will be -0.1-0.2% of annual profit.

Striking a deal will add further opex pressure, Macquarie notes, but the impact is far less material for investors than the macro outlook.

Accounting for the Scarborough sell-down, target rises to $35 from $33. Neutral retained.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $39.00 Difference: minus $4 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $36.92, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes media reports of potential industrial action at Woodside Energy's North West Shelf project, while workers at 13%-owned Wheatsone may also take action.

The broker believes a one-month shut-down would put 2023 production guidance of 180-190MMboe at risk, though short-term mitigation could arise via the company's production portfolio, storage, and third party purchases.

The Overweight rating and $40 target are maintained. Industry View is Attractive. 

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $39.00 Difference: $1
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.92, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Citi suspects any protracted LNG production disruptions caused by industrial action at the North West Shelf could cause a spike in NEWC6000 thermal coal.

On an initial analysis, the broker points out there is a risk that Asian spot LNG prices spike to US$20/mmbtu if there are protracted disruptions to WA LNG production, as this represents around 10% of world supply of traded LNG.

Were this to occur, and at this stage it is far from clear if there will be an impact, the broker would expect NEWC6000 thermal coal to trade in a range of US$220-260/t given equivalent energy pricing and price regression.

Buy rating and $7.80 target are maintained for Whitehaven Coal.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.45 Difference: $0.35
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.64, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources