Australian Broker Call
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December 23, 2025
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:00 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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AZJ AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $3.58
Citi rates AZJ as Neutral (3) -
Aurizon Holdings has announced a revised Access Undertaking for the Central Queensland Coal Network, UT5-plus (an amended version of UT5, setting the regulated access and pricing framework for the network.)
Aurizon estimates UT5-plus will lift average annual revenue by around $45m versus UT5, Citi notes.
The uplift reflects earlier depreciation and return on capital plus a higher WACC from updated rate and credit assumptions.
Implementation is not until 1H2027, which adds yield curve risk, and the broker comments a new throughput payment only partly offsets the WACC uplift and adds volume risk.
Neutral rating and $3.45 target retained.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AZJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.25, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 23.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.3, implying annual growth of 43.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 26.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MND MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED
Energy Sector Contracting
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Overnight Price: $27.20
Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -
Citi expects FY26 to be a year marked by an acceleration of project win momentum, with Monadelphous Group's bid win rate to remain high.
Opportunities in the iron ore sector continue to form a robust base for the group, the analyst explains, with growth coming from a larger range of commodities.
The broker estimates a work in hand balance around $2bn, which represents 74% of next twelve months revenue, and forecasts 2H26 revenue of $2,699m. This excludes smaller work, which could result in revenue coverage above 74%.
Buy. Target price $28.75.
Target price is $28.75 Current Price is $27.20 Difference: $1.55
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 91.50 cents and EPS of 100.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.9, implying annual growth of 24.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 101.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.2, implying annual growth of 2.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $23.25
Citi rates NCK as Buy (1) -
Nick Scali announced upgraded 1H26 net profit after tax guidance to $37m-$39m from $33m-$35m, which sits above consensus by 9.5%, according to Citi.
The upgrade came from higher A&NZ revenue guidance, lifted to 10%-12% from 7%-9%, which is not a shock to the analyst who previously pointed to conservative 1H26 revenue guidance.
No mention was made of losses from the UK business, which infers to the broker there has been no change to the improving UK sales trend.
The stock remains Buy rated with a $28.85 target price.
Target price is $28.85 Current Price is $23.25 Difference: $5.6
If NCK meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.76, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY26:
Citi forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.30 cents and EPS of 86.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 90.9, implying annual growth of 34.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY27:
Citi forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 82.40 cents and EPS of 109.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.1, implying annual growth of 20.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AZJ | Aurizon Holdings | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $3.58 |
| MND | Monadelphous Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $27.20 |
| NCK | Nick Scali | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $23.25 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 1 |
Tuesday 23 December 2025
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