Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates 3DA as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners observes Amaero International has attained a $38m US Export-Import Bank loan to fund equipment purchases under the Make More in America initiative.

The broker highlights the loan represents a "validation milestone" and is the first to support advanced materials.

Terms of the funding include covering 75% of equipment costs of US$28.5m between FY24 and FY26, with an interest rate of approximately 6.95%. The loan is contingent upon a capital raising before the initial drawdown in 2H25.

The analyst also notes expected offtake agreement announcements for ADDMAN soon, with powder samples already in the market.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy, High-Risk rating on Amaero International with a target price of $0.60.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.285
If 3DA meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Post the 2Q25 production report for Alkane Resources, Bell Potter expects FY25 gold production to be weighted towards 2H25.

The broker notes gold sales of 66.6koz were below expectations and down compared to 1Q25. The average gold price was $4,067/oz, with a higher all-in-sustaining cost of $3,053/oz.

Bell Potter forecasts FY25 production at the lower end of guidance and costs at the upper end. Changes to forex assumptions include downgrades to AUD:USD forecasts.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 13% for FY25 and 25% for FY26.

Target price remains at $1.25, and the Buy rating is retained.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.77
If ALK meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

Bellevue Gold reported December quarter gold sales of 26.2koz, below UBS's expectations of 38.5koz, due to weaker production from low head grades, the analyst explains.

Management has downgraded FY25 guidance to 150-165koz, resulting in a -60% decline in the broker's FY25 earnings forecast.

The target price is reduced to $1.55 from $1.70. The Buy rating is retained as the share price has already reacted to the update, and UBS remains positive on FY26, with expected production of over 200koz per annum.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.485
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

BHP Group is due to report its 2Q25 production results on January 21, and Macquarie expects the company to announce copper production below expectations by -4% due to power outages at Olympic Dam.

The analyst also anticipates iron ore production to be in line with consensus expectations at 72.6mt, with softer volumes from wet weather impacts in December. Thermal coal is forecast to be below consensus by -19% due to coal washing issues.

On the back of the anticipated mixed results, Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -1% for FY25 and -2% for FY26.

BHP Group and South32 ((S32)) remain the preferred stocks among major miners. BHP Group retains an Outperform rating with a $42 target price.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $39.59 Difference: $2.41
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.97, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOE as Buy (1) -

UBS previews the upcoming December quarter result from Boss Energy and will be seeking updates on cost and capex guidance for Honeymoon in FY25.

The analyst also anticipates an update on the commissioning of column 3 and the remaining three columns, which are forecast to come online over 2025.

UBS retains the FY25 production estimate at 0.79mlb versus guidance of 0.85mlb. The cost assumption is revised to include an additional -$20m in cost of goods sold for fixed costs at Honeymoon.

The target price remains $3.40, and the Buy rating is retained. The company holds $65m in cash and uranium inventory of around $145m, placing the balance sheet in a strong position, the analyst surmises.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.79
If BOE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 39.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett adjusts earnings forecasts for Brambles due to forex assumption changes, the inclusion of the share buyback, and the latest industry data.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3% in FY25 and -7% in FY26. Brambles reports in US dollars.

In constant currency terms, earnings before interest and tax are expected to rise 10%, compared to management's guidance for FY25 of 8%-11%.

The broker believes the stock is trading on an attractive valuation, with fund managers generally underweight on the company.

The target price rises to $21 from $20.60. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $19.28 Difference: $1.72
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $19.08, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCX as Buy (1) -

Citi expresses concern about City Chic Collective's ability to meet its FY25 guidance following the company's 1H25 update.

The analyst notes that unaudited 1H25 revenue and earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation were less than 50% of management's lower end of guidance, despite 1H typically being the seasonally stronger period.

To achieve current guidance, City Chic would need to increase sales by 20% in 2H25, which Citi considers challenging given the consumer backdrop.

The broker believes the company remains in a turnaround phase, with a reduced inventory position compared to last year, which should limit promotional activity in 2H25.

Buy, High Risk rating and target price of 25c retained.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.154
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 160% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.16, suggesting upside of 45.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suggests industry metrics point to an inflection for office real estate in late 2024, with 2025 shaping up to be a more robust year for the sector.

The broker explains the optimal exposure to the turnaround is via investment managers rather than traditional office landlords, as the turnaround is first evident in valuations, with cash earnings from office REITs likely to lag by another 12-18 months.

Morgan Stanley has a preference for Charter Hall, with 39% of assets under management exposed to office, and Centuria Capital ((CNI)) in the small-cap space.

Overweight rating. Target price $18.56. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $18.56 Current Price is $14.25 Difference: $4.31
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.74, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CNI as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley suggests industry metrics point to an inflection for office real estate in late 2024, with 2025 shaping up to be a more robust year for the sector.

The broker explains the optimal exposure to the turnaround is via investment managers rather than traditional office landlords, as the turnaround is first evident in valuations, with cash earnings from office REITs likely to lag by another 12-18 months.

Morgan Stanley has a preference for Charter Hall ((CHC)), with 39% of assets under management exposed to office, and Centuria Capital  in the small-cap space.

Centuria Capital's target price remains at $2.45 Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.68
If CNI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COF as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suggests industry metrics point to an inflection for office real estate in late 2024, with 2025 shaping up to be a more robust year for the sector.

The broker explains the optimal exposure to the turnaround is via investment managers rather than traditional office landlords, as the turnaround is first evident in valuations, with cash earnings from office REITs likely to lag by another 12-18 months.

Morgan Stanley has a preference for Charter Hall ((CHC)), with 39% of assets under management exposed to office, and Centuria Capital ((CNI)) in the small-cap space.

Underweight rating for Centuria Office REIT. Target price slips to $1.23 from $1.35. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $1.23 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: $0.11
If COF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.24, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley suggests industry metrics point to an inflection for office real estate in late 2024, with 2025 shaping up to be a more robust year for the sector.

The broker explains the optimal exposure to the turnaround is via investment managers rather than traditional office landlords, as the turnaround is first evident in valuations, with cash earnings from office REITs likely to lag by another 12-18 months.

Morgan Stanley has a preference for Charter Hall ((CHC)), with 39% of assets under management exposed to office, and Centuria Capital ((CNI)) in the small-cap space.

Underweight rating is retained on Dexus. Target price slips to $7.30 from $8.25. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.55 Difference: $0.75
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes GenusPlus Group has announced two new major contracts since December 20.

The company has secured approximately $590m of new power-based contracts in FY24 and around $480m in FY25 to date, the analyst states.

Current revenue forecasts are 90% accounted for by existing contracts, giving Bell Potter confidence in the 23% forecast compound average EPS growth outlook, with incremental new contract wins likely to support earnings upgrades.

The target price remains at $3.10 with a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.62 Difference: $0.48
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GPT as Buy (1) -

2025 is viewed as an "inflection" year by Citi for Australian real estate stocks, with expectations of an interest rate cut in May.

The broker believes the outlook remains robust for high-growth sectors like data centres, self-storage, retail, and land lease. Falling financing costs are also seen as a positive for the industry.

A slower recovery in the domestic office market is anticipated due to higher vacancy rates and ongoing tenant incentives.

Citi's analyst prefers Goodman Group ((GMG)), National Storage ((NSR)), Ingenia Communities ((INA)), Stockland ((SGP)), Scentre Group ((SGC)), and GPT Group.

The target price on GPT rises to $5 from $4.90. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $0.63
If GPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.29, suggesting upside of 18.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

Citi highlights the platform industry recorded the second-highest quarterly net flows for the September 2024 quarter in the last ten years.

The strength is attributed to robust equity markets boosting incremental fund inflows and slowing headwinds from losing market share to industry funds.

Citi reiterates the Neutral rating on Hub24, with the target price declining by -2% to $73.80 to reflect slight earnings downgrades due to more adverse equity market movements in December.

Target price is $73.80 Current Price is $67.85 Difference: $5.95
If HUB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $64.92, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates LM8 as Buy (1) -

Lunnon Metals has initiated drilling at the Guiding Star prospect, part of its Kambalda Gold and Nickel Project, notes Shaw and Partners.

Results from Guiding Star show potential for stacked high-grade gold structures.

The analyst believes Lunnon Metals benefits from a strategic location near substantial gold fields and the Lefroy Gold Plant, owned by its shareholder Gold Fields has spare capacity for processing. This positions Lunnon to leverage the high gold price while exploring tier 1 deposits.

Lunnon had $21.1m cash at the end of September, which the broker suggests is supporting ongoing developments. Shaw and Partners maintains its Buy, High Risk rating.

The 60c target remains unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.39
If LM8 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Hold (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths is due to report 2Q25 results on January 17, and Bell Potter is expecting NdPr production of 1,411t, which includes the shutdown at the end of 2024.

The analyst will be seeking comments on the ramp-up in production guidance, the impact of weaker rare earth prices, progress at Kalgoorlie, and an update on the US expansion and permitting.

Bell Potter lowers EPS forecasts by -4% for FY25 and -2% for FY26.

Hold rating retained. The target price falls to $7.10 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $7.10 Difference: $0
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting downside of -6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Mineral Resources is due to report 2Q25 production results on January 29.

Macquarie anticipates the company's results will be in line for iron ore, with a decline of -2% as Onslow ramps up at 7.1mt. Lithium is also expected to meet expectations at 147kt.

The analyst lowers EPS forecast for FY25 by -75% due to higher lithium and iron ore costs. The FY26 EPS forecast declines by less than -1%.

Changes to working capital assumptions and cash balances result in a lower target price of $37, down -3%.

Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $37.00 Current Price is $35.08 Difference: $1.92
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.21, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Citi highlights the platform industry recorded the second-highest quarterly net flows for the September 2024 quarter in the last ten years.

The strength is attributed to robust equity markets boosting incremental fund inflows and slowing headwinds from losing market share to industry funds.

Citi downgrades Netwealth Group to Sell from Neutral due to its high valuation and expectations of downside risk to earnings. The analyst's earnings before depreciation and amortisation forecasts are below consensus by -2% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Target price lifts to $28.90 from $27 due to a roll forward of the valuation.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $27.36 Difference: $1.54
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.03, suggesting downside of -0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

UBS previews the upcoming December quarter results for Paladin Energy and highlights, with the approval of the Fission Energy acquisition, investors will be focused on the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich.

The analyst expects the market to concentrate on whether the water issues in 1H25, which resulted in a two-week plant shutdown, will persist into 2H25. The shutdown is forecast to reduce production in 2Q25 by -9% on the previous quarter to 580klb.

Assuming the water problems have been resolved, UBS forecasts FY25 production of around 3mlbs, with the mine restart planned for July 2025.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $9.90 target price.

Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $1.72
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.04, suggesting upside of 42.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Citi makes two observations from the 1H25 earnings downgrade from Premier Investments. The company is experiencing ongoing cost challenges that are harder to offset, and Peter Alexander's pace of growth might be in question.

The first issue can be overcome, but the analyst believes the second point directly challenges the outlook for earnings growth and the valuation multiple applied to the stock.

Citi lowers earnings forecasts by -12% to -14% and reduces the target price to $30 from $36.

Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.78 Difference: $2.22
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Overweight (1) -

Despite the lower 1H25 guidance update from Premier Investments, Morgan Stanley believes the issues highlighted by the company are more "cyclical" than "structural."

Premier's 1H25 sales guidance came in below consensus by -3%, with retail earnings below market expectations by -20%. Details were scant, the analyst notes, and infers the downgrade was due to increased promotions and lower gross margins to boost demand.

Morgan Stanley continues to favour the proposed deal with Myer Holdings ((MYR)), on which shareholders will vote on January 23. The new company is expected to be higher quality with an improved growth story, including 100% ownership of Peter Alexander and Smiggle.

The analyst anticipates the current conglomerate multiple ascribed to Premier will reduce as the corporate structure is simplified.

Morgan Stanley lowers EPS forecasts by -18.4% for FY25 and -13.8% for FY26.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price decreases to $37.50 from $39.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $37.50 Current Price is $27.78 Difference: $9.72
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Neutral (3) -

Premier Investments announced its 1H25 trading update with global sales of $855m-$865m and underlying earnings before interest and tax of $160m-$165m, representing a decline of -2.2% and -20.7%, respectively, compared to 1H24, UBS notes.

The company indicated inventory remains as expected, with Australian sales faltering. The analyst highlights weakness overseas in New Zealand across all brands and softer Smiggle sales internationally.

UBS downgrades EPS forecasts by -17.7% and -12.4% for FY25 and FY26, respectively.

The target price is lowered to $30 from $31. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.78 Difference: $2.22
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.14, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QBE as Buy (1) -

The UBS insurance team estimates the catastrophic LA wildfires represent insured losses exceeding -US$20bn, double the circa -US$10bn in industry losses from the 2018 Camp fires (Butte County, Northern California).

QBE Insurance has a relatively low market share across asset classes in California, UBS states, and the analyst estimates the company's potential losses are around 5% of its FY25 forecast CAT allowance which is very manageable.

The broker makes no changes to earnings forecasts and retains a Buy rating with a $23 target price.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.09 Difference: $3.91
If QBE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.95, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto is due to report 4Q 2024 production on January 16, with Macquarie expecting the company to generate better-than-expected results for bauxite and lower-than-anticipated results for iron ore, compared to consensus by -2%.

The analyst forecasts 2024 bauxite production of 58mt, which is 4% above guidance.

Macquarie lowers the 2024 earnings forecast by -8% due to higher aluminium costs and by -1% for 2025.

No change to the Neutral rating and $120 target price.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $118.79 Difference: $1.21
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Overweight (1) -

Looking to Rio Tinto's 4Q 2024 results to be announced on January 16, Morgan Stanley is not expecting many surprises following the company's Investor Day.

The broker's dividend forecast sits 5% above consensus, and market expectations on iron ore costs appear "ambitious," the analyst states.

Rio Tinto remains a "relative" stock pick among the diversified miners for the broker, with an attractive valuation and strong growth prospects.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and a $136 target. Industry view: In-Liine.

Target price is $136.00 Current Price is $118.79 Difference: $17.21
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $129.00, suggesting upside of 7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 is due to report quarterly production for 4Q 2024 on January 20, and Macquarie expects copper results to meet expectations, with a rise of 1%.

Compared to consensus, the analyst highlights the aluminium forecast sits below by -8% due to disruptions at Mozal, and manganese is below by -18%.

The analyst has not included metallurgical coal production for the quarter due to the sale of Illawarra Met Coal on August 29, 2024.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -8% for FY25. The target price remains unchanged at $4.40 with an Outperform rating.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $1.03
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.11, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

St. Barbara reported 2Q25 production, which came in below Macquarie and consensus estimates by -44%. Management retained FY25 production guidance at 65-70koz but emphasised it would be at the "lower end."

The broker is now forecasting FY25 production of 60koz, down from 68koz previously. Cash and bullion came in lower than expected by -$33m.

St. Barbara is also disputing the PNG government's claim the company owes taxes and penalties of $210m.

Accounting for the weaker production and higher all-in-sustaining costs for FY25, the analyst's earnings forecast moves to a loss in FY25 from a profit, and the estimated loss for FY26 increases by 31%.

The target price is cut to 39c. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.14
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

2025 is viewed as an "inflection" year by Citi for Australian real estate stocks, with expectations of an interest rate cut in May.

The broker believes the outlook remains robust for high-growth sectors like data centres, self-storage, retail, and land lease. Falling financing costs are also seen as a positive for the industry.

A slower recovery in the domestic office market is anticipated due to higher vacancy rates and ongoing tenant incentives.

Citi's analyst prefers Goodman Group ((GMG)), National Storage ((NSR)), Ingenia Communities ((INA)), Stockland ((SGP)), Scentre Group, and GPT Group ((GPT)).

Scentre Group is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target price rises to $3.91 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $3.52 Difference: $0.39
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.87, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley considers the NSW toll road renegotiations for Transurban Group.

The expected concession changes are anticipated to be neutral for the group's net present value, but the broker highlights potential downside risks to the share price due to a lower free cash flow outlook over FY26-FY28.

Although an agreement was expected in 2024, the parties have exchanged confidential proposals, and the potential price relief to motorists would take six to twelve months to implement.

Morgan Stanley believes the concession amendments may impact free cash flow, with the dividend payout policy at 90%-100% of free cash flow. Investor feedback suggests the market expects the agreement to be "benign."

Target price is $13.33. Equal Weight. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $13.33 Current Price is $13.58 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.52, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources