Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALK as Buy (1) -

Alkane Resources' FY22 marked a "cracking year" on assessment by Ord Minnett. Both gold output and cost guidance proved better-than-expected (and better-than-guided).

Alas, the broker's latest Boda deep dive analysis revealed grades might have disappointed, for now, but the broker retains a positive view longer term.

Price target lowered by -20% to $1.20. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.5
If ALK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

In a further review of FY22 results for Altium, Citi highlights the 10% increase in average revenue per user (ARPU) in the Board & Systems segment. It's estimated around 30% of the increase came from the shift to Term-based licenses (recurring revenue) from Perpetual.

The remaining 70% was due to price increases and the uptake of Pro and Enterprise licenses, explains the analyst. The target price rises to $35.40 from $33.50 on increased confidence management's US$500m revenue target by FY26 will be met.

While the shift to term-based licenses partly reduces the risk from slowing demand, the broker has concerns the economic backdrop may see new license sales slow, and the Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $35.40 Current Price is $35.74 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $33.95, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ANZ as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

Macquarie prefers ANZ Bank to Westpac within the value category and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral following ongoing
share-price weakness. Target rises to $24.00 from $23.50.

Target price is $24.00 Current Price is $22.59 Difference: $1.41
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ASX as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees potential downside risk for ASX as August statistics show cash market value was down -7% year-on-year compared to the broker's forecast.

More positively, volume for rate futures rose by 18% year-on-year, driven by 30 day Bank Bills and 3-year Bonds.

The Equal-weight rating and $80.20 target are unchanged. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $80.20 Current Price is $75.23 Difference: $4.97
If ASX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ASX as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

According to ASX's monthly trading update, derivatives volumes are finally starting to pick up, exclaims Ord Minnett, but then market value traded and capital raisings were weak versus the same period last year.

Post a negative share price response, coupled with the fact that infrastructure-alike type of earnings (the broker's choice of words) will be sought after if/when rough times announce themselves, Ord Minnett has decided to upgrade to Hold from Lighten.

Long-term, the broker does not denounce the strong outlook for the ASX, but short-term there are challenges, also because of the cycling of tough comparables.

Target $80. Only minimal adjustments have been made to forecasts.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $75.23 Difference: $4.77
If ASX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $80.93, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AWC as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Due to market surpluses, Macquarie downgrades its 2022-24 alumina price forecasts by -9-12% and its aluminium price forecasts by -12-24%.

This drives cuts in 2022-25 earnings forecasts for Alumina Ltd of -42-54% and a target price cut to $1.10 from $1.40.

Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.68, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BEN as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

The broker prefers prefer Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Bank of Queensland within the regionals, and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target falls to $9.00 from $9.25.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.58 Difference: $0.42
If BEN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 18.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has taken a more cautionary short-term outlook on commodities, forecasting lower near-term prices for copper and iron ore. This has driven the broker to lower its earnings forecasts for BHP Group -13% and -2% in FY23 and FY24 respectively. 

The broker expects acquisition to remain a focus for BHP Group, noting the company seems increasingly focused on opportunity to create or expand a basin play, alongside its focus on future facing minerals. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $36.00 from $39.00.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $37.27 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $39.91, suggesting upside of 9.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOQ as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

The broker prefers prefer Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Bank of Queensland within the regionals, and downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $7.00 from $8.00.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $6.87 Difference: $0.13
If BOQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 31.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

In the wake of the result season, Macquarie notes the macro backdrop remains challenging, and the automotive market is no exception.

The broker continues to highlight Carsales remains resilient in a softer automotive market as dealers would need to increase listings and depth takeup to increase turnover.

Macquarie's forecasts capture only limited success from new product offerings, but it sees them as a key source of potential earnings upside in the term.

With valuation undemanding, the broker upgrades to Outperform form Neutral. Target unchanged at $24.40.

Target price is $24.40 Current Price is $21.65 Difference: $2.75
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.83, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform (1) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

CommBank remains expensive at current levels, the broker suggests, but with no obvious catalyst for underperformance and likely near-term upside risk to earnings, rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target rises to $90.50 from $81.00.

Target price is $90.50 Current Price is $96.11 Difference: minus $5.61 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $89.09, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHN as Outperform (1) -

The results of a seismic survey are encouraging for Chalice Mining, Macquarie suggests, and go some way to explaining the lack of wider higher-grade intersections from the first seventeen holes drilled at Hartog.

Work on the scoping study is progressing however tightness in the labour market has resulted in delays in securing the contractors to complete some of the technical work. As a result, Chalice now expects the scoping study to be complete by the end of 2022.

Outperform and $7.50 target retained.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $3.13
If CHN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has reduced met coal price forecasts -38% for the second half of 2022, and -3% for 2023, but does expect a gradual price recovery amid the ongoing met-to-thermal transition. For Coronado Global Resources, this drove earnings forecast decreases of -4% and -9% in 2022 and 2023. 

The broker notes timing of the coal transition remains uncertain, but highlights Coronado Global Resources' US operations high volume met coal as a suitable replacement in the thermal market, and could provide the company price negotiation leverage.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.30 from $2.60.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.57
If CRN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 42.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates FMG as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has taken a more cautionary short-term outlook on commodities, forecasting lower near-term prices for copper and iron ore. While the broker estimates Fortescue Metals' price realisation has recently improved to 86%, it sees little chance of super profits while the China property sector remains weak and assumes price realisation of 83% in FY23.

The broker highlights Fortescue Future Industries has so far offered little in the way of a business case of competitive advantage, and doubts the division will deliver revenue before 2025. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $15.70 from $17.00.

Target price is $15.70 Current Price is $16.44 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.50, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates GNC as Outperform (1) -

Given increasing certainty as to production volumes in the coming years, and an earnings outlook largely not tied to global growth risks, Credit Suisse finds GrainCorp a compelling opportunity for investors.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently revised its winter crop forecast 9%, supporting Credit Suisse in lifting its grain intake forecast 0.7 tonnes in FY23. The broker notes exports are at capacity for FY23 on previous production assumptions, exports increase in FY24 to accommodate additional capacity.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.28 from $9.14.

Target price is $9.28 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $1.18
If GNC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GNC as Neutral (3) -

In positive news for GrainCorp, the estimate for the  FY23 east coast winter crop has been lifted to 27.0mt from 24.7mt by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The three month rainfall outlook also remains strong, according to UBS.

In response, the broker raises its FY23 earnings (EBITDA) estimate by 9% to $439m. Long term forecasts are left unchanged and the target price rises to $8.60 from $8.50.

More negatively, the analyst points out global grain and oilseed prices have fallen in the last few months in reaction to increased North America crop expectations. The opening of Ukraine grain export corridors has also contributed. The Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $0.5
If GNC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.70, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HAS as Outperform (1) -

Hastings Technology Metals has launched an institutional placement and share purchase plan raising up to $110m at $4.40 per share or a -18.8% discount to the previous close price, Macquarie reports.

Hastings will use the proceeds to advance its Yangibana project which includes upstream mine and beneficiation plant and downstream processing plant.

Securing a funding agreement for Yangibana that will enable the miner to commence production remains a key catalyst, the broker notes. Outperform retained, target falls to $6.10 from $6.30 on dilution.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.42 Difference: $0.68
If HAS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IPL as Neutral (3) -

In a FY22 update at Incitec Pivot's investor day, management noted increased gas costs in Queensland and reduced supply, as well as  higher working capital.

The company estimates gas supply disruptions at Phosphate Hill will increase FY22 gas costs by around -$45m for the Fertiliser segment. In the Explosives segment, the Dyno Nobel Cheyenne turnaround has been deferred to 2023 due to non-availability of critical equipment.

Citi maintains its Neutral rating and $4.00 target price.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.31
If IPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IPL as Outperform (1) -

Incitec Pivot has provided further insight into the outlook for Dyno Nobel and Incitec Pivot Fertiliser as demerged entities. 

Credit Suisse notes Phosphate Hill provides a competitive and stable cost base from which the company targets mid-to-high single digit earnings growth for Dyno Nobel. The broker warns not to expect upgrades to Dyno Nobel at this point. 

Expansion of soil health and liquid fertilisers, and a potential urea offtake agreement with Perdaman, are the main drivers of earnings uplift for Incitec Pivot Fertiliser according to Credit Suisse. 

The Outperform rating and target price of $4.03 are retained.

Target price is $4.03 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.34
If IPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IPL as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its FY22 and FY23 EPS forecasts by -6% and -4%, respectively, following a performance update at Incitec Pivot's investor day. The target falls to $4.35 from $4.45.

Management noted Phosphate Hill gas supply disruptions will have a -$45m impact in FY22 and pointed to lower fertiliser demand and global fertiliser supply constraints.

Guidance for Fertiliser earnings of between $40-45m for FY22, represents a decline of -25-35% on the previous corresponding period.

The broker retains its Buy rating on the company's significant operating leverage to elevated DAP and ammonia pricing, along with very favourable demand dynamics linked to global agriculture.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.69 Difference: $0.66
If IPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 14.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MGR as Equal-weight (3) -

Post FY22 results, Morgan Stanley takes a deeper look at Mirvac Group's residential sales momentum, as it drives market sentiment towards the developers. This is because momentum is considered a strong forward indicator of residential settlements and earnings.

Mirvac Group's pre-sales showed a slowdown in the 2H of FY22, with land lot sales falling by -42% compared to the 1H.

The brokers concerns relate to earnings visibility of active profits in FY23 (no developments locked in) and an Equal-weight rating is maintained. One potential upside would be if the group secured a partner for its office/industrial pipeline.

The target price of $2.30 is retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.23
If MGR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 19.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MIN as Outperform (1) -

While Credit Suisse has revised its short-term iron ore outlook to the downside, and subsequently lowered its target price for Mineral Resources, the broker continues to view the company as a compelling story. 

The broker lowered its iron ore price forecasts -US$10.00 a tonne, to US$130 per tonne in 2022 and US$120 per tonne in 2023. Credit Suisse anticipates a recovery in 2023, but finds super profits unlikely while the China property market remains weak.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $75.00 from $78.00.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $60.34 Difference: $14.66
If MIN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $79.76, suggesting upside of 34.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NAB as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

National Australia Bank’s expectations already incorporate much of the upside, despite the potential risk of more pressure on
deposit funding given a historically weaker deposit base. Given the full multiple, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform.

Target rises to $30.25 from $29.50.

Target price is $30.25 Current Price is $30.24 Difference: $0.01
If NAB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.69, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has materially upgraded thermal coal price forecasts 14-50% between 2022-2026, seeing no signs of the energy crisis declining. For New Hope, this drove earnings forecast increases of 33%, 40% and 27% through to FY25.

With New Hope having no dividend policy beyond a previously indicated 25% earnings payout minimum, Credit Suisse is estimating a 21% dividend yield in September, lifting to 33% and 28% in FY23 and FY24. The broker expects net cash to grow to $2.7bn by the end of FY25, leaving room for further returns.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.90 from $5.20.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $5.72 Difference: $2.18
If NHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.35, suggesting downside of -1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has taken a more cautionary short-term outlook on commodities, forecasting lower near-term prices for copper and iron ore. This has driven the broker to lower its earnings forecasts for Rio Tinto -14%, -16% and -7% through to 2024. 

 Despite the downgrade, Credit Suisse highlights Rio Tinto's strong cash generation and volume growth, potential upside from Turquoise Hill, and peer-leading decarbonisation targets. The broker finds Rio Tinto well positioned to invest off-cycle and generate value longer-term.

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price decreases to $101.00 from $115.00. 

Target price is $101.00 Current Price is $90.80 Difference: $10.2
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.21, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Due to market surpluses, Macquarie downgrades its 2022-24 alumina price forecasts by -9-12% and its aluminium price forecasts by -12-24%.

This drives cuts in 2022-25 earnings forecasts for Rio Tinto of -2-12% and a target price cut to $93 from $97.

Neutral retained.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $90.80 Difference: $2.2
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $104.21, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Due to market surpluses, Macquarie downgrades its 2022-24 alumina price forecasts by -9-12% and its aluminium price forecasts by -12-24%.

This drives cuts in FY23-26 earnings forecasts for South32 of -25-33% and a target price cut to $4.70 from $5.60.

As South32 continues to trade at a discount to valuation, Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.56
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.93, suggesting upside of 22.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFR as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

Thus far this year, Sandfire Resources' shares have been wallopped on investor concerns about ever-rising energy costs in Spain. Ord Minnett, post another research update, shares those concerns.

However, at the present share price the broker also believes the risk has now been priced in.

Upgrade to Hold from Sell. Target price unchanged at $3.80.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.54, suggesting upside of 48.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Post FY22 results, Morgan Stanley takes a deeper look at Stockland's residential sales momentum, as it drives market sentiment towards the developers. This is because momentum is considered a strong forward indicator of residential settlements and earnings.

The company's pre-sales showed a slowdown in the 2H of FY22, with land lot sales falling by -19% compared to the 1H.

The broker prefers Stockland (Overweight) over Equal-weight rated Mirvac Group in a weakening market as it is 85% covered for FY23 settlements, versus 68% at Mirvac. 

An attractive dividend yield and potential upside from developments and land lease are also noted by the analyst. The target price of $4.55 is retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $1.01
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.15, suggesting upside of 18.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SWM as Outperform (1) -

With its current AFL media rights deal completing in 2024, Seven West Media has secured a new deal from 2025 through 2031. Credit Suisse notes the renewed contract comes at a 14% cost increase in 2025, as well as 2% average cost indexation for the duration of the agreement.

The broker highlights the agreement includes digital rights, and Seven West Media intends to launch the 7plus AFL hub on its digital platform. While potentially at the expense of its linear base, Credit Suisse notes the company can benefit from ad inventory on digital.

The Outperform rating and target price of $0.90 are retained.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.41
If SWM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.68, suggesting upside of 41.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes FY23 traffic should be strong for Transurban, with Sydney roads returning to 2019 levels in June, positive vehicle registration growth, and increased migration.

Costs remain an issue, the broker expecting a 12% increase in FY23, volume-recovery related, but also from development spend. Development upside remains with the M7 widening and Brisbane widening.

Outperform retained, target falls to $14.36 from $14.66.

Target price is $14.36 Current Price is $13.71 Difference: $0.65
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.35, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

It seems Ord Minnett has added Tourism Holdings to its local coverage. The company is of the intent to "merge" with Apollo Tourism and Leisure ((ATL)) but the broker readily acknowledges a positive outcome is not guaranteed.

As far as the FY22 performance goes, Ord Minnett comments the result highlighted one thing: the damage inflicted by the pandemic. There is hope the worst of the pandemic is now in the past.

There is cautious optimism about the operational dynamics and outlook. Meanwhile, competition authorities are playing hard ball on the proposed transaction, the broker notes.

Buy. Target NZ$4.93 (up from NZ$4.40). Estimates have been lifted.

Current Price is $0.00. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees a payout ratio of 100% of profit as more appropriate for Lottery Corp than the current 70-90% payout ratio. It's felt the new board should strive to attain an infrastructure-like valuation multiple, closer to peers.

A dividend policy based on through-the-cycle growth expectations would smooth the dividend profile and help support valuation, according to the analyst.

The Overweight rating and $5.00 target are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.38 Difference: $0.62
If TLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie sees upside in the next six months for the banks, driven by benefits from rising rates and lagging term-deposit pricing, but the benefits aren’t likely to last.

On the one hand, the broker sees further upside risk to bank earnings in 1H23 but on the other, Macquarie's earnings forecasts remain well below consensus for FY24 and beyond given potential credit-quality concerns, demanding pre-provision valuations, and elevated multiples relative to global peers.

Macquarie prefers ANZ Bank to Westpac within the value category. Neutral retained for Westpac. Target rises to $22.25 from $22.00.

Target price is $22.25 Current Price is $21.27 Difference: $0.98
If WBC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.38, suggesting upside of 17.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WEB as Equal-weight (3) -

Following Webjet's investor day, Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating. While the company's competitiveness is improving, it's felt a recovery beyond pre-covid highs has already been priced-in, ahead of delivery.

Management reiterated its aim to be number one by size in the B2B market and the analyst believes the company can deliver its target of $10bn in total transaction value (TTV) with the current distribution partners, technology and hotel inventory.

The $6.00 target price is unchanged. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.79
If WEB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.56, suggesting upside of 28.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WHC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has materially upgraded thermal coal price forecasts 14-50% between 2022-2026, seeing no signs of the energy crisis declining. For Whitehaven Coal, this drove earnings forecast increases of 33%, 40% and 27% through to FY25.

The broker noted it estimates Whitehaven Coal may issue buybacks of $1.1bn in FY23, alongside a 10% dividend yield, while anticipating net cash will strengthen to $6bn by the end of FY25. 

The Outperform rating is retained and the target price increases to $11.20 from $8.90.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.80 Difference: $2.4
If WHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources