Australian Broker Call

UBS rates ALU as Downgrade to Sell from Buy (5) -

Since mid-June, the Altium share price has risen 60%, including a kick from an earnings "beat" last month. The Nasdaq, in which lies many an Altium-like US stock, has only risen 9%.

UBS can see justification for share price strength but things have gotten a bit out of hand. On current valuation the broker downgrades to Sell from Buy. Target unchanged at $9.05.

Target price is $9.05 Current Price is $9.89 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates ASX as Hold (3) -

Overall activity stats were weak in August. The analysts acknowledge the ASX is trailing strong performance numbers from last year, but still, at present Deutsche Bank's expectations are under threat for FY17.

Given inherent volatility, the analysts are willing to leave their estimates unchanged, for now. The underlying sentiment is that risk seems to be to the downside. Hold rating retained. Price target $48.70 (unchanged).

Target price is $48.70 Current Price is $51.70 Difference: minus $3 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.53, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ASX as Reduce (5) -

FY17 continues its soft start, Morgans observes, with traded futures daily value for the month of August down 22%. Cash equities trading is more mixed, with daily trade volumes up 21% but the average daily value down 4%.

The earnings stream remains stable but Morgans reduces futures growth forecasts slightly. As a result target is lowered to $43.08 from $43.77. Reduce rating retained.

Target price is $43.08 Current Price is $51.70 Difference: minus $8.62 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.53, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Underperform (5) -

The shares have rallied following the announcement the litigation with Alcoa will cease and the AWAC joint venture agreement will be amended.

Credit Suisse notes the main change is the dropping of the poison pill which required the JV to be the sole ownership vehicle for all alumina assets of the partners.

The broker finds it hard to justify in valuation terms a bid for Alumina, if one were to eventuate, where a takeover premium was offered. Also, it would be hard for Alcoa to justify an offer, either cash or scrip based. Underperform and $1.30 target retained.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.39, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

BHP will sell half its stake (50%) in the Scarborough area offshore gas fields and half its 100% stake in the Jupiter and Thebe targets for US$400m to Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)).

ExxonMobil is the operator of Scarborough and Woodside will become operator of the other two.

Morgan Stanley finds the decision a good strategic move as it might allow Scarborough to be switched form a floating LNG concept to a fed source for another LNG project, such as the North West Shelf where production is in decline.

Overweight rating and $25 target price retained.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $20.34 Difference: $4.66
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

The company has sold down its stake in the Scarborough area gas fields to Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) for US$400m all up. Ord Minnett observes the transaction helps de-risk the project and crystalise vale for an asset to which the market ascribes little value.

The deal highlights, in the broker's view, that BHP continues to envisage its advantage lies in North America for gas developments. Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $20 target.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.34 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.13, suggesting upside of 8.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CVO as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Cover-More is currently in negotiations for a new underwriting deal and UBS assumes the market will remain cautious until an announcement is made.

But North America JV volumes are likely to slide in the second half, the broker assumes, and domestic price rises are struggling to push through. UBS has decreased its gross written premium forecasts and notes with no forex hedging, Cover-More is exposed to a sharp fall in the A$.

On balance UBS has pulled back to Neutral. Target falls to $1.35 from $1.56.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CVO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GBT as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

GBST's share price has fallen 20% in the last three months, UBS notes, largely on Brexit fears. But the broker feels this risk is now priced in and the Cofunds announcement adds valuation upside.

Hence on valuation UBS has upgraded to Buy from Neutral, with an unchanged $4.50 target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.02 Difference: $0.48
If GBT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.85, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Investor questions focus on the medium-term growth outlook, the sustainability of the development pipeline and capital structure, Morgan Stanley observes.

The company continues to believe the returns are stronger to build than to buy. The broker remains comfortable with the company's 6-7% earnings-per-share growth outlook and considers it sustainable but not fully reflected in the share price.

Overweight rating, Attractive industry view retained. Target is $7.70.

Target price is $7.70 Current Price is $7.57 Difference: $0.13
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.39, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MQA as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Macquarie Group ((MQG)) has sold down its stake in Macquarie Atlas with its interest now reduced to around 11%. Morgans observes this development has no impact on fundamental valuation.

Still, given the weakness in the share price resulting from the sell down the broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is $5.86.

The key short-term catalyst for the stock is considered to be the Dulles Greenway sales process. The broker observes the road is in one of the fastest growing and more affluent counties in the US.

Target price is $5.86 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.58
If MQA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 11.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact will acquire Australian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers for $90m. The company manufactures tablets, hard gel capsules and powders.

Credit Suisse estimates the acquisition is around 4% accretive. Customer volume is underpinned by a surge in the demand for vitamins/supplements from Chinese consumers although the broker notes demand has slowed recently given excess inventory at distributors.

The broker suspects high gearing may constrain further earnings upside from acquisitions, although growth is expected to remain significant for Pact. Target is raised to $6.30 from $6.00. Neutral retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.03
If PGH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates PGH as Buy (1) -

Deutsche Bank views the acquisition of Australian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (APM) for $90m as a positive as the deal should be accretive and meet the company's investment hurdles.

The analysts point out APM, established in 2002 and headquartered in Keysborough, Victoria, is one of the largest providers of manufacturing and packaging services for nutraceuticals in Australia. For Pact, the deal means further expansion into specialised co-manufacturing following the earlier absorption of Jalco.

Buy rating retained. Target unchanged at $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.53
If PGH meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Outperform (1) -

The company will acquire Australian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers, a specialty co-manufacturer, for $90m. The acquisition will be funded by debt and a $15m share issue.

Macquarie observes the company has a strong track record in acquisitions and, while underlying growth is subdued, is pleased to witness use of all levers to generate growth.

Target rises to $6.65 from $6.20. Outperform retained.

Target price is $6.65 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.38
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PGH as Hold (3) -

Pact will acquire Australian Pharmaceutical Manufacturers for $90m, one of the largest manufacturers of tablets, capsules and powders to the supplements industry.

Morgans calculates the acquisition will be accretive by 3% in FY17 and 5% in FY18. The broker believes the trend towards health and well being in Australia means there is solid long-term growth potential and the deal also diversifies the company's revenue base away from food, dairy and beverages.

Hold rating retained. Target is raised to $6.34 from $6.13.

Target price is $6.34 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.07
If PGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.34, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SFR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update to lift its rating to Buy from Neutral, while slicing 1c off the price target, to $6.24. The analysts point at lower cost organic growth in comparison with OZ Minerals' ((OZL)) Carrapateena project, as well as recent share price weakness to support the move.

Target price is $6.24 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.9
If SFR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.77, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SGR as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Press reports suggesting that the ASF consortium and Crown Resorts ((CWN)) are progressing with plans for an integrated resort on the Gold Coast are tenuous and well down the track in any case, in Credit Suisse's view.

The broker believes near-term growth will drive The Star's share price and notes that, since the emergence of Crown Sydney as a competitive threat, The Star's share price has actually appreciated.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $5.82 Difference: $0.68
If SGR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.53, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SLR as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

UBS has used a general sector update to upgrade its rating to Buy from Sell. The key reason mentioned is a positive view on the outlook for nickel prices. UBS's top pick in the sector remains Independence Group ((IGO)).

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.115
If SLR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Neutral (3) -

The ACCC is considering whether to "declare" a domestic mobile roaming service, which means direct access for all and not just via Telstra. The announcement surprised Telstra and the company is now looking at its capex intentions in roaming, the broker notes.

No change to forecasts, Neutral rating and $5.30 target retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.15 Difference: $0.15
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.37, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Woodside has agreed to purchase a circa 30% stake in the Scarborough gas field for US$250m, plus US$150m contingent payment on FID, from BHP Billiton ((BHP)). The analysts believe the price is cheap, and for a reason: they see limited development options for the high-cost field.

For Woodside, the analysts believe, the acquisition provides optionality over using the Scarborough field for a longer-dated back-fill of NWS or Pluto LNG. Deutsche Bank retains the Hold rating, alongside a $27 price target.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WPL as Neutral (3) -

The company will acquire half of BHP Billiton's ((BHP)) 50% interest in the Scarborough field and half of its 100% stake in the Thebe and Jupiter targets, 300km offshore Western Australia, for US$400m.

Macquarie notes development is long dated with a final investment decision in 2019/20 and a 3-5 year development likely. Nevertheless, The equity interest should provide the company with a seat at the table in negotiations.

Neutral retained. Target unchanged at $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $1.49
If WPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Overweight (1) -

Woodside will purchase half of BHP Billiton's ((BHP)) 50% stake in the Scarborough gas field and half of its 100% stake in the Thebe and Jupiter gas fields, for US$400m all up. The deal metrics appear attractive to Morgan Stanley, although there have been few deals recently to compare with.

The broker assumes the long-term goal for Woodside is to back fill for the North West Shelf. Exxon is operator of the fields so alignment of the joint venture partners will be required, Morgan Stanley notes.

The broker's Overweight rating and In-Line sector view are retained. Target is $34.09.

Target price is $34.09 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $5.58
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

Woodside will acquire half of BHP Billiton's ((BHP)) interests in the Scarborough area leases, offshore Western Australia.

Morgans notes the field is economically and technically challenging and the best option would be to tie back to an existing project, which may be hard to instigate. The joint venture's current preference is a floating LNG facility. Morgans is not confident this long-dated capital-intensive project will be accretive at this stage.

Another hurdle to development the broker observes may be the indications that ExxonMobil, the operator and major partner, is prioritising brownfield LNG opportunities in PNG. The broker retains a Hold rating. Target is reduced to $27.61 from $28.00.

Target price is $27.61 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: minus $0.9 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Hold (3) -

The company will acquire half of BHP Billiton's ((BHP)) Scarborough area assets in the Carnarvon Basin, offshore WA. The acquisition could be in production from the early 2020s.

Once the transaction completes, Woodside will become the operator and 50% owner of the Thebe and Jupiter fields and have a 25% share in the larger ExxonMobil-operated Scarborough field.

The development method remains key, the broker observes, with a floating LNG operation still considered the main option, and Woodside may bring an alternative development scenario to the table.

Ord Minnett retains a Hold rating and $30.00 target.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $1.49
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Woodside is acquiring half of BHP Billiton's ((BHP)) Scarborough assets in the Carnarvon Basin and will become operator of two of the three gas fields. At first glance the broker wonders why, given Woodside already has a stake in the larger Browse field in offshore WA.

Given plans for a Scarborough FLNG facility have been delayed, the gas could be sent to help backfill the existing North West Shelf trains, the broker concedes. The price was not expensive. Buy and $30 target retained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.51 Difference: $1.49
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.96, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY16:

Forecast for FY17:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources