Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi notes China announced another policy to boost birth rates, offering RMB3,600 ($764) per year for three years for a child born after Jan 1, 2026. 

China's commitment to increasing births is a positive for a2 Milk Co, Citi believes.

Buy. Target unchanged at $8.20.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.11 Difference: $0.09
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.40, suggesting downside of -6.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ACL as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes a merger between Australian Clinical Labs and Healius ((HLS)) has been a point of speculation for over 10 years.

Despite a false start in an attempted merger in 2023, the analyst believes a coming together is more sensible than ever, which could generate a pathology "powerhouse" with market share of 31%, including over 150 labs and over 3,000 collection centres.

Potential synergies could be generated for both companies' shareholders.

Target price is trimmed by -8% to $3.50. No change to Buy rating.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.67
If ACL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.55, suggesting upside of 29.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie flags more challenging conditions for AGL Energy towards the end of FY25 due to a softer performance from the coal fleet, which has resulted in less energy generated of around -2.1TWh than the previous year, which may equate to a -$153m impact.

Retail customers grew 1% from the acquisition of Ampol's book of some 40k, while there has been a lack of organic growth to 3Q25.

The analyst points to the company coming in at the lower guidance level of $580m–$710m.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -11.2% for FY25 on reduced coal-fired generation and -1.3% for FY26, with the broker sitting below consensus estimates by -13.8% and -5.6% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price is lowered to $11.13 from $11.47. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $11.13 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $1.08
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

The broker's preference remains with downstream players Ampol and Viva Energy ((VEA)).

The analyst cut the FY25 EPS forecast by -3% after marking-to-market refining and fuel margins. The broker will be looking for commentary on retail trading and fuel margin outlook in the upcoming quarterly.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $30. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $25.65 Difference: $4.35
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.90, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -

One of the key challenges for bank investors in the current market, Citi explains, is distinguishing near-term strength from emerging headwinds likely to materialise in FY26.

While conditions in the second half of 2025 remain benign, if not favourable, investors have focused more on earnings resilience and positive revisions than on valuations, suggest the analysts.

This backdrop has supported sector outperformance over the past three months, believes the broker.

Slowing credit growth may be further pressured by CommBank ((CBA)) and Westpac ((WBC)) continuing to pivot toward gaining share in business lending, a trend that could weigh on business lending spreads, highlights Citi.

ANZ Bank remains the broker's preferred exposure based on valuation. The Neutral rating and $27.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $30.32 Difference: minus $2.82 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $26.67, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Citi marginally slightly upgraded ASX's EPS forecast for FY25 after factoring in the June monthly activity. The broker notes the business is performing well, with 14% growth in cash market volumes in FY25 and 19% growth in futures volumes, along with green shoots in the IPO market.

However, regulatory risk is a headwind, with ASIC commencing a compliance assessment and enquiry which will be made public in March 2026.

For FY25, the broker is forecasting core net profit of $515.3m vs $474.2m in FY24. EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 0.2%, but no change to FY26.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $71.60.

Target price is $71.60 Current Price is $69.79 Difference: $1.81
If ASX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $66.08, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS notes the ASX ended June with strong equity turnover, supported by geopolitical volatility, as June cash equities rose 20.8% year-on-year, lifting 2H25 growth to 19.4%, ahead of the 10.7% expected by consensus.

Futures volume growth, in contrast, stalled in June (-0.4% year-on-year), though still delivered 20.1% growth for 2H25, modestly ahead of consensus at 18.4%, observes the broker.

Capital raisings rebounded sharply, up 125% year-on-year in 2H25, and collateral balances rose 16% to $13bn.

Despite this solid activity, UBS makes slight EPS downgrades for FY25/26 and flags ongoing regulatory and cost risks related to the CHESS replacement project.

The broker maintains a Sell rating with an unchanged $69.10 price target, citing limited value appeal and a constrained 4% EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY25–29.

Target price is $69.10 Current Price is $69.79 Difference: minus $0.69 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $66.08, suggesting downside of -5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie has downgraded Boss Energy to Neutral from Outperform on a tactical call due to the rise in the share price, up 70%-plus for the calendar year to date, and is pricing in a uranium price of US$75/lb.

The analyst flags the U308 price might consolidate lower by -8% to -10% once the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (Sprott) stops buying in the spot market in the next week or so, to levels around US$70/lb where utilities will re-enter the carry trade.

With management having announced on June 18 FY25 guidance production of 850klbs, the broker lowers the 4Q25 drummed volume to 375klbs due to the flagged maintenance.

Until there is a rise in U308 term pricing in Sept/Oct, Macquarie believes uranium stocks will be subject to spot price moves.

The target price slips by -3.2% to $4.45 due to a change in the valuation. The broker's EPS estimate is tweaked 3% and 3.7% higher for FY26/FY27.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.09 Difference: $0.36
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

For Beach Energy, the marked-to-market resulted in 4% increases to FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts, but after accounting for Waitisia stage 2 first gas and related adjustments, the FY26 EPS forecast fell by -7%.

The broker's FY25 production forecast is 19.5MMboe vs guidance of 18.5-20.5MMboe.

Underweight. Target cut to $1.21 from $1.27. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.21 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Buy (1) -

UBS suggests the revenue outlook for Australian supermarkets remains robust, though headwinds persist from sustained non-food competition and declining tobacco sales, which now represent less than 5% of the total.

The broker was commenting after reviewing the UBS Supermarket Supplier Survey (conducted June 3-26) featured fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) players who provided current trading and outlook insights.

April-May trading favoured Coles Group over Woolworths Group, highlights the analyst. Buy-rated Coles remains preferred over Woolworths (Neutral) given stronger execution and multiple cost-saving levers, though execution at Woolworths is expected to improve.

UBS retains a $23.50 target price for Coles Group.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.91 Difference: $2.59
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.05, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWY as Accumulate (2) -

Morgans updates earnings estimates for Cleanaway Waste Management post the ACCC's approval of the Contract Resources acquisition, which is due to be completed on July 31, 2025.

The analyst lifts earnings (EBIT) forecasts by 1% for FY26, but there is no impact on forecast profit before tax due to higher interest costs assumed.

Cleanaway is due to report FY25 earnings on August 19.

No change to Accumulate rating. Target rises to $3.12 from $2.98.

Target price is $3.12 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.35
If CWY meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Morgans retains a Buy rating on Domino’s Pizza Enterprises with a revised price target of $22.20, down from $29.40, viewing the recent leadership change as an opportunity to accelerate the turnaround strategy.

The broker believes the departure of the CEO will not delay earnings recovery, as Executive Chairman Jack Cowin emphasises urgency, particularly around cost reduction.

The analysts anticipate earnings will grow in FY26, driven by internal cost-out initiatives, especially in IT and head office expenses, with much of the benefit accruing to shareholders.

The company has ruled out an equity raise, and the balance sheet remains sound, in the broker's view.

Overall, Morgans views the current valuation as mispriced relative to peers and sees early signs of operational improvement supporting a medium-term re-rate.

Target price is $22.20 Current Price is $17.74 Difference: $4.46
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.98, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

After opening a 90-day positive catalyst watch for Goodman Group last week, Citi highlights the first positive newsflow with the expansion of the data centre pipeline.

Goodman Group announced a Hong Kong Data Centre Partnership, a new US$2.7bn data centre dedicated investment vehicle focusing on Hong Kong's data centre market.

Initial portfolio includes six assets delivering over 180MW IT load equating to around 30% of the market.

The broker reiterates the 90-day positive catalyst watch, expecting more positive news through the FY25 results in August.

Buy. Target unchanged at $40.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $35.05 Difference: $4.95
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.95, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Goodman Group’s latest data centre partnership in Hong Kong as a strategic validation of its digital infrastructure ambitions.

The broker notes the deal includes six assets, four of which are stabilised and being transferred from the existing Hong Kong Logistics fund. Two development projects, including HK10, are also part of the new structure.

The group will retain a 20% stake, with the remainder held by five global investors already on its platform. Morgan Stanley sees this as a positive milestone, although the earnings impact for FY25 is expected to be modest, with performance fees booked before June 30. 

Overweight. Target $40.47. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $40.47 Current Price is $35.05 Difference: $5.42
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.95, suggesting upside of 5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HMC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has reviewed HMC Capital post the latest announcements from David Di Pilla, including the abandoning of plans to grow the renewable energy portfolio, although the acquisition of the Neoen portfolio will continue and funds are being raised.

The broker believes the acquisition will be finalised and then divested once the investment climate improves in six months or so, for the same level as what is being paid.

Taking Neoen onto the balance sheet using debt would increase gearing to 38% from 0%.

Ord Minnett makes no changes to funds from operations forecast for FY25, while estimates for FY26 and FY27 are dropped by -19.1% and -9%, respectively.

Target price moves to $5.55 with no change in Buy rating.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.37 Difference: $1.18
If HMC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting upside of 61.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Hub24 to Buy from Neutral, with a rise in the target price to $105 from $74.

The analyst believes there is a long runway for specialty platforms (SPPs) from the under-advised mass affluent market and high-net-worth segments, which are gradually moving to a platform basis.

Hub24 is viewed as having better "prospects" than Netwealth ((NWL)) due to twice the rate of adviser growth, a higher share of the market, and better operating leverage due to lower margins.

Hub24 also has better platform benchmarking scores and managed account functions.

The broker's EPS forecasts are raised by 4% for FY25, and by 14% for both FY26 and FY27. UBS estimates funds under administration will reache around $282bn, some 20% above consensus.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $91.75 Difference: $13.25
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $83.61, suggesting downside of -11.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ILU as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to expect the global zircon market to remain strong due to its role in high-performance materials and zirconia's use in solid-state batteries.

Growth in titanium is underpinned by expanding aircraft fleets, representing around 10%-15% of aircraft weight.

Iluka Resources remains the broker's top pick, generating around 20% of global zircon supply and circa 10% of titanium.

Outperform. Target unchanged at $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $3.79 Difference: $2.71
If ILU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.51, suggesting upside of 46.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates KAR as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

For Karoon Energy, the marked-to-market resulted in a 12% increase to the FY25 EPS forecast and 28% increase to FY26. The broker's FY25 production forecast is 10.2MMboe vs guidance of 9-10.5MMboe.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $1.80 from $1.67. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.89 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If KAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.20, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Metro Mining's 2Q25 production of 589kt fell short of Shaw and Partners' forecast due to constraints on barge loading. The company expects this to be rectified soon, but the broker slightly lowered its FY25 forecast to 6.5Mt from 6.6Mt, the bottom end of guidance.

The company stated September quarter bauxite prices will be lower vs Q2, and it is -$5/wmt lower than the broker's forecast. However, the broker didn't change estimates for 4Q or FY26 and continues to expect the company to move to a net cash position by the quarter end.

No change to forecasts. Buy, High Risk with unchanged target price of 17c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.101
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MPL as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie expects Medibank Private to slightly miss policyholder growth expectations in 2H25 due to sustained competition.

More positively, leading into August results, private health insurers are expected to act as a relative safe haven in a more challenging economic climate, supported by unusually soft claims volumes in the second half.

The broker's target price rises to $4.50 from $4.25. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If MPL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting downside of -1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie expects nib Holdings to meet its FY25 underyling operating profit guidance, as subdued claims volume growth in the residents business during 2H25 helps offset other operational pressures.

Leading into August results, private health insurers are expected to act as a relative safe haven in a more challenging economic climate, supported by unusually soft claims volumes in the second half.

The Neutral rating and $5.60 target are maintained.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: minus $1.48 (current price is over target).
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.97, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes there is a long runway for specialty platforms (SPPs) from the under-advised mass affluent market and high-net-worth segments, which are gradually moving to a platform basis.

Hub24 ((HUB)) is viewed as having better "prospects" than Netwealth Group due to twice the rate of adviser growth, a higher share of the market, and better operating leverage due to lower margins. Hub24 also has better platform benchmarking scores and managed account functions.

The broker lifts Netwealth's EPS forecasts by 2% for FY25, 9% for FY26, and 8% for FY27 on a more robust funds outlook and mark-to-market 4Q25. UBS estimates funds under administration will reach $263bn by FY30, which sits 9% above consensus.

No change to Neutral rating. Target price moves to $35 from $27.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $34.18 Difference: $0.82
If NWL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.51, suggesting downside of -17.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

For Origin Energy, the marked-to-market resulted in a 3% increase to the FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts. 

Underweight. Target rises to $9.46 from $9.33. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $9.46 Current Price is $10.82 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has updated its forecasts for Pinnacle Investment Management following the June quarter, downgrading FY25 earnings due to lower expected performance fees. FY26 and FY27 estimates rise on stronger funds under management (FUM) growth.

The broker expects June quarter inflows to be robust, forecasting figures around 6% above market expectations.

Ord Minnett raises its target price to $26.10 from $24.80 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $26.10 Current Price is $21.22 Difference: $4.88
If PNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.63, suggesting upside of 13.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PNV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Morgans updated its model for PolyNovo ahead of FY25 result on August 25.

The forecasts for FY25 are unchanged, with revenue of $129m in line with consensus. However, the broker cut the gross profit margin forecast to 91% from 94% and increased regulatory and new market development costs for FY26 and FY27.

This resulted in cuts to the FY26 and FY27 EPS forecasts.

Speculative Buy. Target price unchanged at $1.69 as the broker reduced the discount applied in valuation to 20% from 25%.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.47
If PNV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 84.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees potential valuation upside for Ramsay Health Care from an in specie distribution or divestment of its 52.8% stake in Ramsay Sante.

The broker estimates the value of this holding at approximately $5 per share and suggests such a move could simplify the business and support a re-rating of the remaining operations.

Additionally, the analysts value Ramsay’s Australian property portfolio at around $5.3bn, or $23 per share.

Morgan Stanley raises its target to $38.00 from $37.40 and retains its Equal-weight rating, citing uncertainty around the timing and execution of strategic initiatives. Ongoing wage inflation pressures across the group are also noted. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $38.00 Current Price is $39.30 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.29, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates STO as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

For Santos, the marked-to-market increased the FY25 EPS forecast by 6% and FY26 by 13%. The broker's FY25 production forecast is 91.9MMboe vs guidance of 90-97MMboe.

Target price lifted to $8.80 from $6.92 to reflect the non-binding offer from the XRG consortium. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.68 Difference: $1.12
If STO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SVM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie continues to expect the global zircon market to remain strong due to its role in high-performance materials and zirconia's use in solid-state batteries.

Growth in titanium is underpinned by expanding aircraft fleets, representing around 10%-15% of aircraft weight.

Outperform rating and $1 target retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.31
If SVM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates THL as Hold (3) -

Management at Tourism Holdings Rentals has guided to FY25 profit at the lower end of NZ$27.0–34.4m, falling short of the consensus forecast.

This guidance is somewhat overshadowed by the proposed takeover offer by BGH Capital and the Trouchet shareholders at NZ$2.30 cash per share, suggest the analysts.

Lower guidance reflects ongoing weakness in RV sales and margins, especially in 2H25, though net debt was slightly better than Morgans' forecast.

Outside the US, FY26 rental outlook was described as strong by management, with forward bookings in A&NZ up by circa 25% year-on-year.

Morgans lowers FY25-27 profit estimates by -39.1%, -28.5%, and -26.9%, respectively, but expects earnings recovery from 2H26 as economic conditions improve.

The broker's target is $2.33. Hold.

Target price is $2.33 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.31
If THL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates THL as Buy (1) -

Tourism Holdings Rentals has downgraded FY25 guidance again, observes Ord Minnett. Management now expects profit of between $27.0–34.4m, versus a prior consensus number of $33m, citing persistent weakness in global used vehicle sales.

The broker believes the downgrade reflects a cyclical low largely beyond the company's control, occurring as a non-binding takeover bid from BGH Capital at NZ$2.30 per share remains unresolved.

Management's commentary on the A&NZ rental outlook is the most positive since covid, note the analysts, with forward revenue up 25% year-on-year, and US rental trends also stabilising.

Ord Minnett has cut EPS forecasts by -25% for FY25 and -21% for both FY26 and FY27. The broker lowers its target price to NZ$2.61 from NZ$2.92 and retains a Buy rating.

Current Price is $2.02. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 17.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

The broker's preference remains downstream players Ampol ((ALD)) and Viva Energy.

The analyst cut the 1H25 Geelong refiner intake forecast and lifted the margin slightly. Net debt estimates also lowered after revisions to working capital assumptions.  

The broker will be looking for commentary on cost saving, synergies and store rollout progress at the upcoming quarterly.

Equal-weight. Target rises to $2.16 from $1.99. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WDS as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley marked-to-market June quarter forecasts for energy companies and following revisions to oil and gas forecasts, and AUD/USD exchange rate. The broker lifted Brent oil price forecast by 4-6% until the March 2027 quarter, before lowering the forecast for June 2027 quarter by -7%.

The Henry Hub natural gas price forecast was lowered until the March 2026 quarter and upgraded by 1-4% thereafter, while JKM LNG price forecasts were mixed in the near term, before 9% increases later.

The AUD/USD exchange rate forecast was lifted by 3% for the September and December quarters, and left unchanged after that.

For Woodside Energy, the marked-to-market resulted in a net increase to the FY25 EPS forecast of 8% and FY26 of 16%. The broker's FY25 production forecast is 194.6MMboe vs guidance of 186-196MMboe.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at $26. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $26.00 Current Price is $24.06 Difference: $1.94
If WDS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.98, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WOW as Neutral (3) -

UBS suggests the revenue outlook for Australian supermarkets remains robust, though headwinds persist from sustained non-food competition and declining tobacco sales, which now represent less than 5% of the total.

The broker was commenting after reviewing the UBS Supermarket Supplier Survey (conducted June 3-26) featured fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) players who provided current trading and outlook insights.

April-May trading favoured Coles Group over Woolworths Group, highlights the analyst. Buy-rated Coles remains preferred over Woolworths (Neutral) given stronger execution and multiple cost-saving levers, though execution at Woolworths is expected to improve.

UBS retains a $32 target price for Woolworths shares.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $31.38 Difference: $0.62
If WOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.04, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi's analysis of WiseTech Global's hiring activity shows a pick-up through 2H25, which the broker reckons is positive for the revenue outlook. Total headcounts, including recent acquisitions, were up 6% y/y in 2H25, with 140 gains in 2H25 vs 32 in 1H.

While increased hiring points to higher costs, the broker believes consensus is too high, seeing upside risk to consensus FY25 EBITDA margins. The analyst is 2% ahead on the forecast.

For FY26, the broker sees downside risk to consensus' revenue growth projection but also sees offset from stronger EBITDA margins and forex.

Buy. Target unchanged at $127.40.

Target price is $127.40 Current Price is $112.10 Difference: $15.3
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources