Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates 29M as Speculative Buy (1) -

29Metals' June-quarter result easily outpaced consensus' and Ord Minnett's forecasts and management reiterated cost and production guidance.

But the broker observes balance sheet risks remain, which it suspects could affect execution risk and Golden Grove and the return of its suspended Capricorn Copper project near Mt Isa.

These concerns were highlighted by the landing of a -$27m stamp duty bill and 11.7% interest rate, overshadowing the significant unlocked value the broker spies in the company's assets (2024 copper production forecasts rise 8% while strong zinc volumes on improved margins results in a tripling of the broker's earnings (EBITDA) forecast but these are more than offset by higher interest rates).

EPS forecasts fall -7% in 2025 and -11% in 2026.

Ord Minnett notes 29Metals has reported negative free cash flow for the past four halves and changes its rating to Speculative Buy from Accumulate. Price target is steady at $0.75.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.37
If 29M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 43.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS adjusts EPS forecasts by -3.7% for FY24 and -3.8% for FY25 and the estimates for AMP are -8% below consensus due to wealth and partnerships.

AMP is due to report 1H24 earnings on August 8.

Sell rating and 98c target unchanged with ongoing concerns over the "operational outlook" and longer term strategy.

Target price is $0.98 Current Price is $1.15 Difference: minus $0.165 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.14, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ANG as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Austin Engineering's FY24 trading updated highlighted to Shaw and Partners strength in both cash conversion and the order book.

Management anticipates FY24 operating cash flow (OCF) will exceed $37m due to significant profit to cash conversion, compared to the broker's prior $23.5m forecast. Profit guidance was unchanged.

The analyst now forecasts a FY24 EBITDA margin of 15.7% versus 12.1% in the previous corresponding period.

The Buy, High Risk rating is maintained. The target rises to 78c from 75c.

Target price is $0.78 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.13
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS adjusts estimates for ASX by 0.9% in FY24 and 1% for FY25.

Sell rating and $55 target unchanged.

ASX is due to report FY24 earnings on August 16.

Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $63.84 Difference: minus $8.84 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $58.76, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners maintains its Buy, High Risk rating and $7.40 target for Bannerman Energy following the June quarter activities report.

The broker provides sparse detail on the report, preferring to focus on management's past achievements around the Etango-8 uranium project where a final investment decision (FID) is expected by the end of 2024.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $4.66
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 170% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BSL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights declines are ongoing for detached housing starts data in Australia, which will likely place pressure on construction activity and materials demand through the 2H of 2024 and into 2025.

The prior significant work pipeline is being eroded, note the analysts.

For BlueScope Steel, which reports FY24 results on August 19, Australia represents 44% of revenue. While residential is only one component of that number it is high-value and high-margin, highlight the analysts.

The $20 target and Underweight rating is unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $21.53 Difference: minus $1.53 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.26, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

The outlook for CAR Group continues to be positive, albeit Citi is looking for revenue growth to slow to 9%, year-on-year for FY25 from 12% on FY24 as private volumes slow and dealer price growth abates.

The broker attended the Australian Automotive Dealers Association conference last week and dealers are expecting "tougher time ahead".

Conditions have worsened over the 1H2024 with dealer profitability down to 1.93%, with the top 30 better at 3.8% the broker notes.

Oversupplied conditions ex Toyota and Kia should underpin media revenue for CAR Group, Citi states and the risk remains of ongoing weakness into 2025. 

Buy rating and $39.80 target retained. 

Target price is $39.80 Current Price is $34.07 Difference: $5.73
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.10, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades Challenger to Neutral from Sell and raises the target price to $6.95 from $6.65 with the broker anticipating the company can achieve its target return on equity sooner rather expected.

Cost savings from its new Accenture contract and better Life margins as duration lengthens should also assist according to the analyst's outlook, although a greater than -$100m property valuation write-down may place pressure on capital.

Adjusting for mark-to-market changes, Citi lowers the FY24 EPS forecast by -27%. Risks over short-term fixed income defaults have abated, the broker highlights.

Target price is $6.95 Current Price is $6.82 Difference: $0.13
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.54, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CMM as Buy (1) -

Gold production in the 2Q for Capricorn Metals of 26.8koz (from the 100%-owned Karlawinda Gold Project in WA) just exceeded Bell Potter's 26.5koz estimate.

While FY24 costs came in -4% worse than the top of the guidance range, the overall result was good in the broker's opinion. For some perspective, costs remain among the lowest among ASX-listed gold producers, highlight the analysts.

The target eases to $6.38 from $6.53. Buy.

Target price is $6.38 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $1.1
If CMM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CMM as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes most of the Capricorn Metals' 4Q24 results were released previously, however the broker notes sales came in 5% better than expectations and market consensus.

All-in-sustaining costs were also better than expected and FY25 cost guidance came in -8% below the broker's and market's forecasts.

Capricorn Metals ended FY24 with cash and bullion of $125m, with net cash slightly better than expected at $67.9m.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts for FY24 by 1%, and FY25 EPS by 8% due to the lower cost guidance.

Neutral rating remains and the target lifted by 4% to $5.30.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.02
If CMM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 9.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Buy (1) -

Citi adjusts the earnings estimates for Computershare to account for up-to-date assumptions on interest rates and forex which results in a 2% lift in the FY25 EPS forecast.

The US trust market is viewed by the broker as more competitive than Canada, and Citi believes it is "unlikely" Computershare will be able to generate similar margins, but synergies from the ex-Wells Fargo business should boost margins above 20% with scope for improvement if scale is added.

Buy rating and $30 target price maintained.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.50 Difference: $2.5
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.87, suggesting upside of 6.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CRN as Buy (1) -

Following two years of investment across Australian and US operations, Bell Potter believes both the production and cost profiles for Coronado Global Resources have reached a turning point.

June quarter mining costs were US$91/t, an around -US$100m quarter-on-quarter reduction, driven by fleet and contractor rationalisation at Curragh following the recovery of historic pre-strip deficits, highlight the analysts.

June 2024 quarterly saleable coal production of 4.1mt was just short of Bell Potter's 4.2mt forecast.

The target rises to $1.90 from $1.85. Buy.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.52
If CRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.88, suggesting upside of 35.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Develop Global is an underground mining contractor and operates the Woodlawn Zinc-Copper mine and the Sulphur Springs Zinc-Copper project.

Contracted revenue for Q4 increased by 40% on Q3, taking FY24 contracted revenue to $142m, thereby exceeding management guidance for $130m as well as Bell Potter's $140m estimate.

The broker notes a final financing and offtake outcome is expected at Woodlawn in the coming weeks, and a formal process for an interest sell-down will commence in the September quarter.

The target rises to $3.50 from $3.20. Buy.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $1.99 Difference: $1.51
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Buy (1) -

Following a 4Q update by EBR Systems, Bell Potter anticipates further funding will be required (at the current cash burn rate) in the 2Q of 2025, post the anticipated FDA approval for the Wireless Stimulation Endocardially (WiSE) technology.

In line with expectations, management reaffirmed that it expects to submit the fifth and final module of its Pre-Market Approval (PMA) application to the FDA by September.

The Buy rating and $1.43 target are retained.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.35
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

Details within the 2Q Appendix 4C report for defence manufacturer Electro Optic Systems aligned with Bell Potter's expectations given unaudited results had been released earlier this month.

The industry outlook remains positive, with the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine and the Middle East driving robust demand, note the analysts.

The Buy rating and $2.20 target are retained.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.295
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FBU as Sell (5) -

Citi reviews the outlook for A&NZ building products companies on the back of deferred interest rate cuts alongside Australian housing starts and approvals at decade lows.

Historically rate cuts work with a six-to-twelve month lag to stimulate activity levels, the analyst states, noting a pickup or inflection point in activity levels may not be evident until well into FY26.

Citi revises earnings forecasts for Fletcher Building by -5% for FY25 and FY26.

The target price for Fletcher Building is lowered to NZ$3. Sell rated.

Current Price is $3.01. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights declines are ongoing for detached housing starts data in Australia, which will likely place pressure on construction activity and materials demand through the 2H of 2024 and into 2025.

The prior significant work pipeline is being eroded, note the analysts.

For Fletcher Building, the analysts highlight earnings derive 32% from Australia and 68% from New Zealand. While Australian earnings have already experienced one downgrade, the broker sees further risk, and elevated leverage heighteneds this risk further.

The company's FY24 result is due on August 21.

The Equal-weight rating and $2.84 target are unchanged. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.84 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting downside of -2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates GDG as Hold (3) -

Morgans describes a "very strong" 4Q for Generation Development's Investment Bond business, which achieved record sales, while funds under management (FUM) growth for Lonsec Investment Solutions was weaker due to one-offs.

Following the 4Q impacts of negative market movements and the loss of one legacy customer, management remains comfortable flows can return to past higher levels, highlights the analyst.

The target eases to $2.56 from $2.57. While the Hold rating is maintained on valuation, Morgans believes the full acquisition of Lonsec and the roll-out of the new Lifetime annuity product have the potential to accelerate growth.

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.13
If GDG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GQG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley sees few growth options within its coverage of asset managers on the ASX. GQG Partners is the preferred exposure based on strong inflows and almost 30% upside to the broker's price target of $3.75, up from $2.50.

In the 2H of FY23, annualised net inflows as a percentage of funds under management were 7% and rose to around 18% in the 1H of FY24, explains the broker.

The analysts admire management's performance track record, organic growth trends, and the global distribution pipeline.

Overweight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.81
If GQG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS adjusts forecasts for GQG Partners by -2.2% for FY24 and -4.7% for FY25 and notes its 1H24 forecasts are around 5%-6% above consensus estimates.

Buy rating and $3.25 target unchanged.

GQG Partners are due to report earnings on August 16.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.31
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 11.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates HUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS adjusts earnings forecasts for Hub24 by -0.5% in FY24 and -2.1% for FY25.

Neutral rating and $41 target unchanged.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $47.89 Difference: minus $6.89 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $45.74, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

In August, Iperionx will commence the first full-scale titanium deoxidation production run at the new Titanium Production Facility in Virginia, highlights Bell Potter.

This production should help de-risk the company's proprietary Hydrogen Assisted Metallothermic Reduction process to initial commercial rates of 125tpa, from a circa 1.5tpa industrial-scale pilot facility, explains the broker.

Bell Potter notes Iperionx has potential to disrupt the incumbent titanium supply chain through materially lowering production costs and manufacturing waste.

The Speculative Buy rating and $3.85 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.20 Difference: $1.65
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JBH as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Post a sizeable rally in the shares, UBS  has decided to downgrade JB Hi-Fi to Sell from Neutral, arguing the PE multiple expansion has gone too far.

The broker "blames" (so to speak) investor optimism regarding revenue growth acceleration in computer & telco products due to AI capabilities.

As a result, the broker observes the shares are trading well above historical levels and average premiums to key discretionary peers.

UBS's EPS estimates sit -4%/-3% below consensus for FY24/25 respectively. Target price has gained $1 to $60. Also remarkable: current EPS trajectory in UBS forecasts implies nil growth in FY25 vis a vis FY24.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $67.30 Difference: minus $7.3 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $60.02, suggesting downside of -9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates JLG as Hold (3) -

Given ongoing mild weather and the property claims backdrop, Bell Potter stays Hold-rated for Johns Lyng coming into FY24 results, despite clear upside risks.

The largest catalyst at the results, in the broker's view, turns on whether the company can exceed $130m of 2H revenue in the US
(a 16% half-on-half rise), along with a moderate level of margin recovery in the 2H compared to the 1H.

The broker's target rises to $6.30 from $6.20 on a financial model roll-forward. Hold retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $0.24
If JLG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JLG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie considered the 2Q24 results of FirstService Corp, a US competitor to Johns Lyng and highlighted its revenue declined -6% year-on-year due to lower storm-related claims, with the EBITDA margin down -44bps to 10.5%.

The broker expects Johns Lyng USA to focus on executing its US strategy, with the Allstate panel win as a positive growth catalyst.

Management's FY24 guidance implies 18.5% revenue growth and 21.6% EBITDA growth with no changes to the analyst's forecasts.

Outperform and $7.40 target retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.06 Difference: $1.34
If JLG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

Kogan.com has pre-released FY24 financials and Citi analysts, in an early response, comment the basic numbers appear to be in-line with the broker's own projections.

The broker observes product revenue returned to growth in Q4 (+7%) while Kogan First gross sales rebounded in Q4; subscriber numbers took another leg up.

Citi remains concerned about mounting pressures from increasing competition. The broker reports Web traffic for Kogan declined by -26% in July thus far.

Citi retains its Sell rating. Target $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.35 Difference: $0.45
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.17, suggesting upside of 67.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley sees few growth options within its coverage of asset managers on the ASX.

While Underweight-rated Magellan Financial looks closer to a turnaround on flows than Platinum Asset Management (also Underweight), the broker sees better value elsewhere, with the preferred exposure being GQG Partners.

The target price for Magellan Financial increases to $8.50 from $7.85. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $9.76 Difference: minus $1.26 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.15, suggesting downside of -7.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Production and costs in the 4Q for Mineral Resources were generally in line with management guidance and Bell Potter's expectations. Pricing for commodities was slightly stronger-than-expected.

Management also reported good progress on completing the Onslow Iron Project, highlight the analysts.

Bell Potter's target falls to $80 from $84 mainly because the broker lowers its long-term iron ore price forecast to US$95/t from US$100/t. The Buy rating is kept.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $26.33
If MIN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MIN as Buy (1) -

Citi dissects the Mineral Resources June quarter earnings call with the market focused on what is required for Onslow to achieve 50mt p.a. and the iron ore prepay, and lithium with no new supply coming on stream.

Net debt is reported at $4.4bn, with expectations of peaking leverage in the next 18 months, the broker highlights.

Citi revises forecasts for higher capex and the removal of Train 3 and 4 from estimates, reducing the EBITDA estimate by -12% for FY25.

The target price is reduced to $70 from $80 and the Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $70.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $16.33
If MIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MIN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie views the 4Q24 results from Mineral Resources as better than expected for sales, costs, and prices, but a mixed picture for production.

The company reported higher lithium prices and management pointed to supply issues with Train 3 sidelines until the market recovers.

Iron-ore production came in lower than the broker's forecasts at Pilbara and Yilgarn, which was offset by maiden production at Onslow, and sales were 5% better than consensus and 6% ahead of the analyst's estimates.

The broker revises EPS forecasts by -9% for FY24 and -2% for FY25 and the target price is lowered -2% to $60.

Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $6.33
If MIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MIN as Overweight (1) -

After updating forecasts for Mineral Resources following 4Q operational results, Morgan Stanley maintains its Overweight rating and $79 target. Attractive sector view. 

Both iron ore and lithium shipments were in line with consensus forecasts, while iron ore pricing was a 10% beat on grade control and lump mix, explain the analysts.

The broker likes the company's ramping iron ore volumes via the comparatively lower-cost Onslow Iron project, and potential upside for the Mining Services business.

Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $25.33
If MIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MIN as Add (1) -

Fourth quarter shipments at Mt Marion, Bald Hill and the Pilbara Iron Ore Hub met expectations and guidance, notes Morgans, but shipments from Wodgina and the Yilgarn Hub fell just short of expectations.

The analysts were impressed by the average price of US$970/t achieved across all three lithium mines (much higher than peers) and the US$97/t across the company's iron ore mines.

For the near-term, the broker is bearish on lithium and iron ore markets, though likes the growth prospects for Mineral Resources' overall business. The Add rating is maintained and the target falls to $67 from $69.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $13.33
If MIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Accumulate (2) -

Mineral Resources' June-quarter report outpaced consensus' and Ord Minnett's forecasts for lithium and iron-ore shipments and pricing. 

Spodumene shipments outpaced by 5% and pricing outpaced by 2%.Iron-ore shipments outpaced by 5% and pricing outpaced by 11%.

The broker observes capital expenditure related to the Onslow expansion will continue to burn cash for the near to medium term, even after the mooted sale of its stake in Onslow's haul road; and expects the lithium price to remain subdued and debt to remain elevated. 

Accumulate rating retained. Target price eases to $60 from from $62.50

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $6.33
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

UBS continues to harbour concerns over the debt levels for Mineral Resources despite what the analyst described as "solid" 4Q24 results with FY24 shipments within guidance and costs broadly in line, but a softer realised price at Onslow iron.

Net debt was reported at $4.4bn, with cash at $0.9bn, reflecting a $600m iron ore prepayment.

Despite a good short-term outlook, the company remains highly leveraged to the cycle, with higher interest costs leading to EPS downgrades by more than -3% to -8% for FY24 through to FY26. 

Sell rating retained on valuation concerns with an unchanged $54 target price.

Mineral Resources is due to report FY24 results on August 29.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $0.33
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MIN as Sell (5) -

UBS continues to harbour concerns over the debt levels for Mineral Resources despite what the analyst described as "solid" 4Q24 results with FY24 shipments within guidance and costs broadly in line, but a softer realised price at Onslow iron.

Net debt was reported at $4.4bn, with cash at $0.9bn, reflecting a $600m iron ore prepayment.

Despite a good short-term outlook, the company remains highly leveraged to the cycle, with higher interest costs leading to EPS downgrades by more than -3% to -8% for FY24 through to FY26. 

Sell rating retained on valuation concerns with an unchanged $54 target price.

Mineral Resources is due to report FY24 results on August 29.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $53.67 Difference: $0.33
If MIN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.14, suggesting upside of 24.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Despite a soft 2Q for Metro Mining's shipping volumes, which negatively impacted unit costs, Shaw and Partners sees an "excellent" 2H outlook.

While June quarter production of 1.42mt was a record for the second quarter, it fell short of management's production target due to unseasonal wet weather in April and a barge loading failure in May, explain the analysts.

In a conservative move, suggests the broker, 2024 sales guidance has been lowered to 6.0-6.4mt from 6-3-6.8mt.

Buy, High Risk rating. Target price 14c.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.094
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 204% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MND as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Monadelphous Group remains well positioned to grow its energy opportunities given the lack of project award announcements over the last few months.

The analyst emphasises energy represents around 20% of the overall work pipeline in western Australia over the next three years, with iron ore as little as half over the same period. Concerns over iron ore are over stated the broker highlights.

Citi forecasts revenue of $680m in FY24 from energy and 15% in FY25, including modification of the Pluto LNG Train 1 facility ($200m) over an expected 18month time frame.

Buy rating and $16.20 target unchanged.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $12.78 Difference: $3.42
If MND meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.82, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

 Morgan Stanley notes softer-than-expected policyholder growth has been offset by lower claims for Medibank Private in H1.

The broker believes these lower claims are a structural trend and will persist for the 2H.

Equal-Weight rating and $3.84 target retained. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.84 Current Price is $3.81 Difference: $0.03
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.92, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corp reported better than expected 2Q2024 production according to Citi and EBITDA of $2bn.

The broker is expecting an increase in production into the 2H2024 from Boddington, Penasquito and Ahafo as the company finishes maintenance works.

Management's messaging on capital allocation was perceived positively by the analyst including the $1bn buyback and around $250m debt reduction.

Citi lifts FY24 EBITDA by 2% and FY25 EBITDA by 4% based on the latest gold price forecasts.

Buy rated with an $87 target price, up from $69.

Target price is $87.00 Current Price is $71.20 Difference: $15.8
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEM as Outperform (1) -

Newmont Corp reported mixed all-in-sustaining costs for the 2Q2024, Macquarie highlights, while production of 1.61Moz of gold was 5% above consensus estimates and net profit of $853m was 54% better than the market's expectations.

The broker notes a greater confidence in the asset divestment process has triggered an earlier than expected $1bn share buyback by the end of 2025, with $250m worth of shares purchased.

Net debt was -4% lower than the market's forecasts and 2% better than the analyst's estimate.

Macquarie adjusts EPS forecasts by 16% for FY25 and accordingly lifts the target price to $85 from $81.

Unchanged Outperform rating.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $71.20 Difference: $13.8
If NEM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NHF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie observes the June visa statistics which are a leading indicator for nib Holdings' International Students Health Insurance segment.

The broker points to a -39% contraction in student visas versus the previous corresponding period due to a skew towards Indian students, while the International Workers Health Insurance segment grew 17%.

nib Holdings' workers product remains the cheapest among major insurers, Macquarie emphasises and notes the Australian government’s migration strategy may slow revenue growth in the immigration market over the medium term.

No changes to earnings forecasts.

Neutral rating and $7.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.23 Difference: $0.27
If NHF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.13, suggesting upside of 13.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

UBS believes the market will be looking to Orora's results on August 15 for indications on any ongoing risks in spirits destocking into FY25, impacting Saverglass and North American Distribution businesses.

Management has flagged overall manufacturing weakness and resulting volume/pricing softness, which has led the analyst to reduce FY25 earnings forecasts before interest and tax by -11%, some -10% below consensus estimates.

UBS lowers EPS forecasts by around -13% for FY25.

Neutral rating unchanged with the target price lowered to $2.16 from $2.56.

Target price is $2.16 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.11
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting upside of 23.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNV as Hold (3) -

PolyNovo recorded more strong revenue growth in the 2H, according to Bell Potter, making for a revenue compound growth rate in excess of 50% over the last two years. For FY24, US revenue from product sales increased by 49% on the previous corresponding period.

The broker now expects a maiden profit in FY24, along with positive cash flow from operations and positive free cash flow.

Bell Potter raises its target for PolyNovo to $2.52 from $2.05. Hold.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If PNV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley sees few growth options within its coverage of asset managers on the ASX and downgrades Perpetual to Equal-weight from Overweight. The price target is reduced by -$2.00 to $22.40. Industry view is In-Line.

The 4Q investment performance worsened compared to Q3 and the broker lowers its earnings forecasts, anticipating a prolonged recovery for inflows in Investments.

Following a figure of -8.5% of FY24 net outflows as a percentage of funds under management (FUM), and -13% annualised in H2, the analysts now see almost -10% of outflows in FY25.

Target price is $22.40 Current Price is $22.13 Difference: $0.27
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.65, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PTM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley sees few growth options within its coverage of asset managers on the ASX.

Underweight-rated Magellan Financial looks closer to a turnaround on flows than Platinum Asset Management (also Underweight), notes the broker, whose preferred exposure is GQG Partners.

In reference to Platinum Asset Management, the analysts point out strong cost management on its own does not usually lead to outperformance for asset manager stocks. Recent investment team turnover is seen as a further negative factor.

The target for Platinum Asset Management falls to 90c from $1.12. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If PTM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PTM as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS updates EPS forecasts for Platinum Asset Management by 16.8% for FY24 and -12% for FY25.

The target price is lowered to $1.05 from $1.10. Platinum Asset Management is due to report earnings on August 28.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0
If PTM meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.01, suggesting downside of -3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the broader outperformance from the Australian insurance and diversified financials over the past three months.

Looking to the August reporting season the broker remains upbeat and envisages upside surprises to earnings results and consensus forecasts.

UBS adjusts earnings forecasts for Pexa Group by -5.9% in FY24 and -4.4% in FY25 and its forecast for FY24 EBITDA is some 2% above consensus.

Buy rating and $16 target unchanged.

Pexa Group is due to report earnings on August 31.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.74 Difference: $2.26
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.61, suggesting upside of 12.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

Qoria's record June-quarter result sharply outpaced Ord Minnett's forecasts thanks to solid growth in net annual recurring revenue compared with strong cost control.

Free cash flow proved a miss due to cash receipt timing.

The company is expected to announce a $10m expansion of its Ashgrove debt facility to fund growth and the broker doubts K1 NBIO bid will proceed.

Buy rating retained. Target price falls to 43c from 51c as the broker removes its M&A premium, doubting a second K1 bid will eventuate.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.065
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates REH as Neutral (3) -

Citi reviews the outlook for A&NZ building products companies on the back of deferred interest rate cuts alongside Australian housing starts and approvals at decade lows.

Historically rate cuts work with a six-to-twelve month lag to stimulate activity levels, the analyst states, noting a pickup or inflection point in activity levels may not be evident until well into FY26.

Due to the changes in the outlook for interest rates and construction activity, Citi lowers the EBITDA earnings forecasts for Reece by -5% to -6% for FY25 to FY26.

The target price is lowered to $26.90. Neutral rated.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $26.98 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting downside of -22.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates REH as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley highlights declines are ongoing for detached housing starts data in Australia, which will likely place pressure on construction activity and materials demand through the 2H of 2024 and into 2025.

The prior significant work pipeline is being eroded, note the analysts.

The broker anticipates an earnings hit for Reece at results on August 19, noting 44% of revenues derive from Australia and the weak New Zealand market.

The Underweight rating and $19 target are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $26.98 Difference: minus $7.98 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.03, suggesting downside of -22.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RPL as Buy (1) -

Regal Partners has purchased a 40% ($12m) holding in Argyle Group, which manages water entitlements and boasts $1.4bn in funds under management.

This increases Regal Partners' exposure to water assets (it also holds Kilter Rural) and supports expansion of its alternative asset capability, observes Ord Minnett.

Management reaffirmed FUM, flows and performance-fee guidance. The deal is expected to be cash funded and the broker expects it will be EPS accretive in 2024.

EPS forecasts rise 4% to 8% over 2024, 2025 and 2026 and the company is expected to post a compound annual growth rate of 34% over three years.

Buy rating retained. Target price edges up to $4.30 from $4.20.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $0.56
If RPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.58, suggesting upside of 22.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Outperform (1) -

Regis Resources reported previously released 4Q24 production of 106.4koz including all-in-sustaining costs of $2,247oz, which came in slightly better than consensus estimates and Macquarie's expectations.

The company reported 4Q24 cash and bullion of $295m, up $101m and is fully unhedged, the broker notes.

Management's FY25 guidance was softer than the analyst expected, with production forecast at 350-380koz and all-in-sustaining costs at $2,440-$2,740oz which is higher than anticipated.

Macquarie adjusts earnings forecasts by -33% for FY25 EPS estimate.

The target price is lowered by -7% to $2.70. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $1.035
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

While 4Q gold production beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley and consensus by 10% and 7%, respectively, management's FY25 guidance was for lower production and higher costs than both parties expected.

FY25 guidance is for group production of 350-380koz and costs (AISC) of between $2,440-2,740/oz. Costs at both Duketon A and Tropicana exceeded forecasts by consensus and the broker.

The target falls to $1.90 from $2.10 and the Overweight rating remains. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.67 Difference: $0.235
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.07, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SFR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes Sandfire Resources reported 4Q24 copper production of 26.8kt in line with consensus forecasts and zinc production of 21.7kt which was -10% below market expectations with 1,169koz of silver, some 14% higher than consensus.

Management's FY25 production guidance was mixed, with lead/silver some 6% to 7%, respectively, better than expected, and copper/zinc below market consensus by -3% to -5%, respectively.

The broker highlights the significant reduction in net debt by -$85m on the quarter to $396m at the end of 4Q24.

Macquarie adjusts EPS estimates by -6% for FY24 and -17% for FY25 for the guidance changes and higher costs at Matsa and Motheo.

The target price is reduced by -11% to $10. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.26 Difference: $1.74
If SFR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.14, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Add (1) -

Queensland metallurgical coal assets now represent circa 65% of Morgans' valuation for Whitehaven Coal.

Following 4Q results, the broker is encouraged by a solid overall Queensland integration to-date, and believes the market is wary ahead of key FY25 guidance for these assets on August 22 at FY24 results.

Production for the quarter revealed a slight beat against the broker's NSW forecast and a slight Queensland miss on temporary issues.

Target eases to $10.25 from $10.30. Add retained.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $7.80 Difference: $2.45
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.56, suggesting upside of 25.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources