Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates ALU as Hold (3) -

Having knocked back an offer from US-based Autodesk in mid-2021 for $38.50 per share, this time around the board at Altium has accepted the $68.50 per share in cash offering from Renesas.

Bell Potter describes the latest "a knock out bid". Autodesk simply doesn't have the balance sheet to counter this premium set-up, the broker believes.

In addition, Bell Potter notes Renesas and Altium already have a commercial relationship, Renesas shifted to standardised development of all printed-circuit board (PCB) design on the Altium 365 cloud-based platform last year.

Because nothing is 100% guaranteed in life, the broker's fresh price target sits under the accepted offer price, at $66.75. Hold.

Target price is $66.75 Current Price is $66.00 Difference: $0.75
If ALU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.36, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALU as Overweight (1) -

Japanese company Renesas Electronics has agreed to acquire Altium for $9.1bn in an all-cash offer. The deal reflects a per share price of $68.50, representing a 34% premium. 

While Altium's board has already signed a binding agreement, Morgan Stanley points out shareholder and regulatory approvals still need to be secured.

The broker feels this bid could play into its bull case scenario, where Altium reaches $65 per share through industry consolidation. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $50.00 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $66.00 Difference: minus $16 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $55.36, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALU as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett raises its target for Altium to $68.50 to align with the offer price (in cash) within the binding scheme implementation agreement announced yesterday with Japanese company Renesas. The Hold rating is maintained.

Altium looks certain to be acquired, suggests the broker, as the transaction has been unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both parties. The offer price represents a 39% premium to Altium's one-month volume-weighted average price prior to the announcement.

Target price is $68.50 Current Price is $66.00 Difference: $2.5
If ALU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $55.36, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALU as Neutral (3) -

Altium has entered a scheme of implementation agreement with its strategic partner Renesas.

Under the agreement, Renesas will buy 100% of Altium's shares for $68.50 - a 31% premium to the company's all-time closing share-price high in February.

The interim dividend will still be paid and will not be deducted from the offer.

Neutral rating and $40.60 target price retained.

Target price is $40.60 Current Price is $66.00 Difference: minus $25.4 (current price is over target).
If ALU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $55.36, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Sell (5) -

On full examination of AMP's FY23 result, UBS raises the target price to 93c while retaining a Sell rating.

The broker says the result, which outpaced consensus forecasts, offers comfort around the final capital return and cost execution and expects the buyback will continue to support the share price for now.

The broker still predicts negative net flows and falling earnings across most divisions but raises the target price given the company appears to be on track to meet its cost-reduction targets

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $1.12 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting downside of -0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Outperform (1) -

Arena REIT reported earnings modestly below Macquarie's forecast, driven by slightly lower net property income. FY24 dividend guidance of 17.4cps is reaffirmed, in line with the broker.

After the development yield on cost bottomed last June at 5.4%, development returns have started to improve, the broker notes. Looking forward, current development projects are being priced at a yield on cost of 6.25-6.50%, which will result in continued improvement.

Macquarie expects this will be the key focus of growth for the REIT, supplemented by underlying escalators including CPI. The broker remains attracted to total returns offered, with limited risk given strong tenant base, defensive development pipeline and long WALE.

Target falls to $3.96 from $4.11, Outperform retained.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.49
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Equal-weight (3) -

Ahead of releasing first half results, BHP Group has announced a combined exceptional items expectation of -US$6.6bn. This includes provisions of -US$3.1bn for Samarco, explains Morgan Stanley, now capturing potential settlement and damages payments. 

Details of a payment schedule for Samarco payments has not yet been provided, and the broker points out this will determine net debt impacts, and therefore BHP Group's ability to pursue inorganic growth or make dividend payments. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $45.75 are retained. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $45.75 Current Price is $45.17 Difference: $0.58
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.96, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BHP as Hold (3) -

BHP Group is yet to release 1H results, scheduled for February 20. Yesterday, the company flagged two large impairments, which will not impact underlying 1H results (apart from dividend considerations), but will be recognised as exceptional items, explains Morgans.

The impairments are: a -US$2.5bn (post-tax) impairment against the Western Australia Nickel carrying value (Nickel West and West Musgrave); and a -US$3.2bn (post-tax) impairment for an increase in the Samarco Dam Failure provision.

The Hold rating and $49 target are maintained.

Target price is $49.00 Current Price is $45.17 Difference: $3.83
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $46.96, suggesting upside of 2.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Shares in Beacon Lighting do not look cheap, but Citi's Top Pick continues to show off its quality features, on the broker's own assessment.

The Buy rating remains firmly in place because Citi continues to see room for further positive surprises. The broker's price target shifts to $3.22 from $2.65 target.

Judging from today's commentary, an improving housing cycle remains the key driver and the cycle this time might stick around for longer, the broker suggests.

There still could be more upside from stronger sales and/or a firmer gross margin, the broker suggests. The one headwind on the horizon, or so it appears, are difficulties with finding available sites with management aiming to roll out 4-6 new stores in each half year period.

A conservative Citi is forecasting 4 new stores for the current half.

Target price is $3.22 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.42
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BLX as Add (1) -

Beacon Lighting is a stock for investors to have in their portfolios, suggests Morgans, after noting from 1H results the company's investment in development of the Trade business is now paying off.

An acceleration for Trade offset a reduction in Retail sales in the period, explain the analysts, resulting in a beat against forecasts for profit by the broker and consensus of 6% and 9%, respectively.

Even though Trade sales are at a lower margin than Retail, the gross margin widened by 140bps due to better prices from suppliers and lower freight rates, points out the broker.

The target jumps to $3.20 from $2.50 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.4
If BLX meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CIP as Hold (3) -

Ongoing strength in the industrial leasing environment was evident in Centuria Industrial REIT's 1H results, according to Morgans.

Underpinned by strong tenant demand and low vacancy rates in key infill markets, explains the analyst, releasing spreads widened by 51% compared to 30% across FY23.

Impacts from divestments were offset by 6% growth in like-for-like income, observes the broker, resulting in flat funds from operations (FFO) compared to the previous corresponding period.

Management upgraded FY24 FFO to 17.2cpu from 17.0cpu, based upon 6% growth in net operating income. DPS guidance was retained at 16cpu.

The target rises to $3.57 from $3.36. Hold.

Target price is $3.57 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $0.19
If CIP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.47, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia's first half earnings were 5% better than Macquarie's expectations. Controllable yield was better than expected.

FY24 cost guidance is reaffirmed, and the broker notes the group has maintained its revenue share despite its listings coverage being lower than that of REA Group ((REA)). Listings matter, Macquarie suggests, but revenue matters more.

Domain is capturing greater leverage from an improving listings market and valuation is also supportive, but the broker's concern remains around further investment required. Neutral retained, with a preference for REA.

Target rises to $3.56 fromn $3.49.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: $0.02
If DHG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DHG as Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight (5) -

Having been left disappointed by Domain Holdings Australia's first half result, Morgan Stanley has lowered its full year earnings forecasts by -5-12% through to FY26, and its earnings per share forecasts by -11-22%. 

As the broker explains, with listings surging in the Sydney and Melbourne markets in the fourth quarter, Domain Holdings Australia should have been well-positioned to deliver surprise upside. 

Morgan Stanley believes Domain Holdings Australia is being challenged by a tougher competitive landscape. The broker expects should competition intensify, or new disruptors emerge, that Domain Holdings Australia's position would be vulnerable.

The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight and the target price decreases to $2.80 from $3.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DHG as Lighten (4) -

Commenting on Wednesday's 1H result for Domain Holdings Australia, Ord Minnett notes steep price hikes delivered strong revenues but gains are coming at the expense of the company's long-term competitive position.

Revenue for the residential segment (the source of the company's economic moat) rose by 16%, largely driven by a 12% average price increase, explains the analyst.

The broker is concerned by a -2% decline in new for-sale listings, compared to the 4% increase revealed in competitor REA Group's ((REA)) recent result.

The Lighten rating and $2.50 target are maintained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.54 Difference: minus $1.04 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 1.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DTL as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Despite a first half result from Data#3 that missed the mark for Morgan Stanley, the broker retains its positive outlook on the stock. Earnings were -5% below Morgan Stanley's forecasts amid weaker gross margins.

The broker expects some investors were looking for greater stabilisation from the result, but retains its position on longer-term margin stabilisation and expansion.

Data#3 explained the company is seeing a slowdown only in the networking category and the rest of the business continues to report increased tender activity.

The rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $8.10 from $8.20.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If DTL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DTL as Buy (1) -

On full examination, Data#3's December-half result missed consensus forecasts by -6% and UBS by -2%, confirming the broker's view that last month's profit upgrade was driven by higher interest income rather than operational growth.

The broker retains the faith, highlighting the company's three-year gross profit/EBIT compound annual growth rates of 10% and 14%.

FY24 guidance appears to be meet the broker's estimates on net profit and dividend.

Product gross profit rose, albeit less than the broker expected, and operating expenditure outpaced gross profit by 1%.

UBS expects the company is likely to remain supported given recent growth in tender activity and appreciates the company's relatively defensive position and strong cash-flow profile.

Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $8.50 from $8.20 to reflect higher interest revenue assumptions.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.50 Difference: $0
If DTL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FBU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett cuts its FY24 operating earnings forecast for Fletcher Building by -20% following 1H results and a FY24 guidance downgrade.

The group earnings margin was 6%, down from 8% in the previous corresponding period, reflecting a mix shift to end-customers with more exposure to commercial and infrastructure, compared to the higher margin residential sector.

However, the broker expects a gradual recovery in the residential sector from FY25 and mid-to long-term forecasts are barely changed. 

The target rises to $5.70 from $5.50. Buy.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $2.3
If FBU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 36.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Goodman Group's H1 proved a better-than-anticipated event, and Citi continues to see further room for upside. The broker believes there's ongoing potential for upside through datacentres, margin improvement, a general re-rating for the sector globally, as well as through index inclusion for the shares (FTSE EPRA Global Property Index, as highlighted recently).

The pipeline for developing data centres has grown to 4.0GW, of which an estimated 90% is from brownfield developments, suggests the broker. Margins for these projects are 60%-80%, which is much higher than the traditional 35%-45% from traditional warehousing.

Citi argues Goodman Group still has multiple options to extract value from its expanding pipeline, leading to the statement: "we see significant upside to future earnings which is not fully captured in consensus expectations".

Higher forecasts have pushed up the broker's target to $32.50 (was $25.50). Buy.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $28.47 Difference: $4.03
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

Goodman Group's FY24 earnings growth guidance has been upgraded to 11% from 9%. Macquarie sits at 12%, given a track record of beating at the full-year result.

Data centres are now 37% of work in progress -- a greater than expected increase from 25% in September -- and data centres could eventually compose 50% of the development portfolio, the broker notes.

Macquarie estimates that data centres could generate development margins 60% or higher, roughly double the typical margin on warehouses.

Despite the re-rate in Goodman's multiple to 27x FY24 earnings, the stock remains attractive relative to the average forward multiple of 40x of the competitor peer group, the broker notes. Target rises to $31.81 from $26.52, Outperform retained.

Target price is $31.81 Current Price is $28.47 Difference: $3.34
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Following a sizeable beat from Goodman Group in the first half, with the company delivering earnings per share of 59.2 cents, it has lifted its full year guidance to 11% growth from a previous 9% growth.

Morgan Stanley predicts the company can achieve 13% growth over the year. 

The broker points out yield on cost on commencements was 6.9%, and Goodman Group is targeting more than 7% in new industrial feasibilities moving forward. Morgan Stanley sees this as providing confidence around future development margins. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $31.35 from $28.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $31.35 Current Price is $28.47 Difference: $2.88
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMG as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

UBS has downgraded Goodman Group to Neutral from Buy while revising its price target upwards to $29.25 from $26.50. The interim financial performance proved better-than-forecast and management upgraded FY24 guidance.

UBS is by no means not denying things look rosy for Goodman Group, and the valuation uplift seems justified, "reasonable relative to superior growth", but the broker also spies a higher risk profile is emerging.

To balance positives with negatives, UBS thinks moving to Neutral seems but the appropriate decision to make. Forecasts have been upgraded.

Target price is $29.25 Current Price is $28.47 Difference: $0.78
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.14, suggesting downside of -2.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNC as Hold (3) -

Following GrainCorp's AGM, Ord Minnett notes profitability is normalising as expected. FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance reflects above-average volumes are abating, explains the analyst.

The Hold rating and $7.40 target are unchanged. The broker feels shares are fairly valued given a -12% fall after the market, perhaps belatedly, realised good times are transient.

The broker bases its valuation on an average year with average conditions, partly because the company utilises volume-based insurance.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $0.04
If GNC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.66, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HPI as Add (1) -

Portfolio metrics for Hotel Property Investments were stable in the 1H, notes Morgans, with rental income increasing by 3.4% on the previous corresponding period, while adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) fell by -2%.

Management reiterated FY24 dividend guidance of 19cpu.

Leasing risk remains minimal, explains Morgans, with around 70% of leases linked to CPI and 100% occupancy of the 61 assets in the portfolio, which is valued at $1.26bn.

The Add rating is retained and the target eases to $3.65 from $3.67.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.71
If HPI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HPI as Hold (3) -

As expected by Ord Minnett, higher debt costs offset 3.4% rent growth for Hotel Property Investments in the 1H. Portfolio metrics are considered sound with 100% occupancy and a long weighted-average-lease term of 9.5 years.

Adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) fell by -2.1% and FY24 distribution guidance was maintained. The broker retains its Hold rating and increases its target to $3.40 from $3.30 largely due to the time value of money.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.46
If HPI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IEL as Neutral (3) -

IDP Education's adjusted earnings came in 17% ahead of Macquarie, due mainly to student placements, partially offset by IELTs.

The regulatory impact of reducing net migration into Australia and Canada will affect the IELTS business, the broker notes, and partially the student placement business.

Volumes in India fell -31%, reflecting increased competition, lower repeat testing rates for Canada, and weaker industry conditions. Management noted pricing is remaining rational for now and expects a price increase into FY25.

This remains Macquarie's key concern for the investment thesis. Target falls to $22 from $26 on softer IELTs, Neutral retained.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.99 Difference: $2.01
If IEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.78, suggesting upside of 20.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

UBS observes James Hardie Industries' competitor US-listed LP Building Solutions has posted a -15% decline in sliding volumes in the December quarter over the previous corresponding period, but this represented normal seasonal trading patterns, according to management, and annual revenue met LP management's guidance for a -10% sales decline. 

UBS observes the company has since raised prices 5% to 8% and 2024 sales guidance implies high single digit volume growth, leading UBS to surmise James Hardie Industries's forecasts could be conservative.

UBS says the read-through suggests the broker's forecasts are broadly on track. Buy rating and $66.50 target price retained.

Target price is $66.50 Current Price is $56.99 Difference: $9.51
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $62.22, suggesting upside of 8.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MFG as Sell (5) -

Citi  analysts saw Magellan Financial releasing 1H24 results that proved largely in line, ex investment gains. The broker now suggests investors' focus will shift to the new MD, strategic priorities, and capital.

Citi does believe the risk for further disappointment from the troubled asset manager has diminished, though the transitory nature likely means the turnaround will be a prolonged process, the broker argues.

Short-term forecasts went up, followed by small decreases in EPS forecasts for FY25 an FY26. Target remains $8.10. Citi does not waver from its Sell rating.

At face value, Magellan Financial's result looks like a strong beat to market expectations; but the analysts explain it is driven by investment fund capital gains, which are usually lumpy in nature.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MFG as Underperform (5) -

Magellan Financial's first half profit came in 43% ahead of expectations, however this was largely driven by $38m of realised gains on the sale of fund investments, Macquarie notes. The funds management result was broadly in line.

FY24 expense guidance remains unchanged, but expected to be at the top end. Negative trends are stabilising, but Macquarie does not  believe the remaining risks are being appropriately reflected in the current multiple.

Capital returns are off the table for now, with acquisitions more likely. Additional capital could also be sourced from fund investments, the broker notes, but it will take multiple years for this to play out.

Target rises to $8.00 from $7.60, Underperform retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: minus $1.32 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -

Magellan Financial has appointed Chuck Thompson, previously of Henderson, to oversee the intended shift of its US platform to a multi-boutique business. The new focus for the US operations, says Morgan Stanley, is reminiscent of success Thompson enjoyed at Henderson.

The broker points out the competitive market and need for further investment, and expects investors will need to be convinced. However, the company retains a strong balance sheet to deploy for growth.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.85 from $6.65. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Magellan Financial Group’s 1H results were in line with Morgans' forecasts. While earnings are still finding a “base level”, and mild net outflows continue, the broker feels a base can be reached in FY24/25.

The target rises to $9.67 from $9.01 and the Hold rating is unchanged.

Management reiterated FY24 Funds Management expense guidance, and noted excess capital ($500m) will be directed to growth initiatives. These include strategic acquisition options, and around $200m for new seed capital capacity.

Target price is $9.67 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $0.35
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -

Following 1H results for Magellan Financial, Ord Minnett continues to forecast a decline in pre-tax profits of around -10% per year over the medium-term due largely to redemptions by investors as a result of sub par investment performance.

Pre-tax profits in the 1H fell by -8% compared to the previous corresponding period, a slightly worse outcome than the broker had forecast.

Management expressed a desire to acquire minority stakes in small US-based boutiques with strategies uncorrelated to existing funds management activities.

The Hold rating and target price of $9.60 are retained.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $0.28
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MFG as Buy (1) -

Magellan Financial's December-half result met consensus forecasts but UBS says the company's plans to release the majority of fund investments appears to have been largely overlooked.

The broker says the move will yield liquid surplus capital in excess of $500m. About $200m of that is to be reinvested into more productive seed investments and the company is keeping $300m aside for its strategic M&A war chest, says UBS.

Industry costs are rising and management narrowed cost guidance towards the upper end of the guidance range.

EPS forecasts jump 29% in FY24 and fall -4% in FY25 to reflect higher fee margin and performance fee; lower dividend income on fund investments following business sales; the higher cost outlook; a flat forecast for FY25; and a likely temporary suspension of the buyback.

Buy rating retained. Target price is steady at $10.25.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.32 Difference: $0.93
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting downside of -5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -

In the wake of Maas Group's "solid" result, Macquarie notes FY24 earnings guidance and capital recycling targets are reaffirmed. Cash generation improved strongly and remains a key focus.

Maas has since acquired three hard rock quarries in Victoria which are complementary to Dandy's existing footprint which creates significant synergy opportunities, the broker suggests.

To drive a re-rate, Macquarie believes management needs to build a track record of delivering on guidance, sustaining organic growth, maintaining leverage in target range or below, and delivering on capital recycling targets.

Outperform and $4.55 target retained.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.6
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MGH as Add (1) -

First half results for Maas Group were a marginal beat against the consensus forecast and in line with Morgans estimate. 

Civil Construction and Hire fell -6% short of consensus expectations, with electrical service revenue declining half-on-half, explains the analyst. Construction Materials beat the consensus estimate by 7% on the back of strong quarry markets.

While management announced the acquisition of a further $80m of construction material assets in Victoria, and additional industrial land purchases in NSW, net debt was unchanged points out the broker.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $4.35 from $4.05 largely due to Morgans applying a higher multiple to align with peers.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.95 Difference: $0.4
If MGH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NHF as Equal-weight (3) -

With nib Holdings set to report on its first half in coming weeks, Morgan Stanley is anticipating arhi net policyholder growth of 3% for the period, relative to the company's full year guidance of 3-4%. 

News on premium increases will not be announced until late April, but early reports suggest the government has rejected initial requests for increases up to 6%. 

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $8.15 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $8.15 Current Price is $8.04 Difference: $0.11
If NHF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.28, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Neutral (3) -

NRW Holdings' result saw headline financials largely in line to above Macquarie's forecasts, while free cash flow was weaker than expected. The interim dividend of 6.5c is 30% above the broker's expectation.

Earnings margins rose to 6.4% year on year as wage and cost pressures were incorporated into contracts.

FY24 guidance is maintained, implying margin growth. Macquarie notes all of FY24 and much of FY25 revenue is already secured and the pipeline remains robust.

Neutral and $2.70 target retained.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NWH as Buy (1) -

NRW Holdings' December-half earnings growth beat consensus forecasts by 3% and UBS's forecast by 5%, thanks to strong margin growth (margins hit their highest since June 30, 2020).

The broker sheets this back to better project delivery, particularly within Primero.

UBS upgrades earnings (EBITA) forecasts, outpacing guidance, which the broker considers conservative.

The broker highlights the company's positive operating environment, observing the capital expenditure cycle underpins its three-year EPS compound annual growth rate forecast of 12%.

Buy rating and $3.15 target price retained.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.31
If NWH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

With risks now appearing more balanced to Morgan Stanley, the broker has lowered its rating on Origin Energy, as the company's earnings and deleveraging cycle peaks.

The company delivered a first half result and full guidance ahead of the broker's expectations, but the numbers do imply a moderating run rate into FY25.

Alongside peaking earnings and investment in Octopus Energy, Morgan Stanley expects Origin Energy can lift its distribution payout modestly over FY24 and FY25, but that gearing may be at the upper end by FY26.

The rating is downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight and the target price of $8.88 is retained. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $8.88 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $0.1
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORG as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses a "strong" 1H result for Origin Energy and management upgraded FY24 guidance for the utility business by 13%. The LNG gas export business is also tracking ahead of the analyst's expectation.

The broker's longer-term forecasts are little changed with earnings (EBITDA) expected to fall by around -30% in the next three years from FY25 on weaker electricity and LNG prices.

A 27.5c interim dividend was declared and buybacks are unlikely, suggests Ord Minnett, given the large development pipeline.

The Hold rating and $9 target are unchanged.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $0.22
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy's December-half result outpaced consensus by 11% and UBS by 5% thanks to strong performances across both electricity and gas.

UBS says the result places the division in a position to retain sustainable earnings (EBITDA) going forward.

The dividend was a cracker and management has promised to publish a new distribution policy at its investor meeting in April/May, and UBS expects this will yield a higher payout ratio of 40% to 70% of free cash fash flow.

The broker also expects Eraring can be retired profitably over FY26 to FY28 thanks to its battery investments and underwriting renewable offtake. Not only that, but Eraring's retirement skews earnings risk to the upside, suggests UBS.

Origin Energy is investing in two more high-returning grid-scale batteries in 2024 at a cost of -$1.4bn.

EPS forecasts rise 3%-17% across FY24 to FY26. Target price rises to $10 from $9.60.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.78 Difference: $1.22
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.08, suggesting upside of 4.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORI as Outperform (1) -

An update from Orica confirmed positive momentum continuing in FY24, with operational strength offsetting manufacturing turnarounds. The company is seeing strength across all geographies, underpinned by an ongoing focus on pricing power and tech adoption.

Balance sheet capacity is evident, Macquarie notes, and the Deer Park sale reduces leverage, leaving room for further bolt-on acquisitions.

Target rises to $19.00 from $17.97, Outperform retained.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $2.18
If ORI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.94, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ORI as Overweight (1) -

A positive start to the year from Orica, says Morgan Stanley, with the company receiving a welcome cash injection from the sale of Deer Park.

Stage one of the Deer Park land sale has completed, netting $260m, and net profits of $173m will be recognised as a significant item in the first half.

With the earnings outlook improving compared to the company's November update, and momentum continuing into the first four months of the new financial year, the broker suggests commentary from Orica suggests momentum will continue through the financial year. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $19.50 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $2.68
If ORI meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.94, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PME as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

At face value, there was hardly a gap between Pro Medicus' H1 revenues and market expectations, but Bell Potter highlights a deeper dive into the details has revealed softer than expected growth in exam revenues offset by once off hardware sales.

Underlying revenue growth thus came in at 24% only, signalling serious slowing of the pace in comparison with the years prior. Also not helping is the observation operating expenses grew faster than revenues - something not witnessed in a long while.

The broker also notes the EBIT margin declined by -150bps to 64.8%. While lauding the quality of this company, Bell Potter takes the view the shares are overpriced.

Hence the rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold. Target price unchanged at $75. Forecasts have fallen.

Target price is $75.00 Current Price is $94.00 Difference: minus $19 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Outperform (1) -

Pro Medicus' first half earnings were -4% below Macquarie on slightly lower revenue and higher costs. The company announced four contract wins in the half, however the first revenues from these are expected from the second half, later than assumed.

The pipeline remains robust, the broker notes, across various market segments. In addition to speed and functionality, Pro Medicus' cloud capabilities support recent market share gains. Macquarie sees cost savings from cloud deployment and a broadening of the pool of potential customers.

Outperform and $120 target retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $94.00 Difference: $26
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Hold (3) -

Prior to 1H results for Pro Medicus, Morgans felt a significant beat was required to sustain the current valuation. Shares then fell materially yesterday after profit and revenue ‘only’ met consensus expectations.

The earnings margin stayed relatively flat at 66%, thereby missing the consensus forecast for 68.9%, while the 18c dividend was short of the 19c predicted by the analysts.

The broker upgrades its organic customer volume growth assumptions, partially offset by higher near-term opex for an increased headcount to support new and near-term contracts. The target is increased to $85 from $74.

Morgans concedes it’s hard to find many negatives on the stock but retains a Hold rating on valuation.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $94.00 Difference: minus $9 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PME as Sell (5) -

Pro Medicus grew 1H underlying pre tax profit strongly (up by 29%) according to Ord Minnett, but revenue outside the company's core US market was slightly weaker-than-expected and staffing costs increased.

The broker continues to believe the company is materially overvalued and the market is likely underestimating competitive threats. Sell. The $34.50 target is maintained after the impact from a weaker US dollar is offset by the time value of money.

Revenue in the 1H grew by 27% largely due to contract wins in the US. An interim dividend of 18cps was declared.

Target price is $34.50 Current Price is $94.00 Difference: minus $59.5 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley cuts Ramsay Health Care's target price -7% to $49.60 from $51.60 heading into the company's December-half result to reflect the previously forecast longer-term earnings contribution from Sime Darby (recently sold).

After adjusting for the sale, EPS forecast rise 1% in FY24; 2% in FY25; and 1% in FY26, thanks mainly to lower forecast interest expense.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $49.60 Current Price is $51.78 Difference: minus $2.18 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.14, suggesting upside of 7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

At a glance, South32's December-half earnings outpaced consensus' forecasts by 7% and Morgan Stanley's by 5%.

Free cash flow, while meeting consensus, outpaced the broker by 21%.

A final investment decision disappointed the broker by -55% given a decision to distribute production more evenly across the mine life.

Lower grades (-5%), higher pre-production capital expenditure (up 10%), and lower sustaining capital expenditure (-25%) are still to be digested.

Overweight rating retained. Industry View: Attractive. Target price is $3.70, which compares with $3.85 on January 23.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $0.76
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates S32 as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses South32's 1H result was largely in line, but the negative surprise was around the announced sanctioning of the development of an underground mine at the Hermosa zinc/lead/silver project.

The broker is disappointed by management's projected return profile of only 12% (despite an assumption for the zinc price 28% above consensus), which leaves little margin for error when management attempts to execute the project.

More positively, the underlying unit cost performance was impressive at Worsley, Cannington, GEMCO and Cerro Matoso, according to the analysts.

The Add rating is unchanged and the target falls to $4.00 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: $1.06
If S32 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.67, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SVW as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett lifts its near-term revenue forecasts for Seven Group following stronger-than-expected 1H performances by WesTrac and Coates Hire. The target rises by 11% to $30.50.

Management upgraded FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance to mid to high-teen growth, but the 23c (fully franked) interim dividend was lower than expected. It's noted the company has leaned towards debt repayments over dividends since acquiring equity in Boral.

The broker reminds investors of the cyclical-nature of the company's industrial services and energy segments, and refrains from extrapolating current growth rates. Shares are considered overvalued and the Lighten rating remains.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $40.62 Difference: minus $10.12 (current price is over target).
If SVW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.23, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Hold rating retained with Bell Potter's target price slightly gaining to $4.25 from the prior $4.15. Telstra Group's H1 performance proved a 'miss', but it was only a minor disappointment.

The EBITDA margin fell slightly, and was thus co-responsible for the small miss, together with lower total income. Towards the bottom line, higher net finance costs and higher taxes caused a miss of around -4% versus the broker's net profit forecast (underlying).

FY24 EBITDA guidance was subjected to a small downgrade (is there a theme here?). Small downgrades have been applied to the broker's forecasts.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.35
If TLS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -

Telstra's earnings were slightly below Macquarie due to softer-than-expected Network Applications & Services revenues, partially
offset by higher mobile.

FY24 earnings guidance has been refined lower to $8.2-8.3bn from $8.2-8.4bn as a result. The dividend increased to 18c annualised as
expected.

Thanks to the Optus outage, and marketing efforts, Telstra enjoyed material subscriber growth in mobile. NBN margins increased to 10% when Macquarie had expected subdued margins due to market share losses.

Further price increase announcements would be positive, the broker suggests, but the next material step up for the stock would be contracted annual increases. Target rises to $4.40 from $4.23, Outperform retained.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.5
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLS as Overweight (1) -

At first glance, Telstra Group's December-half revenue met consensus forecasts and earnings (EBITDA) fell -0.5% shy, and Morgan Stanley says the result appears to support its Overweight rating.

Mobile proved a beat as did InfraCo. The company paid a first-half dividend of 9c, keeping it on track to meet consensus forecasts of 18c for FY24.

Target price is steady at $4.75. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.85
If TLS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TLS as Hold (3) -

Telstra Group's 1H results were in line with consensus expectations. Management left free cash flow guidance unchanged, but lowered guidance for earnings (EBITDA) by -1% due to slowing business demand for transformational projects.

Mobile growth was the standout, with earnings rising by 13% year-on-year. This performance exceeded earnings declines elsewhere, which the analyst notes largely occurred in Fixed Enterprise and Fixed Active Wholesale.

The interim dividend increased by 0.5cps to 9cps.

Morgans raises its FY24 EPS forecast by circa 5% largely due to a lower D&A charge, while the FY25 EPS estimate rises by 8.5% on stronger mobile growth and lower costs.

The Hold rating and $4.00 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.1
If TLS meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLS as Accumulate (2) -

Given a choice between stabilising fixed line earnings (not the case) and the current strong earnings momentum for mobile revealed in 1H results, Ord Minnett would take the latter any day.

The rate of fixed-line earnings (EBITDA) decline is accelerating (down -32% in the 1H), notes the analyst, whole mobile earnings jumped by 13% and are on track to surpass the $5bn level in FY24.

Management is aiming to achieve most of the -$500m savings target within the core fixed cost-out T25 program.

The company tightened FY24 earnings guidance to between $8.2bn and $8.3bn, lowering the upper-end by -$100m.

Overall, the broker views the results positively and maintains the Accumulate rating and $4.50 target.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLS as Buy (1) -

Telstra Group's December-half result pleased UBS, thanks to strong performances from Mobile and Infraco, with Amplitel also making a decent showing.

The icing on the cake was a margin surprise at Fixed C&SB.

The broker is confident the company will hit its earnings (EBITDA and EPS) compound annual growth rate targets in FY24, expecting this will underpin dividend growth.

Buy rating reiterated. Target price eases to $4.40 from $4.50 to reflect earnings adjustments.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.90 Difference: $0.5
If TLS meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TPW as Overweight (1) -

On full examination of Temple & Webster's December-half result, Morgan Stanley raises its target price to $12.25 from $9.25 and retains its Overweight rating.

To recap, the company's revenue outpaced consensus forecasts by 1% and earnings (EBITDA) outpaced by 23%. Gross margin widened by 180ps to 33.3%.

Sales growth is tracking towards the top-end of revenue targets, notes the broker, while sales have grown by 35% year-on-year in the 2H, up to February 11. Management reiterated FY24 guidance and longer-term targets.

Morgan Stanley believes Temple & Webster can meet its $1bn revenue target by FY26-28, and while less certain, also expects the company can meet earnings margin targets of 15% (currently 13% up from 12%).

The balance sheet is looking rosy and the broker suggests bolt-on M&A or an upgraded buyback represent good options. 

Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $12.25 Current Price is $12.05 Difference: $0.2
If TPW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 3.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Citi believes Treasury Wine Estates's H1 performance proved largely in line. Equally important: the broker believes it will calm investors' nerves.

One key catalyst on the horizon remains China removing tariffs. It can lead to further upgrades in consensus forecasts and could come as early as next month, the analysts suggest.

Citi needs to see more evidence of improvement in core operations before turning more positive. Neutral rating retained. Target lifts to $11.52 from $11.

The broker seems to have reduced dividend forecasts.

Target price is $11.52 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $0.09
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Outperform (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates' result showed Penfolds continues to deliver, Macquarie notes. Management flagged the potential to "take price" in Penfolds if the Chinese market reopens, given an anticipated supply/demand imbalance.

The broker sees significant growth opportunities for the DAOU brand in coming periods in the US, with optionality to expand sourcing into Napa.

An update on the lifting of Chinese tariffs on Australian wine, which Macquarie expects in March, is the next catalyst.

Target falls to $13.80 from $14.00, Outperform retained.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $2.37
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates' December-half result met consensus forecasts thanks to a top-line 8% beat from Penfolds, offset by softer margins in premium commercial, which proved a -6% miss, observes Morgan Stanley.

While trading conditions are expected to remain similar in the second half, with Penfolds planning a second-half weighting of shipment, the broker expects the cost of doing business will dampen margins.

Overweight rating retained on valuation, the broker believing margins will recover somewhat and in expectation of the removal of China tarrifs. 

Target price is steady at $13.75. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $13.75 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $2.32
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TWE as Add (1) -

Morgans expected the "weak" 1H result from Treasury Wine Estates, particularly from Treasury Americas, and makes only minor downward revisions to forecasts. 

While the DAOU acquisition remains on track, in the broker's opinion, management slightly lowered FY24 earnings (EBITS) growth guidance to reflect lower sales from Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) to Asia.

An interim 70%-franked dividend of 17cps was declared.

The target falls to $14.03 from $14.15. Add.

Target price is $14.03 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $2.6
If TWE meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Hold (3) -

As anticipated by Ord Minnett, 1H earnings for Treasury Wine Estates were "soft" with underlying EBIT falling by -6% compared to the previous corresponding period.

The broker assesses the Americas portfolio struggled and shipments to Asia declined. For strategic reasons, some Penfolds product was held back ahead of a potential reduction of the Chinese tariffs on wine, explains the analyst. 

Management is expecting a stronger 2H. Hold rating and $11.50 target price retained.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $0.07
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

Treasury Wine Estates' December-half earnings met consensus forecasts and outpaced UBS, with Penfolds the star performer. Net profit after tax outpaced consensus.

Management has guided to mid to high single-digit earnings growth for FY24, observing Penfolds shipments have been weighted to the second half. UBS says this should help normalise earnings (EBIT) margins back to target.

US sales disappointed as did costs, and UBS observes the company is pivoting to the luxury market, where it is currently enjoying better success.

EPS forecasts rise 1% in FY24; and 6% in FY25.

Buy rating retained as the US pivots to luxury. Target price steady at $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $2.57
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.10, suggesting upside of 14.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres' H1 release has noticeably left Citi analysts with positive vibes, as also illustrated through rising forecasts, with the analysts citing continued strong retail sales, reduced rent from development activity, and firm recovery of rent (once developments are completed).

The analysts highlight their colleagues on the Australian consumer team remain more optimistic as far as bottoming discretionary spend in 2024, to be followed by a strong recovery in 2025.

Citi acknowledges the REIT's current redevelopment program temporarily reduces rent in FY24-FY26 but there should follow strong rental recovery and growth thereafter into FY27.

Target gains 10c to $2.10. Neutral.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.05
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

Vicinity Centres's first half funds from operations came in 7% ahead of Macquarie's expectations, but driven by write-backs, lower corporate overheads and a larger skew to second half property expenses.

Management remains cautious on the retail outlook, and despite the likelihood for retail conditions to beat Vicinity's expectations embedded in guidance, leasing metrics are directionally negative, the broker notes.

The REIT offers resilient top-line growth over the medium term, driven partly by the development pipeline, but trading at an -8% discount to net tangible assets, Macquarie sees limited upside. Target rises to $1.92 from $1.73, Neutral retained.

Target price is $1.92 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Vicinity Centres' December-half funds from operations per share nosed out consensus forecasts primarily due to cost savings and net profit income growth from occupancy and CBDs, observes Morgan Stanley.

Management narrowed the guidance range to the top end of previous guidance but remains cautious on the outlook for June half sales, noting signs of easing growth in specialty.

The broker expects gearing will sit at 26.6% after the Chatswood revamp (it bought back the mall for -45% less than it sold it) and -$316m in divestments.

FY24 and FY25 EPS forecasts ease. Distributions are stable. Underweight rating and $1.95 target price retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.96, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has written down its Shenzi North reserves, following a disappointing production since start-up in its first 5-6 months. A Pluto reserve upgrade is a welcome surprise to Macquarie.

It appears a couple of Pluto and Xena wells are holding on longer than previously assumed.

Following the withdrawal from Santos talks, the broker expects Woodside to implement an overseas acquisition in 2024, most likely in deep water.

Neutral and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $30.24 Difference: $0.76
If WDS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.82, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Forecast for FY24:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

On further assessment of Wesfarmers' better-than-forecast interim performance, Citi analysts no longer see downside risk to consensus forecasts and instead lift their own by 7% in FY25 and by 5% in FY25.

Rating had been upgraded to Neutral from Sell in Citi's early response yesterday, with the price target moving to $61 from $45.

Kmart is clearly a better business than we thought, the analysts admit, while further growth in house prices should continue to support Bunnings.

In a beat to both Citi and consensus expectations, Wesfarmers reported earnings of $2.195m for the first half.

Kmart continued to be the outperformer of the Wesfarmers portfolio, reporting a 170 basis points earnings margin improvement. The brand's private label, Anko, now boasts 85% penetration, and has recently been rolled out to Target.

While earnings from Bunnings were flat, the broker points out it had expected negative earnings growth given cost pressures and a currently weak hardware category. 

The rating is upgraded to Sell from Neutral.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

The standout from Wesfarmers' result was an upside surprise in Kmart margins, Macquarie suggests, with significant operating leverage
delivered over the half.

Bunnings continues to trade well across DIY and Trade segments and the new Pet and Cleaning ranges have brought in a different customer cohort, the broker notes.

The WesCEF business came in below expectations on the back of softer commodities prices, as the business broadly maintained its production volumes. Macquarie believes Wesfarmers is a defensive consumer stock, offering earnings and dividend upside over the medium term.

Target rises to $61.20 from $57.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $61.20 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: minus $0.71 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Equal-weight (3) -

Wesfarmers's December-half result outpaced consensus by 3.9% thanks to a strong performance from Kmart, observes Morgan Stanley.

Kmart's beat was sheeted back to growth in high-margin segments, supply chain optimisation (plus falls in global shipping costs); and attractive consumer pricing. Management reports solid sales growth continued into January.

WesCEF was the laggard, missing consensus earnings forecasts by -10% as weak ammonia price, hefty gas costs and weak lithium prices continued to dog the division. The broker expects the business will post losses for the June half and possibly out to the next December half before turning earnings positive in the FY25 June half.

Equal-weight rating retained. Target price rises to $51.90 from $48.70. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $51.90 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: minus $10.01 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WES as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Kmart was the key highlight, according to Morgans, in 1H results for Wesfarmers that exceeded earnings (EBIT) forecasts by the broker and consensus by 7% and 4%, respectively.

As customers are becoming more value conscious, earnings at Kmart exceed the broker's forecast by by 43%, while earnings for all other divisions were either in line with or below expectations.

The target rises to $62.30 from $55.13 mainly due to a roll-forward of the broker's forecasts to FY25, and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. A lower share price entry point is awaited due to the current valuation.

Target price is $62.30 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: $0.39
If WES meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WES as Sell (5) -

Wesfarmers' discount department store Kmart Group significantly beat Ord Minnett's 1H forecast and the overal company earnings are on track to meet the broker's FY24 forecasts.

The stellar performance by Kmart offset muted sales growth at Bunnings, and the collapse in commodity prices which cut WesCEF's earnings nearly in half, explains the analyst.

An interim dividend of 19cps was declared.

Ord Minnett raises its target to $43 from $42 due to the time value of money and maintains a Sell rating due to an unwarranted premium to valuation for the conglomerate.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: minus $18.91 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Wesfarmers's December-half result outpaced consensus and UBS forecasts thanks to a strong performance from Kmart, where sales continued to post solid growth during january.

Bunnings and Officeworks performed broadly in line, while Catch disappointed.

WesCEF (chemicals and lithium) missed consensus and UBS forecasts. Management retained production guidance. but sales remain dependent on spot prices, which have been weak.

WesCEF earnings guidance for the June half was negative due to higher forecast production costs related to ramp-ups and continuing weakness in spodumene prices, and should continue to be negative until the December half of FY26, observes UBS.

EPS forecasts rise 2.8% in FY25; ease -0.7% in FY25; and rise 1.7% in FY26.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $61 from $55.

Target price is $61.00 Current Price is $61.91 Difference: minus $0.91 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $56.73, suggesting downside of -9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts report Whitehaven Coal's underlying H1 EBITDA missed their estimate by -6%, though the result looks in line with market consensus.

The 7c in dividend missed both consensus and Citi with the broker stating Whitehaven's dividend policy (20%-50% payout) is now dependent on earnings from non-acquired assets.

Forecasts have been trimmed, which reduces the price target to $9 (-40c). Buy rating retained. Dividend forecasts have noticeably reduced.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $1.92
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WHC as No Rating (-1) -

Whitehaven Coal's result was marginally softer than Macquarie expected. The interim dividend was in line with the broker but -43% lower than consensus. Revenues were in line, but higher costs hit earnings.

Macquarie is under research restriction.

Current Price is $7.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WHC as Overweight (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's December-half result appears to have broadly met Morgan Stanley's forecasts on most metrics save capital expenditure, the broker describing it as "mildly weaker on some fronts".

The broker was surprised by the post-result sell-off in the company's share price given production guidance was maintained and Narrabri was already included in previous guidance.

On the balance sheet front, the broker doubts the company will need a capital injection until the FY25 June half and the Daunia selldown should manage any concerns.

FY24 EPS forecasts take a tumble to reflect higher corporate and transactions costs, a slower production ramp-up and royalty assumptions at Daunia/BW and a delay in first production at Vickery. FY25 EPS forecasts are fairly stable.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to $8.50 from $8.95 in January. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $1.42
If WHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates WHC as Hold (3) -

Whitehaven Coal's 1H underlying financials were closely in line with Morgans expectations, due to quarterly disclosures, and management maintained all FY24 guidance.

The broker suspects the interim dividend of 7cps disappointed some transient investors (share price fell yesterday), who may have been expecting a windfall payout based on recent history.

The analyst now fully incorporates the BMA assets through forecasts from April 2, which would have raised the target but a valuation discount is applied to reflect shorter-term risks around BMA asset guidance and price realisations.

The target falls to $7.75 from $8.50. Hold.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $0.67
If WHC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WHC as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Whitehaven Coal's 1H result tallied with Ord Minnett's expectations but was a little shy of consensus forecasts. The interim dividend of 7cps, when consensus was expecting 13cps, appeared to be behind the post-result share price fall, in the analysts' view.

The broker upgrades its rating to Buy from Accumulate on the lower share price. The target is reduced by -2% to $8.60 after a higher dividend payout ratio is assumed, and the analysts forecast increased borrowings to support liquidity.

Liquidity requires support through the period of deferred acquisition payments for the forthcoming transformational Blackwater/Daunia transaction, explains Ord Minnett.

Target price is $8.60 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $1.52
If WHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources