Australian Broker Call

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November 27, 2020

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 01:16 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
BGA - Bega Cheese Upgrade to Add from Hold Morgans
GXY - Galaxy Resources Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
LLC - Lendlease Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
ORE - Orocobre Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
SYR - Syrah Resources Upgrade to Buy from Neutral UBS
ALU  ALTIUM LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment

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Overnight Price: $35.10

Credit Suisse rates ALU as Reinstate coverage with Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse reinstates coverage on Altium with an Outperform rating and a target price of $42.

Altium Designer is an industry-leading product, notes a pleased Credit Suisse, with industry growth led by the proliferation of electronic devices, further supported by Internet of Things.

The broker finds potential for higher operating income margins with scale benefits continuing to grow. Also, even with high levels of reinvestment, a dividend can still be paid, suggests Credit Suisse.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $34.99 Difference: $7.01
If ALU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $36.46, suggesting upside of 3.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 53.65 cents and EPS of 59.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 61.99 cents and EPS of 68.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.6, implying annual growth of 15.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APA  APA GROUP

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $10.69

UBS rates APA as Buy (1) -

UBS increases the price target for APA Group to $11.60 from $11.40. This follows the announcement of a final investment decision (FID) on a new 580km gas transmission pipeline connecting the onshore Perth basin to the Goldfields region in WA.

This puts the company well on its way to achieve its target of $1bn of growth capex over the next two to three years, predicts the broker.

UBS believes the investment decision should mitigate concern from some investors that the company is growth constrained within Australia.

The Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $11.60 Current Price is $10.57 Difference: $1.03
If APA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.42, suggesting upside of 8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of -3.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 14.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN  CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.07

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

With the recent tailwinds in the coal market, Macquarie increases earnings multiples for FY21 and FY22 to capture the recovery in thermal and metallurgical coal. The broker continues to prefer the latter over the former.

Covid-19 disruptions have resulted in the border between China and Mongolia (major coal exporter to China) being closed.

Additionally, the broker notes a current premium being paid for Western coal, resulting from the perceived Chinese import ban on Australian coal.

As the outlook for metallurgical coal is more positive in the medium to longer-term, Macquarie has a preference for Coronado Global Resources.  A 10% change in metallurgical coal prices is considered to drive a circa 50% change in earnings.

Thermal coal shifts make immaterial changes to the company’s valuation, calculates the broker.

The target increases to $1.20 from $1 and the Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.09
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.35, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -11.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.38 cents and EPS of 12.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $30.91

Macquarie rates FPH as Outperform (1) -

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare reported first half results and raised guidance by around 3% versus consensus at the profit (NPAT) level, reports Macquarie.

The broker raises forecasts to reflect an upgrade to the Hospital consumables profile.

In the analyst's view, the company is likely to see an enduring covid-19 benefit from clinical adoption of NHF/Airvo, which will likely
underpin the medium-term earnings track.

Outperform retained, target price is NZ$38.18.

Current Price is $31.94. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 32.83 cents and EPS of 70.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 38.87 cents and EPS of 70.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.7, implying annual growth of -9.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GXY  GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $2.00

Macquarie rates GXY as Underperform (5) -

Galaxy Resources has completed a capital raising to fund Stage 1 of its Sal de Vida project and progress the James Bay project to ‘construction ready’.

The underwritten capital raising comprises a $111m institutional placement and $50m accelerated pro-rata non-renounceable entitlement offer (ANREO). Both the placement and the ANREO were offered at a price of $1.70.

Macquarie re-incorporates Stage 1 development of Sal de Vida into forecasts, and while there are early signs of pricing improvement, the broker believes fundamentals for the sector are still fragile with supply discipline the key.

The Underperform rating is unchanged.

There were some meaningful changes to the earnings forecast and target price. The increased dilution from the capital-raise cuts Macquarie’s 2020-2022 EPS forecasts by a range of -4% to -15%.

Once Sal de Vida achieves commercial production (included at the end of 2023) the broker's earnings forecasts increase materially. Macquarie values Sal de Vida at $498m, which increases the target price to $1.60 from $0.40.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If GXY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting downside of -17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 86.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 27.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GXY as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Galaxy Resources to a Buy rating from Neutral on forecast lithium prices lifting due to tightening of supply, as a result of electric vehicle penetration by 2030.

A rapid rise in raw material demand sees deficits forming over the next decade even if the broker assumes all known projects come to market.

The analyst raises the price target 79% to $2.50 from $1.40 in-line with the lift in net present value, as a result of the increase to long term pricing.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.14 Difference: $0.36
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting downside of -17.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -3.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $5.29

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

Following the release of APRA’s Quarterly General Insurance Performance Statistics for September Macquarie estimates premium rate movements for the market and reviews profitability across major products.

The broker concludes industry price rises remain strong with covid-19 benefits (particularly in Motor lines) due to impact results again in the first half FY21.

The analyst expects industry data is likely to be volatile over the next few quarters, with diverging price rises and claims experience by product, as well as inconsistent data entry by insurer and technology platform.

The Outperform rating for Insurance Australia Group is unchanged and the target is $5.80.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.32 Difference: $0.48
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.53, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 143.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.6, implying annual growth of -65.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.9.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 36.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of 383.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD  IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $0.16

Morgans rates IPD as Add (1) -

While making no changes to near-term earnings forecasts, Morgans has growing confidence in ImpediMed and lifts the target to $0.20 from $0.142. The increase results from a rise in the terminal growth rate used by the broker.

This comes as the company has achieved the placement of additional units with AstraZeneca and made first commercial sales into the heart failure market.

The analyst believes both heart failure and renal opportunities are within reach.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.04
If IPD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.33.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 320.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLC  LENDLEASE GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $14.58

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Lendlease Group expects a subdued first-half result with Credit Suisse noting no meaningful commercial forward sales yet.

While the broker thinks this may point to a skew towards the second-half, the group has cited soft tenant demand in several markets. FY21 earnings forecast has been downgraded by -10.9%

The broker sees Lendlease as an attractive opportunity for patient investors but suggests a lack of shorter-term catalysts.

Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform with the target rising to $14.81 from $13.31.

Target price is $14.81 Current Price is $14.20 Difference: $0.61
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.14, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.14 cents and EPS of 70.27 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 44.03 cents and EPS of 88.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.4, implying annual growth of 36.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC  NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.43

Macquarie rates NHC as Underperform (5) -

With the recent tailwinds in the coal market, Macquarie increases earnings multiples for FY21 and FY22 to capture the recovery in thermal and metallurgical coal. The broker continues to prefer the latter over the former.

Covid-19 disruptions have resulted in the border between China and Mongolia (major coal exporter to China) being closed.

Additionally, the broker notes a current premium being paid for Western coal, resulting from the perceived Chinese import ban on Australian coal.

A 10% change in thermal coal prices drives a circa 30% change in earnings for New Hope Corporation, while a 10% change in metallurgical coal prices has little impact on the company’s earnings.

The target increases to $1.20 from $1 and the Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 0.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 100.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 330.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 2225.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORE  OROCOBRE LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $4.00

UBS rates ORE as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Orocobre to a Buy rating from Neutral on forecast lithium prices lifting due to tightening of supply, as a result of electric vehicle penetration by 2030.

A rapid rise in raw material demand sees deficits forming over the next decade even if the broker assumes all known projects come to market.

UBS believes the company is well positioned to take advantage of rising lithium prices through the ramp up of Olaroz Phase 2 and the Naraha hydroxide plant in Japan.

The analyst raises the price target to $4.50 from $2.50 in-line with the lift in net present value.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $0.35
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting downside of -22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 51.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -6.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 156.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG  ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $5.33

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

An upgrade to APLNG production guidance by Origin Energy results in Citi increasing earnings estimates for FY22. The broker had already factored in ‘impressive’ cost reduction targets for capex and opex.

By end of FY22 the analyst sees the leverage ratio low enough for the payout ratio to increase to 50%.

Given cash tax losses will have been largely utilised, the broker forecast of FY22 DPS of 37cps (a 7% yield) should be partially franked. It’s considered the improvement in the leverage ratio could facilitate buy backs from FY23.

The Buy rating is unchanged and the target price lowered to $6.78 from $7.01.

Target price is $6.78 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $1.59
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 27.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 37.40 cents and EPS of 40.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy believes better field performance will help stabilise production with reduced drilling. The company expects circa $150m in extra cash flow, equivalent to a 10% rise to FY23's expected free cash flow.

Credit Suisse has increased its FY21 energy markets operating income to $1,276m which is at the top end of reaffirmed $1,150-$1,300m guidance. The broker also finds the adoption of the Kraken platform to be progressing well with 10k customers migrated.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $5.80 from $4.70.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.61
If ORG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 29.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Origin Energy has upgraded production guidance driven by global LNG supply outages, China demand recovery and higher Korean demand due to nuclear generation outages.  Additionally, there is increased northern hemisphere winter demand.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates for FY21 and FY22 by 4.6% and 5.3%, respectively. The broker also lifts FY23 by 18.7% due to lower APLNG depreciation, along with cost savings coming through.

 As a result of higher production and longer-term capex reductions, the analyst lifts the target price by 13% to $5.47 from $4.84.

APLNG’s cost performance has continued to exceed Macquarie’s expectation, and higher production has added to this. However, the Energy Markets division weighs heavily with the energy price outlook likely to be a drag, warns the broker.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.28
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 23.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ORG as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley welcomes Origin Energy’s guidance lift (4% at the mid-point). This is despite the broker estimating the company’s break-even gains on the higher volumes are mostly offset by the appreciation in the Australian dollar.

Management left Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance unchanged, and did not comment on forward curves that remain headwinds, notes Morgan Stanley.

The analyst notes the company reiterated its strategy of customer-led energy delivery at low cost, and announced early stage growth strategies for green molecules.

The Equal Weight rating is unchanged and the target price is decreased to $5.55 from $5.93.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.36
If ORG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.50 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ORG as Add (1) -

Origin Energy has lifted FY21 guidance for APLNG production by 4%, as winter in the northern hemisphere increases gas demand and global economies continue to recover from the pandemic.

Earnings guidance remains steady for the Energy Markets division, despite what the broker describes as ongoing turmoil in the electricity market. The company may reduce operating units at the Eraring plant for greater efficiency while weaker spot prices endure.

Morgans lifts the FY21 DPS forecast to 11 cents on a higher expected distribution from the APLNG joint venture in the first half.

The Add rating is maintained and the target rises to $6.48 from $6.25.

Target price is $6.48 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $1.29
If ORG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy's 2020 investor day was mostly a reiteration of the company's existing strategy with no material change to guidance, reports the broker.

The company increased its gas production guidance on account of better export demand. Ord Minnett notes management remains focused on cost reductions in both the gas and energy markets divisions. 

The broker maintains its Buy recommendation with the target price trimmed to $7.35 from $7.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.35 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $2.16
If ORG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

UBS’s outlook for Origin Energy has improved as the business continues to benefit from strong production and cost efficiencies within APLNG, which has pushed near-term earnings higher.

The Energy Markets business continues to face pressure from lower-for-longer wholesale electricity prices, warns the broker. This arises partly from NSW government plans to underwrite 12GW of new renewables.

The APLNG production and cost savings drive FY21-23 EPS increases by UBS. The Buy rating is unchanged and the target rises to $7.50 from $7.40.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $2.31
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.42, suggesting upside of 23.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 370.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.5.

Forecast for FY22:

UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB  QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.99

Morgans rates QUB as Reduce (5) -

After a trading update from Qube holdings, Morgans upgrades estimates for FY21 and FY22 underlying profit (NPATA).

Apart from lower net interest costs, the earnings upgrades result from higher contributions from the Operating division and Patrick.

Management’s only comment on Moorebank monetisation was the current transaction (involving LOGOS) relates to monetising 100% of the company’s warehouse interests.

The Reduce rating is maintained as the broker believes valuation support is stretched at the current share price.

The target is raised to $2.56 from $2.52

Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If QUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.03, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.1, implying annual growth of 17.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.0.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 24.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMS  RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $1.71

Macquarie rates RMS as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Macquarie initiates coverage of Ramelius Resources with a Neutral recommendation and a price target of $1.90.

The company owns 100% of the Mt Magnet and Edna May gold mines in Western Australia. It also operates the Vivian and Marda satellite mines which provide additional feed for the Mt Magnet and Edna May process plants.

The broker expects production of 277koz of gold from operations in FY21 at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $1,268/oz against a guidance of 260-280koz at AISC of $1,230-1,330/oz.

Macquarie warns a key risk to the outlook includes resource to reserve conversion across the company’s projects.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.73 Difference: $0.17
If RMS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.61.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.04.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP  STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $4.61

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Stockland has appointed Tarun Gupta to be MD and CEO, replacing the outgoing Mark Steinert.

Mr Gupta has been CFO of Lendlease ((LLC)) since May 2016 and previously had 25 years experience with Lendlease including CEO Property, Head of Investment Management, and Fund Manager of the company’s diversified fund.

Morgan Stanley believes this background aligns closely with the company's integrated business model, and ambitions to move more into commercial development (e.g. M Park) and build out its capital partnering capabilities.

The rating of Overweight and target price of $4.45 are unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.45 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 27.20 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Ord Minnett rates SGP as Lighten (4) -

Tarun Gupta will be the new managing director and CEO of Stockland, beginning on 1 June 2021

Ord Minnett expects Tarun Gupta to bring a "steady hand" along with some strategy tweaks.

Lighten recommendation is maintained with a $3.90 target price.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.62 Difference: minus $0.72 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.01, suggesting downside of -12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Forecast for FY22:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.5, implying annual growth of 4.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $10.22

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Following the release of APRA’s Quarterly General Insurance Performance Statistics for September, Macquarie estimates premium rate movements for the market and reviews profitability across major products.

The broker concludes industry price rises remain strong with covid-19 benefits (particularly in motor lines) due to impact results again in the first half FY21.

The Outperform rating for Suncorp Group is unchanged and the target is $11.80.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $10.18 Difference: $1.62
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.64, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 65.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.7, implying annual growth of -10.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.4, implying annual growth of 7.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR  SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements

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Overnight Price: $0.78

UBS rates SYR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Syrah Resources to a Buy rating from Neutral upon predicting a tightening of the graphite market. This is considered to suport the restart of Balama in 2021.

The broker states the Balama facility is capable of supplying 350ktpa into the market, and expects management will manage the ramp up of the facility. This is considered necessary to keep the market balanced and prices elevated against current spot prices.

UBS makes only minor changes to graphite pricing forecasts as the need for graphite prices to rise had already been factored in. However, minor modelling changes by the broker  to operating assumptions have had a material impact on EPS, albeit off a low base.

The target price is increased to $1.15 from $0.52.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.88 Difference: $0.27
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.77, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -12.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY21:

UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 7.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC  WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal

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Overnight Price: $1.51

Macquarie rates WHC as Underperform (5) -

With the recent tailwinds in the coal market, Macquarie increases earnings multiples for FY21 and FY22 to capture the recovery in thermal and metallurgical coal. The broker continues to prefer the latter over the former.

Covid-19 disruptions have resulted in the border between China and Mongolia (major coal exporter to China) being closed.

Additionally, the broker notes a current premium being paid for Western coal, resulting from the perceived Chinese import ban on Australian coal.

Whitehaven Coal has 20% of production and sales being metallurgical coal, while a 10% change in thermal coal prices drives a circa 30% change in earnings for the company.

The target increases to $1.20 from $1 and the Underperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 11.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.6, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY22:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 9.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.2, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Last Price Broker New Target Prev Target Change
ALU Altium $35.09 Credit Suisse 42.00 14.00 200.00%
APA APA $10.56 UBS 11.60 11.40 1.75%
BGA Bega Cheese $5.68 Morgans 6.10 5.13 18.91%
CRN Coronado Global Resources $1.04 Macquarie 1.20 1.00 20.00%
GXY Galaxy Resources $2.13 Macquarie 1.60 0.40 300.00%
UBS 2.50 1.40 78.57%
IAG Insurance Australia $5.21 Macquarie 5.80 5.30 9.43%
IPD Impedimed $0.17 Morgans 0.20 0.14 40.85%
LLC Lendlease $14.13 Credit Suisse 14.81 13.31 11.27%
NHC New Hope Corp $1.32 Macquarie 1.20 1.00 20.00%
ORE Orocobre $4.06 UBS 4.50 2.50 80.00%
ORG Origin Energy $5.19 Citi 6.78 7.01 -3.28%
Credit Suisse 5.80 4.70 23.40%
Macquarie 5.47 4.84 13.02%
Morgan Stanley 5.55 5.93 -6.41%
Morgans 6.48 6.25 3.68%
Ord Minnett 7.35 7.40 -0.68%
UBS 7.50 7.40 1.35%
QUB Qube Holdings $2.93 Morgans 2.56 2.52 1.59%
SGP Stockland $4.59 Ord Minnett 3.90 3.60 8.33%
SYR Syrah Resources $0.89 UBS 1.15 0.52 121.15%
WHC Whitehaven Coal $1.37 Macquarie 1.20 1.00 20.00%
Summaries
ALU Altium Reinstate coverage with Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $35.10
APA APA Buy - UBS Overnight Price $10.69
CRN Coronado Global Resources Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.07
FPH Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $30.91
GXY Galaxy Resources Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.00
Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $2.00
IAG Insurance Australia Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.29
IPD Impedimed Add - Morgans Overnight Price $0.16
LLC Lendlease Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.58
NHC New Hope Corp Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.43
ORE Orocobre Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $4.00
ORG Origin Energy Buy - Citi Overnight Price $5.33
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $5.33
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $5.33
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $5.33
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $5.33
Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $5.33
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $5.33
QUB Qube Holdings Reduce - Morgans Overnight Price $2.99
RMS Ramelius Resources Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.71
SGP Stockland Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $4.61
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $4.61
SUN Suncorp Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $10.22
SYR Syrah Resources Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $0.78
WHC Whitehaven Coal Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $1.51
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

17

3. Hold

6

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

4

Monday 30 November 2020

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Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.