Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A1M as Buy (1) -

Following AIC Mines' December quarter update, Bell Potter suggests operations are on track to beat unchanged copper production guidance and meet the lower end of cost guidance. It's thought the current share price represents an "excellent" entry point.

While management has guided to a softer 2H, and the broker trims its forecasts, the analysts still forecast guidance beats for production and costs.

Buy rating. Target price rises to 62c from 60c.

Target price is $0.62 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.285
If A1M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 130.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates A1M as Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights AIC Mines reported a much stronger 2Q25 update with better-than-anticipated production, sales, and cash metrics.

Management retained FY25 guidance of 12.5kt copper with all-in-sustaining costs of $5.25/lb.

Despite the "appealing" valuation, the broker notes poor sentiment towards micro-cap base metal names is limiting the share price reaction to a strong report.

The stock remains Speculative Buy rated, with the target price increasing to 63c from 62c.

Target price is $0.63 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.295
If A1M meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 130.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy (1) -

AIC Mines reported 2QFY25 which showed strong Eloise production driven by high grades, recovery and throughput. Operating cashflow, up 61% quarter on quarter to $23.8m was also a highlight, Shaw and Partners comments.

Total production over the first six months leaves the company well-placed to meet the FY25 production guidance of 12.5kt at a cost of $5.25/lb, the broker observes.

The broker remains a copper bull and AIC is its preferred producing exposure. Buy recommendation and $1.1 target price retained.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.765
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 228% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.78, suggesting upside of 130.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates A2M as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating and NZ$5.90 target for a2 Milk Co, noting a strong track record of share gains in challenging market conditions. Industry view: In-Line.

Current Price is $5.84. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABY as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi notes Adore Beauty's 1H25 sales came in -7% below consensus expectations at $103m. Gross margin was better than expected by 150bps, and earnings were 5% above consensus.

The broker observes that excluding the five-month contribution of IKOU, online sales fell -8% year-on-year, while the cost of doing business rose by 4% compared to sales growth of 2%.

Citi suggests the higher cost of doing business could be attributed to disruption from the CEO change, store opening, and IKOU.

Buy, High Risk. Target price is $1.50.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.6
If ABY meets the Citi target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 49.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AFG as Neutral (3) -

Australian Finance Group announced 2Q25 total lodgements growth of 19.4% year-on-year, with AFG home loan product growth of 8%.

Macquarie notes home loan products represented around 6.6% of all lodgements during the period, a dip from below 7% over the previous 12 months. The broker attributes this to more intense competition impacting market share.

The company invested in two brokerages, Empower Wealth Group and Lifespan Mortgage Services, with minority stakes, the analyst notes.

Macquarie raises EPS estimates by 2-3% for FY25-FY26. Target price increases to $1.64 from $1.61. Neutral rating is unchanged.

Target price is $1.64 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.1
If AFG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades AGL Energy to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $12.08, up from $11.67, due to an improved earnings outlook driven by higher NSW power prices.

The analyst explains 1H25 results should benefit from government rebates, customer relief programs, and stronger prices. FY26 and FY27 pricing outlooks of $120-$125/MWh for SA and NSW are around $10/MWh higher than the broker's previous forecast.

Macquarie envisions battery arbitrage revenue could have a material impact over the next two years as Neoen and Liddell batteries come online.

The broker highlights political uncertainty in the energy sector, noting a potential government change could extend the "need for coal" and possibly lead to AGL developing an open cycle gas turbine.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 2.5% for FY25 and 7.5% for FY26. Outperform rating retained with a $12.08 target price.

Target price is $12.08 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $0.65
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.79, suggesting upside of 0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANN as Neutral (3) -

UBS uses its evidence lab to assess sourcing patterns for medical gloves in response to US tariffs on China.

Respondents to the evidence lab indicated around 22% plan to increase stocks, and approximately 15% expect to change sourcing.

The broker raises Ansell's sales forecast in healthcare by 200bps for FY25 and 100bps for FY26, resulting in a higher target price of $36 from $32.

The Neutral rating is retained, as the analyst remains concerned about stocking/destocking issues over recent years.

Ansell is set to report 1H25 results on 10 February, with sales performance seen as key for share price support. UBS also flags downside risks from revenue leakage as customers shift to Kimberly-Clark in FY26.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $35.03 Difference: $0.97
If ANN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.84, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Citi believes investors continue to underestimate the improved position of Amotiv compared to the last two to three years.

The broker highlights an improved balance sheet, overseas growth opportunities across South Africa and Europe, and the divestment of Davey, a non-performing business.

Amotiv generated 75% of FY24 revenue from the non-internal combustion engine market, an increase from 69% the previous year, the analyst explains.

Citi views a stock rerating as possible as the company achieves earnings growth. Buy-rated with a $12.65 target price.

ARB Corp remains the preferred small-cap auto parts company.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $1.82
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 21.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates APE as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target to $13.65 from $13.00 for Buy-rated Eagers Automotive on expectations for a consensus-beating 2H result.

The broker highlights contributions from the BYD retail joint venture and the annual payment from Toyota, which are expected to lift profit margins in the second half.

The broker forecasts 2024 revenue and underlying operating profit (PBT) of $11.1bn and $378m, respectively, which compares to respective consensus estimates of $11.1bn and $362m.

The analysts' 2025 revenue forecast is $12bn, with an underlying operating PBT of $398m, supported by the recent acquisition of Norris Group.

While Bell Potter's revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were upgraded by 3%, margin forecasts have been slightly reduced to reflect softening trading conditions. 

Target price is $13.65 Current Price is $12.37 Difference: $1.28
If APE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.96, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ARB as Buy (1) -

ARB Corp remains Citi's top pick in the small-cap auto parts sector.

The analyst acknowledges near-term risks to the stock’s 4WD accessories and trailering sales based on early indications of Toyota's vehicle production targets, which have come in at the lower end of expectations. Toyota is due to report 3Q results on 5 February.

Citi highlights the company is not a launch partner for the BYD Shark, which the broker states is another potential disruption in 2H 2025.

ARB Corp is Buy-rated with a $49.22 target price.

Target price is $49.22 Current Price is $39.64 Difference: $9.58
If ARB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $43.07, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

On first inspection, Citi highlights an apparent reduction in Accent Group's sales growth and gross margins since the AGM in the latest 1H25 trading update.

Accounting for the unexpected one-off -$3.3m non-recurring item, the update was broadly in line with consensus expectations.

The analyst notes a decline in like-for-like sales growth to 2.0% versus an estimate of 3.5% and 3.5% in the first 20 weeks. Increased promotions saw the gross margin shrink -100bps in 1H25, above the -70bps decline in the first four months.

Management indicated "inventory is clean." Citi lowers net profit after tax forecast by -5% for FY25 and -12% for FY26.

Accent Group is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price falls -2% to $2.43 from $2.47.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.38 Difference: $0.05
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.57, suggesting upside of 16.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BCB as Buy (1) -

Bowen Coking Coal reported its best-ever EBITDA result of $26.1m in the December quarter update despite the lowest achieved coal pricing for over a year, Shaw and Partners highlights.

The broker reckons this is a testament to the improved operational performance with record shipping volumes and lowest-ever costs of $148/t.

The broker notes the achieved coal price of $204/t in the quarter was the lowest since Sep-23. The broker expects coking and thermal coal prices to improve through the year, with one catalyst being the wet weather which is now impacting the Queensland producers. 

The broker has increased FY25 EBITDA forecast by 97% on higher production and lower costs.

Buy rating and 4c target price is unchanged.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.01 Difference: $0.033
If BCB meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 471% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BDM as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating for Burgundy Diamond Mines following a softer-than-expected December quarter, resulting in a slight miss to 2024 guidance across production and earnings (EBITDA).

The broker highlights operational challenges during the quarter, resulting in reduced throughput at the operations, which led to the production miss. 

Management is addressing balance sheet risks, after being heavily impacted by weak diamond markets, through exploring working capital management and debt facilities.

Due to the diamond market weakness, Bell Potter lowers its target to 10c from 18c.

Target price is $0.10 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.051
If BDM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 104% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BGL as Buy (1) -

Bellevue Gold's 2Q gold production was impacted by mining issues including delays in accessing high-grade mining areas and increased grade variability in low-grade mining areas, explains Bell Potter.

These issues resulted in average processed grade falling by -35% quarter-on-quarter to 3.1g/t gold compared to 4.8 g/t gold in Q1, explains the broker.

FY25 production guidance has been lowered to 150-165koz from 165-180koz, while cost guidance has worsened to $1,900-2,100/oz from $1,750-1,850/oz.

The target rises to $2.00 from $1.90 given Bell Potter's higher Australian dollar gold price forecasts. Buy.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.895
If BGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGL as Outperform (1) -

Due to the pre-release of most of Bellevue Gold's metrics for the 2Q25 activities report, Macquarie notes all-in-sustaining costs were better than forecast by -6%, and FY25 guidance met expectations.

Production of 26.1koz was in line with the broker's estimate, and management pointed to a considerably more robust 2H25, with "positive momentum" in December and January.

The company expects production of 90koz in 2H25 and confirmed the 4Q25 production target rate of over 200koz per annum, the analyst notes.

Macquarie tweaks EPS forecasts by less than 2% for FY25/FY26.

Outperform rating is maintained. Target price retained at $1.70.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.595
If BGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGL as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Bellevue Gold announced the full breakdown of metrics for 2Q25 following some pre-releases.

Low-grade stockpiles impacted the "disappointing" December quarter, the analyst states, but the mill's performance remained strong, exceeding a 1mtpa run rate for the quarter and over 1.2mtpa for December.

The rise in costs was less than "feared." UBS highlights that if the company can achieve 2H25 guidance of 90koz at $1,850 all-in-sustaining-cost, it would be one of the few miners to achieve such a result.

The hedgebook lowers near-term upside, the broker notes.

Bellevue Gold is viewed as undervalued based on FY26 estimates, with lower hedging and production of over 200koz expected.

Buy rating maintained. Target price increases to $1.60 from $1.55.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.11 Difference: $0.495
If BGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 34.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BOE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights 4Q24 production of 215,319lb for Boss Energy's Honeymoon, marginally above expectations.

Management provided FY25 production guidance of 850,000lb, which implies 623,000lb drummed in 2H25, according to the analyst.

Sales of 200,000lb and revenue of US$15.5m significantly exceeded Macquarie's estimates, with 120klb awaiting the next shipment in February, the broker notes.

Opex guidance for 2H25 came in below forecasts by -$25m, while infrastructure is progressing well. Columns 1 and 2 are producing at nameplate capacity, column 3 is ramping up, column 4 is due in 3Q25, and columns 5 and 6 are expected in 4Q25.

Boss Energy remains one of Macquarie's top uranium picks with an Outperform rating. Target price is $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $1.66
If BOE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 26.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett analyses the demographics behind CommBank.

The broker notes the retail bank serves more than one-third of Australia's total population. Accounting for new migrants, FY24 data suggests more than 60% - or 405,000 out of 667,000—selected CommBank.

After adjusting for departures, Ord Minnett estimates the bank achieved net migrant customer growth of 305,000 in FY24.

The analyst also highlights the increasing proportion of lending to the "rich," with both segments identified as offering high returns.

CommBank is viewed as "first class," but the broker considers the cost for such high quality excessive.

Sell rated. Target price is $105.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $159.28 Difference: minus $54.28 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $104.22, suggesting downside of -34.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Equal-weight rating for Coles Group, while maintaining an Overweight rating for Woolworths Group. Target for Coles is $17.80. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $17.80 Current Price is $19.39 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $19.46, suggesting upside of 0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights the disappointing decision by Santos for Carnarvon Energy to defer the Dorado FEED final investment decision.

Management is expected to shift focus to exploration well drilling in 2026 at a cost of -$15m-$20m, as the company holds equity stakes of 10%-20% across the relevant permits, the analyst details.

Macquarie explains the share price is likely to track the company’s cash levels, and any corporate appeal will need to address Santos’ intentions for Dorado.

Outperform rating is unchanged, as the broker believes there is "significant value" in Carnarvon’s Bedout Basin, notably Dorado/Pavo liquids.

Target price decreases to 22c from 29c, reflecting the analyst reducing Dorado/Pavo inclusion to 50%.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.095
If CVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating. Target price $40. Industry view: In-Line. The analysts await an update from newly appointed CEO Mark van Dyck on strategic priorities.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.79 Difference: $9.21
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.74, suggesting upside of 7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DSE as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Dropsuite has entered a scheme of arrangement for NinjaOne LLC to acquire 100% of the company at $5.90 per share.

The price represents a 34% premium to the last closing price.

Dropsuite's board has unanimously recommended shareholders vote in favour of the scheme.

The broker also highlights 4Q24 metrics were "exceptionally strong" and well above forecasts.

Target price increases to $5.90 from $4.09. Stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.74 Difference: $0.16
If DSE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EBR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target price for EBR Systems to $2.26 from $2.01, following the FDA's completion of its Pre-Approval Inspection (PAI) of the company’s manufacturing facilities with no materially negative outcomes. Speculative Buy is maintained.

Management anticipates FDA approval on or before April 13.

In a further strong endorsement of theWiSE -CRT system, according to the analysts, EBR Systems is the first company accepted into a new Centre for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) highly selective program for covering new technologies, TCET.

This is a new reimbursement pathway for FDA-designated Breakthrough Devices offering expedited Medicare coverage for impactful technologies, explains the broker.

Bell Potter also points to positive 2Q developments, including successful clinical trial results and a robust cash balance of $72m to support ongoing operations. 

Target price is $2.26 Current Price is $1.77 Difference: $0.495
If EBR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EDV as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating for Endeavour Group on an undemanding valuation and a market overreaction to cyclical weakness for liquor retail. Target: $5.90. Overweight. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $1.74
If EDV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.84, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EGL as Buy (1) -

In a 1H result preview for Environmental Group, Bell Potter forecasts ongoing strong revenue growth of 14% year-on-year to $53.3m 
and an 8% rise in operating earnings (EBITDA) to $4.8m, implying an underlying figure of circa $5.8m.

Key uncertainties include the outlook for Waste and per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) sales, according to the broker, notwithstanding the clearly significant opportunity for both.

The Buy rating and 40c target are unchanged. Bell Potter believes the recent pullback in share price provides an entry point for investors.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.125
If EGL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FMG as Equal-weight (3) -

Fortescue has offered to acquire Red Hawk Mining ((RHK)) for -$254m and has also entered into call options over 19.99% of Red Hawk shares.

Given Red Hawk's operations are in close proximity to Fortescue's existing infrastructure at Solomon Hub, Morgan Stanley believes the acquisition is logical. 

The transaction would also add extra mine life to the depleting Solomon hub, highlight the analysts.

Equal-weight rating. Target $18.10. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $18.88 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.48, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie observes 2025 guidance for Gold Road Resources, including a three-year outlook for Gruyere.

The company indicated 2025 production guidance of 325-355koz and all-in-sustaining costs of $2,500/oz. The analyst lowers its 2025 production forecast and raises the cost forecast in the company’s earnings model.

Management continues to explore underground mining options for Gruyere as well as the purchase of additional sites to support mine life extension. Strategically, the company is focused on mining with higher stripping levels to support the mill, the broker explains.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -8% for 2025 and -11% for 2026.

The broker remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $2.40. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GYG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and $38.50 target for Guzman y Gomez, noting the potential for an upside surprise in H1 for same store sales growth/margin. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $38.50 Current Price is $39.47 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If GYG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $40.23, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HVN as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating and $4.00 target or Harvey Norman. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $4.95 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If HVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.90, suggesting downside of -4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates IEL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating and $21.50 target. Industry view: In Line. The analysts expect better-than-feared visa data as well as progress on IELTS in China.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $12.85 Difference: $8.65
If IEL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.04, suggesting upside of 36.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IKE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Following NZ$44m of closed contracts so far in FY25 and a 181% increase in seat licenses in Q3, ikeGPS Group's 3Q update revealed a 12% quarter-on-quarter rise in subscription revenue.

Management remains optimistic about growth prospects, underpinned by increasing adoption of its pole infrastructure management platform.

The target eases to 93c from 94c partly due to an increase in the broker's assumed risk-free rate. Speculative Buy.

Target price is $0.93 Current Price is $0.58 Difference: $0.35
If IKE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IPX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Iperionx's 2Q report shows good progress across key work streams, according to Bell Potter, and a strong balance sheet with US$77m cash and no debt.

The broker expresses increased confidence in the scale-up of titanium powder and component production at the Virginia facility throughout 2025, supporting the completion of test orders and qualification with potential commercial offtake customers.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and $5.25 target.

Target price is $5.25 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: $1.51
If IPX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JBH as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating for JB Hi-Fi on valuation grounds. Target $69.20. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $69.20 Current Price is $98.40 Difference: minus $29.2 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $81.74, suggesting downside of -18.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates KGN as Hold (3) -

Kogan.com's preliminary and unaudited first-half update revealed an earnings (EBITDA) miss against Bell Potter's forecast, attributed to increased marketing investment during the promotional period.

Adjusted earnings rose by 17% year-on-year to $25.3m, while gross sales grew by 10.5%.

Earnings were also negatively impacted by re-platforming issues at Mighty Ape, which persisted through the second quarter of FY25, but are now largely resolved.

Bell Potter maintains a Hold rating but lowers the target price to $5.10 from $5.30, reflecting reduced earnings forecasts.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.31
If KGN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates KGN as Accumulate (2) -

Kogan.com reported a below-expectations 1H25 trading update, according to Ord Minnett.

The analyst notes increased marketing spend and higher technology costs at Mighty Ape impacted margins and the bottom line, despite good revenue growth.

Management's update suggests 1H25 operating earnings could fall by as much as -17% compared to previous consensus estimates.

Ord Minnett lowers EPS forecast by -7% for FY25.

Target price increases to $5.55 from $5.30. Accumulate rating is retained.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.76
If KGN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners noted Metro Mining reported a record 4Q24 quarter with EBITDA of $36.2m and margin of $17.4/wmt.

The record was achieved despite weather disruptions in December, and the broker expects these results to be beaten in 2025.

The broker notes Bauxite prices remain elevated, and Metro has yet to see the full impact of recent price rises.

No changes to forecasts. Target price retained at 17c and Buy rating maintained.

Metro Mining is one of Shaw and Partners' top picks for 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.11
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 183% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates NXL as Buy (1) -

Nuix confirmed FY25 guidance of 15% annualised contract value growth at the 1H25 trading update but introduced a range of 11-16% which Shaw and Partners reckons is a softening vs before, but not thesis changing.

The broker notes results for Nuix Neo continue to highlight a positive outlook for this new product. The company is delivering operating leverage at an operational level, but non-operating legal costs remain a headwind.

The broker has taken a more conservative stance on revenue growth after the update.

Target price cut to $5.7 from $7.0 but Buy rating stays.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $1.39
If NXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ONE as Speculative Buy (1) -

"Live Beds" is a key KPI Bell Potter utilises to assess the performance at Oneview Healthcare and the pathway to breakeven, and management delivered in Q4 with conversion of contracted beds.

Beating guidance by around 6.6%, Live Beds increased by around 23.2% year-on-year to 12,514.

Timing was the main reason for 4Q cash receipts being sharply lower as compared with Q3, observe the analysts.

The broker retains its Speculative Buy rating and 40c target.

Full year results are due on February 26.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.11
If ONE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

On the back of Paladin Energy's latest 2Q25 activities report, Macquarie lowers the FY25 production forecast for Langer Heinrich to 3.25mlb from 3.5mlb, which sits within management's guidance range.

The broker highlights grades continued to disappoint with stockpile use, and management is planning to start mining again in July, with FY26 guidance anticipated then.

Macquarie proposes a strategic sell-down to a commercial partner for Patterson Lake South to manage risk in the short term, which it considers prudent.

The analyst forecasts capex of -CA$1bn with a 2031 commencement date, compared to Fission Energy's estimate of -CA$1.1bn and a 2029 start date.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -24% for FY25 and -7% for FY26. No change to the Neutral rating and $9.10 target price.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.95
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.56, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Add (1) -

Morgans made some updates to its model for Rio Tinto ahead of the February full-year reporting season, including adjustments to non-operating items like central costs, unallocated exploration, and other costs.

This resulted in a -4.2% cut to net profit estimate for FY24 to US$10.94bn and a 1.3% increase to FY25 estimate to US$12.24bn.

Target price is $125. Rating is unchanged at Add.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $117.68 Difference: $7.32
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $128.58, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SFX as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett believes Sheffield Resources reported a "disappointing" 2Q25 activity report, with zircon sales falling below the analyst's estimate and December guidance.

The analyst notes joint venture partner Yansteel provided a US$22m prepayment to support Kimberley Mineral Sands, which generated a negative operational cash flow of -$13m.

Ord Minnett highlights some indications the zircon market may be recovering. No change to the Hold rating. Target price decreases to 12c from 13c.

Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If SFX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SIG as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Sigma Healthcare to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds, with a higher target price of $2.70, up from $2.15.

The broker notes a strong trading update for 1H25, including 19% growth in new store roll-outs and a 10.3% like-for-like sales increase.

The analyst highlights improvements in margins compared to the previous year.

Ord Minnett raises EPS estimates by 20%-24% for FY26 and FY27, respectively.

Sigma Healthcare is set to report earnings in March, with upside potential, the broker highlights due to ASX index changes in March.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.88 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting downside of -28.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in January.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights Stanmore Resources' saleable production fell -14% for 4Q 2024 compared to the previous quarter, as expected, due to the planned shutdown and wet weather, the analyst states.

Management is expected to provide 2025 guidance at the upcoming 2024 results in February, with weather impacts carrying into the current year and an expected rebound in production in the upcoming March quarter.

The $3.40 target price and Buy rating are maintained. Citi makes minor EPS forecast changes.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.75
If SMR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SMR as Add (1) -

Stanmore Resources' 4Q saleable production and sales were 9% and 13% ahead of Morgans' forecasts respectively, and exceeded the company's FY24 guidance for saleable production by 5%. The broker notes South Walker Creek and Poitrel are producing at record levels.

The company's expected FY24 cash balance of US$289m was in line with the broker's forecast of US$308m.

The broker adjusted forecasts for 4Q actuals, lowered near-term hard coking coal pricing, higher FY25 production and re-arranged risk weights, resulting in a small downgrade in target price to $4.0 from $4.05.

Add rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $1.35
If SMR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SMR as Buy (1) -

Stanmore Resources' 4Q production of 13.8mt resulted in management exceeding its own FY24 guidance by 5% at the midpoint of the range, following a record year of production at Poitrel, observes Ord Minnett.

For 2025, the analysts forecast higher production of 14.2mt, -8% lower costs year-on-year, and a "firm" free cash flow (FCF) margin of 15%.

Buy. The $4.10 target is maintained as an increase to the broker's forecast strip ratios and unit costs is offset by a decrease to the forecast capital spend.

Target price is $4.10 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $1.45
If SMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUL as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating for Super Retail largely due to valuation concerns, and a $15.75 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $0.35
If SUL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.38, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TWE as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker sees limited near-term earnings risk and an attractive valuation for Treasury Wine Estates. Overweight rating and $14.60 target retained. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $10.50 Difference: $4.1
If TWE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.71, suggesting upside of 31.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates UNI as Buy (1) -

Citi considers information from its research innovation lab to analyse Universal Store's social media activity and user engagement to gain further insights into the company’s performance.

The analyst believes Universal is doing a "very good job" of sourcing products and merchandise customers like, generating strong sales and reducing the need for discounting.

Higher exposure to the Queensland market has also lowered exposure to more economically challenged states compared to other discretionary retailers.

The company reports on 20 February.

Citi remains Buy-rated with a target price of $8.91.

Target price is $8.91 Current Price is $8.39 Difference: $0.52
If UNI meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.69, suggesting upside of 2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VEA as Outperform (1) -

Viva Energy reported a soft 4Q25 activity report, according to Macquarie, with management pointing to 2024 earnings guidance of $750m, below the analyst's expectations.

The broker notes refining was loss-making in 4Q after being only marginally profitable in 3Q24, impacted by late crude arrivals and unplanned outages at Geelong.

Commercial and industrial fuel sales were around 3% above the analyst's forecast, with aviation, transport, and agriculture as standouts.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -19% for 2024 and -5% for 2025.

Target price decreases by -10% to $3.60. Outperform rating is unchanged.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.97
If VEA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Given a similar update by Ampol ((ALD)) on January 23, Morgan Stanley is expecting a muted sharemarket reaction to Viva Energy's 4Q update.

The Geelong refining margin of US$6.70/bbl fell short of the broker and consensus forecasts for US$9.00/bbl and US$7.92/bbl, respectively, due to unplanned outages and delay in arrivals reducing the overall intake, explains the broker.

The group's unaudited earnings EBITDA (replacement cost) of around $750m missed forecasts by the analysts and consensus by -11% and -9%, respectively, due to weak refining and fuel margins.

The Geelong refinery has restarted after another unplanned outage in early January.

Target $3.25. Equal-weight. Sector call In-Line.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.62
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VEA as Buy (1) -

UBS observes Viva Energy's 4Q24 update showed guidance for 2024 convenience and mobility at the bottom end of expectations, impacted by a consumer shift to illegal tobacco products and subsequent sales weakness.

The analyst states the refining outlook remains "challenged," with 2024 guidance falling -9% below market expectations.

UBS lowers EPS estimates by -18% for 2024 and -15% for 2025 due to a weaker refining outlook and an extension of the planned Geelong refinery outage in 3Q25 to eight weeks from five weeks.

No change to the Buy rating. Target price reduces to $3.20 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: $0.57
If VEA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 32.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Underweight rating and $60.70 target for Wesfarmers considering limited avenues for earnings upgrades in FY25/26 with softness in hardware, a strong FY24 retail performance and delays to the lithium ramp-up. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $60.70 Current Price is $75.46 Difference: minus $14.76 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $65.67, suggesting downside of -13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WHC as Buy (1) -

On first inspection, Whitehaven Coal reported a robust 2Q25 activity report, according to Citi.

Both production and sales exceeded the broker's expectations, with total sales rising 22% on the previous quarter to 7.8mt.

Management retained FY25 guidance, with run-of-mine coal production and sales at the upper end of FY25 guidance, and costs at the lower end.

December quarter sales were comprised of 63% metallurgical coal and 37% thermal coal, the broker notes.

Target price is $8.30. Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $8.30 Current Price is $6.05 Difference: $2.25
If WHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.98, suggesting upside of 47.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates WOW as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley previews first-half results for the Consumer sector, favouring staples and growth over discretionary exposure. It's felt discretionary valuations as extended, with pockets of margin pressure emerging.

Overall, Morgan Stanley expects conditions in 2025 to support a return to normalised spending growth, as tax and rate cuts ease household budget pressures.

The broker maintains an Overweight rating for Woolworths Group Industry though acknowledges potential downside risk associated with industrial action at its distribution centres. Target $34.10. View: In-line.

Target price is $34.10 Current Price is $30.14 Difference: $3.96
If WOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.14, suggesting upside of 6.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Neutral (3) -

Citi observes Zip Co's peer Sezzle upgraded guidance and app data following an increase in new customer acquisition in the US.

The analyst expects Zip Co to deliver a robust 2Q25 report in the US, with flat metrics for A&NZ total transaction value.

Citi raises earnings estimates by 2% for FY25 and 5% for FY26, reflecting a weaker AUD and higher costs.

Neutral rating is maintained. Target price increases by 5% to $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.15
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.52, suggesting upside of 7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources