Australian Broker Call

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February 15, 2018

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

Last Updated: 12:32 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
CPU - COMPUTERSHARE Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
CSL - CSL Downgrade to Hold from Add Morgans
GMG - GOODMAN GRP Upgrade to Buy from Hold Deutsche Bank
IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Upgrade to Buy from Hold Deutsche Bank
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Credit Suisse
NCM - NEWCREST MINING Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight Morgan Stanley
VCX - VICINITY CENTRES Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform Macquarie
WSA - WESTERN AREAS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral Credit Suisse
AOG  AVEO GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors

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Overnight Price: $2.67

Morgan Stanley rates AOG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes there are signs the worst is behind the company, amid encouraging early trading in 2018. First half underlying net profit was -32.7% below the prior corresponding half, a result of reduced customer interest and higher marketing costs related to media scrutiny.

The broker suggests the company has regained trust in the brand while the sale of Gasworks will provide a solid balance sheet. Overweight rating and In-Line industry view. The target is $3.25.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.58
If AOG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of -54.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates AOG as Add (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of Morgans. Operating earnings guidance for FY18 was reiterated. The broker continues to believe significant value can be realised over time but notes that sales enquiries following negative media have meant a few false starts.

Yet, improved momentum provides more confidence and the broker maintains an Add rating. Target is $3.50.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.83
If AOG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of -54.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates AOG as Accumulate (2) -

First half profit was well below Ord Minnett forecasts because of lower sales in the retirement division.

The broker envisages strong underlying value and notes FY18 guidance is maintained, implying 70% of the contribution is expected in the second half.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target is $3.60.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.93
If AOG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 37.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.2, implying annual growth of -54.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of -0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU  COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials

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Overnight Price: $17.30

ADDED

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

First half results beat Citi's estimates. The broker lifts estimates by 3% for FY18 and by 2% for FY19 to account for higher guidance. A modest improvement in transaction revenue is also forecast.

The broker considers the outlook robust and retains a Neutral rating. Target rises to $17.50 from $16.00.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: $0.2
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 39.39 cents and EPS of 75.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 80.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates CPU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half results beat Credit Suisse estimates. The result was supported by strong transaction activity and organic growth. The company has upgraded FY18 guidance to growth of 12.5%.

Considering the strong result, this is a little lower than the broker expected and the company has likely taken a cautious stance on some items.

Tax guidance suggests there will be minimal benefits to a lower US tax rate and, with the share price up 35% over the last year Credit Suisse considers the stock fair value. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target is raised to $17.60 from $15.00.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: $0.3
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.83 cents and EPS of 82.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.42 cents and EPS of 94.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare delivered a strong first half result and upgraded FY18 guidance for management EPS to increase 12.5% on FY17.

Macquarie notes this now includes a net $2.5m tax benefit, assumes equity markets and interest rate markets remain at current levels and the buy-back continues.

Target rises to $16.17 from $14.86 and Neutral retained.

Target price is $16.17 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: minus $1.13 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 41.85 cents and EPS of 85.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.20 cents and EPS of 95.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley notes event-driven fees supported the first half result and masked underlying challenges in the portfolio. To the broker, market expectations of upside from US tax reform appear misplaced.

The broker suggests closer scrutiny of valuation and earnings quality is required. Morgan Stanley remains concerned about run-offs in US and UK mortgage servicing which demand ongoing acquisitions and investment.

Underweight rating retained. Target is raised to $13.50 from $13.00. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: minus $3.8 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 53.12 cents and EPS of 82.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 55.71 cents and EPS of 86.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CPU as Hold (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. The company has upgraded FY18 guidance again, Morgans notes. The main positive was the mortgage servicing business which delivered around 9% revenue growth, including around 16% from the US mortgage servicing component.

Morgans upgrades FY18 and FY19 estimates by around 1% and 5% respectively on improved revenue/margin assumptions for both years. Target rises to $16.23 from $15.17. Hold rating maintained.

Target price is $16.23 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: minus $1.07 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.83 cents and EPS of 79.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.42 cents and EPS of 87.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Hold (3) -

First half results were ahead of Ord Minnett. The broker suggests the upgrade to guidance, to 12.5% management earnings growth, implies some residual conservatism.

Hold maintained on valuation. Target is raised to $16.00 from $15.40.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: minus $1.3 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 37.58 cents and EPS of 76.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 38.87 cents and EPS of 84.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare's result beat the broker by 9% on stronger revenues. Some of this was event-based, off cyclical lows, but the company is performing well in other divisions and cost-oust are supporting margins.

Adding in ongoing capital management capacity, the broker forecasts 15%pa earnings growth out to FY21. But latter forecasts are lower and earnings are dependent on rising global interest rates, the broker notes. Valuation thus seems full, hence Neutral retained.

Target rises to $17.10 from $15.20.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $17.30 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting downside of -8.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 51.83 cents and EPS of 81.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.19 cents and EPS of 97.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 10.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL  CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences

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Overnight Price: $150.69

ADDED

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

First half results were strong and Citi upgrades estimates for FY18-20 by 1-5%. The stock remains a preferred name because of the attractiveness of the plasma industry and the earnings growth rate of over 18%.

The broker expects Seqirus will become profitable in FY18, given the severity of the northern hemisphere flu season.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $175 from $165.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $24.31
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 212.49 cents and EPS of 471.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 229.33 cents and EPS of 554.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

First half net profit was ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. The broker upgrades forecasts for earnings per share in FY18 by 3.7%.

Management has guided to Seqirus just breaking even in FY18 but the broker suspects this is conservative.

The broker considers the stock attractive. Outperform rating and target raised to $160 from $155.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $9.31
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.31 cents and EPS of 469.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 234.52 cents and EPS of 519.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

First half results were 20% ahead of Macquaries forecast, driven by stronger than expected revenue growth for IG haemophilia and Seqirus.

FY18 guidance was increased, with NPAT expected to be between US$1,550m and US$1,600m with the mid-point up 4% relative to previous guidance. The broker believes this appears conservative and upgrades FY18/19 EPS forecasts by 3.5%. 

Outperform retained and target raised to $165 from $154.

Target price is $165.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $14.31
If CSL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 208.86 cents and EPS of 463.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 248.25 cents and EPS of 551.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates CSL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley suggests the new FY18 net profit guidance of US$1.55-1.6bn implies a conservative outlook. The broker upgrades its forecasts by 4.1% and noting the US flu season, which is early, estimates upside risk to Seqirus numbers.

Equal-weight rating and In-Line industry view are retained. Target is raised to $142 from $132.

Target price is $142.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: minus $8.69 (current price is over target).
If CSL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 205.49 cents and EPS of 439.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 225.50 cents and EPS of 482.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates CSL as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations, supported by a strong turnaround in Seqirus as well as strength in the Behring business. Immunoglobulin growth also impressed Morgans, against very tough comparables.

The broker increases net profit estimates for FY18-20 by up to 4%, mainly on the back of higher sales. While considering the stock a core holding, the broker downgrades to Hold from Add, suggesting the upside is limited at current levels. Target is raised to $156.00 from $138.40.

Target price is $156.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $5.31
If CSL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.31 cents and EPS of 466.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 234.52 cents and EPS of 520.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Accumulate (2) -

First half revenue was ahead of Ord Minnett estimates as sales growth was stronger than expected. The broker is confident the company will beat its net profit guidance in FY18 thanks to a maiden profit from Seqirus.

Accumulate rating maintained. Target is raised to $166 from $161.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $166.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $15.31
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 208.60 cents and EPS of 476.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 239.70 cents and EPS of 546.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates CSL as Neutral (3) -

CSL's profit result handsomely beat the broker, thanks to stronger sales in higher margin specialty products, stronger Seqirus sales and margins, and a favourable settlement in Europe. IG sales remained robust, with albumin the only weak point.

FY guidance was upgraded but the broker suggests this looks conservative given CSL's strong execution and dominant market position. Yet valuation is stretched. Target rises to $155 from $147, Neutral retained.

Target price is $155.00 Current Price is $150.69 Difference: $4.31
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $159.86, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 177.51 cents and EPS of 459.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 452.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 198.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 213.79 cents and EPS of 539.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 515.5, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 225.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP  DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco

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Overnight Price: $44.09

ADDED

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Citi considers FY18 guidance for net profit growth of 20% will be a stretch, given the first half growth of 6%. The broker suspects the rebound implied in the second half is too great.

Earnings forecasts for the next two years are lowered by -3-4%. Sell rating maintained. Target is raised to $43.60 from $41.60.

Target price is $43.60 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 109.50 cents and EPS of 157.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 133.80 cents and EPS of 190.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

First half results missed expectations. Credit Suisse notes the quality of the result continues to be negatively affected by one-off items, and cash conversion affected by franchisee loans. Second half expectations appear stretched to the broker.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $48.00 from $50.10.

Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $3.91
If DMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 120.00 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates DMP as Sell (5) -

First half results were weaker than Deutsche Bank expected and guidance for FY18 growth of 20% now looks even more optimistic.

The broker acknowledges the sales base comparable becomes less challenging in the second half but the Australasian margin comparable is very demanding.

Sell and $36 target retained.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: minus $8.09 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 184.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Domino's reported first half underlying NPAT of $62.9m, 5.5% growth YoY but -11% below Macquaries' estimates. FY18 guidance for NPAT growth of 20% was reaffirmed.

The broker notes growth of 35% will be required in the second half to achieve the company's guidance and views it as ambitious, suggesting risk is skewed to the downside.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and target is cut to $45 from $45.11.

Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $0.91
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 110.40 cents and EPS of 156.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 139.10 cents and EPS of 194.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -

Following the first half result Morgan Stanley notes a sales decline in Japan has been addressed and management now envisages an opportunity to drive growth.

There was less operating leverage in Europe because of waiving royalties and marketing support for former Joey's franchisees. In Australasia same-store sales growth is expected to accelerate in the second half.

Overweight rating and Cautious industry view. Target is $60.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $15.91
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 210.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates DMP as Hold (3) -

First half result missed Morgans expectations because of lower Australasian and Japanese growth, and softer margins in Europe and Japan. Management has reiterated 20% net profit growth guidance for FY18.

Morgans continues to envisage risks to Australasian sales growth and this, along with the return of operating leverage in Europe and Japan, are the key variables in the second half. The broker acknowledges guidance is achievable.

Hold maintained. Target is raised to $50.39 from $48.98.

Target price is $50.39 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $6.3
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 161.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates DMP as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was below Ord Minnett forecasts. The broker notes the stock has endured a significant reduction in its share price after missing estimates and losing its status as one that regularly surprises on the upside.

The broker envisages downside risk to consensus estimates and does not consider the valuation support at current prices compelling. Hold retained. Target is reduced to $47 from $50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $2.91
If DMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 112.00 cents and EPS of 148.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 140.00 cents and EPS of 180.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

Domino's result was -9% below the broker on lower margins in Europe and Japan despite sales meeting expectation. Second half trends suggest improvement, but the reiteration of 20% FY profit growth guidance seems a stretch, the broker suggests, given the extent of skew required.

The new world of aggregators has eroded Domino's competitive advantage away, but the broker notes the company is now engaging with aggregators globally and continues to enjoy strong market share in A&NZ. Buy retained, target falls to $57.50 from $60.00.

Target price is $57.50 Current Price is $44.09 Difference: $13.41
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $48.44, suggesting upside of 9.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.00 cents and EPS of 157.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.0, implying annual growth of 35.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 153.00 cents and EPS of 196.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 193.1, implying annual growth of 23.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS  DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

More Research Tools In Stock Analysis - click HERE

Overnight Price: $9.34

ADDED

Citi rates DXS as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with Citi. Distribution guidance for FY18 is upgraded to 4.5-5.0%. Operating metrics should improve as the broker notes Sydney office markets are strong and future supply is pushed out.

The company has announced a buyback which the broker believes could be active at current pricing. Buy rating maintained. Target reduced to $10.82 from $11.00.

Target price is $10.82 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $1.48
If DXS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 64.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 50.20 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates DXS as Underperform (5) -

First half results were slightly below Credit Suisse estimates. FY18 distribution guidance growth is marginally upgraded to 4.5-5.7%. The company plans to initiate an on-market buyback of up to 5% over the next 12 months.

The broker notes the company has now secured pre-commitments for 40% of the area vacated by Woodside ((WPL)) in Perth in December 2018. The new leases are on better-than-expected terms and set to commence as early as March/April 2019.

Underperform rating maintained. Target is $9.14.

Target price is $9.14 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates DXS as Hold (3) -

First half results were slightly ahead of Deutsche Bank estimates. Management has reaffirmed underlying guidance for 2.5-3.0% growth in earnings. Distribution guidance is also upgraded to 4.5-5.0%.

Hold rating retained on valuation. Target is $9.33.

Target price is $9.33 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates DXS as Outperform (1) -

First half results were ahead of the broker's forecasts. FY18 DPS growth guidance was raised slightly to 4.5-5.0%.

The company has announced a share buyback of up to 5% of shares on issue. Macquarie has made minor changes to EPS forecasts, raising FY18 by 0.7% and FY19 by 0.3%.

While acknowledging the headline stats reported appear worrying - LFL income fell, tenant retention of only 39% and occupancy lower - the broker retains Outperform. Target falls to $10.52 from $10.58.

Target price is $10.52 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $1.18
If DXS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.30 cents and EPS of 53.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Overweight (1) -

First half results were in line with Morgan Stanley estimates. The broker suggests office fundamentals are supportive while the improved underlying growth is overshadowed by ongoing adjustments.

Execution risks remain elevated, with the broker noting one third of FY18 trading profits are still to be secured.

Target price steady at $9.85. Industry view: Cautious. Stock rating Overweight.

Target price is $9.85 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $0.51
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 47.50 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates DXS as Accumulate (2) -

First half results missed Ord Minnett's forecasts. The increase in FY18 growth guidance, to 2.5-3.0%, reflects a reduction in the average cost of debt and possibly slightly higher occupancy, in the broker's view.

The broker retains an Accumulate rating and lowers the target to $10.30 from $10.50.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $10.30 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: $0.96
If DXS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates DXS as Sell (5) -

Dexus' result was slightly soft, the broker notes. Office markets continue to perform well but this did not translate as strongly as it should into funds from operations growth. However an upgrade to FY guidance should mean the market will look though this, the broker suggests.

Yet office cap rates are late-cycle, rent growth expectations remain elevated and the space is a crowded overweight, the broker notes. Sell retained. Target falls to $8.80 from $8.85.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $9.34 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If DXS meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.82, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.80 cents and EPS of 64.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.2, implying annual growth of -55.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 49.60 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 0.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU  FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $6.52

UPDATED

Credit Suisse rates FBU as Outperform (1) -

The company has announced a further NZ$500m in losses in its building & interiors division. Credit Suisse suggests, despite the frustrations, the company is coming to the end of this difficult chapter.

The broker's valuation target already factors in a significant negative for that division and an Outperform rating is maintained.

Target is reduced to NZ$8.40 from NZ$8.50.

Current Price is $6.52. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.22 cents and EPS of 56.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 312.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

The company has announced a further NZ$500m of new provisioning in the construction business, bringing the FY18 total to NZ$660m. The chairman of the company has resigned.

Four debt covenants have been breached. Waiver has been received by the commercial bank syndicate but not from the US PP syndicate.

Macquarie has cut FY18 to FY21 earnings forecasts by -143%, -4%, -6% and -6% respectively, on loss provision guidance and debt impact. Underperform retained and target reduced to NZ$5.62 from NZ$6.27.

Current Price is $6.52. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 42.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.8.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.91 cents and EPS of 44.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 312.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates FBU as Buy (1) -

The broker believes Fletcher's fourth profit downgrade appears more cautious. On the share price fall post trading halt, the broker suggests a valuation gap has emerged. However construction risk will overhang the share price until major projects are completed.

The dividend cut will not help either, but the broker forecasts reinstatement in FY19. A deep valuation discount to peers keeps the broker on Buy. Target falls to NZ$7.75 from NZ$8.35.

Current Price is $6.52. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.8.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 27.67 cents and EPS of 57.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.0, implying annual growth of 312.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG  GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $8.15

ADDED

Citi rates GMG as Buy (1) -

Citi upgrades FY18-20 forecasts by 1-2% on the back of the first half result. The broker notes the growth focus is now on management versus development.

The company also has options to pursue acquisitions, increase development activity or engage in capital management, although Citi considers the latter less likely.

Buy rating maintained. Target is raised to $9.66 from $9.42.

Target price is $9.66 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $1.51
If GMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.20 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

First half operating profit was ahead of Credit Suisse estimates. FY18 guidance has been upgraded to 8% growth in earnings per share.

The upgrade appears to the broker to have been driven primarily by the strength of management earnings and the benefits of the extensive debt restructuring program.

Neutral retained and target price is $8.01.

Target price is $8.01 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates GMG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

First half earnings were ahead of Deutsche Bank, with strong growth from the management division. The broker had assumed an upgrade to guidance but this was higher than expected. FY18 guidance is for operating earnings growth of 8.0%.

Deutsche Bank upgrades to Buy from Hold following the results and raises the target to $8.52 from $8.31.

Target price is $8.52 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.37
If GMG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 50.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UPDATED

Macquarie rates GMG as Outperform (1) -

First half results were broadly in line with the broker's estimates. The company has upgraded FY18 earnings growth guidance to 7.9%.

Macquarie makes modest adjustments to earnings forecasts, raising FY18 by 0.7%, FY19 by 2.2% and FY20 by 3.9%.

Expectations of rising bond yields are likely to see pressure on returns from AREITs, in the broker's opinion, but Outperform retained. Target is cut to $8.79 from $8.90.

Target price is $8.79 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.64
If GMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates GMG as Hold (3) -

First half profit was ahead of Ord Minnett estimates. Further debt restructuring benefits, increased performance fees and deployment of the high cash balance should ensure consistent growth in earnings for the next 2-3 years, in the broker's opinion.

The stock appears fully valued versus a "cheap looking" property sector so Ord Minnett's Hold rating is retained. Target is $8.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If GMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 49.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates GMG as Neutral (3) -

Goodman's underlying earnings fell slightly short of the broker but this is outweighed by a stronger than expected FY guidance upgrade, suggesting stronger earnings, lower risk and greater clarity.

Goodman's is a world-leading business with the strong tailwinds of logistics (think Amazon) and expectations of sychronised global growth, hence the broker expects further earnings and valuation upgrades.  Target rises to $8.45 to $8.30 but this is not enough to move the broker off Neutral.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $8.15 Difference: $0.3
If GMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 46.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 30.10 cents and EPS of 50.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.7, implying annual growth of 4.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG  INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $7.70

ADDED

Citi rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

First half results were better than Citi expected. The broker lifts estimates for FY18 by 9% and FY19 by 6%.

Despite a number of one-offs which dented the top line, the broker expects underlying growth, which was much stronger, will show up in FY19 and beyond.

Neutral rating maintained. Target rises to $7.50 from $7.25.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 43.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates IAG as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half net profit was ahead of Credit Suisse forecasts. The company has increased its insurance margin guidance to 15.5-17.5% of net earned premium.

Credit Suisse notes the company has maintained its FY18 natural perils guidance despite a $78m beat in the first half.

The broker envisages upside to earnings but suggests that consensus expectations are catching up to its forecasts. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is $7.50.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates IAG as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

First half results were ahead of Deutsche Bank forecasts. Lower claims costs and long-tail reserve releases were the primary drivers of the beat to estimates.

The company is putting its Asian franchise up for review and the broker suggests a return to focus on the Australasian markets would be considered a positive.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target to $7.80 from $7.00.

Target price is $7.80 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0.1
If IAG meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates IAG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes the upgraded margin guidance largely reflects higher reserve releases but also appears conservative. The broker believes the improving underlying trajectory and positive outlook in the first half bodes well for the upgrade cycle.

Strength in the franchise, defensive traits and tailwinds make the stock the broker's preferred domestic general insurance exposure.

Overweight rating retained. Industry view In-Line. Price target rises to $8.00 from $7.60.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: $0.3
If IAG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates IAG as Hold (3) -

First half results were exceptional, Morgans suggests, and well above expectations. FY18 reported insurance margin guidance was lifted by around 10%, and the main positive in the result.

Morgans upgrades FY18 and FY19 estimates for earnings per share by 18% and 9% respectively. Target is lifted to $7.19 from $6.57. The broker considers the stock fair value and a Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $7.19 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.90 cents and EPS of 45.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.20 cents and EPS of 42.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates IAG as Hold (3) -

First half results were ahead of Ord Minnett. The broker expects the underlying trajectory for earnings will remain positive and there are several potential catalysts which could also lead to upside for sentiment.

These include ongoing benefits from the insurance cycle that could lead to an overshoot in margins, cost savings, capital management and possible crystalisation of the value of the Asian assets.

Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $7.64 from $7.43.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $7.64 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

IAG's result soundly beat the broker, most notably on insurance margins which at last are seeing some expansion. The broker characterises the expansion as early-cycle leverage, but notes the bulk of the increase came out of NZ, which raises questions around sustainability.

The broker also questions why the Business division is not performing better. Target rises to $7.30 from $7.00, Neutral retained.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $7.70 Difference: minus $0.4 (current price is over target).
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.36, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.5, implying annual growth of 11.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.5, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LEP  ALE PROPERTY GROUP

REITs

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Overnight Price: $4.80

ADDED

Macquarie rates LEP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly below the broker's expectations. Management reiterated the potential for further distributions or capital management post the 2018 market rent review.

Macquarie believes this signals the confidence the group has in receiving a relatively positive outcome at the November review. As LEP is currently trading on a FY18 distribution yield of 4.3%, well above 10 year bond rates, the broker believes the stock is likely attractive to certain investors.

Neutral and $4.97 target retained.

Target price is $4.97 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.17
If LEP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.80 cents and EPS of 13.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.56.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.60 cents and EPS of 14.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.21.

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NCM  NEWCREST MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $23.09

UPDATED

Morgan Stanley rates NCM as Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight (3) -

Morgan Stanley upgrades to Equal weight from Underweight following the quarterly production report. The upgrade is driven by the view that there is minimal downside and this provides valuation support for the equity.

Company specific catalysts include results from the study that is underway at Wafi-Golpu and Cadia East, expected in the June quarter and September quarter respectively.

Target is reduced to $20.75 from $22.00.  Attractive industry view.

Target price is $20.75 Current Price is $23.09 Difference: minus $2.34 (current price is over target).
If NCM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.56, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 EPS of 59.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 84.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.5, implying annual growth of 57.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA  ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging

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Overnight Price: $3.37

ADDED

Citi rates ORA as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Citi's estimates. The broker highlights strong management and high-performing assets.

The focus has moved towards organic investment opportunities, which the broker considers is the lower-risk option, which should underpin medium-term growth.

Buy rating. Target rises to $3.70 from $3.60.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.33
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.50 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

First half results when line with Credit Suisse estimates. The broker suspects the US acquisition strategy is not quite delivering to plan. Meanwhile, US tax reforms enhance returns from internal investment over acquisition growth.

The broker considers the stock fully valued. Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and $3.45 target.

Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.08
If ORA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Macquarie rates ORA as Outperform (1) -

First half NPAT was ahead of Macquaries' forecast and 15% up on the pcp. The Australasian business performed better than the broker had expected but North America was slightly disappointing.

The company has signaled higher capex in the near and medium term, associated with $30m each of further fibre and innovation spend. Macquarie has increased FY18 eps forecast by 5% and FY19 and FY20 forecasts by 4%.

Outperform retained. Target rises to $3.54 from $3.41.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.60 cents and EPS of 17.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.50 cents and EPS of 18.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates ORA as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations. Australasia stood out for Morgan Stanley while the US disappointed. The broker lifts FY18 net profit forecasts by 3%. The broker suggests the result may also invite greater scrutiny of the newly-acquired US businesses.

Given limited upside to the target, the broker retains an Equal-weight rating. Price target $3.50. Sector view is Cautious.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.13
If ORA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates ORA as Add (1) -

First half result was ahead of expectations. Australasian operating earnings grew 11% and North American 14%. Morgans increases FY18 estimates by 2%.

Despite a number of input costs in Australasia the broker believes the strength of the underlying business is underscored by the result. Management has indicated it will maintain discipline while noting the opportunities for acquisitions in North America.

Add rating maintained. Target rises to $3.54 from $3.45.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.17
If ORA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were slightly ahead of Ord Minnett. Australasia was the highlight, exceeding the broker's forecasts at both the top line and margin. North America fell short of estimates.

Ord Minnett now has an upbeat view on growth prospects and notes, while organic investments take centre stage, the company has not ruled out further acquisitions in North America.

Accumulate retained. Target rises to $3.55 from $3.25.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $0.18
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.44, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.9.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 7.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS  PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals

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Overnight Price: $0.84

ADDED

Macquarie rates PLS as Outperform (1) -

Following the release of the company's pre-feasibility study, Macquarie has made a number of changes to its production forecasts and cost estimates.

Bringing forward DSO sales, due to commence in April, reduces the broker's forecast loss in FY18. Changes to cost estimates lift medium term forecasts by 12% to 25%.

Outperform and $1.20 target retained.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.36
If PLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.03, suggesting upside of 23.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 168.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.7, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC  RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture

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Overnight Price: $1.37

Credit Suisse rates RIC as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse envisages the risks are starting to turn to the upside. First half results were strong, with operating earnings up 18.8%.

The broker anticipates that the outcome of profit share arrangements with domestic producers will provide more insight over the next few months into the likely shape of the commercial  business.

Neutral rating retained and target raised to $1.45 from $1.35.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.08
If RIC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.88 cents and EPS of 9.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 5.15 cents and EPS of 9.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates RIC as Hold (3) -

First half profit was in line with Morgans. The broker believes the company is well-placed for the full year, plus new mills and Novacq should underpin earnings growth over the coming years.

Morgans suggests, as Australia's leading producer of premium animal nutrition solutions, the company has a strong outlook. In the near term the broker considers the stock fairly priced.

Hold rating retained. Target rises to $1.43 from $1.36.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.37 Difference: $0.06
If RIC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.22.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SSM  SERVICE STREAM LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers

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Overnight Price: $1.39

ADDED

Ord Minnett rates SSM as Buy (1) -

First half results were ahead of guidance and beat Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker suggests earnings risks remain to the upside while NBN activations and maintenance continue to ramp up.

The company also retains flexibility to pursue further bolt-on M&A. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.54.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.36
If SSM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.75.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.49.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH  TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $4.43

UBS rates TAH as Buy (1) -

Recent data show Tabcorp's second half wagering app download share increased by 1% to 22%, the second highest gain amongst all operators, yet wagering fell -1%. This suggests to the broker poor turnover conversion and lower racing yields.

It's a disappointing outcome but the stock's -13% share price decline has corrected expectations of above-trend growth, the broker believes. Buy and $5.20 target retained.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $4.43 Difference: $0.77
If TAH meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.33, suggesting upside of 20.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 21.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of 32.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL  TRANSURBAN GROUP

Infrastructure & Utilities

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Overnight Price: $11.52

Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley notes first half results were strong and revealed proportionate operating earnings growth of 11.6%.

Morgan Stanley anticipates the company will remain one of the more bond-yield sensitive stocks under coverage but suggests the existing portfolio can still generate growth in free cash flow of 7-10% over FY18-20.

Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view retained. Target is $13.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.52 Difference: $1.48
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.04, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 60.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 118.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 23.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX  VICINITY CENTRES

REITs

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Overnight Price: $2.58

ADDED

Citi rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

First half results indicate the company is tilting towards mixed use opportunities. The focus is on retail but additional fee/profit streams may become a feature as management looks to unlock the non-retail potential at its sites, Citi observes. FY18 guidance is reiterated.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $2.72 from $2.88.

Target price is $2.72 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.14
If VCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates VCX as Neutral (3) -

First half results were slightly below Credit Suisse estimates. Lower property income was offset by reduced corporate costs. Guidance is maintained and the buyback is on hold as the company turns its focus to mixed-use opportunities in the portfolio.

Credit Suisse questions the rationale behind putting the buyback on hold at a time when it would be accretive to both earnings and NTA.

Neutral rating and $2.79 target maintained.

Target price is $2.79 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.21
If VCX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Macquarie rates VCX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

First half results were in line with Macquarie's forecasts. Macquarie has lowered FY18 to FY20 FFO forecasts by -1.5% to -3.8%, primarily reflecting lower NPI growth due to churn.

Despite the stock offering compelling value, with a 6.1% FCF yield and trading -11% below NTA, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform and lowers the target price to $2.92 from $3.02.

Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.34
If VCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates VCX as Accumulate (2) -

First half results were in line with Ord Minnett. The broker believes the company should continue tapping into the investment demand and materially expand its asset sales program.

The broker envisages good value in the stock and maintains an Accumulate rating. Target is reduced to $2.95 from $3.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.37
If VCX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates VCX as Buy (1) -

Vicinity delivered an increase in funds from operations in the first half but retail operating metrics continue to disappoint, the broker notes. The new CEO is looking to embark on mixed-use developments to provide potential new income streams but retail rent will remain the primary source of income.

The deteriorating retail environment and a halt to the buyback as capital needs are considered are weighing in investor sentiment. The broker retains Buy on the discount to valuation, but wants to see a pick-up in retail sales. Target unchanged at $2.92.

Target price is $2.92 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.34
If VCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting upside of 11.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of 4.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.80 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -4.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VLW  VILLA WORLD LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers

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Overnight Price: $2.58

Morgans rates VLW as Add (1) -

First half net profit was in line with guidance and FY18 guidance for at least $41.6m in net profit was reaffirmed.

Morgans observes the company is building a sustainable higher earnings base via investing further in projects that support core competencies.

Earnings are cyclically exposed and the broker suggests the market is unlikely to re-rate the trading multiple meaningfully. Nevertheless, an Add rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $2.94 from $2.96.

Target price is $2.94 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.36
If VLW meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 33.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.82.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WPL  WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas

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Overnight Price: $31.08

ADDED

Citi rates WPL as Sell (5) -

2017 results were in line with expectations. Citi considers the acquisition of the Exxon stake in Scarborough is a good deal at fair value. The company will acquire the 50% stake for US$444m plus a US$300m milestone payment.

The broker also believes the company could have cut or underwritten dividends rather than embarked on a capital raising. The acquisition also has negative implications for Pluto and could influence dividend policy, Citi notes.

Sell rating retained. Target reduced to $25.85 from $26.53.

Target price is $25.85 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: minus $5.23 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 146.41 cents and EPS of 182.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 103.65 cents and EPS of 130.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates WPL as Underperform (5) -

2017 results were in line with Credit Suisse. The broker is astonished that Woodside, with less than 25% gearing and generating around $3bn in cash flow over the next two years, decided to carry out a $2.5bn raising to acquire Exxon's 50% stake in Scarborough for $560m.

With many questions and few answers, the broker sticks with an Underperform rating. Target is raised to $27.20 from $26.90.

Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: minus $3.88 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 145.12 cents and EPS of 186.58 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 123.09 cents and EPS of 154.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Deutsche Bank rates WPL as Hold (3) -

2017 results were ahead of Deutsche Bank estimates. The broker considers the acquisition of Exxon's share of Scarborough sound but suggests the capital raising intention - $2.5bn - is excessive, by around $2bn.

Longer term, Deutsche Bank suspects it will be difficult for the company to sustain an 80% pay-out ratio. Hold rating retained. Target is reduced to $32.00 from $34.20.

Target price is $32.00 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: $0.92
If WPL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 169.73 cents and EPS of 209.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 154.19 cents and EPS of 221.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgans rates WPL as Hold (3) -

2017 results were slightly ahead of expectations. The company has revealed plans to acquire partner Exxon's 50% interest in the undeveloped Scarborough gas field. Woodside will pay US$444m along with a further US$300m contingent payment on FID.

Morgans considers the long term fundamentals for LNG are strong but remains cautious about the size of the gamble in Scarborough and Browse. Hold rating maintained. Target rises to $30.99 from $29.89.

Target price is $30.99 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 136.05 cents and EPS of 195.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 190.46 cents and EPS of 272.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


ADDED

Ord Minnett rates WPL as Lighten (4) -

2017 earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett forecasts. The broker considers the price to be paid for the Exxon stake in Scarborough is fair and Browse capital expenditure is now significantly lower than its previous estimates.

However, the capital raising implies a sustained period of weak or negative cash flow, in the broker's opinion. Ord Minnett maintains a Lighten rating and lowers the target to $29.00 from $29.10.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: minus $2.08 (current price is over target).
If WPL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 106.25 cents and EPS of 215.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 104.95 cents and EPS of 211.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


UBS rates WPL as Buy (1) -

Woodside's result was in line with the broker after adjusting for interest expense and one-off tax items. The result is overshadowed by the announced acquisition of Exxon's 50% stake in the undeveloped Scarborough field and subsequent $2.5bn rights issue.

As long as BHP ((BHP)) does not pre-empt the transaction, Woodside will move to 75% of Scarborough and the broker sees this as a positive, ensuring greater development control and preventing a decline in Pluto output post 2025. If it does pre-empt, the stake will be 50%.

Target falls to $35.30 from $38.00 on dilution. Buy retained.

Target price is $35.30 Current Price is $31.08 Difference: $4.22
If WPL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.70, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY18:

UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.32 cents and EPS of 145.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.1, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Forecast for FY19:

UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 124.39 cents and EPS of 155.48 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 183.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 131.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WSA  WESTERN AREAS NL

Nickel

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Overnight Price: $3.31

ADDED

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse has revised nickel-based earnings estimates higher and upgrades the stock to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $3.40 from $3.15.

The company reports is first half result on February 20.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.31 Difference: $0.09
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -13.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.52 cents and EPS of 8.42 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.1, implying annual growth of 0.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.6.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.38 cents and EPS of 27.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.6, implying annual growth of 119.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Summaries
AOG AVEO Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $2.67
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.67
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.67
CPU COMPUTERSHARE Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $17.30
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $17.30
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $17.30
Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $17.30
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $17.30
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $17.30
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $17.30
CSL CSL Buy - Citi Overnight Price $150.69
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $150.69
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $150.69
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $150.69
Downgrade to Hold from Add - Morgans Overnight Price $150.69
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $150.69
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $150.69
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA Sell - Citi Overnight Price $44.09
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $44.09
Sell - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $44.09
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $44.09
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $44.09
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $44.09
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $44.09
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $44.09
DXS DEXUS PROPERTY Buy - Citi Overnight Price $9.34
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $9.34
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $9.34
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $9.34
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $9.34
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $9.34
Sell - UBS Overnight Price $9.34
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $6.52
Underperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $6.52
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $6.52
GMG GOODMAN GRP Buy - Citi Overnight Price $8.15
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $8.15
Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $8.15
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $8.15
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $8.15
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $8.15
IAG INSURANCE AUSTRALIA Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $7.70
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $7.70
Upgrade to Buy from Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $7.70
Overweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $7.70
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $7.70
Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $7.70
Neutral - UBS Overnight Price $7.70
LEP ALE PROPERTY GROUP Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $4.80
NCM NEWCREST MINING Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $23.09
ORA ORORA Buy - Citi Overnight Price $3.37
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.37
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.37
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $3.37
Add - Morgans Overnight Price $3.37
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $3.37
PLS PILBARA MINERALS Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $0.84
RIC RIDLEY CORP Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $1.37
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $1.37
SSM SERVICE STREAM Buy - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $1.39
TAH TABCORP HOLDINGS Buy - UBS Overnight Price $4.43
TCL TRANSURBAN GROUP Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $11.52
VCX VICINITY CENTRES Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $2.58
Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.58
Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $2.58
Accumulate - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $2.58
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $2.58
VLW VILLA WORLD Add - Morgans Overnight Price $2.58
WPL WOODSIDE PETROLEUM Sell - Citi Overnight Price $31.08
Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $31.08
Hold - Deutsche Bank Overnight Price $31.08
Hold - Morgans Overnight Price $31.08
Lighten - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $31.08
Buy - UBS Overnight Price $31.08
WSA WESTERN AREAS Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.31
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

27

2. Accumulate

5

3. Hold

34

4. Reduce

1

5. Sell

8

Thursday 15 February 2018

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