Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates AEL as Buy (1) -

Amplitude Energy met Bell Potter's expectation for FY25 production to reach or exceed the top end of guidance. FY25 production was 26.6PJe or 73TJe/day, vs guidance of 69-73TJ/day.

Gas pricing, however, was slightly soft and revenue missed estimates, leading to a -13% downgrade in the broker's FY25 EPS forecast.

Commentary suggests the outlook for FY26-27 is positive on incremental gains from debottlenecking and as the company monetises uncontracted gas reserves.

EPS forecasts for FY26-27 lifted by 3%. Buy. Target rises to 28c from 27c.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.05
If AEL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AEL as Outperform (1) -

Amplitude Energy reported better-than-expected 4Q25 results, as utilisation of its two Victorian gas plants rose, with Orbost running at over 98% utilisation. Average gas pricing was broadly in line with the previous quarter at $10.11 per gigajoule, Macquarie explains.

The board's renewal is progressing well, and the management team is viewed by the analyst as performing "strongly".

Macquarie trims FY25 EPS by -3%, with FY26 unchanged, and lifts the target price by 41% to 38 cents.

This includes a Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) benefit from Patricia Baleen of 7 cents, Sole resource 5 cents, offset by a slight reduction in Otway production of -3c per share.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.15
If AEL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.30, suggesting upside of 24.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AIA as Buy (1) -

Citi views the New Zealand government’s decision not to proceed with new airport regulation as a short-term positive for Auckland International Airport.

The broker notes the move removes a key overhang and contributed to the share price gaining around 3% on the day of the announcement.

The analysts also highlight Auckland Airport recently reduced passenger and airfield charges, suggesting the current regulatory framework is effective.

Earnings are set to benefit from ongoing capital expenditure and a recovery in domestic and international traffic through FY26, the broker suggests.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating and a target price of NZ$8.90.

Current Price is $6.78. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ATA as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on Atturra, highlighting valuation appeal and strong medium-term growth potential.

The broker highlights the company's exposure to a large and expanding IT services sector and estimates organic revenue growth of 6% per annum through FY28, with potential upside to 10%.

The broker forecasts a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings over the next two years, with potential to expand to 13% via stronger revenue and M&A in a fragmented market, 

Management’s long-term incentives target 9–17% EPS growth and a share price of between $1.03–1.30 by August 2027, which compares favourably to current estimates.

Ord Minnett initiates coverage with a Buy rating and a $1.05 target price.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: $0.21
If ATA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting upside of 22.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BRG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Breville Group to Buy from Neutral, with a higher target of $35.50 from $33.10, following analysis of the global coffee machine market, which gives the analyst confidence the group can double sales over the next decade.

Coffee machines represent around 50% to 60% of sales, with an estimated total addressable market of US$13bn in Breville's main markets. The segment has been growing at a compound annual rate of approximately 7% per annum.

The analyst points to additional TAM from new markets, such as Korea, China, and the Middle East, at an estimated US$2bn, with "significant" upside as coffee culture takes hold and evolves.

Korea's direct distribution model has increased market share to around 7% in FY24 from 4%, and the group is pursuing a go-direct strategy in China, which is viewed as a major opportunity.

The market is growing at 16% per annum, with coffee machine penetration per capita at around one-tenth of Korea's.

Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $29.80 Difference: $5.7
If BRG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.01, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

FY25 unaudited results were in line with both Citi and consensus forecasts, with management indicating a good start to FY26.

Citi notes US market conditions remain challenging but sees emerging positives across Trader Interactive operations.

The broker points out hiring momentum has accelerated, with Sales & Marketing roles driving a 9% year-on-year lift in Trader Interactive's headcount, signalling support for dealer engagement and growth.

Dealer numbers remain down year-on-year, though the analysts observe signs of stabilisation, including a month-on-month rise in June for the first time since September 2024.

Web traffic trends are moderating, highlights the broker, with Trucks and Equipment returning to growth and private listings up 4% year-on-year in the second half.

Citi views the CEO transition at CAR Group as expected given Cameron McIntyre’s long tenure and prior board appointment at Brambles ((BXB)).

The broker notes incoming CEO William Elliott, formerly CFO, is well regarded and familiar to the investor community, suggesting continuity in leadership and strategy.

Buy rating. Target $42.60.

Target price is $42.60 Current Price is $37.44 Difference: $5.16
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

CAR Group is due to report FY25 earnings on August 11, with Macquarie forecasting net profit after tax to rise 10% to $378 million, which is in line with consensus.

The analyst explains the Australian business is experiencing record listings, and proprietary data infers an ongoing improvement as dealer listings recover. Dealer listings generate 20% to 30% higher revenue than private listings.

Private listings also remain high but have pulled back by -10% since the July 2024 peak and represent 45% of listings, which may reflect falling used car prices, the broker explains.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by 1% for FY25 and FY26. The stock is considered "well priced". A Neutral rating and $39 target are retained.

Target price is $39.00 Current Price is $37.44 Difference: $1.56
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.40, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EVN as Hold (3) -

The highlight of Evolution Mining's June quarter report, Bell Potter observes, was record cash generation due to higher gold prices, resulting in a reduction in net debt. Production met the broker's forecast, though the cost, including Mt Rawdon, was higher than expected.

The company's FY26 guidance is for production of 710-780koz gold and 70-80kt copper, and cost of $1,720-1,880/oz. The broker highlights the cost guidance is 15% higher than FY25 actuals, but this also includes non-cash costs related to amortisation of FY25 ore stockpiles.

Overall, the broker cut the FY25 EPS forecast by -16% on higher costs, and downgraded the FY26 forecast by -13% due mainly to lower gold production and higher costs.

Hold. Target cut to $7.95 from $8.10.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $0.43
If EVN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi decides to lower its target for Evolution Mining to $7.60 from $7.70 and retain a Neutral rating following yesterday's initial assessment, summarised below.

On first take, Evolution Mining reported a robust 4Q24 update according to Citi, with operating cashflow a record at $700m for the quarter and $2.3bn for FY25, which was above consensus estimates when adjusting for early debt repayments.

The miner has guided production for FY26 of 710–780koz, which meets consensus, and copper of 70–80kt at all-in sustaining costs of $1,720–$1,880/oz.

The analyst highlights that when normalising for the miner's commodity price expectations, the lower end of guidance aligns with consensus.

Citi expects the market to be positive on the strong cash flow for FY25 and explains that normalising the FY26 guidance is challenging but in line, and capex is sitting in a five-year guidance range of -$750–$950m, which is down on a year earlier.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: $0.08
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining's 4Q25 production and all-in sustaining costs came in within guidance and met consensus but were better than Macquarie's expectations by 7% and 6%, respectively.

The analyst notes FY26 group-level guidance points to higher all-in sustaining costs, 11% above consensus and 5% above expectations, while production is in line. The full details are flagged for August 13.

Net debt, excluding bullion and leases, was lower by $147m than the $849m anticipated, while net debt improved $244m on the prior quarter after dividend payments of $62m and $29m in tax payments.

No change to the $7 target price and Underperform rating. Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS by 5% and lowers FY26 by -9% due to higher costs.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Evolution Mining met expectations on the FY25 report, with production, cost and capex all in line with the guidance. The highlight was the cashflow, Morgans notes, rising 49% q/q to $308m, leading to a -34% reduction in net debt vs December 2024 to $849m.

For FY26, the company flagged a 14% increase in cost due to inflationary pressures and non-cash items, and expects gold and copper production to be flat y/y. The broker cut its FY25 gold production estimate and lifted cost and capex forecasts.

Target cut to $7.00 from $7.40. Rating downgraded to Trim from Hold.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett describes Evolution Mining's 4Q25 report as "slightly soft" due to capex coming in 22% above its estimate and 40% higher than consensus. Production was in line with expectations, and the company has met FY25 guidance, the broker highlights.

The FY26 outlook pointed to higher costs, 11% above consensus but was in line with the broker's forecast, while guided production and capex proved in line. 

The broker reckons, on a comparative basis, the company has done well versus Northern Star Resources ((NST)) from a cash flow perspective.

EPS forecasts trimmed on higher cost outlook. Lighten. Target price $6.35.

Target price is $6.35 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Evolution Mining's 4Q25 production was in line with UBS' forecasts, and the company is meeting FY25 guidance.

The production guidance for FY26 too was largely in line with the broker's estimate, though on capex, the analyst's forecast sits at the top end of guidance.

The highlight was the cashflow due to higher gold prices, with the broker noting a -50% reduction in net debt in just 12 months. The analyst now expects the company to be net cash by December 2027.

Sell. Target trimmed to $6.60 from $6.70 on a slightly higher cost outlook.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.52 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.87, suggesting downside of -8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GDG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes investor concerns about Generation Development's Evidentia meeting the FY25 funds under management target of $18.5bn is valid and already baked into expectations.

The broker's expectation is $17.7bn as a result of market volatility, but admits the range of possible outcomes is wide. Moreover, the analyst warns there's a possibility the company may not even disclose stand-alone numbers for Evidentia at the 4Q update on July 23.

The broker is looking beyond near-term volatility and sees the stock benefiting from long-term structural growth drivers.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $5.65. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.28 Difference: $0.37
If GDG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GQG as Outperform (1) -

GQG Partners reported June net flows of US$0.7 billion, achieving first-half 2025 flows of US$8 billion. However, net flows of US$0.5 billion were below Macquarie's forecast, as the June result was weaker than anticipated.

Total funds under management rose 2.3% in June from the previous month to US$172.4 billion. Global equity FUM rose 1.2%, emerging market equity rose 3.7%, and US equity rose 2.6% in June versus May, offset by one month of relative underperformance.

Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 1.3% for FY25 and 2% for FY26. The target price rises to $2.90 from $2.80. No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.71
If GQG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 30.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HLO as Resume at Hold (3) -

Morgans resumed coverage of Helloworld Travel with a Hold rating and target price of $1.76.

The broker notes the company downgraded the FY25 EBITDA guidance in May which effectively meant three halves of weak performance despite acquisitions.

Ahead of the FY25 result on August 26, the analyst believes operating cashflow might be weaker than expected due to timing issues, with strong cashflow likely in FY26.

The broker notes the acquisition of 15% of Webjet Group ((WJL)) and will be looking forward to knowing management's intentions given the takeover proposal from BGH Capital. EBITDA forecast for FY25 cut by -7% and FY26-27 by -9%.

The broker stressed low conviction about its forecasts until it sees the return of organic earnings growth. 

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.22
If HLO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.13, suggesting upside of 42.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IPH as Outperform (1) -

IPH Ltd volumes declined by -16% in June, compared to a -10% decline for 1H25, which is well below market activity growth of 1%, Macquarie notes.

The company's market share slipped to 26.1% in June from 28.2% over 2H25, while approximately 70% of IPH's income is recurring, the broker notes.

US patent activity growth continues to remain weak, down -6.6% on a rolling quarterly basis and down -4.6% on an annualised rolling basis to April 2025.

IPH is due to report FY25 results on August 25, and Macquarie highlights the company's patent filings remain volatile, down -19% on a year earlier in June and down -16% for 2H25.

Macquarie maintains an Outperform rating and a $6.75 target. No change to EPS estimates.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $1.74
If IPH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.51, suggesting upside of 27.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JLG as Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight (3) -

Johns Lyng has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with an entity controlled by Pacific Equity Partners at $4/share.

Morgan Stanley notes the CEO holds a 17.6% stake and will vote in favour of the deal, as will other key management members.

Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target rises to $4.00 from $3.40. Industry View: In-line.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.89 Difference: $0.11
If JLG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.16, suggesting downside of -19.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LLC as Buy (1) -

Citi views the announcement of a new development project at 175 Liverpool Street, Sydney as a positive catalyst for Lendlease Group.

The $2.5bn project comprises 300 luxury apartments and 2,000sqm of retail, with works due to commence in FY27 and complete in 2030, explains the broker.

Citi highlights this win helps underpin visibility for future development earnings and notes a -50% selldown to a capital partner is expected soon.

The analysts also flag other potential catalysts including Hunter Street Overstation, Blackwattle Bay, Arden Central and the Athletes Village project tied to the 2032 Brisbane Olympics.

Buy rating. Target $6.80.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $5.09 Difference: $1.71
If LLC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.61, suggesting upside of 26.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy (3) -

Ahead of Matrix Composites & Engineering's FY25 financial results, Bell Potter noted its expectation of $78.9m group revenue, in line with the company's guidance. The broker expects underlying net loss of -$1.0m.

No changes to forecasts but the broker has flagged the risk of delays in major contract wins in 1H26 that could lead to significant earnings downgrades.

Target unchanged at 28c. Rating downgraded to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy following recent share price strength.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.02
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NCK as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights foot traffic rose markedly in June and July, achieving 2022 levels with end-of-financial-year sales, which suggests to the analyst that this could be positive for FY25 sales. The company is due to report FY25 results on August 8.

The broker also expects improved gross margins, with the UK gross margin up 410 basis points to 45.1% since the acquisition, and forecast to rise to 58% in FY27 at the mid-point. Consensus sits at 55%, compared to guidance of 57% to 59% for FY27 and FY28.

Eleven stores have been refurbished under Nick Scali branding, with twelve expected by management for FY25.

No change to Macquarie's EPS estimates, Outperform rating, or $19.90 target.

Target price is $19.90 Current Price is $18.50 Difference: $1.4
If NCK meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.35, suggesting downside of -2.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Neutral (3) -

UBS describes Northern Star’s FY26 guidance as a “trifecta” of weaker outcomes: lower production, higher costs (AISC), and elevated growth capex.

The broker cuts FY26 production forecasts by -5% to 1.73moz and the AISC estimate worsens by -18% to $2,344/oz. By way of explanation, UBS points to 5% cost inflation and sustaining capex now around $500/oz, more than double prior averages.

Management outlined a growth capex increase of circa $400m to $2.3bn in FY26, with unexpected items including KCGM tailings infrastructure and early Hemi spend.

UBS lowers its target price to $17.60 from $23.00, driven by substantial capex forecast increases and inflated opex bases. Also the broker trims near-term production estimates  primarily at Kalgoorlie and Yandal, and further deferral of Hemi. 

The Neutral rating is retained.

Target price is $17.60 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $1.18
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.95, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NXG as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter updated its timeline for production at NexGen Energy's Pattersons Corridor East area following the most recent results. The broker now expects a delay in production commencement to 2035.

All other assumptions regarding production and costs are unchanged.

Speculative Buy. Target cut to $13.55 from $16.90.

Target price is $13.55 Current Price is $10.24 Difference: $3.31
If NXG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates QAN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi prefers Qantas Airways over Virgin Australia citing superior exposure to international and low-cost carrier segments, which are viewed as key growth drivers in the current market.

Qantas is better positioned to capture incremental demand from Western Sydney Airport, highlight the analysts, with commitments already in place, unlike Virgin.

Also, Qantas is expected to benefit from fuel cost tailwinds and its new distribution strategy, launched in July, which Citi believes will offer a relative cost advantage.

Domestic market growth is seen as modest, with top-line gains largely price-driven, notes the broker.

Citi upgrades Qantas to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $12.20 from $9.60.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $10.98 Difference: $1.22
If QAN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.18, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto's June quarter production improved from March, observes Citi, led by stronger copper output, with 2025 copper volumes now expected at the high end of guidance and costs at the low end.

Pilbara iron ore shipments rose on the quarter but fell short of the broker's estimates by -3%, with SP10 comprising around 30% of volumes, underscoring the need for new mine supply and Rhodes Ridge.

Rio has consolidated its Pilbara Blend and SP10 into a new 60.8% iron fines product, reducing the product suite from seven to five to improve handling efficiency.

Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) production fell -29% due to weather and logistics issues at Fenix, explain the analysts. Net debt rose by US$7.6bn following the Arcadium (lihium) acquisition.

Citi makes modest changes to profit forecasts, lifting 2025 by 1.5% and trimming 2026 by -1%. A Neutral rating and $113 target price are retained.

Target price is $113.00 Current Price is $110.52 Difference: $2.48
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Rio Tinto's 2Q25 operating performance and now sees 2% upside risk to its 1H EBITDA forecast on better pricing.

The broker, however, flags risks ahead from tariff impacts and revenue decline from a lower iron ore grade from the 2H, though an offset could come from improving efficiency and product mix.

Iron ore production in 2Q was 5.3% ahead of the broker's forecast.  Copper was 6.3% higher than the broker's estimate and 10.7% higher than consensus, leading to an upward revision to FY25 guidance.

Equal-weight. Target price $118. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $118.00 Current Price is $110.52 Difference: $7.48
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett views the June quarter production from Rio Tinto as good, although iron ore shipments came in lower than expected due to maintenance at Pilbara ports. Production for the quarter was better than consensus and one of the highest in seven years.

The analyst notes copper production was above expectations due to higher grades and recovery rates at Oyu Tolgoi. Escondida and Kennecott also performed better than anticipated.

Lithium performed below expectations, and management retained 2025 production guidance, including iron ore at the lower end of the target band, while copper and bauxite are now flagged at the upper end of the range.

Ord Minnett lifts 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts by 0.2%. Buy. Target unchanged at $120.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $110.52 Difference: $9.48
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

UBS views Rio Tinto's June quarter production as reasonable, given the mixed results over the last five years.

Iron ore shipments at 80mt were lower than expected, while production at 84mt was robust. The analyst notes the recovery in port facilities after four months of cyclones.

Inventory is expected to normalise over 3Q and 4Q of 2025. The realised price came in at US$90dmt, a discount of -4% to the benchmark.

Simandou's first production is flagged for November 2025, with 0.5 to 1mt of shipments anticipated. No guidance has yet been provided for 2026 due to uncertainty surrounding the wet season.

Aluminium at 842k tonnes and alumina at 1.8mt met expectations, while bauxite at 15.6mt came in above consensus and is expected to meet the upper end of guidance, as Amrun exceeds nameplate capacity.

Rio Tinto noted the tariff rise to 50% from 25% is currently not being offset by a higher premium. The stock is rated Neutral, with a $115 target price.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $110.52 Difference: $4.48
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $113.33, suggesting upside of 1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates STO as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Citi expect Santos to post a solid June quarter, with production, sales, and revenue forecast to be around 4% ahead of consensus estimates, largely due to stronger WA gas output.

The broker anticipates confirmation of Barossa first gas in August and sees a potential catalyst if unused contingency capex of US$200–300m is released.

Citi also sees upside risk to the Pikka project timeline, suggesting first oil could be brought forward by six months from the current 2H26 base case.

While the share price reflects deal risk, the broker continues to believe the merger will complete with the consortium led by XRG P.J.S.C. (a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company).

Citi retains a Buy rating and a target price of $8.89.

Target price is $8.89 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $1.16
If STO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STO as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie anticipates the completion of due diligence by XRG and Carlyle in August, and a proposal for Santos should become binding, subject to regulatory approvals.

The analyst views the most desirable assets as being in PNG and Australia. Darwin LNG and GLNG are considered less sensitive to FIRB scrutiny.

Macquarie believes there is a potential pathway to completion by the first quarter of 2026.

An Outperform rating and $8.65 target are retained.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $0.92
If STO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.16, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates TYR as Buy (1) -

Morgans notes Tyro Payments is convinced the proposed regulatory changes from the RBA's review of payment costs and surcharging won't impact its profitability. The company believes it could become a net acquirer of merchants.

The broker, therefore, believes the impact of the proposed surcharging changes has been overstated.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.55.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.59
If TYR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 61% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting upside of 34.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates VGN as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -

Citi initiates coverage on Virgin Australia with a Neutral rating, noting a stable domestic market but limited top-line growth potential as higher fares may cap passenger volumes. A $3.30 target is set.

Virgin's forward schedule growth matches its historical cancellation rate, raising questions for the broker over whether price and volume growth can both exceed trend.

International and low-cost carrier segments are viewed as key growth drivers, where Citi sees Qantas Airways as better positioned, particularly with commitments to Western Sydney Airport.

The broker also flags potential cost pressures for Virgin, including aircraft lease renewals in a rising rate environment and a less favourable distribution strategy compared to Qantas.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.17
If VGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources