Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AD8 as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie assessed the FY24 preliminary earnings and FY25 guidance from Audinate Group as an opportuntity to reset the company's earnings outlook and market expectations 

The analyst stresses the current share price is only pricing in the audio hardware and while the transition to software could be "challenging" it is viewed as a separate issue to management's earnings downgrade.

Macquarie highlights the significant -58% revision in FY25 EPS forecasts but, Audinate Group's core business remains solid, with strategic plans to address known issues. The transition to software products is expected to improve gross margins.

The target price is revised to $10.50 from $14.40 and the stock is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: $2.22
If AD8 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting upside of 45.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AD8 as Buy (1) -

Following pre-released FY24 results for Audinate Group, UBS upgrades FY24 numbers in line with guidance but cuts FY25 and beyond significantly to reflect headwinds and a more conservative medium-term growth profile.

The broker explains FY24 benefited from over-ordering by OEMs, catch-up benefits with the return of chip supply, and an unwinding of the backlog. Also, AVIO adaptor promotions contributed to the positive FY24 performance.

The UBS target is slashed to $10.90 from $22.80 on lower earnings forecasts. Awaiting greater clarity around video momentum the broker removes -$2.01/share from the valuation to reflect a potential 2% share of the digital video networking opportunity.

Buy. The broker still believes in the long-term structural shift to digital from analogue, Audinate's strong leadership position and a deep moat which is superior to anything under UBS's Emerging Companies coverage. The large upside opportunity from video is also noted.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: $2.62
If AD8 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.74, suggesting upside of 45.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

AMP reported considerably better than expected 1H24 earnings according to Citi as part of the analyst's first take on the results.

Net profit came in above the broker's forecast and consensus by 11% and Citi is enthused by AMP's long-term solution to its advice business, which is expected to be transformed by the end of 2024.

Management highlighted the cost out of $660m is tracking to be met by the end of 2024 with lower costs for platforms, superannuation and investments. The latter also reduced net outflows.

AMP Bank reported a higher net interest margin of 114basis points, the analyst notes. The interim 2c dividend, 20% franked, was as expected. 

Buy rating and $1.25 target unchanged.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.12
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.19, suggesting downside of -7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BKW as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Despite the potential for anemic US earnings in the next 6-9 months, UBS prefers US building materials exposure over exposures in the A&NZ region.

While UBS' proprietary data show 2024 market volumes are broadly flat year-on-year, large US builders continue to take market share and pricing traction for building materials companies remains.

The analyst remains cautious on Brickworks and reduces the target by -8% to $30 due to a softer Australian building materials outlook and a decrease in the broker's property valuation driven by increasing capitalisation rates.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.47 Difference: $2.53
If BKW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $30.38, suggesting upside of 12.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CAR as Buy (1) -

To reflect lower peer multiples, Citi lowers its target for CAR Group to $39.30 from $39.80. Buy.

The brokers earnings changes offset each other. The positive from a weaker Australian dollar is countered by weaker trading conditions in the US, which causes a fall in 1H FY25 revenue growth forecasts for Trader Interactive.

Citi still values both Trader Interactive and Webmotors at a premium to global peers due to their stronger growth outlook and strong market positions.

Target price is $39.30 Current Price is $32.59 Difference: $6.71
If CAR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.02, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett forecasts CommBank's 2H profit will be $4.64bn (consensus $4.79bn) resulting in a FY24 profit of $9.66bn (consensus $9.77bn). 

The broker expects a final dividend of $2.40/share, bringing the full year payout to $4.55/share, and a contraction in net interest margin (NIM) of -3bps to 1.95% in 2H from the 1H.

Sell. Target $95.

Target price is $95.00 Current Price is $127.34 Difference: minus $32.34 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $96.69, suggesting downside of -24.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CLW as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on the Charter Hall Long WALE REIT FY24 results show EPS meeting expectations and in line with guidance, while net property income grew at a faster than forecast rate of 4.7%.

The broker highlights higher operating expenses and finance costs.

Management's FY25 EPS guidance of 25c is slightly lower than the Citi forecast of 26.2c, with the REIT continuing its asset divestment program.

Net gearing has declined to 37.6% from 41.2% and asset values fell -9.8% against June 2023.

An additional $50m buyback was announced and Citi believes the results today will be viewed as a "negative" for Charter Hall ((CHC)).

Neutral rating and $3.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.46 Difference: $0.04
If CLW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.61, suggesting upside of 3.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie assesses the Coronado Global Resources 1H24 earnings report as mixed. Revenue met both the broker's and consensus expectations, but profits were lower than forecasts because of a -$20m hit from higher finance costs.

The analyst highlights EBITDA exceeded expectations by 3%, and a US$0.005 dividend was announced, meeting the aims of the coal miner's capital management policy.

Macquarie adjusts FY24 EPS forecast by -27% and retains the $2.10 target price. Outperform rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.8
If CRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CRN as Speculative Buy (1) -

Coronado Global Resources' first half result was in line with the earlier quarterly report, featuring a substantial rebound in earnings predominantly driven by reduced costs.

The most comforting takeaway for Morgans is management’s reducing trajectory for mining costs into the US$80/t range, driven by improved volume and productivity gains.

The broker finds the long-awaited turnaround highly encouraging, but notes there are still potential bumps in the road in the form of surprisingly weaker-than-expected coal prices and potential delay to the development of the Mammoth underground operation.

That said, Morgans suggests the stock remains too cheap. Speculative Buy and $1.85 target retained.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.55
If CRN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie believes the market will be focused on Downer EDI's ability to generate over 30% growth in net profit for FY25, off the back of the upcoming FY24 results on August 30.

The analyst is forecasting -$100m of phase 1 cost outs in FY25, while the New Zealand operations continue to experience headwinds from tough macroeconomic conditions.

Macquarie tweaks EPS estimates by 3.7% for FY25 and the target price is revised to $4.86 from $4.90. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $4.86 Current Price is $4.79 Difference: $0.07
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.12, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GQG as Buy (1) -

Yesterday, GQG Partners released net inflow numbers for July of around $2.8bn which positively surprised and UBS suggests flow momentum can persist, supported by the company's global distribution.

The broker highlights an implied additional $1bn of inflows in the institutional channel, which has generally been in net outflow in
recent years.

Buy rating and $3.25 target unchanged.

GQG Partners are due to report earnings on August 16.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.57
If GQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 28.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GTK as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Gentrack Group with an Overweight rating. Mission critical systems are provided in the form of billing software to utilities (primarily energy and water) and flights and resources management for airports with its Veovo suite.

The broker points out subscription earnings are highly defensive and the most profitable part of the revenue base. More subscription revenue implies continued margin improvement and higher terminal margins, explain the analysts.

Positively for potential contract wins, operational complexity and legacy technology issues are creating elevated churn at legacy incumbents, highlights Morgan Stanley.

A $12.80 price target is set. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $12.80 Current Price is $9.12 Difference: $3.68
If GTK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 22.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GYG as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Mexican-inspired quick-service restaurant (QSR) operator Guzman y Gomez with an Overweight rating, based on attractive growth potential, and a $31.80 target price. Industry View: In-Line.

The analysts highlight several positives including: a unique offering that resonates with consumers; strong unit economics; and the ability to scale via the capital-light franchisee model.

Volume growth will drive operational leverage, according to the broker, and provide a significant tailwind to margins and profitability over the next 3-5 years.

Target price is $31.80 Current Price is $28.82 Difference: $2.98
If GYG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.30, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates HCL as Speculative Buy (1) -

HighCom returned to earnings (EBITDA) profitability in the 2H, recording $2m for a full-year result of -$10m, and Bell Potter is cautiously optimistic of a much-improved FY25. The FY24 result met prior management guidance.

Management does not currently believe it will need to raise additional equity with the cash balance at June 30 of $6.2m, up from $1.6m at the end of 2023.

The Speculative Buy rating and 35c target are unchanged.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.125
If HCL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ILU as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to 1H results for Iluka Resources, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $6.75 from $6.70. The Equal-weight rating remains. Industry view is In-Line.

The broker will be looking for any update to 2024 guidance, and the outlook for 2H pigment/zircon demand.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $5.56 Difference: $1.19
If ILU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.18, suggesting upside of 30.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates JAN as Buy (1) -

Janison Education pre-announced its FY24 results with revenue and cash flow coming in below the Shaw and Partners forecasts.

The broker believes Janison Insights continues to grow and remains a key asset, potentially worth $90-100m. It remains undervalued by the market.

FY25 is anticipated by the analyst to be a transition year with cash flow remaining positive, supported by $10m in cash and no debt.

Shaw and Partners is looking to the new CEO, Sujata Stead, who will present her strategy in September, with an emphasis on leveraging Janison Insights for growth, the broker notes.

Target price is revised to 33c from 70c, and a Buy (High risk) rating retained.

Target price is $0.33 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.09
If JAN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JHX as Buy (1) -

Despite the potential for anemic US earnings in the next 6-9 months, UBS prefers US building materials exposure over exposures in the A&NZ region.

While UBS proprietary data show 2024 market volumes are broadly flat year-on-year, large US builders continue to take market share and pricing traction for building materials companies remains.

The broker's $60 target and Buy rating for James Hardie Industries are unchanged.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $50.29 Difference: $9.71
If JHX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $57.73, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LBT as No Rating (-1) -

LBT Innovations has signed an agreement to sell five APAS Independence instruments to AstraZeneca and to provide annual maintenance and support services over seven years.

Management notes that this is indicative of how other large pharmaceutical companies might consider adoption of the APAS technology.

While it was previously flagged, Morgans considers this a positive announcement.

The broker does not provide a rating or target at this stage, rather it is monitoring the stock.

Current Price is $0.02. Target price not assessed.

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LTM as Buy (1) -

In a first look at today's 2Q results for Arcadium Lithium, Citi notes better-than-expected earnings (EBITDA) of $99.1m bringing the 1H total to $208m. 

Negative operating cash flow (OCF) of -$120m was impacted by -$145m in one-offs which management does not expect in the 2H.

Due to a weaker market outlook for lithium prices, Arcadium Lithium will pause spending at the 40kt LCE James Bay, stage expansions in Argentina and review Mt Cattlin. The implied 2024-2026 capex spend is around -$1.1bn, down from -$1.6bn, notes the broker. 

The target price falls to $6.50. Buy.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $2.19
If LTM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 83.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTM as Outperform (1) -

Arcadium Lithium management has decided to cease expansion plans to retain cash and margins, Macquarie highlights at the 2Q24 earnings report.

The company served up better than expected earnings, but free cashflow was lower than forecast and net debt higher than the analyst's expectations.

Macquarie revises 2024 EPS forecasts by 46% and 2025 by 22%.

Outperform rating and $6.60 target are retained.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $4.31 Difference: $2.29
If LTM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.65, suggesting upside of 83.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MDR as No Rating (-1) -

MedAdvisor recorded June quarter operating revenue up 32% and FY24 revenue up 24.6%, in line with guidance. A full result release is due later in the month.

Management is happy with the strong momentum throughout FY24 to date which has continued into 1Q25. The strong performance over the year highlights the critical role of its innovative solutions for clients in the US and A&NZ, Morgans suggests.

The broker does not provide a rating or target, rather is monitoring the stock.

Current Price is $0.43. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on explorer Meteoric Resources which has a large resource of rare earth ionic adsorption clay within a tenement at the Pocos de Caldas geological feature in Brazil.

The resource could sustain mining for decades, notes the broker, but the company's limited finances increase the risks of the project stalling.

While the mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) is suitable for rare earth separation plants, securing off-take for this product is critical, caution the analysts.

The company will require a large capital raise to complete feasibility studies, points out the broker.

Ord Minnett begins with a Speculative Buy rating and 20c target.

The broker also initiates coverage today on Viridis Mining and Minerals (Hold) which holds an adjacent tenement.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.112
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 255.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first take on the FY24 Mirvac Group results were in line with expectations, but the FY25 EPS guidance has come in -10.6% below consensus forecast.

The earnings results suggest a 14c dividend which is at the lower end of guidance, the broker notes pre-earnings call, observing lower margins in the apartment business, higher interest and lower commercial development profits.

Over $500m in asset sales is included in the guidance, while gearing and borrowing costs rose.

Citi does not anticipate any negative "read-throughs" to the upcoming Stockland results due to the different apartment exposure.

Neutral rating and $2.10 target price unchanged.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates NEU as Buy (1) -

Second quarter Daybue sales for Neuren Pharmaceuticals of US$84.6m missed the consensus forecast by around -US$4m as the extent of net patient increases were slower-than-expected, explains Bell Potter.

The analysts are not overly concerned by the miss, reminding investors Daybue has been a commercial success, and Bell Potter forecasts licensing income totalling more than $800m over the next six years. 

The Buy rating is unchanged, and the target drops to $25 from $28. The broker's target price is made up of $10/share for the Daybue licensing stream (down from $13) and $15/share for NNZ-2591, for which Bell Potter continues to have strong conviction.

Target price is $25.00 Current Price is $17.09 Difference: $7.91
If NEU meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NST as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to FY24 results for Northern Star Resources, Morgan Stanley raises its target to $14.35 from $13.70. The Equal-weight rating remains. Industry view is In-Line.

The broker awaits an update on the Thunderbox mill which is is on track to operate at nameplate (6Mtpa) in the 1H of FY25, as well as progress for the KCGM mill expansion project which commenced in the 4Q of 2023.

Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $14.16 Difference: $0.19
If NST meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.51, suggesting upside of 12.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NXT as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts had a minor change of heart, reducing FY25/FY26 EBITDA forecasts by -3%/-11% and considering there's plausible downside to consensus forecasts due to higher costs in combination with slower billing ramp.

They also see upside to consensus contracted utilisation forecasts, which should translate to stronger earnings over the medium to long term.

On that basis, Citi reiterates its Buy rating with a slightly reduced price target of $19.25 (down from $19.75). 

Also, the analysts state lack of inventory in Sydney is an issue, but the company's position in Melbourne could prove a bonus as demand could be shifting to Melbourne given capacity constraints in Sydney.

Target price is $19.25 Current Price is $15.60 Difference: $3.65
If NXT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.06, suggesting upside of 30.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PMT as Buy (1) -

Patriot Battery Metals updated the mineral resource estimate for the Shaakichiuwaanaan project, previously known as Corvette, Shaw and Partners notes, increasing it to 142.6Mt at 1.38% Li2O.

The broker highlights this confirms its position as the largest lithium pegmatite in the Americas.

Despite recent lithium price fluctuations, the analyst stresses the project is highly leveraged to higher prices. The valuation increases 30% for every US$100/t rise in 6% spodumene prices, 

Shaw and Partners does point to the environmental and First Nation approval processes as a potential risk but highlights management has a well-defined path to address the process.

No changes to earnings forecasts and the broker retains a Buy rating (High risk) with a $1.80 target price.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $1.34
If PMT meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 291% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.26, suggesting upside of 180.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PMV as Buy (1) -

In an initial response to today's trading update released by Myer, Citi analysts observe there's an elevated level of price discounting going on while cost pressures continue to feature.

Flattish sales growth contrasts with recent updates from the likes of Accent Group ((AX1)) and Universal Store ((UNI)) that were both positive, the analysts highlight.

Citi analysts do not see any consequences for Premier Investments though the broker notes its sales forecasts are slightly below consensus and margin contraction of some -110bps for H2 is already assumed.

Buy rating retained pending strategic review and potential synergies. Target $36.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $31.18 Difference: $4.82
If PMV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.03, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes capacity growth for Qantas Airways in FY25 is expected to be more conservative, with load factors slightly weaker domestically but improved on-time performance boosting productivity.

The broker highlights yield trends are reflecting slower growth, with international load factors and yields expected to slip due to the normalisation of capacity on major routes.

Macquarie adjusts EPS estimates for FY24 and FY25 by -1% and 1%, respectively.

Target price is lifted to $6.30 from $6. Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $6.30 Current Price is $5.97 Difference: $0.33
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.79, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates REA as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter anticipates a strong FY24 performance by REA Group when releasing FY24 results tomorrow and upgrades to Buy from Hold following the recent share price pullback.

The analysts point to positive operating conditions, underpinned by ongoing increases in total loan originations supported by recent tax cuts and potential for upcoming interest rate cuts.

Bell Potter forecasts revenue and earnings (EBITDA) of $1,468m (consensus $1,443m), and earnings (EBITDA) of $809m (consensus $813m).

The target rises to $218 from $203.

Target price is $218.00 Current Price is $190.79 Difference: $27.21
If REA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $209.66, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates REH as Sell (5) -

Despite the potential for anemic US earnings in the next 6-9 months, UBS prefers US building materials exposure over exposures in the A&NZ region.

While UBS proprietary data show 2024 market volumes are broadly flat year-on-year, large US builders continue to take market share and pricing traction for building materials companies remains.

The broker raises its target for Reece by 14% to $20.50 on higher US earnings assumptions. Sell.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $26.02 Difference: minus $5.52 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.45, suggesting downside of -15.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RMC as Buy (1) -

Resimac Group's trading update on August 2 showed both the mortgage book and settlements running slightly ahead of Bell Potter's forecasts. Asset Finance settlements slightly disappointed the broker, implying a flat 2H compared to the 1H.

Management expects FY24 normalised profit in the range $42-44m, ahead of the broker's prior $41.8m estimate. Results are due on August 29.

The Buy rating and $1.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.87 Difference: $0.43
If RMC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.12, suggesting upside of 31.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RRL as Overweight (1) -

Prior to FY24 results for Regis Resources, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $1.85 from $1.90. The Overweight rating remains. Industry view is Attractive.

The broker keenly awaits further updates on the progression of McPhillamy's.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $0.255
If RRL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.97, suggesting upside of 25.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RWC as Buy (1) -

Despite the potential for anemic US earnings in the next 6-9 months, UBS prefers US building materials exposure over exposures in the A&NZ region.

While UBS proprietary data show 2024 market volumes are broadly flat year-on-year, large US builders continue to take market share and pricing traction for building materials companies remains.

The broker's target for Reliance Worldwide falls by -9% to $5.90 on a combination of revised earnings and a decrease in the relative valuation.

While the company faces a tougher volume outlook, the analyst points to falling copper prices and a marginally better UK outlook.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: $1.2
If RWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.44, suggesting upside of 16.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Equal-weight (3) -

Prior to FY24 resdults for South32, Morgan Stanley lowers its target to $2.95 from $3.05.

The analysts predict management will undertake a US$100m buy-back in the 2H of FY25 driven by cash received (US$1,050) from the Illawarra sale.

The Equal-weight rating is maintained. Industry view: Attractive. 

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.88 Difference: $0.07
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.69, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TCL as Buy (1) -

In an early response to today's FY24 result for Transurban Group, Citi notes an overall in-line outcome for both FY24 and the FY25 DPS guidance of 65cps. The FY24 DPS number was pre-announced at 62cps. 

Proportional earnings (EBITDA) of $2,361m were a slight miss against forecasts by the broker and consensus for $2,697m and $2,668m.

Citi assesses the group's balance sheet remains sound.

Buy. Target $14.30.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $1.42
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.31, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VMM as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett initiates coverage on explorer Viridis Mining and Minerals which has a large resource of rare earth ionic adsorption clay within a tenement at the Pocos de Caldas geological feature in Brazil.

The resource could sustain mining for decades, notes the broker, but the company's limited finances increase the risks of the project stalling.

While the mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) is suitable for rare earth separation plants, securing off-take for this product is critical, caution the analysts.

The company will require a large capital raise to complete feasibility studies, points out the broker.

Ord Minnett begins with a Hold rating as a small market capitalisation constricts equity funding capacity. A $1.00 target is set.

The broker also initiates coverage today on Meteoric Resources (Speculative Buy) which holds an adjacent tenement.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.39
If VMM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi no longer holds a short-term negative view on Woodside Energy which was originally based on negativity around the Driftwood acquisition which has now largely played-out following market reaction to recent acquisitions.

The analysts still list potential negatives for the company from slowing crude demand and robust supply growth, as well as a potential peak for gearing above the consensus forecast.

Neutral rating. Target $28.

Target price is $28.00 Current Price is $25.40 Difference: $2.6
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.08, suggesting upside of 24.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources