Australian Broker Call

Citi rates A2M as Buy (1) -

Citi previews a2 Milk’s half-year result, trimming its FY26 profit forecast by -2% on lower interest income, while forecasting revenue and earnings (EBITDA) slightly below consensus.

Earnings risk is seen as skewed to the upside, with the broker highlighting supportive guidance, stable English label pricing, and improving China sell-through.

Port data, industry updates and stronger momentum in newer products reinforce confidence, according to the analyst.

Citi retains a Buy rating and lowers its target to $10.40 from $10.45.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.18 Difference: $1.22
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.77, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ALD as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley lifted Ampol's FY25 EPS forecast by 5.9% but lowered FY26 by -5.7%.

Overweight stays. Target cut to $33 from $34. 

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $30.52 Difference: $2.48
If ALD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $35.33, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ALL as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder has agreed to pay US$127.5m (around $190m) to Aristocrat Leisure to settle IP misappropriation and infringement claims, Citi notes. The two companies have agreed on confidential processes to address any remaining or future game-related issues.

The broker views the settlement as a positive outcome for Light & Wonder, removing a key overhang, with the size of the settlement in line with market expectations.

Buy retained. Target unchanged at $71.

Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $57.22 Difference: $13.78
If ALL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $74.01, suggesting upside of 29.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi expects further capital return initiatives with AMP's FY25 result, supported by strong platform flows, cost control, and stabilising bank earnings.

Attractions are seen despite low bank returns, with the broker citing scope for platform multiple expansion as the share price has fallen.

The  broker's forecast earnings tweaks are modest after mark-to-market and debt repayment adjustments.

Citi keeps its $2.10 target and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.78 Difference: $0.32
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 9.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Upgrade to Hold from Trim (3) -

Following the recent share price pullback, Morgans upgraded Baby Bunting's rating to Hold from Trim.

The broker notes refurbished stores continue to outperform expectations, with the initial three delivering 30% sales growth, and further performance updates expected at the 1H26 result.

No change to forecasts or valuation, with risk–reward now considered as more balanced at 14x FY27 estimated PE. Target price $2.70.

This report was published Friday.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.59 Difference: $0.11
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 21.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi views Brambles’ recent share price underperformance as an opportunity, despite a muted consumer environment and near-term uncertainty.

Comfort is drawn by the broker from factors which de-risk 2H of FY26, alongside confidence in volumes and margin drivers extending from FY26 into FY27.

Upside to medium-term earnings is identified, with the analyst seeing an attractive 12-month outlook.

Citi upgrades to Buy from Neutral and retains a target of $26.75.

Target price is $26.75 Current Price is $22.71 Difference: $4.04
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $26.78, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CGF as Buy (1) -

Citi sees Challenger’s share price primarily driven by proposed APRA capital setting changes, viewed as materially positive despite capital returns likely not commencing until at least July 2026.

Medium-term upside underpins the broker's confidence, with the analysts highlighting a positive 1H26 mark-to-market benefit to statutory earnings, offset by expected 2Q Life book contraction.

The broker's normalised EPS forecasts rise on lower dilution and FY26 estimates align with company guidance.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $10.25.

Target price is $10.25 Current Price is $9.13 Difference: $1.12
If CGF meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.86, suggesting upside of 6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter highlights rising copper, zinc and silver prices as supportive for Develop Global, lifting its commodity price deck and flagging improving revenue and margin potential at Woodlawn.

The broker points to tailwinds from elevated silver prices accelerating stream liability repayment and lower aggregate treatment charges and refining charges, alongside several near-term operational and corporate catalysts.

The analysts' earnings forecasts rise on higher commodity assumptions, with Develop Global viewed as an undervalued small-cap copper-zinc exposure as Woodlawn de-risks.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises its target to $5.80 from $5.20.

This report was published on January 9.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $4.96 Difference: $0.84
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EMR as Sell (5) -

After three consecutive quarters of disappointment, Emerald Resources' production at Okvau gold mine in the December quarter met Ord Minnett's expectations. Improved recoveries drove the turnaround. 

While AISC (cost) is expected to be at the upper end of guidance, cash levels remain solid and gold sales timing explains the production-sales variance, the broker notes.

Growth optionality remains via Okvau expansion and the Memot and Dingo Range projects, in the broker's view. FY26 EPS estimate trimmed by -0.9% and FY27-28 modestly upgraded by 0.1%.

Sell rating. Target unchanged at $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $6.30 Difference: minus $1.4 (current price is over target).
If EMR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley trimmed Lendlease Group's FY26 EPS forecast by -14% and FY27 by -3.7%. Target cut to $5.70 from $6.58.

Equal-weight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.6
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.18, suggesting upside of 21.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LNW as Buy (1) -

Light & Wonder has agreed to pay US$127.5m (around $190m) to Aristocrat Leisure to settle IP misappropriation and infringement claims, Citi notes. The two companies have agreed on confidential processes to address any remaining or future game-related issues.

The broker views the settlement as a positive outcome for Light & Wonder, removing a key overhang, with the size of settlement in line with market expectations.

Buy retained. Target unchanged at $175.

Target price is $175.00 Current Price is $154.70 Difference: $20.3
If LNW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $187.67, suggesting upside of 3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SDF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie's insurance proprietary pricing data showed December was strong for Workers’ Compensation, while Personal Motor and Home pricing remained weak. The quarter represents around 22% of annual gross written premiums for both Commercial and Personal Lines on Sunrise.

Within Steadfast Group's portfolio, Home was the key drag in December, down -0.2%, though the broker estimates the overall portfolio achieved 2.2% pricing growth in the December quarter. This is consistent with FY26 guidance of 1-2%.

No change to forecasts. Neutral rating and $4.90 target are unchanged.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: minus $0.43 (current price is over target).
If SDF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUL as Buy (1) -

In a flash update following the release of Super Retail's 1H26 trading update, Citi advised the forecasts are under review.

Group sales of $2.195bn were -1% below the broker's forecast, though it met consensus.  Underlying profit before tax guidance of $172-175m missed Citi's forecast by -9% and the consensus by -7% at the midpoint.

The shortfall was driven by Rebel, where increased discounting pressured margins, with EBIT estimated to be -15% to -20% below the broker and consensus expectations.

Buy rating. Target $20.50.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $15.72 Difference: $4.78
If SUL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.13, suggesting upside of 21.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VEA as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley lifted Viva Energy's FY25 EPS forecast by 5.1% and FY26 by 2.1%. Target rises to $2.13 from $2.05.

Equal-weight stays.

Target price is $2.13 Current Price is $2.07 Difference: $0.06
If VEA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 36.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WTC as Buy (1) -

Citi reckons WiseTech Global's move to include Transitional Pricing Protection as part of the commercial model/Cargowise Value Packs rollouts could result in lower-than-expected 2H revenue growth.

On the positive side, freight volumes are tracking ahead of expectations, with 1H26 up 5% y/y, posing an upside risk to the broker's revenue assumptions and reducing the 2H skew.

Declining headcount across WiseTech and E2open points to potential margin upside, partly offset by FX headwinds.

Buy retained. Target unchanged at $109.15.

Target price is $109.15 Current Price is $67.01 Difference: $42.14
If WTC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $114.02, suggesting upside of 69.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ZIP as Buy (1) -

Citi flags potential implications for Zip Co from a proposed US cap on credit-card interest rates, noting possible benefits for BNPL volumes if banks restrict lending to riskier consumers.

On the flipside, the broker sees downside risk for In-store and Zip Anywhere products, given their consumer-funded structure and annual percentage rates above the proposed 10% threshold.

It’s considered early days, with the analysts noting traditional pay-in-four transactions remain outside the proposed regulatory scope.

Citi retains a Buy rating and target of $4.50.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $3.56 Difference: $0.94
If ZIP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.04, suggesting upside of 41.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources