Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates 29M as Neutral (3) -

29Metals' FY23 full-year revenue met consensus forecasts with negative earnings (EBITDA) outpacing by 50% (an impairment proving the swing factor). Macquarie remains cautious, forecasting strong cash burn over 2024.

Management's failure to provide guidance for Capricorn disappointed the broker, which now forecasts a slower ramp-up, spying rising risk should the company not receive permitting approvals.

Meanwhile, the company's net debt is burgeoning, observes the broker.

Neutral rating retained. Target price falls -58% to 29c to reflect an assumed equity raising in late 2024 and potential delays at Capricorn.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.02
If 29M meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Overweight (1) -

29Metals has reported a -$21.2m earnings loss for the full year, a result 17% better than Morgan Stanley had anticipated. Depreciation totalled $120m, and statuatory profit -$440m. 

Updated asset values see Morgan Stanley refresh its depreciation estimates for the company, driving downgrades to FY25 and FY26 earnings per share forecasts.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to 50 cents from 60 cents. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.23
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.43, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates A1N as Neutral (3) -

ARN Media's FY23 full-year earnigns (EBITDA) met consensus forecasts but sharply outpaced Macquarie's forecasts due to a beat on cost management.

The broker observes the company continued to outpace peers and expects this trend to continue, the company consolidating and growing its market share. Digital revenues continue to ramp up.

Kyle and Jackie O's contracts were renewed, causing management to increase operating expenditure guidance.

EPS forecasts are steady for FY24; fall -2% for FY25; and are steady in FY26.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises 4% to $1.04 from $1.

Target price is $1.04 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: $0.118
If A1N meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates A1N as Neutral (3) -

UBS observes weakness continued in the metropolitan radio advertising market in the second half of 2023, which was reflected in ARN Media's results. Yet the broker is positive regarding the digital growth story.

The  company intends to expand the Kyle and Jackie O show into Melbourne with additional guidance of $3-4m increase in investment costs across 2024.

In 2024, business appears on track to achieve $6.5m of the $10m target of its two-year cost reduction program. UBS reiterates a Neutral rating. Target is $0.87

Target price is $0.87 Current Price is $0.92 Difference: minus $0.052 (current price is over target).
If A1N meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 0.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Accumulate (2) -

While Aussie Broadband's 1H result slightly missed Ord Minnett's expectations, management upgraded FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $116-121m (including the Symbio acquisition), which compares to the broker's $119m forecast.

The 2H run-rate implies to the analyst a strong FY25 earnings base, before even contemplating a potential profit uplift from Symbio’s Singapore operation and segmental growth for Aussie Broadband.

Ord Minnett's target rises to $4.88 from $4.03 and the Accumulate rating is kept.

Target price is $4.88 Current Price is $4.53 Difference: $0.35
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIZ as Accumulate (2) -

Following an exceptional FY23 for Air New Zealand, Ord Minnett believes profitability is normalising. First half profit fell by -38% (in line with guidance) and the 2H is set to be much weaker, suggests the analyst.

Management reiterated FY24 profit guidance of between NZ$220-240m, which implies to the broker only a modest change to profits in the 2H.

A special dividend of NZ2cps was declared.

The 74c target and Accumulate rating are unchanged.

Target price is $0.74 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.165
If AIZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AMA as Buy (1) -

With AMA Group  having pre-released earnings post AASB 16 of $44.1m, the full result contained few surprises for Bell Potter. The company reported revenue of $469m and normalised earnings of $42.8m. 

Full year guidance for earnings post AASB 16 of $89-96m implies a bigger second half with earnings in the $46-53m range. The company also intends to report positive total cash flow for the full year, which implies a cash flow result of $35m or more in the coming half.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to 13 cents from 14 cents.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.072
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 124% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ANN as Hold (3) -

Following Ansell's 1H result, Morgans notes prospects for a 2H recovery appear reasonable, yet remains cautious whether the multi-year "market dislocation" has ended.

The analysts explain 2H gains are dependent on outside factors such as a supportive macroeconomic backdrop and limited customer de-stocking.

First half results were mixed, according to the broker, with in-line adjusted EPS but softer revenue than expected.

The operating profit margin (OPM) expanded in the Industrial division on manufacturing efficiencies and carryover pricing, explains Morgans. 

This OPM outcome was more than offset by contracting margins in Healthcare, notes the broker, partly due to ongoing inventory de-stocking.

Hold. The target rises to $22.53 from $21.33.

Target price is $22.53 Current Price is $24.65 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If ANN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.57, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AOF as Hold (3) -

Australian Unity Office Fund's funds from operations (FFO) of 4cpu in the 1H beat Ord Minnett's 3.3cpu forecast largely because of better-than-expected net property income (NPI).

More negatively, net tangible assets (NTA) fell -10% and management  is yet to secure any leases at 10 Valentine Ave, Parramatta, notes Ord Minnett.

The company provided no FY24 guidance.

The 2Q dividend of 1.5cpu beat the 1Q's distribution of 1.3cpu, and the broker forecasts a 1.5cpu quarterly payout for the rest of FY24.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target eases to $1.13 from $1.14.

Target price is $1.13 Current Price is $1.01 Difference: $0.12
If AOF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates APA as Equal-weight (3) -

APA Group's first half result was within Morgan Stanley's expectations, and the broker welcomed the return of a narrowed earnings guidance range from the company. APA Group is guiding to full year earnings between $1,870-1,910m. 

As part of scheduled reviews of gas pipeline regulations, APA Group's South West Queensland Pipeline operations are set to be reviewed. Morgan Stanley expects investors would prefer a non-scheme regulation, given potential for higher returns.

The Equal-weight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.18 from $9.28. Industry view: Cautious.

Target price is $9.18 Current Price is $8.18 Difference: $1
If APA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.05, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates APE as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Eagers Automotive has guided to $1bn of revenue growth, which looks conservative, Citi suggests, if you break down the drivers.

Unless the underlying business contracts in FY24, which given management’s outlook for each segment seems unlikely, the broker
views this as a very achievable hurdle and forecasts FY24 revenue growth of 12%.

Citi upgrades FY24-25 profit forecasts by 9-11%, which reflects the increased revenue growth to reflect conservative management guidance and profit margin contraction less than previous estimates.

Target rises to $13.90 from $13.25, upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If APE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates APE as Neutral (3) -

The resilience of gross margins for Eagers Automotive stood out for UBS in an otherwise "in line" result. What is unclear is whether elevated margins can continue in a market with increased supply and inventory.

The broker likes the business, noting it is well run and a consolidation play, yet with uncertainty surrounding margins retains a Neutral rating and $14.10 target.

Target price is $14.10 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $0.11
If APE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.09, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ASB as Buy (1) -

Following a disappointing full year result for FY23, Austal has outlined a return to profitability in the first half of FY24. Revenue declined year-on-year to $717.7m, but reported earnings were a significant improvement year-on-year at $32.1m; ahead of Bell Potter's forecast.

The result implies a 4.5% earnings margin, compared to the company's full year margin guidance of 3-4%. Despite a net cash position of $28.1m, no interim dividend was announced given a large capital expenditure program to increase shipbuilding capacity. 

The company continues to target revenue growth of 8-10% over the full year. The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.85 from $2.75.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.9
If ASB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASB as Buy (1) -

The first half result from Austal disappointed Citi because of a greater-than-expected impact from provisions. Yet the broker notes the order book is worth $12.7bn, over $10bn more than two years ago.

The issue now is funding, as the company will need to incur significant capital expenditure to build capacity to execute on this pipeline of work. Austal has signalled a preference for debt.

Citi retains a Buy rating, based on the market not appreciating the medium and longer term revenue upside that is underpinned by the amount of work. Target is raised by 13% to $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $1.15
If ASB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASB as Neutral (3) -

Austal's December-half result largely met Macquarie's forecasts and management reaffirmed FY24 guidance, earnings (EBIT) proving a slight beat.

Macquarie appreciates the company's $12.7bn order book, not including Strategy Shipbuilding agreement, which the broker believes represents a huge opportunity for the company, targeting the delivery of its first Australian Medium Landing Craft in 2026 and Heavy Landing Craft in 2028.

The broker expects this order book will be executed on historical margins with strong cost-escalation protections in place.

EPS forecasts rise 1% in FY24; 2% in FY25; and 2% in FY26.

Outperform rating and $2.10 target price retained.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.15
If ASB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 36.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASG as Buy (1) -

UBS found the first half results "solid" and normalised pre-tax profit slightly ahead of guidance. The broker assesses the market for Autosports Group is roughly in balance with variability in demand across some OEMs and demographics.

UBS upgrades estimates slightly for FY24 and  FY25 and does not forecast any future M&A in earnings. Buy rating retained on an undemanding multiple and the target is unchanged at $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.76
If ASG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 32.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AVH as Buy (1) -

Avita Medical had pre-released fourth quarter revenues of US$14.1m, and Bell Potter explains it is reasonably aggressive spending to drive top line growth that accounts for the reported -US$11.8m earnings loss for the period.  

Top line growth clearly remains a focus for Avita Medical, according to Bell Potter. The broker expects submission of data to support the PMA supplement for Recell Go is now an imminent catalyst for the company, and approval is expected in late May.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $7.00 from $6.85.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $2.22
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AVH as Add (1) -

Avita Medical's FY23 results were in line with guidance, notes Morgans, and management confirmed 2024 revenue growth of around 63%.

The company also announced profitability will be achieved by the 3Q of 2025, a goal the broker believes is achievable, with the key trigger being approval for Recell Go, due on May 31.

The analysts leave the $6.40 target unchanged and suggest post-result share price weakness is a great buying opportunity. Add.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $1.62
If AVH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AVH as Hold (3) -

Commercial revenue in the 4Q for Avita Medical was in line with Ord Minnett's forecast but operating expenses materially outpaced revenue for the period largely because of increased R&D costs.

A highlight for the broker was an around 5% expansion for the 4Q gross margin due to both higher overhead absorption and lower shipping costs.

Management reiterated 1Q 2024 commercial revenue guidance.

The Hold rating and $5.40 target are unchanged.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.62
If AVH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AX1 as Buy (1) -

Citi believes Accent offers more growth opportunities than the market appreciates, underpinned by the rollout of newer higher margin concepts, further upside on gross margin from better execution, TAF franchise buy-backs and improving sales trends.

The broker expects the company to maintain gross margins at 56.6%, up 150bps year on year, given continued expansion in the first 7 weeks of the second half, clean inventory and 12 more months of freight benefits.

The company noted it is making fewer mistakes in Nude Lucy and Stylerunner and sees the latter’s profitability as sustainable, which Citi believes is a positive.

Buy retained, target rises to $2.43 from $2.11.

Target price is $2.43 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.35
If AX1 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AX1 as Equal-weight (3) -

In a first look at Accent Group's first half, Morgan Stanley notes the result appears to be a small miss to market expectations at both the revenue and earnings lines.

Accent Group reported sales of $733m and earnings of $72.4m. The broker points out comps growth is tracking ahead in the second half.

The Equal-weight rating and target price of $1.90 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AX1 as Add (1) -

The resilience displayed by earnings in the 1H for Accent Group is a function of the portfolio effect and strong market position, explains Morgans.

Group owned sales (excluding franchisees) and earnings (EBIT) were misses of -4% and -2%, respectively, against the broker's forecast.

The gross margin was much better than the broker expected, which management largely attributed to cleaner inventory (leading to less markdown and promotional intensity), a favourable sales mix and improved buying power.

The fully franked interim dividend of 8.5cps exceeded expectations held by Morgans and consensus for 8cps and 6.5cps, respectively.

The Add rating and $2.30 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.22
If AX1 meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AX1 as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett assesses a resilient 1H sales performance by Accent Group against a challenging backdrop for the consumer. While the near-term is expected to be tough for the company, the long-term growth trajectory is intact.

Group sales fell by -1.8% on the previous corresponding period. However, the gross margin (positively) surprised the analyst, rising by 140bps due to discounting in the previous corresponding period and a mix shift to more lucrative private-label brands.

The Hold rating and $2.40 target are maintained. The broker's higher gross margin forecast for FY24 is more than offset by a higher cost-of-doing-business and a modestly lower sales forecast.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.32
If AX1 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AX1 as Sell (5) -

First half results from Accent Group were in line with UBS estimates. The sales outlook appears mixed to the broker, with the first seven weeks of the second half subdued albeit cycling a tough comparable period.

Store openings are the main positive. While tailwinds from gross margin expansion are enduring UBS notes FX volatility is an ongoing challenge. Sell rating retained. Target is $1.95, up from $1.85.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If AX1 meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.22, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were largely in line with Citi's expectations, as Bapcor had pre-reported earnings in January. The broker observes the company seems to be stepping back from its FY25 targets and given the new CEO starts on May 1 this is not a surprise.

Bapcor did reiterate it was on track to deliver $7-10m in second half net profit BTB benefits, largely because of lower gross margins from pilot procurement initiatives. It also seems to the broker that Thailand expansion remains a low priority. Neutral rating and $6.08 target.

Target price is $6.08 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.09
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Bapcor's pre-reported December-half result broadly met Macquarie's expectations, gross profit margins proving resilent in the face of payroll tax, says the broker.

Trade, Wholesale & NZ all put in decent performances while Retail was softer and finance costs rose. Earnings (EBITDA) margins rose across all divisions thanks to cost management, pricing and margins.

The broker appreciates the company's balance sheet, despite a softening over the half as net debt rose along with seasonal inventories and softer cash conversion.

EPS forecasts rise 0.5% in FY24; fall -0.8% in FY25; and fall -1.8% in FY26. Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 13% to $6.90 from $6.12.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.91
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley had already determined Bapcor was suffering from a retail share issue, given the company's pre-released first half earnings and the subsequently announced departure of both the Chair and CEO.

The company has now released more colour around its first half, detailing divisional growth of 2% for trade, 3% for wholesale and 3% for New Zealand. 

Second half sales are off to a more positive start, and the company anticipates a $7-10m transformation benefit in the period, as well as a $2m cost out benefit. 

The Underweight rating and target price of $5.20 are retained. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Add (1) -

Bapcor's 1H results were in line with the pre-released result, with the Trade divisions showing resilience, according to Morgans, while Retail weighed. Short-term targets for transformation benefits were maintained.

Revenue increased by 4% in the first six weeks of the 2H compared to the previous corresponding period, though the analysts note cautious commentary by management on the near-term (primarily revenue unpredictability in Retail).

Despite the uncertainty linked to an inevitable strategy review by the incoming CEO/CFO, the analysts believe it's realistic to forecast higher earnings in FY25.

The $6.60 target and Add rating are unchanged.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.61
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Bapcor's 1H underlying profit was in line with prior guidance, while earnings fell by -1.7% on the previous corresponding period mainly due to general cost inflation, explains Ord Minnett.

The performance of the Trade & Wholesale operations was solid, according to the analysts, while Retail was subdued. In a slight improvement, notes the broker, sales grew by 4% in the first six weeks of the 2H.

An interim dividend of 9.5cps was declared, down from the 10.5cps in the previous corresponding period.

The Hold rating and $6.10 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.11
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

There were no major surprises for UBS in the result from Bapcor, given it was largely pre-released. The company has signalled a potential change to its "Better Than Before" transformation program, noting the timing beyond FY24 is being reassessed.

In  the end UBS likes the trade/wholesale business but finds the level of "noise" around earnings and the uncertainty over strategy (a new CEO is in the offing) means it is too early to turn positive. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $6.00 from $6.10.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.99 Difference: $0.01
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Sell (5) -

While the first half result has caused Citi to upgrade its expectations for FY24-26 net profit by 2-6%, and raise the target to $14.25 from $13.15, the outlook appears to be more challenging.

Comparables will be tough and cost tailwinds will reduce. Hence, the broker asserts future growth will need to depend more heavily on volumes and there is little evidence this is occurring.

Brambles is expected to miss its value proposition targets. Citi retains a cautious outlook and a Sell rating.

Target price is $14.25 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: minus $1.02 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' December-half earnings (EBIT) outpaced consensus' forecasts by 9% and Macquarie's forecasts by 7% and cash flow proved a strong beat due to a mix of strong cost management and higher prices.

Management upgraded EBIT margin and cash-flow guidance.

Roughly 11% price rises and increased efficiencies (better utilisation of existing pallets) managed to more than offset the impact of an unwinding of downstream inventories, observes the broker.

While the broker questions the result's sustainability given volumes fell (and revenue guidance suggests volumes will continue to struggle in the June half), it expects the price bump should largely offset this.

On the balance sheet front, management advised it was seeking two years of record surplus cash before addressing capital management and the broker believes this should be the case by the end of FY25.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises 55c to $16.25.

Target price is $16.25 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: $0.98
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Equal-weight (3) -

Brambles' December-half earnings (EBITDA) outpaced consensus' forecasts by 8% and Morgan Stanley's forecasts by 18% thanks to a net profit after tax beat. Revenue met consensus but outpaced the broker by 4%.

Management upgraded guidance thanks to a rise in free cash flow guidance (not sales), suggesting growth may be slowing.

The broker explains a sharp jump in prices offsets a fall in volumes and a return of 8 million pallets sharply cut capital expenditure. This has created a new risk, observes Morgan Stanley: the cost of surplus pallet storage.

Equal Weight rating and $15.40 target price retained on valuation. Industry View: In line.

Target price is $15.40 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: $0.13
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Brambles 1H result exceeded Morgans expectations and management raised underlying earnings (EBIT) growth guidance to between 13-15% from 9-12% previously.

Free cash flow (before dividends) guidance was also upgraded to between US$700-800m from US$450-550m.

Volumes remain subdued, notes the broker, reflecting a softer macroeconomic environment and ongoing customer destocking in North America and Europe.

The group earnings margin rose by 160bps to 20.3%, highlights the analyst, driven by growth in CHEP Americas and CHEP EMEA, while the return on invested capital (ROIC) measure increased by 200bps to 21.8%.

The target rises to $15.65 from $14.95. Hold.

Target price is $15.65 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: $0.38
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Hold (3) -

First half underlying earnings (EBIT) for Brambles exceeded Ord Minnett's forecast due to stronger customer pricing, productivity improvements and cost deflation for lumber, energy and transport.

Management noted extraordinarily-high pallet returns from customer de-stocking, which lowered capex from purchasing new pallets.

Management upgraded FY24 guidance for underlying profit growth to 13-15% from 9-12%. The broker believes higher group margins will likely persist for the key regions of the US, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

An interim dividend of US15cps (35% franked) was declared, a 22% increase on the previous corresponding period.

The Hold rating and $14 target are maintained.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: minus $1.27 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

After a beat to expectations in the first half, UBS assesses Brambles can maintain or grow free cash flow, despite some of the benefits being temporary.

The $250m lift in cash flow guidance is explained by increased pallet returns, which results in a reduction in capital expenditure, deferred non-pooling expenditure and stronger operating cash flow.

This, in turn, should drive a rerating of the multiple and UBS retains a Buy rating. Target is raised to $17.10 from $16.55.

Target price is $17.10 Current Price is $15.27 Difference: $1.83
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.44, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CEH as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes abnormally bad weather wiped out robust visitation growth for Coast Entertainment in the 1H though notes fundamentals are solidly on the mend. Demand is clearly strong, notes the broker, when weather conditions are normal.

Theme park earnings (EBITDA) were $3m, down from $4m a year ago due to both the weather and pressure on discretionary spending from the economic backdrop.

The 60c target and Accumulate rating are unchanged.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.11
If CEH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates COG as Buy (1) -

An in line first half result from COG Financial Services, reports Bell Potter, including underlying earnings of $29.7m. Segmentally, novated leases lifted 192.9% year-on-year to $4.1m. Finance and booking was flat, while funds management declined -30.2%. 

Operating cash of $25.0m was a beat to Bell Potter's forecasts, largely driven by negative working capital. The broker points out performance in the novated leasing segment is expected to continue gaining momentum. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.84 from $1.83.

Target price is $1.84 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.375
If COG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COG as Buy (1) -

COG Financial has delivered first half profit up 14%, slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations. The result confirmed the newly bolstered Novated Leasing segment is growing rapidly, recording organic growth of 20% year on year, inclusive of aggressive operating cost investment.

The broker expects the novated leasing and salary packaging segment to contribute 25%-30% of group earnings this year, with COG’s legacy brands beCarWise  and Fleet Network performing well alongside the acquired Paywise brand.

The company retains excess cash and debt facilities to progress the M&A strategy of selectively acquiring brokers under the aggregation platform.

Target rises to $1.90 from $1.87, Buy retained.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.435
If COG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSR as Hold (3) -

CSR has received a conditional, non-binding bid from French building materials company Saint-Gobain. The offer outlines an acquisition of all ordinary shares on issue for $9.00 per share.

Bell Potter sees the offer price as full, representing a material 33% premium to the company's closing price as of February 20. The broker sees reasonable probability of the deal progressing, with reports alleging negotiations have been taking place for up to two years.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $9.00 from $5.70.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $0.62
If CSR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.03, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CTD as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage of Corporate Travel Management, a global provider of innovative and cost-effective travel solutions spanning corporate, events, leisure, loyalty, and wholesale travel, with a Buy (High Risk) rating and a $20 target.

A&NZ represented 24% of the company’s FY23 revenue, North America 46%, Asia 8% and Europe 22%.

Corporate Travel Management is a high-quality business, the broker suggests, well run by management with material skin in the game.
Travel sector conditions are returning to pre-covid levels and despite the popularity of virtual meetings, business travel remains an essential corporate activity in Shaw's opinion.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $3.64
If CTD meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.92, suggesting upside of 17.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CUV as Hold (3) -

Operating expenses in the 1H for Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals materially outpaced revenue, resulting in an underlying earnings (EBIT) decline of -13%, explains Ord Minnett.

Disappointing sales growth of 4% constant currency versus 19% in the previous corresponding period was partly due to timing issues.

Operating expenses grew due to a 10% rise in employees and a new commercial office facility, explains the analyst.

The broker feels demand for Scenesse is slowing more than anticipated though the valuation impact is largely offset by the time value of money, and the $18 target and Accumulate rating are maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $14.32 Difference: $3.68
If CUV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 34.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWP as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

While 1H profit for Cedar Woods Properties missed the consensus forecast, Morgans explains this was largely a result of timing, and management issued FY24 NPAT guidance in line with the consensus estimate.

Management noted enquiries and sales levels are at two-year highs, with Western Australia (where the company is headquartered) leading the way.

Due to the company's exposure to lower priced stock in higher growth markets, the broker sees further potential to drive earnings, and upgrades its rating to Add from Hold. It's felt shares could trade at a premium if the housing cycle gains steam through FY25/26.

The target rises to $5.60 from $4.50.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.85
If CWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Calix has surpassed Bell Potter's expectations with its first half results, reporting revenue and other income of $16.3m, representing a 12% beat to the broker and 28% year-on-year growth.

The broker explains the result was driven by stronger sales from the Magnesia segment, as well as increased engineering services. Magnesia's gross margins improved materially to 38%, from 29% in the same half a year prior. 

Operating costs were higher, but reflective of increased research and developement spend to expand collaborations for the Leilac project. 

The Buy rating and target price of $5.10 are retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $3.105
If CXL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 156% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CXL as Buy (1) -

Calix' first half financial results highlighted a growing pipeline of projects, Shaw and Partners reports. The project pipeline for Leilac alone has grown to 82, up from 54 in August 2022 and 34 in August 2021. Calix posted a 41% year on year increase in revenue.

The company has suffered wild share price volatility, due in part to the fall in the EU carbon permits price, Shaw notes, and project delays. To that end the broker has increased its risk assumptions and weighted average cost of capital to 10.1% from 8.8%.

This results in a target cut to $4.50 from $6.00, but Shaw's view that Calix can become a $1bn revenue generating business within ten years has not changed. Buy retained.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $2.505
If CXL meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CYG as Buy (1) -

Coventry Group had pre-reported first half sales of $185.3m and a pre-AASB 16 earnings result of $9.8m, representing 5% and 18% year-on-year growth respectively.

With these metrics pre-reported, Bell Potter found its attention drawn to the segment earnings split, as well as the turnaround from Konnect Australia. The broker had anticipated a more pronounced bias to the trade distribution segment, with earnings of $8.5m flat year-on-year.  

Konnect Australia, however, reported 9% sales growth and 89% earnings imporvement, and Bell Potter feels this tracks with its expectations for the brand and its turnaround thesis.

The Buy rating and target price of $1.80 are retained.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.29
If CYG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EXP as Add (1) -

Experience Co's 1H result was in line with Morgans forecasts. Trading and earnings for January were in line with the previous corresponding period and trading was positive in February despite inclement weather, note the analysts.

Management is encouraged by lead indicators from the Chinese New Year which indicate the inbound tourism market from China continues to improve.

The broker believes the company may be reaching an inflexion point for its recovery as aviation capacity into Australia is set to reach around 100% of pre-covid levels in the 2H.

The Add rating and 30c target are maintained.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.13
If EXP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Compared to the consensus forecast, 1H earnings (EBITDA) for Fortescue were a 5% beat, while underlying profit was in line, according to Morgans, which notes tailwinds are still roaring. Guidance for FY24 production and costs was maintained.

Supported by strong cash flow, note the analysts, the company maintained a 65% dividend payout ratio and announced an interim dividend of 108cps versus the 104cps predicted by consensus.

The target eases to $24.70 from $25.40. Hold. Morgans notes some long-term risks if iron ore markets (demand, prices and discounts)
were to revert back toward long-term averages.

Target price is $24.70 Current Price is $28.21 Difference: minus $3.51 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.27, suggesting downside of -23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GNE as Hold (3) -

Genesis Energy  posted a weak first half, Ord Minnett notes, as expected, mainly because of lower hydroelectric output and an outage at Huntley power station. Higher operating costs, thanks to IT spend and general inflation, also hurt.

With about 60% of power generated from gas and coal, Genesis must undergo significant change, Ord Minnett suggests, over the next decade to align with the government's decarbonisation plans.

Medium term, there are plans for a battery at Huntley and a solar farm JV. Longer term, independently built solar and wind farms.

Hold and $2.50 target retained.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.1
If GNE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNP as Buy (1) -

GenusPlus Group posted first half results that beat Bell Potter's estimates. EBITDA growth is now expected to be 10-15% in FY24, which the broker points out implies a weaker second half. As activity ramps up Bell Potter suspects the upgraded guidance is conservative.

The business is leveraged to increasing renewable energy, battery energy storage and transmission infrastructure on the east coast and well-positioned to scale its communications and industrial services divisions. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $1.70 from $1.50.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.29
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources delivered net profit that was slightly ahead of Bell Potter's estimates for 2023 and an 82% increase on 2022. Guidance is for 150,000-167,500 ounces of gold at AISC of $1900-2050/oz in 2024.

A catch up on waste mining will be necessary in 2024, as the second half was affected by mining problems that caused insufficient waste to be mined in order to access higher grade ore. Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.85 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.425
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as Outperform (1) -

Gold Road Resources 2023 top-line result broadly met Macquarie's forecasts but underlying net profit after tax missed by -3% due to a miss on corporate exploration costs.

Net cash fell due to a rise in closing leases. The company closed the year with $144m in cash and zero bank debt.

The company's 1c fully franked dividend proved the highlight, sharply outpacing the broker's forecast.

EPS forecasts fall -1% to -3% over the long term.

Outperform rating retained. Target price is steady at $1.60 a share.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.175
If GOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources' 2023 full-year result appears to have missed Ord Minnett's forecasts, the broker citing confusion around all-in-sustaining-cost guidance, albeit nothing untoward.

ASIC guidance appears to differ from JV partner Goldfields' on Gruyere. The broker sheets this back to higher corporate overheads and Goldfield's accounting treatment of stockpiles, and considers it to be a negative.

Earnings were in line (up 17%) and management retains 2024 guidance, and the dividend and depreciation and amortisation proved small misses.

Buy rating retained on valuation. Target price falls -2% to $1.70 from $1.80.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.275
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.79, suggesting upside of 19.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GSS as Speculative Buy (1) -

Genetic Signatures delivered a -65% decline in revenue in the first half, which had been flagged in the second quarter update. This was driven by declining covid test sales and temporary decline in non-covid sales.

Bell Potter notes no material updates were provided regarding regulatory interactions and domestic revenue will continue to be affected until the Therapeutic Goods Administration approves the company's restored respiratory test. Speculative Buy rating and $0.75 target maintained.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.24
If GSS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HMY as Accumulate (2) -

Harmoney's December-half result and guidance largely met Ord Minnett's forecasts, lower operating costs per unit of income proving the highlight.

The company's cost-to-income ratio fell to 24% from 29% in the previous December half.

The broker observes the company holds roughly $200m in warehouse funding capacity to be deployed to its loan portfolio and estimates its loan book will increase to $900m by FY26 from an estimated $756m at December 31.

Ord Minnett believes the company has managed the credit fallout well to date and is confident it can continue to do so.

Accumulate rating retained. Target price inches up to 86c from 85c.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.53 Difference: $0.335
If HMY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates HUM as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the -27% decline in first half normalised profit from Humm Group, and the drop in the share price, are a sign market optimism regarding an earnings recovery was premature.

The broker suspects it will take time before earnings recover to around $65m, the average for the preceding couple of years. Moderating funding costs as interest rates retreat from current highs are expected to drive the recovery in net profit.

Challenges still persist, stemming from the commoditised nature of the company's products and necessitating frequent investment in growth amid fee pressures. Ordd Minnett retains a Hold rating and $0.50 target.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If HUM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IFL as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett observes Insignia Financial is delivering on cost savings which provides more confidence in long-term margins. First half underlying net profit was better than the modest decline the broker had anticipated.

While the shares rose over 12% on the back of the result Ord Minnett still envisages value, noting earnings synergies from prior acquisitions remain on track.

The migration of funds from legacy products is in train, with more product enhancements and client acquisition underway. Accumulate rating and $3.60 target maintained.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $1.05
If IFL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.61, suggesting upside of 2.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IRI as Buy (1) -

Integrated Research delivered first half revenue that was in line with forecasts while EBITDA was ahead. No guidance was provided although this is in keeping with company policy.

Bell Potter downgrades forecasts for revenue in FY24 and FY25 by -1% and -5%, respectively. EBITDA and net profit forecasts for FY24 are upgraded because of the better-than-anticipated first half result.

As the cash bank is growing, the broker envisages potential for capital management as a catalyst for the stock and maintains a Buy rating with a $0.66 target.

Target price is $0.66 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.33
If IRI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JIN as Outperform (1) -

Jumbo Interactive's December-half result largely met forecasts, the broker observing the company is on track to report record earnings in FY24.

Lottery Retailing posted a rise in revenue margins thanks to price increases and charitables growth.

The broker expects Australian lottery volumes to rise strongly (25%) in the June half, taking total FY24 growth to 10%. Add to that price increases and the forecasts are rosy, the broker predicting a 9% three-year EBITDA compound annual growth rate out to FY25.

Digital penetration is expected to rise 38% year on year to 40%.

Neutral rating retained on valuation grounds, although accretive M&A could prove a wildcard, says the broker. Target price rises 30c to $17.15 from $16.85.

Target price is $17.15 Current Price is $17.49 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates JIN as Overweight (1) -

Jumbo Interactive's December-half result appears to have pleased Morgan Stanley, the broker observing a strong early start to June-half trade. Management reiterated guidance but warned of higher marketing costs to come.

Overall, Morgan Stanley is upbeat, appreciating the company's exposure to an online duopoly, low capital intensity, and structural benefits.

Overweight rating retained. Target price is $20.80. This compares with $19.20 at January 31. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $20.80 Current Price is $17.49 Difference: $3.31
If JIN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JIN as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a "solid" 1H result for Jumbo Interactive, highlighting strong cash generation and top line growth from a fast growing active customers base.

Total transaction value (TTV) increased by 16%, aided by a particularly strong jackpot sequence in December, explains the analyst. The interim dividend grew by 17% to 27cps.

The target for Jumbo Interactive rises to $18.70 from $16.00 as the broker increases its large jackpot assumptions to 48 from 44 in FY24, while EPS estimates rise due to improved operating efficiency.  Add.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $17.49 Difference: $1.21
If JIN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates JIN as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett observes after a soft start to FY24, the Australian lottery volume improved dramatically. The broker upgrades the revenue outlook for Jumbo Interactive by 4%.

First half results were largely in line with expectations and price increases implemented in May 2023 improved revenue margins as a share of ticket volume.

At current prices, the shares screen overvalued to the broker, which suspects the market may be underestimating the competitive challenges. Lighten rating retained. Target is $13.10.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $17.49 Difference: minus $4.39 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates KGN as Sell (5) -

At first glance Citi found the incremental information from Kogan.com's first half result positive. There was more focus on growing and maintaining brand presence than the broker expected and an interim dividend of 7.5 cents has been declared.

The main negative is that the Kogan First membership fee will increase to $129.99 in April and Citi observes this is not in line with fees charged by competitors in similar programs and could result in subscriber attrition/cancellation.

There were no details around Kogan First renewal rates yet the broker considers this an indicator of the overall health of the business. Key questions remain and Citi retains a Sell rating with a $4.30 target.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: minus $1.82 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates KGN as Neutral (3) -

Today's 1H result for Kogan.com was pre-reported. In a first assessment, UBS suggests the January trading update was strong with earnings (EBITDA) of $4.9m compared to the monthly run-rate of around $4.5m in the 2Q.

Adjusted profit of $10.2m beat forecasts by the broker and consensus for $5.1m and $7.7m, respectively. Marketing metrics appeared strong, with spend per customer rising by 33% year-on-year versus a 72% rise for gross profit  per customer.

While no sales trading update was provided, note the analysts, management stated there was an improved 2H gross margin (GM) and operating leverage, and highlighted the ongoing growth contribution from platform-based sales.

An interim dividend of 7cps was declared which compares to the broker's forecast for no payout.

Neutral rating. Target $4.90.

Target price is $4.90 Current Price is $6.12 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting downside of -12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LFS as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Latitude Group reported cash earnings in line with the guidance range, albeit at the bottom end, Citi notes.

The net interest margin stabilised at 9.8%. Despite further funding cost headwinds in FY24, management appears confident that intrain
repricing can offset to deliver NIM expansion.

Citi lowers FY24-25 earnings forecasts by -20% and -12%, largely on a more muted NIM recovery. The broker makes more minor changes to outer year assumptions, and forecasts a recovery back to FY22 profitability by FY26.

Target rises to $1.15 from 95c, upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.17 Difference: minus $0.015 (current price is over target).
If LFS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.05, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LOV as Buy (1) -

First half results beat Bell Potter's estimates across key areas, including gross margins and the interim dividend, but missed out at the EBIT line because of lower revenue.

The broker believes the premium that Lovisa Holdings has over its peer group is justified, considering the margin outlook, upside from store opportunities and the ability to execute strongly in the fashion jewellery market. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $30.70 from $26.50.

Target price is $30.70 Current Price is $29.17 Difference: $1.53
If LOV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LOV as Neutral (3) -

Lovisa Holdings' December-half result proved mixed; sales sharply outpacing consensus and Macquarie's forecasts and earnings (EBIT) in line, as the cost of doing business rose while sales and higher borrowing costs kicked in.

Gross margins rose 40 basis point to 80.7% and inventory growth slowed. EPS forecasts rise 3.4% in FY24; fall -0.3% in FY25 and rise 2.3% in FY26.

While Macquarie expects growth to kick up in the June half as competition eases from April, it remains cautious, retaining a Neutral rating while raising its target price 45% to $26.90.

Target price is $26.90 Current Price is $29.17 Difference: minus $2.27 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LOV as Lighten (4) -

Ord Minnett found the Lovisa Holdings first half results robust considering the challenging macro economic environment. The broker raises long-term profit margins to 80% on the back of the solid margin outcome in the first half.

An increase in gross profit margin forecasts and the time value of money means the target is raised by 7% to $23.50.

At current prices, Ord Minnett considers the shares overvalued and believes the market is over estimating the pace of store openings and the ultimate global footprint.

The US expansion is considered the key driver of long-term earnings growth estimates. Lighten retained.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $29.17 Difference: minus $5.67 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.43, suggesting downside of -8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LTM as Buy (1) -

Arcadium Lithium delivered 2023 adjusted EBITDA of US$503m; ahead of Bell Potter's forecasts. This reflects the Livent Corp business prior to the merger with Allkem in January.

Bell Potter believes the business provides the largest, most diversified exposure to lithium in terms of  upstream production, asset locations as well as downstream processing and markets.

Production could double over the next three years, the broker asserts. Buy rating unchanged. Target is reduced to $10.40 from $12.10.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $7.01 Difference: $3.39
If LTM meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.56, suggesting upside of 59.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial's 2023 result missed estimates, down -24% on the prior year in terms of underlying EBITDA. Yet Ord Minnett finds the flow outlook robust, noting the company has retained its FY26 targets.

MA Money is on track for breaking even in the second half while challenging conditions in corporate advisory are expected to persist.

At the headline, Ord Minnett decreases estimates for EPS by -16-19% over the next two years, expecting conditions will gradually become more favourable. Target  is reduced to $7.00 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $2.58
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 40.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA Financial missed UBS estimates in the second half of 2023, which was a surprise given the momentum in fund inflows over the year. The broker acknowledges underestimating the costs being reinvested back into the business and lower non-recurring revenue.

UBS reduces asset management revenue fee margins for 2024 and now forecasts only modest growth in earnings. Over the long-term, the positive view is unchanged and a Buy rating is retained. Target is reduced to $5.60 from $6.10.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.42 Difference: $1.18
If MAF meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.22, suggesting upside of 40.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MCE as Speculative Buy (1) -

Matrix Composites & Engineering delivered first half revenue of $26.7m that was lower than Bell Potter's forecasts, largely because of the timing of product delivery. The company has reiterated revenue expectations for FY24 of $85m.

The broker explains  the company is exposed to a protracted capital expenditure "up cycle" that is occurring across the global offshore energy sector.

The medium-term outlook is therefore supported by strengthening of the FEED pipeline and this implies good visibility and confidence. Speculative Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $0.42 from $0.34.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.1
If MCE meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Neutral (3) -

In an initial response to Michael Hill's first half, Citi has described a disappointing result from the retailer. Net profits of $15.4m were a -40% miss to market expectations, leaving the broker surprised by the magnitude of the miss. 

Citi explains the result appears to be driven by higher depreciation and amortisation, net interest and other expenses that were not included in comparable earnings released by the company earlier in January.

The company does appear to be outperforming in Australia in the second half. The Neutral rating and target price of 86 cents are retained.

Target price is $0.86 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.085
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MIN as Hold (3) -

Mineral Resources posted a -42% decline in the first half net profit, a "disappointing miss" to Ord Minnett's forecasts. Extreme volatility in iron ore and lithium prices and the uncertainty regarding the timing of revenue recognition mean there are wild swings in profitability.

The company has maintained FY24 guidance and the broker retains forecasts at the mid point for all categories, although concedes the lithium price will dictate  earnings in the near term. Hold maintained. Target is $67.

Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $62.32 Difference: $4.68
If MIN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $67.79, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MPL as Equal-weight (3) -

Medibank Private's December-half result appears to have missed consensus' forecasts but outpaced Morgan Stanley's forecasts as structurally lower claims offsett weaker policyholder growth.

Management lowered FY24 residential policyholder growth guidance and the broker is now switching its focus to the publication of the December-quarter APRA Private Health Insurance Statistics on Wednesday.

Surgical claims recovered to pre-covid levels. EPS forecasts rise 2% in FY24; 5% in FY25; and 4% in FY26.

Equal-Weight rating retained. Target price rises to $3.84 from $3.66. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $3.84 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.21
If MPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MPL as Hold (3) -

Medibank Private's 1H underlying profit missed the consensus forecast by -1% and Morgans makes only minor forecast changes. In a favourable Health Insurance (HI) claims environment the broker was disappointed by aspects of FY24 guidance.

HI resident policyholder growth expectations were lowered and HI operating expense guidance was raised well above the consensus estimate, explains the analyst. More positively, HI residential claims per policy unit growth expectations were reduced.

The target falls to $3.73 from $3.76. Hold.

Target price is $3.73 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: $0.1
If MPL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.80, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MVF as Outperform (1) -

Monash IVF's December-half result appears to have missed Macquarie's forecast, guidance disappointing by -2%, but the broker appears generally pleased with the company's performance, save for a -3.2% drag from International.

Macquarie appreciates the company's solid pipeline; growth in Carrier screening; and market share gains, the company adding nine fertility specialists.

The broker spies strong structural support for the IVF industry and forecast continued market share gains, specialist growth; and acquisitions. New patient registrations continued to rise.

EPS forecasts fall -1.6% in FY24; rise 1.3% in FY25; and rise 2% in FY26. Outperform rating and $1.55 target price retained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.125
If MVF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates MVF as Overweight (1) -

Monash IVF's December-half top-line result outpaced consensus' and Morgan Stanley's forecasts by 5%, the company's market share growth outpacing peers as price increases kicked in across all domestic markets.

But underlying earnings proved a miss, margins sharply disappointing as staff and supplier costs rose along with a blow-out in fixed costs for new clinic infrastructure. The International business appears to have missed forecasts.

Management's maiden guidance met consensus forecasts but fell shy of Morgan Stanley's estimates.

The broker appreciates the company's balance sheet.

EPS forecasts fall -1% in FY24; rise 5% in FY25; and rise 4% in FY26. 

Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $1.65 from $1.45 to reflect the company's market-share gains on outer years. Industry view: In line.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.225
If MVF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MVF as Add (1) -

Morgans assesses a "strong" 1H result for Monash IVF with underlying profit rising by 18.7% to $15m. This level meets the top end of management's guidance range for $14.5-15m.

The broker upgrades its underlying profit forecast for FY24 to align with new management guidance for a range of between $29-30m.

The analysts point out the balance sheet remains strong. An interim dividend of 2.5cps was declared.

Morgans target increases to $1.55 from $1.50 and the Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.125
If MVF meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MVF as Accumulate (2) -

The first half result from Monash IVF was supported by acquisitions and underlying EBITDA was slightly ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts.

The broker observes investments into the business have allowed the company to materially expand its footprint and it is now well-positioned to capitalise on structural tailwinds and expand ROIC. Accumulate rating retained. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.40.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: $0.075
If MVF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.56, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MXI as Buy (1) -

First  half earnings were up 22% and MaxiPARTS increased sales revenue by 12.7%. Guidance has been maintained for "low double-digit" revenue growth in the underlying business with a target of "greater than 10%" for the second half EBITDA margin.

Ord Minnnett assesses there are industry tailwinds and the potential for the business to be a key operator in further industry consolidation. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $3.20 from $3.40.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.40 Difference: $0.8
If MXI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MYS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes Mystate is feeling the pressure of intensive price competition for customer deposits and loans. The bank is highly dependent on the mortgage broker channel and in the current market price is taking precedence over the speed of approvals.

First half net profit fell -5% and guidance for FY24 is in line with forecasts. Core to the broker's view is net interest margins improving to 1.65% by FY26. Buy rating retained. Target is $4.80.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $1.39
If MYS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates OCL as Add (1) -

Margin improvements in the 1H for Objective Corp overshadowed softness for annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, suggests Morgans. Underlying NPAT of $16.5m was an 8% beat versus the broker's forecast. 

Management reiterated its 15% Net ARR growth target for FY24, implying to the analyst a record 2H of ARR growth will be needed, equating to an uplift of circa $10.8m.

The target falls to $14.00 from $14.35. Add.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $2.01
If OCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.00, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PAC as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. The mix of business for Pacific Current Group was more favourable, amid higher management fees and lower performance fees.

Guidance commentary for the second half and FY25 appears a little weaker than the broker had anticipated, but generally the growth momentum continues.

Ord Minnett downgrades underlying estimates for EPS by -2-12% for the next three years. Buy rating reiterated. Target is reduced to $12.00 from $12.20.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $9.92 Difference: $2.08
If PAC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PDN as Buy (1) -

A first half loss from Paladin Energy of -US$15.5m was a little better than Citi expected. This stemmed from a reversal of an impairment charge worth US$92.2m as a result of changed economic circumstances along with improvement in uranium prices.

Citi makes small adjustments to price realisation and interest expense and retains a $1.45 target along with a Buy rating.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.325
If PDN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy's December-half result (underlying loss) broadly met Macquarie's forecasts but the company managed to log a massive beat on net profit after tax, following the reversal of an impairment which spun the result US$76.8m into the black.

The company closed December 31 with cash of US$65.1m and is now fully funded to restart Langer Heinrich, observes the broker, thanks to securing of another US$150m in working capital.

With Langer Heinrich due to reboot production in the September quarter, funding secured and the impairment unwound, the broker says it's full steam ahead.

FY24 earnings forecasts rise 4%. Outperform rating and $1.50 target price retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.375
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.51, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PLL as Outperform (1) -

Piedmont Lithium's 2023 full-year result sharply missed Macquarie's earnings (EBITDA) forecasts  (by -55%); and operating cash flow forecasts (by -71%).

Revenue proved a -34% miss (posting negative revenue of -US$7.3m) due to a provisional pricing adjustment in the previous quarter. The one upside was a beat on capital expenditure, observes the broker.

The company posted an underlying loss of -US$21.8m. 

Macquarie observes the company's cash position is in the spotlight and now assumes delays in big longer term projects, the resulting forecast cut in capital expenditure providing a fillip for EPS forecasts (as does a forecast jump in sales from North American Lithium in 2024).

EPS forecasts rise 33% to 216% between 2023 and 2026; and fall -12% to -29% for 2028 onward.

Outperform rating retained. Target price falls to 40c from 49c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.2
If PLL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PME as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reviews Pro Medicus after the company's recent share price retreat, observing the company's share-price multiples are now trading near the company's five-year averages.

While appearing expensive relative to peers on some metrics, the broker expects Pro Medicus's competitive advantages justify this; and still looks attractive on earnings (EBIT) CAGR, margins, Rule of 40, and return on investment capital metrics.

Outperform rating and $120 target price retained.

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $98.22 Difference: $21.78
If PME meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PRU as Accumulate (2) -

The first half results from Perseus Mining were better than Ord Minnett expected. EBITDA grew 18% while cash costs rose less than forecast. 2024 guidance is incorporated and the broker modestly lowers sales forecast to around 480,000 ounces.

The shares are trading at around -16% discount to the broker's fair value estimate, of $2.

Ord Minnett suspect this might be on the back of concerns about rising interest rates, which would deliver a headwind to gold prices, as inflation is generally higher than central bank targets. Accumulate maintained.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.32
If PRU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.17, suggesting upside of 26.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PWR as Neutral (3) -

Citi assesses the dealership environment will become more challenging over the next 12-18 months for Peter Warren Automotive, although topline growth is expected over FY24 and FY25.

The broker expects gross margins will contract to 17.3% in FY24 and 16.7% in FY25, as discounting on new car sales intensifies amid the continued dilution from the Toyota/VW acquisition, and fleet sales become an increasing proportion of new car volumes.

As vendor expectations reduce, the broker assesses the company could become more aggressive in the next 12-24 months. Target edges down to $2.45 from $2.50 and a Neutral rating is maintained.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $2.44 Difference: $0.01
If PWR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 27.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PXA as Outperform (1) -

Pexa Group's December-half result outpaced downgraded guidance thanks to a rebound in transfer volumes, although a normalisation in costs took its toll.

Digital growth was trending to break-even by FY24, a plus says the broker given the company's recent revenue downgrade.

Macquarie says the focus is now on the UK where the company expecting to go live with two of the UK's top-10 banks by mid-year. Management confirming discussions were still under way but the broker says delivery is essential to restore confidence in the UK pitch.

EPS forecasts rise 5.8% in FY24; 0.5% in FY26; and 3.5% in FY27; and 4% thereafter.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $15.45 from $14.65.

Target price is $15.45 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: $3.29
If PXA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.13, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PXA as Hold (3) -

Pexa Group's 1H results were largely pre-announced, notes Morgans, and FY24 guidance was reaffirmed. Group profit (NPATA) of $15m slightly missed the consensus $17m forecast.

The broker notes a "solid enough" PXA Exchange result, while management believes PXA Digital is on track for break-even by June 2024 on further scale benefits and recent new business wins.

The target rises to $12.19 from $11.66. Morgans points to an upcoming catalyst (mid this year) with the launch of the 24-48 hour UK refinance product. The Hold rating is maintained.

Target price is $12.19 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: $0.03
If PXA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.13, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PXA as Buy (1) -

First half results from Pexa Group were largely in line with the December trading update and Domestic Exchange remains the engine of growth.

The core business was the highlight for UBS with revenue growth of 11%. Repricing was largely linked to the CPI and a favourable shift in mix.

Progress in the UK appears to have been slow as Optima volumes and market share remain well below pre-acquisition levels. UBS suspects it will be a slow grind ahead. Buy rating retained. Target is $14.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.16 Difference: $1.84
If PXA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.13, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QAN as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett assesses the profitability of Qantas Airways is "normalising". Pent-up demand has largely been exhausted and capacity constraints have eased while competition is intensifying.

The broker lowers FY24 underlying profit forecasts by -5%, to $2bn. While the company has declared a further $500m on-market buyback, given the shares are trading only slightly ahead of the target of $6.10, Ord Minnett considers this immaterial to estimates. Hold maintained.

Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.30 Difference: $0.8
If QAN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.69, suggesting upside of 28.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates QUB as Neutral (3) -

UBS found first half growth from Qube Holdings "solid" and ahead of forecasts for low single-digit declines. The strength in Patrick was delivered by both DP World's labour disruptions and the full benefit from new contracts. Both operating divisions also benefitted from acquisition contributions.

UBS believes logistics margins are unsustainably high and should drift back towards historical levels over the coming years. Earnings estimates are lifted modestly but this has not changed the investment view after the recent strength in the share price. Neutral maintained. Target is raised to $3.53 from $3.33.

Target price is $3.53 Current Price is $3.26 Difference: $0.27
If QUB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.56, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RFF as Buy (1) -

Rural Funds posted first half earnings below Bell Potter's forecast that reflect the timing of farm-related revenue. FY24 earnings guidance is unchanged at 11.2c per unit with a distribution of 11.73c.

Bell Potter updates forecasts to allow for changes to capital expenditure and farming contributions.

The broker considers the -30% discount to market net asset valuation is excessive when taking into account the material improvement in counterparty profitability indicators. Buy rating and $2.40 target maintained.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: $0.28
If RFF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Forecast for FY25:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources