Australian Broker Call
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August 08, 2018
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
Last Updated: 12:01 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
A2M - | A2 MILK | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
ECX - | ECLIPX GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform | Credit Suisse |
Overnight Price: $9.45
Citi rates A2M as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
Citi has cut earnings forecasts for a2 ahead of its earnings result to reflect the increasing likelihood excess inventory is building domestically. Given the FY18 result has largely been pre-released, this is more of a call on FY19, the broker notes.
Given the risk the broker sees to the first half FY19 result the broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral, despite a2's strong brand. Target falls to $9.50 from $10.90.
Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.45 Difference: $0.05
If A2M meets the Citi target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.25, suggesting upside of 19.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.53 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of 40.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.5. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.04
Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Hold (3) -
Incorporating three acquisitions in its life sciences division, Ord Minnett has lifted EPS forecasts by 0.4% in the years ahead. This pushes up the price target to $8.19 from $8.17. Hold rating retained with the extra remark the recommendation was upgraded recently following company management's H1 FY19 guidance.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $8.19 Current Price is $9.04 Difference: minus $0.85 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $8.15, suggesting downside of -9.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.6, implying annual growth of 244.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 41.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.0, implying annual growth of 18.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.99
Citi rates AMC as Neutral (3) -
Substantial synergies lie at the core of the value Amcor sees in its Bemis acquisition, the broker notes. Management is confident in cost reduction targets and sees the potential for further revenue opportunities.
The broker sees a risk in addressing Bemis' revenue challenges. The price paid breaches Amcor's own strict valuation policy, which is likely why the stock was sold off, the broker suggests. But given it is an all-scrip takeover, return on investment measures depend on share price moves.
Neutral and $14.85 target retained.
Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $0.86
If AMC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.08 cents and EPS of 79.78 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.97 cents and EPS of 84.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AMC as Neutral (3) -
The acquisition of Bemis will be accretive, but in the long run, Credit Suisse observes. The broker also notes that plastic resin commodity costs are at a peak and should decline through 2019. This could provide a tailwind as the company has increased exposure to resin.
Synergies anticipated from the acquisition may increase as confidence builds in the integration, the broker suggests. Neutral rating and target is raised to $15.20 from $14.20.
Target price is $15.20 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $1.21
If AMC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 60.65 cents and EPS of 81.38 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.27 cents and EPS of 84.08 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates AMC as Buy (1) -
Deutsche Bank suggests the market is too worried about the multiple implied for the acquisition of Bemis Corp in the US. The broker retains its $17 price target alongside a Buy rating.
The analysts think investors will be positively surprised by the synergies that will be achieved post integration, plus the analysts see positive contribution to Amcor's longer term growth profile.
Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $3.01
If AMC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMC as Outperform (1) -
Amcor will make an all-scrip acquisition of Bemis. Macquarie notes the rationale behind the deal is synergy realisation, creating a clear global market leader in flexibles.
Procurement features prominently and the broker considers revenue synergies, while not included in the proposed deal, are real given the complementary nature of the acquisition. The broker maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $16.10 from $15.72.
Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $2.11
If AMC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 57.98 cents and EPS of 80.82 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 58.63 cents and EPS of 87.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates AMC as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley appreciates that Bemis is a rare opportunity that allows Amcor to broaden its markets but is concerned that the company is stepping away from its prior returns target of 15-20% over 3-5 years that has been a benchmark for more than a decade.
The broker suggests this could be a key concern among the current investor base. Overweight. Target is $15.80. Cautious industry view.
Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: $1.81
If AMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 59.56 cents and EPS of 81.56 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.73 cents and EPS of 86.74 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates AMC as Hold (3) -
Amcor will acquire Bemis in an all-scrip offer, valuing the target at US$6.8bn including net debt. Bemis is the largest flexibles packaging company in North America and will significantly increase the company's footprint.
Morgans believes the deal makes sense strategically but falls short on financial metrics including Amcor's previously strict return targets. Morgans maintains a Hold rating and $13.54 target.
Target price is $13.54 Current Price is $13.99 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.47, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 58.37 cents and EPS of 81.72 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.27 cents and EPS of 88.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.8, implying annual growth of 6.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $10.63
Citi rates BAL as Buy (1) -
The broker has trimmed its forecasts for Bellamy's ahead of its earnings result due to increased a2 milk supply and a delay in Chinese regulatory approval. FY18 guidance is not expected to be beaten. This leads to a target price drop to $19.70 from $22.00.
Post downgrade, valuation still remains compelling, the broker believes. Buy retained.
Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $10.63 Difference: $9.07
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 37.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 56.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $33.97
Morgans rates BHP as Add (1) -
Morgans factors in a share buyback utilising a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the US onshore oil & gas business. The remainder, the broker assumes, is distributed via a special dividend.
Morgans expects BHP to be less affected by rising costs relative to peer Rio Tinto ((RIO)). This is because of a positive correlation to rising energy prices, given its petroleum division, and a lack of exposure to aluminium. Add rating is maintained. Target rises to $37.09 from $35.79.
Target price is $37.09 Current Price is $33.97 Difference: $3.12
If BHP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.92, suggesting upside of 5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 151.77 cents and EPS of 232.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 207.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 190.69 cents and EPS of 255.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 253.0, implying annual growth of 22.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $74.44
Macquarie rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, Macquarie analysts suggest CBA's FY18 report revealed better than expected margin performance plus lower than expected impairment charge. Both of these trends are seen as favourable for the sector overall and should, in the analysts' view, partly alleviate concerns around the sector’s underlying earnings growth outlook in FY18.
Macquarie remains of the view that CBA's typical sector premium can no longer be justified. The analysts suggest the key question for CBA in the near-term is whether underlying revenue momentum can be sustained while bank management is occupied with various business-related issues while also addressing the compliance-related issues.
Neutral. Target $75.50.
Target price is $75.50 Current Price is $74.44 Difference: $1.06
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $73.63, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 432.50 cents and EPS of 550.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 436.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
On initial assessment, UBS summarises released FY18 results as Cash net profits in-line, 2H18 revenue under pressure, Net Interest Margin (NIM) guided down, and CET1 is weak.
All in all, the view is this is a "soft" result, with no specific guidance. The analysts believe consensus forecasts will head south post the report, highlighting every banking revenue line fell during the half. Neutral. Target $74.
Target price is $74.00 Current Price is $74.44 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $73.63, suggesting downside of -1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 530.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 561.7, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 436.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DMP DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $48.85
Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -
First half results from the master franchisor in the US and franchisee in the UK suggest downside risk to the company's same-store sales growth forecasts. Still, while the business may no longer deliver the growth rates of previous years, Macquarie argues a de-rating of valuation is not necessary.
The business is expected to grow in excess of double digits per annum. Outperform rating and $55 target.
Target price is $55.00 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $6.15
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $49.38, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 109.80 cents and EPS of 155.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.3, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 137.10 cents and EPS of 192.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.6, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates DMP as Overweight (1) -
Domino's Pizza UK has reported first half results that show a slowdown in same-store sales growth to 4.7% in the second quarter from 7% in the first.
Morgan Stanley believes the UK alone explains half of this slowdown and, therefore, suggests Domino's Pizza Enterprises may not have slowed as much as previously believed.
Overweight rating retained. Cautious industry view. Target is $65.
Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $48.85 Difference: $16.15
If DMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $49.38, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 115.00 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.3, implying annual growth of 33.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 115.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 143.00 cents and EPS of 202.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.6, implying annual growth of 22.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 139.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ECX ECLIPX GROUP LIMITED
Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging
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Overnight Price: $2.03
Credit Suisse rates ECX as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -
Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform but also suggests there is a possibility the market's reaction to the company's profit warning might have been overdone.
Ascribing zero valuation to Right2Drive and GraysOnline, with a similar multiple for fleet operations as has SG Fleet ((SGF)), still generates a valuation of $2.10 for the business, calculate the analysts.
But risks have risen and material questions are now being asked given the quick deterioration in the outlook. Target price cut to $1.90 from $4.10.
Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If ECX meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 70.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ECX as Outperform (1) -
The company has downgraded FY18 net profit estimates and Macquarie reduces its forecasts by -10.8%, with FY19 forecasts reduced by -15.5% and FY20 by -17.7%.
The company has attributed the downgrade to reduced disposals at GraysOnline, as activity is affected by both a 10-year low in bank-initiated insolvencies in Australia and the current buoyant construction sector. New competitor offerings have also been affecting Right2Drive.
Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $2.56 from $4.27.
Target price is $2.56 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $0.53
If ECX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 70.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.10 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ECX as Buy (1) -
EclipX has downgraded FY18 guidance to $77-80m. This compares with UBS estimates of $87.7m. The primary drivers of the downgrade were GraysOnline and Right2Drive. UBS places its forecasts under review pending further assessment. Buy rating and $4.25 target maintained.
Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $2.03 Difference: $2.22
If ECX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 109% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.46, suggesting upside of 70.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.50 cents and EPS of 27.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 26.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.40 cents and EPS of 31.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IFL IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $8.77
Citi rates IFL as Buy (1) -
IOOF's result was largely in line with consensus. Funds under advice saw growth and investment management enjoyed strong profit growth but both came with margin pressure, the broker notes.
Cost control was excellent, the broker exclaims. Management is confident of ultimately achieving 20% plus accretion from its ANZ wealth management acquisition. Buy and $10.90 target retained.
Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $2.13
If IFL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 63.50 cents and EPS of 69.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 71.50 cents and EPS of 79.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates IFL as Outperform (1) -
FY18 underlying net profit was largely in line. Credit Suisse notes the synergies with the ANZ wealth acquisition have been pushed out resulting in FY19 guidance being lower than expected. FY19 EPS is downgraded -4% while FY20 is downgraded -2%.
The company's comments on the impact of regulatory headwinds were consistent with the broker's recent analysis. Outperform rating and $10.90 target maintained.
Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $2.13
If IFL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 77.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates IFL as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were slightly below Macquarie's expectations. The broker recognises the current regulatory landscape is challenging but believes a significant discount in valuation to take account of this is not really justified, given the growth profile following completion of the OnePath acquisition.
Cost performance was the highlight of the result but, with margin compression to continue, discipline will need to prevail, in the broker's view. Outperform rating. Target reduced to $11.20 from $11.40.
Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $2.43
If IFL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 65.50 cents and EPS of 72.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 87.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates IFL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley believes the results highlight the strength of the portfolio, cost discipline and the capacity to navigate regulatory uncertainty. The broker believes the business offers growth, with the capacity to navigate the changes that are affecting the sector.
Although risks to fees are elevated, ANZ wealth synergies help to smooth the pressures on margin. Overweight and $12 target retained. Industry view: In Line.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $3.23
If IFL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 71.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 88.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates IFL as Neutral (3) -
Results were in line and UBS believes the company has performed well in FY18, as a -3% decline in operating expenditure largely offset the squeeze on margins. However, the broker does not share the company's dismissal of wide-ranging regulatory and competitive challenges.
UBS maintains a cautious outlook and a Neutral rating with a $9.30 target. The flowing through of lower revenue margins and expenditure in the second half of FY18 are dominant drivers of the broker's provisions to EPS.
Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $8.77 Difference: $0.53
If IFL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.86, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 161.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 17.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
LNK LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $7.51
Morgan Stanley rates LNK as Overweight (1) -
The company's fund administration CEO has left and a search for a replacement is underway. Morgan Stanley considers the stock reaction highlights the fact the market is highly sensitive around news flow in funds administration.
However, the broker believes valuation multiples will expand as Link demonstrates it is taking action to remediate recent client performance and the superannuation account consolidation is proved to be manageable. The broker also considers European peers provide a positive read for the upcoming result.
Overweight rating and $9.00 target. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $7.51 Difference: $1.49
If LNK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.19, suggesting upside of 9.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 37.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.3, implying annual growth of 69.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.90 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.8, implying annual growth of 14.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $23.77
Ord Minnett rates MFG as Buy (1) -
Ord Minnett observes the stock has de-rated since the start of the new calendar year, despite booking progress on several metrics, also thanks to the acquisition of Airlie in Australia. The analysts think the improvement in the Global Fund's record in recent months will continue into the second half.
The broker reiterates its Buy rating, firmly arguing the de-rating that has occurred seems unwarranted. Target price lifts to $30.73.
Target price is $30.73 Current Price is $23.77 Difference: $6.96
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.46, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 147.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.0, implying annual growth of 19.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 123.50 cents and EPS of 162.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates MLX as No Rating (-1) -
The company has advised the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie that it is looking to bring in a strategic partner to develop the Wingellina nickel/cobalt project. The project already has environmental approvals and water rights.
Macquarie is on research restrictions and cannot provide a rating and target at present.
Current Price is $0.59. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents. |
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.57
Macquarie rates NHC as Outperform (1) -
The company will take control of Bengalla and Macquarie notes, despite coal prices more than doubling since September 2015, New Hope has paid less to Wesfarmers ((WES)) in inflation-adjusted terms than to Rio Tinto ((RIO)).
The broker believes the transaction is accretive to earnings by around 60% over FY19-22, rising above 70% beyond that timeframe. Outperform retained. Target rises to $3.80 from $3.20.
Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.23
If NHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.80, suggesting downside of -21.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.20 cents and EPS of 29.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.5, implying annual growth of 68.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.70 cents and EPS of 46.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $7.39
UBS rates NST as Buy (1) -
Northern Star has upgraded aspirations, targeting 700,000 ounces per annum in 2020 and 750,000 ounces beyond that point. UBS models 700,000 ounces as a sustainable concept.
The company is building a track record of beating guidance and expanding reserves and this underpins the broker's Buy rating. Target is $7.50.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.39 Difference: $0.11
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.24, suggesting downside of -15.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.4, implying annual growth of -1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.1, implying annual growth of 47.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.17
Citi rates NVT as Neutral (3) -
Navitas' result was largely in line with consensus, after adjusting for restructuring charges relating to the Careers & Industry division, which drove a lower dividend. The broker has cut FY19-20 earnings forecasts and dropped its target to $4.60 from $4.90.
After three years of declines, the broker expects Navitas to return to profit growth in FY19, but remains concerned over a lack of visibility with regard enrolment growth. Neutral retained.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.43
If NVT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 22.10 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates NVT as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. No guidance was provided but the broker estimates 7% growth in operating earnings in FY19.
With earnings re-based, the visibility on the outlook has improved while the maintenance of 2020 targets is a key positive, in the broker's opinion. Outperform. Target rises to $4.80 from $4.55.
Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.63
If NVT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 22.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.50 cents and EPS of 24.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates NVT as Equal-weight (3) -
FY18 results were in line with expectations. Morgan Stanley notes the full-year dividend has been cut by -11%. While there are a lot of moving parts to the result, the company has historically maintained a full-year dividend of 19.5c so the broker considers the reduction a negative signal.
Morgan Stanley will look to the investor briefing on September 21 for outlook commentary. Equal-weight rating retained. Industry view: In-Line. Target is $4.75.
Target price is $4.75 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.58
If NVT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 25.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates NVT as Neutral (3) -
Management has reconfirmed 2020 targets. No FY19 guidance was provided. An investor briefing has been scheduled for September 21.
UBS makes marginal changes to earnings forecasts with the immediate benefit of the SAE US closure offset by lower earnings growth beyond FY19. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $4.35 from $4.65.
Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $0.18
If NVT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.48, suggesting upside of 7.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 17.90 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.20 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.94
Deutsche Bank rates OFX as Hold (3) -
The company's trading update revealed all is well with the corporate customers, but retail clients not so. The analysts observe revenue growth across all regions and segments is a key positive.
The general background is one of low FX volatility, which adds to the credibility of the result, according to Deutsche Bank. Price target shifts to $2, but given that's close to where the shares are trading, the Hold rating remains unchanged.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: $0.06
If OFX meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates OFX as Neutral (3) -
The company's first quarter trading update revealed net operating income of $30.1m, up 13%. This is its best quarterly result, Macquarie observes. Growth was achieved across all regions and in both consumer and corporate businesses.
Ozforex expects investments in client experience to improve active client growth, particularly in the consumer segment in FY19 and beyond. Neutral rating and $1.83 target.
Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.94 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If OFX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 6.20 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 6.60 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.11
Macquarie rates OGC as Outperform (1) -
OceanaGold recently lifted 2018 production guidance to 500-540,000 ounces. The change in guidance was driven by strength at both Didipio and Haile, Macquarie observes.
At the Diggers and Dealers forum in Kalgoorlie, the company has suggested that the recent rally in the stock versus the Small Ordinaries is a sign of the market starting to recognise the value potential, after underperforming producing peers since early 2017. Outperform and $6.00 target reiterated.
Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.11 Difference: $1.89
If OGC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.63, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.59 cents and EPS of 28.67 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.38 cents and EPS of 41.51 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 4.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PRY PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $3.33
Credit Suisse rates PRY as Underperform (5) -
Credit Suisse believes, with continued reporting of non-recurring costs, valuation multiples appear stretched and the earnings outlook is challenging despite the improvement in industry pathology trends.
The broker makes minor changes to operating assumptions and reduces estimates by -2% for FY18 and -5% thereafter. Underperform rating. Credit Suisse reduces the target to $3.50 from $3.60. Primary Health Care will report its FY18 results on August 20.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.17
If PRY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.89 cents and EPS of 18.02 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 11.45 cents and EPS of 18.94 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 9.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RHC RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED
Healthcare services
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Overnight Price: $54.22
Deutsche Bank rates RHC as Buy (1) -
Spire Healthcare, competitor in the UK, issued a negative trading update with Spire's management suggesting the pressure to the downside has been tougher than expected, and is likely to stick for longer.
Deutsche Bank analysts comment the profit warning from a UK competitor reinforces just how difficult the NHS market is, but no changes have been made. Buy. Target $64.20.
Target price is $64.20 Current Price is $54.22 Difference: $9.98
If RHC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.44, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY18:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 299.5, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates RHC as Outperform (1) -
On the back of the trading update from UK hospital operator, Spire, Macquarie incorporates lower volume growth assumptions for Ramsay's UK operations in FY19.
The broker's investment view is underpinned by an expectation of contributions from brownfield developments and procurement savings, which should support growth in FY19 and into FY20. Outperform. Target is reduced to $71.00 from $71.50.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $54.22 Difference: $16.78
If RHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.44, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 142.50 cents and EPS of 278.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 152.00 cents and EPS of 297.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 299.5, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates RHC as Equal-weight (3) -
A UK competitor, Spire, has signalled it expects earnings to be materially lower in FY18. This is the first indication that Morgan Stanley has of Ramsay's potential FY19 outlook, due at the result on August 31, which may signal downside risk to consensus estimates.
Morgan Stanley expects Ramsay's UK business to grow 5% in FY19. Equal-weight retained. In-Line sector view. Price target is $57.
Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $54.22 Difference: $2.78
If RHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.44, suggesting upside of 11.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 155.50 cents and EPS of 281.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 269.9, implying annual growth of 3.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 172.80 cents and EPS of 295.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 299.5, implying annual growth of 11.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $76.78
Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -
Following the analyst briefing, Ord Minnett was left with the impression there was little Rio Tinto could do to arrest cost inflation around aluminium, most of which was attributed to higher raw material inputs and power costs.
The CEO noted there are still non-core assets that could be sold for value, but not under a fire-sale situation. In terms of growth, Rio is adding copper equivalent units but is doing so in a measured way at around 2%pa. Rio still sees incremental iron ore tonnes hurting the price, the key reason the company is holding back.
Accumulate rating and $94 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $94.00 Current Price is $76.78 Difference: $17.22
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $88.02, suggesting upside of 14.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 372.29 cents and EPS of 928.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 695.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 389.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 389.16 cents and EPS of 646.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 629.4, implying annual growth of -9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 376.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.53
Ord Minnett rates S32 as Hold (3) -
Previewing the FY18 results release on 23rd August, Ord Minnett has slightly trimmed its price target to $3.90 from $4. Post Rio Tinto's ((RIO)) cost disappointment for its aluminium division, the broker takes the view the same dynamic will apply for corresponding operations at South32.
The analysts also note market consensus for the upcoming FY18 result is rather wide, ranging US$0.96-1.60bn for reported net profits. Hold rating retained. The analysts also suggest South32 could top up its share buyback program by an additional US$500m.
Estimates have been lowered. On a relative basis, Ord Minnett prefers BHP ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto, considered cheaper, while not seeing a genuine rerating catalyst on the horizon for South32.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.37
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 15.57 cents and EPS of 31.13 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.76 cents and EPS of 33.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.1, implying annual growth of 11.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SCP SHOPPING CENTRES AUSTRALASIA PROPERTY GROUP
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Overnight Price: $2.45
Citi rates SCP as Sell (5) -
Shopping Centres' reported funds from operations was in line with upgraded guidance and the broker's forecast. FY19 FFO guidance meets expectations but the broker believes this may now look conservative given it does not include the recently announced Sturt acquisition.
Organic growth should continue to meet or beat peers, the broker suggests, but acquisitions will likely be harder to come by given rising debt costs and pressure on rents. The broker has had a Sell rating since the February result and retains Sell given the stock has since rallied 10%.
Target falls to $2.17 from $2.19.
Target price is $2.17 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: minus $0.28 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates SCP as Underperform (5) -
FY18 results were broadly in line with Macquarie's expectations. FY19 guidance is -3% below the broker's initial estimates. Despite increasing cost-of-debt expectations and moderating some forecasts, the broker expects FY19 free funds from operations of 15.8c per security.
The broker observes the business remains a lower-growth vehicle with limited earnings leverage to improving supermarket conditions. Underperform retained. Target is raised to $2.23 from $2.21.
Target price is $2.23 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SCP as Neutral (3) -
FY18 results were in line with UBS estimates. FY19 guidance is considered soft against expectations, driven by lower income growth and rising cost of debt.
The broker anticipates some pressure on the stock will be lifted, as the market prices in a lower probability of the company raising fresh equity to buy Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) assets. UBS prefers A-REITs with lower gearing at this point in the cycle. Neutral rating and $2.44 target.
Target price is $2.44 Current Price is $2.45 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If SCP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.26, suggesting downside of -7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 14.30 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of -33.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of 1.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.02
Ord Minnett rates SEK as Accumulate (2) -
Management at Seek has pre-announced its guidance for FY19 and Ord Minnett found it disappointing, but also that the subsequent sell-off was overdone. Seek is spending extra in Brazil and Mexico and the broker believes this makes perfect sense.
Ord Minnett believes share price weakness offers an opportunity for investors. Accumulate rating retained, with a price target of $23 (unchanged). Forecasts have been trimmed.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.02 Difference: $2.98
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.41, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of -43.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SEK as Sell (5) -
The company's FY19 outlook signals that expenditure growth will outpace revenue growth. The heavy re-investment in growth reinforces the expensive nature of the stock, UBS believes. The broker maintains a Sell rating and $19.50 target.
Target price is $19.50 Current Price is $20.02 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.41, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 66.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.8, implying annual growth of -43.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.7, implying annual growth of 12.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $11.99
Citi rates TCL as Sell (5) -
Making no mention of the FY18 result, the broker has focused on lower than expected FY19 dividend guidance which implies the company's lowest dividend growth year since FY13. The dividend will remain so if Transurban acquires WestConnex, the broker assumes, but could rise if not.
This suggests the dividend dip may be seen by the market as temporary, as was the case in FY13, but the broker believes headwinds are building with regard debt amortisation and tax. Management made no reference to any ACCC concerns.
Sell retained. Target falls to $10.39 from $10.52.
Target price is $10.39 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: minus $1.6 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 25.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 61.50 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates TCL as Buy (1) -
Post Transurban's FY18 report release, Deutsche Bank analysts reiterate they think the toll road operator still has plenty of growth opportunities at its disposal. They have reduced the price target by -25c to $13, predominantly due to lower CityLink growth forecasts.
The shares are trading at a marked discount to the broker's valuation and the analysts don't seem deterred by the present uncertainty regarding WestConnex in Sydney. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $1.01
If TCL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY19:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
FY18 results were in line with Macquarie's expectations. The outcome of WestConnex is unknown ,while the uncertainty around the dividend impact has been addressed within FY19 guidance.
Macquarie envisages potential upside to the dividend if the company's bid for WestConnex is unsuccessful, as cash will grow through Citylink, A25, LegacyWay and Gateway.
Further upside for investors is contained in the opportunity for other avenues of investment in the medium term, in the broker's view. Outperform rating and $12.28 target.
Target price is $12.28 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $0.29
If TCL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 58.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 65.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -
FY19 guidance for distributions of $0.59 per security was slightly below Morgan Stanley's expectations. The broker still considers the portfolio performance and growth strategy attractive.
On the negative side, the broker observes free cash flow is increasingly reliant on heavy vehicle traffic and high-occupancy toll pricing.
Equal-weight rating and Cautious industry view retained. Target is reduced to $13.06 from $13.18.
Target price is $13.06 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $1.07
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TCL as Add (1) -
FY18 results were below Morgans' forecasts. First time FY19 distribution guidance of $0.59 per security is calculated to generate a 4.9% yield at the current share price. Morgans estimates 6% growth over FY19-21.
The broker's modelling indicates the balance sheet has capacity, when combined with capital releases, to fund the company's committed projects. However, the significant construction, operating and funding risks of WestConnex suggests a capital raising will likely be required to support a successful acquisition.
A decision on the NSW government's sell down of its 51% stake in WestConnex is imminent. Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $12.60 from $12.52.
Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $0.61
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 62.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -
Transurban's FY18 results were up 10% on FY17 and ahead of consensus estimates. Full year dividend of $0.56 was below Ord Minnett's expectations.
FY19 dividend guidance of $0.59 highlights management's need to balance dividend growth with long-term value creation, in the broker's opinion.
The broker has made minor changes to earnings forecasts leading to a drop in the target price to $14 from $14.10. The Buy rating is retained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $2.01
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TCL as Buy (1) -
FY18 was slightly weaker than UBS expected. The broker suggests concerns about the near-term dilution are likely to be eased by the guidance. The company has guided to 5% growth in FY19 dividends to $0.59 per security, which will be maintained in the event of a successful WestConnex bid.
UBS retains a Buy rating but recognises the elevated uncertainty because of the impending outcome of the bid. $13.35 target retained.
Target price is $13.35 Current Price is $11.99 Difference: $1.36
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.69, suggesting upside of 5.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 19.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of 29.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.8. |
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.76
Macquarie rates VCX as No Rating (-1) -
Vicinity Centres will establish a $1bn wholesale fund with Keppel Capital, seeding assets from its balance sheet. This is in addition to the $1bn of asset sales that were announced in June.
Given the transaction should complete on or before March 31, 2019, Macquarie updates FY19 forecasts to reflect the completion of the wholesale fund. Macquarie is restricted on rating and target.
Current Price is $2.76. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $2.81, suggesting upside of 1.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 16.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of -8.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $50.49
Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -
Wesfarmers has sold its 40% interest in Bengalla coal to JV partner New Hope Corp ((NHC)) at 50% above the broker's expectation, in line with the price paid for the stake New Hope acquired from Rio Tinto ((RIO)) in 2015. The Bengalla price outstripped Curragh, which is a much bigger mine.
The sale provides greater balance sheet flexibility post the Coles demerger, the broker notes. The streamlining of the company's asset base is now largely complete. The risk for shareholders is what Wesfarmers now does with the money, the broker warns.
Target rises to $44.20 from $43.50, Sell retained.
Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $50.49 Difference: minus $6.29 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 245.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 229.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates WES as Hold (3) -
Hold rating and $46 price target retained as Wesfarmers has announced the sale of its 40% stake in the Bengalla thermal coal mine to JV partner New Hope ((NHC)).
Deutsche Bank had a $1bn valuation for Bengalla, suggesting a -$200m shortfall for Wesfarmers from this divestment. The analysts note the price equates the price New Hope paid to acquire its current stake of 40% from Rio Tinto ((RIO)), but thermal coal prices are much higher today.
Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $50.49 Difference: minus $4.49 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 223.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 252.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WES as Underweight (5) -
The company will sell its 40% stake in the Bengalla JV to New Hope ((NHC)) for $860m. Morgan Stanley estimates after-tax proceeds of $658m versus a valuation of $843m, meaning the transaction would be around -2% dilutive to FY20 EPS.
With this transaction, Wesfarmers completes its exit of the resources business. Underweight rating retained. Industry view is Cautious. Target is $42.
Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $50.49 Difference: minus $8.49 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 247.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WES as Lighten (4) -
Lighten rating and $45 price target retained as Ord Minnett analysts are previewing the upcoming FY18 results release, scheduled for 15th August. Underlying net profit is forecast to fall by -5.6% to $2.71bn.
Coles and Bunnings UK&I are expected to have gone backwards, while Bunnings A&NZ's performance should be strong. Kmart and Officeworks are expected to have performed strongly too.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $45.00 Current Price is $50.49 Difference: minus $5.49 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $44.98, suggesting downside of -10.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 225.00 cents and EPS of 99.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of -10.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 218.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 325.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 267.3, implying annual growth of 16.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.93
Morgans rates Z1P as Add (1) -
The FY18 loss was slightly better than Morgans expected. The broker notes positive momentum across the business, including achieving monthly break-even in cash flow in the fourth quarter, emerging scale benefits and news that several large merchant clients are in the offing.
Add rating maintained. Target is raised to $1.11 from $1.06.
Target price is $1.11 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.18
If Z1P meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates Z1P as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett saw a FY18 result in line with expectations, giving the analysts an opportunity to highlight various achievements by company management, further supporting the broker's positivie view.
Ord Minnett analysts regard the business as well positioned to build significantly upon its $750m-plus annualised run rate of underlying transactions with new products, such as the bill payments function, broadening the company's customer appeal.
Accumulate rating retained, as well as the $1 price target.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.07
If Z1P meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
A2M | A2 MILK | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $9.45 |
ALQ | ALS LIMITED | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.04 |
AMC | AMCOR | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $13.99 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.99 | ||
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $13.99 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $13.99 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.99 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.99 | ||
BAL | BELLAMY'S AUSTRALIA | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $10.63 |
BHP | BHP BILLITON | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $33.97 |
CBA | COMMBANK | Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $74.44 |
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $74.44 | ||
DMP | DOMINO'S PIZZA | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $48.85 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $48.85 | ||
ECX | ECLIPX GROUP | Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $2.03 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.03 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $2.03 | ||
IFL | IOOF HOLDINGS | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $8.77 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $8.77 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $8.77 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $8.77 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $8.77 | ||
LNK | LINK ADMINISTRATION | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $7.51 |
MFG | MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP | Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $23.77 |
MLX | METALS X | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $0.59 |
NHC | NEW HOPE CORP | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.57 |
NST | NORTHERN STAR | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $7.39 |
NVT | NAVITAS | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.17 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.17 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.17 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.17 | ||
OFX | OZFOREX GROUP | Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $1.94 |
Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.94 | ||
OGC | OCEANAGOLD | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $4.11 |
PRY | PRIMARY HEALTH CARE | Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $3.33 |
RHC | RAMSAY HEALTH CARE | Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $54.22 |
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $54.22 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $54.22 | ||
RIO | RIO TINTO | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $76.78 |
S32 | SOUTH32 | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $3.53 |
SCP | SHOPPING CENTRES AUS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $2.45 |
Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.45 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.45 | ||
SEK | SEEK | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $20.02 |
Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $20.02 | ||
TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $11.99 |
Buy - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $11.99 | ||
VCX | VICINITY CENTRES | No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $2.76 |
WES | WESFARMERS | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $50.49 |
Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $50.49 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $50.49 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $50.49 | ||
Z1P | ZIP CO | Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $0.93 |
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.93 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 27 |
2. Accumulate | 3 |
3. Hold | 18 |
4. Reduce | 1 |
5. Sell | 8 |
Wednesday 08 August 2018
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