Australian Broker Call

Shaw and Partners rates A1M as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners assesses AIC Mines' June quarter production as strong, with Eloise producing 3,202t copper at a cost of $4.58/lb in line with guidance. Cash flow was also strong with $28m operating flow and $16m net mine cash flow after capex.

FY25 production of 12,863t copper at 5,955oz gold exceeded guidance of 12,500t copper and $5,000 gold, respectively.

The company's FY26 production guidance is slightly below the broker's forecast, while cost is inside the range. A sensitivity analysis suggests a fall in gold price to $4,000/oz would lift cost by $0.20/lb.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 70c.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.39
If A1M meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 83.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Aeris Resources pre-released copper and gold production of 6.2kt/13.1koz, respectively. All-in-sustaining-costs and total capex came in better than anticipated by 5% and 7%, respectively, Macquarie notes.

No FY26 guidance was released and the analyst forecasts copper production of 19.4kt and gold production of 52.3koz, which sits below what was produced in FY25 by -22% and -5%, respectively.

Macquarie believes there are downside risks to FY26 guidance for both costs and production after a good end to FY25.

No change to Outperform rating. Target falls -7% to 27c.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.08
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 45.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AL3 as Buy, High Risk (1) -

AML3D secured a $1.2 million order for a containerised ARCEMY Small system, which will be deployed at the U.S. Navy’s Additive Manufacturing Centre of Excellence, a critical hub for testing and qualifying 3D technology.

The contract includes a 50% upfront payment, improving working capital and cash flow visibility for FY26.

Shaw and Partners highlights the significance of the contract as it increases the likelihood of future multi-year contracts.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 40c.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.08
If AL3 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie anticipates a sequential improvement in June quarter results for Ampol with forecast earnings before interest and tax at $246m as refinery margins rise and there is a positive contribution from Lytton.

Retail fuel volumes are expected to be soft with petrol volumes down -4.2% year to date and tobacco sales are expected to be challenging again, although it is less important for Ampol than Viva Energy ((VEA)), the analyst notes.

Macquarie lifts 2025 EPS estimate by 9.8% on higher refining margins and less tariff impact than previously expected, with 2026 EPS forecast lowered by -0.4%.

Target price rises 17% to $27.50 on better earnings outlook and a higher ascribed valuation. Ampol also has potential M&A appeal with Canada's Couche-Tard having bid for the company before.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.22 Difference: $0.28
If ALD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.00, suggesting upside of 15.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMI as Outperform (1) -

Aurelia Metals 4Q25 production was pre-released but operating costs came in above Macquarie's forecast by 12% due to higher mining costs. Sustaining costs were also above forecast by 13%.

Zinc recoveries are improving at 83% for Peak processing plant which was above the prior quarter by 8% and the highest achieved over the last few years, the analyst states.

Cash on hand was $110.1m at quarter end and no debt was drawn down. Aurelia Metals has an undrawn loan facility of US$23.6m offering total liquidity of $146m.

Outperform rated. Target maintained at 27c. Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS by -3% from higher costs and FY26 EPS estimate rises 6% on a revised hedge book profile.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.08
If AMI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.36, suggesting upside of 80.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett explains Aurelia Metals pre-released production as well as cash of $110m and FY26–FY28 guidance, which meant there was little to show in the latest announcement from the recent rebasing of expectations at the investor day.

Of note, costs appear to be lower as group expenses came in at $195.8m against the analyst's forecast of $201m, although unit costs were higher on lower gold sales.

Aurelia has cash in hand of $145m and an undrawn US$23.6m facility.

Buy rating retained with 31c target price.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.12
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.36, suggesting upside of 80.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates AMI as Buy, High Risk (1) -

June quarter results from Aurelia Metals were in line with guidance across all commodities, observes Shaw and Partners, including gold production of 45.4koz and copper at 2.7kt.

Costs for FY25 were well managed, in the broker's opinion, with full-year operating spend of $195.8m landing in the lower half of the $185–220m guidance range.

The analysts highlight liquidity remains strong with $110m in cash and access to an undrawn US$23.6m facility, supporting internal funding for Federation, Great Cobar and Peak optimisation.

The broker also points to progress at Federation and commencement of development at Great Cobar, which are expected to underpin a shift toward 40kt copper equivalent output later in the decade.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at 50c.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.31
If AMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.36, suggesting upside of 80.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AMP as Buy (1) -

AMP's second quarter cashflows were encouraging, in Citi's view, with improved net flows in the North wrap platform and positive momentum in Superannuation & Investments.

The broker notes these developments reinforce the valuation appeal of AMP’s platform business, which may justify a higher multiple over time.

AMP Bank GO is also viewed as a promising medium-term growth option, with new product rollouts continuing.

While the share price has rallied strongly, Citi believes further upside is possible if legacy issues are resolved and the market re-rates the platform at 25 times earnings.

Citi retains a Buy rating and raises its target price to $1.90 from $1.65.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.21
If AMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AMP as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

AMP's 2Q2025 report showed platform net cashflows rising $1.6bn, up 63.2% on the previous year, with AUM rising to $83.2bn from $78.8bn in the prior quarter, largely due to positive market moves, Macquarie explains.

The bank's gross loans and advances grew 1.6% on an annualised basis, up $185m in the quarter and closing at $23.5bn. No comments were offered on net interest margin or the strategic direction of the bank.

Macquarie lifts 2025 and 2026 EPS forecasts by 0.6% and 2.5%, respectively, from higher investment income.

The broker downgrades the stock to Neutral from Outperform due to a rise in the share price of 42%. Target price is lifted to $1.70 from $1.44 on a changed valuation methodology. AMP is due to report 1H25 result on August 7.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.01
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AMP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley highlights AMP reported around $680m positive net flows for the June quarter update or pre-pension payments around $1.6bn, which is the most robust quarter in many years.

On an annualised basis, net flow to AUM came in at 2% growth, which is a notable improvement on the outflows of -3% to -5% a few years back and ahead of Insignia Financial's ((IFL)) progress, the analyst states.

Platform AUM of $83.2bn met consensus expectations, and AMP Bank's mortgages advanced 2.8% on the previous quarter while deposits declined as management concentrated on margins.

Morgan Stanley believes there is more upside earnings potential for 2026 from cost outs, and the valuation multiple on the stock remains "undemanding".

Target price unchanged at $1.62. Overweight rating maintained.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If AMP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Buy (1) -

AMP reported a robust June quarter trading update with growth of 63% on the prior year due to a rise in net cash inflows for platform and positive cashflow for its superannuation and investments for the first time since 2017, Ord Minnett highlights.

The broker envisages ongoing growth in inflows which should help the market be more confident in the wealth manager's turnaround.

A focus on net interest margin saw AMP's bank loan growth at 0.8% on the previous year, which is no surprise to Ord Minnett.

The analyst has lowered EPS estimates by -0.7% for 2025 and -0.2% for 2026, which still sit some 10% above consensus expectations.

Buy rated with an upgraded target price to $1.85 from $1.63.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.16
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMP as Neutral (3) -

UBS suggests AMP’s second quarter update showed encouraging momentum, with wealth net flows of $679m outperforming consensus of -$133m. The analysts note the outcome was supported by a stronger performance in North (wrap platform) and Super & Investments.

Overall improvement was driven by adviser retention initiatives, explains the broker, digital advice rollout, and early success with Lifetime Super products targeting retirement.

AMP’s digital SME bank has shown early promise, believes UBS, but its deposit mix declined -2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 87%, and the broker maintains a flat FY25 net interest margin outlook.

Despite improving fundamentals, UBS sees limited valuation appeal and does not expect further capital returns in FY25.

UBS raises its target price to $1.70 from $1.35 after incorporating EPS changes and higher multiples in the Platforms division. Neutral rating unchanged.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.69 Difference: $0.01
If AMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BGA as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese.

There is no change to the Outperform rating and $6.40 target price. Macquarie flags the share price is likely to be underpinned by ongoing progress to management's FY28 targets and possible M&A upside.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $1.27
If BGA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.13, suggesting upside of 19.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CKF as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie lifts its target price on Collins Foods to $8.50 from $8.40 on the back of a roll forward of the analyst's discounted cashflow calculation.

No change in earnings forecasts.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.87 Difference: minus $0.37 (current price is over target).
If CKF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.93, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the upcoming reporting season should be solid for retailers, with recent data and industry feedback pointing to stronger retail sales in the fourth quarter of FY25.

This improvement comes despite a notable increase in household deposit growth in the second half, observes the broker, which has dampened discretionary spending.

The analyst expects this elevated savings behaviour to stabilise, and potentially unwind, once interest rates reach their forecast trough around late 2025.

On this basis, the broker estimates household spending capacity could rise by $50–90bn in FY26, supporting Citi’s view retail sales growth will accelerate in FY26.

For Coles Group, Citi lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by circa -1-2% over FY26-FY27, incorporating slightly higher D&A and a more muted store rollout profile in line with Woolworths Group ((WOW)).

Target lifts to $23 from $21. Buy.

In order, the broker's top picks in discretionary retail are JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $2.62
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.48, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

The analyst likes the expected earnings growth due to supply chain benefits while highlighting some market share loss to Aldi, Chemist Warehouse ((SIG)) and Bunnings ((WES)).

The target price is raised to $24.10 from $23.10 on a roll forward of the discounted cashflow valuation and an update on capex assumptions.

Macquarie's EPS estimates are lowered by -1% for FY25 and -2% for FY26 from Liquorland costs and a reduction of supermarket margin expansion. No change to Outperform rating.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $20.38 Difference: $3.72
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.48, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CQR as Buy (1) -

Charter Hall Retail REIT continues to deliver strong rental momentum, assesses Citi, underpinned by management's focus on triple net leases, turnover-linked structures, and long weighted average lease expiries (WALEs).

The REIT has transitioned away from gross leases to reduce capex leakage and improve income resilience, explain the analysts, with tenant retention strategies ensuring no downtime or leasing incentives.

Citi expects strong demand for convenience-based centres to lead to lower cap rates and an uplift in net tangible assets in the August results.

The broker also anticipates solid leasing activity and increased off-market transactions, with the Hotel Property Investments integration supporting further earnings growth into FY26.

Buy rating. Target price rises to $4.20 from $4.00.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $3.84 Difference: $0.36
If CQR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.89, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

No change to Neutral rating for Domino's Pizza Enterprises. The stock is an avoid together with Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) and Endeavour Group ((EDV)).

Target price falls to $18.40 from $30.50. The analyst's EPS forecast rises 2% for FY25 and falls -15% for FY26 and -22% for FY27 due to anticipation of lower margin recovery across the global network.

Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $18.13 Difference: $0.27
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.47, suggesting upside of 16.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EDV as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral (5) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Endeavour Group is a key avoid, along with Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)), and the stock is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

Target price falls to $3.80 from $4.10 due to an expected longer-term growth rate with uncertainty around a clear strategy and headwinds facing retail sales.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: minus $0.25 (current price is over target).
If EDV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates GGP as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Citi maintains its $8.00 target for Greatland Resources but upgrades to Buy from Neutral, citing recent underperformance relative to the Gold Index and supportive fundamentals.

The broker expects Greatland to close FY25 with approximately $530m in cash and generate 6% free cash flow in FY26.

At a long-term real gold price of US$2,300/oz, Greatland trades on less than 1.2 times price/net asset value (NAV), highlights Citi. 

An updated Havieron study due in the December quarter is expected to outline a larger 4–4.5mtpa project, balancing capital and operating costs while unlocking lower-grade material.

Citi's long-term gold price forecast moves to US$2,300/oz (real) from US$2,200/oz.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.72 Difference: $1.28
If GGP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HVN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Target price is raised to $5.90 from $5.50 with a lift in forecast EPS by the broker of 2% for FY26. No change to Outperform rating as Harvey Norman is the key pick for Macquarie in discretionary retail.

Commentary suggests a more prolonged recovery in the housing sector should support housing-related categories.

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.3
If HVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.24, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Bell Potter raises its target for Imdex to $3.05 from $2.65 and upgrades to Buy from Hold, noting early signs of a recovery in exploration activity and improved industry sentiment.

Junior equity raisings rose 65% year-on-year in the six months to June 2025, the highest since late 2021, which the broker sees as a positive signal for mineral exploration demand.

Industry updates from global manufacturer of mining and infrastructure equipment Epiroc and London-based Capital Drilling (mining services and drilling contractor) also point to renewed exploration investment, highlight the analysts.

Bell Potter lifts its FY26–27 EPS forecasts by 5% and 4%, respectively, driven by higher revenue growth, stronger margins, and lower cost of debt assumptions.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.68 Difference: $0.37
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.95, suggesting upside of 0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ING as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts for Inghams Group by -4% for FY25 and -6% for FY26 due to the unwinding of R&D tax credits, which is partially offset by lower interest costs.

The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform and target price rises to $3.70 from $3.50.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.57 Difference: $0.13
If ING meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting upside of 3.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JBH as Buy (1) -

Citi believes the upcoming reporting season should be solid for retailers, with recent data and industry feedback pointing to stronger retail sales in the fourth quarter of FY25.

This improvement comes despite a notable increase in household deposit growth in the second half, observes the broker, which has dampened discretionary spending.

The analyst expects this elevated savings behaviour to stabilise, and potentially unwind, once interest rates reach their forecast trough around late 2025.

On this basis, the broker estimates household spending capacity could rise by $50–90bn in FY26, supporting Citi’s view retail sales growth will accelerate in FY26.

For JB Hi-Fi, Citi raises its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by approximately 1% for FY26 and 2% for FY27, reflecting stronger trading performance at JB Hi-Fi Australia, partially offset by a more cautious store rollout outlook for E&S.

Target $120. Buy.

In order, the broker's top picks in discretionary retail are JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

Target price is $120.00 Current Price is $105.91 Difference: $14.09
If JBH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.37, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates JBH as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Macquarie downgrades JB Hi-Fi to Neutral from Outperform and target lifts to $112 from $111. No change to the analyst's EPS forecasts.

The broker states it would "look to add" JB Hi-Fi and Metcash ((MTS)) on any pullbacks for exposure to cyclical housing recovery.

Target price is $112.00 Current Price is $105.91 Difference: $6.09
If JBH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $99.37, suggesting downside of -5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MEI as Speculative Buy (1) -

Meteoric Resources announced its preliminary feasibility study and maiden ore reserve statement for Caldeira ionic absorption clay project in Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Ord Minnett notes the biggest change from the scoping study was a rise of 10% in pre-production capex to -US$443m due to a larger plant by 20% with 6mtpa throughput compared to 5mtpa previously, the analyst details.

Ord Minnett retains its 20c target price and Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.04
If MEI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.24, suggesting upside of 57.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MTS as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Macquarie downgrades Metcash to Neutral from Outperform with no change to its $4 target. 

The broker states it would "look to add" JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Metcash on any pullbacks for exposure to cyclical housing recovery.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.09
If MTS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.10, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NIC as Buy (1) -

UBS maintains a positive stance on Nickel Industries despite a stagnant commodity pricing outlook, citing its low-cost position and near-term operational catalysts.

While UBS's global commodity team remains bearish on the nickel market through 2025-28, there is thought to be limited downside with spot prices near the 75th percentile of the cost curve.

The broker's nickel price forecasts remain unchanged at US$6.90/lb for 2025 and US$7.50/lb for 2026, implying stability around current levels.

For Nickel Industries, the analysts highlight three key positives: its lowest-quartile cost base, the ramp-up of the ENC plant (which can deliver into LME markets), and potential upstream mine expansion including Sampala.

UBS is also incrementally more positive on management securing an expanded RKAB quota following feedback from its Indonesian nickel analyst.

Note: Without an approved RKAB or an approved increase in quota, a company cannot legally mine beyond specified volumes.

The broker raises its target price to 95c from 90c and continues to prefer Nickel Industries as a long-term play on low-cost nickel exposure. Buy.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.18
If NIC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.09, suggesting upside of 41.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie estimates less than 13% of gas plant gross margin is challenged by the addition of 14GW of batteries in the National Electricity Market by FY28.

Origin Energy has 2.3GW of gas-fired peaking capacity with the national market at around 12GW. Batteries are expected to operate as much as 60% of the afternoon peaks, which will impact gas plants.

The broker highlights Origin's battery portfolio will replace lost earnings and batteries will represent around $250m to electricity gross margin by FY28.

No change to $10.94 target and Neutral rating. Macquarie views the share price as already discounting the Kraken IPO.

Target price is $10.94 Current Price is $12.00 Difference: minus $1.06 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.10, suggesting downside of -8.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PMT as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Patriot Battery Metals has announced the world’s largest caesium resource at Shaakichiuwaanaan’s Vega and Rigel zones, with Rigel grades exceeding 10% caesium oxide, highlights Citi.

The caesium resource is constrained within existing lithium pits at CV-13. While this will not be included in the upcoming CV-5 feasibility study, the broker notes management plans metallurgical testwork to assess a by-product opportunity.

Citi raises its target price by 15c to 50c, reflecting a model roll-forward and reduced dilution assumptions following recent share price strength.

The broker highlights the strategic significance of the caesium find and maintains a constructive outlook on lithium growth via the Nova Zone discovery.

The Buy/High Risk rating is maintained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.04
If PMT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.65, suggesting upside of 32.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes Pantoro Gold announced a robust 4Q25 result with a FY26 guidance outlook that should benefit from higher grades, the analyst notes, as Scotia UG ramps up.

All-in-sustaining-costs came in lower than the broker's forecasts and the miner generated $43m in cashflow compared to Ord Minnett's $32m anticipated.

The analyst raises EPS estimates by 12%-16% for FY25-FY26 The stock is upgraded to Buy from Speculative Buy with a $4 target from $3.55.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.67
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PRN as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Perenti has upgraded its FY25 free cashflow guidance to approximately $280m, well above the prior estimate of $150m, highlights Bell Potter.

The uplift is mainly due to the $75m sale of mining equipment and $17m in inventory from the concluded Zone 5 Copper mine contract, explain the analysts. Even excluding this, free cashflow would be $190m, still $40m ahead of guidance.

Improved cash conversion above 95% and lower capex of circa -$300m (versus prior -$330m) also contributed to the result, reinforcing management’s focus on capital efficiency, suggests Bell Potter.

While this supports near-term deleveraging, Bell Potter expects capex to rise again as new contracts are mobilised, especially those requiring company-owned plant.

Bell Potter downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy, after an around 80% share price rise in the past year, and retains its target price of $1.80.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.05
If PRN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates RRL as Hold (3) -

Regis Resources delivered a solid June quarter, suggests Bell Potter, with group production of 87,376oz at a cost (AISC) of $2,812/oz, in line with expectations.

Full-year FY25 output of 372,884oz was within the top half of production guidance, while AISC of $2,531/oz landed in the lower half of the cost range, highlight the analysts.

The result marked record cash generation of $1,720/oz, lifting the cash balance to $517m with no debt, though no FY25 dividend is forecast, notes the broker.

FY26 guidance of 350–380koz at AISC of $2,610–2,990/oz implies to the analysts flat volumes but around -11% worse costs year-on-year, with capital and exploration spend rising to -$240–275m.

Bell Potter maintains a Hold rating and lowers its target price to $4.60 from $4.82.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.3
If RRL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RRL as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

Gold production of 350–380koz was slightly softer-than-expected by Citi. Costs (AISC) at $2,800/oz were around $100/oz worse than the consensus estimate, although $170/oz of this was non-cash and already modeled, explain the analysts.

Growth capex at Duketon is a key variance, with guidance of -$165–175m well above consensus of -$90m, observes the broker, as higher-cost pits and stockpiles are being mined to leverage current gold prices.

Citi lowers its net asset value (NAV) by -9% due to the higher cost base and cuts its target price by -30c to $3.80, noting the stock’s circa 20% outperformance versus the Gold Index so far this year. The broker's rating is downgraded to a Sell rating from Neutral.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: minus $0.5 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RRL as Neutral (3) -

Regis Resources' pre-reported production, cash, and bullion were followed by the latest update on all-in-sustaining costs, which met Macquarie's expectations and came in below consensus by -4%.

Management's FY26 guidance was higher than expected on costs, exceeding both consensus and the analyst's forecasts by 4% and 23%, respectively. Capex guidance was also higher, while production guidance met expectations.

The analyst lowers EPS estimates by around -38% over FY26–FY30 due to higher assumed cost and depreciation charges. The FY25 EPS forecast rises by 23% on a higher earnings (EBITDA) margin and lower depreciation expected to be reported versus the original estimate.

Macquarie lowers the target price by -8% to $4.50 and retains a Neutral rating.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.2
If RRL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Regis Resources delivered solid FY25 results, according to UBS, with June quarter production of 87.4koz bringing the full-year total to 373koz, the top end of guidance. Costs (AISC) at $2,531/oz were also below the guided range midpoint, highlight the analysts.

FY26 production guidance of 350–380koz is in line with the broker's expectations, though cost guidance of $2,610–2,990/oz is around -7% worse than UBS estimates. The latter is thought to reflect broader sector inflation and non-cash adjustments of $170/oz.

UBS raises its FY25 EPS forecast by 15% on better revenue and lower depreciation, but trims FY26–27 estimates due to slightly lower output and higher unit costs.

UBS upgrades to a Neutral rating from Sell and lowers its target price to $4.60 from $4.75.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.3
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.27, suggesting downside of -3.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

South32’s June quarter production was broadly in line with Citi's forecasts. Strong copper and aluminium offset softer alumina and manganese output, note the analysts.

Sierra Gorda benefited from higher copper grades and improved molybdenum recoveries, explains the broker, helping the group exceed FY25 production guidance by 2%.

A US$225m working capital release supported cash generation in the second half, and Citi estimates FY25 will close with net cash of around US$450m.

FY26 production guidance is largely unchanged, though Mozal remains under review due to electricity tariff uncertainty, leading Citi to reduce its risk weighting on the asset to 70% from 80%.

The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $3.40 target.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.38
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

South32 reported 4Q25 production updates with aluminium up 4%, manganese up 4%, Cannington up 11%, nickel up 25%, all better than Macquarie's expectations, with alumina and copper volumes meeting expectations.

Cannington guidance was withdrawn due to a mine plan review with a limited five-year mine life as at June 2024. The analyst believes the asset could be prepared for sale.

FY26 guidance for Hillside, Brazil Aluminium and Worsley remained unchanged.

No change in Outperform rating and $3.40 target price. Adjusting for the quarterly update, the analyst lifts forecast FY25 EPS by 3% and lowers FY26 by -4%.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.38
If S32 meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates S32 as Overweight (1) -

South32 reported a much stronger than expected manganese result, some 12% above Morgan Stanley's forecast and 25% above consensus, with the Australian ramp-up going well.

Aluminium came in above forecast by 2.3% against the broker and consensus, while alumina was below Morgan Stanley's forecast by -4.8% and -2.5% below consensus. There were delays to bauxite mining. Brazil also came in lower than expected due to feed rates from wet weather.

Cannington silver was higher than anticipated, as was Sierra Gorda copper and gold.

Overweight rating retained. Target $3.55. Target price industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.53
If S32 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates S32 as Buy (1) -

In the view of the analyst at Ord Minnett, South32 delivered a strong June quarter, with production either meeting or exceeding guidance and consensus expectations across most commodities. The exception was a minor shortfall in alumina, notes the broker.

Copper-equivalent output was 9% ahead of market forecasts, highlights Ord Minnett, and realised pricing and sales also beat expectations.

Unit costs aligned with FY25 guidance, with lower costs in Brazil and Colombia offsetting increases at the Hillside smelter, explains the analyst.

FY26 guidance was modestly lowered for Sierra Gorda copper and Brazil alumina, while operations at Mozal are under review due to energy issues, with a potential shutdown expected by March.

Recovery at the Groote Eylandt manganese operation is largely complete, notes the broker, with full output and shipping volumes expected to resume in the current quarter.

Ord Minnett raises its FY25 EPS forecast by 13%, trims FY26–27 estimates, and lifts its target price to $3.95 from $3.90 while retaining a Buy rating.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.02 Difference: $0.93
If S32 meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.60, suggesting upside of 18.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SIG as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Sigma Healthcare remains an avoid, with Endeavour Group ((EDV)), as Macquarie believes the market is discounting too much growth for the combined entity, although earnings growth should still be "sector leading".

Target price is lowered to $2.60 from $2.70. Lower growth in advertising results in a reduction in the analyst's forecast EPS by -7% for FY25 and -6% for FY26.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If SIG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.96, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley reiterates its Overweight rating for Superloop and raises its price target to $3.35 from $2.65.

The broker cites strong second-half momentum, improved market positioning, and continued execution on the Origin Energy ((ORG)) broadband partnership.

On June 30, management lifted FY25 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to at or above $91m, prompting the broker to raise its FY25 EPS forecast by 13%, with further EPS upgrades of 7-15% across FY26-27.

The analysts believe valuation remains compelling at 26 times forecast FY26 cash earnings and see upside not yet reflected in consensus. Potential subscriber gains are considered possible via NBN speed upgrades beginning in September.

The broker also highlights Origin's aggressive broadband customer targets as a source of potential earnings surprise, with minimal incremental cost for Superloop. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.06 Difference: $0.29
If SLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.50, suggesting upside of 12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SPZ as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following a review of the US parking industry, Shaw and Partners believes Smart Parking is well-positioned for opportunistic organic growth, primarily through its Peak Parking acquisition in Texas.

However, material expansion into new urban markets will require further acquisitions but the challenge would be competition with larger and better-resourced companies, the broker reckons.

FY26-27 EBITDA forecasts lowered to reflect a more conservative US growth projection. EPS forecasts unchanged.

Buy, High Risk. Target unchanged at $1.25.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.44
If SPZ meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

Treasury Wine Estates' target price is lowered to $8.40 from $8.50 with no change to Neutral rating. No change to Macquarie's EPS estimates.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $8.09 Difference: $0.31
If TWE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.57, suggesting upside of 18.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Citi expects Woodside Energy's June quarter update to show production and revenue modestly ahead of consensus, with production up 1% and revenue up 4%, driven by stronger realised pricing despite weaker trading revenue.

The broker anticipates 2025 production is tracking in line with guidance, while Sangomar output is expected to decline from the third quarter.

Progress on key growth projects such as Scarborough and Beaumont Ammonia will be in focus, suggest the analysts. No update is expected on a potential Louisiana LNG sell-down, which Citi still models at -30% by 2026.

Citi maintains a Neutral rating and a target price of $21.50.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $24.75 Difference: minus $3.25 (current price is over target).
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.13, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WES as Sell (5) -

Citi believes the upcoming reporting season should be solid for retailers, with recent data and industry feedback pointing to stronger retail sales in the fourth quarter of FY25.

This improvement comes despite a notable increase in household deposit growth in the second half, observes the broker, which has dampened discretionary spending.

The analyst expects this elevated savings behaviour to stabilise, and potentially unwind, once interest rates reach their forecast trough around late 2025.

On this basis, the broker estimates household spending capacity could rise by $50–90bn in FY26, supporting Citi’s view retail sales growth will accelerate in FY26.

For Wesfarmers, Citi lowers its earnings (EBIT) forecasts by approximately -1% for FY26 and -3% for FY27, reflecting expectations of more prolonged losses at Covalent Lithium.

Target $60. Sell.

In order, the broker's top picks in discretionary retail are JB Hi-Fi, Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $83.75 Difference: minus $23.75 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.08, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WES as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, alongside Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

No change to Neutral rating. Target lifts to $82 from $80 due to an update on valuation to peers' multiples. The analyst lowers FY26 EPS estimate by -2%.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $83.75 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If WES meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $73.08, suggesting downside of -12.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights a lack of confidence in 2025 continues to be an overhang on consumer spending, but share prices for consumer-related stocks have run ahead of the recovery expected as the RBA lowers interest rates.

Coles Group ((COL)) is a key pick for the broker, together with Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

The broker sees lower Australian store openings in the near term for Woolworths Group and has lowered recovery expectations in NZ and for W Living (Big W). No change to FY25 EPS estimate with the analyst lowering FY26 EPS forecast by -2%.

Target price falls to $33.40 from $33.60.

Target price is $33.40 Current Price is $31.23 Difference: $2.17
If WOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $33.01, suggesting upside of 6.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources