Australian Broker Call

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

For ALS Ltd, Ord Minnett lifts EPS forecasts by 0.7% for FY26 and 3.1% for FY27. Target price is raised to $24.10 from $22.60 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.

Target price is $24.10 Current Price is $24.04 Difference: $0.06
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $24.51, suggesting upside of 2.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMC as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

Following a review of the packaging sector ahead of the February reporting season, Ord Minnett upgraded Amcor to Buy from Hold on valuation and improving earnings outlook.

The broker highlights consensus for earnings forecasts are currently sitting at the low end of guidance. 

While EPS estimates are unchanged post 5-for-1 share consolidation, potential capital returns and brighter-than-expected earnings support a higher valuation, the broker explains.

Target lifted to $73.50 from $70.50, after also accounting for a higher risk-free rate of 4.5% from 4.0% into the models.

Target price is $73.50

Current consensus price target is $81.88, suggesting upside of 31.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMI as Buy (1) -

Aurelia Metals announced a robust 2Q26 quarterly update with a beat on gold, copper and zinc production that came in above Ord Minnett and consensus forecasts by 10% and 26%, respectively, at Peak.

Costs were kept under control and operating cash flow was $6m higher than anticipated on strong prices.

The analyst notes growth projects are proceeding well, with Federation ahead of plan.

Target price lifts to 50c from 45c with Buy rating retained.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.18
If AMI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 37.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ANZ as Sell (5) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

ANZ Bank was the standout bank in 2025, the broker acknowledges, as the new CEO reset earnings, cut costs, strengthened capital and outlined a clearer profitability path.

However, the broker is sticking to Sell rating, arguing the $21bn market cap premium does not fully compensate investors for 2026 execution and growth risks. Target rises to $35 from $30.

Target price is $35.00 Current Price is $36.17 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $34.81, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AV1 as Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Adveritas' ARR (annual recurring revenue) reached $14.3m in 2Q26, up 17% q/q and slightly ahead of forecast, marking a third consecutive quarter of  $2m growth.

Operating cash flow missed expectations due to lower receipts and higher payments, largely reflecting a shift from annual to monthly billing, though the cash balance remained stable.

No change to ARR, revenue and EBITDA forecasts, though FY26 cash outflow forecast was increased, resulting in higher net operating cash flow forecast. Still, the broker expects cash flow positivity in FY27.

Buy. Target trimmed to 22c from 23c on increase in risk-free rate in the valuation to 4.5% from 4.25.

Target price is $0.22 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.09
If AV1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BEN as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

The investment case is seen clouded for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank by the overhang of an AUSTRAC AML/CTF investigation. As a result, costs are likely to rise more than expected, putting pressure on an already stretched 10% ROE target.

No change to forecasts and $10.95 target. Neutral retained.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $10.76 Difference: $0.19
If BEN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.30, suggesting downside of -7.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

Simplification, strategy execution, profit focus and balance sheet de-risking have improved Bank of Queensland's valuation outlook, the broker highlights. More efficient capital use is expected to lift returns over time.

Double upgrade to Buy from Sell. Target rises to $7.50 from $6.75, though no change to forecasts.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: $1.07
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.73, suggesting downside of -0.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BPT as Hold (3) -

Beach Energy's December quarter production met Bell Potter's expectations, while sales and revenue exceeded due to additional Waitsia LNG cargos and recovery in the Cooper Basin.

Overall realised prices were -5% lower, as weaker oil and LNG prices outweighed slightly stronger gas prices. Net debt fell to $445m and liquidity increased to $925m following a new $300m term loan.

FY26 guidance was unchanged as Waitsia Stage 2 ramps up, reaching 66% of nameplate capacity post-quarter, the broker highlights.

Hold rating and $1.10 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BPT as Sell (5) -

The surprise in Beach Energy's December quarter update was an additional cargo lift from Waitsia as ramp-up risks ease, Citi observes. Investor focus now shifts to sustainable free cash flow (FCF) and balance sheet strength ahead of potential M&A.

The broker reviewed the company’s history of production and FCF downgrades from operational issues and rising sustaining/abandonment capex, concluding it’s unclear whether risks are fully behind.

Despite remaining execution risk, the target price rises to $1.00 from $0.95 on stronger Cooper Basin production after a faster-than-expected post-flood recovery.

Sell retained.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BPT as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Beach Energy's 2Q26 production met consensus, while sales beat expectations on two Waitsia LNG liftings and gas pricing was also slightly stronger due to LNG mix.

Waitsia achieved first sales gas in December and is ramping toward nameplate capacity in the March quarter, the broker highlights. Capex was lower than expected due to timing, with FY26 guidance unchanged and balance sheet positioning intact.

FY26 EPS forecast increased by 16% but FY27 cut by -11%. Underperform maintained as the broker still sees downside risk to share price in the near term.

Target rises to 80c from 76c.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BPT as Underweight (5) -

Waitsia 2's much-awaited first gas came through on Dec 6, with a peak production rate of 165TJ/day over January, and nameplate capacity aimed around 4Q26, as announced in Beach Energy's 2Q26 update.

Morgan Stanley expects a "muted" reaction. Beach's 2Q26 production fell -9% q/q and was up 14% y/y to 4.5mmboe, which beat consensus by 2%. Sales revenue over the quarter fell -17% q/q and down -21% y/y but beat the analyst's forecast with two Waitsia cargos.

Capex was $166m, meeting expectations, while floods impacted Western Flank (Cooper) but is now restored, and Equinox phase 2 starts in March. First half results are expected Feb 5.

Target unchanged at $1.12. Underweight retained, and Industry View is In-Line.

Target price is $1.12 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BPT as Neutral (3) -

Beach Energy delivered a strong December quarter, with sales revenue beating consensus by 10% on additional LNG liftings and production exceeding expectations as Cooper Basin flooding eased, UBS notes.

Despite the solid result, the broker remains cautious due to potential Waitsia commissioning delays and possible changes to capital and dividend policy. The latter is expected to be flagged at the 2H26 results.

Beach Energy is one of the broker's least preferred Australian energy exposures. Neutral rating and $1.15 target are unchanged.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.13 Difference: $0.02
If BPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

No change to forecasts for CommBank and $125 target. The broker likes the bank's business banking strategy and growth optionality, but its stretched valuation underpins the Sell rating.

Target price is $125.00 Current Price is $147.22 Difference: minus $22.22 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $117.30, suggesting downside of -22.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates CWP as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners finds ABS's housing completions data useful as it uses the correlation between approvals and completions to forecast future housing activity.

The latest September quarter completions data, together with approvals data, imply 11% growth in FY27 completions across Cedar Woods Properties' core states, the broker highlights. This is consistent with existing earnings and valuation assumptions.

The data does not affect 1H26 forecasts given the company's guidance for 20% net profit growth in FY26, and that profit would be weighted towards 1H.

Buy, High Risk. Target rises to $9.40 from $9.35.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $8.44 Difference: $0.96
If CWP meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CYL as Buy (1) -

Catalyst Metals reported record production of 28.2koz of gold and 24.8koz of gold sales from Plutonic, which beat Morgans’ forecast by 9% but missed consensus by -6%.

The gold miner has retained FY26 guidance of 100-110koz and all-in-sustaining-costs of $2,200-$2,650/oz, and the analyst is now forecasting using the upper end of guidance at 109koz and costs of $2,539/oz.

Morgans has also increased the gold bull case assumption to US$4,000/oz from US$3,500/oz.

A Buy rating is reiterated. Target lifted to $12.51 from $10.58.

Target price is $12.51 Current Price is $9.26 Difference: $3.25
If CYL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DOW as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Downer EDI is expected to provide quantitative guidance in February in line with consensus, with focus on progress toward FY30 revenue and margin targets of 4-5% compounded annual growth, the broker highlights.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts cut by -1% on higher corporate cost estimates. Outperform rating and $8.50 target are unchanged.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $0.42
If DOW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates DOW as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

Downer EDI has won $5.3bn in work for 1H26 once the preferred status of the NZ Transport Agency deal is included, which underpins a robust pipeline.

No change to Accumulate rating on Downer EDI with a lift in target to $8.85 from $8.45. The broker's EPS forecast rises by around 3% for FY26.

Target price is $8.85 Current Price is $8.08 Difference: $0.77
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.45, suggesting upside of 4.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DRO as Buy (1) -

In a report titled "Year of the Drone," Bell Potter highlights strong 2026 opportunities for ASX drone and counter-drone companies as heavy drone losses in Ukraine drive accelerated global UAS and C-UAS procurement.

Key 2026 catalyst for DroneShield, in the broker's view, is potential US Public Safety contract awards, particularly from US$250m allocated for C-UAS protection at the FIFA World Cup and America 250 events.

2025 EPS forecast lifted by 4%, 2026 by 8% and 2027 by 3%, after factoring in 5% rise in revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027.

Target rises to $5.00 from $4.40. Buy maintained.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $4.32 Difference: $0.68
If DRO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates ELS as Buy (1) -

In a report titled "Year of the Drone," Bell Potter highlights strong 2026 opportunities for ASX drone and counter-drone companies as heavy drone losses in Ukraine drive accelerated global UAS and C-UAS procurement.

The broker lifted Elsight's 2027 EPS forecast by 5% on a stronger commercial revenue growth forecast, driven by confidence in the US Part 108 approval and the launch of the Aura platform.

In the short term, the broker's key preference is Elsight.

Target rises to $4.60 from $3.60. Buy maintained.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $3.87 Difference: $0.73
If ELS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates EOS as Buy (1) -

In a report titled "Year of the Drone," Bell Potter highlights strong 2026 opportunities for ASX drone and counter-drone companies as heavy drone losses in Ukraine drive accelerated global UAS and C-UAS procurement.

The broker notes Electro Optic Systems' recent announcement on the MARSS acquisition, which provides the NiDAR AI-enabled command-and-control platform. The broker reckons it closes a key gap in its counter-drone capabilities to offer an end-to-end C-UAS solution.

The acquisition is seen strengthening the company's prospects as a prime contractor on large programs, supporting sales of existing effectors, and introducing recurring software revenue.

2026 EPS forecast lifted by 1% and 2027 by 17%. Target rises to $12 from $9. Buy maintained.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.09 Difference: $1.91
If EOS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Evolution Mining's December quarter report showed strong production at 191koz with AISC (cost) well below consensus. The outcome was supported by higher copper by-product credits and a stronger copper price.

Record net mine cash flow of $412m was generated, with net cash turning positive in FY26. The broker expects Evolution to deploy capital into accelerated or new projects while maintaining dividends.

The company trimmed FY26 group ASIC guidance while maintaining production guidance and flagging an improvement to gearing to 6% from 11% in the September quarter. 

Mungari’s expanded mill performed above nameplate, while key project studies (Northparkes E22, Ernest Henry Bert) are complete and under board review, the broker highlights.

Ernest Henry rain delays led to a cut to 2H26 production forecast, but the broker simultaneously upgraded gold price forecast by 6% for FY26 and 13% for FY27. Target price rises to $14.40 from $12.70, and Neutral retained.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $14.79 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.47, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes Evolution Mining's 2Q26 production and AISC (cost) beat consensus, driven by stronger by-product credits. Production came in at 191.2koz, ahead of the broker's forecast by 2% and 3% higher than consensus.

The company cut FY26 AISC guidance by -6% on by-product credits and cost management. FY26 EPS forecast was lifted by 6% on higher production and lower costs.

Targer rises to $10.20 from $10.10, but Underperform maintained on valuation grounds.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $14.79 Difference: minus $4.59 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.47, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Trim (4) -

Morgans notes Evolution Mining delivered strong operational performance amid higher gold and copper prices, boosting cash flow and balance sheet strength.

Cash flow was robust, lifting cash balance to $967m, reducing gearing to 6%, and leaving no debt maturities until 2028. FY26 production guidance was maintained, copper expected at the low end due to weather, while cost guidance was cut -6%.

Trim maintained. Target rises to $13.20 from $11.10 mainly on commodity price and forex revisions.

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $14.79 Difference: minus $1.59 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.47, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

The highlight of Evolution Mining's December quarterly was AISC (cost) of $1,275/oz which UBS describes as "sector-leading" and came in well below its forecast and consensus of around $1,700/oz.

Gold production was strong and the higher realised copper prices helped, while FY26 production guidance was reiterated and cost guidance cut -6%.

With Ernest Henry flood impacts manageable and Mungari running at 200kozpa, the broker reckons the focus shifts to OPC progress and upcoming board decisions on Northparkes E22 and Ernest Henry Bert.

Target rises to $12.20 from $10.70. Sell maintained.

Target price is $12.20 Current Price is $14.79 Difference: minus $2.59 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.47, suggesting downside of -12.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HLI as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie anticipates the strength in the domestic economy will underpin lower claims for 2H2025 and the trend could be sustained over the near term.

Stronger investor activity in the housing sector could support gross written premium growth, with Helia Group's lenders mortgage insurance book essentially for investor mortgages. The analyst has accordingly lowered the claims forecast for 2H2025 and slightly increased gross written premium.

The broker lifts EPS estimates by 3% for FY26 and FY27.

No change to Underperform rating and $3.95 target.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $5.67 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If HLI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HUB as Hold (3) -

Hub24 announced 2Q26 net flows up 5% q/q at $5.58bn, a record and also ahead of consensus, which enabled 1H26 net flows of $10.7bn, also a record, Morgans explains.

FUA came in higher than both the broker's and consensus estimates at $127.9bn, while adviser growth slowed during 2Q26, up 0.9% q/q or 48 additions compared to an average of 136 over the last two years.

The analyst flags an upcoming robust 1H26 result and upgrades underlying FUA forecasts by 4-5% for FY26, resulting in a rise of around 1-2% to earnings (EBITDA) forecasts in FY26-FY28.

No change to Hold rating and $110.60 target. Morgans expects Hub24 to continue to solidify its market leading position along with Netwealth Group ((NWL)) in the platform sector.

Target price is $110.60 Current Price is $101.39 Difference: $9.21
If HUB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $112.30, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates JDO as Buy (1) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

Judo Capital stands out as a growth stock in a low-growth banking sector, in the broker's view, with FY27 cash net profit forecast at $170m and  EPS growth of 36% CAGR. At full scale by FY29, profits could reach $300m, the broker estimates.

Buy rating and $2.20 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.84 Difference: $0.36
If JDO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting upside of 10.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LNQ as Speculative Buy (1) -

Linq Minerals' maiden drilling at the Dam deposit within the Gilmore gold project delivered thick, consistent gold-copper intersections that infill and extend mineralisation.

Bell Potter notes grades and widths compare favourably with regional producers, confirming a continuous higher-grade core and potential for further extensions at depth and along strike.

Upcoming follow-up drilling at Dam and Gidginbung could act as positive share price catalysts, the broker highlights, noting Linq is trading cheaply versus peers.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to 90c from 44c.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.25
If LNQ meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Lynas Rare Earths announced a mixed 2Q26 quarterly update, with production missing expectations by -13% and sales -20%. On the positive side, realised prices beat by 22% at $85.6/kg.

Production of rare earth oxide at 2,382t and NdPr output of 1,404t were also -13% lower than market forecasts. The softer operations were highlighted last November due to power supply issues in Kalgoorlie, with planned maintenance in Kuantan.

The broker lowers EPS forecasts by -3% for FY26 and lifts FY27 by 5%, noting management is strategically seeking secure sales contracts with customers outside of Japan and China that are prepared to pay higher prices outside of the Asian metals index.

Outperform rating reiterated. Target rises around 3% to $17.50 from $17.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.27 Difference: $1.23
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths' shares rose 6.6% after the Dec quarter update despite missing production and cost expectations. Ord Minnett attributes this to higher-value NdPr inventory sales that lifted average rare earth oxide prices to $86/kg.

The broker reiterates the Sell case on the stock relies on speculation around floor prices for Lynas and sees the quarter operating cash flow of $164m as light against a $15bn market capitalisation.

Sell rating maintained. Target price lifts to $11 from $10.50 previously, with the analyst viewing the share price as overvalued.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $16.27 Difference: minus $5.27 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LYC as Buy (1) -

UBS remarks 2Q26 NdPr production of 1,404t from Lynas Rare Earths was better than forecast but below previous guidance by -30%.

Sales revenue was above estimates due to higher-than-anticipated realised prices, up 58% q/q versus the benchmark NdPr price up 3%, resulting from a better product mix and the NdPr drawdown.

Kalgoorlie power remains an ongoing issue, with considerations around privatisation of off-grid solutions to secure energy stability, the broker notes. Mt Weld expansion saw the finalisation of commissioning in the December quarter.

The analyst upgrades EPS forecasts by 8% for FY26 on the revenue beat, with an unchanged Buy rating and $17.70 target.

Target price is $17.70 Current Price is $16.27 Difference: $1.43
If LYC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.81, suggesting downside of -18.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MAD as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

No change to Mader Group's Outperform rating and $10.40 target price.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.57 Difference: $1.83
If MAD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MGH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Outperform rating and $5.55 target are unchanged for Maas Group.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $5.45 Difference: $0.1
If MGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MND as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Monadelphous Group has had strong contract momentum with seven FY26 awards totalling $1.19bn, leading the broker to view guidance as conservative. FY26 revenue growth forecast lifted to 30%, above the 20-25% guidance.

FY26 EPS forecast increased by 5% and FY27 by 6%. Target rises to $31.00 from $26.36. Outperform remains.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $29.57 Difference: $1.43
If MND meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.75, suggesting downside of -2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates MQG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS upgrades Macquarie Group to a Buy rating from Neutral with a higher target of $235 from $225. The broker views Macquarie Asset Management’s (MAM) exit from public markets in the US and Europe positively, alongside the transition to private markets (infrastructure).

Private markets are now the largest portion of AUM, and a 10.1% CAGR is forecast for fees from FY25-FY30, in excess of consensus at 8.4% CAGR.

The analyst raises FY26 EPS by 10.1% and trims FY27 by -0.9%, with the FY26 expected to benefit from gains on divestment of the US/Euro public markets business. Ex public markets, UBS’ EPS forecasts are -7% below consensus in FY27-FY28.

On private market fees, UBS's forecast is higher due to the robust deal backdrop, while Commodities and Global Markets revenue continues to be concerning post the FY23 peak.

Target price is $235.00 Current Price is $205.85 Difference: $29.15
If MQG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $227.20, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NAB as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

National Australia Bank has successfully defended its business banking position and is well placed to benefit from structural lending growth, UBS highlights. 

With the stock underperforming in 2025, the broker sees a cleaner re-rating opportunity for the bank than peers. FY26-27 EPS and dividend forecasts are increased.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target rises to $47.00 from $42.50.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $41.18 Difference: $5.82
If NAB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.59, suggesting downside of -9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWH as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

The broker reckons NRW Holdings offers attractive valuation and growth versus peers, supported by strong operational momentum and a positive re-rating from Fredon integration and margin recovery.

Outperform rating and $6.05 target are unchanged.

Target price is $6.05 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $0.79
If NWH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Buy (1) -

Netwealth Group delivered strong custodial net flows of $4.06bn in 2Q26, slightly ahead of Citi's forecasts despite one-off outflows.

Custodial FUA (funds under administration) reached $124.4bn, up 23% y/y, and 1% ahead of the broker's forecast, with market movements contributing $0.6bn vs the analyst's expectation of a negative impact.

The negative surprise was a lower-than-expected FY26 EBITDA margin guidance of 49%, -170bps lower vs the broker's estimate, due to higher costs.

The broker expects the stock to be weak today as margin guidance points to a -3% downgrade to the consensus FY26 net profit forecast.

Buy. Target $29.80.

Target price is $29.80 Current Price is $25.86 Difference: $3.94
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $32.51, suggesting upside of 30.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NXT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie reckons the market is pricing a dilutive equity raise for NextDC, but there's no such need because of room for debt raising.

The recent contract wins have lifted EBITDA forecasts and can support up to $5.3bn of debt capacity and 2 years of capex runway, in the broker's estimates.

At current share prices, debt and alternative funding (including third-party co-investment) are more attractive and value-accretive than equity, in the broker's view.

EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -7% and by -59% for FY27, but no change at the underlying EBITDA line, with the broker also removing 2H26 equity raise from the forecast. Target rises to $22.30 from $20.90 

Outperform maintained.

Target price is $22.30 Current Price is $12.94 Difference: $9.36
If NXT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.50, suggesting upside of 57.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ORA as Hold (3) -

Following a review of the packaging sector ahead of the February reporting season, Ord Minnett trimmed Orora's FY26 EPS forecast by -4.5% and FY27 by -2.4%.

The broker notes scanner data shows further weakness in spirits volumes, with ultra-premium declining for the first time since 2020, pressuring Orora’s Saverglass business.

Hold rating and $2 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $2.12 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy's 2Q26 uranium production beat expectations at 1.23Mlbs, driven by higher throughput, grades and recoveries, Bell Potter highlights. Sales volumes and realised prices were strong, lifting revenue and margins.

Costs improved with C1 at US$39.7/lb vs US$41.6/lb in 1Q, and cash costs US$48/lb, while liquidity remained strong with US$278m cash and a US$70m credit facility.

Management expects production toward the top end of guidance, and the broker sees scope for a future upgrade. The broker's updated modelling points to a conservative FY26 output of 4.7Mlbs vs 4.4Mlbs, the upper end of guidance range.

Buy. Target rises to $15.30 from $12.50, following a sharp lift to FY26 EPS forecast, and a 1% rise to FY27.

Target price is $15.30 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: $2.13
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.46, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes 2Q26 production at Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich mine of 1.23Mlb U3O8 beat consensus by 20% on higher throughput and grades.

The broker reckons the company is well positioned to exceed FY26 guidance, and its revised forecast is 4.6Mlbs versus the 4.0-4.4Mlbs guidance.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 40% on stronger Langer Heinrich production and capitalised operating costs, but FY27 cut by -7% on sales timing. 

Target rises to $12.35 from $11.10 and Neutral maintained.

Target price is $12.35 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: minus $0.82 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.46, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Post Paladin Energy's 2Q26 production results, which were a strong beat, Morgan Stanley now expects the uranium company to generate positive EPS for FY26 versus a loss previously.

Slight changes to the ramp up assumptions for Langer Heinrich in FY27 result in the analyst lowering the EPS estimate by -13%.

The target price is raised to $14.45, up 20% from $12.05 previously, with an Overweight rating retained.

Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $14.45 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: $1.28
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.46, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Sell (5) -

Paladin Energy's Langer Heinrich produced 1.2mlb and sales of 1.4mlb for the December quarter, which beat consensus by 19% and 21%, respectively.

Costs came in better than expected at US$40/lb, some -22% lower than forecast, and higher production was achieved, Ord Minnett notes, due to throughput, recoveries and grade.

Management pushed back against an upgrade to FY26 guidance, suggesting it is premature at the analyst briefing. The analyst disagrees, noting Langer Heinrich mine production would have to decline to achieve the upper end of guidance at 4.4mlb.

Ord Minnett believes the stock is priced for excellence and any miss could be adverse for investors.

Target price lifted to $9.75 from $7.50 with a Sell rating retained.

Target price is $9.75 Current Price is $13.17 Difference: minus $3.42 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.46, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PMV as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Premier Investments to Outperform from Neutral and views circa 71% of the company's equity value is now "low-risk." The balance is made up by retail, Peter Alexander and Smiggle, which are trading at historically "cheap" levels.

The broker's high-frequency consumer data, foot traffic and Google indicators reflect positive indications for Peter Alexander's Australia sales. Around $8.35-$9.89 of value per share could be added if Peter Alexander traded in line with ASX-listed apparel retailers, in the broker's opinion.

Re Smiggle, the weakness in trading and management churn is now priced in, and the Breville Group ((BRG)) stake now sits at 56% of Premier's market capitalisation, historically high.

Target price retained at $16.20.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $12.76 Difference: $3.44
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.40, suggesting upside of 45.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Praemium delivered a solid 2Q26 with operating metrics ahead of forecasts, tracking to guidance, despite OneVue-related attrition, while full-year synergies remain achievable, Bell Potter highlights.

Net flows were slightly below expectations but platform FUA and Scope/Scope+ additions beat forecasts, with positive momentum in portfolio administration.

Technotia remains a key catalyst via automation-led savings and potential superannuation upgrades, while the sales pipeline is underappreciated, in the broker's view.

Buy. Target rises to $1.10 from $1.05, following minor upgrades to EPS forecasts for FY26-27.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.3
If PPS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PPS as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett was encouraged by some positive trends that emerged from Praemium's 2Q26 update.

Platform FUA grew 1.7% q/q and up 19% y/y, which was in line with expectations, with net flows of $462m, and a notable uplift in Powerwrap net flows. After two years of outflows, there have been two consecutive quarters of positive net flows.

SMA was softer at up $24m but well below the quarterly average growth of $185m in FY24-FY25.

The analyst tweaks net profit after tax forecasts up 2% for FY27. No change to Buy rating and $1.15 target.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.35
If PPS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRN as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Perenti's target price of $2.65 and Outperform rating are unchanged.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.94 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If PRN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting downside of -1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates QBE as Overweight (1) -

The launch by QBE Insurance's QBE Re (reinsurance arm) of its first ever sidecar, US$550m referred to as George Street Re, will expand the insurer's capacity in casualty and liability lines, Morgan Stanley details.

The vehicle is funded externally and will provide capital relief in around 18-30 months and could generate additional gross written premium of US$600-US$900m in casualty insurance. This would contribute an estimated 3-4% to gross written premiums, the analyst states.

Management is expected to offer guidance in February, with Morgan Stanley currently forecasting FY26 gross written premium ahead of consensus.

QBE is also one of the lead insurers on the Spanish rail crash, with its reinsurance capping maximum exposure to a single event at US$50m.

Target $22.80. Overweight retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $3.22
If QBE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $22.74, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RDX as Overweight (1) -

Redox is the next on Morgan Stanley's key ideas in small and mid-caps going into reporting season, with the analyst positive on the company's 1H26 earnings report, with scope for the result to beat expectations.

Consensus sales growth of around 6% for the half sits below the qualitative 1Q26 trading update, and there has been a pick up in domestic chemicals and ingredients import volumes over the first two months of 2Q26 from the prior quarter.

Management continue to remain cost disciplined, with scope for the share price to continue to re-rate.

Overweight. Target remains at $3.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.35
If RDX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Rio Tinto announced its 4Q2025 quarterly report with a robust finish to 2025, according to Morgan Stanley.

Simandou's first shipment was in December, post around 2.1mt of crushed ore stockpiled at the mid gate at the end of the quarter. Iron ore production met the analyst's expectations and sales came in 2-3% better than anticipated.

Copper reported another robust quarter, with mine and refined production 5% and 11% higher versus the analyst's and consensus forecasts due to Kennecott and Oyu Tolgoi's good performances.

Aluminium was in line and bauxite an 8% beat. No news was announced on Glencore.

Equal-weight rating. Target price $138. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $138.00 Current Price is $150.10 Difference: minus $12.1 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $139.67, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Trim (4) -

Rio Tinto achieved record 4Q2025 Pilbara iron ore production and shipments, which came in at the lower end of guidance, offsetting some of the cyclone disruptions from 1Q2025, Morgans observes.

Copper was a 14% beat on both the analyst's and consensus forecasts, by 14% and 12%, respectively, due to Escondida and Oyu Tolgoi, and Simandou achieved its first shipment.

Bauxite came in -3% below expectations but 6% better than consensus, while alumina and aluminium were basically in line with forecasts.

The 2025 results are due on Feb 19, including unit cost guidance.

A Trim rating and $140 target are retained.

Target price is $140.00 Current Price is $150.10 Difference: minus $10.1 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $139.67, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett downgrades Rio Tinto to Hold from Accumulate with an unchanged target of $150 due to valuation.

The December quarterly revealed robust production, with output across iron ore, copper, bauxite, alumina and aluminium all beating expectations, with mixed achieved pricing.

Copper benefited from higher throughput at Kennecott and the ramp up of Oyu Tolgoi. Post the update, the broker lowers the 2025 EPS forecast by -2.6% and lifts 2026 by 3.9%.

The mining heavyweight retained 2026 production, and cost guidance is due at the 2025 results on February 19.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $150.10 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $139.67, suggesting downside of -7.7% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SRG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

SRG Global's first half FY26 operating earnings (EBITDA) are expected to grow 23%, with organic growth of 7% and contributions from the Diona and TAMS acquisitions. Scope for an earnings upside surprise is seen due to the robust contracting activity in 1H26.

The broker downgrades the rating to Accumulate from Buy with a higher target of $3.20 from $3.15.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.99 Difference: $0.21
If SRG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SSM as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Service Stream's Outperform rating and $2.70 target are unchanged.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.18 Difference: $0.52
If SSM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.68, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VAU as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Vault Minerals' 2Q26 production missed Macquarie's forecast by -10%  due to lower gold grades across all assets, with KoTH the largest detractor at -14% production miss.

The company maintained the FY26 production guidance, and the broker notes it is on track so far. Year-to-date costs are, however, trending 4% higher than the guidance midpoint.

After a weak 2Q, the broker now expects FY26 production toward the lower end at KoTH. A reduced medium-term grade outlook led to a lowering in group production forecasts by -4% for FY27-28, while remaining within guidance.

FY26-28 EPS forecasts trimmed by -14%. Target cut to $6.50 from $7.00, and rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $0.21
If VAU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Vault Minerals reported a weaker 2Q26 update, with lower grades impacting production, which missed the analyst's forecast by -13% and consensus by -10%.

Cash and bullion fell by -$83m, with the production miss pushing up mining and processing costs, which were 21% above expectations.

FY26 guidance was retained at 332-360koz with all-in-sustaining-costs at $2,650-$2,850, with Vault flagged to achieve 49% of the target, or 169koz, at $2,865/oz in 1H26.

Target lifts to $7.40 from $7.10 with a Buy rating retained.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $1.11
If VAU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Buy (1) -

Vault Minerals announced weaker-than-anticipated December quarter gold production of 76koz, as the Leonora mill experienced maintenance and contractor issues. This put a brake on Koth’s underground mining rates, UBS explains.

Post the closure of most of the miner’s hedging book in November, the analyst depicts the Vault story as one around cash flow generation.

The broker forecasts gold production of 375/405koz in FY27/FY28 at an all-in-sustaining-cost of $2,797/oz, which could move the miner to a debt-free position.

Buy rating retained with a higher target of $7.75 from $6.60.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: $0.96
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates VNT as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Ahead of Ventia Services' FY25 results, the broker forecasts $255m net profit, up 12% y/y and at the top end of 10-12% guidance. 

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 0.2% and FY26 by 2%, reflecting additional $150m buyback forecasts.

Target rises to $6.50 from $5.50 on earnings revisions, valuation roll-forward and higher peer multiples. Outperform remains.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: $0.32
If VNT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates VNT as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

Ventia Services is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate with a higher target of $5.85 from $5.25. The company is expected to report FY2025 net profit at the upper end of guidance growth of 10-12% after announcing $4.2bn in contracts over 2H2025.

The stock is downgraded due to valuation.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $6.18 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If VNT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.01, suggesting upside of 1.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates WBC as Neutral (3) -

UBS notes the 2026 outlook for Australian banks supports consensus earnings growth of 6%, but valuations remain 40% above historical averages, limiting further re-rating.

The broker reckons cost control will be critical, noting FY26 consensus is for -0.6% y/y fall, with essential tech spend offset by rising staff costs driven by wage inflation and workforce mix changes. Likely interest rate rises could boost net interest margins.

Westpac’s strong retail deposit base underpins a turnaround in returns, with cost extraction, efficiency gains and potential capital release supporting further upside, the broker highlights.

No change to forecasts and $40 target. Neutral retained.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $38.11 Difference: $1.89
If WBC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $34.72, suggesting downside of -10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WGX as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie notes Westgold Resources' 2Q26 group production of 111.4koz beat consensus by 24% and was 30% ahead of its forecast. AISC (cost), though, came in higher due to OPA (ore purchasing agreement) costs.

The company maintained FY26 production guidance of 345-385koz, and the broker upgraded its forecast to 380koz following strong 2Q production.

FY26 EPS forecast lifted by 1%. Target price rises to $8.20 from $7.40, and Outperform retained.

The Higginsville expansion study expected in 3Q remains the key catalyst, the broker highlights.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $0.67
If WGX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WGX as Buy (1) -

Westgold Resources announced a robust 2Q26 quarterly update with cash and bullion of $150m, some $43m in excess of Ord Minnett's forecast after paying back debt of -$50m. The result was better than expected.

The ore purchase agreement with New Murchison Gold ((NMG)) at 22.3koz generated $14m in free cash flow.

The analyst highlights the quarterly revealed the benefit of blending softer oxide through the Meekatharra mill, which is expected to ease over future quarters.

Westgold continues to ramp up Bluebird South Jn, Great Fingal and Beta Hunt, which the broker is positive about.

Buy maintained. Target rises to $8.65 from $7.65.

Target price is $8.65 Current Price is $7.53 Difference: $1.12
If WGX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates WOR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects a strong earnings season for contractors, supported by broad-based demand, improving margins, strong balance sheets and a positive outlook, particularly in energy transition

The broker's preferences include Monadelphous Group, Ventia Services, NRW Holdings, Downer EDI and Maas Group.

Worley has the largest 1H/2H skew at 39:61, the broker highlights, creating risk around the scale of 2H improvement due to restructuring costs and weaker 1H contract wins. Still, CP2 contributions and stronger resources/energy activity is seen supporting 2H.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts cut by -1% on higher interest costs following refinancing. Outperform maintained, with a slightly reduced target of $15.62 from $15.75.

Target price is $15.62 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $2.74
If WOR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates WOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett reviews the contracting sector ahead of reporting season to include a rise in the assumed risk free rate to 4.5% from 4%.

The broker also notes the sector has experienced positive momentum, notably in infrastructure services, where contracts of more than $4bn in the six months to December have been awarded.

The project deferrals or cancellations, such as Shell's Rotterdam biofuels project and ExxonMobil's Baytown ammonia development in Texas, are expected to impact 1H26 earnings, but this is believed to be largely discounted in the share price.

A Buy rating is retained with a lower target of $16.45 from $16.50.

Target price is $16.45 Current Price is $12.88 Difference: $3.57
If WOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.37, suggesting upside of 35.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates XRO as Buy (1) -

Citi notes Xero is hiring a GM of Product for Mid-Market, signalling progress on its planned expansion into a new global mid-market offering.

While the stock has de-rated on AI concerns, AI-enabled development could help Xero accelerate product launches and feature expansion, the broker reckons.

Buy. Target price $210.

Target price is $210.00 Current Price is $98.90 Difference: $111.1
If XRO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $200.05, suggesting upside of 103.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources