Australian Broker Call

Macquarie rates AGL as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie highlights AGL Energy reported better-than-expected 1H25 results, exceeding both the broker’s and consensus forecasts for net profit after tax.

Management raised FY25 guidance by $65m at the lower end to $580m-$730m. The dividend of 23c per share was below the analyst’s 26c forecast.

Notably, the company benefited from improved electricity trading, which offset lower pricing, the analyst highlights. The gas result was "disappointing," while cost management was viewed by Macquarie as good.

The broker believes the end of AGL Energy’s gas contract in FY28/FY29 will be offset by battery growth, which is noted as interesting.

The target price is raised to $12.29 from $12.08, with an Outperform rating retained. Macquarie lifts EPS estimates by 6.1% for FY25 and lowers FY26 by -4.6%.

Target price is $12.29 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $0.56
If AGL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.97, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates AGL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes AGL Energy reported slightly better-than-consensus earnings, with management’s FY25 guidance implying lower earnings in 2H25 due to reduced customer demand, a seasonal factor, continued competition, and flat costs, the analyst states.

The company’s pipeline stands at 7GW, including Firm Power, Terrain Solar, and the Liddell Battery (500MW), with the first target charge expected in early 2026.

Morgan Stanley flags growing caution around the Outperform rating due to potential policy changes ahead of the May 17 Federal Election, including household subsidies and nuclear power.

Overweight. Target $12.88. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $12.88 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: $1.15
If AGL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.97, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AGL as Neutral (3) -

Following a further review of AGL Energy's 1H result, UBS raises its target to $11.50 from $11.00 with stronger pool price premium forecasts and battery earnings offsetting higher capex estimates. The Neutral rating is maintained.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

AGL Energy reported a 1H25 result with underlying net profit after tax exceeding the consensus forecast by 21%, UBS states on first take.

The result was also better than the broker's expectations due to higher electricity retail prices and increased pool revenue from the company's generation pool, the analyst highlights.

Customer numbers were essentially flat, meaning electricity earnings were underpinned by higher prices.

The analyst points to gas, which came in slightly below expectations due to softer retail and wholesale generation volumes, although better prices provided a slight offset.

Management narrowed FY25 guidance with some improved transparency on coal and gas supply contracts, which is expected to alleviate margin concerns for 2027-2028 as low-cost fuel supply expires, the broker details.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.73 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $11.97, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AOV as Buy (1) -

Amotiv reported 1H25 earnings before interest and tax below consensus by -1%, while net profit after tax missed consensus by -37% due to NZ impairments, restructuring, and greenfield costs, Citi details.

The broker believes the market’s reaction and impact on the share price was overdone. The Buy rating is reiterated, with a higher target price of $14.13 from $12.65 due to valuation changes.

Powertrain and undercar performance was positive, Citi notes, with revenue growth of 5.8%, though freight costs, inflation, and investment in Infinitev resulted in lower earnings growth of 4.8%.

Citi highlights weakness in the 4WD segment, with earnings margins shrinking by -118bps due to softness in pickup/SUV sales, caravans, and NZ.

Lighting, power, and optical revenues also declined. Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, and Citi believes an improving consumer sector with interest rate cuts should benefit the company’s more consumer-sensitive businesses.

The analyst lowers net profit after tax forecasts by -3% for FY25 and -1% for FY26. Post conference call Citi notes management has shifted to near term profitability at the expense of medium term growth opportunities which the market is expected to like.

Target price is $14.13 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $4.26
If AOV meets the Citi target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AOV as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes a pickup in new vehicle sales is a precursor to improved earnings for Amotiv, noting the company’s 1H25 results largely met expectations and were "solid" despite a challenging operating environment.

Acquisitions boosted revenue growth to 2.3% over the period, while organic revenue declined by -3% year-on-year due to weakness in the 4WD segment.

Leverage remained within the company’s target range at 1.75x, and management retained FY25 guidance, with stronger earnings expected in 2H25 due to new product launches, business wins, and restructuring benefits, the analyst explains.

Macquarie lowers EPS forecasts by -4% for FY25 and -3% for FY26. The target price declines to $12.94 from $13.64.

No change to the Outperform rating.

Target price is $12.94 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $3.07
If AOV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AOV as Add (1) -

Morgans notes Amotiv's 1H25 result was in line with expectations, and the group reaffirmed FY25 guidance for revenue and EBITA growth, with various initiatives, business wins and recent investments to contribute to a stronger 2H.

The broker expects an improved 2H outcome but prefers to wait for evidence of improving operational performance across the core divisions before assuming a significantly stronger 2H outcome in its forecasts. 

For now, the broker is assuming a minor 2H skew to underlying EBITA, forecasting growth of 5% vs 1H, with FY25 EBITA estimated at $198.5m.

Target price rises to $12.95 from $12.80. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $12.95 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $3.08
If AOV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AOV as Buy (1) -

UBS lowers its target for Amotiv to $12.60 from $13.00 after further reviewing 1H results, following single-digit downgrades across long-term earnings forecasts.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

At first glance, Amotiv's 1H25 results were largely in line with UBS' expectations, although the analyst explains the earnings mix was "messy" due to a challenging operating environment.

The company's 4WD business came in better than feared, the analyst explains, despite weaker vehicle volumes and caravan sales in NZ.

Management continues to guide to a stronger 2H25 earnings skew but did not offer any further details on where the incremental growth will be generated.

January trading has seen forward workshop bookings at one to two weeks, which UBS views as stable. The trend in new vehicle sales in NZ has continued, and South African revenue is in line with targets.

UBS does not view consensus earnings upgrades as likely, which is reflected in the stock's lower valuation relative to peers. 

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $9.87 Difference: $2.73
If AOV meets the UBS target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.16, suggesting upside of 33.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ARF as Neutral (3) -

Arena REIT reported 1H25 earnings results that met Macquarie's expectations but exceeded consensus by 2%, the broker notes.

Like-for-like rental growth for the period was 3.2%, a slowdown from FY24 and FY23, due to lower CPI-linked escalators, which the analyst anticipates will remain lower in the future but be offset by market reviews of an estimated 7%-10% per annum.

The REIT’s gearing declined slightly to 20.8% from 22.6% at the end of FY24, and management retained FY24 guidance for a dividend per share of 18.5c.

Neutral rating retained. The target price slips by -1% to $3.96 from $3.99.

Target price is $3.96 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.05
If ARF meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates ARF as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights Arena REIT reported an in-line 1H25 result against consensus expectations, with management retaining FY25 dividend per share guidance at 18.25c.

The broker notes lower-than-forecast interest expenses contributed to a slight earnings beat against consensus, though the result was in line with the broker’s forecast. Like-for-like income slowed to 3.2% compared to previous periods due to issues with rent reviews.

Management expects the 18 reviews to be resolved by the end of 2H25. Notably, the REIT has been active in acquisitions across the healthcare segment, acquiring 11 operating properties at a 5.8% yield on total cost and six at a 5.7% yield, the broker notes.

NTA rose to $3.44 from $3.41 and low gearing at 20.8% places the REIT in a good position to finance the $131m pipeline, Morgan Stanley explains.

The target price remains at $4.65. Equal-weight. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $4.65 Current Price is $3.91 Difference: $0.74
If ARF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.26, suggesting upside of 11.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ASX as Sell (5) -

Better net interest income and flat costs helped ASX announce a slightly better-than-expected net profit after tax for 1H25 versus UBS’ expectations, according to the analyst’s first take.

Group revenue declined by -1.4%, which was below forecast, while the earnings before interest and tax margin rose 240bps to 59.3%, exceeding expectations.

Management reconfirmed expense growth guidance of 6%-9%, with total cost guidance to be provided at the June 2025 investor forum. UBS believes rising capex and depreciation/amortisation will limit earnings potential.

The Sell rating and $65 target remain unchanged.

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $63.20 Difference: $1.8
If ASX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $63.38, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBT as Add (1) -

Morgans believes the acquisition of TopSport ticks all the right boxes and will give Bluebet Holdings the necessary scale to edge closer to its market share targets while achieving profitability. 

The acquisition expands Bluebet's market share to 6% from 5% and is expected to be more than 30% EPS accretive to consensus forecasts in FY26-27.

The broker notes the company remains confident in its execution, viewing this as the first step in a broader M&A strategy over the next 12 months.

The broker raised FY26 EPS estimate by 42%. Add rating maintained and target price lifts to 47c from 43c.

Target price is $0.47 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.11
If BBT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

UBS expects only modest to moderate shipment and production disruptions for Australian iron ore and lithium producers as they prepare for the impacts of tropical cyclone Zelia.

The broker maintains its $42 target for Neutral-rated BHP Group.

Other potentially affected iron ore miners, according to UBS, are Fortescue ((FMG)) and Mineral Resources ((MIN)), while the latter's lithium operations could also be impacted, along with those of Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)).

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $40.14 Difference: $1.86
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $45.20, suggesting upside of 10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates BMN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes early works are well underway at Bannerman Energy’s Etango Uranium Project in Namibia following a recent site visit. The project's scale and scalability are considered key strengths.

The broker now views Etango as a project in development for the current cycle rather than an advanced exploration project for the next cycle.

Shaw and Partners retains a Buy, High-Risk rating with a $7.40 target price.

Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $4.4
If BMN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 147% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BVS as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Macquarie upgrades Bravura Solutions to Outperform from Neutral, raising the target price to $3.17 from $2.05 due to higher earnings forecasts, lower capex, and improved operating efficiency.

The company reported better-than-expected 1H25 revenue, around 5% above the broker’s forecast, which underpinned a 14% beat on earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation (EBITDA), along with a return of capital and dividends announced for 2H25.

The EMEA segment was well ahead of forecasts, while APAC was slightly lower. Cash on hand ended at $151.8m following the Fidelity license sale.

Following a FY25 guidance upgrade in November, management further raised revenue guidance by 2.9% at the midpoint and EBITDA by 11.8% at the midpoint.

Macquarie lifts EPS forecasts by 25% for FY25 and 9% for FY26.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.74 Difference: $0.43
If BVS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Citi interprets the 1H25 CommBank result as broadly in line with expectations. Marginally better-than-forecast revenue was offset by higher costs from increased investment spending.

The analyst explains the metrics using the term "jaws" equation, where costs are growing in excess of revenue growth.

Citi describes costs as having "detached" from inflation at a time when the outlook for growth is becoming more challenging.

The broker believes share price performance has been underpinned by upgrades to earnings estimates, though momentum may now be shifting to a more difficult operating environment.

Sell rating and $91.50 target unchanged.

Target price is $91.50 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $74.48 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CBA as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie notes CommBank generated a 1H25 result that was basically in line with expectations, although expenses were higher, offset by better revenue growth and a slight lift in margins, the analyst explains.

The broker attributes the boost in net interest margin to lower liquid assets, and if excluded, the margin rose 1bp on the previous half, lower than stated.

CommBank's impairments were well below Macquarie's estimate, with strong credit quality observed. Home loan arrears rose by 1bp to 66bp on the previous half.

The rating remains at Underperform due to a stretched valuation and a weak earnings growth outlook over the next few years. 

Macquarie makes minor changes to EPS forecasts but the dividend per share forecast lifts by 2.1% in FY25 and 2.5% in FY26. Target remains at $105. No change to Underperform rating (see share price).

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $60.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -

CommBank reported 1H25 earnings in line with Morgan Stanley's expectations.

The broker notes momentum in franchises remains strong, risks to margins have seemingly declined, credit quality is solid, and the balance sheet is robust.

Loan growth is expected to remain above the system rate while maintaining margins, the analyst believes, with mortgage margin headwinds easing and the bank well positioned to capitalise on deposit rate repricing.

Investment in technology and infrastructure is as expected, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a compound annual growth rate in expenses of around 4% over the next three years.

Target price increases by 7% to $127. Underweight rating due to the elevated valuation. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $38.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CBA as Reduce (5) -

Morgans notes CommBank's 1H25 net interest income beat its forecast by 2% and consensus by 1%, and interim dividend of $2.25 was ahead of its own $2.15 forecast. Still, the broker found nothing in the result to underwrite the elevated share price.

Among the negatives, Morgans highlights the asset base benefited from above-trend home lending growth but this was accompanied by an even stronger growth rate in mortgage offset balances and a decline in liquid assets.

The broker raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 1%, and lifted FY25 and FY26 DPS estimates by 4% and 6% respectively. Target price rises to $102 from $95.31. 

Reduce recommendation maintained.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $63.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CBA as Sell (5) -

Ord Minnett notes CommBank's 1H25 earnings and interim dividend were modestly ahead of market expectations, driven by a 4.2% sequential rise in total income and a lower bad debt ratio than forecast. 

The broker highlights the sequential 3.3% rise in home loan book was flattered by the increased proportion of offset accounts in the
mix. Adjusting for this, the broker estimates underlying growth of 1.9%.

CommBank had a record-high 42% of loan flows in the first half to wealthy investors and overseas students which are non-interest bearing.

The broker questions if this is sustainable in the longer term, given competitive pressures to attract wealthy investors and an expected slowing in the immigration rate.

Target price of $105 and Sell rating are maintained.

Target price is $105.00 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $60.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CBA as Sell (5) -

UBS retains its $115 target for CommBank following 1H results. The Sell rating is also maintained on valuation, with the analyst highlighting an around 40% share price rise over the past 12-months.

A summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

UBS is yet another broker to question CommBank's valuation in light of a 60c EPS beat for 1H25. The broker highlights a 40% rise in the share price for a 3.2% lift in the 1H25 EPS result over the last year.

On first inspection, the analyst notes revenue growth of 4% was in line with expectations, while opex was higher than anticipated, up 3% on the previous half-year. Impairment expenses were lower than forecast by -18% and -27% below consensus.

While UBS believes the results are positive in terms of factors underpinning EPS momentum, the analyst raises a flag over cost growth.

The dividend met expectations.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $165.98 Difference: minus $50.98 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $107.58, suggesting downside of -35.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CPU as Neutral (3) -

Computershare reported a stronger-than-expected 1H25 result, with EPS exceeding the consensus estimate by 6%, Citi notes.

Importantly, the broker states management raised FY25 EPS guidance to 15% growth, up from around 7.5% previously in constant currency.

Plans and Issuer Services delivered strong growth over the period, with fee income from Plans higher than anticipated. A lower effective tax rate of 24% also supported the 1H25 result, Citi explains.

The broker raises EPS forecasts by 9% for FY25-FY27, noting that positive tailwinds from issuer services transactions, debt issuance volumes, and strong plan volumes have materialised sooner than expected.

Neutral rating retained. Target price increases to $40.90 from $35 as the stock’s valuation is revised higher.

Target price is $40.90 Current Price is $41.53 Difference: minus $0.63 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $38.07, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CPU as Hold (3) -

Computershare's 1H25 EPS of US$0.653 was up 19% year on year, a strong result benefitting particularly from an uplift in transactional and event-based revenue, Morgans highlights.

The broker notes the company produced a record 32% return on invested capital in 1H25, up from just 15% two years ago, highlighting the benefits of management's high-quality and capital-light business strategy.

The broker lifts FY25-26 EPS estimates by 6-7% on increased revenue and margin assumptions. Target rises to $42.01 from $34.44 on earnings changes and a valuation roll-forward. Hold retained.

Target price is $42.01 Current Price is $41.53 Difference: $0.48
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.07, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CPU as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Computershare's 1H25 earnings and interim dividend were ahead of market forecasts, as increased transaction revenue more than offset higher interest charges and operational expenses.

The company upgraded its FY25 EPS growth guidance to 15%, on increased margin income from higher client balances, a lower tax rate and the completion of its share buyback.

The broker upgraded EPS forecasts by 7% across the FY25-27 horizon. This pushed the target price higher to $42.00 from $36.25 but the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $41.53 Difference: $0.47
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $38.07, suggesting downside of -10.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia's 1H25 core profit of $37m beat Citi and consensus forecasts by 17% and 16%, respectively, due to cost control. Revenue fell -2% short of the consensus estimate.

In an early assessment, the broker highlights the profit result also benefited from a lower D&A expense as management changed the estimated life of software assets. Citi sees potential for high single-digit profit upgrades to the consensus forecast.

Management lowered its FY25 opex guidance to high single-digits from high single-digits to low double-digits, implying to Citi 12-14% year-on-year cost growth in H2.

Neutral rating. Target $3.20.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.47
If DHG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DHG as Neutral (3) -

Domain Holdings Australia reported a strong 1H25 result, UBS notes on initial inspection, which was better than expected but driven by corporate cost savings and lower depreciation/amortisation (D&A) charges.

Underlying net profit grew 21% versus UBS’ estimate of 15% and consensus at 15%, with D&A providing a 10% boost. Estimates suggest consensus earnings upgrades of around 4%-6% for FY25.

The analyst highlights digital performance was in line, but the surprise came from the translation of corporate cost savings into 2H25.

Management detailed new 'for sale' listings were up 3% in January, cost increases would rise at a high single-digit rate versus the previous single to low-digit forecast, and FY25 earnings margins should remain flat.

Neutral rating. Target $3.10.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.37
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.11, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -

UBS’ first take on Downer EDI’s earnings report notes that lower interest and tax expenses helped the company deliver a slightly better net profit after tax result.

Corporate costs fell by -10%, while Utilities and Power reported earnings growth of 26%, Transport 10%, and Facilities 10%.

The analyst sees the reinstatement of guidance by management as a positive for the company and its elevated cost-out program.

Management referred to "varied" market conditions, citing a weaker NZ economy and a reduction in Australian transport spending.

The outcome of the Defence tender is expected in 2H25.

Neutral rating. Target $5.75.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $5.55 Difference: $0.2
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DXI as Outperform (1) -

Dexus Industria REIT reported better-than-expected 1H25 funds from operations, exceeding Macquarie's forecast by 4% due to lower-than-anticipated net finance and other costs, the analyst explains.

Management reiterated FY25 guidance.

Macquarie appreciates the REIT’s exposure to the industrial sector alongside its robust balance sheet, with gearing at 27.7% and a development pipeline of $269m.

The broker raises the target price to $3.18 from $3.05. The Outperform rating is retained, with an attractive circa 6% dividend yield and the stock trading at a -20% discount to NTA.

Target price is $3.18 Current Price is $2.67 Difference: $0.51
If DXI meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.05, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining reported a better-than-expected 1H25 earnings report, beating Citi's estimate for underlying net profit.

The broker notes overall costs came in lower by -$50m than its own estimate. The interim 7c dividend per share was above the analyst's 6c estimate, and the dividend reinvestment plan has been reinstated, Citi notes.

Management reconfirmed the miner's largely un-hedged position and the gearing target of under 20% by the end of FY25 has been retained.

At this stage, Citi retains earnings estimates post-result and remains "bullish" on gold prices, seeing a US$2,600-US$3,000/oz price as sustainable.

Neutral rated. Target $6.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Underperform (5) -

Evolution Mining reported better-than-expected 1H25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation, exceeding Macquarie's forecast by 9% and consensus by 7%.

Management retained FY25 guidance with production of 710-780koz and all-in sustaining costs of $1,475-$1,575/oz. Year-to-date production stands at 52% of the midpoint, the broker explains, and costs are within guidance.

Macquarie attributes the better-than-anticipated result to deferred revenue and slightly lower net debt on reduced leases.

No change to the Underperform rating, the broker believes the stock is fully valued at current levels. Target price remains at $5.50.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley highlights a robust 1H25 earnings result from Evolution Mining, with earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation exceeding the broker’s forecast by 16% and consensus by 11%, largely due to better-than-anticipated revenue growth.

The announced dividend per share was also better than expected, and management reintroduced the dividend reinvestment plan at a -5% discount.

The broker notes that net debt rose to $1.482bn, above both forecast and consensus, with no change to guidance.

Equal-weight. Target price $5.55. Industry view: Attractive. Evolution Mining remains the preferred gold stock at Morgan Stanley.

Target price is $5.55 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.74 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates EVN as Downgrade to Lighten from Hold (4) -

Ord Minnett notes Evolution Mining capped off a strong 1H25 with net profit beating its forecast by 6% and consensus by 20%. Interim dividend of 7c beat the consensus of 5c but missed the broker's 8c forecast.

The broker sees potential capex risk associated with Ernest Henry Mining extension and Open Pit Continuation project, and increased its capex assumptions for FY26-27 to better align with management commentary.

Target price lowered to $5.30 from $5.35, and rating downgraded to Lighten from Hold on stretched valuation.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.99 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -

UBS raises its target for Evolution Mining to $5.45 from $5.40 following 1H results and downgrades to Sell from Neutral as the share price has surged ahead of the broker's valuation.

The analyst describes 1H earnings (EBITDA) of $985m as a "decent beat", and while profit was also stronger-than-expected some accounting changes contributed.

The 7 cent interim dividend beat expectations held by the broker and consensus.

As Evolution's copper production dilutes gold leverage, the broker suggests Northern Star Resources ((NST)) and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) currently offer better exposure to higher gold prices.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $6.29 Difference: minus $0.84 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $5.74, suggesting downside of -7.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates FFM as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Over 1,000m underground at the Green Bay Copper Gold Project in Canada, FireFly Metals has intersected 10.7m at 9.0% copper and 3.9g/t gold.

These results support management's strategy of growing the Resource overall while upgrading Inferred resources to Measured & Indicated, explains Shaw and Partners.

The broker remains a copper bull and FireFly Metals is its preferred development exposure.

Buy, High Risk. Target price $1.90, unchanged. No change to earnings forecast.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.935
If FFM meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IAG as Buy (1) -

In an early look at today's 1H result by Insurance Australia Group, Citi highlights an 8% EPS beat versus consensus, aided by a materially favourable weather variance of $215m, well ahead of the the broker's $165m estimate. Revenue growth disappointed.

A beter-than-expected underlying margin of 15.1% also contributed to the stronger result, note the analysts.

Insurance profit came in at $957m, beating the broker and consensus forecasts for $897m and $898m, respectively, while cash earnings of $640m were also ahead of the $605m forecast by consensus.

Management maintained its FY25 reported margin guidance, but is now pointing to the high-end of the range. An interim dividend of 12 cents was declared, missing the consensus expectation for 13.9 cents.

Target $9.65. Buy.

Target price is $9.65 Current Price is $8.92 Difference: $0.73
If IAG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IAG as Neutral (3) -

On first inspection, UBS highlights Insurance Australia Group reported 1H25 cash net profit after tax 1.5% above estimates and 5.7% higher than consensus, driven by lower CAT costs and better insurance margins with an improvement in the loss ratio, the broker explains.

Management has softened gross written premium guidance for FY25 due to weakening premium rate rises, which UBS suggests indicates a shift from margin expansion in 2H25.

The insurer generated "flat" volumes in Australia for home and motor insurance, with slight declines in NZ.

The analyst sees increasing competition for insurers, based on commentary from Insurance Australia Group and Suncorp Group ((SUN)), which is expected to limit earnings upside and expansion in ascribed valuations.

Neutral rating with a $9.15 target price.

Target price is $9.15 Current Price is $8.92 Difference: $0.23
If IAG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.85, suggesting upside of 13.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates IMD as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes Imdex's first-half revenue fell by -10% year-on-year due to sustained weakness in exploration activity, though earnings (EBITDA) margins remained stable as cost synergies offset negative operating leverage impacts.

These synergies stemmed from the Devico acquisition and an improved sales mix toward higher-margin sensors and SaaS products, according to the broker.

Bell Potter is encouraged by the operating margin outlook for gold majors, which could drive exploration activity in the short-to medium-term.

The broker raises the target price to $2.70 from $2.25 after lowering its assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and maintains a Hold rating.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If IMD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IMD as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -

Citi upgrades Imdex to Neutral from Sell, raising the target price to $2.85 from $1.95 following the 1H25 earnings report.

Citi believes Imdex delivered a "resilient" 1H25 result, with earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation slightly above expectations. The analyst highlights a higher percentage of R&D was capitalised.

Despite a soft backdrop in global exploration levels, the company generated a better-than-expected APAC result with improved margins well above estimates, leading to stronger-than-expected earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation.

Sensors and SaaS via the digital service showed good top-line growth. The broker notes the decline in revenue for the period as a negative, and cash conversion was lower than forecast.

Management does not provide guidance, but Citi explains sustained activity levels were flagged for the remainder of FY25, while industry sentiment was highlighted as improving and exploration levels are expected to turn in FY26.

Citi slightly raises earnings forecasts on better margins and a more positive business mix, with improved cost efficiency from management.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0
If IMD meets the Citi target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie views Imdex’s 1H25 earnings report as "solid," although a revenue decline of -10% was below forecast by -1%, but well above the -19% fall in global exploration drilling over 2024.

The broker highlights flat margins despite revenue pressures, attributed to operational and cost controls. Looking ahead, Imdex is seen as well positioned to benefit from higher-margin products and investments aimed at increasing operating efficiency.

Management expects activity levels to improve in FY26, with the US market identified as a key potential growth area as adoption of integrated solutions expands, the analyst states.

Macquarie raises EPS forecasts by 5% for FY25 and 10% for FY26, anticipating improvements in revenue and margins.

The target price increases to $2.90 from $2.20. No change to the Neutral rating.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.05
If IMD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates IMD as Add (1) -

Morgans previously believed the risk was skewed to the downside for Imdex's FY25 forecasts but changed its view following solid 1H result and material forex tailwinds to start 2H.

This, together with a capitalisation of certain R&D costs, makes FY25 forecasts look more achievable and shifts focus to FY26, the broker highlights.

Based on the trend established in junior miner raisings, the broker is now confident volumes will improve from FY26 onwards. As a result, the analyst lifted FY26 EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 2% and 4% respectively.

Target price rises to $3.2 from $2.4. Add rating maintained.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.35
If IMD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Imdex to $2.95 from $2.60 and maintains a Neutral rating following a further review of 1H results.

A summary of the broker's research penned yesterday follows.

UBS notes the 1H25 result from Imdex appears "fine" at first take, with the report sufficient to underpin the recent rally in the share price, the analyst states.

Revenue grew 1% on 2H24, while net profit after tax fell -19% on the previous corresponding period, meeting consensus expectations.

Management pointed to an increase in resource exploration budgets from Australian companies and expects better transparency in 3Q25 on other geographies, the broker notes. A positive outlook was flagged from FY26.

UBS highlights the consensus FY25 earnings forecast of $130m before interest, tax, and depreciation will require a 2H25 result of $66m, a rise of 11% year-on-year and 4% on 1H25.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $0.1
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Citi's first impressions on Orora's 1H result were mixed with a -6% miss on revenue offset by better depreciation. Overall, earnings (EBIT) from continuing operations of $121m fell short of the $128m forecast by consensus.

Softer revenues were partly driven by Saverglass, explains the broker, with volumes down around -13%.

While earnings margins for the standalone Cans business of between 15-16% appear comparable to global peers of 15-17%, and provide some potential upside for Orora, these same global peers have de-rated materially in the past six months, cautions the broker.

Regardless, the analyst views the Cans business as world class.

Management expects 2H EBIT will be in line with 2H FY24, implying to the analyst an around -8% miss versus consensus on a 2H/FY basis.

Neutral rating. Target $2.80.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.46
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, UBS notes Orora announced a "soft" 1H25 result, with management’s outlook suggesting downgrades to consensus estimates for earnings before interest and tax of around -7%.

Global Glass reported strong earnings growth of 41%, and Orora is reviewing Gawler production, taking a furnace offline, and shifting some manufacturing to the UAE. Management also plans to modernise the Ghlin glass manufacturing plant in Belgium.

The analyst highlights uncertainty around the recovery in Europe for Saverglass, though a pickup in orders suggests volumes may improve in 2H25.

Gawler is expected to report seasonally weaker volumes in 2H25, while Australian Cans is anticipated to see better volumes versus 2H24. Neutral rating. Target $2.57. The share buyback is to recommence following the market update. 

Target price is $2.57 Current Price is $2.34 Difference: $0.23
If ORA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.70, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Origin Energy's 1H group profit came in 4% ahead of the consensus forecast, driven by 9% higher Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA), despite Eraring outages, explains Citi in an early assessment of today's release.

A 20% beat on free cash flow (FCF) enabled the declaration a of 30 cent interim dividend, above the broker's and consensus forecasts for 28.5 cents and 27 cents, respectively.

Due to heavier investment in technology, explains Citi, Octopus guidance was reduced to a maximum $100m earnings contribution, from $100-$200m prior. Buy. Target $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.26 Difference: $1.24
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

While lower earnings (EBITDA) guidance for Octopus Energy will raise some red flags in the market, UBS assesses a "solid" 1H result by Origin Energy.

First half earnings of $1,926m compare to the broker's and consensus forecasts of $2,020m and $1,959m, respectively.

The 30 cent interim dividend exceeded respective forecasts of 28 cents and 27 cents by the analysts and consensus. Energy Markets earnings were also higher-than-expected

Buy. Target $11.90.

Target price is $11.90 Current Price is $10.26 Difference: $1.64
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting upside of 5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy (1) -

The analysts at Shaw and Partners came away from a recent site visit in Namibia highly confident management at Paladin Energy are well on top of early commissioning issues at Heinrich.

It's felt the market overreacted when alerted to these issues in the September quarter, 2024.

Plant recovery levels are in the high 80s, which the broker considers exceptional at this stage of commissioning, especially given the poor quality of ore feed from stockpiles.

Shaw and Partners retains Paladin as the preferred uranium stock with a Buy, High-Risk rating and $15.80 target price.

Target price is $15.80 Current Price is $8.38 Difference: $7.42
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.58, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PPT as Buy (1) -

Prior to 1H results for Perpetual, Bell Potter leaves most forecasts unchanged, but the analysts reduce the asumed dividend payout ratio to 65% from 75%, which lowers the broker's FY25 dividend forecast to $1.28 from $1.48.

The $25.40 target price and Buy rating maintained.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $22.70 Difference: $2.7
If PPT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.41, suggesting upside of 2.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QAN as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Macquarie downgrades Qantas Airways to Neutral from Outperform, raising the target price to $9.30 from $8.40.

Qantas is expected to report a strong 1H25 result, up around 21%, the broker explains, with tailwinds from lower oil prices, a buyback, and "optimal" load factors.

Trends from 2H24 are anticipated to continue, including Jetstar leading capacity growth in both domestic and international segments.

Macquarie expects load factors to reach 1H19 levels of around 80% for Qantas and 89% for Jetstar, maximising the return on assets.

The outlook for FY26 is tempered by currency headwinds and yield pressures from Europe and US routes, the analyst believes.

The broker lowers the FY25 EPS forecast by -0.9% and raises FY26 by 1.1%.

Target price is $8.40 Current Price is $9.51 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If QAN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.10, suggesting downside of -2.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RHC as Hold (3) -

Ramsay Health Care's trading update guided to a 1H25 net profit ahead of consensus estimates, excluding a -$291m write-down of its UK assets and release of a $65m tax provision in its Sante (French) assets.

The UK impairment charge and the Sante provision release will be taken in the 1H25 result accounts scheduled on 27 February.

Following the update, Ord Minnett made minor changes to its EPS forecasts, raising FY25 and FY26 estimates by 1.7% and 0.5% respectively. Hold rating and $41.45 target price are unchanged.

Target price is $41.45 Current Price is $34.48 Difference: $6.97
If RHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $41.84, suggesting upside of 23.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates S32 as Neutral (3) -

In a first glance at today's 1H result by South32, Citi assesses a solid performance though cost pressures remain. Earnings (EBITDA) of US$375m were in line with consensus, but beat the broker's forecast for US$322m.

FY25 production guidance was largely unchanged but unit cost guidance was raised. 

Group net debt decreased by -US$715m to US$47m due to the sale of metallurgical coal, offset by Hermosa capex, inclusive of a $267m build in working capital.

The interim dividend of US3.4 cents represents a modest beat against the consensus forecast for US3.2 cents.

Overall, Citi believes the result should have a neutral impact on South32's share price. Neutral rating. Target $3.90.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.47
If S32 meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.14, suggesting upside of 16.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SDR as Overweight (1) -

Ahead of SiteMinder’s 1H25 earnings report on February 26, Morgan Stanley expects a trading update and an update on the performance of the Smart Distribution product relative to its target revenue of $5m-$10m in 2H25, the broker details.

Positive execution on the product would be a positive for the company, while a delay would suggest a downgrade, the analyst states, as the market awaits the first tangible returns since the 2023 investor day.

Morgan Stanley expects the company to reiterate revenue guidance, which would imply a 3%-5% share price reaction.

The Overweight rating and $6.80 target remain unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $6.80 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $0.43
If SDR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.94, suggesting upside of 9.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

Suncorp Group's 1H25 net profit after tax came in above Citi's and consensus estimates due to favourable weather and a lower expense ratio, with less-than-anticipated reserve additions, the analyst notes.

The underlying margin at 11.8% met expectations, with FY25 guided to the upper end of the 10%-15% range. Consumer home gross written premium growth was 10.2% and motor 10.3%, largely resulting from rate rises, the broker states.

Citi points to the $4.1bn capital return as anticipated from the sale of the bank, with a fully franked special dividend of 22c per share, which was below forecast and consensus. The balance of $3.8bn will be returned via a share consolidation, Citi points out.

Target price lifts to $20 from $19.90. No change to Neutral rating.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SUN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley notes Suncorp Group reported a robust 1H25 result. Cash net profit after tax exceeded the analyst’s forecast by 1% and consensus by 11%, while the announced dividend per share was higher than estimated by 5% and 11%, respectively.

The broker highlights a capital return of $4.1bn from the bank sale, including a $3/share capital return to shareholders and a 22c special dividend. The share consolidation at an 85.11% ratio is expected in mid-March.

Suncorp’s underlying insurance margin of 11.8% was better than anticipated, and management guided to mid to high single-digit gross written premium growth in FY25, with margins at the upper end of the 10%-12% range.

The target price remains at $22.10. Overweight rating unchanged. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $22.10 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: $1.48
If SUN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SUN as Add (1) -

Morgans highlights Suncorp Group's 1H25 cash earnings were 10% above consensus, with the main driver being lower hazard claims than expected.

Overall, the broker believes the result was strong, accompanied by significant capital returns as expected, and FY25 key guidance parameters largely unchanged.

The broker lifted FY25 cash EPS forecasts by 9% on lower claims costs than expected but reduced FY26 by -3% on a lower buyback level than it envisaged.

Target price rises to $22.33 from $21.01. Add recommendation maintained.

Target price is $22.33 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: $1.71
If SUN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Accumulate (2) -

Suncorp Group's 1H25 earnings came ahead of market expectations, driven by gains in the bank division sale, a more favourable natural hazard claims experience and strong investment returns, Ord Minnett highlights.

Suncorp reiterated guidance for an underlying insurance trading ratio towards the top end of its 10–12% target range, which together with a lower expense ratio, will support margins, the broker notes.

The broker believes the company's comment on "robust capital position” means further capacity for capital management, with such initiatives likely to be on-market share buybacks.

The broker raised FY25 EPS forecast by 3% and lowered FY26 by -0.1%. Target price rises to $21.00 from $20.35. Accumulate rating maintained.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: $0.38
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates SUN as Neutral (3) -

UBS raises its target for Suncorp Group to $20.85 from $20.70 following 1H results. Neutral maintained.

FNArena's summary of yesterday's research by the broker follows.

Suncorp Group's 1H25 net profit after tax was above UBS' forecast by 2% and 10% above consensus, at first glance.

CAT costs came in under budget by -$277m and were slightly below the broker's forecast but better than consensus by $95m at $503m. The analyst views this factor as representing around 85% of the better-than-anticipated earnings.

NZ margins were better than expected, while Australia came in lower than forecast. The overall 11.8% insurance margin was stronger than estimated.

UBS believes upside earnings seem more muted as gross written premium is set to slow, and management expects insurance margins to be in line with 1H in 2H25.

Target price is $20.85 Current Price is $20.62 Difference: $0.23
If SUN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.55, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SWM as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Seven West Media's 1H25 operating earnings was a touch below its forecasts but this was likely a timing issue.

The company flagged an improvement in the advertising market in the current quarter which augurs well for revenue in 2H25, the broker notes.

Management commentary was noted as quite positive, with the potential for further advertising expenditure as the federal election looms.

Following the result, the broker has maintained its Buy rating and 21c target.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.03
If SWM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.18, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TPW as Buy (1) -

In a first impression of today's 1H result by Temple & Webster, Citi suggests the positive result may be partly offset by a weaker trading update.

Growth of 16% for January/February fell -23% short of the consensus sales growth expectations for H2. Citi partly reassures investors by noting sales trends are not linear and the company was cycling tough comparisons last year.

First half adjusted earnings (EBITDA) were 47% ahead of the broker's expectations, driven by a mix of gross profit margin expansion and a better cost outcome. Sales aligned with the analyst's expectation.

Management maintained FY25 earnings margin guidance at between 1-3%. Buy. Target $13.50.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: minus $0.78 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting downside of -22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TPW as Neutral (3) -

At first glance, Temple & Webster reported 1H25 earnings before interest, tax, and depreciation, as well as free cash flow above UBS’ expectations with cash on hand of $139m, around 9% above estimates.

Inventory was lower at $28.3m versus the analyst’s forecast of $31.3m and June 2024 levels of $26.5m. Gross margin increased by 66bps to 33.9%, also exceeding expectations.

Notably, growth in January-February has slowed based on management’s disappointing trading update, and UBS expects the company’s margin "buffer" to be used to support top-line growth.

The broker highlights that sales growth has dropped to an implied 16% in the first six weeks of 2H25, compared to 27%-28% in November-December.

Neutral rating. Target $11.80.

Target price is $11.80 Current Price is $14.28 Difference: minus $2.48 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $12.62, suggesting downside of -22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TWE as Buy (1) -

On first take, Citi notes Treasury Wine Estates reported 1H25 earnings before interest and tax 1% above consensus, while net profit after tax missed consensus by -9%.

Luxury growth reached 19%, driven by Penfolds and an upgrade in Daou synergies to US$35m from US$20m, the analyst details.

Slow demand for lower-priced wines weighed on net sales revenue in the premium and commercial segment, with the Americas experiencing the most notable decline of -28% alongside a drop in earnings margins.

In China, Penfolds' brand awareness continued to grow, though promotions were increased in 4Q24 to reduce stock.

Management's FY25 earnings guidance was at the lower end and below consensus due to weakened expectations for Treasury Premium Brands.

Buy rating. Target $12.97.

Post conference call with management, Citi analysts report the company seems to have increased confidence about its ability to sell into China based on brand health, depletion trends and customer demand.

This, the analysts suggest, might increase the likelihood the company takes price at some point, which would suggest upside to Penfolds' multi-year earnings guidance.

Target price is $12.97 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $1.82
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TWE as Buy (1) -

On first inspection of today's 1H results by Treasury Wine Estates, UBS highlights earnings (EBITS) of $391.4m slightly exceeded forecasts by the broker and consensus for $387m.

Penfolds performed above expectations while the Americas and Treasury Premium Brands (TPB) missed expectations held by the broker and consensus.

Disappointingly, notes the broker, management lowered earnings guidance to $780m from $780-810m (consensus $795m; UBS $790m) due to the weaker-than-expected TPB performance.

A 20 cent interim dividend was declared, aligning with the consensus forecast. Target $14.00. Buy.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.15 Difference: $2.85
If TWE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 29.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources